Joe Torre - Bullpen Killer?

As any reader knows, Joe Torre has long been a Fan favorite. The guy just seems to have more class in his little finger than all managers have in their entire bodies. But he certainly has gained a reputation in recent years for being a bullpen killer. Critics point to the Scott Proctors of the world that litter Torre's past. Guys like Tronsoco on the current Torre team seem to bring new fuel to the Torre reputation. But is it accurate?

Joe Torre has cemented a Hall of Fame career by finding a horse he can ride as the set up guy and his closer. The championships in New York were built that way with Rivera, first as the set up guy and then as the closer. The formula worked. But Torre also seems to have a couple of key other guys that he has faith in and runs them out there as often as possible. If he loses faith in a pitcher, that guy hardly pitches. With Tronsoco this year pitching before his closer in Jonathan Broxton, Torre tries to continue the pattern.

Both guys were brilliant early on and Broxton made the All Star team as a first year closer. At the time, he only had one blown save and an ERA under one. Broxton has now blown five saves and has an ERA over three. Tronsoco has also regressed some since that time. But Broxton has 50 appearances so far and that is right in line with the average for closers (Rivera has 51). The key here though is that this is Broxton's first year at doing this. Perhaps Sherrill should give Broxton a week off or something. Tronsoco has 58 appearances, which is in the top 25 in the league, but not near the top. But again, this is his first year in such a high stress environment.

The top 25 list of appearances would seem to indicate that Torre does not earn his reputation. Only two of his pitchers appear on the list. The Cubs have three on that list. But that's only part of the story. The Dodgers are third in the league in games for relievers behind the Nationals and the Marlins. More importantly, they hold a big lead in the league in relief pitchers getting more than three outs in an outing. The Dodgers have 116 of those. The next closest team has 86. Naturally, they also lead the league in relief pitchers pitching multiple innings.

There are two problems for the Dodgers that lead to this situation. First, their starters--two of which are young and throw a lot of pitches--average the second lowest innings per game in the National League. And yet, they are in the middle of the pack of pitches thrown by starters per game. That means that the relievers have more work to do per game. The Dodgers' relievers have had to record 3.4 innings of relief every game. That's a lot of innings. The second problem is that, yes, Joe Torre will go with a hot hand until the guy's arm falls off.

Just ask Scott Proctor.

Game Picks - Sunday: August 16, 2009

Yesterday was weird. First, this picker completely missed the Nationals' game. And that was a shame, because it would have been correct. And that one correct pick would have made a lot of difference. The other part of the equation was a rain out in Florida. That would have been another correct pick and the day would have looked a lot better.

But it's okay. It wasn't a great day, but it wasn't a bad one either. The Fan fell to third for the week at BallHype. Told you. The old nemesis, OrioFan8, is 28-25 for the week and has 23.1 points. The Fan is 41-26 and has 14 points. Something wrong with that picture, no? But the Fan wouldn't be a responsible picker if all he did was pick underdogs to get the points. It's a question of honor and value to the Fan's readers.

With that in mind, here are today's picks:

• The Tigers over the Royals: Not a great pitching match up here, but the Tigers need to beat the weak Royals to press their case for the division.
• The Mets over the Giants: Picking Pelfrey at home over the Giants and Sanchez.
• The Nationals over the Reds: Two good looking young pitchers in Lannon versus Lehr. If the pitching match up is even, go with the better hitting team.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: Volstad versus Cook. Again, it was thought that Cook was going to miss this start. So there is skeptics there.
• The Angels over the Orioles: The Angels should win big despite a rookie pitching. Guthrie is terrible again.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Garza should pick up the win here.
• The Astros over the Brewers: The Brewers are trying to put a run together, but it's a bit late for that. The Cardinals are not going to be caught.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: Not feeling for the Red Sox with Tazawa pitching.
• The Indians over the Twins: Did you notice the Fan went against his instincts yesterday and finally got a Twins' game right? Can we make it two in a row?
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Richard looks good but Holliday has come to life and is earning a nice fat payday.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: Ohlendorf reminds the Fan of those days long ago in Strat-O-Matic baseball when the Fan would ride one obscure pitcher all the way to a pennant.
• The White Sox over the Athletics: Danks has been shaky lately, but Cahill has been shakier.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dodgers had their hearts broken in the ninth yesterday. They bounce back today.
• The Mariners over the Yankees: Chamberlain is listed as the Yankees' starting pitcher, but he's been given the week off (or so the Fan read). That means a spot start by somebody frightening.
• The Rockies over the Marlins: The second game of the day/night double header (hate those).
• The Braves over the Phillies: Great match up of Happ versus Vazquez. Going with Vazquez.

Yesterday: 7-6
Week: 53-39
Month: 104-97

Boston Red Sox Doing a Rope-A-Dope?

With a loss to the Rangers, the Red Sox are now in second place in the American League East AND only a half a game ahead for the wild card. Of course, there are a lot of games left to be played, but did anyone see Boston having any point in this season where they weren't solidly in first for one of those two spots? What is happening here?

The Red Sox were valued so highly because their pitching was considered the best in baseball. But suddenly, the back end of the rotation is in tatters and the bullpen is struggling. The rotation was considered the deepest in baseball. But then Dice-K went down. Wakefield came up with a bad back. Brad Penny has showed that his Dodgers year last year wasn't a fluke. Masterson has come and gone. Smoltz has come and gone. And Jon Lester can't seem to get by the third ups of the line up. Beckett has been the sole standout and nobody saw that coming.

The Red Sox offense came up less than expected last year. And this year seems even worse. They have not gotten any offense at short. Their right-fielder has been a Stange Drew and last checked, was hitting below .250. The Ortiz saga has been well chronicled and though he has looked better in the last month, he's still batting .219. Pedroia isn't hitting with power like last year. Youkilis is having a good year by many standards except by his own. And Varitek?

Argue all you want, but the Red Sox captain has a higher slugging percentage than last year, but he's still hitting only .238. And on Friday night, the Rangers ran all over him and his pitchers to the tune of eight stolen bases. Eight! Without a single caught stealing in the mix. That's the second or third time this season that a team has run wild on old Tek. Either he isn't the defensive catcher (anymore at least) that he is supposed to be, or the pitching coach needs to teach his pitchers how to hold runners on. Oops. Just read a story that said the Bay Rays had eight stolen bases against the Red Sox (and Varitek) on May 3, and these same Rangers had six thefts on July 22.

Friday night, the Red Sox pitchers gave up 17 base runners in eight innings of work. And once they were ahead, the Rangers brought in new whiz kid, Neftali Feliz, and the Red Sox had no defense against him. The Red Sox are suddenly like Superman after exposure to Kryptonite. Lois better get that stuff away from them soon.

Game Picks - Saturday: August 15, 2009

This picker fell back to earth last night as several things went wrong with the picks. The Orioles exploded against the Angels. Greinke again didn't allow a run and once again, his team didn't score any. And then, in his infinite wisdom, Hillman brings in Colon to seal the loss. And once again, those confounded Twins did it again. They are, without pause, the most frustrating team on earth. Baker, who got pounded twice in a row (both picks were for him), threw a gem (when the pick was against him). Truly amazing.

The Fan also fell to second place on BallHype. No surprise there. Oh well, we need to get these picks going as the first tee is calling the Fan's name.

• The Pirates over the Cubs: This pick looks good unless the Cubs score a dozen runs since Gorzelanny is starting for the Cubs.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Gio Gonzalez has been good his last two starts and he is the type of pitcher that can get geezers out.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Hamels versus Kawakami. Not feeling the Braves in that match up.
• The Mets over the Giants: Great match up of Cain versus Santana. Santana was dealing it last time out. Thinking he does it again here.
• The Indians over the Twins: Okay. The Fan is so messed up on the Twins, he thinks they should win, so they will lose. Right?
• The Marlins over the Rockies: The program lists Vanden Hurk versus Cook. But wasn't Cook hurt and didn't the story say he could miss a start? Therefore, Marlins.
• The Brewers over the Astros: The Brewers have come alive and scored like fifty runs their last two games. Moehler has to look mighty sweet to those swatters.
• The Angels over the Orioles: Lackey versus a kids. These are the kinds of games that just drive you crazy.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Yeah, if the Royals couldn't score against a mediocre pitcher, how are they going to score against Jackson?
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Tallet versus Kazmir. Kazmir has been okay lately. Where has Tallet been?
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Pineiro has been looking like he is tired, but the Padres are dead in the water.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: Penny should get hit by the Rangers' lineup. The wild card here is Holland, who has sucked most of the year but was unhittable last time out. Oy.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dodgers simply are the better team when the pitching match up is about even.
• The Mariners over the Yankees: The Yankees throw Mitre out there again. Ugh.

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 46-33
Month: 97-91

Boner Medicine

Normally in the FanDome, we try to keep things PG rated (nodding to eyeb), but a recent and very entertaining post by the great Joe Posnanski brought up (hint pun) one of this writer's most enduring irritants. It's only somewhat baseball related because these guys spend millions of dollars advertising on baseball telecasts. But then again, they spend millions advertising on all sports events, local news, national news and just about everywhere else. Yes, we're talking about boner medicine.

The Fan is somewhat sensitive to this topic because late in life, the Fan became the dad of an angel of a girl who is now thirteen years old. Fortunately (confused if that is fortunate or not), she thinks the commercials are gross. But the point is, why should she have to endure them? Why do any of us have to?

As Mr. Posnanski points out, there is no getting around the warnings to call a doctor immediately if your erection lasts more than four hours. There is no getting around the whole point of these commercials that erections are the issue at hand (that was an unfortunate pun). Okay, it's understood that some men have a problem in this area. And it's a good thing that our grandfathers have a new shot at some fun, that is, as long as we don't have to picture it or think about that concept very much. But really, why do we have to endure these blooming commercials day in and day out?

And who writes these things? The Fan's wife thinks men do and the Fan thinks that women do. Either way, they are pretty ridiculous. The first thing that comes to mind is those dang Cialis bath tubs. Who on G-d's green earth actually thinks that sitting in separate tubs (on the beach, in a garden, in a field, in a mountain) would be romantic? How do they get the water in there? Wouldn't it be more romantic and useful to what the medicine does to have both people in the same tub? If "the moment becomes right" wouldn't hopping into the other person's small bath tub be inconvenient?

