Despite the fact that my favorite announcer ever (Phil Rizzuto) was an ex-ballplayer, one of my biggest pet peaves is the free job ex-players get in broadcasting, on Web sites like Yahoo and ESPN.com and even on local news affiliates. A person should only be allowed one easy, cushy and fun job in their lifetime.

Being a broadcaster has to be one of the coolest jobs on the planet. You get to watch every game for free in good seats. It's the only live way to watch a game and still have instant access to instant replay. You get free ballpark food, get to fly all over the country and stay in the best hotels. Why should someone who has already had a job for eighteen years and has accumulated $15,000,000 while doing so get another great job like that. The rest of us poor slobs should get that chance.

Then think about the antipathy of the announcer who is doing play by play who went to school for broadcasting and spent a lifetime moving up from the bushes and riding buses having a partner who was handed the job because the color guy won 14 games a couple of seasons? It's as bad as all those great post office jobs going to former soldiers so they can spend the rest of their lives behind the counter scowling at people.

Have you read Joe Morgan on ESPN.com or Jack McDowell on sports.yahoo.com? They sound like they are writing 9th grade what-I-did-this-summer numbers. I could write a column better than that. McDowell's great contribution today was that the Yankees acquired the best pitchers so they should win their division. Profound stuff, eh?

Sometimes it works. Bobby Valentine, Harold Reynolds and the former nasty boy from the Reds (whose name escapes me at the moment) do a great job, but it is still Berman or Ravitch and Gammons who bring the show home. Joe Garagiola was one of the best announcers of all time. But I guess the point is that there has to be equally talented color men in other places who have paid their dues and gone to broadcasting school who could do as good a job or better. They should get the chance.

The automatic filling of jobs by ex-ballplayers smacks of cronyism in a world where cronyism isn't allowed anymore. And the cronyism is pervasive. Johnny Miller broadcasts golf, NFL pairings feature ex-players all across the line and basketball has its share as well.

I say forget the ex-jock who has already had their fun and made their money. Let a regular joe compete for the great jobs now taken by washed up semi-superstars.

Are you sure this isn't Friday the 13th? The calendar says it's the 11th, so that doesn't explain how Tiger Woods can shoot a 76 in the Masters and on the same day, the Kansas City Royals become the first team to start the season 8-0 since the World Champion Cincinnati Reds. Oh, and the Pirates won again and the Expos and Mets were playing in Puerto Rico. Strange days, man. Strange days.

So what do you think about these Royals? Is this real or will they slide back down like the liquid wax of a lava lamp? Some guy named Runelvys Hernandez pitched his third great game today and is 3-0. His ERA is 0.46. Jason Grimsley with his gaudy 33-41 career mark with his career 4.75 ERA, pitched a perfect 8th Inning and now has a relief ERA of 1.80. Mike MacDougal posted his sixth straight save in as many chances. As Butch says to Sundance in the movie, "Who are these guys?"

It's not exactly like these Royals are spanking the baseball in their 8-0 start. Their best player, Mike Sweeney is batting .240. Their leadoff hitter, Michael Tucker, is batting .176. Ugh! They have a former shortstop playing Right Field (Desi Relaford) and is batting .167. Can you imagine if they were hitting too? They have five pitchers with an ERA under two runs per nine innings. They are just playing great.

For years I wondered why the Boston Red Sox would keep catching Tony Pena during some good years in the early 90's. I mean, I watched a lot of those games and the guy couldn't hit himself out of a paper bag. But I do remember him coming out to the mound and having this look on his face like he was in charge and that pitcher better listen up. He was the man whether he could hit or not. Now he is managing this Royals team and has them believing that this isn't a fluke and I believe him.

For you cynics out there, yes, the Royals did get fat on the Tigers and the rebuilding Indians and have the rebuilding Indians for another four more games. But still, you do have to win those games and do so often or you are not going to play in October. The Royals played bad teams in the past and they were always worse. It is to their credit that they are now beating up on those teams.

In the reverse direction are those Detroit Tigers. They have started the season 0-9. Ugh! They could lose 110 to 120 games this season. The entire coaching staff is from the Tigers glory days. Trammell manages and I imagine his head will be asked for soon.

The ineptness of the Tigers is unbelievable. In their first eight games, the team is batting .140. The TEAM is batting .140. They have scored 14 runs in 8 games. They only have two hitters on the whole TEAM with a batting average over .200! Oh my.

At the same time, the Tigers team ERA is 5.31 runs per nine innings. And if you think it's just hitting and fielding, how about this stat: The Tiger pitching staff has given up 88 runs in 83 Innings but only 48 of them have been earned. But it isn't the amount of errors that the team is making as they have only made four errors in eight games but they must have been REALLY bad errors if the four errors resulted in 40 unearned runs! Holy smokes!

I know. I know. It's early yet. But it's still fun to see what is happening around the league. The Royals look like contenders and the Tigers look like they will not win any games this year.

Hello baseball bloggers. The Flagrant Fan takes Thursdays off as his day of rest. See you tomorrow night.

I have never liked Greg Maddux though I have respected his results. The Yankees are hated as a team and people around the country hate Steinbrenner, but they don't hate the bulk of the Yankee players (except Clemens). I am trying to judge if I am biased and I don't think so. There is something about Maddux and Chipper Jones that just seems arrogant. I don't know if it's the set of their faces when they succeed or what. Something they do brings out those feelings in me.

But as much as I loathe Maddux, his terrible start this year has been stunning. His stats the first three games (all losses) are unbelievable: 14.2 innings, 29 hits (29!!), 24 runs (18 earned), 6 homers, 9 walks and 14 strikeouts. Well, at least the strikeouts look good. The NL--before tonights blowout--was batting .347 against him. Highlights of his last game showed a really slow pitcher whose pitches seemed to be hanging on the plate like they were sitting on a tee. I have to wonder if this is a mechanics problem that he will eventually fix, or if this is indeed the end of a remarkable Hall of Fame run.

As long as we are discussing pitching, here is some other news around the majors:
- Mark Prior of the Cubs is the real deal. His two game ERA is under 1 as he got his first shutout today walking none in nine innings and striking out 12. Those are early Clemens like numbers.
- The Yankee starters look as good at the start of this year as they looked bad at the end of last year. Clemens should waltz to 300 wins.
- Mark MacDougal, the Royals new closer has yet to give up a hit while striking out 4 in his three successful save attempts. He throws 100mph!
- Brown and Dreifort look like they are back for the Dodgers. Drefort won tonight. That is bad news for the NL West.
- Pedro Martinez looks fantastic and should win 20 games again with a low ERA. Don't be surprised if he wins another Cy Young.
- AJ Burnett has had two great starts with the Marlins and this could be the year that he arrives on the scene.
- After a stupid injury, Pittsburgh's Benson looks poised to be the ace he was predicted to be. Two brilliant starts.
- The experiment with Kim starting in Arizona instead of closing has had a real bumpy 0-2 start.
- Arizona's pitching is going to be severely tested as the Diamondbacks are not going to score runs for them.
- Despite hopes, Texas Ranger pitching just doesn't look very good. Valdez was lit up tonight and Park has been lit up twice.
- Barry Zito has looked great. Mark Mulder has not.

