A Fine Mess in Yankee Land

The Yankees are led on the field by two former catchers. With Joe Girardi as manager and Tony Pena as his right hand man, they knew the writing was on the wall for Jorge Posada as a catcher after watching him last year.  They saw what we all saw and that was that Posada just wasn't a good option for the Yankees behind the plate any more. And so Posada was told flat out after the season that he was done as the Yankees' catcher. It was the right call. In fact, it should have been done sooner. Except the Yankees had no one else to take his place. This decision hasn't set well with Posada as anyone can imagine. This writer had posted earlier in the season that Posada's body language was terrible. If you sort through all the garbage that went down last night at Yankee Stadium, the thing that becomes clear is that all this boiled over for Posada with the news that he would bat ninth in the Yankees' batting order.

As we all know by now, Posada took himself out of the line up. The reasons behind his move have been debated and picked over as all things concerning the Yankees always are. He says his back hurt. Girardi and Brian Cashman said they had no knowledge of said injury. There were reports of a heated argument between Girardi and Posada prior to his Posada's self-scratch. What a mess. Now all parties are in spin control and none of this helps the fact that the Yankees are sinking toward the .500 mark while the Bay Rays are on a run and the Red Sox are finally charging the .500 mark.

None of this, of course, should take away from the fact that Jorge Posada had a great career as the Yankees catcher. He's got a fist full of World Series rings and he's been one of the greats as an offensive catcher. But it also seems obvious that Jorge Posada is a proud man and sometimes that pride creates situations that proud men will eventually regret. David Ortiz, who has been on his own end of the "put-up-or-shut-up" scenario in Boston defended Posada and said the Yankees were doing to old catcher wrong. And while Ortiz did say that Posada shouldn't have taken himself out of the game, Ortiz shares Posada's pride and can relate to what Posada is going through.

This Fan has the same take on things as with the Michael Young situation in Texas. When you are making that much money, you should smile while you clean the toilets. That's life. The difference is that Young got to play due to injuries around the diamond and got off to a great start. Meanwhile, Posada's performance is what led to the current crisis the Yankees now face.

Here are some other salient points this Fan can think of:

• Yes, the other member of the old Core, Derek Jeter, is struggling offensively and seems to get a pass.
• But, Jeter is manning his position capably, something Posada could no longer do.
• Posada isn't the face of the franchise like Jeter and is not pushing for a milestone like Jeter is. If Jeter is still struggling when he reaches 3,000 hits, we'll see what happens to his place in the line up.
• The Yankees helped create this situation by overpaying Posada a couple of years ago to a contract that would take the old catcher way past his point of usefulness. They are now reaping the crap of that decision.
• Jorge Posada has not handled this situation with any amount of grace. His acts, at least from what we can see, are unprofessional.

So, yes, the Yankees are magnified above and beyond any other team in baseball. When things start to go sour, the media (both social and professional) pounce on any kind of controversy to the tenth degree. It can't be any fun right now for Joe Girardi, Derek Jeter, Brian Cashman and yes, Jorge Posada. If all this was happening in San Diego, nobody would be noticing and this wouldn't add so much pressure to the situation. Posada's situation seems a lot like Ken Griffey's last year. That didn't end well in Seattle and this situation with Posada won't end well either. It's not a good thing when sagging performance due to age is combined with those struggles of the team.

Who knows where the Yankees go from here. Perhaps they stick Posada back in the nine hole (though strategically, eight seems better) and leave him there and perhaps Posada starts to hit a little bit after getting his hubris hit by this story. Perhaps the Yankees trade him to the two million teams who need a catcher. Perhaps if the Yankees start winning again, the whole story goes away. From any perspective, the whole thing is a mess right now and the Yankees and Posada better find a way to turn things around in a hurry.

Game Picks - Sunday: May 15, 2011

Saturday was not a good day. Kyle McClellan's perfect season was made less perfect. Josh Beckett again throttled the Yankees while ace, C. C. Sabathia, has not been able to throw zeros. Josh Collmenter was terrific in a rain-shortened game. Didn't see that coming. The Padres destroyed the Rockies' bullpen with the culminating blow hit by their old friend, Brad Hawpe, off of Huston Street. The Reds completely out-played the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks won a 1-0 game over the Dodgers. All those bad picks left this picker sucking wind as this strange season continues. The rained-out game in Cleveland didn't help as that would probably have been a good pick. The downer of a day left the week and the month pretty near the .500 mark.

Perhaps this week will be better. It all starts with Sunday:

• The Tigers over the Royals: This hasn't been a good weekend for the Royals. Today won't be any easier as Max Scherzer is already 6-0 and all the Royals can do is counter with Kyle Davies. Not pretty.
• The Indians over the Mariners: The rain-out yesterday allows the Mariners to skip a weak link in their rotation and get Michael Pineda back out there against the hot Indians. But it won't be enough as the Mariners can't score enough to win. Josh Tomlin gets the win.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: It's been a tough weekend for the Cardinals. And today's game looks tough to pick. The Cards defense and bullpen have been problems and Chris Carpenter has struggled. But the Cards should score enough against Travis Wood to at least win one game of the series.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: Jason Marquis has had a season to match his last name. Meanwhile, the Marlins continue to roll out Javier Vazquez to negative results.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Roy Halladay should dominate and the Phillies hit Tim Hudson pretty well. Not a good day for Braves fans.
• The Orioles over the Bay Rays: Simply can't go with the Bay Rays with Andy Sonnanstine pitching. Going with Jake Arrieta and the Orioles.
• The Mets over the Astros: The Mets have the advantage facing Aneury Rodriguez. Chris Capuano has three quality starts out of his last four. Don't let his record fool you.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Kevin Correia has been good, but the Brewers have Zack Greinke on the mound. The Brewers are hanging around thanks to see-saw play from the rest of the division.
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: Brandon Morrow has yet to have that lights out game. The Twins offense will allow him to have that today. Brian Duensing won't have enough support to win.
• The Giants over the Cubs: Carlos Zambrano is back to being a very good pitcher for the Cubs. But he's no match for Tim Lincecum.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Ervin Santana has been MIA so far this year. You have to wonder if he is healthy as he's just not fooling anyone. The Rangers, meanwhile, throw out their ace in C. J. Wilson.
• The Padres over the Rockies: Today's upset special is for the Padres to win their second game in a row over the Rockies. Matt Latos isn't as bad as his record and is due for a win. Jason Hammel has had a good season but can be had.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: Trevor Cahill has been the best pitcher in the American League and is starting to make believers out there. The White Sox counter with the usually reliable Mark Beuhrle.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Ian Kennedy is starting to make a case as a very good pitcher. Ted Lilly is good but not great. The D-backs have to score four runs to win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Jon Lester versus Freddie Garcia. Game. Set. Match.

Yesterday: 6-8
Last week: 45-43
Month: 94-90
Season: 306-268
Games of the Day: 23-22

Jose Bautista Is Early MVP

Can we put the "Jose Bautista's 2010 season was a fluke" stories to rest now? Yeah, you could say that. The season is early and the sample size small, but Jose Bautista is ruling the world. What offensive category do you want to look at? Jose Bautista is there. He's third in the majors in batting average. He's first in on base percentage. He's first in slugging. He's first in homers. He's first in wOBA. He's first in wRC+. And he's first in WAR. In many of those categories, nobody is even close.

Everyone focused on Bautista's homers last year. But even more of a surprise was his patience at the plate. If he didn't get his pitch, he wasn't going to swing. He walked one hundred times last year and only two of those walks were intentional. Which leads to the question of why teams pitch to him. He's only received one intentional pass this year. But the point is, Bautista has become a terrifically selective hitter. The only knock on his season last year was his batting average of .260. That fairly mundane batting average was almost directly related to his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His BABIP last year was an amazingly low .238. This year, his balls in play are finding the ground and the batting average has responded accordingly. He is also hitting more line drives this year, which helps tremendously.

Jose Bautista has played 31 games so far and already has 13 homers. He's already walked 35 times and has struck out only 19 times. JoBau has also scored 39 runs and has driven in 23. His walk to strikeout ratio is double what it was last year. If you can believe this, his home runs to fly ball percentage is actually up from last year. Last year, 21.7 percent of his fly balls went over the fence. This year, that figure is up to 27.7 percent.

Bautista is in the perfect home ballpark for this blossoming of his career. His home/road splits last year showed his home OPS at 1.118 while his road OPS was still a respectable .879. There is still a disparity for the slugger at home. His OPS at home this year is an obscene 1.667. But his road OPS is still otherworldly at 1.091.

Last night began as a tough night for Bautista. Playing in the spacious Twins' home park, he had gone hitless in  five plate appearances with a walk. The game was still tied going into the top of the eleventh inning. Corey Patterson hit a single to start off the inning. The Twins immediately pulled Glen Perkins and replaced him with Jim Hoey. That ended up haunting Gardenhire as Bautista then hit a mammoth shot to the opposite field, only his second opposite field homer in the last two years. Both have been in Minnesota. Hoey was obviously rattled by the homer and walked the next two batters. That led to a six-run rally, all started by Bautista, and sunk the Twins. It was a typical reminder of just what Bautista can do to destroy a team in any given game.

There were debates before the season started if Bautista should play third base. The Blue Jays have struggled at that position. The Blue Jays finally decided to leave their best player in right field. It was the right decision. And not only is Bautista delivering at the plate, he's turned himself into a really good right fielder and his defensive metrics are fantastic this year. Not only is his UZR impressive, but his arm and arm accuracy rate at the top of the charts in the Fans Scouting Report. Bautista is the complete package for the Blue Jays.

This Fan doesn't blame the skeptics who believed Bautista's season last year was a fluke. The guy came out of nowhere to put together a monster season. Watching him play last year, you could just see that Bautista had figured something out and that he was as confident as any player could be. His performance when watched put to rest any kind of doubt about how good this guy was. He is even better this year. There is a lot of season left to go, but judging from what Bautista has done so far, last year looks more like the new norm than any kind of fluke. And it sure is fun to watch.

