Friday, March 27, 2015

The DH - Where I get NL fans mad at me again

National League fans are adamant, and I get it. We baseball people do not like people messing with our game. Even though replay worked great (IMHO) this past year, many still hate it because it takes away the "charm" of human error. But that human error cost teams World Series titles in the past. NL fans, pitchers batting has got to go. It doesn't cost games, but it sure costs enjoyment.
Let's break this down a bit into numbers. NL pitchers when batting as a group did not have as high an OPS as what is borderline acceptable as an on-base percentage. The group OPS of all NL pitchers last season was .312. OPS combines on-base percentage with slugging percentage. This is a terrible number.
How terrible? The league as a whole had an average OPS of .694. Therefore, collectively, pitchers' offense was 45% as good as league batters as a whole. NL pitchers when batting struck out 36.4% of their plate appearances. Pitchers walked only 3% of the time. And here is the part that gets me the most: Pitchers sacrificed bunted (successfully) 10.2% of their plate appearances.
Let's put some of this in perspective. NL pitchers came to the plate 5,141 times last year. They actually reached base a grand total of 722 times. That works out to an on-base percentage of .140. Let me clarify that point briefly. NL pitchers' official on-base percentage was .156. Why am I getting a different number? Sacrifice bunts.
An OBP and an OPS do not penalize a player for successful sacrifice bunts (or for sac flies for that matter). I have never agreed with this statistical anomaly. Whether a sacrifice is successful or not, the batter made an out. Yes, a runner got to second or third, but an out was still recorded.
Those numbers are bad enough. But there are other consequences. Pitchers having to bat means a greater reliance on pinch hitters. National League pinch hitters put up this unlovely triple slash line in 2014: .210/ .286/.319. That .605 OPS is second to only pitchers in futility among "positions." Their help only brought up the ninth spot in the lineup up to a grand total of a .444 OPS. Pinch hitters struck out 27% of the time. Heck, the pitcher could have done that!
It doesn't stop there.  The eighth place batter in a National League lineup becomes a moot point. The National League had a combined .625 OPS from the eighth spot in the batting order. Compare that with the American League which had a .680 OPS from their eighth position in the batting order.
Oh, and get this: That OPS is deceptive too. With the pitchers batting ninth, the eighth place batter often gets intentionally walked even if it is a weak hitter. The eighth place batters had fifty more intentional walks than any other lineup position, even the big boys in the third spot.
We are not really talking apples to apples here, but the National League scored 561 runs less than the American League in 2014.
If the commissioner is interested in improving offense and is concerned about the current run scoring climate, making the DH universal is a good place to start and is much better than outlawing shifts.
The long-term trends of pitcher batting have shown a gradual decline. Sacrifice bunts are up four percentage points from where they were in the early 1960s. OPS figures have stayed fairly static since 1961, but again, with sacrifice bunts trending up, the OPS is deceptive. The strikeout rate has always been high, but has spiked the last two seasons. The chart below starts with the 1961 season on the left and tracks the percentages to the present as you move right.
Pitchers batting
This decline makes a lot of sense really. In the old days, a pitcher would bat consistently through high school, college and the minor leagues. Today, most colleges use the DH and if a pitcher is drafted by an American League team, then the pitcher never hits. If that same pitcher gets traded to a National League organization, suddenly he has to hit and it might have been a few years since high school.
Plus, pitchers are much more valued (read "babied") than in the past. Most pitchers are encouraged to protect themselves when batting and not to run at full strength.
The weekly reality of interleague games also puts new wrinkles into the entire argument. National League teams are not constructed to have an offensive player available as the DH and suffers in AL parks. And if you think NL pitchers are terrible at batting, they are all Mike Trout compared to AL pitchers who have to hit in NL parks.
American League pitchers put together this triple slash line when batting last year: .090/.110/.109. In 154 such games, AL pitchers got on base a grand total of 35 times. It is a joke and a travesty to baseball. Making AL pitchers hit is like asking an NFL punter to play one game a year at offensive tackle. AL pitchers have a strikeout rate of over 40% when batting. Pathetic.
If you make the DH the norm for all interleague games, you are punishing NL teams that do not plan roster spots for DH types. So that doesn't make for an easy solution.
I know there is a lot of passion in this area of conversation. I'm sure two of my friends who cover the St. Louis Cardinals are glaring at me as they read this. But times have changed. Tickets cost too much to have to watch a woefully skilled batter being sent up to the plate. Times have also changed in college and in the minor leagues. Pitchers had a chance at the plate sixty years ago. They do not now. It is time to make things universal instead of the two leagues playing with different rules.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Valdespin and Andrus: Youth is Wasted on the Young

