While we saw a startling contrast in climates during the two championship series games, both games turned on fielding plays. The Phillies wasted a stunningly beautiful performance by Pedro Martinez as the Dodgers rallied for two runs on good bunting, good eyes and a fielding gaffe by Chase Utley. Meanwhile, over in the Bronx, Sabathia was fantastic and the Angels played like they all had frostbite, committing three errors and missing an infield pop up that wasn't credited as an error.
First off, let the Fan state how disappointed he was that major league baseball players wimped out by wearing earflaps on their caps and ski masks. Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar and Robinson Cano looked more like they were going for a sleigh ride than they were playing in a baseball game. Tom Hanks once said that there is no crying in baseball. Well, he would also say there are no hoodies in baseball. Geez. That was pathetic.
But while Cano made some acrobatic plays at second for the Yankees (no way Soriano would have made those plays), Figgins and Aybar played like they were trolls frozen by the morning sunlight. They stood as stone figures while Hideki Matsui's innocent pop up landed between them allowing Johnny Damon to score a run. Damon was on second after singling to left because Juan Rivera couldn't figure out where to throw the ball, so he threw it in between everything.
Nobody should blame Chase Utley for those two bad double play throws in the last two games. Both times, the feeding infielders bobbled the ball and threw Utley's timing off. The errant throw from Utley in Game 2 went into the dugout and allowed the tying run to score for the Dodgers. But it wasn't Utley's fault that four Philadelphia relievers decided to walk the winning run around the bases.
The Phillies-Dodgers game featured two remarkable pitching performances. Vincente Padilla proved the Fan wrong and made Joe Torre look like a genius. Padilla was fantastic with a 95 MPH fastball that had all kinds of late movement. He pounded the strike zone and only allowed a homer to Howard on an ill-advised breaking ball that just hung up there too long. Other than that, he was buck. Pedro Martinez was even better. The Dodgers had no clue what to expect and what to do with Martinez's offerings. It was a masterful performance and a real throwback to the greatness of Pedro Martinez. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Manuel took him out after the seventh and allowed the Dodgers to get back in the game.
Sabathia also pounded the strike zone for the Yankees, striking out seven and walking one in eight innings. The only run off of him was on a bloops single. Mariano Rivera added to his post season legacy with the save in the ninth.
The Dodgers absolutely needed the win to tie the series. The Yankees needed to start off with a win at home. Missions accomplished.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Friday, October 16, 2009
They Shot the Sherrill
But they also shot the debutante. The Phillies used seven walks between newcomer, George Sherrill, and the young Clayton Kershaw to set up two 3-run homers to sink the Dodgers' hopes of starting the series off on a positive note. The 8-6 victory hands back home field advantage to the Phillies.
Kershaw was sailing along after four scoreless innings. Then he imploded in the fifth with the Dodgers holding a 1-0 lead on a homer by James Loney (after the Fan said he didn't have enough power to play first). Kershaw's fifth inning: Single, wild pitch, walk, homer, walk (the pitcher!), fielder's choice, wild pitch, strike out, wild pitch, walk, double and done for the day.
As bad and as disappointing as Kershaw's day was, it didn't hurt nearly as bad as George Sherrill's contribution to the night. The Dodgers clawed back on Hamels to make it a 5-4 game, which, with the Phillies' bullpen, is not a bad place to be. True to form, the Dodgers would score two more against Madson, which would have been enough. But Sherrill, who had to this point been brilliant for the Dodgers since coming over from the Orioles, walked the first two batters he faced and then coughed up a three-run homer of his own to Jason Werth. Seven walks against the Phillies is going to hurt you and six of the seven batters that walked, scored.
So now the Dodgers have to hope that Vincente Padilla has one more good game in him. Baseball fans have been waiting for Padilla to return to his normal form and the Dodgers have to hope that it isn't going to happen on Friday. The Phillies are taking a gamble of their own by starting Pedro Martinez who hasn't thrown a meaningful post season inning since the 2004 World Series. Somehow, it feels more comforting to pitch an aging version of the toughest pitcher of his generation than Blanton or Happ or any of the Phillies' other starters. To this Fan, it feels more possible for Martinez to summon up his old magic than for Padilla to keep up his own unfathomable magic in two months with the Dodgers.
Kershaw was sailing along after four scoreless innings. Then he imploded in the fifth with the Dodgers holding a 1-0 lead on a homer by James Loney (after the Fan said he didn't have enough power to play first). Kershaw's fifth inning: Single, wild pitch, walk, homer, walk (the pitcher!), fielder's choice, wild pitch, strike out, wild pitch, walk, double and done for the day.
As bad and as disappointing as Kershaw's day was, it didn't hurt nearly as bad as George Sherrill's contribution to the night. The Dodgers clawed back on Hamels to make it a 5-4 game, which, with the Phillies' bullpen, is not a bad place to be. True to form, the Dodgers would score two more against Madson, which would have been enough. But Sherrill, who had to this point been brilliant for the Dodgers since coming over from the Orioles, walked the first two batters he faced and then coughed up a three-run homer of his own to Jason Werth. Seven walks against the Phillies is going to hurt you and six of the seven batters that walked, scored.
So now the Dodgers have to hope that Vincente Padilla has one more good game in him. Baseball fans have been waiting for Padilla to return to his normal form and the Dodgers have to hope that it isn't going to happen on Friday. The Phillies are taking a gamble of their own by starting Pedro Martinez who hasn't thrown a meaningful post season inning since the 2004 World Series. Somehow, it feels more comforting to pitch an aging version of the toughest pitcher of his generation than Blanton or Happ or any of the Phillies' other starters. To this Fan, it feels more possible for Martinez to summon up his old magic than for Padilla to keep up his own unfathomable magic in two months with the Dodgers.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Phillies and Dodgers - 2009 NLCS Preview
The best lineup in the National League squares up against the best pitching staff in the National League for the right to go to the World Series. The series starts tonight at 8:07 Eastern Time, 5:07 Pacific Time. It will be Cole Hamels versus Clayton Kershaw. The Phillies are the reigning champions and the Dodgers are led by Joe Torre, who has won more championships than anyone in the last thirteen years. On the surface of things, this should be an intriguing and see-saw series. Let's break it down a bit.