Game Picks - Saturday: May 14, 2011

There's no place like home. It's nice to be back and writing in the FanDome after Blogger's lost day yesterday. Thanks again to a good friend like C70 At The Bat for hosting this feature yesterday. Their graciousness kept the streak intact as not a day has been missed since 2009 (the last time Blogger blew up). It's a shame that the pick for the Cardinals didn't go as expected. A blown save cost the Cards the game. But overall, it wasn't a bad day of picking. So far this season, anything over .500 has been a good day. If only Joba had thrown Youkilis the slider he was all set up for instead of that high fastball. If only the Yankees could try to hit the ball to the opposite field. If only the Fan had picked the Brewers or the Mets. 9-6 on the day isn't bad though. And it's good to be home.

Speaking of home, many of the Fan's writing buddies are urging that this site be moved to Word Press instead of using Blogger. We'll see. It's hard to beat Blogger for ease of use and for the backing of Google as Blogger's search engine.

So how does Saturday look?

• The Marlins over the Nationals: Somehow, the return of Logan Morrison escaped this writer's attention. But there he was last night and he hit a homer. His return just adds to that line up. Anibal Sanchez versus Livan Hernandez.
• The Indians over the Mariners: How can you pick against the Indians at home? What a story this is turning out to be! Erik Bedard has his worst start of the year against the Indians but has pitched fairly well his last three times out. Alex White is a wild card for the Indians, but again, how can you pick against them?
• The Braves over the Phillies: Joe Blanton's elbow is a problem. Jair Jurrjens has been very good. The Braves should win this one.
• The Rockies over the Padres: Aaron Harang relies on movement. Colorado is where such pitchers go to die. Jhoulys Chacin with the win.
• The White Sox over the Athletics: The White Sox match up well in this series and Gavin Floyd (if his foot is healthy enough) should neutralize the A's bats enough to give Tyson Ross the hard luck loss.
• The Mets over the Astros: R. A. Dickey hasn't been great, but David Wright is starting to hit and the Astros can't hit much at all. J. A. Happ goes for the Astros. Happ has one win in his last seven starts.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Dan Haren is really good. But the Rangers already beat Jared Weaver. Derek Holland must hold the Angels to four runs or less to let the Rangers' bats win the game.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Brad Bergesen hasn't been good so far this year and he didn't pitch well against the Bay Rays in his last start against them. This Fan is still concerned about Wade Davis and his velocity, but he's pitching well at home.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Can Brad Penny continue to pitch well? Who knows. If he does, the Tigers win. If he doesn't, well, we'll see what the Tigers can do against Jeff Francis, who hasn't won a game yet.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: A suspect pitching match up of Chris Narveson versus Jeff Karstens seems to cancel each other out. When the pitchers are evenly matched, always go with the better offense.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Kyle McClellan is 5-0, but his K/BB ratio is a little bit of a concern. Johnny Cueto was really good his last time out, but let's see how he rebounds in his next start. 
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: It's difficult adjusting to the Twins as the new Royals of the Central division. Jose Bautista is still mashing and that should be enough over Nick Blackburn. Jo-Jo Reyes hasn't won a game this season. Perhaps this will be the one.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Josh Collmenter has been a great story, but this is his first start in the big leagues against the Dodgers who are home. Clay Billingsley gets the win.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: C. C. Sabathia hasn't had a dominant start yet this season. He needs one to win this game at home. Josh Beckett blew the Yankees out of the water his last time out. The Yankees will be looking for revenge.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Giants over the Cubs: Ryan Vogelsong has been singing a fine tune for the Giants. Meanwhile, Doug Davis is making his first start since last year. Not good.

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 39-35
Month: 88-82
Season: 300-266
Games of the Day: 22-22  (back to .500 finally)

Why Isn't It Working!

Technology has changed our lives and unless you are Amish (wonderful people by the way), computers and the Internet are part of that change. Many of us make our livings that are totally dependent on this technology. Is the Fan the only one totally schizoid about our banking being totally run by computers? Social Media is the latest chapter in this technological evolution. Millions of us are communicating with voices all our own. But what happens when it doesn't work? What if the power goes out? What if the blogging tool of our choice goes down for a long period of time? What if Twitter kept popping up a "Twitter is over capacity" message for days instead of minutes? We get on and we want things to work. We don't want problems. And when it doesn't work, boy are we angry. Being a Fan isn't too much different. We want our ballplayers to "work." In other words, work is defined here as, "playing as expected." Playing above expectation is a bonus. But under expectation? That is a problem.

And thus we fans are like those of us who use Blogger for our blog host. Every blip is a personal affront. Every out or outage is met with increasing scorn and frustration. Fans are frustrated that Derek Jeter, Ryan Dempster, Ryan Franklin, Jorge Posada, John Lackey, Carl Crawford, Vernon Wells, Buster Posey, Carl Pavano, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and so many others fail to live up to expectations. With the instantaneousness of Twitter, we become a bandwagon of antipathy for those players as early slumps continue to plague them. Often that frustration turns into booing.

Imagine for a moment that you were that ballplayer. Imagine the pressure building up inside because the performance on the field is no where as easy as what it should be. Imagine thousands of Twitter accounts blasting your every ground ball, foul pop up and strikeout. Josh Thole, the young catcher for the Mets recently deactivated his Twitter account because he was getting blasted for his performance. Imagine thousands of home town fans booing you when it's not working? Imagine that team market getting into a frenzy because we writers need interesting things to write about and there are none more interesting than failure?

Yes, you say, all that is true, but they are living the good life. The players get pampered and paid well and should expect whatever treatment we give them. We, after all, pay their salaries. But behind the money and the gratuitous lifestyles and the entitlements, are real people...human beings. Nearly every major league player was the star of their high school team. They grew up with no-hitters and batting .500 for the season. Suddenly, they get to the top of their profession and they are 50 percent more likely to fail than before. And when you make it to the top, there's always someone younger and cheaper just itching to take your place.

The Fan has decided to give Blogger and Twitter the same kind of grace today. Yeah, the old ulcers flared inside today when no posts were available to this site's readers. It's taken a long time to build up the kind of traffic this site now receives. That was hard work and commitment to doing this as well as possible. It doesn't take long for people to take their eyes and mouse clicks somewhere else.

But let's face it, nobody has had a more stressful couple of days than the team over at Blogger. This Fan created the customer service team for a software company. It was hard enough when the technology broke down and 40,000 people--customers--were unhappy. Imagine multiplying that by a factor of ten, or a hundred! Can you only imagine the panic that was going on in that war room? Twitter has 30 million users. Imagine keeping those servers running smoothly! It's staggering to think about. In many ways, these products are the victims of their own success. It happens.

So the Fan has to admit yelling a few times, "Why isn't it WORKING!?" A few colorful words were hurled in Blogger's direction. And once Blogger finally came back up, Twitter hiccuped. ARRRRrrrggghh! Perhaps it takes the wisdom a more than a couple of decades on this planet to take a step back once in a while and understand that crap happens, even to the best of products...and of players. It takes a smile of hindsight to understand that those ballplayers and the people of Blogger and Twitter have been shouting the exact same phrase.

Game Picks - Friday: May 13, 2011

Since Blogger had its, by now, famous fiasco, today's picks are over here. Thanks for hanging in there. And thanks  to C70 At The Bat for allowing the post to go over there.

Eleven Time Zero Equals Zero

There is no end to the fun one can have by playing in baseball-reference.com's Play Index. To say that this premium feature of the site is worth every penny that's paid for it, is an understatement. One such search this morning led to what seems to be a very fun fact. These findings are not only interesting, but they may be interesting to those who play fantasy baseball. Though, as you are about to see, the groans they utter at these findings won't be big news if they have these players on their fantasy teams. This little post is about players who contributed zero to their team's offense for a significant chunk of the season.

First of all, you won't find Jorge Posada on this list of woe. His ability to at least walk regularly takes him out of the mix. This find was all about finding players who had the most amount of games so far where they didn't provide a hit, a walk or even a hit by pitch. They drove in no runs. The search was also going to include no sacrifice bunts. But since the Fan ran out of room on his search there was no way to preclude that statistic in these findings. But, that's just as well because this Fan hates sacrifice bunts and never thinks giving up an out is worth the trouble. The Yankees again proved this fact out when they encountered Soria down by a run in the bottom of the tenth inning last night. Soria couldn't find the strike zone if he had a halogen lantern. He walked Russell Martin on four pitches and none were close. The Yankees insisted in having Brett Gardner sacrifice instead of waiting out Soria. They even did so when Soria fell behind in the count. Gardner got his sacrifice, but the Yankees only tied the score instead of winning the game which another out might have given them.

But wait, the Fan got seriously off track there. That's what talking about bunts will do. Anyway, the following list are those players who lead the majors in games where they got at least four plate appearances and did nothing...nothing at all.

The leaders at eleven games each: Vernon Wells and Dan Uggla. Both players were acquired by their present teams (The Angels and Braves respectively) to boost the offense. And yet both have managed to play at least thirty-two percent of their games while offering absolutely no offense. Oh, perhaps they might have moved a runner along with the old saw about hitting it to the right side with a runner on second. Somebody needs to study if that is really valuable or not. But other than those instances, these two guys, who were acquired for offense have each had eleven games where they were notably absent from that offense. Wells has an OPS+ of 48 so far this season. Ugly. Dan Uggla has an OPS+ of 84. Hardly what those teams were hoping for. But there is a lot of season left.

Those just behind with ten games of nothingness: Juan Pierre, Austin Jackson, Ryan Ludwick, Dan Johnson, Carl Crawford, Chone Figgins, Mark Ellis and Ian Desmond. It must surely suck for those who root for the White Sox and Tigers that their lead off guys are on this list. Their sole job is to get on base, right? Yet, in thirty percent of their games, they have been invisible. Both Jackson and Pierre have some amazing statistics. Jackson has already struck out fifty times. He's well on pace for 200 or more. Pierre, once he does get on base, has managed to get thrown out stealing eight times in fourteen attempts. So when he finally gets on base, he doesn't stay there. Of all the people on either list, only Dan Johnson has lost playing time.