Ah...it's baseball season and the stats are starting to pile up. What a great time of year.

I've been studying Barry Bonds the last couple of years because I really wanted to dislike the man. The mere fact that I tried so hard to dislike him wasn't like me and I wondered what caused it. Was it because he was a very confident African American when I am white and because he broke the wonderful record of 70 homeruns that was set a few years before by a heroic white man? That was a possibility and because of that possibility, I really had to study myself because that's not the person I want to be.

But wait. Mohammed Ali was one of the most confident African Americans who ever lived and he was an absolute hero of mine. But maybe that was because I didn't get to see him until he was stripped of his crown and became the underdog the rest of his career. He was Mohammed moving the mountain. The difference was that Ali had a certain charm that got beyond his arrogance. You had to smile at him as he was so out there.

Bonds is a confident African American who doesn't overflow with charm and wit and doesn't seem to care what we all think of him. Bonds presence in our consciousness has increased since his historic season. He has been seen on dozens of interviews and when you listen to him speak, the term arrogance is misplaced. Arrogance is when you have talent that few others have and you throw it in the face of your foe. Bonds is just straight-forward and factual about his talent. He doesn't make false statements about his talent when it is so obviously there. He accepts his talent matter of factly as a given and that's refreshing.

I was also really impressed with how he learns from a player like David Eckstein. Bonds mentions how Eckstein put tears in Bonds' eyes for how hard he competes and how well he uses the little talent that he has. He also mentions that he learned a technique in Eckstein's swing that Bonds thinks will help him be quicker. Bonds learned that technique so well that he hit ten homeruns in Spring Training.

I was also moved by how Bonds always seems to mention his family and his father and Willie Mays and how important these people are to him. How can you hate a guy who has his priorities in the right place?

What is true is that Bonds has had two of the most amazing seasons in baseball history. 73 homeruns followed by a .370 average and 48 more homeruns. His on base percentage and slugging were record breaking. We are seeing a talent at his peak unlike any talent in our lifetime. He is the best at what he does and is the Michael Jordan of MLB. The Giants had no business being in the World Series last year. They just didn't have the talent that the other teams had. Give Baker a large credit for that, but Bonds single-handedly dragged that team into the World Series.

Another major knock on Bonds is the kind of teammate he is. Oh please. Michael Jordan shot fifty percent of the Bulls shots for the six years they won the NBA Championships. How popular do you think he was with his teammates? Not only was he the top scorer, the one with all the publicity, the one who shot the most, but also the one that made the most money who also happened to think he was the assistant coach. Yup, he sure must have been popular with his teammates.

Bonds wants to win. Bonds knows matter of factly that he is the best player on the field and it galls him that he hasn't won a World Series. I have opened my eyes and viewed him with an open mind and I respect what he's done. I admire and ride along with history as it's being made. And he has a great smile and gives a great and honest interview. You won me over, Barry, and what makes me laugh saying that is that you really couldn't give a rip if you win us over or not.

Yesterday marked the thirtieth anniversary of the designated hitter and the debate has been continuous ever since Ron Blomberg got that hit. To most of you, Ron Blomberg is a trivia question. To me, he was a smile of remembrance as I watched him play and I saw that hit. Ron Blomberg is as good an argument as any for the designated hitter.

Ron Blomberg had just about the quickest swing I've ever seen. He never took a little swing. The swing started in an arc behind him and then whooshed through the zone and after full extension, swooshed back behind him just as quickly until he had to sit on the upright bat to steady himself. And he was a paradox in so many ways. He was Jewish with a southern accent. He was grace and ferocity when batting but uncouth and awkward with a glove. He was also one of the fastest players I've seen down the first base line. He beat out quite a few hits that surprised the infielders of his day. The designated hitter was the perfect vehicle so that Blomberg could bat and run and not have to field.

In Blomberg's two years of designated hitting, he had 565 at bats, 181 hits, 22 homeruns and 105 RBI...not a bad season. And those stats were with miserable teams. The year before 1973, when the DH began, Blomberg made 13 errors at first base in just 95 games. It's pretty hard to make 13 errors in a whole season at first base. It was almost comical...unless you were a Yankee pitcher or infielder at the time. But again, the paradox: he was a power hitter who walked more in his career than he struck out.

The anger of Blomberg's swing and his great speed did not make it conducive for a long career. He was limited to just 105 at bats in 1975, missed all of 1976 and then had a brief stay with the Cubs in 1976 before calling it quits. He ended up with a .293 lifetime average and was a career .473 slugger. Not bad!

As a fan, I was glad that the DH was invoked as it gave us two extra years of Ron Blomberg when there was little else to cheer for at the time. And as a fan, how can you not think back over the last thirty years and not think of some of the great hitters who never would have survived in MLB without the DH. Orlando Cepeda, Tony Oliva and many great players extended their careers and our ability to enjoy their careers because of the DH.

But the argument comes down to which system produces a better game. Again, the DH presents a better game for the following reasons:
- Good pitchers get to stay in the game longer so we get less mediocre pitching
- Has anyone ever paid to see a pitcher hit? But many have paid to see Oliva hit.
- With the pitcher hitting 9th, the 8th hitter is rendered just as ineffective as he is either pitched around or has to reach for bad pitches.
- Bringing in relief pitchers doesn't mean the demeaning act of calling in another player off the field.
- 9 good hitters is better than 7 good hitters, an emaciated hitter and a terrible hitter.
- Is the bunt play ever exciting?
- AL pitchers strikeout stats are not bloated by 4 free strikeouts a game.

And to prove my point once and for all...has any NL manager refused to use the DH when they had the chance in the World Series? I don't think so. I do agree that it's silly to have two leagues with different rules. But that's also a charm. But I think that if you keep a two league, two rule viability, then get rid of the switching back and forth in the World Series. Just make it all DH and be done with it!

The DH has been a part of baseball for thirty years. That's almost as much tradition as not, correct? It's good for the fans, good for the players and good for those poor pitchers who have to look silly every time they go to the plate.

When I was in High School, I took printing for three years instead of wood shop or mechanics. My prize piece of work was a giant baseball scorecard complete with a large action picture of Ron Blomberg crossing home plate. It was a picture my print shop teacher stated I could never duplicate on the lithographic printer. Proving him wrong was a part of Blomberg's magic in my fandom and I'm glad the DH was started for him to give me so many smiles.

* Oh man...I came back from an important party last night and turned on ESPN and for the first ten minutes, I couldn't get any news other than the babble going on about the Final Four. I mean, who cares about the Final Four! And if there is anything more annoying than Dick Vitale's enthusiasm, I don't know what it is. Anyway, the scrolling news is going on below and I hate watching that. Am I the only one who does? It takes forever and if you look away, you miss the one game you were looking for and have to go through the entire thing again...which is another reason to hurry up and get the NBA and NHL schedules over. Enough already. I'm getting to the point--I promise.

So I'm reading that annoying scrolling news (I missed the Yankee score twice going through) and then I see the devastating news: "Ken Griffey dislocates shoulder - out indefinitely." How very sad. The man has missed most of the last two seasons. His time as one of the greatest players of all time is running out. He works incredibly hard to make it back and seems poised for a monster season: a season to put Cincinnati critics and boo-birds to shame. And then it happens: he runs, he dives, he hyperextends himself and is on the ground in a heap of pain. It's terribly sad for him, for his team and for us as fans.