The Dodgers open the series with Clayton Kershaw. The kid is 21 years old. Can you remember the last time a kid that age was the opening pitcher of a series like this one? The Fan can. His name was Dwight Gooden on the 1986 Mets. That team went on to win the World Series. But Dwight Gooden already had 58 wins in his career, which is incredible when you think about it. Gooden was a strikeout pitcher who walked very few batters. Kershaw is a strikeout pitcher who walks a lot of batters. Gooden and Kershaw's ERAs at the age of 21 are strikingly similar however and there is one big benefit Kershaw has: He pitches left-handed.
The Phillies big hitters are pretty much all lefties. Howard, Victorino, Utley and Ubanez, but before you get excited about that, note that the Phillies had a slightly higher OPS against lefties than they did against righties. But those Phillies strike out a lot, which plays right into Kershaw's hand if he can throw strikes early in the count. Howard, Ibanez, Werth and Utley struck out 571 times this season. That's a lot of strikeouts.
Add all that up and throw Cole Hamel into the mix, who was so good in last season's post season, and you have a first game that seems to be a wash. If Kershaw is on top of his game, the Dodgers could win easily, especially if they get to Hamel. If Kershaw is shaky in the strike zone, it could go the Phillies' way.
The second game would pit Chad Billingsley against Cliff Lee. Lee is a difficult guy to predict. He can be absolutely brilliant and at times he can be killed. Fortunately for the Phillies, the former has happened a lot more than the latter. But the possibility is still out there, especially if you can get to Lee early. If he gets in a groove, you're pretty much done.
Billingsley is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. He didn't pitch like that much during the home stretch. And Torre hasn't announced his rotation yet for the post season. Billingsley didn't start against the Cardinals when Torre went with Wolf, Kershaw and Padilla. But any of those four match up well with Lee in this Fan's opinion. The Fan would go with Billingsley on talent alone, but Torre likes to go with the hot hand, so we'll see.
But then you get to Game 3 and there are no pitchers among Pedro, Blanton, et al, that would seem to match up with whoever is left of Padilla, Wolf and Billingsley. It would seem that the Phillies best hope would be to steal the first two games, which doesn't seem possible. If the Dodgers seemed to have no trouble with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamel and Cliff Lee don't appear to be close to those two Cardinal pitchers.
It will be interesting, but this series seems to favor the Dodgers. Unlike last year, they have home field advantage. Unlike last year, they have a top notch bullpen. Their core young players have a year more experience. They are the better fielding team. They have Sherrill this year who can shut down the big lefties in the ninth if Torre wants to go that route.
The Fan just doesn't see the Phillies repeating. But the old cliche still stands: That's why they play the games.
The Dodgers open the series with Clayton Kershaw. The kid is 21 years old. Can you remember the last time a kid that age was the opening pitcher of a series like this one? The Fan can. His name was Dwight Gooden on the 1986 Mets. That team went on to win the World Series. But Dwight Gooden already had 58 wins in his career, which is incredible when you think about it. Gooden was a strikeout pitcher who walked very few batters. Kershaw is a strikeout pitcher who walks a lot of batters. Gooden and Kershaw's ERAs at the age of 21 are strikingly similar however and there is one big benefit Kershaw has: He pitches left-handed.
The Phillies big hitters are pretty much all lefties. Howard, Victorino, Utley and Ubanez, but before you get excited about that, note that the Phillies had a slightly higher OPS against lefties than they did against righties. But those Phillies strike out a lot, which plays right into Kershaw's hand if he can throw strikes early in the count. Howard, Ibanez, Werth and Utley struck out 571 times this season. That's a lot of strikeouts.
Add all that up and throw Cole Hamel into the mix, who was so good in last season's post season, and you have a first game that seems to be a wash. If Kershaw is on top of his game, the Dodgers could win easily, especially if they get to Hamel. If Kershaw is shaky in the strike zone, it could go the Phillies' way.
The second game would pit Chad Billingsley against Cliff Lee. Lee is a difficult guy to predict. He can be absolutely brilliant and at times he can be killed. Fortunately for the Phillies, the former has happened a lot more than the latter. But the possibility is still out there, especially if you can get to Lee early. If he gets in a groove, you're pretty much done.
Billingsley is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. He didn't pitch like that much during the home stretch. And Torre hasn't announced his rotation yet for the post season. Billingsley didn't start against the Cardinals when Torre went with Wolf, Kershaw and Padilla. But any of those four match up well with Lee in this Fan's opinion. The Fan would go with Billingsley on talent alone, but Torre likes to go with the hot hand, so we'll see.
But then you get to Game 3 and there are no pitchers among Pedro, Blanton, et al, that would seem to match up with whoever is left of Padilla, Wolf and Billingsley. It would seem that the Phillies best hope would be to steal the first two games, which doesn't seem possible. If the Dodgers seemed to have no trouble with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamel and Cliff Lee don't appear to be close to those two Cardinal pitchers.
It will be interesting, but this series seems to favor the Dodgers. Unlike last year, they have home field advantage. Unlike last year, they have a top notch bullpen. Their core young players have a year more experience. They are the better fielding team. They have Sherrill this year who can shut down the big lefties in the ninth if Torre wants to go that route.
The Fan just doesn't see the Phillies repeating. But the old cliche still stands: That's why they play the games.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Atlanta Braves - 2009 Debrief
Finished with the NL West, our debriefing tour around the majors jumps to the National League East. Since a reader requested the Braves and the Fan appreciates his readers, we'll skip out of order and start with the Atlanta Braves, who made a late run at the wild card before running out of time in 2009. Before 2009's review, a couple of early concerns appear about 2010. What effect will having Bobby Cox in a lame duck year have on the team? What does Chipper Jones do in his last year of his contract and what will happen to him after that? Okay, we brought up two major questions, let's look at a lot of bright spots 2009 showed us.
First, the Braves began building the next great pitching dynasty. Yeah, the could have handled the Smoltz and Glavine situations better as they gave the last remaining cogs of the last dynasty a couple of thankless boots. But whether the Braves handled that mess wrongly or rightly, they did the right thing. It's time for a new generation. The problem is that right now, there are only two of the four cogs in place. But man, those two are great!
Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson finished with a 160 and 144 respectively in ERA+. Jurrjens is 24 and Hanson is 23. Expect those two to be one and two in the Braves' rotation for a long time to come.
Keith Medlin has the ability to become the third. Ranked as only the 11th best prospect in the Braves' system going into 2009, Medlin has a good fastball that he spots well and a really good curve. He struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings in 37 appearances with the Braves (4 as a starter). There is concern about his small size and the amount of exertion he seems to need to deliver his pitches. But he is certainly worth a shot in 2010.