Just for reference, the leaders last year in games where the player offered no hits, no walks, no hit by pitches and no RBIs were Carlos Lee (38), Miguel Tejada (37), Garrett Jones (36) and Aaron Hill (30).

Game Picks - Thursday: May 12, 2011

This week has slipped off the tracks. What started out as a joy ride is now turning into a train wreck. And it could have been even worse if the Athletics hadn't the worst luck on the planet. There they were jumping all over Texas to build a 7-0 lead when the rains came and washed all their hard work away. This game picker can feel their pain. There was no end to the crapfest as the day started out 0-7! The Yankees went to extra innings and then said, screw it, and put in their worst pitchers to get the game over with. Thanks for trying, guys. Tim Hudson had nothing. Jake Westbrook had nothing. The Pirates had nothing. The Brewers pitching was so bad that the Padres had 23 hits. The Padres!? 23 hits!? The Orioles were better than Felix Hernandez. The Reds can't seem to win consistently. And the Twins just might never win another game. This time, the West Coast saved the day. Well, it still sucked, but it could have sucked much worse. At least Jesse Litsch gave the Fan a moment to feel good about.

Thursday has the shortest schedule we've seen so far this season with only eight games on the schedule. Let's see if the Fan can get the training wheels back on at least:

• The Bay Rays over the Indians: So sad to hear that Sizemore is going to have an MRI for his knee. Some times the world just isn't fair. Meanwhile, Shields has been fantastic and faces the equally fantastic Justin Masterson. One of them has to win.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: This is hard to admit, but the Cardinals are not the same without Tony LaRussa in the dugout. But Jaime Garcia should be better than Casey Coleman.
• The Rockies over the Mets: The same pitchers that were scheduled in the postponed game are pitching today. Ubaldo Jiminez still beats Jonathan Niese.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Daniel Hudson has been ice lately. He should show less cracks than Matt Cain, a worthy opponent. 
• The Yankees over the Royals: Ivan Nova certainly doesn't inspire the greatest of confidence and the Yankees capitulation in the game last night was like throwing a challenge on Survivor. But Nova should beat Sean O'Sullivan.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: At least in Jon Garland, the Pirates have a chance to score some runs. The Fan doesn't quite believe in Charlie Morton's 4-1 record and his ERA. But there you have it.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Just last week, the Braves looked like they were ready to take on the world. This week, they don't look ready to take on even the Nationals. Zimmermann keeps the Nats in the game long enough to beat Derek Lowe and his foot blisters.

And the Game of the Day

• The Orioles over the Mariners: Okay, the Fan will say it: The Orioles are a different team with J. J. Hardy on the field. Okay, commence smiling. But this Fan believes that. Plus, Zach Britton should beat Jason Vargas.

Yesterday: 5-8
Week: 27-25
Month: 76-72
Season; 288-256
Games of the Day: 20-22

Mariano Rivera Defies Logic

At the age of 41, Mariano Rivera is currently on pace for 61 saves this season. Yes, we all know that "Saves" are an overblown statistic. Yes, we know logically that pitching one inning in the ninth inning isn't that much more important than pitching well in any other inning. But geez, you know, this writer keeps coming back to teams that have trouble finishing games out. The Mariners lost yesterday because of their closer. And that was after the Orioles blew their own save. The Cardinals would have the best record in baseball if not for blown saves. The Astros lost a handful of games because their closer couldn't get the job done. But year after year, Mariano Rivera gets the job done.

And then you listen to former Yankees who provide color commentary for the YES Network say repeatedly that there would have been no Yankee dynasty without Rivera. And you watch game after game where seemingly every pitch hits the catcher's target with pinpoint precision. You see guys like Eric Hosmer get his first look at Rivera last night. Rivera made a mistake during Hosmer's at bat and left a pitch right in Hosmer's wheelhouse. Hosmer swung and missed it. You watch this guy game after game throw those same two types of fastballs and nothing else and 99 percent of the time, it's a lock. It's simply amazing.

And what of Rivera's influence on the game? Before Mariano Rivera, you never heard much about a cut fastball. Now it's a deadly pitch in Roy Halladay's arsenal. It's a big pitch for Jon Lester. Cut fastballs are everywhere now. The pitch has become this era's hot pitch much like the split-fingered pitch became the big thing after Bruce Sutter. What about the psyche of apposing teams who feel like they have to get ahead of the Yankees before the late innings because they have no confidence that the Yankees will blow a lead late?

This writer is definitely split on the subject of closers. The Fan is on record in saying that a closer should never win a Cy Young Award. There is simply no way that the value of an inning a game and 70 innings a season is higher than the value of a good starting pitcher with 220 innings. This Fan knows that the "save" is a flawed statistic and one worthy of the scorn of analysts. At the same time, dominant closers change the dynamic of the games they participate in. Teams don't want to relinquish a lead late to Rivera and whatever other closer is hot in any given season.

And the other thing about the great Mariano Rivera is his consistency. People talk all the time about relievers having good and bad years. People mention how creating a good bullpen is one part luck and one part timing. Guys like Brad Lidge, Jonathan Papelbon, Jonathan Broxton, Bobby Jenks and others come and go and are effective and then they're not. And always, there's Mariano Rivera doing the same thing season after season.

Mariano Rivera's highest homer per nine inning ratio since 1995 was in 2009 when it was 0.95. In every other season, it's never been higher than 0.63 and the figure sits at 0.48 for his career. He hasn't given up a single homer this year. At the age of 41, Rivera has a seven to one strikeout to walk ratio. When Rivera walks someone, it's always a surprise. His walks per nine innings this year is 1.08. Rivera has a career BABIP against of .261. That's a lot of bad contact. In the last five seasons (including the present one), Rivera has averaged twelve pitches an inning. Twelve! Amazing.

It is probable that Rivera won't get 61 saves. For one thing, the Yankees' offense hasn't really gotten rolling yet and when they do, there are a lot more laughers and less need for a save. But he does have an outside chance of catching Trevor Hoffman by year's end in career saves. But even having the conversation at his age with just two types of fastballs as his only weapons, is a phenomenon in and of itself.

So yes, the save is not a well-respected statistic. Yes, it is overrated. Yes, a team is going to win 91% of all games they head into the ninth with a lead. But after saying all of that, Mariano Rivera is the most fascinating and amazing athlete this Fan has ever watched. In fact, the legend of Rivera is so big in this writer's mind that each time he pitches, there is a cringe that this might finally be the day that Rivera bows to age and becomes human. The legend is so large that the Fan wants Rivera to walk off into the sunset intact. The man's dignity and grace are just as high on the scale as his amazing longevity and success. There has been no one like him. And that's how the Fan wants him to remain.

Game Picks - Wednesday: May 11, 2011

Yesterday's post featured a strange dream that made the day start earlier than planned. Perhaps picking games after such a dream caused temporary insanity as the picks had a bad night. It's a shame because the week was off to a flying start. Those plucky Cleveland Indians caused one of those bad picks with another thrilling win. In hindsight, picking the Astros and the Pirates was a bit of...well...insanity. The Nationals had a surprising uprising against Tim Hudson and the Braves. But bad defense was the culprit there. The big duel of Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay went exactly as predicted here with Halladay indeed lasting longer. But Halladay lost when the Marlins' Coghlan hit the game winning single. It was a thrilling night of baseball. Which, at the end of the day is a lot more important than these silly picks.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Twins over the Tigers: Yes. The Twins win behind that fabulous Baker boy simply because Phil Coke simply shouldn't be in the starting rotation.
• The Brewers over the Padres: Tim Stauffer has made seven starts and has pitched great, but he only has one decision, a loss. That kind of luck won't help as he gives up a few runs to the Brewers who have a mini-roll going. Randy Wolf goes for the Brewers.
• The Reds over the Astros: The Astros can't hit. Period. So it won't matter how good Wandy Rodriguez pitches. It won't matter at all. Edinson Voquez goes for the Reds.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: Gio Gonzalez pitches a gem and Matt Harrison is heading in the wrong direction after a hot start.
• The Rockies over the Mets: Ike Davis is important to the Mets and he is out of the line up. Ubaldo Jiminez gets his first win over Jonathan Niese.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Vin Mazzaro makes his first start in the majors and A. J. Burnett is always a knuckle biter. In the end, the Yankees' offense wins the day.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: Yeah, this is probably a stupid pick. But Paul Maholm has been keeping his team in the game and Kuroda is on a home run allowing jag.
• The Mariners over the Orioles: It's nice to see J. J. Hardy back for the Orioles. He tightens their defense immeasurably. But this Fan just can't see Chris Tillman beating Felix Hernandez.
• The Bay Rays over the Indians: On paper, David Price versus Carlos Carrasco is a mismatch. Thinking here is that paper will transfer to the field.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Jose Bautista and company will jump all over John Lackey while Jesse Litsch gives the Blue Jays a chance to win.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: After last night's giddy win, the Marlins throw out Ricky Nolasco, who can strike out ten Phillies if he's on. Cliff Lee can be had early. Nolasco has to be good for this pick to win.
• The Cubs over the Cardinals: This was is simply based on the feeling that Matt Garza will come up big and that Jake Westbrook will bend enough to give the Cubs a win.
• The White Sox over the Angels: This pick is simply a wish that Jake Peavy comes back strong. You have to root for him even when it isn't logical. Tyler Chatwood is a pretty good pitcher though.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Jonathan Sanchez pitches much better at home and the Giants should score a few off of Galarraga.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Braves over the Nationals: The Braves get back on track with big Tommy Hanson mowing down Nat's hitters while the Braves score four or five off of John Lannon.

Yesterday: 6-9
Week: 22-17
Month; 71-64
Season: 283-247
Games of the Day: 20-21

The Minnesota Twins Are Really Bad

The baseball world has been tossed on its head so far this season. The Pirates are over .500 and sit only two games back of the first place Cardinals. The Pirates have a better record than the Texas Rangers, who are currently under .500. The AL East and the NL East are playing out pretty much as expected. But over in the American League Central division, there seems to be a new world order. The Indians are in first place. The Royals are in second. The Tigers are making a move lately and are in third. And there at the bottom are the Minnesota Twins and the White Sox. Those two last teams are a combined 26-43. A win by the White Sox on Monday night pushed them ahead of the Twins and left the Twins in last place and gasping for air.