The loss for us fans is not too dissimilar to the Beatles breaking up or Elvis going into the army. At the height of talent's capability and career, the talent is gone and we are robbed of something exciting that can't be replaced by anything else. Who knows, perhaps Griffey can come back one more time and be brilliant again. But the chances become slimmer and slimmer each time he gets hurt. Those that doubt how talented this man is and the treasure his talent is to baseball isn't a true fan at all.



* The Flagrant Fan is finding it hard not to smile at the Braves early tough start. With Maddux struggling (he looked like he was throwing up balloons last night), and no Glavine and Millwood behind him, the Braves are in serious trouble and could finish last in this division.

* The other team in as much trouble is the Diamondbacks. I don't understand how the team's batting could be worse and you wonder how their GM let it happen. This used to be a great and balanced team. It looks old and feeble at this point.

* This time changing is for the birds. They should "spring ahead" the time on a weekday when we want those work days to go faster. To have one of our few days off to go faster is depressing! Plus, there are no games on today until ESPN's night game. How did that happen? Well at least the time change brings us faster to ESPN's Sunday version of Baseball Tonight at 7. It's a great version of the show since there is usually only one night game on Sundays and you get a lot of highlights and insight.

* Speaking of Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravich is that show. The show suffers tremendously when he is not anchoring the cast. Gammons and Harold Reynolds are the best with Ravich, but at least when they are not there, you still have good quality (I hated Valentine as a player, manager and now as a commentator). But you lose Ravich and it's vanilla. When the Chris Berman steps in though, it's magic as there is no better highlight guy in history.

The Royals are winning again. That's a story in the making that feels good. But even better than the script could write it, David Cone started for the Mets tonight against the Expos and pitched five shutout innings, giving up only three hits and struck out five. On top of that, he had his first Major League hit in years and went one for one. Remember, David Cone did not pitch last year for anyone. Remember that he is forty years old! He came to the Mets camp and no one gave him much of a chance to make the team. He was their best pitcher all Spring and made the club. Then in the feel great story of the day, the old man pitched five scoreless innings. Congratulations, Mr. Cone, on your welcome back night to the majors where you have shined and showed class and toughness for many, many years.


The American League West is a very difficult division to call. You only have four teams that are going to slug it out with each other day after day. That will make it difficult for one of the teams to continue winning the wildcard as they did last year. The A's don't look a whole lot improved as a team as their hitting is less effective while their pitching is probably more effective. The Angels have something intangible and much has been made of their spirit. But will Washburn hold up as spirit doesn't throw the ball. Lackey was lackluster (was that clever or what?) in his first start. Seattle has to be considered but everything has to fall into place for them to contend and much the same thing can be said for the Rangers who do look better. I think this will be a four team race for at least half the season and then one of the teams will pull away after the Allstar break.

The Oakland Athletics have to be considered the favorites in the division and so I will agree and state that it's their division to lose. Their pitching is unbelievable and reminds me of the Mets in the Seaver/Koosman glory days of power pitchers who could throw strikes and knew how to win. (Koosman should be in the Hall of Fame by the way.) I don't think the A's will hit like A's teams in the past and although Tejada and Chavez are two of the best players in the league, I don't believe the Longs, Gants, Menechinos of the world will get much done. The A's are vulnerable this year more so than last. I also think their relief pitching is much weaker as Foulke is a step down from the past two years.

Leaders
Homeruns: Chavez with 39
RBI and average: Tejada with 135 and .316
Surprise player of the year: Ted Lilly, who will win 17 games
Wins: Tim Hudson with 24
Saves: Foulke with 32 and 15 blown saves

The California Angels just want to make believers out of you. They don't look like they have enough talent to win it all and yet they did. Their pitching doesn't look strong enough, but it was. Somehow, their character overcomes their ability level and makes anything possible. Darin Erstad is one of those players whose fearless play limits his ability to physically perform. But if he is healthy, he could reverse two years on the down side of a remarkable year when he had 240 hits. 240 hits! If he has 210 hits and comes close to his guady average of a couple of years ago, this team becomes all that more dangerous. Tim Salmon seems to have resumed his career just when it appeared dead. He's another one who could have a big year and change things. Glaus will be super as always but can you imagine how he would do if he learned the strike zone and cut down on his strikeouts?

Homeruns: Glaus with 42
RBI: Garrett Anderson with 132
Average: Darin Erstad at .325
Surprise player of the year: Brad Fullmer
Wins: Ramon Ortiz with 18
Saves: Troy Percival with 42

The Texas Rangers have a new manager. They have a healthy and committed Juan Gonzalez, young stars in Blalock and Teixeira, an old reliable in Palmeiro, an improved bullpen (don't let today sway you) and what appears to be a productive Carl Everett. If they could get hot, this team could be dangerous! Oh yeah, and they have the best player in the game at shortstop.

Homeruns: Juan Gonzalez with 42
RBI: Gonzalez with 125
Average: Alex Rodriguez at .348
Surprise player of the year: Hank Blalock
Wins: Ismael Valdez with 17
Saves: Ugie Urbina with 46 (why did the Red Sox dump him!)

How can I pick the Seahawks last? How can I pick a team with Ichiro and Olerud and Edgar Martinez? Probably because their pitching hasn't gotten much better and they haven't really improved themselves at all. In fact they are weaker at catcher and third base. Winn was a nice pickup, especially now that he can shine away from Tampa Bay. Who knows, they could still contend, but I think their pitching and age will collapse them after the AllStar Break.

Homeruns: Bret Boone with 27
RBI: Olerud with 102
Average: Ichiro at .325
Surprise player of the year: Gil Meche
Wins: Gil Meche with 20
Saves: Sasaki with 24 (he'll breakdown and Nelson will have to take over)


And now I must celebrate because Sammy Sosa just hit his 500th homerun. What a great tribute to hard work and a will to succeed. He hit most of those homeruns with no one to protect him in the lineup. He's one of the best players of our time. Sammy Sosa is in the 500 club. Congratulations!

Just a quick post to remind folks that Thursday is the Flagrant Fan's day of rest. In the meantime, you can ponder the Kansas City Royals and the Pittsburgh Pirates both at 3-0 in the young season. What is most distressing for Chicago fans is the way that White Sox bullpen fell apart today at the end of their game with the Royals.

And the new Yankee shortstop, Erick Almonte, looked super in his first game with the team. One of the ESPN.com writers wrote an article on him a couple of weeks ago as one of the best prospects nobody knew.

Have a great night and we'll talk to you tomorrow!

Isn't the beginning of a new season always such a great thing? At what other time of the year could a 2-0 Kansas City Royals ball club give you optimism and smiles? As Jeff Bradley says so eloquently: "There's hope in every blank scorecard, every freshly dragged infield, every & Ah, just enjoy watching CF Carlos Beltran run down fly balls and swipe bases for another year. (Well, at least until July.)" (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=kan)

Hope is still in the air for a lot of teams and a lot of fans. The Royals and the Twins sit atop the American League Central. Just a year ago, they were trying to bury the Twins. They won the division last year! They will win the division again this year. The Royals start isn't really a fluke. They have a funky, quirky and pretty talented team. They also have a great attitude and that is half the battle in baseball and in life.

