tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post2142159479861177061..comments2023-09-11T10:35:26.165-04:00Comments on The Flagrant Fan: NL East: A Fascinating Place: MetsWilliam J. Taskerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02313204947130235560noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-68592442343165404692012-02-18T13:47:12.579-05:002012-02-18T13:47:12.579-05:00Kokoda: All I can really say is huh???Kokoda: All I can really say is huh???Thomas Slocumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-41108131235930528892012-02-14T16:40:29.821-05:002012-02-14T16:40:29.821-05:00If the Mets aren’t horrible in 2012, that will hav...If the Mets aren’t horrible in 2012, that will have to count as a meaningful victory. Going around the horn offensively, Josh Thole will get some hits and get on base well but his slugging average probably won’t be half his OPS. Ike Davis might emerge as an offensive star (.290 with 25-30 home runs) on his team, or he might struggle to come back from injury. Daniel Murphy is slotted to be the regular second basemen, after all of 43 professional games of experience at the position. He seems to have a decent bat but with the caliber of play at the keystone position in the majors, he might well be just a bit over league average. Ruben Tejada won’t embarrass himself; he also won’t make anyone forget Jose Reyes. David Wright’s still in the prime of his career but he may well be tired of it all; if not, he’s one of the best at his position from every standpoint.<br /><br />Statistically, Lucas Duda might well be a younger version of Nick Swisher, at least with the bat and that’s not bad. Andres Torres may be a stopgap in centerfield; if 24 year old Kirk Nieuwenhuis gets off to a strong start in Buffalo Andres may find himself replaced (and why not?). And then there’s Jason Bay. Too much has been read into the incoming Citi Field fences on Jason’s behalf. His 2010 and 2011 seasons with the Mets have actually shown that his hitting problems come when he’s living out of his suitcase. Sure, he’ll hit a few more dingers at home but he will still have to suit up 81 times in someone else’s yard.<br /><br />As much as one would not want to go to war with the bunch above, the moundsmen really make one want to run and hide. If Johan Santana can come back from a lost year, and the two injury plagued years prior to that, he’s the de facto ace regardless of what he comes back with. After that, the Mets merely offer a collection of number 4 or 5 starters in the 2-5 slots. <br /><br />If Mike Pelfrey continues his 4 year on again, off again trend, 2012 should be an on year. But all that really means is a 9.5 H/9 instead of 10.5. Jonathon Niese doesn’t miss too many bats (10.1 H/9 over the past two years) but at 25 his other peripherals (2.5 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9 in 2011) and his lefthandedness perhaps offer some hope for the future. R.A. Dickey, the 37 year old knuckleballer, has probably been the Mets’ best pitcher the last two years but there’s not much future there. Dillon Gee, soon to be 26, didn’t miss bats in AAA (9.3 H/9) but also didn’t miss the plate that often (2.5 BB/9). He turned that around in the majors (8.1 and 4.0 respectively) for a relative push while finding strikeouts harder to come by (8.7/9 AAA, 6.1 Majors). 2012 will perhaps show if he’s on his way to becoming a mid-rotation starter or merely holding a place for a prospect. <br /><br />The two most likely closers, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, hardly offer premium closer stats. Combined in 2011, they converted 28 saves with a 4.21 ERA, 9.2 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 7.8 K/9. The starters will not rest easy when turning games over to this duo.<br /><br />As long as the Astros are in the league (which isn’t for much longer) the Mets should be able to avoid being the worst team in the NL. But it’s questionable whether or not they can hold off the Cubs and Padres (and a fairly safe bet they won’t be able to match even the Pirates or Rockies). This team will very likely struggle to win 70 games in 2012 and may well be more games behind the fourth place team in the NL East than that team is off the division lead.Thomas Slocumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-51281557561735018372012-02-14T08:26:23.574-05:002012-02-14T08:26:23.574-05:00Thanks, Bill. Hope the team gives you a few reason...Thanks, Bill. Hope the team gives you a few reasons to smile this coming season.William J. Taskerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02313204947130235560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-20039835953182420402012-02-13T19:49:27.069-05:002012-02-13T19:49:27.069-05:00As a Mets fan, I have to say that this piece was f...As a Mets fan, I have to say that this piece was fair and objective, as well as well researched. I do, unfortunately, see the Mets coming in last place with about 78 wins. As you say, it'll be a while before they turn this franchise around.<br />Good work, <br />BillBill Millerhttp://ondeckcircle.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.com