And what about the other ones where the guy throw away the remotes and she throws away the magazines? Do they make use of what the medicine does? Nope, they dance instead. That reminds the Fan of the geckos down in Florida that go through an hour long ritual of showing off for each other before they actually get to business. Just do it, man!

It's bad enough that the commercials are on constantly, now these drugs are sponsoring events. In golf, we have/had "The Cialis Open." That gives new meaning to the golf expression, "hitting it stiff." During baseball games, we have the Cialis Pitching Change or other such inglorious uses of the name. Imagine the poor announcers (obviously an oxymoron) who have to read that crap and see it all over their program notes.

All this is Bill Clinton's fault. It was his dalliances with interns that became such big news that boners and other sexual acts started getting mentioned in news stories. Hey, if it's in news stories, then we sure as heck have a right to advertise about this great medicine that allows men everywhere to get erections with a magic pill. There is even a choice now between a daily pill and a spur of the moment pill. Good to know.

Baseball, more than most sports is a passed-down-through-the-generation type thing. Parents take the kids out to the games, watch games on TV and slog the kids to Little League. How many awkward conversations get generated for these poor parents when little John-EE or Amberlyn (got to get all these new-fangled names in there to be relevant) ask what an erection is?

And have you noticed that all of the actors in these commercials look fit as fiddles? Not an overweight or wrinkly face anywhere in sight. And worst of all, one of Elvis Presley's best songs is totally ruined forever by Viagra. That is truly the crime of the decade.

While we are on the subject, why must we also endure so many commercials about guys who can't pee? Or dentures that ooze? Or women who can't hold it? Or jock itch? Or feminine itch? Or women that can't naturally lubricate (ewww)? An evening at the old ballgame has become this creepy litany of oozing, itching, peeing and dancing-until-you-do-it bonanza. It's awful.

In an effort to be journalistically justified, this author must confess to trying Viagra once even though (thank G-d) there is no problem for this big and late-middle-aged fellow. It made the family jewels ache for an hour or so. It felt like someone had permanently kicked the Fan in the nuts. Not exactly romantic.

Look, the Fan gets it. These drugs make their companies a lot of money. Does all that advertising really make a difference though? Just about everyone in America now knows that if you can't pee, or can't stop peeing, can't get it up, can't stop itching, can't lubricate or whatever, there is medicine that can help you. Now that we are all informed until we are either numb or nauseous, can't we get these dang things away from our ball games, golf matches and rounds of Jeopardy? This dad would be eternally grateful if we could.

A New Wonderkind

Remember a couple of years ago when Joba Chamberlain was first called up to the Yankees and the buzz that was created by his heroics? That same kind of buzz is surrounding a new pitcher by the name of Neftali Feliz, who has provided the Rangers with a huge lift in relief.

According to the scouts, he has two A-plus pitches, a hundred mile an hour fastball and a curve that is thrown so hard and has such a biting break that the batters don't seem to have a chance. He's now pitched in four games for a total of 6.2 innings. He's given up one hit, a homer, no walks and has struck out 13. Wow!

It's early in his young career, but he sure has made an early impression. To see what he's all about, click this link and see for yourself. It's quite amazing.

Game Picks - Friday: August 14, 2009

Whoa! This picker is way behind schedule. Been up since six working on a rush book order due today because the dang paper company was late shipping the special paper needed for the job. Oh well. At least the picks were again in the very positive zone. This picker is still atop the leader board at www.ballhype.com. But the game picker has not yet finished a week on top of that silly site as you get more points sometimes being wrong half the time than when you are correct 75% of the time.

Another full Friday and since we're already late, let's get right to it.

• The Cubs over the Pirates: Morton has been pretty good for the Pirates, but Wells is the only Cubs' pitcher to keep on winning.
• The Angels over the Orioles: Weaver has been outstanding lately.
• The Royals over the Tigers: Yeah, the Tigers should win, but Washburn is no lock for them and Greinke is pitching for the Royals.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: Josh Johnson should be better than Hammel.
• The Giants over the Mets: Zito? He's been pretty good, but it sure is scary picking him to win. Parnell though hasn't been good as a starter.
• The Nationals over the Reds: Might as well make a Mock-ery of this pick.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Like Jurrjens better than Blanton.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Another battle of the "Ays" features Halladay for the Blue Jays.
• The Astros over the Brewers: Berkman is back and the Fan was foolish to give up on Wandy last time.
• The Red Sox over the Rangers: Hate to make this pick, but the trust is more in Lester than in Millwood.
• The Indians over the Twins: Still one for sixty with Twins' picks. It's amazing how this team baffles.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Latos is good but not as good as Wainwright.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Hate picking against Haran, but Kershaw will shut down the other offense.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Anderson has been really good for the A's and Contreras is problematic.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Pettitte has looked ten years younger lately and the Yankees are pounding the ball.

There you have it. Have a great weekend.

Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 39-25
Month: 90-83

Some Quick Observations

Many of these items have stories in them that perhaps can be expanded later. But for the moment, there are too many thoughts swirling around for any of them to gel completely. They are, nonetheless, interesting and worth noting for your digestion.

Pedro pitched decently and got the win. It was amazing to see Pedro Martinez back in the majors and in a game. He gave up three runs in five innings (not much better than Moyer) while allowing eight base runners. He did strike out five while only walking one, so that is a good sign.

The Brewers are a mess. They looked like contenders early in the year but have fallen on really hard times. Yesterday, they cut Bill Hall (not a problem there) and optioned J. J. Hardy to the minors. Hardy still has some pop and it doesn't seem to make sense to dump him like that. If they were trying to send a message, the Hall thing would have been enough. If they are giving up on Hardy, a lot of teams would love to have him. The Brewers also fired long-time pitching coach, Bill Castro, as if it was his fault they lost half of their rotation and the others didn't perform. What a mess.

The Astros activated Lance Berkman and they will be happy to have their big bopper back at first. Doesn't this scenario seem familiar? It seems like every year, Berkman shambles along, then goes on the DL for a while and then comes back and has monster Augusts and Septembers. At least it feels like we have been through this before.

And last but not least, believe it or not, Adam Eaton is back in the major leagues again. Can you believe it! The Rockies are his latest team and they just promoted him from AAA. Man. Go figure.

Game Picks - Thursday: August 13, 2009

Last week {{shiver}} is a thing of the past and this week has been a good one. Heck, even the month is now in the black. Well, alright! Only those crazy Twins messed up again along with the Cubs and the Marlins (can you say, "Thump"), Diamondbacks and Bay Rays. Other than that, everything worked out really well.

Tonight is a short schedule with only nine games, but let's see if we can keep this ball rolling:

• The Rangers over the Indians: Feldman! Go Feldman!
• The Twins over the Royals: Here we go again with the Twins. The Fan is even picking Pavano to win. Geez.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: The Tigers need to get moving and they have the closest thing to an ace on the mound. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are pitching Buckholz.
• The Padres over the Brewers: Latos has been surprisingly good. Parra has not. The Brewers are in disarray.
• The Phillies over the Cubs: Lee has been unbelievable for the Phillies.
• The Rockies over the Pirates: Would like to go with Maholm and the Pirates, but Maholm has been beatable lately and this picker can't pick against Marquis.
• The Reds over the Nationals: Arroyo is due for a good game.
• The Astros over the Marlins: Not real swift on Mike Hampton who has been getting pounded. But Sean West gives this picker no confidence.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Sabathia has his second good start in a row and the New Yorkers jump all over Ian Snell despite the jet lag.

Beautiful summer day in Maine. Hope it's nice wherever you are!

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 33-22
Month: 84-80

Jack Cust's Perfect Symmatry

Before last night's game, Cust had reached a Nirvana of sorts. Cust entered Wednesday night's game with 1704 plate appearances. In those 1704 plate appearances, he has walked 305 times and struck out 547 times. Add those two together and you get 852 or exactly 50% of his plate appearances. The number is freaky.

What that means is that in Cust's entire career, 50% of his trudges up to the plate result in a ball not put in play. If you add in his homers at 80, then that brings the total to 55% of his plate appearances where the fielders can sit it out and take a rest. Has there ever been anyone like Cust? Ever?

The sad thing is that Cust is regressing instead of getting better. His strikeout rate is better at 33% this year compared to 40% last year (39% for his career). But his last three years show a decline in his OPS. In 2007 it was .912. Last year it was .851 and this year he's down to .777. He is also playing a lot in the field which doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It might have done so when Giambi was there, but not now. He's a DH if there ever was one.

But, he is Jack Cust and there is no one else like him. What did he do Wednesday night? He had four plate appearances. He struck out twice and he walked twice. It was a typical Jack Cust night. But it did mess up the symmetry. Now the total of his walks and strikeouts compared to his plate appearances is at 50.12%

Heltoning it on the Head

A player has now, at the age of 34, amassed 2086 career hits, 321 homers, 504 doubles, 1181 RBI, a lifetime .328 batting average and has a lifetime OPS of .997. Future member of the Hall of Fame? The player is Todd Helton and his problem is his home field. Helton has played his entire career for the Colorado Rockies and unfortunately, his career is hard to take seriously because of it. Is that fair?

Well, one thing is certain: If he had a few more years like last year, it would have been a moot conversation. He had a .777 OPS last year and only hit .264. He became a forgotten man after that. But he is at the center of the Rockies resurgence this year and is batting .329 with an OPS of .919. So it is safe to assume that last year was an anomaly based on injuries or something.

But since he is back, the debate again comes up because, as this year proves, if Helton can put a few more decent seasons together, he's going to have a lot of good career numbers. The debate will rage around where he plays his home games and proof will be sought after by his career home/away splits. So let's look at them.