All the other top pitching prospects for the Braves are a couple to three years away, so that means augmenting with veterans. Javior Vazquez had by far the best year of his career. He seems to crumble in big stress match ups still, but he still finished with a 1.044 WHIP and an unreal 5.41 strikeout to walk ratio. Bobby Cox seems to have a knack for getting the most out of guys like Vazquez, and it would seem to behoove the Braves to give Vazquez the ball again in 2010.
Derek Lowe didn't really come through for the Braves despite his desperation signing after the Glavine and Smoltz fiascoes. He had a winning record, but a 1.515 WHIP and the worst ERA+ year of his career. He's going to be 37 next year, so it's hard to imagine him being a factor. Likewise, Kenshin Kawakami was just okay in his 25 starts. He's going to be 35 next year and shouldn't be counted on either.
Tim Hudson, on the other hand, is the wildcard veteran. Plagued by injuries of late, Hudson did come back at the end of the year and pitched effectively. If he can put a whole season together next season, then the Braves should have as good a rotation as anyone in the division and could possibly be far and above all the others.
The bullpen was the biggest improvement this year over 2008. What had been a brutal weakness turned into a strength as Soriano, Moylan, Gonzalez and O'Flaherty were terrific. Soriano had 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings as the closer and Gonzalez finished at 10.1. Those kinds of arms don't figure to fade next year. If Medlin does not make it into the rotation, he did great in the bullpen in 2009, so he could swing back there very easily and be as effective.
The Braves' offense in 2009 really started poorly. So poorly in fact that they had a .728 team OPS through the first half of the season. June was the worst month at .688. Ugh. Brian McCann had eye problems and started badly and Jordan Shafer, one of the team's most highly touted prospects failed miserably as the starting centerfielder for the first 50 games. Where Shafer goes from here is a mystery and it's unfortunate. But hey, if you don't produce when your ticket gets punched, what can you say?
The team also made a huge mistake in signing an aging and lumbering Garret Anderson and giving him 496 at bats. He ended with an 85 OPS+ and was a huge drain on the lineup. Another drain was second baseman, Kelly Johnson, who finished with the ungainly line of .224/.303/.389. It's uncertain of this was just a bad season for Johnson or if he is more like the player of 2007 and 2008 when he finished above league average.
But the Braves' offense clicked along better in the second half. Shafer was replaced by Nate McLouth, a great addition from Pittsburgh. McLouth didn't come close to his career numbers in offense, which is a bit puzzling, but he was a big improvement over Shafer. The Braves also improved dramatically when Jeff Francoeur was traded away to the Mets and Matt Diaz took his place in right field. Diaz was great with a 133 OPS+. He's going to be 32 next year, so it's hard to predict this long time minor leaguer can repeat himself.
The offense also got a boost when Adam LaRoche returned and clicked his heels repeating over and over, "There's no place like home, there's no place like home." He put a merciful end to the Norton/Kotchmann platoon over at that position. LaRoche is a solid performer who got lost out in Pittsburgh.
Yunel Escobar continues to get in and out of Bobby Cox's doghouse, but his overall batting numbers go up every year. Still only 26, Escobar is maturing into a really good shortstop with spectacular play at times. He is coming into his peak years and should continue to improve over the next three to four years.
Chipper Jones fell off from his 2008 numbers when he improbably led the league in batting. The aging veteran still put up respectable offensive numbers and ended up over league average by quite a bit. The problem is his defense. He made 22 errors this year and the question is whether the Braves can continue to tolerate that defense as Jones slowly fades out from his Hall of Fame career. There is no DH in the National League, which is where Jones should probably be. Look for him to have a diminished role in his last year with the Braves next year.
Martin Prado had an excellent year at the plate and filled in all over the infield. He's just a super guy to have on the club.
The Achilles Heel of the Braves is their defense. They finished 20th out of 26 MLB teams in defensive efficiency. Their catchers, while good offensively, are far from good in throwing out runners and they make a lot of errors. We've already discussed Jones at third. Having Garret Anderson in the outfield couldn't have helped and that problem should go away next year.
The Braves are in good shape for 2010. They have some big question marks, but if Kelly Johnson can bounce back, if uber-prospect Jason Heyward is given a shot in Spring Training and can run around the outfield better than Anderson, if Hanson and Jurrjens continue to blossom and Hudson can come back, if the bullpen does as well as this year, if the defense can improve, then the Braves should be above 90 wins next year. Their 14 game improvement in the win-loss column from 2008 was no fluke.
First, the Braves began building the next great pitching dynasty. Yeah, the could have handled the Smoltz and Glavine situations better as they gave the last remaining cogs of the last dynasty a couple of thankless boots. But whether the Braves handled that mess wrongly or rightly, they did the right thing. It's time for a new generation. The problem is that right now, there are only two of the four cogs in place. But man, those two are great!
Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson finished with a 160 and 144 respectively in ERA+. Jurrjens is 24 and Hanson is 23. Expect those two to be one and two in the Braves' rotation for a long time to come.
Keith Medlin has the ability to become the third. Ranked as only the 11th best prospect in the Braves' system going into 2009, Medlin has a good fastball that he spots well and a really good curve. He struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings in 37 appearances with the Braves (4 as a starter). There is concern about his small size and the amount of exertion he seems to need to deliver his pitches. But he is certainly worth a shot in 2010.
All the other top pitching prospects for the Braves are a couple to three years away, so that means augmenting with veterans. Javior Vazquez had by far the best year of his career. He seems to crumble in big stress match ups still, but he still finished with a 1.044 WHIP and an unreal 5.41 strikeout to walk ratio. Bobby Cox seems to have a knack for getting the most out of guys like Vazquez, and it would seem to behoove the Braves to give Vazquez the ball again in 2010.
Derek Lowe didn't really come through for the Braves despite his desperation signing after the Glavine and Smoltz fiascoes. He had a winning record, but a 1.515 WHIP and the worst ERA+ year of his career. He's going to be 37 next year, so it's hard to imagine him being a factor. Likewise, Kenshin Kawakami was just okay in his 25 starts. He's going to be 35 next year and shouldn't be counted on either.
Tim Hudson, on the other hand, is the wildcard veteran. Plagued by injuries of late, Hudson did come back at the end of the year and pitched effectively. If he can put a whole season together next season, then the Braves should have as good a rotation as anyone in the division and could possibly be far and above all the others.
The bullpen was the biggest improvement this year over 2008. What had been a brutal weakness turned into a strength as Soriano, Moylan, Gonzalez and O'Flaherty were terrific. Soriano had 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings as the closer and Gonzalez finished at 10.1. Those kinds of arms don't figure to fade next year. If Medlin does not make it into the rotation, he did great in the bullpen in 2009, so he could swing back there very easily and be as effective.