How bad are the Twins? They are in last place in the majors in OPS+. They are in next to last place in the majors in ERA+. Can they at least field? Well, they are in the bottom half of those metrics as well in both fielding percentage and defensive efficiency. If it wasn't for Denard Span, who by all fielding systems, is having a great defensive seasons, it would be much worse. You are not going to win a lot of games if you have the worst hitting in the majors and the next to worst pitching and your defense is suspect.

Last night, they got a great pitching performance from Nick Blackburn and the bullpen but could only score one run in eleven innings and eventually lost to the Boston Red Sox. The loss gave the Twins the worst record in baseball if you go by winning percentage. Ouch.

And we're talking about a team that has been in the playoffs for six of the last ten years including the last two. Are they this bad? Have they fallen this hard? Is this finally an indictment of their system which has been built to get to the playoffs but can never win them? Maybe.

Did this writer have concerns that were pointed out before the season started about the make up of this team? Yes. Indeed. Like the White Sox in 2010, the Twins made some decisions over the off season that were baffling. They are a team that famously preaches pitching to contact. But then the moves they made over the off season weakened their defense. If you pitch to contact, you have to catch the ball and throw it accurately. They also re-signed a couple of players that gave them good seasons last year but were questionable going forward because of age. Jim Thome and Carl Pavano have not been effective.

The infield has been a mess. Starting the season with Alexi Casilla at short was a huge mistake. Their big off season acquisition of Tsuyoshi Nishioka really didn't get off the ground since he broke his leg in his sixth game in the majors. But the signs were pointing to a problem as he had poor fundamentals in the field and was having trouble adjusting to major league pitching. Danny Valencia at third was such a nice find last year that much was expected of him this year. To this point, he hasn't had a good season. He is showing signs of offensive life lately though. And Justin Morneau still hasn't gotten back to where he was before his concussion.

How bad offensively has the Twins' infield been so far? Their slash line at shortstop so far is: .200/.267/.305. Their slash line at second base is: .161/.188/.226. Yowza, that's bad. Third base has been manned by Valencia fairly consistently. The Twins' slash line there is: .230/.304/.363. And first basemen (mostly Morneau) have a slash line of .252./.308/.398. That's not the kind of production you want from the first base position. And the infield isn't the only problem.

The DH has been disappointing after offering to be a strength when the season started. The slash line there is: .220/.298/.339. Left field has been a problem. The slash line there has been: .216/.276/.259. Yeesh. Certainly, the loss of Delmon Young to injury hasn't helped, but it's not like he was producing anyway. His OPS in sixteen games was .566.

Joe Mauer's inability to get on the field hasn't helped at all. Certainly, if he has been in the line up, they'd have a few more wins. The catchers that have struggled to replace him have a combined slash line of: .149/.203/.184. Whoof. That's bad.

So if you put all those numbers together, it adds up to a pile of losses and no offensive production. All of the five teams in front of them in offensive numbers are National League teams where the pitchers hit and there is no DH. Would anyone have thought that this year's Twins would take the Mariners' place as the worst offense in baseball?

A strong case can be made that injuries have played a part of those numbers. Mauer hasn't played (rendering the catch phrase of, "Well played, Mauer. Well played," a bit ironic). You could say that Justin Morneau's lack of production comes from recurring fallout from his concussion. As mentioned, Delmon Young has missed a chunk of time. Nishioka has been out since the sixth game of the season. Jim Thome has missed a chunk of time. The Twins offense should improve if all those players come back. But will it be too late by then?

Another culprit might be their ballpark. When a ballpark is that big and knocks out a team's power, you need a different kind of team. You need one that has speed and can run and do those little things to score runs in other ways. Only two teams in the AL have less stolen bases. Batters leading off the game have a .172 batting average and a .250 on base percentage. Batters leading off innings have a .214 batting average and a .298 on base percentage. Big ballparks require on base percentage to offset the lack of power production.

And the pitching isn't what the Twins expected. Again, the pitching to contact and walking few batters has been the mantra. The last two years, the Twins have been tenth of fourteen teams in strikeouts. But they have also been first in walks allowed. This year, they are last in the AL in strikeouts and only eighth best in preventing walks. This has backfired to the point that "pitching to contact" has become the butt of jokes on Twitter.

That "contact" has led to a lot of homers allowed. Four of their five starters have given up over a homer per nine innings. Only Brian Duensing has kept the ball in the yard effectively. The team is tenth of fourteen teams in homers allowed thus far.

The biggest concern the Twins must have is the walks. Of the starters, only Liriano has been really bad in that department. But in the bullpen, walks are rampant. If you add the starters and the relievers together, the staff is giving up 1.453 walks plus hits per innings pitched. That's not a good number at all. To put that into perspective, the entire team is allowing as many base runners per inning as Carl Pavano. And we all know what kind of season Pavano is having.

Is there any hope for the Twins? Sure. When get their injured players back and if Pavano gets on track and Liriano gets on track, they can play a lot better than they are playing now. But the bottom line is that the playoff chances seem remote. It's possible. If the Twins play .600 ball from now until the end of the season, they'd finish with 89 wins. But, there are just too many teams playing well ahead of them and the White Sox are sure to improve as the season goes along. It will be strange if the Twins don't make the playoffs. The Yankees will be sad if they make the playoffs and the Twins don't. But there is a strong possibility that this Twins team will be sitting home a lot earlier than they are used to in October.

Game Picks - Tuesday: May 10, 2011

Imagine if you had this dream that woke you up at 4:30 in the morning: The White Sox were playing the Mariners and scored twenty runs off of Pineda in the first inning. A beanball war ensued and the White Sox lost so many players that they had to forfeit. Isn't that a weird way to start a day? What does that dream say about the 2011 season or this writer's obsession with baseball this season? Crazy.

Last night started with two straight incorrect picks. The Pittsburgh Pirates rode some poor umpiring en route to their first foray above .500 in a mighty long time. And the Tigers jumped on Brandon Morrow and then jumped harder on the Blue Jays' bullpen to the tune of ten total runs. The recent pattern was to get the early games correct and then watch the day crumble with the late games. But the trend reversed last night and the picks went 5-1 the rest of the way with the White Sox win over the Angels the only other blemish. Not bad.

Tuesday brings us back to a full slate of games. What a wonderful thing (unless it gives you nightmares). Here are Tuesday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Royals: While this pick is no ringing endorsement of Freddie Garcia, it is heavily a slap at Kyle Davies.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: The Pirates two games over .500? It could happen with Correia pitching against familiar West Coast. This is a rematch with Ted Lilly that the Pirates won last time.
• The Mariners over the Orioles: Uh oh. Michael Pineda is pitching. That dream! Does it foretell of a Pineda meltdown? Nah. The Mariners ride Pineda's arm for a win over Jake Arrieta.
• The Indians over the Bay Rays: Josh Tomlin is 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA. But he is a home run machine that this writer still doesn't trust. But, he faces Andy Sonnanstine making his first start of the year replacing the injured Niemann. Sonnanstine's career ERA against the Indians? 9.51.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: It's been painful to watch the Blue Jays melt down into nothingness. Several of this writers favorite blogs are written by Toronto writers and their pain is evident. Their boy, Kyle Drabek runs into Jon Lester tonight. More pain ahead.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: Here is the match up that everyone has been waiting for: Roy Halladay versus Josh Johnson. Here's why Halladay always wins: He can finish his own game. Johnson can't because he throws too many pitches. Edge: Halladay.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Jason Marquis has an 8.00 career ERA against the Braves. They match up well against him with all their good right-handed bats. Tim Hudson with the win.
• The Astros over the Reds: The upset pick of the day. Brett Myers comes up big and the Astros get to Homer Bailey.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Rangers are sinking. They are under .500 as their schedule has been brutal. It gets no easier tonight with Colby Lewis facing the tough Brett Anderson.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Carlos Zambrano has been good. But Chris Carpenter is way due for a big performance and a win.
• The Tigers over the Twins: It's weird to say that there is more trust at this point for Rick Porcello than for a guy that just threw a no-hitter. But that's the gist of it. Liriano gets the loss.
• The Rockies over the Mets: Jason Hammel has been seriously good of late. Mike Pelfrey has two quality starts in his last three attempts. But the Rockies win this one.
• The White Sox over the Angels: That dream! [[shiver]] John Danks is 0-5 despite an ERA under five. It's high time he wins. Joel Pineiro has been good since his return from the DL.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: On any given day, Tim Lincecum can beat anyone...even Ian Kennedy.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Brewers over the Padres: That win by Greinke had to boost the Brewers' confidence. Shaun Marcum continues the good vibe with a win at home over Clayton Richard.

Yesterday: 6-3

Week: 16-8

Month: 65-55

Season: 277-238

Games of the Day: 19-21  Rallying!

The Atlanta Braves Are In Good Shape

The Atlanta Braves currently sit in third place in the National League East and they are looking up at the Phillies, the home of the fearsome foursome, and the Marlins, who have two pitchers who can shut you down every time out. That would normally lead to some pessimism. But in this case, the Braves are in good shape because they started badly as a team and are still within striking distance of the wild card and of even the Phillies.

The Braves currently have the best pitching in the National League. The Phillies were vaunted for their pitching, but one of their Fab Four, Roy Oswalt, has not really joined the party. Worley could be a better fifth starter than Joe Blanton, but Blanton is making good money, so if he is healthy, he'll get the starts. The Braves, on the other hand have been rock solid one through five and can match the Phillies rotation game for game. The Phillies don't have near the bullpen the Braves have. If you are a Philly fan, do you hope that Brad Lidge comes back or do you hope against it? Tough call.

The Marlins have good pitching too. Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco can pile up the wins, but their rotation gets dicey after that. The Marlins have a good bullpen that rivals Atlanta's. But if you look at each team's bullpen, the Braves seem the better bet over the long haul.

The reason for Braves' optimism right now lies in the fact that they can pitch like no one this side of the Oakland Athletics AND their offense has underperformed to this point. Only Chipper Jones and Brian McCann have performed as expected. Well, to be honest, McCann's performance is always expected but Chipper Jones has been a nice surprise being able to play as much as he has. If he can play, he'll perform.