Home: .362/.469/.647
Away: .304/.394/.492

That's a pretty big difference. The BA is still very good as is the OBP. But the slugging certainly suffers. Is this a knock only on Todd Helton. Is his home playing field a singular event for just him? Are there others in history that are similar? Certainly Hank Aaron is a prime example of a true superstar. His stats at home and away are so similar over his storied career that they are within percentage points. Mickey Mantle suffered some in the home/away splits but still slugged .548 on the road during his career.

Here are a couple of Hall of Fame splits. The Fan will reveal the players after:

Player 1:

Home: .290/.349/.538
Away: .258/.311/.461

Quite a difference there.

Player 2:

Home: .354/.443/.491
Away: .302/.387/.395

Big difference there too.

Player 3:

Home: .320/.383/.506
Away: .290/.356/.469

All three of the above are in the Hall of Fame and all three have fairly significant number differences home and away. There could be more examples, but home and away splits are unavailable (at least on www.baseball-reference.com) before 1973. The players? Ernie Banks, Wade Boggs and George Brett.

So, there you have it. Three players have all gotten into the Hall of Fame despite significant differences in their home and away splits. But where the Rockies play their home games (whatever they call it now!) seems to have an even more biased history than other former hitters' parks. That is so much the case that Helton's unbelievable numbers in 2000 and 2001 are always blamed on his home field without a hint of steroids. Name any other player where that would be the case?

Steps have been taken in Denver to change some of the advantage the hitters have. The Humidor (whatever that is) is one example. One doesn't hear as much about pitchers not being able to succeed there now as there was in the past. Perhaps that will work in Helton's favor if he stays with the Rockies over his career.

Matt Holliday certainly heard the same whispers and his time in Oakland seemed to cement them as the truth. But now that Holliday is with the Cardinals and again whopping the ball, perhaps that will die down too.

What is a shame, perhaps, is that nobody really knows how good Todd Helton really was or is. As long as his past and present is tied up with the Rockies, his Hall of Fame resume will be debated for a long, long time.

Game Picks - Wednesday: August 12, 2009

The good vibe is back and this picker is 18-7 in his last two days. That somewhat erases the horrid taste left on the palette from last week. As bobook pointed out (thank you), it's a pretty good day when picking the Pirates, Reds, Padres and Royals to win and three out of the four do win. Heck, the picker is even on top of the list this week on ballhype.com (too bad that site's screwy scoring system won't allow this picker to stay there). For those of you keeping score, the picker is now 1312-1155 in picks for the season. That's 157 games over .500. Do you know what the Fan's cumulative ballhype.com score is for that record? -6. Yes, minus 6. Something is screwy there huh?

Anyway, the morning is frittering away, so we better get to the picks:

• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are playing tough, but the Yankees are too much.
• The A's over the Orioles: Mazzero versus Berken. Flip a coin on which young pitcher will perform. Who knows.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Neimann should beat Bell. But again, this pick is fraught with danger as the Angels are playing well and the Bay Rays are playing like there is still the whole season to get into wild card contention. In other words, there is little urgency there.
• The Diamondbacks over the Mets: The good Oliver Perez or the bad one? Who can ever tell.
• The Giants over the Dodgers: Torre must have a Jeff Weaver fixation. Only that can explain why the great manager has this weak spot for this awful pitcher.
• The Rangers over the Indians: Again: The Rangers need to win just about every game.
• The Marlins over the Astros: The Marlins should teach the Bay Rays a thing or two about how to act in a wild card race.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Nats' winning streak is history and so is their nice little buzz.
• The Red Sox over the Tigers: The Red Sox will eat Galarraga for lunch while Beckett cleans up.
• The Padres over the Brewers: The Brew Crew might as well wave the white flag as they keep trotting Villanueva out there.
• The Cubs over the Phillies: Pedro's first start of the year for the Phillies? Not feeling it.
• The Royals over the Twins: Those dang Twins screwed the Fan up again yesterday.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Carpenter. Homer Bailey. Yeah. That's what the Fan thought too.
• The Rockies over the Pirates: Thought about taking Hart and the Pirates. But then thought against it.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: Buehrle threw 14 straight perfect innings and hasn't gotten anyone out since. Whuh?

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 23-17
Month: 74-75

Game Picks - Tuesday: August 11, 2009

Well, that's better. With the exception of the American League East, with other than Toronto beating the Yankees, confused this picker quite a bit. Didn't expect the Red Sox to beat the Tigers. Really thought that Garza would fare better against the Angels. And this picker really should have known better than to pick Guthrie. Guthrie!? Duh.

But over all, seven out of ten is a lot better than things have been lately. It is Tuesday and we are back to a full fifteen games, which, based on things last week, fill this picker with dread. But facing things is what this picker does. So on we go:

• The Orioles over the A's: Hernandez versus Cahill. Can't remember the last time Cahill had a good outing.
• The Rangers over the Indians: Very scary game. The Rangers need the wins. The Indians have been getting them in bunches.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Now that we have Mitre out of the way, it's back to our regularly scheduled programming.
• The Marlins over the Astros: Not only is Volstad doing well, but Oswalt is back for his first game after injuring his back. Not liking that scenario.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Hanson versus Lannon. The Braves stop the Nats' winning streak even though the Nationals are using their best pitcher.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: Porcello is a scary pick, but the Red Sox are starting Tazawa, the same young kid who gave up A-Rod's bomb in the 15th inning Friday night.
• The Padres over the Brewers: Richard was a lot for the White Sox to give up for Peavy.
• The Phillies over the Cubs: Happ versus Harden. Going with Happ.
• The Twins over the Royals: Did you notice that the Fan got a Twins' game pick correct yesterday? It's a miracle!
• The Reds over the Cardinals: Lehr hasn't lacked courage since he came up from the minors. Did you get that joke?
• The Pirates over the Rockies: Ohlendorf! Ha ha! He is pitching against the latest reincarnation of Chacin.
• The Diamondbacks over the Mets: Man, how the Fan hates picking against Livan.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: David Price needs to have a big game.
• The White Sox over the Mariners: Isn't Fister one of the most unfortunate names?
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Randy Wolf needs to win this game to put the Dodgers back on easy street.

Well, there it is. It doesn't feel like another 5-10 line up.

Yesterday: 7-3
Week: 12-13
Month: 63-71

Padilla, Guillen and the DH

There certainly has been a lot of discussion about hit batsmen lately. Vincent Padilla, apparently a leper to his teammates, likes to hit guys after someone hits a homer off of him. It happened earlier in the year against the Yankees and happened again just last week. In the most recent incarnation, Michael Young got drilled in retaliation. Texas players were fed up with having targets on their backs and when Texas drop kicked one of its semi-reliable starters from its roster, there was nothing but praise for their GM by the Rangers' players.

In another news wire story today, White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, no stranger to the verbal highlight reels, said he was tired of his guys getting hit and would start hitting players on the other team if it continued. He was quoted as saying that he doesn't care if he gets suspended if it happens.

There are two problems here that have caused the present situation. The American League has the DH. Those who visit the FanDome on a regular basis know the Fan is a conditional lover of the DH. But one of the fall outs of the AL rule is that if the other team feels that its players are targeted, the DH takes the pitcher out of the lineup, so the other team has no other option than to hit another player. Take Padilla for example (which in all likelihood, somebody will). Padilla has his manhood offended by a homer. He decides to get some of his manhood back by plunking a subsequent batter. Padilla doesn't bat. So the opposing team can't go after him. The only option they have is to hit someone like Michael Young.

If the Fan had been the Texas manager, here's how that could have been handled. Obviously, Ranger players have been warned by other teams. Michael Young said so himself after the Yankee incident. Several of his "friends" on the Yankees (read Teixeira, A-Rod and Jeter) told him that Padilla was going to get his fellow Ranger players killed. So, since this is a known problem, the next time it happened, the Fan as manager would insert Padilla in the batting order where the DH is supposed to be. Can you see how that would play out?

Fan as Manager: "Padilla, grab a bat, you're hitting for Blalock."
Padilla: "Que?"
Fan as Manager: "Oh for goodness sake, will somebody bilingual please tell the guy he is going to hit for Blalock."
Bilingual Teammate: [[spanish translation]]
Padilla: "Porque? He Loco?"

Padilla glances at his manager who does a head shake towards the bat rack. Padilla grabs a bat and furiously begs fellow teammates for whatever body armor they wear up to the plate. Finally the umpire walks over and says, "You have a guy to hit or what?"

Padilla walks nervously to the batter's box. He looks out at the pitcher who just smiles at him. Padilla takes the first pitch which is at his feet. Padilla displays a good dance move to get out of the way. He's even more nervous now. The next pitch is a rocket heading right for Padilla's back. No way Padilla has time to get out the way. The sound is something like a hammer hitting a watermelon. Padilla winces and immediately grabs his back. The pitcher on the mound snickers all the way to the dugout after being tossed from the game. Padilla's teammates snicker too as the trainer tries to keep from laughing as he tries to assess the damage. Padilla vows he is never going to "man up" again and hit an opposing batter.

That would fix it. But it will never happen because a manager would be foolish to lose a DH for a game. Now that the Rangers have punted the pitcher, if he signs with a National League club, he better wise up.

The second problem (you have probably lost the reference here as the Fan had a slight diversion of fancy) is that one of the new Nirvanas for pitching is to pitch inside. As Ozzie rightly points out, if you don't know how to do it, don't do it. In other words, pitching inside is a great idea IF you have the control to pull it off. But if you are slightly unaware of where your mechanics are going to take your pitches, pitching inside is probably not a good idea. People can get killed that way. And it might be your own players who get thrown at in retaliation.

Speaking of hit batsmen, did you watch the Sunday night ESPN game with the Red Sox and Yankees? After Damon and Teixeira wrecked Daniel Bard with back-to-back homers, Bard then walked A-Rod. After Okijama came in, Posada doubled to put men on second and third. That brought up Nick Swisher. On the first pitch to Swisher, the pitch came inside and appeared to graze Swisher's uniform. Swisher, an apparent student of the game and the metrics of OBP, looked at the ump and told him he had been hit. The ump didn't see it that way.

