An Ode to John Tudor

This post was sparked by an article over at baseball-reference.com. The post listed a bunch of pitchers who pitched over 1500 innings and finished with an ERA+ of 100 or better but never made the All Star team. At the top of the list was John Tudor. Sometimes things spark a memory when you've loved the game as long as this Fan has. John Tudor is a pleasant memory. If you opened the dictionary for the meaning of "crafty left-hander," you would find a picture of John Tudor.

As mentioned many times here in the past, this Fan grew up in New Jersey, but when young and dumb, went to college in Manchester, New Hampshire, met a girl and never again left New England. Married by 1977, this couple settled in Rochester, New Hampshire and lived there for many years before moving just over the border to Lebanon, Maine. In those early days, there was no cable. An antenna on the television allowed us to get just a few stations and Channel 38 was one of them and they broadcast the Red Sox games. Since John Tudor made his debut in 1979, the timing was just about right.

Tudor was never a great prospect. He pitched for Georgia Southern University, hardly a big-time sports name. Upon his senior year, he was drafted by the New York Mets, but not until the 21st round. Tudor didn't sign with them and six months later was drafted by the Red Sox in the January Secondary draft in the third round in January of 1976.

Tudor was never any great shakes in the minors but the talent in the Red Sox in the late 1970s had dwindled and Tudor got a call up in 1979 and he made six starts. They didn't go well. He gave up way too many hits and his ERA was over six. He was much better in 1980 when he pitched in sixteen games and made eleven starts. he went 8-5 with an ERA of 3.02. But 1981 did not follow as a good season. He again pitched sixteen times and that year, he simply had trouble keeping the ball in the park. Fenway, with that Monster in left field is not a good place for left-handed pitching, especially the non-fireball kind.

But 1981 was Tudor's last bad year. He would never again post a season less than 100 in ERA+ and many times he was well over it. But those early 80s weren't good Red Sox teams. And though Tudor pitched well in 1982 and 1983, in 65 starts, he only finished with a 26-22 record. The Red Sox had started to build pitching talent in the minors by that time and Tudor became expendable. After the 1983 season, he was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Mike Easler, a good hitter who did well in Boston.

Tudor pitched one season in Pittsburgh. They weren't a good team. How bad were they? Well, Dale Berra was the starting shortstop. Does that tell you? But despite a finish well down in the standings, Tudor made 32 starts and finished with a 3.27 ERA. But again, he had to settle for a 12-11 middling record. After that season, the Pirates traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals along with Brian Harper for George Kendrick and a career minor league player named Steve Barnard. It should go down as one of the best trades the Cardinals ever made and one of the worst the Pirates ever made.

John Tudor was stupendous for the Cardinals in 1985. Harper saw only limited playing time that season for the Cardinals and it was his only season for that team. Harper really was a late bloomer and it wasn't until he hit his thirties that he became a starting player for the Twins and he had some nice seasons there. But Tudor was the bomb right away. How good was he in 1985?

Well, he went 21-8 and finished that season with a 1.93 ERA in 36 starts. He pitched 14 complete games and led the league with a whopping ten shutouts. He also led the league in WHIP with an amazing 0.938. He only gave up 0.5 homers per nine innings and walked only 1.6 batters per nine innings. How did he not get a call to the All Star game?

Tudor was very good the first half of that season. But his record stood at 10-7 and his ERA at the break was 2.27. The ERA says he was overlooked. But the record wasn't spectacular enough. It was the second half that Tudor dominated. In the second half, Tudor went 11-1 with an ERA of 1.52. It was probably one of the greatest second halves of pitching ever. But it really started the month before the All Star break.

At the end of May in 1985, Tudor was 1-7 with an ERA in the mid-threes. But from the end of May until the end of the season, Tudor went 19-1! Wow! By the end of the season, batters had a feeble .538 OPS against him. Left-handed batters were even worse with an OPS against of .507. Amazing.

After a season like that, he would be the Cy Young Award winner right? Wrong. 1985 was the year of Dwight Gooden and his 24-4 record. Gooden was clearly the best pitcher in the National League and was easily the right choice. Think back though to the beginning of this article. Can you imagine if Tudor had signed with the Mets in that 1975 draft? He and Gooden would have the 1-2 best pitching seasons of 1985 and it could have been for the same team!

Tudor's 1985 season mirrored that of his team. The St. Louis Cardinals went a pedestrian 8-11 in April and by the end of May were only 24-21 and in fourth place, four games back of the leaders. But the Cardinals took off after that. Tudor led a great pitching staff and teamed with Joaquin Andujar (21-12) and Danny Cox (18-9, 2.88) to anchor a very good rotation rounded out with serviceable work from Kurt Kepshire and an aging Bob Forsch. They also had a great bullpen grounded with terrific seasons from Jeff Lahti and Ken Dayley.

The 1985 Cardinals won 101 games and then dispatched the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series, four games to two. They then went on to one of the most thrilling World Series ever played against the Kansas City Royals in a series those who live in Missouri will never forget. Ultimately, the Royals prevailed, four games to three. Tudor pitched three games in that series. He was great in the first two. He only gave up a run in the first game, a win. And then he pitched a shutout to win Game Four. But pitching on short rest in Game Seven, Tudor didn't have anything left and the Royals jumped all over him and the relievers that followed to win the Series.

John Tudor had been everything for that Cardinals team. He pitched 275 innings in the regular season and another thirty and two-thirds innings in the post season. Looking back, it was probably too much. He was still good the following season in 30 starts, but not as good. He had no shutouts and only three complete games and went 13-7 with a still good 2.92 ERA. But it wasn't enough and the Cardinals missed the playoffs.

The following season, 1987, injuries plagued Tudor and he only made 16 starts. But they were well placed starts. Most of them were in the second half and Tudor went 8-1 down the stretch to finish at 10-2 with a 3.84 ERA (high, no doubt, due to his first four starts, which were terrible). The timing of his run in the second half was fortuitous for the Cardinals for in this year, they started very strongly, but struggled down the stretch. Tudor kept them on top with his well-timed wins.

The 1987 Cardinals faced the San Francisco Giants in the NL Championship Series and won a hard-fought 4-3 series win. Tudor made two starts and was brilliant with a 1.76 ERA. His shutout in Game Six allowed Danny Cox to win Game Seven to give the Cards a come-from-behind victory in that series.

Tudor didn't get the ball until Game Three of the World Series against the Twins that season. But he got the win in a brilliant performance and only gave up a run. But unfortunately, much like two years earlier, Tudor didn't have anything in Game Six, pitching again with short rest. He got bombed in that game, though much of his runs were inherited runs in the fifth inning given up by his relief.

The Cardinals fell hard after that season and were never a factor in 1988. They fell well below .500, though no fault of Jon Tudor. Tudor made his first 21 starts that season and had a stellar 2.29 ERA with four complete games and a shutout. But since the Cardinals were out of the race fairly early, they pulled the plug and traded Tudor to the Dodgers for Pedro Guerrero. The Dodgers were fighting for the NL West title and needed Tudor.

Tudor pitched well down the stretch for the Dodgers. His 4-3 record for them wasn't awe-inspiring, but his 2.41 ERA certainly was. The Dodgers won the division and then beat the Mets in the NL Championship Series. Tudor made one ineffective start in that series with no decision. The Dodgers then went on to play the Oakland A's in the World Series. That of course, was the Series of the famous Kirk Gibson homer off of Dennis Eckersley in Game One. The Dodgers won the first two games of that World Series and John Tudor was scheduled to start Game Three. He pitched an inning and a third of scoreless ball, but his elbow was toast and he was done for the year. The A's won that game, 2-1. It was their only win of that World Series. So at least, John Tudor finally got a ring.

The elbow cost the then 35 year old John Tudor almost the entire 1989 season. He only pitched 14+ albeit effective innings. After that season, he became a free agent and signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, his old team. It was a beautiful swan song for the team and the pitcher.

The 1990 Cardinals were a really bad team. They went through three managers in one season including the great Whitey Herzog, Red Schoendienst and Joe Torre. But nothing could save that team that season. But you can't blame John Tudor. At the age of 36, Tudor made 25 appearances including 22 starts and went 12-4 with an ERA of 2.40. It was a testament to Tudor's pitching savvy that despite nothing left in his arm (he only struck out 3.9 batters per nine innings that season), he was able to bamboozle opposing batters that whole season. He pitched his last shutout and complete game that season too.

It was a lovely parting gift for Tudor and he retired the following season. John Tudor finished with a winning percentage of .619 in twelve seasons and finished with a career 3.32 ERA, good for a very impressive career ERA+ of 125. He was always a class act and perhaps paved the way for other crafty left-handers like Tom Glavine and Buehrle. Tudor has remained out of the limelight since his retirement and has been long gone. But he'll never be forgotten...at least by this writer.

Game Picks - Tuesday: April 12, 2011

Did you ever have a successful day or event and felt sheepish about it? That was yesterday for this game picker. Take the Blue Jays - Mariners game. The pick was that the Mariners would win because of King Felix. Well, King Felix was not royally treated by the Blue Jays and they built a six run lead. Bad pick right? That's what the Fan thought. That's what Kryss (long time commenter here and welcome back!) thought. But inexplicably, the Mariners--the same team that can't score normally--scored seven runs in the last two innings to win the game. Good pick, wrong reasons. Sorry Blue Jays fans, that had to suck.

But you know what? The Fan will take it because the ball bounces both ways. It doesn't matter that Sam Fuld, of all people, would hit four extra base hits to help make the Bay Rays pick correct. It was a good pick. We'll call them broken bat hits. They still count on the scorecard.

Okay, what are we looking at for Tuesday?