Dan Uggla is not going to finish the season with an 81 OPS+ like he has now. Even in his worst years, he's managed to compile a 111 OPS+. Jayson Heyward has seven homers, but you wouldn't expect him to hit .238 over the course of the season. So he hasn't really gotten going yet. Freddie Freeman is a rookie and you can say that you never know how that will turn out. But Freeman looks like he belongs and his 91 OPS+ is sure to improve along with his .228 batting average. And Martin Prado has compiled an OPS+ over 117 for three straight years. You wouldn't figure him to stay at 95 over the course of the season.

So the offense will pick up. They will have to keep their fingers crossed on Chipper's health. The bench besides Ross and Hinske has been suspect or nonexistent. That will have to get better. Or it means that the team lacks depth if injuries occur. But all in all, you have to expect the offense to pick up significantly. They do not appear to be an offensive team that right now sits in the bottom third of the league in effectiveness.

The Marlins and the Braves are one and two respectively in defensive efficiency so far this season (National League according to baseball-reference.com). The Phillies are fifth. But the Braves have a better fielding percentage than the Marlins. Chipper is the only real liability in that defense. The edge again goes to the Braves.

The Marlins have been a surprise. And that's despite a really slow start for Hanley Ramirez. And unless Ramirez turns into the next B. J. Upton, you'd expect for him to start hitting here soon. But Atlanta has the better overall rotation and should have the better bullpen over time. The Marlins have depended too heavily on guys like Emilio Bonifacio, who is performing well now and will come back to bite them. This Fan also thinks that Fredi Gonzalez is a better manager than Edwin Rodriguez and the Braves have a better front office.

The Phillies have the best overall talent in the division, but that margin isn't as wide as some would think. They should improve if Utley can come back and produce, but overall, they don't appear that much better than the Braves on paper. The Braves put a lot of people to sleep with their 12-15 April. But they are 6-1 in May and just won the series up in Philadelphia. Yes, the Braves are in very good shape and this should be an interesting summer in the NL East!

Game Picks - Monday: May 9, 2011

Sunday was a good day. It started as a great day. The picks were 9-0 at the start. But then Johnny Cueto was brilliant in his return and out-dueled a resurgent Ryan Dempster. And then the West Coast was its usual mess. The rest of the picks ended up going 1-5. But still, 10-5 is something to build on and even the Game of the Day came in with a win. Bonus.

There are nine games on Monday's schedule. Many look like puzzlers. Here's how they look:

• The Dodgers over the Pirates: The Pirates are at .500! Isn't that cool? This Fan thinks it is. Except, they won't be after today. Chad Billingsley should beat Jeff Karstens.
• The Blue Jays over the Tigers: What a pitching match up! Brandon Morrow versus Max Scherzer! Morrow will be making his first start since returning from the DL. He won his last time out and looks to be getting stronger. He needs to throw more strikes than last time so he can remain in the game longer. Scherzer has been dominant but is bound to lose some time.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: This one is a stinker. Joe Blanton is coming off the DL and wasn't effective before he went there. Javier Vazquez doesn't have much left besides guile. The Phillies should wrap his guile around the foul pole a few times.
• The Reds over the Astros: Aneury Rodriguez pitched five shutout innings in his first start. The trouble is that the Astros' bullpen is trouble if Rodriguez can't go deep in the game. Travis Wood was better his last time out against this same Astros.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Fan probably worked harder on this game than any in recent memory. Two aces battle it out in Trevor Cahill and C. J. Wilson. Cahill has been brilliant in his career against Texas with a 7-2 lifetime mark with a 2.27 ERA. Wilson pitched against the A's twice last year. Was great once and only so-so the other time. Going with Cahill since the Rangers are scuffling.
• The Brewers over the Padres: Two winless pitchers: Matt Latos versus Zack Greinke. One of them has to win. Thinking it will be Greinke.
• The Rockies over the Mets: Jhoulys Chacin is more Coors proof than Chris Capuano. Capuano's velocity is slightly down from last year and relies on good movement to fool hitters. His ball shouldn't move as much at Coors.
• The Angels over the White Sox: Two enigma pitchers in Edwin Jackson and Ervin Santana. And it's probably because they both have nerdy first names. That's just a theory. The Angels are currently the better team, so going with that.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Red Sox over the Twins: Josh Beckett should get Twins hitters out and the Red Sox line up should feast on Neal Blackburn.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week:  10-5
Month: 59-52
Season: 271-235
Games of the Day: 18-21

Why Is That Shortstop at the Top of the Order?

So why is this shortstop hitting at the top of the batting order? He's only batting .256. His on base percentage is only .310 and he's shown no power. His ISO is sitting at .077. What's he doing at the top of the order? Isn't that stupid? Why does his manager cater to him like that? Shouldn't the manager care more about his team winning than keeping his player happy? He hit into another double-play on Saturday, you say. Don't blame you a bit for your reaction. It is rather silly.

Oh! Did you think that first paragraph was about Derek Jeter? Apologies. No. That paragraph was about Elvis Andrus. Or it could be about Hanley Ramirez, whose ISO is sitting at .078 with an on base percentage of .304.

Again, sorry to disappoint you. It's plain to see that you came here hoping to feast on more of Jeter's hide. The Fan understands. It's the popular thing to do. Let's just sit tight and see how the season plays out, shall we?

Game Picks - Sunday: May 8, 2011

This post is breaking Jethro Gibbs' Rule Number 36: Never post when you're angry. It's late in the basement and bedtime was quite a while ago. But just one game of Hearts before bed was all that was going to be played. But those crummy jerks ganged up three to one and defeated the best Hearts player in the world. As you can tell, this is taken very personal. Those three players are very real to this writer and they work together with the sole purpose of defeating the world's best Hearts player. It doesn't matter which one of them wins. All that matters is that the greatest player doesn't. But skill and smarts eventually won out and ten games later, the master kept his 53 percent win rate despite the dirty cheaters.

By the time the marathon match was over, all the baseball games were over and this game picker was already angry. Going through the scores and comparing them to the picks didn't help the anger pattern already seething inside. It was a day barely over .500. The Game of the Day feature lost AGAIN! How can Jared Weaver lose? How can the Indians keep winning? How can Joe Girardi bring Boone Logan in to start an inning? Why would Yovani Gallardo pick today to finally find his killer form? How could the Fan have picked the Astros and the Mariners? Why, why, why!? [[GACK...CHOKE...SPUTTER]]

Okay.  The temper is under control. Deep breaths have been taken. And here are Sunday's picks because there's no way this picker will be up in time in the morning to write them:

• The Tigers over the Blue Jays: Brad Penny has laughed in this picker's face twice in the last two weeks as the portly partier has had two great outings out of three. He faces Jo-Jo Reyes who couldn't buy a win if he had enough money to buy one more "Jo" in his name. Of course, this whole thing will probably get screwed up by Bautista suddenly showing up to play and hitting three homers off of Penny. Arrgghhh. There goes the temper again.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Speaking of Reyes, Jose Reyes is playing out of his mind right now. The Fan is counting on Clayton Kershaw to come up big and for Ethier to start another hit streak off of R. A. Dickey. But Dickey will probably throw floaters all day and Kemp and company will look like fly swatters. This isn't helping.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Livan, Livan, Livan. Just that name strikes terror into the heart of this picker. What the heck will he do this time out? What the heck will Anibal Sanchez do? He throws one-hitters and then walks the farm. Who the heck knows. The Fan should have gone to bed. The heck with your early picks!
• The Pirates over the Astros: "James McDonald has an arm, EEE Eye EEe Eye Oh." McDonald was terrible to start the season. Now he's great. So which one is it? Golly. "And against the arm is J. A. Happ, EEE Eye EEE Eye Oh...crap."
• The Red Sox over the Twins: And what to do with this game? Pavano has been lit up like Hong Kong's downtown. Matsuzaka was terrible, then he was the best pitcher in baseball and then he was terrible. And that's just this season. Can't get a break here.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Wade Davis has a 2.70 ERA. But if you dig deeper, you find that his fastball has lost velocity and is flatter than a pancake. Then again, he is facing Brazen Brad Bergesen who hasn't won a game and Longoria is back. Cripes!
• The Athletics over the Royals: Another lovely game. Jeff Francis has not been fine to say the least. But he faces a weak offense. Tyler Ross has been terrific but never gets run support. Can we have at least one easy pick in here somewhere?
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Kyle McClellan hasn't lost and looks great every time out. Chris Narveson has given up a billion runs in his last billion innings. But of course, you watch. Narveson will be lights out and this pick will look mighty stupid.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Man! This is awful. Ryan Dempster was in the deepest dumpster to start the season. Then suddenly he had a very good game. But he hardly struck out anyone. Johnny Cueto is making his first start of the year after being on the disabled list and hardly looked pretty in his rehab starts. How do you pick this stuff?
• The Indians over the Angels: The Angels already lost to the Indians with Weaver. Why should we believe that Dan Haren will fare any better? Fausto Carmona with the win.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Even the Padres should hit Joe Saunders. Aaron Harang has been bad of late. Let's hope he rebounds in this game. Well, D-back fans won't be hoping that. Understood.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Jorge de la Rosa has been terrific and Ryan Vogelsong will be out of tune.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: Jimminy Crickets, no breaks at all here. Mark Buehrle can be good or he can be crappy. Erik Bedard pitched his heart out last time and still got a no decision. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
• The Phillies over the Braves: Cole Hamels has been better than Cliff Lee and Jair Jurrjens has been more tricky than powerful in his fine start. The Phillies always seem to find a way.

And the stinking Game of the stinking Day!

• The Yankees over the Rangers: C. C. Sabathia should be his usual fine self. If Ogando starts, it will be a miracle because he has a blister under his nail. Ouch. His replacement will be Dave Bush. Double ouch. But the way this year is going, Bush will throw the game of his life or something.