Old school Joe Morgan (and the Fan couldn't quite disagree with him) laughed and said something to the effect of, "Why would he want to go to first like that when he has two possible RBIs sitting out there." Such is the vast cavern of thought currently in baseball. Morgan played in the "RBI is king" days of statistical evaluation. Swisher plays in the "OBP is king" days.

It all worked out for Swisher as he hit a single. He got his two ribbies AND a notch on his OBP.

The Yankees Sweep the Red Sox

It wasn't your typical whooping, but it was a masterful series the Yankees just played against the Red Sox, a team that had swept them for the season before this series. The Yankees out pitched the Red Sox and they out hit them. The Yankees made a mess of the best bullpen in baseball while their own bullpen (with the exception of Phil Coke on Sunday night) was fantastic. In every way, this series was all Yankees as the team from New York started the series with a two and a half game lead in the division and left it leading by six and a half.

It started on Thursday night. The Red Sox, needing to continue beating the Yankees, made a tactical blunder by starting the once-great John Smoltz. Smoltz had done nothing to that point in showing that he could get the job done and after the first couple of innings, the game was over. The Red Sox, in effect, took the pressure off the Yankees, who had been under the eight ball all year by the Boston team. There is no denying that Smoltz has had a great career, but when you are already trailing by two and a half, you work your rotation so your best guys are up there to beat the team you have to beat. If Beckett had started the series and blanked them early on, there is no telling if the Yankees would have stayed tight looking down the barrel of a ninth straight defeat against the Red Sox. So that was a mistake.

The Friday night game will be remembered for a long, long time. Fourteen and a half innings of scoreless baseball. Beckett and Burnett were fabulous as the starters. Both bullpens hung in there with the Red Sox escaping several close calls in the 11th, 13th and 14th innings. But then A-Rod won it against a young Japanese kid making his major league debut. A pitcher only in there because every other Red Sox relief pitcher was already used up.

Saturday was Sabathia's game. His first big moment in a Yankee uniform. After a so-so season, he no-hit the Red Sox for five and pitched a shutout. Buckholz did well, but not well enough and the Yankees then torched the worn out Red Sox bullpen to ice the game.

Sunday night was a great game. Both starters were excellent. Andy Pettitte had a scary couple of innings early, but pitched seven shutout innings and got stronger as the night went on. In the bottom of the seventh, A-Rod murdered a pitch from Lester and the Yankees went ahead 1-0. The way the Yankee bullpen has been pitching, that figured to be enough. But Phil Coke was not sharp and the newly acquired Victor Martinez launched a two-run homer to make it a 2-1 Red Sox lead. The homer snapped a 32 inning scoreless streak for the Red Sox in the series.

It seemed as if the Red Sox were going to salvage at least one game of the series, especially with their bullpen. But young Daniel Bard was called in to pitch to the Yankees in the eighth as the bridge to Papelbon. The Yankees burned down the bridge. After two weak outs on a strikeout to Matsui and an excuse-me swing by Jeter, Johnny Damon hit a laser into the bullpen to tie the game. Mark Teixeira then came up and put the Yankees ahead with a moon shot to the upper deck. After a walk to A-Rod, the Red Sox then brought in the usually reliable Okijama, but he was ineffective and the inning ended with the Yankees up 5-2. Rivera made it a little scary in the ninth, but he got the save and the Red Sox now need to regroup as they head for another tough series against Detroit.

The Fan watched most of this series and has long believed this year that the Red Sox were the best team in baseball. They seemed to have it all. But after watching the four games, something is not clicking. Certainly David Ortiz is not the fearsome force he has been in the past, and though the Red Sox have lived with that all year, it seems to have weakened the entire lineup and has forced other guys to step up and they haven't. It almost seems that the Red Sox have lost some confidence because they don't have that force in the middle of the lineup in big situations like before.

The Red Sox are missing something else: Manny Ramirez. Sure, they got into the ALCS last year without him. But over the long haul, he was a menace and a terror, especially combined with Ortiz. It is hard to say if Ortiz would have put up the numbers he did for so long without Manny behind him. Take Ortiz and his diminished capacity and remove Ramirez completely and the Red Sox are ordinary at the plate. And good pitching, like the Yankees showed this series, will exploit ordinary in ways the Red Sox have not been exploited in years.

It will be interesting to see where Boston goes from here. They are now only tied for the wildcard with the Rangers and the Bay Rays are right behind. The Red Sox still have some of the best pitching in the majors. After this series, it will be fascinating to see if it is enough.

Game Picks - Monday: August 10, 2009

Holy Cow, as Phil Rizzuto used to say. A third straight 5-10 day. How sweet it isn't. After a swinging July, August has been downright scorched for this picker and there seems to be no end to the massacre. Wow!

The laughing continued with the Twins. If you caught this feature yesterday, the Fan was making fun of himself for his continued bedevilment at the hand of this team. It goes on and on each and every night and after the Fan got Pavanoed on Saturday, he got Home Run Bakered on Sunday. Add the Twins fits with the Brew Crew and a Nationals' eight game winning streak, and the Fan is slobbering all over his keyboard like some member of Red Sox Nation after this lost weekend.

Thankfully, there are only ten games on the schedule for Monday, so it is statistically impossible to go 5-10 again. Let's see what mischief is waiting for us on Monday:

• The Orioles over the A's: Guthrie is supposed to be the ace of this staff. It would be nice if he had a game like one. Many of the Orioles' young hitters might have seen Gio Gonzalez in the minors, so maybe that will help too.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Will this be a Yankee let down after their big series, or will they be undone by Mitre. Either way, it feels like a loss.
• The Marlins over the Astros: Nick Johnson makes Florida better, but they still run Bonafacio out there too much. Golly, he is awful.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: Three problems for the Red Sox here: 1) They are demoralized. 2) They have Penny starting. 3) Jackson starts for Detroit.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Lohse should be better than Cueto, who the Fan has given up on.
• The Rockies over the Cubs: Somehow the Cubs won last time with Gorzelanny starting. It won't happen again.
• The Diamondbacks over the Mets: The D-backs are at home and since the teams and their starters are basically even, we'll go with that.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Garza has been good. But the Bay Rays have their chance and they are frittering it away. They need to get going.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: The Mariners are getting to be like the Twins for the Fan...a mine field.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Going with Kuroda over Sanchez. The Dodgers better stop coasting.

That's it. Please let better days prevail!

Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 5-10
Month: 56-68 Ugh!

Still Rooting for Josh Hamilton

Speaking of Jeff Passan, he wrote a fair piece on Josh Hamilton, who as everyone now knows, fell off the wagon recently and was caught publicly in a bar in some compromising situations. Passan, as well as all of us that root for humanity, were disappointed that Hamilton fell off the wagon. It's difficult to state the hope that Hamilton represented. The one thing to remember is that Hamilton had an episode. He did not have a complete bender.

The Fan is familiar with addiction. Having first hand knowledge of the subject in family matters, there is no greater and more stressful horror than a loved one who cannot seem to lick such a situation. For those like us who are familiar with such horrors, Hamilton represented hope, but also worry because we know what can happen.

Who knows why good young people (and good old people) fall into such a trap. Lives are ruined, families are wrecked and it is never pretty. Some day, the Fan may be able to get everything out on the page of what he has experienced on the topic. But for now, let's just say that the heart goes out to Hamilton and prayers are being said for him and his family.

It's far too easy to judge Hamilton. Those that judge have not experienced the horror that is addiction. From one who has seen it first hand, there is no judgement here. There is only immense hope that Hamilton can be surrounded by his support system and find new resolve in this situation.

Tower of Babel Lego House

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has never been a favorite writer. For one thing, he is much too young to be such a self-righteous writer. That is usually reserved for older writers like Buster Olney. But the Fan wandered over to his column yesterday and read an entertaining piece called, 25 things you didn't know about baseball. First of all, what is it with titles not being capitalized? But getting past that, the article was about Passan discovering FanGraphs, the amazing statistical enterprise that is one of the best things about being a baseball fan in our era. As the title suggests, Passan lists 25 statistical facts that surprised him from his experience at FanGraphs. The Fan was grooving with him until the very end when the one weakness of relying solely on stats revealed itself. Passan was at least smart enough to hit upon it too.

The stat was about the six hitters in baseball that do not have a vulnerability on any pitch. Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter, Adam Jones were listed. Fair enough. But then the last one listed was Skip Schumaker. Skip Schumaker? Now be honest, if it was bases loaded, two outs, in the bottom of the ninth with the Cardinals trailing by a run with Trevor Hoffman on the mound, would Skip Schumaker be the one guy you hoped would come up to bat to get the big hit for the Cardinals? Maybe. But maybe not.

Passan is awfully young to just be starting to be turned on by statistics. No offense, but young folks should be all over that new aspect of the game. Us old fogies are understandable if we are a bit late in getting on the ball. The Fan is one of the latter and is having fun getting a new education on what these new metrics tell us. But...and this is a big but...us old fogies are still not convinced that these metrics tell the full story. Maybe a story will be illustrative here.

The Fan's neighborhood is rather nice and on a hill overlooking rolling farmlands. All of the lots of an acre and a half and it's a nice spot. There was only one lot left in the development and it was a corner lot right next to the Fan's. It sat as an empty lot for a few years and the Fan hoped it would stay that way. But the developer finally sold it to a young whippersnapper the Fan knew. This young guy, a computer programmer, was one of those guys who was too young to know that you never really know more than ten percent of what you should know.

After he bought the lot, the Fan saw him walking around his property and went over to say hello. The Fan mentioned that the lot would be difficult to get a foundation in the ground. The Fan's favorite subject in college was geology. You had to take one science for the English degree and chemistry is too much math and biology was too...uhh...gross. So geology it was. And it was fun! Well, the Fan could just observe the landscape of this lot and it was a funny shaped mound and the Fan knew it was a classic moraine. A moraine is where a glacier just dumps a bunch of rock and leaves it there. The young programmer insisted that he had done some tests and had all the data and it would be fine.

Well, the basement contractor showed up and started digging with his equipment. But sure enough, after only a couple of inches, they hit solid rock and couldn't dig any further. And so, the entire foundation was built above ground, all ten feet of it. Then the two story, prefab house showed up in two pieces and they put that together in one day on top of this foundation. The Fan came home from work to suddenly discover that next door to his once lovely neighborhood now had this towering monstrosity next door which incidentally blocked out a once beautiful view of each night's sunset. The Fan and his wife now affectionately call the thing the Tower of Babel Lego House.

