Thursday, May 23, 2019

Best Reliever Seasons Of All Time

I was thinking one night about the greatest MLB teams I had seen in my lifetime. The 1998 Yankees, of course, was one of  those thoughts. But there was also the Big Red Machine with Bench, Morgan, etc. The 2001 Diamondbacks, the 2004 and 2018 Red Sox teams were thoughts. And then I thought of the 1984 Detroit Tigers. I went to look at baseball-reference.com about that team and the thing that blew my mind was the tandem of Aurelio Lopez and Willie Hernandez in the bullpen. Hernandez won the Cy Young Award that season and between those two pitchers, they won 19 games and saved 46 others. Doug Bair was also part of that amazing bullpen. According to B-R, Hernandez rated a 4.8 rWAR that season. Where did that stand all time? So I did a search.

First of all, let me state plainly that B-R and fangraphs.com rate relief pitchers totally different. As we will see later, Mariano Rivera's 1996 was given 5.0 rWAR, but fangraphs.com gave him 3.0. So I am featuring a list based on one site's valuations.

I also discovered that relief pitching has changed drastically in the last thirty years. Guys like Goose Gossage and Dick Raditz pitched in eras that were totally alien to today's MLB reality. That makes their rWAR records untouchable unless the game reverts back--which it may as all things are cyclical. So I made a list of the best rWAR totals all time and will do another list for pitchers from 1995 to today.

To be considered for this list, I defined a relief pitching season as to where all the appearances were in relief with no games started at all. First, here is the All-Time list followed by some comments and then the "modern" list from 1995 to today.  The figures going across will be the rWAR, the year, the player, the team, the games pitched, innings, ERA/FIP, OPS+ against. Here goes...

1.  8.2 - 1975 - Goose Gossage - White Sox - 62 - 141.2 - 1.84/2.62 - 56
2.  7.9 - 1973 - John Hiller - Tigers - 65 - 125.2 - 1.44/2.25 - 48
3.  7.3 - 1986 - Mark Eichhorn - Blue Jays - 69 - 157 - 1.72/2.31 - 47
4.  6.6 - 1977 - Bruce Sutter - Cubs - 62 - 107.1 - 1.34/1.61 - 31
5.  6.2 - 1967 - Ted Abernathy - Reds - 70 - 103.1 - 1.27/2.30 - 32
6.  6.1 - 1979 - Jim Kern - Rangers - 71 - 143 - 1.57/2.63 - 49
6.  6.1 - 1964 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 79 - 157 - 2.29/2.62 - 62
8.  6.0 - 1977 - Goose Gossage - Pirates - 72 - 133 - 1.62/2.50 - 38
9.  5.7 - 1980 - Doug Corbett - Twins - 73 - 136.1 - 1.98/3.06 - 52
9.  5.7 - 1963 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 66 - 132.1 - 1.97-2.18 - 62
11. 5.6 - 1979 - Sid Monge - Indians - 76 - 131 - 2.40/3.46 - 67
12. 5.5 - 1983 - Dan Quisenberry - Royals - 69 - 139 - 1.94/2.86 - 52
13. 5.4 - 1982 - Greg Minton - Giants - 78 - 123 - 1.83/3.38 - 81
13. 5.4 - 1962 - Did Raditz - Red Sox - 66 - 124.2 - 2.24/2.30 - 68
15. 5.3 - 1979 - Aurelio Lopez - Tigers - 61 - 127 - 2.41/3.57 - 65

Willie Hernandez's season of 1984 was the 22nd highest rWAR of all time according to this list.

The Goose Gossage story is interesting. He had that record-breaking season in 1975. Then the White Sox tried to make him a starter in 1976. It did not work out well. Gossage wasn't terrible, but his record was. After that season, the White Sox traded him to the Pirates where he went back to relief and had the eighth best season according to this evaluation method.

Dick Raditz did not have a long career, but for three years was what Mickey Mantle called, "That Monster." Consider that the 1964 Red Sox won only 71 games and yet, Raditz pitched in nearly half their games (79) and was a part of 63% of the team's wins. He later had a case of what Rick Ankiel dealt with and could no longer throw strikes. He died in 2005 after falling down a flight of stairs. Raditz, along with Ryne Duren, were the first two relief pitchers to average more than ten strikeouts per nine innings in a season.

I mentioned earlier that today's game is radically different than the 1960s and 1970s baseball. The dominant closers and setup men have become the Holy Grail for all teams. So, to honor the new era, these are the most valuable relief seasons since 1995.