• The Rangers over the Tigers: This pick has every danger sign imaginable going for it. The Rangers are bound to lose some time. But Brad Penny is not the answer for the Tigers, who have had to open with one heck of a tough schedule. C. J. Wilson with the win.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Hardy was a tough loss for the Orioles as he anchored their defense. Tillman throws too many early pitches and A. J. Burnett looks much better this year.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Kevin Correia has been surprisingly good. But Marcum should be better and the Brewers are starting to play really well together.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: Blanton pitched four good innings last time out and then got hit hard after that. He should bounce back. Livan is hard to pick against. It's a pick that usually bites. But the Fan will take his chances.
• The Rockies over the Mets: Want to pick Niese and the Mets, but the Mutts look like they aren't responding well to Terry Collins. That's just how it looks here. Plus, Emil Rogers was really good his last start and is pitching with purpose.
• The Braves over the Marlins: The Braves haven't started well and two bad starts by Tommy Hanson is one of the reasons. The Fan is counting on him bouncing back in this one and beating Volstad and the Marlins.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Tough call here. David Price versus Jon Lester is an electric match up.
• The Astros over the Cubs: Myers is the Astros best pitcher and the Cubs counter with James Russell making his first major league start. Not a good combination for the Cubbies.
• The Royals over the Twins: The Fan has a man-crush on Jeff Francis and wishes a certain New York team had picked him up. Francis beats Duensing and the struggling Twins.
• That Athletics over the White Sox: Another tough pick. Jackson has looked like an ace. But haven't we seen that a dozen times before? Cahill, fresh off his new contract, should pitch with confidence and shut down the White Sox.
• The Padres over the Reds: Upset pick of the day. Sam LaCure was decent for the Red in his first start, but reality sets in this time. Richard has a good game at home.
• The Angels over the Indians: The Indians' winning streak comes to an end as they get buzz-sawed by Danny Haran. Carmona pitches well in the loss.
• The Blue Jays over the Mariners: Love this kid, Pineda, but Ricky Romero has been awesome thus far. The Mariners can soak in their dramatic win, but they won't walk eleven times in this one.
• The Giants over the Dodgers: Tim Lincecum. Enough said? Yeah, the Fan thinks so, especially against Billingsley.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Chris Carpenter is still the ace. Galarraga is throwing well, but the Cardinals are past due for a breakout streak.

Yesterday: 7-3
Week: 13-12
Month: 76-66
Season: 76-66
Games of the Day: 4-8

It's Time to Retire Tim Wakefield

Monday night's game with the Tampa Bay Rays was/is (it's still going as this is being written) just one of those blowouts that happen during a season. And for sure, the story after the game and in tomorrow's articles and posts will be the pasting that Daisuke Matsuzaka received at the hands of the formerly punch-less Bay Rays. Perhaps the stories will be even more about Sam Fuld's almost-cycle (he only needs a single currently). But this post isn't about any of that. This story is about everyone's favorite knuckleball pitcher, Tim Wakefield. It's terrible to even type this, but it must be said. He's done. He's too old and he needs to be released.

In fact, this observer felt that way in Spring Training after watching him in a few of those games. But then the season started and Wakefield appeared in four games and his ERA was 3.00 in six innings and everyone said that the old guy still had it. But he didn't. Not really. His BABIP for those six innings was .000. That's right, .000. He was throwing atom balls. His ERA may have been 3.00 but his FIP was 6,86.

Sure, it would be easy to say that the season is early. But then you have to look at last year. Last year, he finished with an 82 ERA+ and his worst ERA and his lowest WAR since 2000. That was eleven years ago. It would also be easy to want to continue this love affair for this unique talent that has made us smile for nineteen seasons.

Residing up here in the northern reaches of New England, this Fan has watched him for most of those years, . He's been an institution. On a team full of athletes and sluggers, he was our Everyman. We smiled when he threw his fastball for a strike and it registered 72 on the radar gun. Hey, that's not far from what we could do. We could relate to this guy more than most ball players.

And his fan base and his long term service to the Red Sox probably puts an emotional blinder on Terry Francona  and Theo Epstein. That's understandable. But this team doesn't need a mascot. They need someone younger that can more consistently get the job done. If you want to make him a $4 million mascot, retire him and let him become the team spokesman or something.

After the Matsuzaka massacre, the Red Sox called on Wakefield because it was already 7-0. This Fan watched him jog onto the field and toward the pitching mound. He looked like a middle-aged guy with a giddy-up stride trying to get across the street to the mailbox before the traffic caused him to pause for five minutes. He immediately picked off B. J. Upton because Upton has these brain farts five or six times a season. One out. The next batter hit an atom ball to Pedroia, who quickly started the double-play that ended the innings. The ESPN announcers were effusive in their praise for the old guy.

By the time that Francona came out and got Wakefield after three plus innings, the old guy had given up eight base runners and five runs. By the last of it, the announcers were softening the blow by saying that Wakefield must be understandably out of gas. No, he isn't out of gas, he's out of time.

It's not like Tim Wakefield has kept himself in great shape. His newfound portliness makes him look like he was on the same banquet circuit as Joe Maddon this past off season. Maybe if Wakefield had kept working himself physically, he wouldn't look like an old man now. But he didn't and he does.

There were signs of this last year. Whenever a team bunted and Wakefield was on the mound, the old guy couldn't move. He had no chance to field the ball and get the out. His fielding bible scores gave him a -2 runs saved on defense and a -4 total defensive runs saved. In other words, he didn't save any runs with his fielding, he cost them. Again, this Fan has watched Wakefield for a long time and he used to move much better than this. He was a pretty good athlete at one time. He isn't any more.

It's not easy to write a piece like this. Tim Wakefield is a beloved figure in Boston and New England. He means a lot to his team as one of the last holdovers from both championships. He's had a lot of great moments and has been highly versatile. He was even the Red Sox closer for a time in 1999. Only Roger Clemens has more wins in a Red Sox uniform.

But, it's time, Boston. It's time to give him a grand send off. Have your Tim Wakefield day. Put a plague out there somewhere on the field. Sure, even retire his number. All of those would perfectly suit the old warrior who has meant so much to the team and the area. But making him some kind of mascot to come in and look old and creaky in blow out games doesn't do any service to him or your fans. Some times, old horses just need to be put out to pasture.

It's well past that time for Tim Wakefield. It hurts to say it, but that's the reality we're living here.

The Indians' Fast Start

Manny Acta was never a favorite here in the FanDome, but you have to give the man some credit for the Indians' fast start. Not only do they sit on top of the AL Central, but their 7-2 record isn't a fluke. They are +15 in runs scored versus runs allowed and are winning with the long ball and with small ball (as their suicide squeeze bunt win the other day showed). Let's take a closer look at this team to see what's under the hood.

Offensively, the Indians are hitting the ball really well so far despite their best player, Shin-Soo Choo, off to a slow start. To be sure 36 year old, Orlando Cabrera is not going to hit .375. He is a career .274 batter with occasional pop and is playing second base, a move in response to his age. But by all mean, he seems to be a positive influence on shortstop, Asdrubal Cabrera. The younger Cabrera is off to a great start, but it's not a start out of line with his career. He's a .285 career hitter and him hitting .312 doesn't seem a stretch for a 26 year old hitting his stride. The three homers is a surprise. His lack of plate discipline is the only thing that brings up warning bells. He's struck out 10 times in 38 at bats and has only walked twice.

Travis Hafner isn't going to hit .370. But perhaps his shoulder is stronger than it has been in the last few years and he could return at least part ways back to the kind of killer he was five years ago. He used to be one of the most feared hitters in baseball and it's certainly possible for him to have an excellent year. It is impressive that he's only struck out five times against three walks. He's hit two homers so far. Is 30 out of the question? Not really.

Third baseman, Jack Hannahan, is hitting solidly at .286 with an OPS of .891. It's hard to quantify what Hannahan can do since he is 31 years old and getting the first solid playing time of his career. His nine years in the minors show a guy who should give you a .781 OPS with only occasional power, a decent eye and a few too many strikeouts. He'll come to earth a bit, and won't provide the kind of power at third that most teams like, but he seems solid enough.

Michael Brantley is only going to be 24 in May. He's been another nice surprise as he is hitting .303 with a .368 on base percentage. Those numbers are right in line with his minor league numbers, so it's not a stretch that Brantley can put up those kinds of numbers. He doesn't have any power, but he has good speed and he should be fine at the top of the order.

Carlos Santana isn't off to a blazing start, but the young catcher is going to hit. His current slash line of .268/.316/.353 isn't very impressive and he only has one extra base hit. But give him 500 plate appearances and he'll be fine. The same can't be said with any kind of optimism for Matt LaPorta. LaPorta's .231 average is right in line with his career line of .232 and his on base percentage is down. Maybe this is just who he is and is not, at 25, going to be the star the Indians hoped he would be.

One thing you can be sure of and that is Shin-Soo Choo will hit. His track record has been one of the better kept secrets in the majors. He isn't hitting yet, but he will.

There will be some regression in the Indians' current offensive production. That would be offset some when Choo and Santana get going. Sizemore will be back at some point but you have to wonder how he will do. The team is a little thin behind the starters. Austin Kearns offers nothing, but Lou Marson, Shelly Duncan and Adam Everett are decent spot players.

The nice thing about all of these offensive players is that they are good defensively (even Kearns is adequate). They have made only four errors all season and all of their starters are in the positive numbers for zone ratings. And so we've determined that the offense and defense can keep the Indians competitive. How about the pitching?

Of course, a lot of the Indians' season success will depend on the starting rotation. They have two very good members on the top with Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson. Carmona was lit up his first start, but was really, really good his second time around. Masterson is 2-0 and really seems to have figured out how to be a successful starter. The Fan likes those two on top. The next three offer problems.

Josh Tomlin is 2-0 after his first two starts with an ERA of 2.68. But this Fan doesn't buy it. He's struck out seven batters against six walks. It's possible for him to be a league average pitcher and that would be fine if the top two do their jobs. But he isn't as good as he is showing early on.

Mitch Talbot has to find a way to keep his pitch count down. He seems afraid to attack the strike zone and the other day threw 102 pitches in four and a third innings. He has an excellent strikeout rate, but he needs to throw more strikes. Can he do it? Possibly, but we'll see. He certainly has a better chance at doing well than Carlos Carrasco, who seems destined to be a pitcher who finishes with an ERA in the mid-five range.

The Indians need three quality starts in every five appearances, and that is certainly possible with this rotation. Whether that will happen or not really will determine how far this Indians team can go in 2011.