The young programmer had all the data, but the Fan had observation. The Fan isn't discounting the data or the stats and metrics we now have. They are very useful and powerful and the Fan enjoys them. But they don't tell the entire story. There are intangibles that can't be measured, at least not yet. And observation is still a powerful thing. The Fan wrote a piece recently about the MVP type year Chone Figgins is having with the Angels. Figgins is having the type of year that the metric folks love. But Figgins has been "observed" for a long time and in the right playoff situation, a power pitcher is going to have a fairly easy time getting him out. He isn't as scary as he sometimes looks.

Don't know if this posts makes any sense. But there is room in baseball for metrics and for observation and if anyone discounts one or the other, then they aren't seeing the whole story.

Game Picks - Sunday: August 9, 2009

Sometimes you just have to laugh. Those Twins...those amazing and beguiling Twins. This picker hasn't picked a Twins game correctly since Spring Training it seems. Every time they are expected to win, they lose. This picker gives up and predicts them to lose, and they win. And then the whole cycle continues again. Their latest accomplishment was to lift Carl Pavano from the Indians. Yeah, Carl Pavano. The Fan laughed. The Fan made fun of the deal. The Twins put him into the rotation immediately and started him last night. The Fan was finally going to get a Twins pick right. Except Pavano threw a shutout. Yeah. Carl Pavano. Sometimes you just have to laugh.

As yesterday unfolded, the Fan did a lot of laughing. Yes, the Yankees pick was correct. Yes, the Padres, Cardinals and a couple others was correct. But Marquis lost. The Cubs won a game with the equally beguiling Dempster. Danny Haran lost to the Nationals, who have somehow managed two put together a rather long winning streak. Ian Snell made a start for the Mariners. The Fan was rooting for him. He walked six batters in the first inning. Yup. Lots of laughing. It sure beats crying.

Let's try this again. Oh boy:

• The Twins over the Tigers: The cycle begins again. But Baker really should be better than Jarrod Washburn. He just should be. Really.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Roy Halladay is pitching. PLEASE be a lock!
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Pineiro should beat Zack Duke.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Not only has Josh Johnson been a very good pitcher, but he's hit three homers. Of course he only has six or seven hits total, but when he connects...
• The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Come on, this Nats' winning streak has to end some time.
• The Brewers over the Astros: Hate to pick against Wandy, but he was hurt last time out. Which is worrisome.
• The White Sox over the Indians: Not feeling too up about this pick. But it didn't feel any better the other way either.
• The Royals over the A's: Two young pitchers: Hochever versus Anderson. Anderson has some great stuff, but Hochever is maturing at last.
• The Cubs over the Rockies: Wells has been consistent and seems to be the Cubs' good luck charm.
• The Angels over the Rangers: As much as the Fan would want it not to happen, there is no way that Holland beats Lackey.
• The Mets over the Padres: Santana versus Stauffer. Stauffer makes great frozen dinners, but Santana should win.
• The Giants over the Reds: When is the last time Harang pitched well?
• The Braves over the Dodgers: Vazquez over Stults. If the Braves snuck into the wildcard, they would be dangerous.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Kazmir has looked like his old self lately and Rowland-Smith doesn't have an old self.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Red Sox take out their frustrations on Andy Pettitte and Lester shuts the Yanks down to salvage one game out of this disaster.

Yesterday: 5-10 (still laughing)
Week: 42-52 (still laughing)
Month: 51-58 (starting to cry)

Game Picks - Saturday: August 8, 2009

Yesterday in this space, this game picker was complaining about the mediocrity of his recent picks. Staying just above or just below the .500 mark was getting old. What's the old expression? "Be careful what you wish for." Well, yesterday wasn't mediocre at least. It was downright brutally ugly. Wow, was it bad.

But you know what? It's all good. There was some really exciting games. The Yankees and Red Sox played a classic with A-Rod hitting a walk-off in the 15th. There were two more walk-offs around the majors. The Nationals won their sixth straight. The A's won big. The Indians suddenly look like juggernauts and there was exciting baseball everywhere you looked. If the price to pay for that was a bad night picking games, so be it.

Let's see what today brings:

• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Can a team get depressed? The Blue Jays seem depressed. Perhaps a good start from Cecil will help.
• The Reds over the Giants: Speaking of depressed, the Reds are on a serious slide. But Arroyo is a pro and Barry Zito is due for a clunker.
• The Rangers over the Angels: The Rangers are fighting for their lives and pulled out a win last night. Hamilton hit a homer, which is very good news for Ranger fans.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: Sabathia over Buckholz. Sabathia has to start kicking it in here sooner or later, doesn't he?
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Wainwright has been great (except for his last start).
• The Phillies over the Marlins: The Marlins got the exciting win last night, but this picker has no confidence in Sean West who gets the start tonight.
• The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Danny Haran ends the Nationals winning streak.
• The Astros over the Brewers: Two really struggling pitchers in Hampton versus Parra.
• The Tigers over the Twins: The Twins big move was to pick up Carl Pavano!?
• The Indians over the White Sox: The Indians start to reap the benefits of the Victor Martinez trade with Masterson starting today.
• The Royals over the A's: Greinke has to win a game again some time, doesn't he?
• The Rockies over the Cubs: Marquis! That's Rule #2.
• The Padres over the Mets: Latos has looked good. Parnell is starting for the Mets after being in the bullpen all year.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: Kershaw for the Dodgers versus Kawakami. The Braves always seem to lose when Kawakami pitches.
• The Mariners over the Bay Rays: Fresh off their dramatic come from behind walk-off last night, Ian Snell continues his restoration project.

Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 37-42
Month: 46-48

Empathy for Smoltz and Giambi

Switching to the first person for a post if that's okay with you? John Smoltz and Jason Giambi were cut by their respective teams today. Both are way beyond their peak and both were trying to start over with new clubs. In Giambi's case, he was trying to resurrect his career with his original team. Once again, it's hard to go home again. The Fan...I...can relate to what they must be feeling.

There comes a point in every life where you just can't do the things you used to be able to do with ease. Both Smoltz and Giambi used to excel and it probably seemed for them at the time that it would always be so. When you are young, life is exponential in possibilities. Energy isn't something you need because you already possess it with innateness. I used to be able to run for miles and I could run like the wind. I could ride my bike with ease for hours on end, well into my thirties. Then something happens and you still feel the same inside, but your mind can't get the response it wants from the body. It makes you doubt. It's little things too. Like a small wall or fence that you used to hop over without thinking. Now, when I see something like that, I hesitate and look for an easier way. I used to spend almost every free moment from early September to the end of October getting wood for the winter. From gathering it in the woods to splitting and stacking. I just knew I could do it and I didn't hesitate.

In 1993, I helped start a tax preparation software company. The founder and I coached little league together and that's how it started. My first desk was a door on six milk crates in his living room. I worked 70, 80 hours a week building that thing and with his smarts and my people skills, that business became a $40 million a year enterprise.

Most of those later years were desk years. Somewhere along the line, I stacked on some weight and stopped stacking wood and stopped running and stopped riding bikes and stopped snowshoeing and stopped doing things for myself. By then, I could pay people to do things for me. Then the founder sold the company. Don't blame him. He got what he wanted out of the thing and he made his money. The company that bought the business offered me a great opportunity to continue with the business. The only catch was that I needed to move from Maine to Georgia. I couldn't do that.

I have a little girl. Well, she isn't very little any more. But she isn't grown up yet either. She lives with her mom and her older brother two towns from here. My dad died when I was ten. I just couldn't leave her behind to continue a successful life. I couldn't be an absentee dad. And my grown son was still in this area and I didn't want to leave him either. And so I declined the gracious invitation. Besides, I was tired of the tax world and it's high volubility and stress. Three years ago, I started a publishing business. I had a five year plan and figured by the fifth year, the business would support me and I could retire from the tax business. Well, life had other plans.

And so, long before the plan could reach its maturity, I am giving it my all to speed up the process. I would have taken another job if there was one around. But, this decision to part with the old company came at the worst possible time with a tanking economy and hiring freezes. To add to that problem, most of my liquid capital had already been tied up in my new company's equipment, so there is no real cushion to work with here. My wife, a teacher who loves what she does, is unbelievable. She believes in me and in what I am trying to do and she would rather see us struggle than for me to scrap it. And so we live week to week and month to month.

I have to do things myself now. And running this business requires physical labor such as standing on my feet all day and carrying boxes full of books or paper or toner up and down stairs. It's exhausting. It wouldn't have been twenty years ago. I have to pace myself and learn my limitations. My knees ache and I have this heel spur and I look like an old man when I first wake up and stumble to the bathroom. But so help me, I am going to make this work. I grew one company and I can do it again. But boy, it's not as easy this time because I don't have the energy I once had.

The determination I have to grow this company is the same determination I have to write this blog. One, I believe in my writing skills (I have nine books published). Secondly, I love baseball and this is a passion. The problem is that I have been working so hard that the blog has suffered. I struggle for passionate ideas to write about. I write shorter posts. Readership has lagged a bit and that bums me out and makes me yearn for the younger man I used to be.

And so, yeah, I can relate to Giambi and Smoltz. I can understand how hard it is to make an older body do what it used to do with ease. I can understand the humiliation when limitations that didn't used to exist now are faced on a daily basis. I can understand when you hit a wall and people are watching, many expecting you to fail.

The one difference is that their chosen profession is finite. It's a young man's game and after a while, those limitations cause you to lose that profession. I can keep plugging away, using all the sum of my life's experiences to help me. Sure, I'm exhausted. Sure, I ache. But I don't have to quit.