Yesterday: 8-7
Last Week: 49-47 [eyeroll]
Month: 49-47
Season: 261-230
Games of the Freakin' Day: 17-20

The Day Willie Mays Played Shortstop

Willie Mays turned 80 this week and terrific stories have been written about the great player. His reception in San Francisco was really well done and well deserved. But while others have celebrated the great career of Willie Mays and recounted his exploits over and over, this writer thought he would celebrate the greatest player he ever saw in a different way. This is a story of the craziest game in which Willie Mays ever participated. The game was so crazy that Willie Mays actually played shortstop for three innings. He was 33 years old at the time.

It wasn't Willie's first foray at short. He played shortstop for one inning in 1963. He didn't get any chances in that game and strangely enough, he didn't get any chances in this particular game either. Which was probably just as well. Though we would like to think that if somebody had actually hit the ball to Mays, Willie would have made the play. But everything was strange about this game which took place as the second game of a double-header on May 31, 1964 at Shea Stadium. After playing nine innings the first game, Mays played 23 innings of the second game. Yes, that's right. 23 innings.

The Giants had won the first game behind Juan Marichal's complete game victory. Mays had gone one for three in that game with a walk and a run score. At the start of the second game, Willie was batting .382 with an OPS of 1.260. The Giants were in second place at the time and were only a half a game back of the league leader. They would eventually finish in fourth place despite 90 wins that season. Alvin Dark was the manager. The Mets were in last place, as usual, a place they had never relinquished since coming into the league in 1962. Casey Stengel was still their manager and the Mets "improved" in 1964 from 111 losses the year before to "only" 109 in 1964. But on this day, they played one of the longest games ever.

The second game of the double-header on May 31, 1964 in Shea Stadium started normally enough for Mays. He was in center field where he belonged. The Giants started Bobby Bolin. Bolin was 25 at the time and was a good pitcher for the Giants for many years. He was a swing man who made 23 starts in 1964 but also made 15 relief appearances. That was the way Bolin's career went. Baseball-reference credits him with 50 saves while also compiling 34 complete games in his career. Whatever you needed from Bolin, he would give it to you.

The Mets started Bill Wakefield, a native of Kansas City, MO. 1964 would be Wakefield's only season in the majors, which is surprising because he didn't have a bad season in 1964. He started four games that season and relieved in 58 others and ended with a 3.61 ERA in 119+ innings. Wakefield didn't last long in this game, which was his second start of the season. He pitched two innings and gave up two runs. The Mets had a rally going in the bottom of the second and George Altman pinch hit for Wakefield. Little did Casey Stengel know that he needed every inning out of his pitchers he could get.

By the end of the third inning, the Giants had taken a commanding 6-1 lead and the Mets had gone through two pinch hitters and three pitchers. A fourth pitcher, Al Jackson, was used as a pinch runner in the second inning rally that resulted in the Mets' lone run. Willie had gotten a single in the first inning to drive in a run but grounded out during the big four-run rally the Giants put together in the third inning.

Leading 6-1 would seem like an easy win for the Giants, but the Mets got to Bolin late in the game. Eddie Kranepool drove in a run with a triple and later scored in the Mets' sixth inning off of Bolin and an inning later,  Joe Christopher hit a three-run homer to tie the score at 6-6. 1964 was the only season Joe Christopher saw full-time duty and it was his only good season. He ended up with a 134 OPS+ in 1964.

Meanwhile, Tom Sturdivant and Frank Lary had held the Giants scoreless to allow the Mets to come back and tie the game. Kranepool hit a double after Christopher's home run, but Bob Shaw came in for the Giants to end the threat. Christopher's homer was the last run either team would score for the next fifteen innings!

On the Mets side of things, Larry Bearnarth started the eighth inning and pitched seven scoreless innings. Bearnarth was a nondescript pitcher who pitched parts of five seasons. This was probably the game of his life. Galen Sisco came in to start the 15th inning and pitched eight scoreless innings. For the Giants, Ron Herbal began the ninth inning and pitched four scoreless innings. Herbal was another swing man for the Giants and was a pretty good pitcher for them for several seasons. He gave way to Gaylord Perry.

Gaylord Perry was just 25 years old at the time and in his first full season for the Giants. He too was a swing man that season and made several starts in 1964 but also pitched many times in relief. What the future Hall of Fame pitcher did in this game is legendary. He began his quest in the 13th inning and pitched ten scoreless innings! The only trouble he had was in his first inning of work when the Mets got back to back singles but right fielder, Jesus Alou threw out Amando Samuel trying to go from first to third. That must have made old Casey happy.

And what of Willie Mays? How did he get to shortstop? In the top of the eighth inning, Willie McCovey pinch hit for starting shortstop, Gil Garrido. After McCovey struck out to end the inning, Jim Davenport went in to play shortstop. In the top of the tenth inning, Matty Alou pinch hit for third baseman, Jim Ray Hart. Dark wanted to keep Matty Alou in the game, so he moved Davenport to third to take Hart's spot and he moved Willie to short so Matty Alou could play center. The Giants did have another infielder on the bench but it seems obvious at this point that Dark did not want to lose the offense of Alou, so Willie played short.

As mentioned earlier, Willie Mays played shortstop for three innings. How strange that must have looked! Again, unfortunately for us, he never got a chance to make a play there. Herbal was simply mowing the Mets' batters down and only one single went to left. There is no way of knowing that hit's relation to Mays. In the top of the 13th inning, Cap Peterson (Charles was his given name) pinch hit for Herbal. Peterson was a light-hitting utility player who played parts of seven seasons. He started out as an infielder but was used mostly in the outfield by the Giants.

Peterson lined out and the Giants didn't score in the thirteenth inning. In the bottom of the 13th, Dark did a double move when he brought in Gaylord Perry. Dark put Perry in Harvey Kuenn's spot in the line up. Kuenn had made the last out in the top of the inning and was playing left-field. Peterson stayed in the game and moved to third. Davenport moved back to short. Matty Alou moved to Kuenn's spot in left and Willie Mays went back to familiar territory in center. And that's the way it stayed for ten more innings.

Finally, in the top of the 23rd inning, the Giants finally got to Galen Cisco. It appears that it was Cisco's game no matter what happened. Cisco got the first two outs in that last inning without a problem. But then Davenport hit a triple. The next move is baffling and if this author can question Casey Stengel's thinking all these years later, it does seem strange. Stengel ordered an intentional walk to Cal Peterson. Remember that Peterson was not a good hitter and was batting .158 at the time. Sure, the pitcher's spot was next up, but surely, the Giants would pinch hit for Gaylord. They had to. Plus, there were two outs. Why not go after the weak hitting Peterson? But Casey walked Peterson intentionally to make it first and third.

The Giants did indeed pinch hit for Perry. Del Crandall pinch hit. He was the backup catcher which made this move dangerous for the Giants. Tom Haller had already caught 22 innings! Can you imagine catching for 22 innings? Crandall was 34 years old and toward the end of his career. He was probably one of the last guys on the bench. If the Giants didn't score, Crandall probably would have gone in to catch and a pitcher would have had to play the field.

But that became moot when Crandall lined a rope to right field for a double. That scored Davenport. Jesus Alou then singled to score Peterson. Willie Mays grounded out to end the inning. The Giants finally broke the tie and led 8-6. But they still had to get the Mets out in the bottom of the 23rd.

Haller stayed in at catcher to finish his marathon. Bob Hendley, one of the Giants' starting pitchers, came in to pitch. It was to be his only relief outing of the season. Hendley struck out two of the three Mets' batters and the other popped out to end the game. Hendley today would have been given a save.

The game lasted seven hours and twenty-three minutes. If you include the first game of the double-header, the two teams played a total of nine hours and fifty-two minutes of baseball. Shea Stadium had been packed with over 57,000 fans. They got their money's worth. Willie Mays, Orlando Cepeda and Jesus Alou played every minute of those two games as did Christopher, Kranepool and shortstop, Roy McMillan of the Mets. Galen Cisco got the loss despite his heroic outing and went on to lose 19 games for the Mets that season. The Mets lost both games of the double-header.

As for Willie Mays, he went one for ten in the second game with a walk, a strikeout, a run scored and a run batted in. His averaged started that game at .382 and finished 23 innings later at .364. He should have won the MVP that season as he hit 47 homers and was far and above any other player in the league in WAR. But they didn't know about WAR in 1964. The Cardinals won the pennant and Ken Boyer won the MVP, though his season couldn't be counted even among the worst of seasons Willie Mays ever had.

But imagine if you were sitting in Shea Stadium that day and got to see almost ten hours of one of the greatest players of all time? Imagine being a fan in the stands to watch the greatest center fielder of all time coming in to play shortstop for three innings. That would have been something to see! Happy Birthday, Willie Mays.

Game Picks - Saturday: May 7, 2011

Yesterday featured another fast start followed by the (by now) familiar collapse on picks from the West Coast. The Indians' offense went dormant and lost despite another great outing by Masterson. Ubaldo Jiminez left with a lead, but his bullpen blew the game. But this picker shouldn't complain. After all it was a positive day. It just wasn't the wildly positive day that seemed to be taking shape. The surprises of the day were the Mets beating the Dodgers and the runs that Cliff Lee gave up despite striking out sixteen batters. Derek Lowe might have thrown a no-hitter if he hadn't gotten hurt.