The Braves' offense in 2009 really started poorly. So poorly in fact that they had a .728 team OPS through the first half of the season. June was the worst month at .688. Ugh. Brian McCann had eye problems and started badly and Jordan Shafer, one of the team's most highly touted prospects failed miserably as the starting centerfielder for the first 50 games. Where Shafer goes from here is a mystery and it's unfortunate. But hey, if you don't produce when your ticket gets punched, what can you say?
The team also made a huge mistake in signing an aging and lumbering Garret Anderson and giving him 496 at bats. He ended with an 85 OPS+ and was a huge drain on the lineup. Another drain was second baseman, Kelly Johnson, who finished with the ungainly line of .224/.303/.389. It's uncertain of this was just a bad season for Johnson or if he is more like the player of 2007 and 2008 when he finished above league average.
But the Braves' offense clicked along better in the second half. Shafer was replaced by Nate McLouth, a great addition from Pittsburgh. McLouth didn't come close to his career numbers in offense, which is a bit puzzling, but he was a big improvement over Shafer. The Braves also improved dramatically when Jeff Francoeur was traded away to the Mets and Matt Diaz took his place in right field. Diaz was great with a 133 OPS+. He's going to be 32 next year, so it's hard to predict this long time minor leaguer can repeat himself.
The offense also got a boost when Adam LaRoche returned and clicked his heels repeating over and over, "There's no place like home, there's no place like home." He put a merciful end to the Norton/Kotchmann platoon over at that position. LaRoche is a solid performer who got lost out in Pittsburgh.
Yunel Escobar continues to get in and out of Bobby Cox's doghouse, but his overall batting numbers go up every year. Still only 26, Escobar is maturing into a really good shortstop with spectacular play at times. He is coming into his peak years and should continue to improve over the next three to four years.
Chipper Jones fell off from his 2008 numbers when he improbably led the league in batting. The aging veteran still put up respectable offensive numbers and ended up over league average by quite a bit. The problem is his defense. He made 22 errors this year and the question is whether the Braves can continue to tolerate that defense as Jones slowly fades out from his Hall of Fame career. There is no DH in the National League, which is where Jones should probably be. Look for him to have a diminished role in his last year with the Braves next year.
Martin Prado had an excellent year at the plate and filled in all over the infield. He's just a super guy to have on the club.
The Achilles Heel of the Braves is their defense. They finished 20th out of 26 MLB teams in defensive efficiency. Their catchers, while good offensively, are far from good in throwing out runners and they make a lot of errors. We've already discussed Jones at third. Having Garret Anderson in the outfield couldn't have helped and that problem should go away next year.
The Braves are in good shape for 2010. They have some big question marks, but if Kelly Johnson can bounce back, if uber-prospect Jason Heyward is given a shot in Spring Training and can run around the outfield better than Anderson, if Hanson and Jurrjens continue to blossom and Hudson can come back, if the bullpen does as well as this year, if the defense can improve, then the Braves should be above 90 wins next year. Their 14 game improvement in the win-loss column from 2008 was no fluke.
Los Angeles Dodgers - 2009 Debrief
It's time to get back to debriefing for the 2009 season. The Fan had a trade show over the weekend and writing became sporadic. But the show was a success and now it's time to get back to business here. We've been working on the National League West and the only team left from that division to consider is the Dodgers. Since the team is still in the thick of things in the playoffs, it might be premature to consider them. But we have a lot of data from the 2009 season no matter what the playoff outcomes are.
Obviously, the easiest observation to make is that the Dodgers had a great season. Like duh, right? But like all teams in the majors, there are good things and a few clunkers to consider moving forward and looking back. The year started with guns going off and the Dodgers were quick out of the gate. They built a big lead early and then had the Manny Ramirez bombshell drop. His 50 game suspension was supposed to put a damper on the Dodgers, but Juan Pierre filled in nicely and the Dodgers never ran into serious trouble all year except for a short time in September. The Fan's best guess is that the Dodgers tended to run the same eight position players into the lineup game after game and they might have just run out of gas for a bit. We will consider depth shortly. But let's start with pitching.
The Dodgers finished tied for first in the majors in runs allowed which means you can't complain about that at all. If you combine that with the fact that (despite Manny in left for 108 games), the team also finished first in defensive efficiency in the majors, that's a pretty great combination. But there are some weird anomalies with the Dodgers when it comes to pitching. They gave up the fewest runs, the fewest hits and led the league in complete games. They were the third best team in the National League in giving up homers. But they ranked nine out of sixteen NL teams in walks. They had an astounding nine regularly contributing pitchers who averaged more than 3.5 walks per nine innings. And their closer, Broxton, just missed that number. Clayton Kershaw, the incredibly young pitcher with the huge upside, had early Randy Johnson type numbers where he struck out more than nine batters per nine innings (9.7) but walked 4.8 per nine along the way.
The rotation should be good for years to come whether they re-up Randy Wolf for another year or not. Wolf had one of his best years of his career and is a good guy to have along with the young guys. He pitched far better than his 11-7 record indicates and really was their anchor. Billingsley had a tough second half but overall, his numbers are still above league average and his BABIP of .366 in losses (.300 would be the normal expectation) would seem to indicate he had a bit of bad luck. His line drive percentage was nearly identical to his career. He should bounce back. He is only 25 and should be a good pitcher for a long time.
Clayton Kershaw is such a force. It doesn't seem that it will be a question of if he will harness his stuff but when. Other than his walks, his numbers are unreal. The combination of Kershaw and Billingsley will keep the Dodgers percolating for a few years to come. If you add in young James McDonald, who got his feet wet this year and is the Dodgers' best prospect to that duo and you have a young and dynamic trio of top notch starters. McDonald pitched mostly in relief this year and logged a 102 ERA+ in 45 appearances.
Huroki Kuroda is going to be 35 next year and his health is a big question mark. When he pitches, he throws strikes and keeps the Dodgers in the game, but he only managed 118 innings this year. It would be hard to imagine the Dodgers expecting much more from him. If the top three mentioned earlier of Kershaw, Billingsley and MacDonald are augmented from a pick of Jon Garland, Vincente Padilla and Charlie Haeger (who the Dodgers really should give a shot to) or perhaps even prospect Scott Elbert might be ready to break into the rotation as well.