I have this fountain in the front of my house, right by the front steps. It is a relic from the days of disposable income. I love that fountain. Like me, like Giambi and Smoltz, that fountain sprang a leak. It kept losing water from the bowl that is supposed to hold it. Age caught up to it just as sure as it has caught up to me. I no longer can just pay somebody to fix it. So I was determined to salvage "my lady" (as I call her). To do so meant lifting the lady off her perch on top of the fountain so I could then take down the bowl to repair it. Like that low fence I told you about earlier, when faced with the task of picking this huge marble lady off of her pedestal, I hesitated. I can't do that anymore can I?

Well, I told you, I love my lady and I had to save her from becoming an old, opulent plant holder. So I wrapped my arms around her. I took in a bunch of breath and I lifted her. Man, she was heavy. But I did it. I lifted her and gingerly and slowly, got her onto the driveway. I painted the bowl with white, waterproofing cement paint, waited a day for it to dry and lifted that lady back on her perch. I filled the bowl with water, plugged the fountain into the electrical source...and it didn't work. Nothing happened. The pump wouldn't engage.

The pump must have burned out last year when the bowl couldn't hold the water. So I had to lift the lady again and removed the pump. I scraped up enough money and went to Lowe's to buy a new one. I put it back together again, lifted the lady back on her perch, plugged it in. And it worked. My lady is back in business and pretty as ever. Eureka! I did it! I was so proud. And when my little girl came over for her regular visit, she said, "The Lady is working!" That made it all the sweeter.

So yeah, Mr. Smoltz and Mr. Giambi. We may be older. We may not be able to do a lot of the things we used to be able to do. But we aren't dead yet. We aren't even incapable yet. If baseball is still in your blood, keep trying and hook up with another team. If it doesn't work out, you know what? Life goes on and there are new victories to win elsewhere. They may come with a lot more aches and pains, but they still feel mighty special.

Good luck to both of you.

Chone Figgins or Bobby Abreu - MVP?

Last night, Chone Figgins showed why he is a serious MVP candidate. He only got on base once via a walk. The rest of the night, he was 0-4 with a strikeout. But that one time he got on base, he stole second, stole third and scored. He rattled Danks, the pitcher, so much that three homers ensued. Meanwhile, the steal of the year, Bobby Abreu, hit a homer, stole a base and scored two runs. Either player could be a viable MVP candidate.

Let's start with Figgins. Two years ago, Figgins played in 115 games and batted .330 with an On Base Percentage of .393. He stole 42 bases in only those 115 games and scored over 80 runs. Then last year, he became quite ordinary. He still stole a lot of bases, but his batting average fell to .276 with an OBP of .367. His OPS+ (82) was the lowest of his career.

But this year, he's been the catalyst at the top of the order and his line of .303/.395/.404 leads up to an OPS+ of 109. He leads the league in runs scored with 87 (in just 105 games). Unlike other years where he has played all over the field, Figgins has been pretty much anchored at third where he is league average in fielding percentage with above league average range.

It's usually the sluggers who get all the MVP votes, but Figgins has been the disruptive, on-base dynamo that makes this Angel offense go.

Bobby Abreu couldn't find a job this spring, remember? The Yankees didn't want him. Nobody wanted him. Then the Angels picked him up for a song (and a few million). He has responded by having one of his best seasons ever. His current line stands at: .322/.416/.458. He has an OPS+ of 128 and it seems like every game, he is on base, scoring a run, or driving in a run. He has 77 RBI, right up there with the leaders. He has scored 80 runs, right behind Figgins. And he has 23 steals in only 28 attempts.

It is hard to see the Angels being nearly as good as they are without either player. But if the Fan had a vote, Bobby Abreu would be the MVP this year.

Game Picks - Friday: August 7, 2009

They call these the dog days of August. And if that is the case, then the picks have fit the theme and have been dogs at least half the time. Livan again pulled the rug out from underneath the picker. The freakin' Royals beat the Mariners. The Angels couldn't be held down for long. The Orioles were a stupid pick. The Marlins are acting like the Nationals and the Nationals are acting like the Nationals. And then there are the Twins. The Twins. The stinking, bumbling, frustrating Twins.

Ah well. At least the Yankees were a correct pick along with the Phillies, the Diamondbacks, the Rangers and the Dodgers. Let's see if today, this picker can turn these dogs into greyhounds.

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Great pitching match up in this game of Carpenter versus Maholm. Have much more faith in the Cardinals offense than the Pirates'.
• The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Garland should do the old veteran thing against the Nats. Balester has shown signs of being pretty good.
• The Tigers over the Twins: The heck with the Twins. Tired of getting them wrong. You watch, they will win tonight.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Another good match up of Beckett versus Burnett.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Romero continues his rookie of the year candidacy.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: Another super match up of Blanton versus Nolasco. Will go with Blanton.
• The Astros over the Brewers: Villanueva again? Not happening.
• The Royals over the Athletics: The thinking man's pitcher, Bannister, will win this game.
• The White Sox over the Indians: The Indians are hot lately, but not against Buehrle.
• The Rockies over the Cubs: Zambrano was hurting his last start. Makes for scary picking in this game.
• The Mets over the Padres: Oliver Perez will walk six, but give up only two hits and win.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Feldman needs to beat Saunders if the Rangers have any chance.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: Good match up of Jurrjens versus Billingsley. Billingsley put his recent struggles behind him on his last start. Jurrjens got cuffed around last time. Tired arm?
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Two good pitchers in King Felix versus Niemann, but the Bay Rays have the better offense.
• The Giants over the Reds: Lincecum!

Yesterday: 5-6
Week: 32-32
Month: 41-38

Is Josh Beckett Overlooked?

When thinking about the last post, the Fan was forced to consider the stud pitchers in baseball. Some of the usual names popped up like Halladay, Santana and Carpenter. Those and maybe a few more are usually considered when making such a list. But what about Josh Beckett. He plays on a team that has gotten national attention the past ten years (granted a team that is wildly loved and vividly hated) that has won two World Series titles. Yet, he isn't usually on the elite pitcher list.

But he should be. And not just because he is 13-4 this year. Since 2005, Beckett is 76-40, giving him an average season (and this year isn't over) of 15-8. But wins and losses aren't everything, of course. He's also struck out 8.5 batters per nine innings over his career and 2.8 walks per nine innings. And his run of walks per nine innings the last three years? Try 1.8, 1.8 and 2.5.

In 2007, Beckett was 20-7 and came in second in the Cy Young voting. Last year, he was only 12-10 with an ERA of 4.03, but the Fan contends that he was just as good last year. More of Beckett's balls in play fell in for hits last year than this year or 2007, so it was probably an unlucky year. His 5.06 strikeouts/walk ration was the best of his career last year.

The Fan isn't sure what it is about Beckett that doesn't put him on the list of elite major league pitchers. He used to be a great talent who got a lot of blisters. Even his www.baseball-reference.com page is sponsored by an organization that says, "More blisters than Ron Mexico." Beckett is also a great money pitcher, as his 7-2 record in post season play indicates as does his 2.72 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 89 innings.

Josh Beckett is among the top five pitchers in baseball and even though he plays for a highly visible team like the Red Sox, he seems to get lost in the shuffle.

Managing Expectations

The Fan was at one of his favorite blogs this morning and the topic was Roy Halladay's lack of run support since he came off the Disabled List a while back. And there is no doubt that Halladay, if he had gotten any support, should have won three or four of those games instead of one. But in this day and age of empowerment when everyone with a computer has an opinion, the following comment followed the blog post:

Wilner is now officially a propagandist! Halladay gave up 5 runs(4 earned) , 10
hits and he's still good??!! The Yankees braodcasters gave mad props to Doc BUT
one of them mentioned the fact that they got 5 runs off of him at Yankee
Stadium, which isn't like Doc. In addition, Doc gave up 10 hits in that 3-2 loss
to Oakland. If anyone think sthat he is the same old Doc ...think again. Thanks
to Ricciardi, who rattled him with all this trade talk, he's off his game. Bad
Job, JP look at what you've done. (sic)

Can we have a reality check, please? The American League's average ERA among all pitchers is 4.43. The average hits per nine innings for the entire league is just over nine (or just over one hit per inning). If a pitcher at his worse is league average, wouldn't you say that is a stud? The problem with guys like Halladay, Carpenter, Santana, Beckett and studs of their ilk is that the expectation is that they will go out every time and throw a shutout. Heck, wouldn't you take Halladay at his worse (remember, league average) than Brad Penny on any given occasion?

The great Johan Santana gets blown up in a game and his ERA shoots up to 3.10. Oh my goodness! He must stink now? What's wrong with Santana! Come on! 3.10 is still a full 1.22 runs below the National League average ERA of 4.22. Give the Fan that guy every game for 30 starts a year and he'll take his chances.

The same thing holds true for studs like Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez. Pujols went through a rough patch recently and the big story was: "What's wrong with Pujols?" A-Rod has gone 60 at bats without a homer. What's wrong with A-Rod? There is nothing wrong that a two-homer game (like Pujols had the other night) won't fix. A-Rod will hit his share before the season is out. It's a long season and even studs aren't perfect.

The expectation thing happens to teams too. The Red Sox and the Dodgers have lost a few games the last couple of weeks. All kinds of analysis have occurred to figure out what's wrong. Umm...there is little wrong with either team. The Dodgers are second in the league (behind the Phillies) in OPS+ and second in the league (behind the Giants) in ERA+. Meanwhile, the Red Sox lead the American League in ERA+ and are fifth in the league in OPS+. That hardly seems like teams to hit the panic button on.

Sometimes you pay for being so good. If David Cook came out on American Idol and sang, "God Bless America" in falsetto, everyone would wonder what was wrong with David Cook. Geez, he just had a bad night. But this Fan bets, that his "bad" week would still sound better than Brittney Spears.

Give this guy a Roy Halladay at his worst and the Fan would be very happy to have it.

Game Picks - Thursday: August 6, 2009

The game picker can't seem to get past mediocrity this week. There are no disaster, but there are no parties either. Just mediocrity. Take for example, picking some kid named Lehr to lose his debut. So what happens? The guy throws a complete game gem. How many rookies throwing their debut get a complete game in this day and age? Against the Cubs no less. Also thought the patient Red Sox would wear down David Price. Oops. That didn't happen as Price was great. Also picked against the Yankees and got burned.