I would be a pretty antsy White Sox fan at the moment and that antsy-ness is going to get worse because I don't think the Chisox have it this year. The pitching isn't there and I don't think the chemistry is there. The Indians are rebuilding and won't win 80 games this season and the Tigers are still a real mess. The Twins could win 110 games this season playing all those games against this competition. What makes the Twins so strong?

It starts with the system Tom Kelly started and Ron Gardenhire administers. They are the best prepared, most fundamentally sound team in MLB. They play hard and take advantage of the BaggyDome when most teams would moan and cry about that miserable place. And it doesn't hurt to have great young talent.

At each position is a player who can hit and field and possibly their best hitting outfielder can't get a regular gig. They have potential superstars in center, behind the plate, at third and in left. It's a great team with few flaws as even the pitching is solid. Here are some personal predictions:

Homeruns: Torii Hunter with 34
RBI and Average: Jacque Jones with 109 and .324
Surprise player of the year: Michael Cuddyer
Wins: Joe Mays with 22
Saves: Everyday Eddie with 45

Who comes in second in this division? I don't think it's the White Sox. Okay, let's go for the Royals with 75 wins. Yes, I'm serious. But here me out...they are going to come in second with a record of 75-87. Get it? Mike MacDougal may be the rookie of the year with more than 40 saves. Cheer up Royals fans, you have a little team to watch this season!

Team Triple Crown: Mike Sweeney...a true superstar
Surprise player of the year (other than MacDougal): Raul Ibanez
Wins: Runelvys Hernandez with 16
Saves: Mike MacDougal with 40

The White Sox should finish in third with 70 wins. On paper, they look good, but paper doesn't swing the bat and this always looks like a non-committed team. As for pitching, there is a new slogan: "Colon and Buehrle and then score often and early."

Homeruns: Magglio Ordonez with 39
RBI: Frank Thomas with 110
Average: Paul Konerko
Surprise player of the year: Josh Paul
Wins: Bartolo Colon with 18
Saves: Billy Koch of the 100+ MPH fastball with 36

The Cleveland Indians are rebuilding and doing the right thing. They are playing all their young players and within a few years, look out people.

Homeruns: Matt Lawton with 26
RBI: Ellis Burks with 89
Average and surprise player of the year: Travis Hafner
Wins: C.C. Sabathia with 18
Save: Danys Baez with 30

The Tigers are just miserable. I think they will stay in more games because of Trammell but that's the best I can say. How they have been allowed to have the worst teams AND not restore themselves in the minors is hard to fathom. It's going to be a long road.

Homeruns: Carlos Pena with 29
RBI: Bobby Higginson with 92
Average: Dmitri Young
Surprise player of the year: Any one that can hit over .270
Wins: Steve Sparks? At least I know who he is.
Saves: Franklyn German with 28

Thank goodness it's finally April except that for those of us in the frozen tundra that is Northern Maine, we still have too much snow on the ground and overnight lows in the single digits. At least we can watch baseball being played in places that at least look like Spring and Summer. Speaking of snow, did you see the snow in the Baltimore/Cleveland game? And the game wasn't even in Cleveland! It was wild. "Baseball Tonight" which is god's gift to baseball fans, showed a clip from the game and the amazing thing was how long it took the umpires to notice that nobody could see the ball!

The Jeter injury is as devasting as I thought. He is history for at least six or more weeks and will have a long process of healing after that. There is doubt that he can ever be the same player he has been. It's such a shame because he was going to have a big season. I truly believe that he was not himself last year and that he never let on that his health wasn't right. Watching the games, he never looked comfortable and I think he was hurt all year. The injury still angers me and it isn't because he is on my favorite team. If Griffey was the guy that the idiot catcher crushed, I would have been just as angry. The catcher simply destroyed Jeter and should be fined and/or suspended. I saw the sickening replay a hundred times last night and it's not as if Huckabee tripped and fell into Jeter. He launched his legs into Jeter AFTER Jeter had already reached the bag. Dive in with your glove and I have no problem. Dive into a player with your knees and you're going to hurt someone. I repeat boys and girls, it was NOT a clean play.

Okay...calming myself down...my heartrate is back near resting...I'll now return to Fearless Flagrant Fan mode and start my American League predictions with the AL East.

I wrote a post a week or so ago about the Red Sox looking strong and challenging the Yankees. Jeter going down makes that prediction look better, but watching the Red Sox bullpen last night and tonight changes my mind. After watching Urbina look strong for the Rangers on Sunday night, I couldn't help wonder why they didn't keep him. The guy looked lights out while no one on the Red Sox bullpen by committee can come in and strike someone out. All of the Red Sox relievers are finesse types and I don't think that will get it done. It looks as bad as the Ranger's bullpen last year. And now the Rangers have the Red Sox pen. Go figure.

The Yankees have question marks. Can Matsui do half of what he did in Japan? Will Clemens, et al, hold up? Will the bullpen hold on until Rivera comes back (they've looked great so far)? I hope they give Almonte a shot instead of spending more money on filler until Jeter is ready. Almonte is exciting. In either case, the Yankees are going to hit but Jeter out of the lineup weakens it considerably. I think Soriano suffers the most because he doesn't have Jeter behind him. The Yankees could win the division with 90 wins.

Homeruns: Soriano with 43
RBI: Giambi with 134
Average: Bernie Williams
Surprise player of the year: Nick Johnson (it's time to see what the potential tag is all about)
Wins: Pettitte with 22 (a breakout year)
Saves: Tie Rivera and Osuna with 24 each

The Red Sox will need to abandon their bullpen by committee immediately and find someone who can do the job. If they can do that, then the Yankees could still be in trouble because this team is going to crush the ball all year. Nomar and Manny are back all the way, Hillenbrand is better and Millar was a perfect addition. The best roster move was Todd Walker who will hit near or over .300 and give them some extra fire in the lineup. His fielding isn't spectacular but he can't be worse than Offerman! Ortiz can mash as can Mueller. This team will lead the league in runs scored. Damon starts them off perfectly and if he has a good year, the rest will fall in place. The staring pitching is mostly excellent but oh...that bullpen. Oy!

Homeruns and RBI: Manny Ramirez with 54 and 145 in an MVP year
Average: Nomar Garciaparra with .348
Surprise player of the year: It still could be Chad Fox
Wins: Pedro with 23
Saves: Wakefield?? with 22??

Tampa Bay Devil Rays will come in third only because the Blue Jays look like they are starting the season sleepwalking and Baltimore just won't do much this year. Don't under estimate Lou Piniella as manager as he makes a huge difference. And I really hope that Baldelli breaks in with wide brush strokes. Go Rocco!

Homeruns: Travis Lee with 36
RBI: Ben Grieve with 96
Average: Carl Crawford at .298
Surprise player of the year: Jim Parque
Wins: Jim Parque with 16
Saves: Lance Carter? with 22

The Orioles will sneak past the Blue Jays as the Blue Jays look dead. The Orioles are rebuilding and seem better than last year. I think Jay Gibbons is a future star. Conine is solid as is Surhoff who is back home. They will lose 90 games but there might be a glimmer of hope here.