The bullpen has been quite good. Chris Perez is a quality closer and hasn't given up a run yet in 2011. Tony Sipp hasn't given up a walk or a run in five innings of work. Rafael Perez walks too many batters, but so far has walked that tight rope and hasn't given up any runs. If you have those three at the end of the game, you're in pretty good shape. Chad Durbin has yet to show his usual form and could be a nice addition once he gets going. The bullpen has no depth beyond that, so again, the starters have to deliver the game to the back end of the bullpen for this to work all season long.

The Indians are currently third in the league in scoring and third in preventing runs. That combination has led to their 7-2 record. They really are improved from the horror of last year and it is conceivable for this team to win 85 games. It isn't conceivable at this point for them to stay as good as they are now, but it would be a fun story, would it not? The White Sox look like the team this year, but the Indians could surprise a lot of people.

Game Picks - Monday: April 11, 2011

Remember that great day on Saturday? Well, a lot of it was given back on Sunday. It wasn't a good day. It looked like the Reds had pulled out their game and then the bullpen exploded. The Mariners kicked the ball around for Bedard. Cole Hamel and Josh Beckett showed their first starts were flukes. No, it just wasn't a good day. And like the Bay Rays, the Game of the Day feature just can't buy a win. That feature now has six straight losses.

It's raining here, but at least it is somewhat warm. But to quote the Carpenters, "Rainy days and Mondays always get me down." Let's see if these pick can't provide a pick-me-up:

• The Tigers over the Rangers: Yeah, the teams are going in opposite directions, but you have to pick Verlander over Ogando, don't you?
• The Mets over the Rockies: Pelfrey has looked bad so far. But Hammel wasn't great his first time out either and has lost his only outing at Citi Field. Mets with the win.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Got to believe that Hellickson will bamboozle the Red Sox while Dice-K gives up enough runs to lose.
• The Cubs over the Astros: Dempster hasn't exactly been throwing lights out. But neither is Figueroa. The Cubs out-score the weak hitting Astros.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Going with Braden over Buehrle since Buehrle is 4-13 lifetime against Oakland. Braden will have to be better than last time out though.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: The Cards hit better yesterday, have McClellan on the mound and Enright will implode like Enron.
• The Padres over the Reds: Impossible game to pick. You never know what Volquez will do nor how Latos will respond in his first start of the year. Going with the home team in a game that might be a bullpen affair.
• The Indians over the Angels: Another impossible game. They all look difficult, don't they? Talbot? A kid making his MLB debut for the Angels (Tyler Chatwood). Who knows.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Going with Kershaw over Bumgarner. Bumgarner is at home and seems to pitch better on the road. Kershaw can be no-hit stuff on any given night.

And the Game of the Day

• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: How can you ever pick against Felix Hernandez? You can't and be sane.

Yesterday: 6-9
Week: 6-9
Month: 69-63
Season: 69-63
Games of the Day: 3-8

Backup Catchers Suck

Just about every team has a starting catcher. Few teams platoon catchers. The Reds may be one of them. But as a rule, teams have a Number One guy behind the plate. Some of them are very good such as McCann and Mauer. Some are very bad such as Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez (at this stage in his career). But unlike just about every other position, catchers aren't asked to play 150 games in a season. Squatting  for nine or more innings a game is extremely challenging physically and few are allowed to play behind the plate more 135 games or so.

In fact, only a handful of catchers played 130 games or more. They are: Brian McCann (who led all catchers in games), Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, Kurt Suzuki and Mike Wieters. And even they played a few games at DH or another position to get some rest. All this means that a backup catcher is going to play thirty or more games a season. The real problem with playing so many games with backup catchers is that for most big league teams, backup catching is a vast wasteland of players who aren't very good.

To prove this point, the Fan took all catchers from 2010 that played between 20 and 60 games. Why those totals? Well, if you caught more than 60 times, you're more in a platoon situation than in a backup situation. And yes, a few good performances are missed by making the range up to 81 games such as Josh Thole and Ryan Hanigan. But you also miss a bunch of poor ones such as Jason Castro and Koyle Hill. So it's not like we're going to skew the numbers any by making the range a little larger. And any less than 20 games behind the plate are really cup-of-coffee-type players who really shouldn't figure into our conclusions.

So after defending the games played range for this little study, here is what the Fan came up with. If you add up all the plate appearances by all those in the range, you get 723 plate appearances by these backup catchers. That's just about right for a full season of games for a starting player at most other positions. As a whole, those plate appearances did not go over very well.

Adding up all the plate appearances, at bats, hits, total bases, walks, HBPs, extra base hits and everything else and by doing the divisions (the Fan loves Microsoft Excel by the way), you get the final accumulated slash line: .223/.299/.335. Yeah, that's what the Fan says, "Ugh." That's a .634 accumulated OPS for all of these catchers. That means they were as bad as the worst full time players in baseball last year.

Of course, they added no stolen bases, hit only 11 homers, 2 triples and 34 doubles. They only walked 8.7 percent of the time and struck out 25.5 percent of the time. Okay, you can now commence in telling the Fan that these guys are good in the clubhouse or good at handling pitchers or good behind the plate or whatever you want to add in here. But the bottom line is that these guys are a total drag on a team's offense when they play.

The average age of these players was 30. There were some in this group like Carlos Santana, who was supposed to be the starting catcher but got hurt. And then there were a bunch like Brad Ausmus and Gregg Zaun, the ancients. Most are between 28 and 32 years of age.

Of all these catchers, only three had a WAR above 1.00 for the season. They were Carlos Santana, David Ross and Ramon Castro. Those three provided value in their games played. There were nine that had a WAR in negative values. That means they not only didn't add any win values, they lost win values. The worst two backup catchers in value last year were Kevin Cash and Adam Moore, both of whom cost their teams more than a win in value.

The conclusion here is that backup catchers suck as a group. Granted, there aren't very many good starting catchers either. But when you employ the current basket of backup catchers, there is no place to hide them in the line up and in most cases, you are giving up any chance at getting any offense from the position. The Fan isn't sure why this is. Does the entire minor league system have that few quality catchers? Do these backup catchers that play year after year simply have good reputations and are liked by their managers, pitching coaches, etc.? The Fan doesn't know the answer. But the bottom line remains. Those who are backing up a position that require the tools of ignorance have very few tools in their tool bags at all.

Game Picks - Sunday: April 10, 2011

Saturday was a breakthrough day. Not only was the week saved, but for once, it actually seemed like this picker knew what he was doing. Yesterday's picks predicted a great ballgame by Zach Britton over Texas and then a bad game by Arrieta in the double-header's finale. That's exactly what happened. A great game by Gio Gonzalez was exactly what happened.  That the Yankees would get to Buchholz happened. That the Dodgers would win the suspended game and that Kuroda would throw a gem in the regular game was exactly what happened. The prediction was the Mets would win behind Capuano and they did. The prediction was that Narveson would be good, he was great. It was a terrific day of picking.

There were a few dumb things. The Pirates blew a save situation or Morton would have gotten the win as predicted. The Fan totally missed the White Sox/Bay Rays game. How does that happen? And once again, the Game of the Day was wrong. That's five straight bad picks for the game the Fan predicts to be a lock. And apologies have to be sent to the Fan's Cardinal blogging buddies as that was a brutal loss as Franklin blew yet another save. But that made the Fan's pick right.

Since the week ended so well, let's see if Sunday can start off the new week with a bang:

• The Tigers over the Royals: The Tigers have been terribly disappointing this season. They have to start winning games that Verlander doesn't pitch. Thinking today that Porcello should out-pitch Hochevar.
• The Mets over the Nationals: The Mets continue to be rewarded for gutsy pitching signings as Chris Young wins his second game over Jason Marquis.
• The Rockies over the Pirates: James McDonald starts for the Pirates in his second start coming off a strained oblique. But he isn't stretched out yet, putting more pressure on a stretched Pirate bullpen. The Rockies win behind Chacin.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Simply like Derek Lowe's chances over Cole Hamels with the Braves being home.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Jeremy Guthrie missed a start due to pneumonia and could still be weak. Holland should silence the Orioles' bats.
• The Marlins over the Astros: Happ has gone back to being Happless after pitching well last year. Anibal Sanchez wins the game.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Casey Coleman isn't a bad replacement for the injured Randy Wells, but Gallardo should out-pitch him and get a hit along the way himself.
• The Twins over the Athletics: Brandon McCarthy shouldn't be able to stop the Twins' offense and Home Run Baker doesn't have too many homer hitters in Oakland's dugout to worry about.
• The Bay Rays over the White Sox: The Fan has always liked Jeff Niemann and keeps waiting for him to break out. Perhaps it will be this game with a win over Gavin Floyd.
• The Angels over the Blue Jays: Weaver should have no trouble with beating Jo-Jo Reyes, who was terrible in his first start.
• The Padres over the Dodgers: Never been a big Fan of John Ely, who gets the start for the Dodgers. Harang should win.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: The Cardinals have serious bullpen issues, especially at the back end. So Kyle Lohse really needs a good game to beat Barry Zito. The Cards have to hit sooner or later.
• The Mariners over the Indians: The heart is in the way on this pick as this Fan is really rooting for this Bedard comeback. He beats Tomlin, who was good his first time out. Beware of this pick.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: Sabathia was brilliant last time out. Beckett, not so much. Are the Red Sox really 1-7?

And the Game of the Day:

• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Leake pitched well his last time out. Saunders is a guy who will never get a pick in this space. Ever.

Yesterday: 12-4! Yay!
Last Week: 45-41  Whew!
Month: 63-54
Season: 63-54
Games of the Day: 3-7  Oh come on now!

Losing Manny is Our Loss

For those of us that thought the Bay Rays' signing of Manny Ramirez was brilliant, we're looking pretty stupid today, no? The announcement was shocking and stark and for many, it was a day of victory. There will be no moralizing here. There are enough writers who probably cheat on their taxes that will salivate over this story and lace their articles with sarcasm concerning the slugger's "slinking" from the game. No, there are no judgments here. For one, what will Manny care with what one more writer says? He's got eighteen seasons in of doing what he loved to do. He has two World Series rings, twenty-nine post season homers and he made well over $200 million for his career. What will he care? So go ahead, moralist writers. Knock yourselves out. Have fun. You've been waiting for this moment. For those of us who love to follow baseball and to watch it, this day is a huge loss.