Today is another day and the goal is excellence. The Yankees have a big series with the Red Sox. It's a bit anticlimactic as they have a 3 1/2 game lead in the division. But it would be something if the Yankees can't beat the Red Sox this year. They are 0 for the season so far. It's a short schedule since it's a Thursday, but not as short as usual. Here goes:

• The Twins over the Indians: Come on! The Fan keeps picking the Twins and keeps getting burned. But each day, the Fan sees a matchup like Carmona versus Blackburn and thinks they can't lose this game, right? But they will because the Fan can't win with the Twins.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Volstad has been great lately. The Marlins lost to the Nationals last night and did so in uninspired fashion. They have so many nice pieces, but need a killer instinct.
• The Phillies over the Rockies: Picked against the Phillies yesterday and it was stupid. Won't be stupid two days in a row, especially with Lee pitching.
• The Orioles over the Tigers: Just can't get over how ordinary the Tigers look these days.
• The White Sox over the Angels: Don't know how the White Sox do it. But they keep on doing it.
• The Rangers over the A's: Hunter versus Cahill in a battle of rookies. The Rangers have really blown this series so far.
• The Diamondbacks over the Pirates: Scherzer over Hart.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: The law of averages say the Yankees have to win one of these games and against Smoltz seems to be their best bet. Chamberlain goes for the Yanks.
• The Mariners over the Royals: The Royals will take it on the Chen.
• The Mets over the Padres: Praying to the Livan gods that this is one of his good games and not one of his clunkers.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: Who made this schedule for the Braves? They have been all over the country lately and back and forth at that.

Yesterday: 7-7 (forgot to pick a game, which was fortunate as it would have been a loss)
Week: 27-26 (can you say mediocre?)
Month: 36-32 (yes we can)

Let's Play a Game

Hype can be deceiving. Sometimes a reputation can overshadow the truth. Heck, it happens in the Golden Glove awards every year. But baseball is a game full of surprises. Here are a couple of puzzlers for you.

Pitcher 1: ERA+ = 121, WHIP = 1.313, BB/9 = 3
Pitcher 2: ERA+ = 123, WHIP = 1.222, BB/9 = 3.5

Which one is Jon Lester and which one is Matt Garza? Yup, Garza is Pitcher 2.

Player 1: Batting Average = .214, On Base Percentage = .347
Player 2: Batting Average = .229, On Base Percentage = .346

Which one is Carlos Pena and which one is Dan Uggla? Uggla is Player 2.

Player 1: Batting Average = .285, Runs Batted In = 72
Player 2: Batting Average = .294, Runs Batted In = 70

Which one is Mark Teixeira and which one is Ryan Zimmerman? Zimmerman is Player 2.

Player 1: OPS = .958, Runs Batted In = 74, Total Bases = 231, Batting Average = .283
Player 2: OPS = .973, Runs Batted In = 80, Total Bases = 209, Batting Average = .280

Which player is Mark Reynolds and which one is Adam Dunn? Dunn is Player 2.

Player 1: OPS = .913, Runs Batted In = 60, Errors = 6
Player 2: OPS = .938, Runs Batted In = 65, Errors = 6

Which third baseman is Alex Rodriguez and which one is Pablo Sandoval? A-Rod is Player 1.

Player 1: OPS = .829, Homers = 16, Runs Batted In = 76
Player 2: OPS = .873, Homers = 22, Runs Batted In = 69

Which right fielder is Andre Ethier and which one is Nick Markakis? Ethier is Player 2.

Game Picks - Wednesday: August 5, 2009

It was a night for red ink. Roy Halladay was 16-5 in his career against the Yankees. Now he is 16-6. The White Sox somehow cooled down the red hot Angels. The Kansas City pick looked spectacular until the bullpen blew the game. Ditto for the Marlins who let one get away from the Nationals. And the Twins! Those dang Twins! It is probable that the Fan has not correctly predicted a Twins decision since the dawn of time. They simply defy logic.

Oh well, who needs logic. Perhaps the Fan should try to be "Bones" instead of Mr. Spock. Nah. Here are a Spock-on look at today's games:

• The Cardinals over the Mets: Face it, those star players for the Mets are never coming back.
• The Astros over the Giants: This game has "grimace" written all over it. Moehler for the Astros and some kid named Martinez for the Giants. How can logic pick this game?
• The Braves over the Padres: Gaudin hasn't ever blown this picker away. Hanson has shown flashes of his hype.
• The Diamondbacks over the Pirates: Here the Fan goes picking against Ohlendorf again. The pain of doing so in the past still lingers.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: Happ is good. But now that he's finally lost a game, we'll find out that he's not THAT good.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: The Nats' best pitcher versus a nice looking young arm in Vanden Hurk. Going with experience.
• The Twins over the Indians: Liriano versus Laffey. The Fan knows. He picked the Twins again. What a dope.
• The Tigers over the Orioles: Jackson should be better than Guthrie right? Why can't the Tigers hit lately?
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Like the Jays young pitcher better than Liquid Mitregen.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: Penny has been terrible lately, but the patient Red Sox will allow David Price to walk ten of them.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Will take Harden over some kid named, Lehr. The Red suddenly look like they won't win another game this year.
• The Mariners over the Royals: How could the Tigers let French get away?
• The White Sox over the Angels: Gavin Floyd should beat O'Sullivan.
• The Brewers over the Dodgers: Not a big Looper fan, but man, how can the Dodgers keep pitching Schmidt?

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 20-19
Month: 29-25

Game Picks - Tuesday: August 4, 2009

Another middling day for the game picker yesterday with correctness coming just ahead of imbecility. Sure, the Nationals were picked to beat the Pirates and they did. But just as surely, this picker never saw the Astros beating Matt Cain and the Giants. Manny Parra of the 6.63 ERA threw eight solid innings at the Dodgers before running out of gas in the ninth. He was bailed out (somewhat) by Hoffman. And somehow, the A's beat the Rangers in a low scoring game. Didn't see that one coming either.

The Fan tends to focus more on the negative than on the positive. And, again, there was more positive than negative, so with his chin firmly up, this picker presents his Tuesday game picks:

• The Diamondbacks over the Pirates: Petit outpitches Duke while the Diamondbacks out hit the Pirates.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: This picker just can't fathom Moyer. He's got to have a clunker in there once in a while. He's due.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Really like Josh Johnson.
• The Indians over the Twins: The Fan is totally over his Twins fascination. Which probably means they will start winning.
• The Tigers over the Orioles: Jarrod Washburn makes his Tigers' debut at home. Detroit's park is pitcher friendly. The Orioles are starting another rookie pitcher (Matusz) the picker has never heard of.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Halladay at home? Yeah, he'll do alright.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: An ALCS rematch of Garza versus Lester.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Totally over Cueto. He just can't pitch consistently.
• The Cardinals over the Mets: Watch Albert Pujols break out of his mini-slump against Johan Santana.
• The Astros over the Giants: Sanchez has been kicked around since his perfect game.
• The Royals over the Mariners: Somehow feel better about Hochever than Rowland-Smith.
• The Angels over the White Sox: The Angels are the hottest team on the planet right now.
• The Braves over the Padres: Vazquez should win this one.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: The Rangers keep throwing Holland out there. One of these days it has to pay off.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: You have to pick the Dodgers at home. Manny has to start hitting sooner or later.

Yesterday: 5-4
Week: 13-11
Month: 22-17

Arizona is a Pretty Good Bad Team

There are some bad teams that aren't very good. The Pirates aren't very good. The Athletics aren't very good. The Royals and the Padres aren't very good. But there are some bad teams that are pretty good. The Nationals will end up with the worst record in the majors. But they have a pretty good offense. The Blue Jays do a lot of things well. The Orioles have a dynamic line up. The Indians just need a few dozen pitchers. Another of those bad teams that are pretty darn good are the Diamondbacks.

For some reason, the Diamondbacks don't get out of bed very well. Some people are like that. The Fan's son used to be impossible to get out of bed. His dad one time resorted to pouring water over his head to get him up for school. He used to use his stereo as an alarm clock. The trouble was that it would blare and disturb the whole four generations of the house, but he never woke up. The Diamondbacks are like that.

Well, that has to be qualified a bit. Last year, the Diamondbacks got out of bed really well. They started 19-8 in April. But May and June were pitiful and they ended up a game under .500 at the halfway mark. They played .522 baseball the rest of the way out. This year, they really started poorly. After the first three months of the 2009 season, the D-backs were 31-46. But in July, the were 14-12 and were no pushovers. A part of the reason is batting. Their month by month OPS goes like this, starting in April: .703, .732, .738 and .776 (July).

The pitching follows a similar pattern. The OPS against the pitching staff for each month, starting in April: .745, .777, .720, .709. As is pretty logical, if the pitching OPS against is higher than the batting OPS, it pretty much ends up in more losses than wins. The starters have been fairly consistent, but the relief staff started out horribly and by July have improved to an OPS against of only .673. That's a marked improvement.

When you look at the team as a whole, it just doesn't feel like they should have this bad a record. Five of their starters have an OPS+ over 100. Mark Reynolds, strikeouts notwithstanding, has become a stud. He hit two more homers Monday night and now has 32. His OPS is around .950, which is outstanding. Stephen Drew hasn't quite blossomed yet as expected, but his batting is above league average. Second baseman, Felipe Lopez is batting over .300 with a .369 OBP. Justin Upton is becoming a star and his .922 OPS is just the beginning of what he is going to be able to do. And finally, Miguel Montero has become an excellent offensive catcher.

They have three real problems: Center, Left and First Base. Center field has been a bit of a disaster. Chris Young is sitting at a 67 OPS+. Equally disastrous has been first base. Chad Tracy flopped as did Tony Clark, who was eventually released. Josh Whitesell might be the answer. He hasn't started to hit much yet, but his OBP of .359 holds promise and is far above Tracy and Clark. Left field started with Eric Byrnes. A likeable player who was a star of the highlight shows in the past has a 58 OPS+ and just couldn't get untracked. Gerardo Parra has been out there lately and his average isn't bad at .274, but he's only walked 15 times in 292 plate appearances.

