tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post8913435690274385462..comments2023-09-11T10:35:26.165-04:00Comments on The Flagrant Fan: Yankees Rotation Options for 2012William J. Taskerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02313204947130235560noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-16510172476188060652011-11-10T18:23:50.997-05:002011-11-10T18:23:50.997-05:00Sliders are the hardest pitch on pitcher's arm...Sliders are the hardest pitch on pitcher's arm and since that was his out pitch, it's worrisome with that forearm strain in the playoffs. He has great presence and good make up. We'll just have to see how he builds or regresses from here.William J. Taskerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02313204947130235560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-74794201855057683722011-11-10T14:42:23.677-05:002011-11-10T14:42:23.677-05:00William: Let me amend my brief discourse on Ivan ...William: Let me amend my brief discourse on Ivan Nova (as to the likelihood that regression is in the offing).<br /><br />While there's no reason whatsoever to expect a winning percentage of .800 again (which, if you're old enough to remember, was a league leading rate back in 1969 when Jim Palmer also went 16-4), Ivan's harnessing (and more regular use of) his slider in the 2nd half allowed him to improve not only the normal counting stats (wins, W/L percentage, ERA) but also ALL his peripherals (% improvements across the board):<br />H/9 DOWN 17.5% (to a very respectable, even excellent, 7.94)<br />K/9 UP 14.6% (though still only 5.74)<br />BB/9 DOWN 32.8% (to a Fritz Peterson - remember him - like level of 2.44 - maybe not Roy Hallady or Cliff Lee rates but still very good)<br />WHIP DOWN 21.7% (to a fine 1.154)<br />K/BB UP 70.3% (to a decent 2.35, particularly for a pitcher with relatively low K totals)<br />HR/9 DOWN 44.3% (from nearly 1 per 9 innings to just under 1/2 per 9)<br /><br />In other words, if Ivan's 2nd half is indicative of growth, adjustments, and added experience, he is already the Yank's #2 starter. All his numbers (for his 2nd half) save K/9 and K/BB are superior to Phil Hughes "breakout" 2010 season, and the latter is barely better.<br /><br />Still, caution is probably the watchword. ML history is littered with those unable to build on a fine closing half. But Nova's poise and unflappability may be just the intangibles needed to help him maintain those 2nd half levels over a full season in 2012. What do you think?Thomas Slocumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-91072084002858040572011-11-10T13:57:43.972-05:002011-11-10T13:57:43.972-05:00William: Thanks for the compliment. The Yanks ju...William: Thanks for the compliment. The Yanks just haven't had a lot of luck with starting pitching for at least the last 10 years (probably more), whether free agent, trades, or homegrown. Indeed, C.C. Sabathia seems to be the exception that proves the rule, others including Jeff Weaver, Javier Vazquez, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano and, going back a bit further, the infamous Ed Whitson). The last three were questionable (at best) additions at the time but Weaver and Vazquez (the first time) had every sign of being intelligent and important acquisitions - young, good track record of success at the major league level (though Vazquez' was in the lesser league). Who knew?<br /><br />Phil Hughes may yet prove to be the best homegrown starter since Andy Pettitte (but what a time period gap that will be, huh?). I'm afraid Joba, injury aside, was, as the 2009 Baseball Prospectus observed, killed with kindness (Joba rules 1.0 and 2.0). Andrew Brackman's success zenith is in his future but it may be in the Atlantic League at best. And who (amongst NYY fans) can forget the ill-fated Brien Williams and his confusing major league ball with the WWF?<br /><br />Shoot me an email sometime at trslocum771@gmail.com; there's nothing I enjoy more than discoursing about the Yanks, and major league ball in general.Thomas Slocumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-25307908606372471792011-11-09T13:42:10.429-05:002011-11-09T13:42:10.429-05:00Great comments, Thomas. Hard to argue with any of ...Great comments, Thomas. Hard to argue with any of that.William J. Taskerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02313204947130235560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5132588.post-54370197676882120542011-11-09T12:43:54.433-05:002011-11-09T12:43:54.433-05:00Not much to get excited about down on the farm, is...Not much to get excited about down on the farm, is there? Adam Warren looks more like those pitch-to-contact, low strikeout pitchers the Twins and Pirates seem to favor; David Phelps may whiff a few more but he misses fewer bats than Warren; Shaeffer Hall is mostly an ouch! Almost 11 hits per 9 at the High A and AA levels (though had one, and JUST one, good start at AAA); D.J. Mitchell may be Adam Warren's slightly older, slightly wilder twin. <br /><br />Still, any one of them may have the ability to step up the same way that Ivan Nova did in 2011 (his minor league stats were not that dissimilar to those of the quartet above). On the other hand, Nova may regress notably as those of his ilk (high hits, low K's) are known to do.<br /><br />Best bet? The Yanks use their most valuable resource (money) to wrap up C.J. Wilson for 5 years, knowing full well that may be 2-3 more than they'd like to have him (shades of another who goes by his initials, huh?). And they're likely to hang onto Freddie for one more year. And, unless the allegedly high-ceiling prospects Betances and Banuelos get their stuff under control, this whole thing may be repeated every year for who knows how long.Thomas Slocumnoreply@blogger.com