Homeruns and RBI: Jay Gibbons with 31 and 94
Average: Marty Cordova
Surprise player of the year: B.J. Ryan
Wins: Omar Daal (he better at that price)
Saves: B.J. Ryan with 34

Maybe it's just my perception and maybe the Yankees are that good, but the Blue Jays looked like they were asleep the last two games. Stewart is the best player nobody knows but he must be falling inside in a place that never grows. Delgado is the same thing as his numbers are declining from year to year. I remember a couple of years ago when you couldn't throw anything by him. Now everything hits off his fists. It's a long season and it may turn around but I see 100 losses this year.

Homeruns and RBI: Delgado with 35 and 110 (ho hum numbers that should be better)
Average: Shannon Stewart at .309
Surprise player of the year: Frank Catalanotto who is a good pickup as a role player
Wins: Roy Halliday with 18
Saves: Kelvim Escobar with 25 (with his usual 12 blown or so)

The Red Sox are still an enigma. They could make this an interesting year and contend strongly. Or they could watch their bullpen blow 30 saves and wallow away the season just above .500. The Yankee experience is just as up in the air. I don't see either team advancing far in the playoffs should they get that far.

What a day in baseball. Glavine, Maddux, Randy Johnson all rocked. Pedro and Clemens strong. And then the soul of the Yankees, Derek Jeter gets crushed by Huckabee, the catcher of the Blue Jays. I was amazed at how little recrimination was directed to Huckabee. Either it was a tremendously dirty play (as it looked to me) or it was a tremendously stupid play by an oaf of a catcher who has no body awareness and no awareness of where he is on the field. The announcers kept talking about how it was a clean play. Excuse me but I've been watching baseball for 40+ years and I've never seen a player totally wipe out another player like that. It was disgraceful. I only hope that Jeter isn't as seriously hurt as it appeared.

Well what else did today show around the majors? It's only one game, but I look brilliant with my Cubs predictions. I'll let you look at them to see what I mean. I know. I know. There are 161 games left.

Tonight, I'll finish off the National League by some prognostications concerning that division.

I really think the Dodgers will win the division. First, the Giants lineup looks weaker to me with no one scary enough to protect Bonds even a little bit. Bonds could walk 200 times this year! In contrast, the Dodgers look balanced and poised to go over the top. Brown is back as is Dreifort and Ishii. And Nomo wins opening night with a four hitter! With Gagne in the bullpen along with Mota and Perez, it's hard to pick against this team. And although their lineup isn't as awesome as others, it seems solid and should score enough to give their pitching something to work with. Hundley was a good pickup as was McGriff.

Homeruns: Shawn Green with 46
RBI and Average: Adrian Beltre who will also be the surprise player of the year for this team.
Wins: Brown with 17
Saves: Gagne with 40

The Giants should come in second simply due to the force of Bond's personality and Felipe Alou's character. But the team is mostly smoke and now Nen is hurting. They have some good pitching with Moss being a good pickup to go with Rueter and Jason Schmidt.

Other than Bonds who should have another big year, J. T. Snow should have a great comeback season. He's been spooked by the new park in San Fran, but he's stronger and he'll be a force.

Homeruns, RBI and Average: A true triple crown candidate every year. His numbers? .350 55 124
Surprise of the year: Snow who will hit .300, hit 25 homers and drive in 100.
Wins: Tie Rueter and Moss with 16
Saves: Nen with 24

I don't see the Diamondbacks coming in higher than third. Sure, they have the potential for great pitching. But their pitching is old and who knows what could happen. But the age factor really comes to play in their lineup. Grace is 38, Williams is 37, Finley is 38, Gonzalez is 35. I just don't see them coming in any higher than 10th in runs scored. They are running on fumes.

Homeruns: Gonzalez with 32
RBI: Spivey with 94
Average: Danny Bautista
Surprise player of the year: Spivey
Wins: Schilling with 24
Saves: Mantai who throws serious gas with 36

I don't ever see the Colorado Rockies contending as long as they have that funky home/away mind game. They have finally figured out that you need flamethrowers and they have some. Again, there will be some fun games of 14 to 12 but that translates to fourth place and maybe fifth.

Home runs: Todd Helton with 42
RBI: Preston Wilson with 118
Average: Larry Walker with .375
Wins: Elarton with 11 wins?
Saves: Jimenez with 28

The Padres are interesting and they might be better than the Rockies. They have so many question marks in young players and they could be great and they could be awful. I think they'll be awful one more year. But you have to like the only team in baseball with a player as old as the Flagrant Fan!

Homeruns and RBI: Ryan Klesko with 29 and 110
Average: Sean Burroughs with a breakout year
Surprise player of the year: Rondell White who is not healthy.
Wins: Oliver Perez with 12?
Saves: Villefuerte (who?) with 29 to be a nice surprise.

Some variables that could affect the order listed above:
Will Adam Eaton regain his status as one of the great young pitchers in the game?
Can Alfonso protect Bonds enough for Barry to get some hacks?
How much will the lost of Dusty Baker affect the Giants?
Will the injury prone Dodgers stay healthy and have a big year?
Can Randy and Kurt pull off another big year together and get Arizona in the show again?
Can Kim make the transition to starting pitching?

Again... one hundred and sixty one games from now, we'll know.

The Flagrant Fan is getting excited. We are 90 minutes in front of the opening game of the 2003 MLB season. Yesss! How will this season turn out? To continue yesterday's post, the Fearless Flagrant Fan will take a look at the National League Central. The division looks to be the most difficult one to predict. Anything can happen but here are my guesses:

Dusty Baker is the intangible that will propel the Cubbies to the top of the division. They have talent. But they also have holes just like every team in this division. So Dusty is the difference but Chicago's favorite team won't win more than 92 games.

The pitching staff has two young horses in Prior and Wood. But unless others step up in the rotation, it may be Wood and Prior and put out the fire. Arizona prooved that if you can get to the playoffs, having two dominant pitchers can do you the rest. Like every team, I'll also predict the team leaders:

Homeruns and RBI: Sammy Sosa who will have a monster year (the last of his career?) with more than 60 homers and 130 RBI
Average: Moises Alou who comes all the way back from last year's injuries
Surprise player of the year: Corey Patterson who becomes a star this year.
Wins: Kerry Wood with 18
Saves: Veres (who springboards over Alfonseca who is injured) with 29

The Cincinnati Reds are going to do some thumping this year. Griffey will win comeback player of the year and hit fifty homers. Dunn will continue his climb to stardom and Kearns may be the best of them all. Branyon can still crush and watch this Felipe Lopez who may end Barry Larkin's long reign at shortstop. Pitching is key here and I just don't see enough.

Homeruns: Griffey with 52
RBI: Adam Dunn with 126
Average: Austin Kearns
Surprise player of the year: Sean Casey is injury free for the first time in three years and will have a great year
Wins: Ryan Dempster with 17
Saves: Scott Williamson with 34

The St Louis Cardinals are dangerous enough to win the division but a lot has to fall in place...too much. Will Drew come back from injury to recreate the can't miss prospect status? Will Edmonds stay healthy? They do have potentially the best pitching and that one fact could put them ahead of the others.