The relief corp seemed to have one of those years like the Bay Rays did last year. They were great, but only Broxton has a big time arm. Tronsoco, Belisario and Mota walk a lot of guys and don't strike out more than nine per nine innings and it would seem to be a stretch to think they could continue to match the success they had this year. Torre seems to have found a niche for Jeff Weaver as a swing man and although he has some clunkers still in him, he was effective at times in multiple roles.
It doesn't seem that much will change for more than half of the Dodgers' lineup next year. Manny will be in left, Kemp in center and Ethier in right. You can pencil them in. All three had an OPS+ over 120 and Manny, despite appearances, was only slightly off his career numbers in OPS+ and other statistics. No worries in the outfield.
The infield could look different next year. Casey Blake will be the third baseman. But Furcal will most likely be allowed to walk. His place will either be taken by a free agent or two very good prospects in Ivan DeJesus, Jr. or Chin-Lung Hu. Both are very good in the field and show some promise with the bat. Next year would be a good year to give both a shot in Spring Training and see what happens. Orlando Hudson faded as the year went along and was ultimately replaced by Ron Belliard, who had a hot hand late. Going forward, Hudson is a better bet than Belliard to play second long term. But it would be a surprise if either was the starting second baseman next year.
Catcher, Russell Martin, is a bit perplexing. He had a really off year at the plate and one would think it was just a blip this year, but his OPS has fallen three years in a row, so it's hard to categorize his drop in numbers that way. His defense is still fine and for that reason, there is no reason to not continue with him as their number one catcher. The Dodgers can hope that his offensive numbers stop their decline and that 2010 will be a bounce back year.
First baseman, James Loney, is another perplexing player. His numbers offensively do not support the position he plays. He's a good fielder but he's no Keith Hernandez (but who is?). But he doesn't hit like Hernandez either, so a guy with little power production and league average OPS+ at a power position doesn't seem to make sense. Loney increased his on base percentage, but he still had his second year in a row around the league average level.
There is no reason to believe that the Dodgers will fare much worse in 2010 than this year. They have young core at the plate and on the mound with some quality veterans in support. A little tinkering around the infield and this team looks good to go next year.
Obviously, the easiest observation to make is that the Dodgers had a great season. Like duh, right? But like all teams in the majors, there are good things and a few clunkers to consider moving forward and looking back. The year started with guns going off and the Dodgers were quick out of the gate. They built a big lead early and then had the Manny Ramirez bombshell drop. His 50 game suspension was supposed to put a damper on the Dodgers, but Juan Pierre filled in nicely and the Dodgers never ran into serious trouble all year except for a short time in September. The Fan's best guess is that the Dodgers tended to run the same eight position players into the lineup game after game and they might have just run out of gas for a bit. We will consider depth shortly. But let's start with pitching.
The Dodgers finished tied for first in the majors in runs allowed which means you can't complain about that at all. If you combine that with the fact that (despite Manny in left for 108 games), the team also finished first in defensive efficiency in the majors, that's a pretty great combination. But there are some weird anomalies with the Dodgers when it comes to pitching. They gave up the fewest runs, the fewest hits and led the league in complete games. They were the third best team in the National League in giving up homers. But they ranked nine out of sixteen NL teams in walks. They had an astounding nine regularly contributing pitchers who averaged more than 3.5 walks per nine innings. And their closer, Broxton, just missed that number. Clayton Kershaw, the incredibly young pitcher with the huge upside, had early Randy Johnson type numbers where he struck out more than nine batters per nine innings (9.7) but walked 4.8 per nine along the way.
The rotation should be good for years to come whether they re-up Randy Wolf for another year or not. Wolf had one of his best years of his career and is a good guy to have along with the young guys. He pitched far better than his 11-7 record indicates and really was their anchor. Billingsley had a tough second half but overall, his numbers are still above league average and his BABIP of .366 in losses (.300 would be the normal expectation) would seem to indicate he had a bit of bad luck. His line drive percentage was nearly identical to his career. He should bounce back. He is only 25 and should be a good pitcher for a long time.
Clayton Kershaw is such a force. It doesn't seem that it will be a question of if he will harness his stuff but when. Other than his walks, his numbers are unreal. The combination of Kershaw and Billingsley will keep the Dodgers percolating for a few years to come. If you add in young James McDonald, who got his feet wet this year and is the Dodgers' best prospect to that duo and you have a young and dynamic trio of top notch starters. McDonald pitched mostly in relief this year and logged a 102 ERA+ in 45 appearances.
Huroki Kuroda is going to be 35 next year and his health is a big question mark. When he pitches, he throws strikes and keeps the Dodgers in the game, but he only managed 118 innings this year. It would be hard to imagine the Dodgers expecting much more from him. If the top three mentioned earlier of Kershaw, Billingsley and MacDonald are augmented from a pick of Jon Garland, Vincente Padilla and Charlie Haeger (who the Dodgers really should give a shot to) or perhaps even prospect Scott Elbert might be ready to break into the rotation as well.
The relief corp seemed to have one of those years like the Bay Rays did last year. They were great, but only Broxton has a big time arm. Tronsoco, Belisario and Mota walk a lot of guys and don't strike out more than nine per nine innings and it would seem to be a stretch to think they could continue to match the success they had this year. Torre seems to have found a niche for Jeff Weaver as a swing man and although he has some clunkers still in him, he was effective at times in multiple roles.
It doesn't seem that much will change for more than half of the Dodgers' lineup next year. Manny will be in left, Kemp in center and Ethier in right. You can pencil them in. All three had an OPS+ over 120 and Manny, despite appearances, was only slightly off his career numbers in OPS+ and other statistics. No worries in the outfield.
The infield could look different next year. Casey Blake will be the third baseman. But Furcal will most likely be allowed to walk. His place will either be taken by a free agent or two very good prospects in Ivan DeJesus, Jr. or Chin-Lung Hu. Both are very good in the field and show some promise with the bat. Next year would be a good year to give both a shot in Spring Training and see what happens. Orlando Hudson faded as the year went along and was ultimately replaced by Ron Belliard, who had a hot hand late. Going forward, Hudson is a better bet than Belliard to play second long term. But it would be a surprise if either was the starting second baseman next year.
Catcher, Russell Martin, is a bit perplexing. He had a really off year at the plate and one would think it was just a blip this year, but his OPS has fallen three years in a row, so it's hard to categorize his drop in numbers that way. His defense is still fine and for that reason, there is no reason to not continue with him as their number one catcher. The Dodgers can hope that his offensive numbers stop their decline and that 2010 will be a bounce back year.