Why? Because for better or worse--and we usually got equal doses of both--Manny Ramirez was the most entertaining player of our era. He was a lightning bolt of either hate or love, antipathy or adoration. His swing was the most vicious we've ever witnessed. His smarts as a batter unquestioned. And this Fan doesn't care what he put into his body. There is nothing he could ingest that would make him that talented. Yeah, it could make him stronger and it could make him recover from ailments, but it couldn't help him hit a hurtling fastball or a wicked curve. There was art to his at bats and those are now gone forever.

He was our baseball clown. His adventures in the outfield only compounded the thrill of any game in which he participated. His dreads were an added dimension unlike any other player in the game. For most of his career, you didn't want to be gone to the bathroom, concession stand or kitchen when Manny was coming to the plate. His were the most anticipated at bats of the day. His presence in the Red Sox line up made David Ortiz Big Papi. Both now are clouded with the same PED questions. But while it lasted, those two sluggers back to back made all those Yankee-Red Sox match ups more fun than at any time in the rivalry's history. He brought the Indians to the World Series twice. Where have those Indians been since?

He was a unique talent and a magician with the bat we won't soon see again. He has Hall of Fame numbers, but will never see the inside of the Hall. No, the writers who have the votes in this day and age are too busy being our Puritans. Their white-washed sepulchers will continue to hide their inner selves. Manny Ramirez was no saint and he will never be pictured in this space as such. He was a man-child prone to tantrums and emotional roller-coasters. He never stayed happy for long and his play suffered when he wanted more money. Those facts are all well documented.

But this Fan never worshiped Manny Ramirez. It was simply a blast to see what the heck he would do on any given day. There are no judgments here. There is only a bit of grief that the story is over. The most entertaining player of our era is gone. We are the ones who lose here. But it sure was fun while it lasted.

Game Picks - Saturday: April 9, 2010

For Pete's sake! How can you correctly pick the Red Sox first win, the Bay Rays first win, the Braves over the Phillies and Cliff Lee, and the Blue Jays over the Athletics and still only end up a game over .500 for the day? It has been an incredibly difficult assignment to have any kind of success picking games thus far this season. Take the Game of the Day feature for example. That's supposed to be the slam dunk pick. That's the pick that should be the easiest to get right based on match ups and other factors. Yet, that feature is on a four day losing streak. This picker has become the Houston Astros of picking. Ugh! To top it off, one game was suspended in the ninth inning and the other was rained out.

So let's try this again, shall we? The Fan needs a huge day just to avoid finishing in the red for this week. For better or worse, here are Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Red Sox: Buchholz doesn't have a good history versus the Yankees. Nova is pitching with a lot of confidence. The bullpens will get lots of play in this game. Yankees.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Life is just Beachy for the Braves today as they face Roy Oswalt. Beachy has a good history against the Phillies and started the year very well. 
• The Royals over the Tigers: Funny how these picks are shaping up. First, this picker thinks what should happen and then has to also wonder what will happen. The Royals start Chen who should throw beach balls to the eyes of the Tigers. (eyes of the Tigers? heh). But the Tigers start Phil Coke. hmm.. Royals.
• The Orioles split with the Tigers: The Orioles under Britton win the first game and the Rangers win the second game with Harrison over Arrieta, who should get smacked around by the Rangers. The second game will probably end about one o'clock in the morning.
• The Pirates over the Rockies: Greg Reynolds is making his first major league start since 2008. That was three years ago! The Pirates start Morton, who could succeed after both teams played for six hours last night.
• The Astros over the Marlins: How do you pick this game!? The Marlins will probably not have Hanley Ramirez in the line up and both Vazquez and Norris looked like batting practice pitchers their first outings. Good luck.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This Fan likes Narveson's chances over Garza at home. Braun and Fielder should provide homers off of the homer-prone Garza.
• The Athletics over the Twins: Gio Gonzalez is great. Blackburn has had a good spring. The A's are due for a win.
• The Mets over the Nationals: The Fan lauded the Mets' signing of Capuano, so has to support him in his first start of the year. The Nationals counter with Gorzelanny, who can be pretty good at times. Man, this is tough.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs are playing pretty good ball and Drew is back. But Arroyo won last time out despite being weak from mono. Got to go with someone that determined.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: The two teams will first finish their suspended game which could change yesterday's results. Then the main event takes place with Kuroda out-pitching Moseley.
• The Indians over the Mariners: The Indians won't have another ten run inning, but they should score enough off Fister (one of the more unfortunate names in baseball) to allow Masterson to drive the Mariners into ground ball heaven.
• The Giants over the Cardinals: A fantastic pitching match up with Cain versus Jaime Garcia. Garcia pitched a shutout last time out. But the Cardinals aren't hitting. So the Giants should eke out a win.

And the Game of the Day (ugh! Come on feature! Snap out of it!)

• The Blue Jays over the Angels: The Angels put Kazmir on the disabled list with a sore back (suuuure). Matt Palmer was just as bad in his earlier incarnations in the majors. Cecil with the win.

Yesterday: 7-6 pending the outcome of the Dodger/Padres game

Week: 33-37  [[hanging head]]

Month: 51-50

Season: 51-50

Games of the Day: 3-6

A Real Early Look at Fielding in MLB

A few days ago, there was a post in this space on how it appeared (at least early on) that offense had returned from a down year in 2010. One of the observations on how the error rate was up provoked a comment (thank you!) about fielding this year and how it appeared to be suffering around the league. Being of the curious sort anyway, a look was made to see how accurate that statement was. Again, it's early, but so far, it seems that fielding around baseball is pretty much the same as last year.

Last year, the accumulated MLB league average for fielding percentage was .983. So far this year, the league average is .983 (numbers culled from baseball-reference.com). So nothing has changed there. Last year, the league average for defensive efficiency was .691. This year, the league average for fielding efficiency is .693. That shows a small increase in fielding efficiency in 2011's smaller sample size than what occurred a year ago. Fangraphs doesn't have their 2011 UZR or RngR posted yet, so we'll have to go with that.

A couple of interesting notes while looking at the early stats:

• The Orioles rate on the top of the list so far this year in defensive efficiency after finishing slightly below league average last year.
• The Yankees and Athletics came in second and third (respectively) in defensive efficiency last year. This year, the Yankees are in the middle of the pack and the Athletics are below average.
• The Cardinals are pretty much where they were last year and perhaps a little better. That's a surprise.
• The Mets are at the bottom of the list in fielding efficiency. The Astros are next to last.
• Neither Chicago team is fielding very well as they rank 27th and 28th in the league in defensive efficiency.
• You can't blame Boston's slow start to its defense. They are first in fielding percentage and sixth in efficiency.
• The Giants' fielding efficiency was .707 last year. It's down to .669 this year.

Again, it's very early, but it may seem that the defense isn't as good around baseball as it was last year. But the numbers say otherwise.

The Swisher Slide: A Non-Controversy and Rebuttal

An unfortunate accident happened during the game between the Twins and the Yankees. The Twins spent a lot of money to bring over a Japanese player named, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and yesterday, that player broke his leg. The injury was the result of Nick Swisher sliding into second base to try to break up a double play. This writer was watching the game on the MLB Network when the incident occurred and it was just like a thousand other plays the Fan has seen in over fifty years of watching baseball. The only thing odd about the play is that most infielders jump to avoid the runner. Nishioka just stood there and got hit hard in the legs. The decision and technique would cost him most of his first season.

Dave Gershman, a writer over at Beyond the Box Score much admired here, called the slide by Swisher "dirty." Based on what? If the play was dirty, wouldn't the Twins' players have been upset? Wouldn't Nishioki have been upset? Wouldn't his manager have been upset? According to this article in the New York Times, Nishioki said himself that he should have gotten out of the way. Twins' manager, Ron Gardenhire, said it was a clean play. And if players and managers who have played the game their whole lives had nothing bad to say about the play, why would Gershman?

Mr. Gershman goes on to wonder why fans, media and the like called the play clean. Because it was. It wasn't any different than a thousand other slides into second base to try to break up a double play. Swisher wasn't Ty Cobb with his spikes flying into the player. It was Swisher's job to try to disrupt the relay throw just like it is for every other base runner in that same situation.

Gershman then goes on to wonder if the reaction would have been different if the person who broke his leg was Jeter. What does that mean? First, is he implying that since it was a Japanese player, there was no reaction? Or is the writer implying that the Yankees get special treatment by the press and by fans? If either of those thoughts were on the great writer's mind, they are baseless.

Let's take this back to last year on a similar play where the base runner got hurt instead of the fielder. Justin Morneau was barreling into second trying to claim the same bag Swisher was. The fielder jumped, as most fielders do and in the process, his knee hit Morneau in the head and gave Morneau a concussion that knocked the Twins' first baseman out of the rest of the season. Since Morneau got hurt, then using Mr. Gershman's reasoning, it must have been a dirty play by the fielder.

Base runners trying to take out the middle infielder or catcher (on a bang, bang play at the plate) are part of the game. It is expected of the base runners to try to disrupt the fielder to save an out and prolong the inning. It's been that way for over a hundred years. We don't need rule changes and we don't need to call these plays dirty when they aren't. These plays happen all the time and in most cases, both the runner and the fielder walk away without incident. Unfortunately, this time one of the players didn't. Mr. Gershman wondered whether Swisher was trying to hurt Nishioka. Not a chance. That never entered his mind. All that was on his mind was disrupting the play so that the runner behind him would be safe. That is baseball.

Game Picks - Friday: April 8, 2011

The wacky world of this early baseball season continues to confound the daily game picks. Yesterday, with Lester and Price pitching, both the Red Sox and Bay Rays figured to end their losing streaks. They both lost. Josh Johnson was again brilliant as predicted, but the Marlins kicked the ball around to the tune of three unearned runs and wasted his effort. Paul Maholm fell apart after a first great start and the Pirates lost. Well, at least the Astros DID break their losing streak.