Homeruns RBI Average and MVP: Albert Pujols who is one of the best hitters of our time.
Surprise player of the year: Scott Rolens, who finally settles down and has a great season.
Wins: Matt Morris with 24
Saves: Doesn't look good here...Jeff Fassaro? with 18?

The Houston Astros have the biggest hearts but age and long term injuries are catching up to their nucleus of stars. Bagwell's shoulder will never be the same. Biggio was an adequate second baseman who will be a less than adequate center fielder. Hmm... Thank goodness for their starting pitching and for Lance Berkman

Homeruns: Lance Berkman with 42
RBI: Jeff Kent with 118
Average: Jeff Bagwell who can hit to the opposite field better this year.
Wins: Wade Miller with 23
Saves: Billy Wagner with 31
Surprise of the year: Bruce Chen who comes back from the dead to win 14 games

The Pirates have pitching that could take them farther than expected, but those with the bats seem to be an odd collection of spare parts: Reggie Sanders, Pokey Reese, Kevin Young, Kenny Lofton and Matt Stairs. Puhleeze. But Brian Giles is a fiery superstar and could push that collection farther than they should go. Look for Benson to have a break out year.

Homeruns: Brian Giles with 43
RBI, Average, and surprise of the year: Jason Kendell who is healthy for the first time in years.
Wins: Tie: Kris Benson and Josh Fogg with 16 each.
Saves: Mike Williams with 37

And finally, the Milwaukee Brewers, ugh! This poor team doesn't have a chance and the only tension will be whether or not they can avoid 100 losses or not. Bad, bad team...

Homeruns: Richie Sexton with 38
RBI: Sexton again with 104
Average: Oh...let's go with Vander Wal for lack of anyone else who could hit .300
Surprise player of the year: Geoff Jenkins who has shown flashes of brilliance but keeps getting hurt.
Wins: Glendon Rusch with 14
Saves: Mike DeJean with 22 and 12 blown saves...

Variables that could change the above predictions:
Which team starts hot and gains the confidence to take it to the top?
Which team has the better interleague schedule?
Do the Astros reach inside and go for one more shot before they have nothing left?
Will the Cubs' young pitching blossom or fall victim to injury?
Can Sammy Sosa continue the most bombastic run of seasons in Major League history?
Can the Cardinals pitching stay healthy enough to make them the best team?
Can Griffey truly have the comeback season he and baseball really deserves?

Tomorrow begins the 162 game journey to the answers.

MLB is preparing for opening day as teams are making final roster moves, stadiums are getting fresh coats of paint and baseball fans everywhere welcome another official end to winter and hope eternal for Spring.

The Flagrant Fan will become the Fearless Flagrant Fan and begin four days of predictions. I'll start with the National League East and work my way around the six divisions. So here goes and the nice thing about archives is that at the end of the season, we'll all be able to see how I did:

The toughest division to pick is the National League East. Here is a division of parity with what seems to be mediocre teams. Although the Phillies picked up Thome and have a decent three men in their rotation (Padilla, Millwood and Wolf) they will need help from a Mercado or others. They have a solid lineup except for a true leadoff hitter (Rollins still glories for those 12 homers a year). But the Phillies do look stronger than Atlanta and I will pick them to dethrone the longtime division champs. Here's how I see the teams leaders:

Homeruns: Thome
RBI and Average: Burrell
Surprise of the year: Ricky Ledee
Wins: Millwood with 18
Saves: Mesa with 35

The Braves basically kissed their stay at the top with the passing of Tom Glavine. It was the competition that pushed the Braves pitchers to the top and no pitchers pushed each other like Maddux and Glavine. The Braves staff is just not the same and Maddux has looked mortal in the last year and a half. The Braves lineup looks really ordinary. I still see the Braves strong enough for second place but only with a record a bit above .500.

Homeruns and RBI: Castilla (surprise!)
Average: Andruw Jones
Surprise of the year: Vinnie Castilla
Wins: Maddux with 17
Saves: Smoltz with 50 The Braves would be considerably stronger if Smoltz went back to starting.

The Expos will finish slightly over .500 but will suffer from the no-home field effects. Frank Robinson will have the team ready to play but they just lack the talent to make it beyond third place.

Homeruns RBI and Average: Vlad Guerrero
Surprise of the year: Tomo Ohka
Wins: Tie - Ohka and Vazquez with 16
Saves: Joey Eischen with 19

The Mets will fire everyone after coming in fourth. The Mets just don't have any luck with chemistry and they always seem to put awkward teams together. Glavine will falter away from Atlanta, Piazza continues his average slide (just like Johnny Bench!) and Mo just ain't No Mo. Will the real Robbie Alomar please stand up?

Homeruns: Cliff Floyd
Average: Roberto Alomar
RBI: Piazza
Surprise player of the year: Ty Wigginton
Wins: Al Leiter with 17
Saves: Benitez with 30

Alas, the Marlins could finish last again, but if the stars aligned just right, they could go all the way. They are that kind of odd team. They have great arms and a few good players but they have to gel and they have to have a strong start and put a lot of early wins together.

Homeruns: Juan Encarnacion with 38
RBI: Encarnacion with 110
Average: Ivan Rodriguez
Surprise player of the year: Derrek Lee and Encarnacion
Wins: Josh Beckett with 15
Saves: who knows...Spooneybarger with 20?

Here are some intangibles that could affect the outcome:
Will Larry Bowa keep his team playing for him?
Will Mike Hampton find himself again after his Colorado meltdown?
Will the Mets settle down now that Valentine is out of the way?
Can the Marlins overcome the brutal surroundings in which they play to win?
Will Roberto Alomar and Jeremy Burnitz restore their careers?
Will Maddux have any more great years in him? I bet he does.
Will Andruw Jones finally put together his Triple Crown type talents?
Is Mike Piazza still capable of .330, 35, 110?

That's the great thing about the game. We'll all find out starting Monday.

One reader's reaction to my "Parity" post the other day was to comment that a salary cap would be best for parity much as it has worked for the NFL. The NFL has obtained parity with the system and once powerful teams such as the Rams and the Ravens came back to earth. But although forced parity has the advantage of forcing different teams to the top from year to year, it really dilutes the experience for the fan in a couple of different ways.

The first way that "forced parity" dilutes the fan's experience is that each city's fans must adopt new players to cheer for each year. Teams can only keep about five or six top players and the rest rotate on to other teams. So between trades, free agency, retirements, cuts and the draft, as much as 70% of each team may be new from year to year. It's hard to build up any loyalty that way.

The second way that the salary cap dilutes the fan's experience is related to the first. Two years ago, the Rams were one of the most talented teams in football history and one of the most fun to watch. Their only problem all year was to run into the destiny team of the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They had three great receivers who knew the system, a great running back, a very good tight end, a great defense and a good kicking game. Teams with that much talent are fun to watch. But you can only pay for a few superstars and so have to deal some. Now you have two great receivers and a great running back, but a lot of the others that made all that tick have had to leave.

Another example is the Buffalo Bills having to dump Peerless Price this year. The combination of Price and Moulds was fantastic. Now you have to dump one because Blesoe and Mould's salaries.

So...no...I'm not interested in that kind of parity for baseball. Besides, again, I don't think it's necessary. Someday I'll do a study of all MLB teams over 20 years old and see if I can truly identify a pattern or cycle of success and failure. Just about every team I can think about has had one.