First baseman, James Loney, is another perplexing player. His numbers offensively do not support the position he plays. He's a good fielder but he's no Keith Hernandez (but who is?). But he doesn't hit like Hernandez either, so a guy with little power production and league average OPS+ at a power position doesn't seem to make sense. Loney increased his on base percentage, but he still had his second year in a row around the league average level.
There is no reason to believe that the Dodgers will fare much worse in 2010 than this year. They have young core at the plate and on the mound with some quality veterans in support. A little tinkering around the infield and this team looks good to go next year.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Blown Saves Story of Post Season So Far
You can talk about A-Rod suddenly becoming Mr. October or Sabathia earning his money or Vladamir Guerrero hitting that single or the Dodgers sweeping the Cardinals. The story of the post season at the end of the division series rounds is the blown saves. We had Joe Nathan serving up a two run homer to A-Rod. We had Ryan Franklin taking one on the chin. We had Jonathan Papelbon blowing his first ever post season game and now we have poor Huston Street who gave up a two run double to Howard and a single to Werth to send the Rockies home for the season.
There has been so much debate on the value of closers. This very space went through the math to prove that starters were more valuable than closers. The value figures prove it. But what all that math fails to take into account is that if your closer doesn't get his job done, then the off season starts earlier than you wanted it to. The Dodgers moved on because Sherrill and Broxton did their jobs and Franklin couldn't. The Yankees moved on because Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan is not. And the Angels move on because Jonathan Papelbon let it get away.
Can there be any worse feeling for fans on the losing side than a game that goes perfectly their way until the final at bat? Can hopes get dashed any deeper or a loss be any more frustrating? Sure, other factors led to all four series wins. The Dodgers out pitched and outhit the Cardinals, whose bats suddenly went to sleep. The Yankees got a little help from Mr. Cuzzi, but it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway. The Angels had an easy time of it with Boston's lineup and the Angels' starters, for the most part, were better this series than the Red Sox' starters. And the Phillies are the defending world champions and simply had a better team than the Rockies. But even so, those losses in the last inning kill you.
This Fan would think that a blowout is easier to take. After all, in a blowout, by the fifth inning, the writing is on the wall and the mourning is spread out over four innings before the final out. But in a blown save, the heart is beating and hope is raging right up until the very end only to come crashing down like a Denver lineman on Tom Brady.
And so, after the Rockies, Red Sox, Twins and Cardinals ponder next season and their fans try to think of anything but what could have been, we are left with two very intriguing series between four teams that match up very well against each other. What will be the deciding factors? Can A-Rod continue his hot hitting? Will he need to with all his batting mates? Will the Angels beat the Yankees in a series like they have three times this decade? Will Manny come alive against the Phillies? Can the Phillies get three decent starts from their shaky rotation? Or will it once again come down to closers?
The much-maligned Brad Lidge was 2 for 2 against the Rockies in save opportunities, but he sure didn't look solid. Broxton is in uncharted territory as he has never been under this big a microscope. Rivera is Rivera, but will a walk, a stolen base and another doink hit do him in? The Angels forgot all about K-Rod, but will his replacement be good enough?
It will be interesting to watch. Too bad we have to wait endless days before it all plays out. The Phillies and Dodgers don't start until Thursday and the Yankees and Angels don't start until Friday. Nice going, Bud.
The Fan wishes he had a crystal ball, because there are no clear cut favorites out there. Just four great teams going after each other with perhaps a twist at the end...like a dagger.
There has been so much debate on the value of closers. This very space went through the math to prove that starters were more valuable than closers. The value figures prove it. But what all that math fails to take into account is that if your closer doesn't get his job done, then the off season starts earlier than you wanted it to. The Dodgers moved on because Sherrill and Broxton did their jobs and Franklin couldn't. The Yankees moved on because Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan is not. And the Angels move on because Jonathan Papelbon let it get away.
Can there be any worse feeling for fans on the losing side than a game that goes perfectly their way until the final at bat? Can hopes get dashed any deeper or a loss be any more frustrating? Sure, other factors led to all four series wins. The Dodgers out pitched and outhit the Cardinals, whose bats suddenly went to sleep. The Yankees got a little help from Mr. Cuzzi, but it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway. The Angels had an easy time of it with Boston's lineup and the Angels' starters, for the most part, were better this series than the Red Sox' starters. And the Phillies are the defending world champions and simply had a better team than the Rockies. But even so, those losses in the last inning kill you.
This Fan would think that a blowout is easier to take. After all, in a blowout, by the fifth inning, the writing is on the wall and the mourning is spread out over four innings before the final out. But in a blown save, the heart is beating and hope is raging right up until the very end only to come crashing down like a Denver lineman on Tom Brady.
And so, after the Rockies, Red Sox, Twins and Cardinals ponder next season and their fans try to think of anything but what could have been, we are left with two very intriguing series between four teams that match up very well against each other. What will be the deciding factors? Can A-Rod continue his hot hitting? Will he need to with all his batting mates? Will the Angels beat the Yankees in a series like they have three times this decade? Will Manny come alive against the Phillies? Can the Phillies get three decent starts from their shaky rotation? Or will it once again come down to closers?
The much-maligned Brad Lidge was 2 for 2 against the Rockies in save opportunities, but he sure didn't look solid. Broxton is in uncharted territory as he has never been under this big a microscope. Rivera is Rivera, but will a walk, a stolen base and another doink hit do him in? The Angels forgot all about K-Rod, but will his replacement be good enough?
It will be interesting to watch. Too bad we have to wait endless days before it all plays out. The Phillies and Dodgers don't start until Thursday and the Yankees and Angels don't start until Friday. Nice going, Bud.
The Fan wishes he had a crystal ball, because there are no clear cut favorites out there. Just four great teams going after each other with perhaps a twist at the end...like a dagger.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Columbus Day
Columbus Day has become one of those nether holidays. Thanks to political correctness, we as a nation are somewhat embarrassed by the day. We won't go into politics or the America's aboriginal objection to the day. Suffice it to say that it is unique. It's another one of those holidays where some people have it off and some people don't Rob Neyer took the day off but Joe Posnanski did not. The Fan isn't talking about retail, hospital or other workers where no holidays really count. But for those who get holidays off, the banks are open and the post office is not. It's not even a holiday where sporting events are played during the day. The darn baseball playoffs have only one game scheduled and of course it starts at 8:07 Eastern Time. Heaven forbid those Philadelphia kids who go to school tomorrow get to stay up to watch their team. Thank you, Bud Selig. Good job.