There are only two days left in this week and the picks have to be good to at least break even this week!

• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Several factors point to a Red Sox win. First, they are finally home with their opener this afternoon. Two, they usually hit Phil Hughes pretty well and lastly, they are simply due for a win. Lackey goes for the Red Sox.
• The Tigers over the Royals: The Tigers also have their home opener today. Scherzer over Davies. Scherzer will have to be on his game though as the Tigers' bullpen is a mess.
• The Twins over the Athletics: The Twins open at home with Carl Pavano. The Athletics are struggling offensively and won't give Anderson enough runs to work with.
• The Mets over the Nationals: Zimmerman has been quiet so far, which doesn't help Zimmermann, who pitched well his first time out but still got the loss. R. A. Dickey still continues to confound oppositions.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: Both teams have struggled out of the gate. Going with Westbrook over Sanchez, but not overly filled with confidence as the Giants are home.
• The Rockies over the Pirates: Ohlendorf pitched pretty well his first start, but he can't seem to get wins. De La Rosa looks fabulous early this season.
• The Astros over the Marlins: The Marlins have to be the most unpredictable team on the planet. Nolasco starts in Houston against Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy's always been the Fan's man.
• The Orioles over the Rangers: The Rangers are due for a loss. Colby Lewis has a career ERA against the Orioles of over 6.00. Britton is a young lefty that should shut down the Rangers' attack.
• The Braves over the Phillies: Great pitching match up of Cliff Lee versus Tim Hudson. Going with Hudson at home.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Zambrano wasn't exactly sharp his first time out. But neither was Wolf. Going with Zambrano and the Cubs.
• The Rays over the White Sox: The Fan doesn't have any choice but to keep picking the Bay Rays until they win. Shields looks much better this year. He wins over Danks in Chicago.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Have to go with Wood over Kennedy. Though the Red have to lose some time this year.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: The pitching match up seems even with Lilly versus Richard. Going with the Dodgers' better offense in San Diego.
• The Blue Jays over the Angels: Riding the Drabek wave and Jose Bautista should be back in the line up tonight. Santana goes for the Angels at home.

And the Game of the Day

• The Mariners over the Indians: The Indians had to travel yesterday across the country for the game. Carrasco offers no inspiration and Vargas is a good pitcher for the Mariners.

Yesterday: 4-5
Week: 26-31
Month: 44-44
Season: 44-44
Games of the Day: 3-5

One Troubling Statistic for the Orioles

After yesterday's post about not getting all excited about early results for teams and batters, this post is going to seem a bit contradictory. So let's just call this a trend to watch for and not something to get excited about. Fair? Okay. One statistic that is troubling for the fast start of the Baltimore Orioles is the team's total lack of patience at the plate. The team is off to a fast start in large part because of their pitching and run prevention. As a team, they are only batting .217. But you don't worry about that because the team will hit. Heck, the Red Sox are batting .190 as a team. You can't get all hysterical over that. But the Orioles walk rate is troubling to say the least.

As a team, the Orioles have only walked eight times in 170 plate appearances. That works out to a 4.7 percent walk rate overall. That's like having Bengie Molina playing every position. The figure is nearly half of the 8.4 percent league average. They have the fewest walks in the majors so far. The league average was 8.5 last year. A team's batting is still a small sample size at the moment and there are all kinds of factors involved in the results. But walks are a more controllable issue and the low walk total, even in such a small sample size, shows an approach trend that doesn't favor the Orioles' long term success.

What makes it even more troubling is that the Orioles have had this problem for a while. Last year, only the Astros walked fewer times than the Orioles (the Astros are still weak in the area and have one more team walk than the Orioles). And while the Orioles have some new players in the line up this year with Mark Reynolds, J. J. Hardy and Vladimir Guerrero, nothing has really changed from a year ago.

If anything, those players should have helped the situation, but that's not how it's working so far. Mark Reynolds, who is well known for his strikeouts, also walks a lot. He hasn't taken a single walk yet this year. Vladimir Guerrero at times in his career looked like a more patient hitter, but those numbers are deceiving because he was walked intentionally so much in his younger career. Guerrero only walked 35 times last year. He hasn't taken a walk yet this year either. J. J. Hardy has a walk rate over 12 percent currently, so you can't blame him.

The Orioles have only used ten different batters so far this year. Of those ten, five of them have yet to take a walk: Felix Pie, Reynolds, Adam Jones, Vlad and Luke Scott. Pie has never been known for his patience and has a .305 lifetime on base percentage. Adam Jones walked only 23 times last year in 621 plate appearances. So history isn't on the side of him improving in that area. Luke Scott usually walks about ten percent of the time but he has been hurt and has only been to the plate seven times.

Much has been made about the Orioles having the kind of hitting that can compete in the American League East this season. But that assessment has been mistaken. The Bay Rays, Yankees and Red Sox will all walk somewhere in the area of nine percent of the time. The Orioles will fall far short of that by not only their current trend but by the history of their players.

The bottom line here, at least for this observer is that the Orioles might pitch like the big boys, perhaps even hit with the big boys, but if they can't walk like the big boys, they won't stay with the big boys.

Game Picks - Thursday: April 7, 2011

What does this feature have in common with the Bay Rays and Red Sox? All three started 0-5. Then it was 1-6. By the time the dust had settled, the day finished at 6-8 (Yanks were rained out). Geez Louise, this has been tough sledding early on. Things are especially difficult when winning streaks and losing streaks are taking place and one has to pick when those events will end. After all, even the best teams will lose thirty percent of the time and the worst teams will win the same percentage.

Surprisingly for a Thursday, there are ten games on the schedule. Most of them are day games, so we should know soon enough whether these picks can get on track and pull this week out. Here's a look at today's picks:

• The Red Sox over the Indians: Jon Lester ends the misery ride of the Red Sox and out pitches Carmona. This game starts at 12:05 ET! And it's not even Patriots Day.
• The Astros over the Reds: Myers should give up less runs than Sam LeCure, who hasn't been built up to start and might pitch only three or four innings.
• The Blue Jays over the Athletics: The Blue Jays have kept winning despite Bautista taking care of personal business and now their shortstop got hit in the head. But Romero will still beat Cahill.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Burnett starts to make believers while Liriano is still trying to get untracked and get out of Gardenhire's inexplicable doghouse.
• The Pirates over the Rockies: Maholm was very good his first time out, The Rockies have to play on the road for the first time and counter with Rogers making his starting debut. None of that seems to add up to a win for the Rockies.
• The Bay Rays over the White Sox: David Price lifts the Bay Rays on his shoulders and shuts down the Dunn-less White Sox. The Bay Rays win their first game.
• The Orioles over the Tigers: The Orioles should jump all over Brad Penny giving them enough runs for whatever Tillman does or how many homers Cabrera hits.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Marlins over the Nationals: Josh Johnson versus John Lannan is a mismatch. Johnson has never lost to the Nationals in seven career decisions against them.

Yesterday: 6-8
Week: 22-26
Month: 40-39
Season: 40-39
Games of the Day: 3-4

Emotional Reactions to First Week in the Age of Social Media

Whether teams realize it or not, team blogs and Facebook groups and Twitter fans need to become a part of every team's marketing plan. The most dynamic and popular of the team sites should be given team credentials. This is a great opportunity for teams to build fan interest that is of itself a dollars and cents issue. But the same social media that has exploded around us also makes things difficult for teams when they don't start well. It used to be that every city had two or three newspaper outlets and a few television stations to worry about. Those outlets couldn't produce opinion until the following day after a game or at best, a short spot on the eleven o'clock news. Now there are thousands of bloggers and tweeters that can drive things into a frenzy in a matter of moments. Every play is scrutinized, every manager decision second-guessed and every writer is looking for angle and another member of the audience. And then it all gets scrutinized on the MLB Network twenty-four hours a day.

That can make it crushing when teams like the Red Sox, the Cardinals, the Bay Rays and other teams that were expected to do well stumble out of the gate. Tony LaRussa blew up at his post game news conference on Wednesday night. There is already a major squawk about New York Yankees' reliever, Rafael Soriano, not being available to answer questions after he blew the Yankees win on Tuesday. Madden already feels the need to protect Manny Ramirez.

While scanning Twitter on Wednesday night, even Jon Heyman, supposedly a respected journalist for Sports Illustrated, gets caught up in the immediacy of social media and says things like the Red Sox pre-season hype went to their heads. The age we live in has brought about such immediacy that every game of a 162 game season becomes a do or die event.

How can people already be writing off the Boston Red Sox? Again, this age we live in allows baseball people the ability to look stuff up immediately such as that no team that has started 0-5 has ever made the playoffs. After five games, is that really a reality just because it's never happened before? It's only five games. Sure, a part of our human nature is to have some glee when a team goes out and tries to buy a pennant only to start on their caboose, but come on! The Red Sox weren't supposed to beat the Yankees in 2004 when they were down three games to zip either. That's why you play the games. It isn't what happens after five games, it's what happens after 162.

After picking up a lot of friends who follow the St. Louis Cardinals, it's wryly amusing to see how flustered they are by the lack of Cardinal offense. Albert Pujols has a ten year history to look at, not just six games. Is he going to be batting under .100 a week from now, never mind a month or two from now? It's just a few games! Of course, Tony LaRussa's reaction was a little over the top. He's got to know the age we live in. Heck, he's on Twitter himself. But the man has a point. How can people be questioning the offensive make up of his team after just six games?

The Giants were in fourth place last year on July 15th. They won the whole kitten caboodle. So why then is there such panic with a 2-4 start? They have some of the best pitching in baseball. Six games tell us nothing, especially in a division where nobody is going to run away and hide.

All of this emotional roller-coasting is one reason why this space has been avoiding stories on players having good starts or bad starts. Those stories would sound blindingly stupid by August when the landscape will be completely different. As a passionate fan, it would be easy to get all excited or worried about players based on their results out of the gate. But history has to temper the immediate reactions. Sure, maybe we can start to look at trends. Sure, we can begin to wonder if the Rangers and Reds are going to be the best teams in their respective leagues. But both teams can just as easily lose five games in a row next week. If they start like the Tigers did in 1984, well then that's pretty interesting. But even those Tigers stumbled in the second half and limped into the playoffs. They won a hundred plus games, but they didn't set any records or anything.