I will concede that the lower payroll teams have a similar problem to teams in the NFL in that they can only keep their superstars for so long. The A's have shipped away Giambi and will soon ship away Tejada simply because they could not afford for a $40 million payroll to have half of that payroll taken by one player. But at least for those teams that develop players and build a good team, the free agency and arbitration rules mean that a Minnesota Twins can keep a young and great group together for a few years before having to let players go.


Next topic: The Schedule.
A few years ago, it was popular to bash the schedule because teams back then didn't face their division rivals more than a few series a year. Now they have "fixed" the schedules so that teams play dozens of games against division rivals. It's great for the Giants to have that many games with the Dodgers or for the Red Sox to have that many games with the Yankees. But then you have to have Twins team play the Tigers and Royals scads of times. Not only is that boring somewhat for the fans but it inflates the Twins success rate and unfairly places them in the race for best record and home field advantage in the playoffs. You then have the winner of a really strong division like the National League Midwest having only 92 wins because all the teams in that division are strong.

Another unfair situation develops with interleague play. The Flagrant Fan does not like interleague play. It's unnatural and it seems more of a circus and exhibition than real games. I'm sure we'll discuss this more when that part of the season begins. But the point is that the outcome of a season may be a result of how tough one team's interleague schedule was compared to their rivals. I seriously believe that the Red Sox chances last year were eroded by having to face Atlanta and Arizona back to back in interleague play.

It is amazing to me that in this computer age, we can't do better with the schedule to do the best humanly possible to create a schedule as fair and unbiased as possible.

Just a quick reminder that Thursdays are the Flagrant Fan's day off. I will say that I was pleasantly surprised to see that the Texas Rangers decided to keep Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira on the team. Rookies are fun and you never know who the next great player is going to be. Of course, there is always a person who gets bad news so that someone else can get the good news. Herbert Perry got hurt to open the door for Teixeira.

In another big surprise, Shane Reynolds was waived by the Astros. The former 19 game winner is sure to catch on with somebody quickly and will probably flourish outside of that little Houston band box. The Mets would be a good fit for him.

I'll have a full preview of opening day and make my predictions over the weekend so stay tuned.

As the last few days dwindle down to the end of the season, the always interesting transaction wire becomes really fascinating. In the last few desperate days, you can see players trying to hold on to their careers either catch on or fall off the gravy train. It has to be the worst thing about baseball to work all Spring long to earn a job and then in the final last days lose the job you've been trying to gain. There must be a mad scramble to find another slot...a fit somewhere that needs your niche skills or to be blunt has no other options better than you.

So it was for Lou Merloni this week. Nomar Garciaparra's best friend and the Mayor of Boston slipped out of the Red Sox plans and was released. Can you imagine the circuit of emotions as he finds out about his release yesterday and today find out that San Diego picked him up as they had no one else at the moment better than he to fill that infield utility spot.

Let's take a quick look around to see who else is trying to hang on and what their status is:

Frank Castillo was released by the Red Sox today. Castillo has won 11 or more games five times in his ten year career. Two years ago, he was 10-5 (3.59) for Toronto. Last year, he was a very useful 10-9. He'll catch on somewhere.

Brian Dauback and Estaban Loaiza caught on with the White Sox. Dauback played the last few years with the Red Sox after a long minor league career. He is a good player but not exceptional who can hit 20 homers a year for you playing part time. Loaiza has won 60 games in 7 years and is at best a .500 pitcher.

Mike Venafro lost his bid to make the Braves. A lefthanded specialist who has averaged 70 appearances a year will find a job somewhere.

The Cardinals released Joey Hamilton. Wow. A few years ago he was a large free agent bust for the Blue Jays after he had two great seasons in San Diego. The poor Blue Jays paid him millions to win 9 games over two seasons.

The Padres sent veteran Charles Nagy to the minors. I'm sure that if they didn't waive him, they have plans for him in the future. Can you imagine after having won fifteen or more games for the Indians five straight years from 1994 to 1999 to have to bide your time in the minors until you can become useful again in the majors? Man, it's got to be tough.

Pat Mahomes was released by the Pirates. That can't be a shock for him as he has bounced around pretty good for nine years. To show you how long a mediocre pitcher can last in MLB, Mahomes has a career 5.57 ERA over his nine big league seasons. Let's put that in perspective: In 654 big league innings, Mahomes has given up 405 earned runs. But three years ago, the Mets caught a flash and he went 8-0 for them, mostly in long relief with a 3.68 ERA. I would not be surprised if he got another shot by somebody.

And finally, Steve Avery was sent to the minors by the Detroit Tigers. Again, at least he wasn't waived. How many remember that when the Atlanta Braves started this eleven year run of mastery over their division, that the starting pitchers consisted of Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Steve Avery? And he won 18 games for them twice! He has sure bounced around since then and has been out of MLB for the past two years. How sad that the 1991 NLCS Most Valuable Player can't even make the Tigers opening day roster.

One more bit of news that made my heart sink: Mariano Rivera is starting the year on the DL. Man. Not a good start for the Flagrant Fan's team.

Parity. The problem with MLB is the lack of parity. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The Yankees can go out and get whatever they need while the A's and Pirates are doomed to scrounge around the bottom because they can't afford payroll.

The above paragraph could have been the first paragraph forty years ago in The Sporting News. There has never been parity in MLB. There have always been teams that have consistently fed off the bottom of the standings. The only difference now is the amount of money involved.

But from my perspective, success is a cyclical thing. I can remember when the Cleveland Indians came in tenth place in a ten team American League every single year. This was after a cycle that led them to the great team of the 50's. Eventually, the cycle turned around in the 90's and now they are on the down side again.

The Twins have risen to the top and then a decade of failure and now they rise again. The A's of Catfish Hunter and Rollie Fingers rule the world until Charlie Finley crashed them. They had many, many years of bad times and now have won 300 games in three years. The Phillies have won world championships and have been trough sippers. The same goes for the Pirates.

Let's discuss the Yankees. They have the best market. Yes. They have the most money. Yes. But that does not guarantee success. In the sixties, CBS purchased the Yankees. At that time, how many media companies had more money than CBS? Instead, they ran the team into the ground and from 1965 to 1976, the Yankees were pathetic. During the Munson/Jackson/Billy Martin years, the team hit the top again. Once again, the team hits a long dry spell that lasts until the current five year run.

How would you improve parity in baseball? The draft? Talent means little until it is fulfilled in the major leagues. There are as many first round busts as there are success stories. In fact, there are more busts. Having a good draft is dependent on having good scouting. Scouting is only dependent on the riches of a team to a degree. The rest is dependent on the talent of your scouts. How do you measure that. Why is Oakland terrific at developing young players and Baltimore not? Baltimore has more money, right? It's not about money. It's about systems and personnel and luck.

You already have what results in a tax to the teams that have large payrolls. But do you ever see the payroll on the poorer teams improve any? No. The owners of those poorer teams do not put that money into their system and players. And payroll is no guarantee of success. Recent Mets, Devil Rays, Orioles and Red Sox teams have proven that.