Personally, the Fan wouldn't want to get rid of the day. For one thing, the Fan's wife gets the day off and the Fan likes when that happens. Having her sit on the couch while the Fan lays out another book is a nice feeling. But it's more than that. Without this holiday and the man it celebrates, there would be no Columbus Clippers, that storied AAA franchise. Our nation's capital would be the District of Eric or Leaf or something. And maybe the Fan does want to get into the politics of it after all.
We are the only nation of conquerors that feels bad about our conquests. Do the Russians feel guilty? What about the Minnesota Vikings? Wouldn't all practicing Catholics object to that name considering all the plundering of churches and killing of priests those rowdy bunches of pillagers performed? Germany doesn't feel guilty about their ancient history when all those Germanic tribes overran Europe and displaced those peoples. But in the end, the Fan supposes that it is better to be sensitive than insensitive. After all, the Fan is sure that the Yankees feel slightly bad for the Twins they just destroyed in the playoffs, right?
Anyway, that's just a couple of thoughts that were rolling around the brain on this non-holiday like holiday. If you have it off, enjoy it as guilt free as you can. If you are working, then feel free to not feel guilty at all since you don't get any benefit of the day anyway.
Personally, the Fan wouldn't want to get rid of the day. For one thing, the Fan's wife gets the day off and the Fan likes when that happens. Having her sit on the couch while the Fan lays out another book is a nice feeling. But it's more than that. Without this holiday and the man it celebrates, there would be no Columbus Clippers, that storied AAA franchise. Our nation's capital would be the District of Eric or Leaf or something. And maybe the Fan does want to get into the politics of it after all.
We are the only nation of conquerors that feels bad about our conquests. Do the Russians feel guilty? What about the Minnesota Vikings? Wouldn't all practicing Catholics object to that name considering all the plundering of churches and killing of priests those rowdy bunches of pillagers performed? Germany doesn't feel guilty about their ancient history when all those Germanic tribes overran Europe and displaced those peoples. But in the end, the Fan supposes that it is better to be sensitive than insensitive. After all, the Fan is sure that the Yankees feel slightly bad for the Twins they just destroyed in the playoffs, right?
Anyway, that's just a couple of thoughts that were rolling around the brain on this non-holiday like holiday. If you have it off, enjoy it as guilt free as you can. If you are working, then feel free to not feel guilty at all since you don't get any benefit of the day anyway.
Angels and Yankees Advance - Phillies Inch Closer
Are the Angels the new 2004 Red Sox? After getting a long history of failing to beat the Red Sox in the playoffs off their backs with a rousing defeat of their nemesis, the Angels will face the Yankees in the American League Championship Series. The Yankees beat an over matched Twins' team and have won their first post season series since 2005. Meanwhile, on a frigid Colorado night, the Phillies have inched closer to facing the Dodgers in the NLCS.
Let's start with the Angels. This Fan has to admit that the Angels' come from behind victory was stunning and gratifying. Jonathan Papelbon is probably the most disliked reliever in baseball since John Rocker and to see him get beat was a thing of beauty. The Fan also has to admit that the Angels match up better with the Yankees than the current Red Sox do. The Yankees totally dominated the Red Sox toward the end of the season.
The Red Sox will have to do some serious thinking about their 2010 club as several things seemed to go wrong for them this year. The starting rotation turned out to be a mess after being touted so highly early in the year. The bullpen really was not as good as touted either. And their batting was anemic. Both David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis batted .083 in the series and did not provide any kind of help for the team. One has to question whether the Red Sox will continue with Ortiz or if the post season analysis will reveal that the Angels just did a masterful job of pitching to him. The Red Sox staff is one of the smartest in all of baseball and they have their work cut out for them.
The Angels on the other hand look dynamic and resilient. They had the upper hand in all phases of the series and when they had their backs to the wall in the third and final game, they answered and took the brass ring. Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu have been remarkable and Vlad Guerrero got his legs under him for one final big hit. This Fan would call their series with the Yankees as too close to call. Both teams seem evenly matched.
The Yankees got big time play from four of the remaining guys from their last championship. Andy Pettitte was brilliant against the Twins. Jorge Posada got the big home run against Carl Phreakin Pavano to put the Yankees ahead. Jeter, quiet at the bat after a good first two games, made another one of his patented heads up plays in the post season by ranging far to his left to get a grounder and then throwing home to hang pesky Nick Punto out to dry after he ranged too far past third base. Mariano Rivera came in for the last out in the eighth when the game was still 2-1 and shattered the great Joe Mauer's bat like no other reliever in baseball can do to get the final out. After the Yankees picked up two more runs off of Nathan and company, Rivera closed out the game. But there is no way to forget that this was a playoff coming of age party for Alex Rodriguez, whose homer off of Pavano when Pavano seemed untouchable, got the Yankees in the mindset where they could win the game. A-Rod was finally exonerated for post season failures in the past and was clutch often and put the Yankees over the top.
The Rockies probably should have started an experienced Jason Marquis instead of Jason Hammel against the Phillies. This writer feels that he would have given the Rockies a better chance to win the game. Hammel did not stop the Phillies and the Rockies also went to the Jose Contreras well once too often. The Rockies had stolen home field advantage from the Phillies by taking one of the games at Philadelphia, but then handed it right back to them with a loss at home. Utley and Howard came up big for the Phillies and the Phillies seem to be back in control.
Let's start with the Angels. This Fan has to admit that the Angels' come from behind victory was stunning and gratifying. Jonathan Papelbon is probably the most disliked reliever in baseball since John Rocker and to see him get beat was a thing of beauty. The Fan also has to admit that the Angels match up better with the Yankees than the current Red Sox do. The Yankees totally dominated the Red Sox toward the end of the season.
The Red Sox will have to do some serious thinking about their 2010 club as several things seemed to go wrong for them this year. The starting rotation turned out to be a mess after being touted so highly early in the year. The bullpen really was not as good as touted either. And their batting was anemic. Both David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis batted .083 in the series and did not provide any kind of help for the team. One has to question whether the Red Sox will continue with Ortiz or if the post season analysis will reveal that the Angels just did a masterful job of pitching to him. The Red Sox staff is one of the smartest in all of baseball and they have their work cut out for them.
The Angels on the other hand look dynamic and resilient. They had the upper hand in all phases of the series and when they had their backs to the wall in the third and final game, they answered and took the brass ring. Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu have been remarkable and Vlad Guerrero got his legs under him for one final big hit. This Fan would call their series with the Yankees as too close to call. Both teams seem evenly matched.