The rational thing to do is to keep reminding yourself that it's still early. Baseball has entertainment value over the course of a long season and at most, results at this time of year should be looked on with interest and amusement. But to make bold statements or to get hopes up too high or down too low is premature. And teams need to simply smile when faced with stupid questions based on such small sample sizes. Let's just watch and see what happens, shall we?

Game Picks - Wednesday: April 6, 2011

Several good things happened with yesterday's picks. Gallardo was brilliant for the Brewers. The Mets beat the Phillies as predicted here. The Padres got the win over the Giants. But just as many things went wrong. Soriano blew a four run lead and ruined a brilliant Sabathia start to ruin the Yankees. The Red Sox lost again. The Royals keep winning. The Bay Rays keep losing. Times are confusing and a .500 record with the picks is the result.

Let's see if Wednesday's games can break open the logjam:

• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Haran pitched really well his first time out but so did Hellickson. Going with the Bay Rays at home as they are due for a win.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: It's always difficult to pick against Mr. Carpenter, especially when opposed by Mr. Correia.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: King Felix over the king of Twitter, C. J. Wilson.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Going to ride this Royals' wave for a little while. Francis was very good his first outing and should be better than Buehrle.
• The Cubs over the Diamondbacks: Dempster started poorly last time, but he should bounce back and beat Galarraga.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Yeah, this pick was wrong yesterday, but Billingsley should be better than Hammel.
• The Giants over the Padres: Love what we're seeing from the Padres, but they face Lincecum today and offer only Stauffer.
• The Red Sox over the Indians: Isn't it ironic that Matsuzaka is going to get the Red Sox first win? Talbot starts for the Indians, hence this pick.
• The Tigers over the Orioles: Verlander will strike out ten batters while putting the Orioles' winning streak to pasture. Bergesen goes for the Orioles.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Pavano always pitches tough against the Yankees, but they got lucky last night and the Yankees somehow get a win with Garcia starting.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Blanton had a very good spring. Pelfrey got whacked around in his first start. More of the same today.
• The Blue Jays over the Athletics: The Blue Jays have something going on up there in Toronto. The fans are excited and it's making a difference. Litsch versus Braden.
• The Reds over the Astros: This picker is going to be completely wrong about the NL Central. The Reds look unbeatable. Volquez over Figueroa.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Volstad comes up big and the Marlins get enough runs to beat Livan.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Braves over the Brewers: Minor goes for the Braves. The Brewers haven't even announced their starting pitcher yet. That can't be good.

Yesterday: 7-7
Week: 16-18
Month: 34-31
Season: 34-31
Games of the Day: 3-3

The Seven Worst Starting Pitchers Ever

Several teams including the Red Sox and Tigers have really struggled out of the gate with their starting pitching. And since it's way too early to make anything of that fact, it did get this writer thinking about starting pitching and how bad it can get. This led to a Play Index search on www.baseball-reference.com and the following criteria was used:

• More than 200 career starts
• An ERA+ of 90 or less
• An ERA above 4.90

Once that list was obtained, the search came up with seven starting pitchers. The Fan then separated those seven by WAR to get a ranking of those seven. Now to be sure, the Fan isn't sure if this is the proper criteria for making this list. For one, all seven of the pitchers found pitched from 1993 on. Does that mean that our current era has produced some of the worst starting pitchers of all time? Hmm... The Fan doesn't know. If the criteria is only 200 or more career starts and an ERA over 5.00, then we still get all modern pitchers (six of them). If we just search for 200 or more career starts and an ERA+ of less than or equal to 85, then we only get four pitchers and we finally get a guy from before our present times. We'll talk about him later.

Why 200 starts? Well, anyone can be bad enough for a short enough period of time to qualify for such a list. But 200 starts means that a guy was really bad, but managed to be really bad for a long period of time. You figure 200 starts is about seven full seasons of pitching, right? But feel free to do your own search and come up with your own list. We can compare numbers and come to a conclusion together. That would be kind of fun, wouldn't it?

Anyway, here are the Flagrant Fan's seven worst pitchers ever.

7. Sidney Ponson.  Ponson started 278 games in 298 total appearances over his twelve year career that ended in 2009. He pitched for the Orioles, Yankees, Royals, Twins, Giants, Cardinals and Rangers. His final record was 91-113 with a career 5.03 ERA and a career ERA+ of 90. He had two good years in 2002 and 2003 which skew his statistics some and gave him the highest career WAR on our list (9.3). But after 2003, he was brutal. After 2003, he never had a WHIP lower than 1.60. he gave up 10.1 hits per nine innings for his career, 3.1 walks, 1.1 homers per nine innings and had a career 1.69 strikeout to walk ratio. During his entire career, all you ever heard was that Ponson had a great arm. Despite some early success, that great arm never led to good starting pitching.

6. Jason Johnson. Johnson pitched eleven years starting in 1997 and he was done by 2008. He pitched for the Orioles, Devil Rays, Tigers, Pirates, Red Sox, Dodgers, Reds and Indians. Yeah, these guys moved around a lot. Johnson made 221 career starts out of his 255 career appearances. He had a career record of 56-100 with an ERA of 4.99 and an ERA+ of 89. Those numbers are despite two slightly above league average seasons for the Orioles. His career WHIP was 1.488, he gave up 1.2 homers per nine innings and over ten hits per nine. He had a 1.63 strikeout to walk ratio. Despite several seasons with more than 30 starts, he never won more than ten games in a season.  He did somehow manage to build a career WAR of 4.9 mostly because of those two decent seasons.

5. Jose Lima. You knew this was coming, didn't you? Lima had a 21 win season and a 16 win season, but he was so bad in just about every other season that his career numbers were off the charts. Lima made 238 starts out of a career 348 appearances covering parts of 13 seasons. He pitched for the Astros, Tigers, Royals, Mets and Dodgers. His career home runs per nine innings was a whopping 1.5 and he gave up over ten hits per nine innings. His career ERA was 5.26 and his career ERA+ was 85. When Lima-time was good, it was a lot of fun. When it was bad, it was really, really bad.

4. Glendon Rusch. Rusch finished with the same career WAR of 3.2 as Lima, so you can probably call that a tie. Rusch pitched for the Royals, Cubs, Mets, Rockies, Brewers and Padres. He had two pretty good seasons, one with the Mets and another with the Cubs. But the rest were pretty bad. He started 220 games in his 342 appearances and finished with a career record of 67-99 with a 5.04 ERA and an ERA+ of 88. Like Lima, Rusch gave up a lot of homers and a lot of hits with his career WHIP of 1.484. He had pretty good control and not a bad strikeout rate, but they never added up to success. Six of his twelve season resulted in a negative WAR for the season.

3. Adam Eaton. You probably figured he was coming too. Eaton was a first round draft pick for the Phillies at one time and he pitched during ten seasons for the Padres, Rangers, Phillies, Orioles and Rockies. 201 of his 209 lifetime appearances were starts and he finished with a 4.94 ERA and an 84 ERA+.  The ERA was no doubt helped by years in San Diego in a pitchers' park. Eaton walked a lot of guys, gave up a lot of hits and homers. He did manage to somehow finish with a winning record of 71-68. But his career WAR tells the story with a lump sum of 1.5 spread over ten years. And for that, he made over $26 million in his career. Nice.

2. Jimmy Haynes. Jimmy Wayne Haynes pitched ten year in the big leagues for the Athletics, the Reds, the Orioles and the Brewers from 1995 to 2004. Yes, the Orioles appear a lot on this list. Haynes had a run of 30+ starts for five straight seasons though he was never any good in any of them. He went 63-89 in 203 starts and 227 appearances. His career ERA was a whopping 5.37 and his career ERA+ was 83. Haynes' career WHIP pretty much says it all: 1.632. Wow. And that factors in that he had two years at league average and once won 15 games for the Reds. He finished with a 1.1 accumulated WAR to show for his ten seasons. Five of his seasons were in the red when it came to WAR.

1. Jason Bere.  Bere comes in first place in our list of worst starting pitchers ever. Bere actually started with a bang for the White Sox in 1993 and 1994. In 1993, he went 12-5 in 24 starts and came in third in Rookie of the Year voting. The following year, he made 24 more starts and went 12-2!  Both years, he finished with an ERA+ of over 120. So how then do you get from there to a career ERA+ of 86? It wasn't easy. Right after his 12-2 season, he went 8-15 with an ERA of 7.19. He missed most of the year after that with health problems and never really recovered. His true problem was control  He walked over five batters per nine innings for his career. It turned into a very strange career. He had a winning record of 71-65 and yet his career ERA was 5.14. His career WHIP was over 1.5. And after an eleven year career, Bere had the grand total of 0.3 accumulated WAR. That's not much to show for 201 career starts and 207 total appearances.

Honorable mention: Our one old-timer on the list: Herm Wehmeier. He pitched from 1945 to 1958 and started 240 games out of his 361 appearances. He finished his career with an 84 ERA+ and a record of 92-108. He walked more batters in his career than he struck out and led the league in walks three out of four seasons. Wehmeier didn't match all the criteria on our list, but he was one heck of a not-very-good pitcher.

Offense is Back in 2011

We heard a lot about last year being the "Year of the Pitcher" in Major League Baseball. The numbers bear out that 2010 was a very good year for pitching. The majors earned run average of 4.04 was the lowest number of earned runs per game since 1992. The home run per nine inning rate was its lowest since 1993. After a hundred and four games are in the books for 2011, several of the key numbers have bounced back to near 2009 levels.

The earned run average in 2011 is back up to 4.23 or more in line with 2009's 4.28. Last year was the first time in the history of the game (why didn't we hear more about this?) that strikeouts per game rose to over seven. Strikeout rates have risen dramatically over the years. In 1988, the strikeout rate was 5.56. It has risen gradually from there to its peak in 2010 at 7.06. That's a 27 percent increase over time. This year, the strikeout rate has shrunk back below seven and sits at 6.96.