The starting rotation has four out of the five spots doing fairly well. All four are above league average in ERA+ and they are led by Danny Haren who is a serious Cy Young contender. The fifth spot has been awful. They've tried Petit (6.75 ERA), Buckner (8.63 ERA) and Brian Augentein (7.94 ERA). Between the three of those guys, they have thrown 100 innings and have given up 23 homers.

As mentioned earlier, the relief corp has really jelled. The team now has seven relievers with an ERA+ over 100. Only Scott Schoeneweis has been off his career average and it seems understandable considering the personal issues he has dealt with this year. Chad Qualls, meanwhile, has become an effective closer and has only walked a Rivera-like five batters in 49 innings of work.

There are a lot of good parts to this Arizona team and they will not be easy to face down the stretch. If Whitesell can hit a little to go along with his patience and the D-backs perhaps move up some talent to try in left and center and this is a pretty talented team. At least a lot better than their current record seems to indicate.

Another Great Writer

Rob Neyer has gone on vacation, his first in years of reading his stuff. His blog has been kept busy with a guest writer named Steve Boffum. This is the first time the Fan has ever heard of Mr. Boffum, but he is terrific. In fact, he might be nearly as talented as Joe Posnanski.

It looks like the Fan has a new writer to follow on a regular basis. For those of you who want to read more stuff from him, try here.

Feeling for Melvin Mora

Melvin Mora is 37 years old and it was in the space earlier in the spring where it was predicted that a marked decline would be noticed in this solid player and unfortunately, it has come to pass. The guy has made millions, so it is hard to feel that badly for him, but he hasn't come to grips with the fact that he just isn't the player he used to be. That disbelief led to him exploding all over his manager in the press since being benched recently. It has to be hard coming to grips with the end of productivity.

Mora has a lifetime 108 OPS+. That's a good and solid career. Along the way, he had one fantastic year (2004) where his line was an incredible: .340/.419/.578. He led the American League in OBP that year. He even had a good year last year with 23 homers and 104 RsBI. But this year, due in some part to nagging injuries, he has put up a line (after 316 plate appearances) of .256/.321/.330. His OPS+ is sitting at 70. To show that another way, he is 70% the player of the league average. That's not going to cut it and his manager had to make a move.

But Mora felt disrespected. His manager, Trembley, responded politely by stating that he was saddened by that reaction. But there is no way a manager can pull the plug on a long time major league player without that player feeling that way. It's as impossible a situation as a manager can be in.

An established, long-time veteran has a lot of pride in his ability and accomplishment. Through the years of struggle, the player always feels that they are a game away from breaking out of a slump and getting back to the player they have always been. But what happens when the player is too old to bounce back? When that player can no longer bounce back from little injuries like in the past, it is difficult for that player to admit that they have lost a step or bat speed.

You have to feel for Melvin Mora. He's been a pro. But his manager made the right decision and it is hoped here that Mora finds some grace in the situation and takes an honest look in the mirror.

Game Picks - Monday: August 3, 2009

Sunday was another day where this picker was just slightly more correct than incorrect. In other words, another kissing your aunt sort of day. Right off the bat, the game picker got Pavanoed by Cleveland. What was that--his first good start since May? Sheesh. Then some kid named Norris totally shut down the high-flying Cardinals. The Rangers and Brewers finally got off the crappy train. And, in front of a national audience, Jurrjens threw up a stinker.

On the plus side, the underdog pick of the day worked out as the Royals surprised the Bay Rays. The Yankees finally beat a "Sox" team. The Blue Jays had a great game. The Diamondbacks beat the Mets as predicted. The Marlins crushed the Cubs' closer. And the Nationals won a game. Hurrah.

It's a short schedule today with only nine games. Here is how the Fan sees them:

• The Royals over the Bay Rays: Can Greinke give the Royals a two game winning streak?
• The Nationals over the Pirates: Mock versus Morton. The Fan hates games like this. Anything can happen.
• The Tigers over the Orioles: Verlander rights the ship against a good looking rookie named Tillman.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Wells has been very good for the Cubs and Harang hasn't had a good game in forever.
• The Diamondbacks over the Mets: Haran versus Figueroa. A no-brainer, right? Been burned so many times by supposed no-brainers.
• The Giants over the Astros: Mike Hampton doesn't look like he'll get comeback player of the year.
• The Padres over the Braves: Have no faith in Kawakami and Latos has looked good in his first career starts.
• The Rangers over the A's: There is no way the Rangers should win with Nippert pitching, but somehow, they will.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Kershaw is the only player on the Dodgers that won't have jet lag, but he is the only one that matters.

Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 8-7
Month: 17-13

The Yankees are Confusing

The Yankees have now lost three straight to the Chicago White Sox. Their three and a half game lead over the Red Sox has evaporated. All the while, they keep mixing up those who are playing and some of the decisions aren't making sense. Here are just a couple of examples:

They traded for Jerry Hairston, Jr. Any fan of the Fan knows that any Hairston is a hairball in the life of the Fan. The Fan doesn't understand how they exist, why they have survived in the majors this long, etc. Okay, perhaps the Yankees know more than this writer. So anyway, they got the guy and immediately put him in left field in place of Johnny Damon. Supposedly, Hairston is a better option against a lefty than Damon. Damon has a lifetime OPS against lefties of .746. Of course, that's not nearly as high as his OPS against righties. Hairston's lifetime OPS against ALL pitchers is .700. Give the Fan Damon any day.

Okay, all that being said, part of Hairston's value is being able to play multiple positions including all the infield positions. If that is true, what is the need for Cody Ransom? Last night, Ransom played first and went 0-4 with three strikeouts. This was after Shelley Duncan was sent down (after never playing a game since his call up). Duncan has 27 homers in AAA this year. Duncan wouldn't have been a better alternative at first than Ransom? He couldn't have been worse. Ransom, after all, is batting .190 this year. And Duncan is a right-handed batter and could have faced the lefty, Danks.

All in all, it wouldn't have mattered because the Yankees' pitching got battered for the second straight day. All the funky line up changes can't change the fact that the Yankees will live and die by what kind of pitching they get. If they keep throwing Mitre out there, they are crazy. And Bruney and Coke need to be effective out of the bullpen to make this work and they have not been effective.

But probably the most confusing thing about the Yankees is their plight against all teams with "Sox" in their name. They play .666 baseball against every other team, but are 0-11 against the Red Sox and the White Sox. How can that be? Last week, they looked like the best team in the world. This week, they look like the Nationals. It sure is confusing.

This Baseball Expert Still Sucks

You can be a veteran of over forty-five years of observing baseball and still not know anything. That's either the great thing about writing about baseball or one of the most frustrating things. It depends on how you look at it. Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski, two of the most popular writers (and for good reasons), admit they are wrong all the time. So it shouldn't come as any surprise that the thoughts put into posts here at the FanDome are as often wrong as they are right. Despite what this writer may think, Ricciardi makes the right moves more often than not. Despite what an expert this writer may think he is, the correctness average is not much higher than Barry Bonds' On Base Percentage.

Take the Pirates for example. After they traded everyone away over the last month or so, the Fan didn't think they had a chance to win any games the rest of the year. In fact, at the trade deadline's final gun when the Pirates traded their infield away and much of their bullpen, the Fan picked against them every game. Yet, the Pirates have won every game since the deadline. Whuh? Part of the reason is Andrew McCutchen.

McCutchen hit three homers last night and had another hit besides. He now has a line of: .293/.349/.488. Not bad for a lead off guy. And he is playing great defense in centerfield. He has also stolen nine bases in nine attempts. His only bugaboo may be that he strikes out too often. But, he seems on his way to being a great player that the Pirates hoped he would be when they traded away McLouth to open centerfield for him.

McCutchen in a first round draft pick (2005) and he is only 22 years old. His minor league line after 1967 at bats was: .286/.369/.423. Those numbers are awfully close to those of his predecessor, Nate McLouth, whose minor league line was: .292/.367/.427. If those numbers are any indication, McCutchen should have a successful career. McLouth has been an above league average batter now for five straight seasons.

But then again, the Fan could be wrong. He is at least half the time, remember?

Game Picks - Sunday: August 2, 2009

Not a bad Saturday for the picker. Not a wonderful day, but not bad. Never saw McCutchen hitting three homers (more on that in the next post). Wandy left early, leaving that pick out to dry. Still can't figure out why the Twins aren't winning. Also can't figure out why the Yankees can't beat any team that has "Sox" in its team name. And finally, this picker has to come to grips with the fact that the Rangers aren't a contender, no matter how much the Fan wants them to be.

Sunday, the best day of baseball all week with all its day games and a full schedule, should shape up this way:

• The Tigers over the Indians: The Tigers should win even if Galarraga is pitching. Why? Because it's another Pavano experience.
• The Rockies over the Reds: In a good matchup, Marquis should beat Arroyo.
• The Diamondbacks over the Mets: Thinking that Garland is due for a good game.
• The Nationals over the Pirates: Balester has been a bright spot for the Nats.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: The Yankees gave them some life and they are taking it.
• The Royals over the Bay Rays: This is the upset pick of the day. And what an upset it would be!
• The Yankees over the White Sox: Sabathia versus Buehrle. The game should be over in less than two hours.
• The Twins over the Angels: Why oh why does the Fan keep picking the Twins? Why?
• The Cardinals over the Astros: Whenever the Fan hears, "Wainwright," he thinks of Dudley DoRight for some reason.
• The Padres over the Brewers: How can the Brewers compete if they keep throwing guys like Villanueva out there?
• The Phillies over the Giants: Barry Zito should spend some time with Jamie Moyer and find out how to win with no stuff at all.
• The Blue Jays over the A's: Romero is better than Mazzaro allowing him to win the battle of the Ro's.
• The Marlins over the Cubs: What a wild game yesterday! But Nolasco should quiet things down.
• The Braves over the Dodgers: Just when the Dodgers have had their butts kicked this series, they have to finish with Jurrjens.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: Feldman may be tired. And this Fan is rooting for Ian Snell to come back with a vengeance.

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 48-37
Month: 9-6