Saturday's games do not look like fun to pick. There is a rookie making his debut. There are other young pitchers who have had various results. There are the enigmas of the Twins and Red Sox. And Bartolo Colon again gives us the question of how long he can keep pitching as well as he has. Let's take a look:

• The Reds over the Cubs: The only question here is if Bronson Arroyo can keep the Cubs in the park after giving up three homers in his last outing. The Reds should hit Casey Coleman.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: Clay Buchholz looked much better in his last outing and while the Twins never seem to lose behind Brian Duensing, you have to go with the Red Sox at home.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Jeremy Guthrie is a lot better pitcher than people give him credit for, but Hellickson can be very good too. Have to go with the Tampa Bay Rays, who simply are the better team.
• The Tigers over the Blue Jays: On paper, this is a good match up between Justin Verlander and Ricky Romero. But Romero was pushed back two days with a strain in his midsection. That's never good. Verlander will be tough. Will Bautista be back for this game? Haven't heard.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Brewers have lost several in a row and the reaction is to want to go with the law of averages that they are bound to win some time. With Yovani Gallardo due to break out of his pitching woes, today would seem like the day. But the Cardinals are rolling and Lohse has been good except for his last start against the Marlins. Torn on this one.
• The Braves over the Phillies: So much is going on in this game. How will Julio Teheran do in his MLB debut? If he can give the Braves five good innings, the Braves' bullpen is good enough to win it. The Phillies go with Kyle Kendrick taking Oswalt's place. Kendrick simply isn't very good plus he hasn't started all year. Won't go long.
• The Astros over the Pirates: Morton has been decent for the Pirates, but Bud Norris has been electric. The Fan never thought he would ever type that last sentence. But it's true.
• The Mets over the Dodgers: Chris Young versus Jon Garland in the battle of the junk-ballers. Young's slop has been more effective than Garland's. How far will Ethier go?
• The Royals over the Athletics: The Royals should bunt about ten times this game as McCarthy can't seem to make the play. Can't give a ringing endorsement to the Royals though as they have to hope Hochevar gives them a decent start. Hosmer gets his first hit today.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: This is the upset pick of the day. Volstad is completely unreliable while Gorzelanny will battle you and keep you in the game. Still waiting for Jayson Werth to have a big game.
• The Yankees over the Rangers: Riding the Colon wave until he proves otherwise. Holland with the loss. The Yankees gave him his only loss of the season.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Daniel Hudson has to have a good first inning to win. Dustin Moseley goes for the Padres. He's been great, but will he get any run support?
• The Giants over the Rockies: Bumgarner is 0-5. Did you ever think that would happen after that World Series? He gets his first win tonight. Emil Rogers started the season great but has fallen apart lately.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: This little voice keeps whispering: "The White Sox aren't this bad. The White Sox aren't this bad." But gee, they keep losing game after game. Doug Fister doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence, but he's not a bad pitcher. Gavin Floyd seems like a good pitcher, but the results aren't there. Ugh! What a hard game to pick! 

And the Game of the Day!

• The Angels over the Indians: Alex White was good in his debut, but it's doubtful he will go beyond five innings. He faces Jared Weaver. Angels win.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 41-40

Month: 41-40

Season: 253-223

Games of the Day: 17-20  Doggone this feature!

New Pitchers Faring Better Than New Batters

On Twitter this morning, a figure was being bandied about concerning how first year batters were faring this season. If this number is remembered correctly, first year batters were batting .172 this season. If memory is also correct, this figure was said to be the lowest in years. This Fan thought it would be fun to reverse the statistics quoted and see how first year pitchers were doing. The overall answer is: Very Good.

First year pitchers (and this doesn't include rookies such as Brandon Beachy who pitched a little last year) have pitched 326.2 innings thus far and have an ERA of 3.50. That's pretty darn solid as a group. Collectively, they are giving up 7.59 hits per inning and are striking out 7.52 batters per nine innings pitched. As you can probably figure, the walks are quite high at 4.25 walks per nine innings, but overall this young group of pitchers is doing quite well and have accumulated a total of 5.3 WAR.

Some of the standouts thus far include Michael Pineda, of course, whose pitching has increased the frenzy of speculation concerning the trade fate of Felix Hernandez. Also included is the Orioles' standout, Zach Britton, who has already accumulated 1.4 WAR and is near the top of MLB in several categories.

Other standouts include relief pitchers, Aaron Crow of the Kansas City Royals, Pedro Beato of the Mets and Al Alburquerque of the Detroit Tigers. Crow has already compiled a WAR of 1.0 in relief! Other first year relievers of note include Joshua Collmenter of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cody Eppley of the Texas Rangers, Joe Paterson of the Diamondbacks and Eduardo Sanchez of the St. Louis Cardinals. Sanchez has been thrust in there as a closer for the Cardinals and it's been adventurous for the youngster, but he has three saves thus far.

A couple of more first year pitchers holding there own are Lance Pendleton of the Yankees, Nathan Adcock of the Royals and Louis Coleman, also of the Royals.

As offense continues to plummet the last couple of years, young hitters struggle and young pitchers seem to have the upper hand. Now that Mr. Hosmer is heading to the Royals' line up, we'll have to see if those offensive numbers get a boost.

As usual, baseball-reference.com and its wonderful Play Index really came in handy for this little search and Microsoft Excel adventure.

Where Did Brandon Beachy Come From?

Brandon Beachy has truly been one of the surprise stories of the 2011 MLB season. He wasn't on anyone's top prospect list. He wasn't drafted. He beat out Mike Minor (who was on top prospect lists) for the job in Spring Training and has since thrown seven starts for the Braves. And he's been terrific! Who the heck is this guy and where did he come from?

If you look at Beachy's Wikipedia page, you'll learn that he played Indiana high school ball with his two brothers and helped take his team to that state's Class AA championship. But he wasn't offered a big time college scholarship and went to a small Indiana college where the biography goes on to say that he played the infield and pitched occasionally. It wasn't enough to get him on anyone's draft radar. Somehow, the Atlanta Braves found him and signed him to a free agent contract in 2008. Nice find, that.

And so this amateur free agent that nobody but the Braves noticed went to their minor league system and rose like a rocket. 2010 became a magical season. He started in the Southern League (Double A) and started a handful of games but pitched mostly in relief. He was fabulous. He got promoted to the International League (Triple A) and all he did there was pitch with a 2.17 ERA with a 9.45 K/1.2 BB ratio. Just two years after he was signed, he made his major league debut.

Beachy made three starts for the Braves after his call up. He lost his only two decisions. His walk rate wasn't what it was in the minors, but he gave up no homers and finished with a 3.00 ERA. Hardly anyone noticed. That was enough, though, for the Braves to invite him to Spring Training where he flat out beat Mike Minor for a job in the rotation. Again, this is a guy who wasn't on anyone's prospect radar. Skeptical was the only word for his expectations.

But here he is now after seven starts to begin the season. His WAR is tied with David Price, Tommy Hanson and Jaime Garcia. That's some pretty good company. His won-loss record continues to be unlucky and he's only 1-1, but his ERA is an impressive 2.98. And if you think that ERA is fluky, his FIP is exactly the same at 2.98 and his xFIP is only slightly higher at 3.19.

All of Beachy's numbers are good. He has struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings, which leads starters on his team. He's walked only 2.3 batters per nine for a very impressive 4.09 strikeout to walk ratio. His WHIP sits at 0.969 and he's been stingy with hits with only 6.4 hits per nine innings. Yes, his BABIP is very low at .245 so he may regress a little bit. But when you are striking out that many people, BABIP isn't as important as if more balls were being hit in play.

Fangraphs' Pitch/FX data shows his fastball to average about 91.8 MPH. That's not blow away fast, but Fangraphs does rate the pitch this year at well above average in effectiveness. His other very good pitch is the slider. He throws the slider 16.6 percent of the time and Fangraphs again rates that pitch as well above average. His change up, which he throws 9.6 percent of the time and his curve ball (9.9 percent) are both given negative scores by Fangraphs. One interesting statistic is that Beachy gets batters to chase 33.4 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. It will be interesting to see if teams start making him throw strikes as the season progresses.

The fifth starter of any rotation is a guy you hope will at least keep his team in the game for a chance to win. Most teams around the league struggle with this rotation spot. But the Braves have a guy who is rated currently among the top pitchers in the league. Brandon Beachy has been a startling story to this point and despite the Braves' somewhat sluggish start this season, gives the team hope that they can remain relevant throughout the season.

Game Picks - Friday: May 6, 2011

The Arizona Diamondbacks pulled out a thrilling win against the Colorado Rockies last night. Gerardo Parra and Chris Young hit solo homers in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the score at two runs apiece. Justin Upton then hit a walk-off single in the eleventh inning to ice the win. The reason this game is mentioned is that if it wasn't for the heroics of these players (or the goats that pitched to them), this picker's day yesterday would have been even more of a disaster than it was. The week and the month of May are both back in the red again. But at least the Game of the Day was finally correct. This exercise has been pretty frustrating the last couple of weeks!

Okay, the knuckles are cracked and this Fan is buckling down. The game face is on. With a steely grunt, here are Friday's picks:

• The Reds over the Cubs: The day starts off with a really tough and interesting pick. Matt Garza, despite his record and ERA, has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season. Edinson Volquez has been maddeningly inconsistent. Here's why the Reds win: The Cubs are not a patient bunch. That helps Volquez more than it helps Garza.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Cliff Lee goes for the Phillies and Derek Lowe for the Braves. Lowe has been better than his record. Cliff Lee is better than his current stats. Going with Philly at home.
• The Astros over the Pirates: Wandy Rodriguez against Paul Maholm. Wandy is one of the best pitchers in the league. The Astros don't have a closer though. So this will be interesting.
• The Orioles over the Bay Rays: Scary pick to make here, but that's how good Zach Britton has been. Shields with the tough luck loss.
• The Blue Jays over the Tigers: The Tigers have been pitching really well of late. But that doesn't include lefty, Phil Coke. Jesse Litcsh seems a lot better than his record and the Blue Jays are at home and can thump.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Hiroki Kuroda should feel right at home in the spacious Citi Field. Jon Niese has been inconsistent. The Dodgers are a little banged up though. Still think they win.
• The Twins over the Red Sox: Scott Baker will either be one of the Fabulous Baker Boys or Home Run Baker. Which one will it be today? Tim Wakefield goes for the Red Sox. This is cruel, but the Twins should bunt a lot as that is Wakefield's biggest nightmare.
• The Yankees over the Rangers: Ivan Nova has to be good for this pick to pan out. Matt Harrison was rolling along this season until the Yankees beat him up last time they faced him. He's struggled ever since.
• The Athletics over the Royals: Gio Gonzalez will be good. The question is the A's offense and whether they can get to Sean O'Sullivan, who has been decent as the fifth starter. He walks too many batters though. The debut of Hosmer, of course, will be this game's wild card.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Randy Wolf has been okay this season, but he faces Jaime Garcia. Garcia has scuffled a bit in his last two starts, but some home cooking should help. Pujols is starting to hit. Look out NL.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs played eleven thrilling innings last night and then had to travel to San Diego after that game. They will be a weary group. Tim Stauffer should beat Galarraga at home.
• The Indians over the Angels: Justin Masterson's record does not appear to be a fluke. He's pitching really well. The Angels counter with Tyler Chatwood, who hasn't embarrassed himself at all this season.
• The Mariners over the White Sox: Felix Hernandez pitches a gem against a struggling White Sox team and wins by two runs over a very good, Philip Humber.
• The Rockies over the Giants: It's time for Ubaldo Jiminez to come up big. He faces the always tough, Matt Cain. If the pitchers equal themselves out, you have to go with the Rockies offense.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Marlins over the Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann has pitched well, but the Nationals can't hit and won't hit against Ricky Nolasco. The Marlins are turning into quite the story this season.