As most people know, homer rates have risen dramatically since 1993. The homer rate was never over one per game until 1987 when it peaked at 1.06. The rate shrunk quite a bit in the few years after 1987 and then blew up in 1994. The rate has been over one ever since. That is until 2010 when the rate shrunk under one for the first time since 1993. This year, it's back to 1.14 and if the trend continued, would be the highest since the year 2000.

Surprisingly (or not since it's being stressed so much), the walk rate is down to its lowest level since 2005. And who knows if this is a factor of it being early in the season or what, but the Intentional Walk rate is down to its lowest level since the stat has been counted in 1955 and it's not even close. Most years, the rate sits anywhere from .25 to .29 per nine innings. The current figure is .17.

What might not be helping the pitching is defense. The current error rate in the majors is the highest rate since 1989.

So yes, the numbers did show that pitching had its best showing in 2010 than it has for a very long time. But so far this year, the offense is back in charge and other than walk rates, the batters are back in business in 2011. It's still very early, but that's how the trends look so far.

Game Picks - Tuesday: April 5, 2011

So, okay. The Brewers are still winless. The Orioles still haven't lost a game and the Cardinals are kind of flat at the moment. Is it any wonder that this week isn't going so well for a game picker? Those facts make the 3-3 record for the day somewhat reasonable. Are the Pirates and Orioles this good? The Fan remembers asking the same question about the Nationals last year when they got off to a great start. Time will tell. It's refreshing when perennially bad teams do well. It's great for the game. It's just not great for picking games.

But we carry on because the Fan is stubbornly persistent. Here's a look at Tuesday's games which involve a fourteen games and twenty-eight of the 30 teams.(that's weird):

• The Cubs over the Diamondbacks: Kind of a scary match up here between Enright and Cashner. Going with the hometown Cubs with no confidence whatsoever.
• The Padres over the Giants: The Padres are always a confusing pick. But the Fan predicted a big bounce back year for Harang and he gets the start, so the Fan is backed into a corner to pick him to win. Bumgarner goes for the Giants.
• The Rays over the Angels: The Angels just might be the worst team in the AL West. Weaver is great, but that doesn't guarantee a win. Going with Niemann and the Bay Rays.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Sabathia over Duensing. Enough said.
• The Mets over the Phillies: This is my upset special for the day. Chris Young was a wise pick up and he'll get the W for the Mets over Hamels, the forgotten ace.
• The Athletics over the Blue Jays: This pick isn't so much a wealth of confidence in Brandon McCarthy as it is a total lack of confidence in Jo-Jo Reyes.
• The Reds over the Astros: Leake has struggled since the middle of last year. But the Reds' offense has been killer. MLB.com lists Happ as Houston's starter, but the Fan thought he was hurt. We'll just have to see.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Anibal Sanchez has become a very good pitcher. Marquis is too much of a risk to pick here.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: The Rangers aren't going to win 162 games. Plus, the Fan always roots for rookie debuts. Michael Pineda's start might be the most anticipated one since Strasberg. Plus, the Rangers are starting Alexi Ogando. Hmm...
• The Brewers over the Braves: In the reverse logic of the Rangers, the Brewers aren't going to lose 162 games. Gallardo over Lowe.
• The White Sox over the Royals: Gavin Floyd over Luke Hochevar.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: John McDonald versus Kyle McClellan. Loved the way McClellan threw all spring. Cards have to hit some day.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Kershaw looks like the best pitcher in the NL right now. Chacin won't be able to match the zeros. 

And the Game of the Day!

• The Red Sox over the Indians: No Boston fans, the team isn't going to hell in a handbasket. Beckett will still have his bad inning but the Red Sox will win, especially with Tomlin pitching for the Indians.

Yesterday: 3-3

Week: 9-11

Month: 27-24

Season: 27-24

Games of the Day: 3-2

Some Observations- ESPN and Sunday Night Baseball

Sunday night's contest between the Dodgers and the Giants was hugely entertaining. Barry Zito started for the Giants and Hiroki Kuroda started for the Dodgers. Zito looked downright batting practice poor in the beginning and the Dodgers built a quick 3-0 lead. He wasn't helped by a miscue in right by poor Aubrey Huff (more on him later).  But the Giants bounced back to tie the game as Zito got tougher to hit and Burrell and Sandoval hit bombs. All of this was ably called by the trio of announcers calling the game. The Fan would rate Orel Hershiser as very good. Bobby Valentine was pretty good and this Fan doesn't enjoy Dan Shulman at all.

Let's start with Shulman. His conversational voice is pleasant enough, if lacking a little in charm. But when a big play happens and his voice goes louder, he takes on this cartoonish voice that does not sound natural. It's not like a natural voice that gets louder. It's a lounder voice that gets more Dudley Dooright-like. The Fan definitely missed Jon Miller. Miller's voice is so entertaining and his excitement level was so natural, that Shulman paled in comparison.

It was awkward when Shulman and ESPN had to show Miller, who was working the game for his local station, and pay him homage. Shulman was properly respectful to Miller as his predecessor and said a lot of nice things, but it did seem like an awkward moment.

Dan Shulman does do a nice job of conversationally engaging his analysts by asking good questions. He often asked questions that the Fan wanted to ask and that was very good. But Jon Miller was the best. When the Fan thinks back of all the major network play-by-play guys over the years, Miller is right on top.

Hershiser began doing the games for ESPN last year and has seemed to come into his own as an analyst. Last year, he seemed to be like a kid baiting Joe Morgan and fighting for airspace. He's much more relaxed now and at times his honesty is brutal and refreshing. He has kind of a smarmy delivery though which can get annoying at times. This was never more evident than when Tommy Lasorda joined the broadcast for a half inning. It's obvious that Hershiser feels his career success was due to his former manager and that in itself is touching. But it's not as if Lasorda doesn't have a large enough head as it is. Valentine was also doting on Lasorda, but more as a peer than as a "son" of Lasorda.

Orel still puts himself and his pitching too much into the conversation. The Fan hates when ex-players do that in the booth. But it has to be hard to avoid.

Bobby Valentine is still feeling his way in these broadcasts. You can feel him searching for his spots. There is a bit of self-consciousness in his tone. He works best on feeding off of Hershiser and the fact that both are formerly tied to the Dodgers organization gives them a natural bond. The chemistry between the two is fine and there does not appear to be any tension there. Valentine was properly respectful of the managers in the dugout and at times did a nice job of helping us know what they would be thinking.

The team's best moments were of brutal honesty when early in the game they discussed how helpless Barry Zito was. They were also instructive on how Zito's lack of ability to miss bats is hampered by less than stellar defense. The roasting of Aubrey Huff was the proper mix of honestly stating Huff's inadequacy out in right field, but also stating that it's wasn't Huff's fault because he really didn't belong out there. Another great moment of honesty was Valentine roasting the pitching choice of Jonathan Broxton throwing a slider to Aaron Rowand when it was obvious Rowand couldn't catch up to the fastball. Rowand's homer shouldn't have happened and Valentine told us all about it. So they told it like it was without tearing down the player.

Their best moment came when they properly roasted Miguel Tejada for swinging at the first pitch on a non-strike after the relief pitcher had just walked two straight guys, one bringing in a run. It was a terrible at bat for Tejada and Hershiser and Valentine were all over it. Hershiser then gave a concise observation about the pitch being in the middle of the plate but low and out of the strike zone. It was a brilliant moment.

There were some curious moments. One in particular stuck out and left the Fan gasping for more information. Shulman, or somebody made a point about the flexibility the Giants have in their line up construction. Tejada has bounced all over the line up so far. But then Bobby Valentine says that the Giants do a great job with that and praised the Giants players for their lack of egos concerning their flexibility. He then contrasted that with the Red Sox. What did he mean? What does he know about the players on the Red Sox? Was he talking about the Red Sox having players with too much ego? We'll never know. If you are going to open that kind of can of worms, at least let us in on the tease.

It is clear that Hershiser and Valentine offer far more to the table than Joe Morgan. Their insight is sharper and more clear. They don't hold back where Morgan was loathe to berate a play or a player. They come off as far less egotistical than Morgan.

But Shulman is a big step down from Jon Miller. Miller always showed us his own passion for the game and allowed us to get swept up in the emotional roller-coaster that is any kind of game. Shulman does not have the same kind of passion, does not have the same timbre in his voice and does not sound natural in big moments.

The Dodgers and Giants gave us a great game. And for the most part, the announcing team added a lot of fun to the telecast. It's not perfect, but overall, without Morgan, it's a lot juicier for the average fan and for the more devoted Fan of Major League Baseball.

Why Phil Hughes Struggled

Is there something wrong with Phil Hughes arm or shoulder or delivery? In his performance on Sunday against the Detroit Tigers, Hughes had no bite on his pitches. His fastball was without zip and was often flat, he seemed to throw way too many cut fastballs and his velocity shrunk as the game went along. Those were the observations that this Fan made while watching the game. But did PitchF/X back up those observations? They did indeed.

Last year, Phil Hughes threw the cutter 16.4 percent of the time. Last night according to PitchF/X, he threw it 41.1 percent of the time. So Hughes has either fallen in love with that pitch or he had no confidence in his regular four-seam fastball. He threw 40 regular fastballs and 37 cutters. He mixed in only ten curves and only three change-ups.

And to be sure, he did not have a good fastball. The average speed of his fastball was only 89.1 MPH, topping out at 91.5 MPH. But that only tells part of the story. He threw 90 pitches and the last time he hit 90 MPH was on his 57th pitch. So he didn't have his usual velocity and he lost it further as the game went along.

His cutter seems to be his favorite new toy and frankly, it's not Mariano-like. He was getting less than a inch of horizontal movement on the pitch, which is less than fanciful to say the least. And its average speed was only 83.5 MPH.

Compare these results to his April 21, 2010 start last year when his fastball averaged 92.5 MPH and his cutter at 88.1 MPH. Those are significant drops in velocity and take him from being snarky fast to freakin' hittable. Phil Hughes missed only two bats in 90 pitches. That's correct. Tiger batters only swung and missed twice out of  90 pitches Hughes threw.