The only true way to think about parity is to really consider who purchases teams. There should be a real emphasis on the viabiltiy of a company or person who wants to buy a team. But how do you do that without error? Four years ago, was there any indication that the juggernaut called AOL would hit such perilous times after (but not because) of buying the Atlanta Braves? You couldn't have predicted that. Who would have known that Enron was going to crash and burn before they put a name on Houston's stadium? Where would the Astros be if Enron had bought the team and not just the rights to the stadium's name?

Lack of parity has always been a part of the game. For every New York Yankees, there's always been a Boston Braves. The Tigers and Royals will rise again. Their cycle will come. There are George Bretts out there somewhere. Somewhere in America (or Japan or Korea or The Dominican Republic) is the next Mickey Lolich and Alan Trammell. The Yankees' down cycle is due as is the Braves'. A surprise team like the Angels isn't really a surprise. It's happened dozens of times in the history of this great national sport.

In my last post, I discussed how good the Red Sox look this year. Though not as strong as the Red Sox, their National League equivalent, the Cubs, have the right manager, a young powerful pitching staff and just enough offense to be dangerous. Could you imagine a double miracle of the Cubbies and the Red Sox in the World Series? The only problem with that miracle is that one of the teams would have to lose and continue their almost status in history.

Dusty Baker is the X-Factor in Chicago. He took a San Francisco team that had one of the unhealthiest duos in history in Kent and Bonds and made it work through his professionalism, his ability to get his players to believe in their chances and get it done...sometimes with mirrors. He is the manager the Cubs haven't had and has the winning tradition that will overcome the negativity that has reigned in Chicago for so long. He will make a difference.

Let's start with Pitching: Kerry Woods and Mark Prior. Man, some franchises never develop a talant as good as one of that pair and they have two of them. The nice thing about the two young talents is that they will push each other. Who is going to be the king of the hill. The Braves have had that competition for a long time and it worked for them. Of Maddox, Glavine and Smoltz, Smoltz had the best arm, but the three of them were a dynamic that stretched each other out to the limit of their talents. Two horses like Woods and Prior can do that too.

But that's not all they have. Clement can be very good. Estes is much better than his horrible season last year. And they have two other young guns in Juan Cruz and Carlos Zambrano. Their bullpen is very deep: Veres, Farnsworth, Remlinger, Benes, Alfonseca and Guthrie have all been there and can do that.

The outfield of Alou, Patterson and Sosa is weak defensively (except in center where Patterson might lose 20 pounds covering for the other two) but should be great offensively. Alou was hurt early last year and it really wasn't until the second half where he was his old self. The only problem here is that they really don't have anyone behind Sosa that can protect him. Bellhorn, Karros (yeah, as if) and others will have to step it up.

Looking at the Cubs on paper, they don't look like much except for pitching. But we'll see what happens.

One of my colleagues at work thought I was overly concerned with bashing the Red Sox in a recent posting. This co-worker thought that concentrating on the Red Sox failures at player personnel was a low blow. When he sees this column, he will think that I am trying to win back his respect. Despite that misguided notion, that Red Sox look incredibly good this year.

Although I have always been and will always be a Yankee fan, I have lived in New England now for twenty-seven years. All of those years featured local newspapers and local TV and radio that lived and died by the Red Sox. For all of those years, I have had access to most of the team's games either through Channel 38 when I was in New Hampshire, or with NESN since I have had cable in Maine.

That's a long time to watch a team and I have seen some really good ones. The year that Lynn and Rice both came up was a brilliant season. Lynn was incredible and Rice was solid and would be a great player for many years. Together with Calton Fisk, they were a catalyst that propelled the team to great success.

The Yaz years were okay but he was such an unlikeable person that you hoped he would choke in those situations when he did. I also got to watch the great Louie Tiant who was the most creative pitcher I've ever seen. Dwight Evans was the best right fielder I have ever seen and if it wasn't for the strike shortened year when he was the hottest player in baseball, he might have become a bigger star that he was.

Then came the Roger Clemens years. Those of you who have been reading this column might think I have a bit of a Clemens obsession. Face it people, I have gotten to see first hand eighteen brilliant season. Even when he was with the Blue Jays, I could watch the games on Canadian TV. His year in 1986 was similar to Ron Guidry's year in 1978. He was just an unstoppable force. The thing I remember most about both pitchers' great years was that they both were considered power pitchers but they both had the greatest control I've ever seen. They simply put the ball where they wanted it each and every time. Please see my Guidry/Koufax comparison at the end of this posting.

The 1986 Red Sox should have won the World Series and sometime soon I will devote an entire post to why Bill Buckner has been given the worst rap since Shoeless Joe Jackson. The '86 Red Sox were better than the 75 Red Sox who almost beat the great Reds in the World Series. But in both cases, I really didn't think the teams were that impressive coming out of the gate. They had a few superstars but weren't deep. They just meshed and played well.

The current Red Sox team is "Yo Mama" deep and talented. Nomar is finally over his wrist woes. Manny looks focused and in the best shape of his career. Shea Hillenbrand has shortened his stroke and improved (and might not even be the best third baseman on the team! - look for Youklas to come on strong). Bill Mueller has been great and should be terrific. Kevin Millar is going to hit thirty homers and knock in over 100 RBI. Ortiz is a good pickup. Damon is solid and a great leadoff hitter. Todd Walker was a terrific pickup and the best second baseman they've had offensively since Marty Barrett. Giambi could do some damage and someday Trot Nixon might put together a career that lives up to his potential coming up.

I think their pitching looks solid both starting and in the bullpen (although I am not sure about the closing by committee idea). Pedro Martinez looks like Hulk Hogan compared to the string bean he looked like in the past. Lowe is terrific and could have been the Cy Young last year. Knuckleballer Wakefield is probably the most valuable pitcher in baseball and the pickup of Ramiro Mendoza from the Yankees was both a coup for the Red Sox and a DOH! for the Yankees.

The Yankees look good but their old pitchers need to stay healthy. If they falter, the Red Sox could pass them and this year, I don't think they would fade at the end of the year. This could be the year, Red Sox Nation. And if so, I'll cheer them on.

But I'll cheer harder if it's the Yankees at the end...


Ron Guidry should be in the Hall of Fame. That is, he should be if Sandy Koufax is. "Wow!" you say as if I had lost my mind. Well, yes, I concur that Koufax had five of the most dominating years in the history of baseball, but for a career (the measure used in the Hall of Fame), Guidry is right there with him. Koufax had a career record of 165 wins with 87 losses, a .655 winning percentage. Super! Okay, Ron Guidry had a career record of 170 wins and 91 losses. That's a .651 career winning percentage--only .004 points behind Koufax.

Arguably the best Sandy Koufax year was when he went 25-5 with a 1.88 ERA. Guidry's best year was one of the best of all time at 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA. Koufax had three 20 win seasons and five seasons of more than 15 wins. Guidry had three 20 win seasons and six seasons of more than 15 wins. Koufax lifetime ERA was .50 points lower than Guidry's (2.76 vs 3.29) but if you compare the ERA to the league ERAs of each's era, they would be right close together.

Like Sandy Koufax, Ron Guidry had class and made the most out of his smallish frame. Both only flamed for a little while but while they did, they were super lights out good. Put Guidry in the Hall of Fame!