Yesterday: 5-7

Week: 32-34

Month: 32-34

Season: 244-217

Games of the Day: 17-19

Time to Worry Over Chris Carpenter?

Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals has made thirteen starts since the last day of August last year. During that span, his record is 2-6 with 40 earned runs in 82.2 innings of work. That works out to a 4.35 ERA over that span. So far this year, he is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.19. Worse yet, Carpenter had been downright stingy with home runs allowed in 2009 and 2010 but has given up six already this season in 43 innings of work. Should we be worried about this 36 year old pitcher?

Maybe. Or maybe it's time in his career when he can still help the Cardinals and not be the dominant pitcher he was in 2009 or for the first three quarters of the 2010 season. Perhaps it is time to lower expectations a bit. Carpenter did make 35 starts last year with a total of 235 innings pitched. That's a lot for someone who was 35 years old and just two years removed from major injury problems that cost him two years of service in 2007 and 2008. Perhaps his tank got emptied a bit last year towards the end. He certainly seemed to wear down similar to what Tim Hudson, a similar aged pitcher with similar skills, did in Atlanta.

But there are other signs that he's just not in sync yet and has a chance to still be the kind of pitcher the Cardinals expect from their ace. His velocity is a tick below where it was in 2009, but it's slightly above his 2010 averages. Pitch/FX also shows with his heat maps that he is throwing with the same sort of patterns this year as in 2010 and 2009. The only real difference in his charts is a slight dip in horizontal movement in his fastball. His release points look consistent as always.

Part of Carpenter's strategy was to get easy outs by inducing right-handed batters to pull the ball and left-handed batters to hit the ball weakly the other way. In 2009 and 2010, his OPS against in both those situations were very low. Perhaps with less movement on his fastball or perhaps because batters have adjusted, his OPS against in those two situations is dramatically higher. Carpenter may have to make slight adjustments to counter what hitters are doing in those situations.

Carpenter has given up a much higher line drive percentage than in his past. When a stat like that is way off his career norms, you expect it to come around to what he usually does. You would also expect his rate of homers to fly balls come down to his career average over the course of the season. His current homer to fly ball percentage is extreme at 16.2 percent. That's way over his career average of 10.6 percent. In fact, the only year he came close to that high a percentage was 15.5 percent way back in 2004.

One other thing of note: Carpenter throws more change ups than he did in 2009. In 2009, only 1.6 percent of his pitches were change ups. That figure increased to 3.7 percent last year and is at 4.2 percent this year. The pitch seems to be his least effective pitch and it looks like he is getting hurt with the change up this year. It might be a good idea for him to throw less of those going forward.

The bottom line from this Fan's amateur sleuthing through his numbers seems to be that Carpenter hasn't lost his stuff. His velocity is where it was last year. He may need to figure out why there is less movement on his fastball, which may be just a slight mechanical adjustment. His K/9 and BB/9 rates are just fine and consistent with his career. Carpenter just needs to get back to his career norm for homer to fly ball ratio and line drive percentage and he'll be fine. The prediction here is that once the weather improves and he gets into a regular rhythm, he will still have a good season for the Cardinals as long as he stays healthy. No real worries here.

Game Picks - Thursday: May 5, 2011

All in all, it was a positive day. The Braves swept a double-header. The pick was a split. The Boston Red Sox played until 2:45 in the morning and lost to the Angels. They had a chance to win in the 12th inning but had a runner thrown out at home on a wall-ball double. The Cardinals' bullpen let them down again, thus ruining that pick. Arrieta and Davies actually had a pitchers' duel, which was shocking enough and the Orioles came out on top. And the White Sox can't buy a win no matter how many times they are picked here. They now have the worst record in baseball. Who saw that coming? And Scherzer was stellar against the Yankees.

But there were more good picks than bad. Toronto had a good game over the Bay Rays. Lincecum didn't give the Mets anything, nor did Wilson the Mariners. And Cahill was as good as predicted against the Indians to finally give that team a loss. The amount of correct picks brought the week to even and the month as well. But the dang Game of the Day feature is back on a losing streak and several games under .500. Irritating.

Surprisingly, there are twelve games on Thursday's schedule. There hasn't been a single Monday or Thursday yet where hardly anyone played a game. Eight games are day games. You have to love that. But the Red Sox and Angels probably don't after finishing their game just a few hours ago. Pity the poor Angels who have to catch a plane back to the West Coast after the game. Here are the picks for Thursday:

• The Astros over the Reds: If you have followed this feature for a while, you know the Fan hardly ever picks a pitcher coming off the DL to win. Thus picking Brett Myers over the returning Homer Bailey.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: You have to like A. J. Burnett's chances in that big ballpark. So the Yankees win even though Rick Porcello has been very good of late.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Kyle Drabek is a rookie and as such, you can't expect him to win games against the elite teams of the league. He showed that against the Yankees his last time out. Meanwhile, David Price has been somewhat of a mystery this season. Thinking he has a big game today.
• The Giants over the Mets: Sanchez should shut down the Mets while the Giants and their limited offense gets to Pelfrey, who hasn't been very good. Aubrey Huff is starting to hit.
• The Red Sox over the Angels: Expect John Lackey to shut down his former team and for the sleepy Red Sox hitters to muster enough runs over Pineiro. Expect this game to be quick with a wide strike zone for a quick getaway after last night's marathon.
• The Marlins over the Cardinals: The Fan has picked the Cardinals every game so far this series and that hasn't gone well. Today they get to face Josh Johnson, arguably the best arm in the NL. That said, this doesn't come with a ringing endorsement. Such easy picks are never easy. Jake Westbrook hurls for the Cards.
• The Royals over the Orioles: Bruce Chen is steady and should win. Chris Tillman can't keep himself in the game long enough and that puts the game in the Orioles' bullpen. Not good.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Brett Anderson is very, very good. Jeanmar Gomez is not.
• The Braves over the Brewers: Tough game to pick with Brandon Beachy and Shaun Marcum both being very good. The Brewers seem to have gone cold though and the Braves are starting to pick it up.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Another tough game to call. Both Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy have been very good. Look for the D-backs to jump on Hammel in the first inning, which has been a problem for Hammel.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: If you go by the pitchers' ERA against the opposing team, this should be a Ranger win. Colby Lewis had a 1.55 ERA against the Mariners including a 1.18 in Safeco. Vargas has a 4.86 ERA against the Rangers. So the Rangers should win 5-2, no?

And the Game of the Day!

• The Phillies over the Nationals: This one should be an easy pick with Roy Halladay, the beast of the east, matching up with John Lannon.

Yesterday: 16-10
Week: 27-27
Month: 27-27
Season: 239-210
Games of the Day: 16-19  grrr

Thinking About Wade Davis With Concern

There are currently two starting pitchers in the major leagues that have pitched more than twenty innings and have struck out less than four batters per nine innings. Wade Davis is one of them and Dustin Moseley is the other. We've already discussed Moseley in this space. He certainly is a fun story thus far. But what of Wade Davis? Isn't Davis supposed to be a young stud pitcher? Why is he striking out so few batters? Why are only eight percent of his pitches swings and misses?

The first thought was velocity. Has Wade Davis lost velocity? In his last outing against the Twins on April 27, Davis had two swinging strikes all night. His four-seam fastball averaged 90.77 and he topped out at 93.1 MPH (thanks to Brooks Baseball). After looking at Fangraphs' Pitch/FX data, Davis is averaging 90.7 MPH on his fastball. So his last outing was right about his season average. This averages is about 1.7 MPH slower than last year. Please keep in mind that Pitch/FX is not perfect. But these numbers seem to indicate that Davis has lost a little something on his fastball.

Even more of a concern is the movement on his fastball. According to Fangraphs' data, Davis' fastball averaged -3.0 of horizontal movement last year. This year, that figure stands at -1.8. That means that there is 1.2 inches less of break per pitch or translated, a straighter fastball. Doesn't this sound a lot like Phil Hughes?

But Wade Davis is faring a lot better than Phil Hughes did. Davis has won three of his five decisions and is currently sporting a nice 2.77 ERA. Fangraphs is not impressed though and his FIP and xFIP are a lot higher than his actual ERA (3.58 and 5.12 respectively). Davis is certainly benefiting from a low BABIP of .267, but that is not that much lower than his 2010 figure of .272 and isn't far off from his career number. Putting the ball in play with Tampa's slick fielding isn't a bad idea.

Many Wade Davis statistics are in line with his career averages. His ground ball and fly ball percentages are little changed. His walk percentage is little changed. His infield fly ball percentage is up slightly. The real anomalies are the strikeout percentage and his homer to fly ball ratio. The strikeouts we've already talked about except that the number has slipped now in the last two years. In certainly a small sample size, Davis has only given up one homer this year. That's good for a 1.6 percent homer to fly ball percentage. His career average is 8.2 percent. If all other things remain the same, you would expect this percentage to go up over time.

So far, like Dustin Moseley, his cohort in the low strikeout per nine category, Davis is succeeding and having success. This Fan would be concerned for both though as that low a strikeout percentage doesn't seem viable for the quality of pitching that is occurring. Will Davis continue to be this successful? It's possible. But the Bay Rays should be concerned because it doesn't seem likely. And the loss of velocity and movement on his fastball would be a deep concern.