Obviously that's not going to get it done. The Yankees say they aren't worried. Hughes said he isn't worried. Perhaps we'll have to take them at their word. But it sure seems suspicious and it certainly bears watching.

Game Picks - Monday: April 4, 2011

Sunday wasn't a good day for this game picker. Before the early dust had settled, the Fan was in an 0-5 hole. Then it was 1-6 and the Fan looked like a Vazquez fastball. Yes, Vazquez was one of those awful picks that one learns to regret. But he was one of many. The snow-out in Colorado didn't help. What do they think they are doing out there in Colorado? Do they think they are in Maine or something? But, back to Sunday: After the way things started, the Fan was fortunate to end up with six correct picks. It could have been far uglier than that. Thank goodness Miguel Tejada doesn't know enough to lay off a bad pitch after a relief pitcher has just walked in a run.

Monday has a light schedule with only six games on tap. Here's how they look:

• The Brewers over the Braves: Could the Brewers' season have started any worse? Monday features a match up between Narveson and newcomer, Brandon Beachy. All signs point to the Braves in this one. Narveson didn't have a good spring and he allows way too many base runners. Beachy had a great spring and consistently strikes out a batter an inning. But the Brewers have to win this game. So going with that.
• The Tigers over the Orioles: Just like the Brewers having to win a game sooner or later, the Orioles have to lose one sooner or later. They have their best chance of doing that with Arrieta on the mound. The Tigers counter with Porcello, which seems like the better bet.
• The Yankees over the Twins: The Yankees hardly ever lose to the Twins. The Twins start that fabulous Baker boy, who should be Home Run Baker in the Bronx. Ivan Nova needs to show his spring wasn't a fluke and that he deserves to be the fourth starter. He has to do better than Hughes did on Sunday. That was brutal. More on that tomorrow.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Would like to root for Erik Bedard, but this Fan just can't see him beating the Rangers, who should overcome whatever runs that young Holland gives up.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals got a W on Sunday (finally), and Kyle Lohse had a terrific spring. The Fan has to pick him keeping Bob Netherton in mind while doing so. Bob has a terrific blog over there and is probably Lohse's biggest supporter.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Cubs over the Diamondbacks: Randy Wells had a great spring. Saunders had a spring that made him look like a softball pitcher. And yeah, a career that has done the same. Cubs win easy.

Yesterday: 6-8
Week: 6-8
Month: 24-21
Season: 24-21
Games of the Day: 2-2

Just a reminder: This isn't a betting feature. While some may come here for that purpose, this is strictly for fun and the Fan would hate actual money to be lost because of these little old picks.

Does Flexibility like Prado and Zobrist Really Help?

Peter Gammons wrote an article over at MLB.com that basically says that players that are flexible should be rewarded for their flexibility and that this flexibility should be trained in the minor leagues. The article just doesn't sit right. The obvious examples used were Martin Prado of the Braves, Ben Zobrist of the Bay Rays as well as several other members of the Bay Rays' team. The Fan is fully cognizant that this writer isn't great at coming up with answers. But perhaps there is some value in raising the question for others to answer. Does flexibility really help a team and a player?

Let's take a guy like Martin Prado. The value in Prado's flexibility is not that he can field so many positions. His value lies in the fact that he is a productive hitter. Prado hasn't scored that well in defensive metrics for any of the multiple positions he has played. Baseball-reference.com gave Prado a -0.8 dWAR in 2010. That's not a good score at all. So would Prado's value be the same if he just played one position instead of five? That question will be answered this year if Chipper Jones stays healthy and Prado remains in left field.

Another example Gammons uses is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist played seven different positions in 2010. His defensive metrics were only on the positive side for fielding in right field and first base. All his other positions ended up in negative defensive statistics. And Zobrist did not have near the same kind of offensive season in 2010 that he did in 2009. And so the question has to be asked if Zobrist would be more valuable in one place than in seven?

The Bay Rays as a rule get high marks for their flexibility. But you have to notice that their most valuable players last year stayed in one position: Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria. Both were among the best with the glove in the league for their positions and both were near the top of the league in WAR. All those guys they have that move around so much didn't fare nearly as well.

There has been a lot of talk in recent years about practice. The Fan can't recall the number, but the theories say that you have to take a certain amount of reps at any given task to master it. Can you do that when you are playing 40 games at second, 30 games at third, 20 games at first and the rest of the time in the outfield? And after a while, does all the concentration it takes to play all those positions take away some of the edge when batting? The Fan doesn't know, but again, poses the questions. It just doesn't sit right though.

Reid Brignac is a brilliant shortstop. If you leave him alone at short for 155 games, he's going to come close to leading the league in defensive metrics. Does playing the flexibility card and sitting Brignac in certain situations (against lefties for one) help the team or hurt it? You end up with fifty games with a lessor fielder at short (such as Rodriguez or whomever). Brignac will never learn how to hit against lefties without the reps and so you might not get as much value from him due to the flexibility carte blanche that is given Joe Maddon. It seems to this observer that the most value Brignac can bring is to put him at short every game and take your chances.

It will be interesting to see where this trend goes. The players obviously don't like it. Bill Hall went to Houston because he was tired of playing all over the field. Sean Rodriguez of the Bay Rays has said he wants to play just one position. And who can blame them? There is something to be said for the comfort of staying in one place and getting the reps there every day.

The Fan has raised the questions. Make of it what you will. Hopefully someone with analytic chops will take hold of them and give us an intelligent answer that the Fan can't. The gut--that faultiest of all organs--says that it hurts a team and a player more than it helps them. What say you?

Matt Cain Continues to Confuse the System

Matt Cain got the Giants going yesterday with a flawless performance while the Giants' bats came alive to put together a 10-0 win over the Dodgers. It's not surprising that Cain is the guy who gets the Giants on the board this year. He'll never get the love that Tim Lincecum gets with all those strikeouts. Cain only struck out three batters in his six innings of scoreless work. But he only gave up five hits too. He walked none. The performance continued his excellence through last season's playoffs and World Series when he didn't give up a run.

Cain continues to confound the analysts. This guy over at Fangraphs.com said not to draft him in your fantasy league. They are starting to catch on a bit though. But it's been slow in coming. Here are some interesting tidbits concerning Cain:

• Cain has had only one season where his FIP was lower than his actual ERA. He's never had a season where his xFIP has been lower than his actual ERA.
• Cains wins above replacement (WAR) only ranked him 30th in the majors last years. Guys who finished ahead of him with no where near as good a record and ERA were: Greinke, Gavin Floyd, Anibal Sanchez, Chad Billingsley, Colby Lewis and Hiroki Kuroda. Would you rather have any of those guys on your team over Cain? Well, maybe Greinke.
• Matt Cain's BABIP for his career is .266. Can anyone be that lucky for that long?
• Matt Cain's Home run to Fly ball percentage for his career is only 7 percent. He has the 11th best stat in that category over the last three years.

There is no doubt that analysts are trying to figure out what makes Cain so successful. A good example is this Fangraphs article found here. The Fan isn't smart enough to lead the way in telling you why Cain does so well. The only point of this post is to tell you that this guy has put up over 1,000 quality innings in the last five years and there is no way the Giants win the World Series without him. After a spring concern with a sore elbow, Cain has come out in 2011 and has thrown another gem. And his big win got the Giants off the bubble.

The Fan can't tell you why Cain is so good. But the Fan can tell you that the guy is money.

Game Picks - Sunday: April 3, 2011

For the first time this season, all thirty major league teams were in action. It was a good test for the Fantom Prognosticator and the results were mostly positive. It surprised this picker that the Cardinals lost again and that the Royals won again. It was a shock that Tommy Hanson didn't have much to show for his efforts. And the Fan should have certainly seen an uprising occurring for the Giants in the third game of their series with the Dodgers. But those six wrong picks were overcome with nine correct picks, the best of which was a Mets win over the Marlins.

As we head into Sunday, the first official week of the season concludes and the first full week of the season begins. There is another full slate of games today and it should be a beautiful day of baseball. Isn't this great!?

• The White Sox over the Indians: The White Sox have already won the first two games and they finally get to their best pitcher today (Danks). The only chance the Indians have is a good performance by Masterson. Not buying that.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: The Yankees have started their season on a mission it seems. Today they get Scherzer. Phil Hughes should get the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: The Blue Jays are simply destroying the Twins who have come out flat and empty. Brett Cecil is yet another reliable starter and the Twins counter with Blackburn.
• The Brewers over the Reds: It looks like the Fan will keep picking this until it is true. Wolf over Arroyo who might be weak from having mono.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Vazquez goes for the Marlins and he'll continue what is the wackiest current career of all MLB pitchers. The Mets counter with knuckleballer, Dickey.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann had a great spring and the Fan is rooting for him. But Hudson and the Braves will overcome yesterday's loss and win the game.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Don't you think that Roy Oswalt will be pumped for this game? Yeah, he should be. Norris gets hit around a bit for Houston.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Everything screams to pick an Orioles' sweep. But Wade Davis will have something to say about that. Britton gets the start for the Orioles and though a great prospect, will be overcome in this game.
• The Red Sox over the Rangers: Now we start to get into the softer side of the Rangers rotation with Harrison on the mound for the Rangers. The Red Sox have their second best pitcher (maybe first best!) in Clay Buchholz.
• The Royals over the Angels: Sorry. The Fan can't pick any game that Kazmir starts. Just can't. Chen with the win.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Dustin Moseley is starting for the Padres? Uh...no. Going with Jaime Garcia and the Cards to get their first win of the season.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: One word for the Rockies win: Saunders. Ugh. Chacin with the win.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Gio Gonzalez might be the best of Oakland's starters. He beats Fister. 
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Yeah, the Giants romped last night. But they throw Barry Zito out there today. That car accident couldn't have helped. Kuroda goes for the Dodgers.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Cubs over the Pirates: When was the last time that Ohlendorf won a game? Exactly. Garza gets the win for the Cubs.

Yesterday: 9-6

Last week: 18-13

Month: 18-13

Season: 18-13

Games of the Day: 2-1