1.  5.0 - 2006 - Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox - 59 - 58.1 - 0.92/2.15 - 18
2.  5.0 - 1996 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 61 - 107.2 - 2.09/1.88 - 24
3.  4.5 - 1999 - Keith Foulke -  White Sox - 67 - 105.1 - 2.22/2.84 - 40
4.  4.4 - 2000 - Gabe White - Reds/Rockies - 68 - 84 - 2.36/2.71 - 35
5.  4.3 - 2008 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 64 - 70.2 - 1.40/2.30 - 10
5.  4.3 - 2007 - Rafael Betancourt - Indians - 68 - 79.1 - 1.47/2.22 - 26
7.  4.2 - 2018 - Blake Trienen - Athletics - 68 - 80.1 - 0.78/1.82 - 18
7.  4.2 - 2016 - Zack Britton - Orioles - 69 - 67 - 0.51/1.94 - 17
7.  4.2 - 2004 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 74 - 78.2 - 1.94/2.82 - 50
7.  4.2 - 2002 - Octavio Dotel - Astros - 83 - 97.1 - 1.85/2.43 - 35

Mariano Rivera also had another 4.0 rWAR season. Rivera's OPS+ figure of 10 seemed remarkable to me. So I did another search on any pitcher with over 50 innings pitched and a 10 OPS+ against or lower. This might be another way to indicate the best relieving season of all time. It turns out that there have only been five such seasons. They are, from bestest to best:

1.  Craig Kimbrel - 2012 - Braves - 1 (!)  Truly remarkable
2.  Eric Gagne  - 2003 - Dodgers - 4    Maybe it was steroid aided, but still!
3.  Koji Uehara - 2013 - Red Sox - 8    He was unhittable that year
4.  Billy Wagner - 1999 - Astros - 10   The most underrated reliever ever
4.  Mariano Rivera - 2008 - Yankees - 10

So what do you think? Which stat better states the best reliever season of all time?  I think it would be hard to argue about Craig Kimbrel's 2012. He struck out 50% of the batters he faced that season in a season where his WHIP was 0.654. 

Monday, May 20, 2019

The Yankees This Week - Road Games With Orioles and Royals

I started writing these weekly previews on April 22 and the Yankees have gone 17-7 since that point. They had a record of 11-10 at the time. Being the superstitious sort when it comes to baseball, I figured I had best be faithful to continue writing them. Yeah, sure. Like I am the reason for their run to first place. Ha! But the mind works in foolish ways. And yes, I hear Stevie Wonder's "Superstition" playing in the background. The Yankees simply have to execute this week as this week on the road features two weak teams.

Tonight starts another four game series with the Orioles, this time in Baltimore. Camden Yards is a fun place for the Yankees to hit and the Orioles have only won two of their last eleven. That said, the Yankees again face Andrew Cashner tonight and he has pitched really well in three of his last four outings. Cashner has struck out twenty batters in his last sixteen innings. The team lost all four of those games, however, and Cashner is pretty much a lock to allow at least one home run in every game.  JA Happ will need to be in better form as Cashner should keep his team in the game.

Tomorrow is a much better match up for the Yankees as Domingo German looks to continue his winning ways against the gopher-yielding David Hess. The rest of the series pitchers have not been announced but the Yankees will probably see Dylan Bundy late in the week and he was really great in his last start.

The Yankees need at least three wins in this series and a sweep would be fantastic. A split would be a major disappointment against such a highly struggling team.

The Kansas City Royals have just as many losses (31) as the Orioles. The Royals have lost nine of their last thirteen games. The Royals have many nice pieces. Alex Gorden is having a nice season and loves batting against the Yankees. Hunter Dozier and Whitt Merrifield are accomplished hitters having good seasons. And it appears that Adalberto Mondesi is a blossoming star at shortstop. Jorge Solar is a three-outcome hitter and leads the team in homers. But he has already struck out over 60 times.

The real loss for the Royals was Salvador Perez. His loss to Tommy John Surgery for the season seriously weakened them. His replacements, Martin Maldonado and Cam Gallagher, have been black holes at the plate. Think Austin Romine but much worse. Not a pretty picture, eh?

First base has also been a real problem for the Royals. Lucas Duda was not hitting and is now hurt.  His replacement, Ryan O'Hearn has not yet found his Big League stroke.

Overall the Royals are ninth in the AL in offense. Not terrible but not great either. It is a team that likes to run and they lead the AL in caught stealing. But the Yankees have problems with base runners.

The starting pitching is where the Royals break down. They do not have a shut down starter or power arms. Only two teams in the AL have walked more batters and only one has given up more hits. Danny Duffy never became the star the Royals hoped he'd be, but he is probably the team's best starter.

The bullpen has three guys (old friend, Ian Kennedy is one) having decent seasons, but whenever there is a Wily Peralta to exploit then the bullpen does not scare you. They do not strike out a lot of batters (except for Jake Diekman) and the team's five saves are the lowest in the AL. It has been a bit sad to see Brad Boxberger's comeback effort not producing anything positive.

Like the Orioles series, a two out of three outcome against the Royals would be acceptable. A sweep would be awesome. Losing two out of three would be a major disappointment. The Yankees should go 5-2 this week. They very well could win six of seven or even all seven. But 5-2 will do it.

What to watch for this week

  • With a long stretch of games without a day off, how many off days will Aaron Boone and company give his players? I think there will be more than what is comfortable. And it will continue to give me constipation.
  • Clint Frazier has been stone cold since he came back from the DL. He was so hot before the ankle sprain. It is a shame. Frazier needs to hit. 
  • CC Sabathia needs two more wins to reach 250 for his career. I really feel like that is an important number for him to reach. Run support has been difficult in his starts. The Yankees need to get this done! 249 this week!?
  • The Red Sox are playing the Blue Jays and Astros this week. They already picked up a win today. They should win four games this week. 
  • The Bay Rays have a tough week against the Dodgers and Indians. They might have difficulty winning four games this week.
  • Five wins will extend the Yankees' hold on first place.