The quote in the heading by George Bernard Shaw could also be modified as, "Talent is Wasted on the Young." Two different stories have caught my attention this spring. Both involve the people behind the baseball players.
The first story  caught my attention early in Spring Training and involved Elvis Andrus being in the best shape of his life (BSOL). And the second story was much more recent concerning Jordany Valdespin and how his mother told him to grow up. Andrus is 26 and Valdespin is 27.
It is easy to forget that baseball players reach their physical peak early in life. We also fail to understand that most males do not reach their maturity peak until much later. I used to tell my son that boys were always three years younger (in maturity) than their actual ages. Sometimes that is optimistic.
And yet for every Mike Trout who bursts onto the scene with nothing but determination and a level head, there are a dozen others that don't figure it out until much later. The result is losing a lot of time and talent and sometimes it is too late.
Let's start with Elvis Andrus as his is perhaps the less harsh story of the two. Andrus has been a millionaire since the age of 23. When he signed a long-term deal with the Rangers that runs unti 2022, his future became secure and he had nothing but years of money heading his way.
Andrus' reaction to that was him coming to Spring Training a year ago really out of shape. I am not being unfair here, he says it himself. As such, he wasn't ready to play and ended up having the worst year of his career when he should have been peaking as a player.
Andrus has been in the spotlight since he arrived in the Majors. The arrival coincided with the Rangers having great teams and making two World Series in a row. Andrus wanted to be talked about in the same breath as Jeter. But it never happened. While he was a much better fielder than Jeter ever was, his offense has been below league average for every season he's been in the Majors.
It appears that last season made the bell go off and he went into the off season with a plan and is having a fabulous spring. This could be the year that he actually becomes the offensive player it was thought he could be.
It's just a shame that it took him so long to figure that out.
Jordany Valdespin has an even harsher story. The Mets were excited about his talent and either thought he would be the team's future second baseman or a weapon as a super-utility type player. The trouble was, the young man was poison to his fellow players.
Valdespin has a track record of immaturity which included altercations with his manager when he didn't play or was sent to the minors. And when he did play, he angered his teammates by showboating. His results definitely show a guy who should not have been showboating.
How bad was the antipathy with his fellow Mets? When he got caught up in the Biogenesis scandal and was suspended for fifty games, his own teammate said the incident, "definitely confirms his stupidity." Ouch.
Valdespin handled the adversity the way most immature young people do. He wanted to quit after the suspension in 2013. He was frustrated. He probably felt that where he landed was everyone else's fault.
That's when his mom stepped in. She did what every decent parent has to do at some point in the life of their child. She told him to grow up. To his credit, he took that advice and accepted it.
The Miami Marlins gave him another chance. And he is having a great spring and will make the decision on whether to keep him in the Big Leagues a tough one for the Marlins. I find myself rooting for him...and for Andrus.
You have to root for someone who finally gets it. Andrus is guaranteed to be a rich man. Jordany Valdespin is fighting for his baseball life. Both have wasted their prime years and a serious chunk of talent by their immaturity.
But that's what makes this game interesting if you care to think about it. We are talking about human beings here. And human beings who try to improve themselves and grow up are human beings to root for and make an interesting story in counterpoint to the cold, harsh reality of statistics and results.
Talent is often wasted on the young. That happens. Some take longer to figure it out. Some never figure it out. Elvis Andrus and Jordany Valdespin have apparently figured it out. I hope they are rewarded with the the physical time they have left in the game. If they never get where they were supposed to become, at least it won't be because they were their own worst enemies.