The Yankees got big time play from four of the remaining guys from their last championship. Andy Pettitte was brilliant against the Twins. Jorge Posada got the big home run against Carl Phreakin Pavano to put the Yankees ahead. Jeter, quiet at the bat after a good first two games, made another one of his patented heads up plays in the post season by ranging far to his left to get a grounder and then throwing home to hang pesky Nick Punto out to dry after he ranged too far past third base. Mariano Rivera came in for the last out in the eighth when the game was still 2-1 and shattered the great Joe Mauer's bat like no other reliever in baseball can do to get the final out. After the Yankees picked up two more runs off of Nathan and company, Rivera closed out the game. But there is no way to forget that this was a playoff coming of age party for Alex Rodriguez, whose homer off of Pavano when Pavano seemed untouchable, got the Yankees in the mindset where they could win the game. A-Rod was finally exonerated for post season failures in the past and was clutch often and put the Yankees over the top.
The Rockies probably should have started an experienced Jason Marquis instead of Jason Hammel against the Phillies. This writer feels that he would have given the Rockies a better chance to win the game. Hammel did not stop the Phillies and the Rockies also went to the Jose Contreras well once too often. The Rockies had stolen home field advantage from the Phillies by taking one of the games at Philadelphia, but then handed it right back to them with a loss at home. Utley and Howard came up big for the Phillies and the Phillies seem to be back in control.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Padilla - From Outcast to Hero in 8 Easy Steps
Vincente Padilla was run out of Texas not by his manager, not by his general manager, but by his teammates. He was lazy they said. He kept putting them in danger by hitting the other team's player they said. He was not a good teammate they said. It didn't help that he wasn't performing overly well either. Baseball writers and bloggers (like this one) vilified him and castigated him for who he was and how he acted. But then on August 5, 2009, the Dodgers took him off the Rangers' hands and all he did with the Dodgers was go 4-0 in seven regular season starts and he just pitched the Dodgers into the National League Championship Series. Life is funny some times.
Padilla did not pitch well in Texas this year. He really hadn't pitch well for them since 2006 when he went 15-10 and was just barely over league average in ERA+. He also led the league in hit batsmen that year with 17. This year, while in Texas, he posted his worst strikeout to walk ratio (1.40) since 2005. His ERA+ in Texas from 2007 to 2009 went 78, 93 and 92. He really hasn't been a good pitcher since his 2002, 2003 seasons with the Phillies. Those two seasons with the Phillies cemented his head hunting reputation when he hit a combined 31 batters those two seasons. So how do you explain his success with the Dodgers?
You can claim it is pitching in Chavez Ravine and in that pitcher's park. That would fly if his strikeout to walk ratio remained what it has been. But it was more than that. With the Dodgers, his strikeout to walk ratio zoomed to 3.17! The highest his strikeout per nine innings statistic in his entire career was 7.7. With the Dodgers this year, it was 8.7. And you know what? He didn't hit a single batter with the Dodgers. Not one. So what gives?
Maybe what happened in Texas was a wake up call. Maybe he saw the end of his lucrative occupation looming if he didn't get his act together. Maybe he hasn't changed at all but is just the new guy to a new team to a different league and put it together for seven starts and a start in the playoffs. Who knows. All this writer knows is that he certainly aided the Dodgers when they limped down the stretch and fended off the surging Rockies to take the division title. All the writer knows is that he gave the Dodgers a magnificent start in Game 3 and put away the Cardinals for the season.
Some will say that the Rangers might have thrown away their chances when they threw away Padilla. This Fan doesn't think that can be said at all. Padilla was in a bad place there. His teammates simply didn't want him and that is not a workable arrangement. McCarthy took Padilla's spot in the Rangers' rotation and pitched more effectively than Padilla did there (not by much, but by some). So really, the Rangers didn't lose much of anything. But the Dodgers? The Dodgers gained four wins they were struggling to find and they gained a solid chance to get to the World Series.
Padilla did not pitch well in Texas this year. He really hadn't pitch well for them since 2006 when he went 15-10 and was just barely over league average in ERA+. He also led the league in hit batsmen that year with 17. This year, while in Texas, he posted his worst strikeout to walk ratio (1.40) since 2005. His ERA+ in Texas from 2007 to 2009 went 78, 93 and 92. He really hasn't been a good pitcher since his 2002, 2003 seasons with the Phillies. Those two seasons with the Phillies cemented his head hunting reputation when he hit a combined 31 batters those two seasons. So how do you explain his success with the Dodgers?
You can claim it is pitching in Chavez Ravine and in that pitcher's park. That would fly if his strikeout to walk ratio remained what it has been. But it was more than that. With the Dodgers, his strikeout to walk ratio zoomed to 3.17! The highest his strikeout per nine innings statistic in his entire career was 7.7. With the Dodgers this year, it was 8.7. And you know what? He didn't hit a single batter with the Dodgers. Not one. So what gives?
Maybe what happened in Texas was a wake up call. Maybe he saw the end of his lucrative occupation looming if he didn't get his act together. Maybe he hasn't changed at all but is just the new guy to a new team to a different league and put it together for seven starts and a start in the playoffs. Who knows. All this writer knows is that he certainly aided the Dodgers when they limped down the stretch and fended off the surging Rockies to take the division title. All the writer knows is that he gave the Dodgers a magnificent start in Game 3 and put away the Cardinals for the season.
Some will say that the Rangers might have thrown away their chances when they threw away Padilla. This Fan doesn't think that can be said at all. Padilla was in a bad place there. His teammates simply didn't want him and that is not a workable arrangement. McCarthy took Padilla's spot in the Rangers' rotation and pitched more effectively than Padilla did there (not by much, but by some). So really, the Rangers didn't lose much of anything. But the Dodgers? The Dodgers gained four wins they were struggling to find and they gained a solid chance to get to the World Series.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Twins Snake Bit and Self Bit
Last night's divisional series playoff game between the Yankees and the Twins has to be one of the most perplexing, vexing, emotional and ultimately controversial games this writer has ever watched. In the end, the Twins lost because Nathan couldn't get the job done, the umpires couldn't get the job done and the Yankees don't lose when given eleven chances to beat you.
Much like the Detroit-Minnesota thriller that put the Twins into the post season, it all boiled down to the home team having the last at bat to win the game. You can talk about the fans and familiarity being the biggest advantage for the home team, but the real advantage is having that last at bat. Once the game gets down to the wire, if the home team scores, it's over. So you can talk about the Yankee Stadium short porch or the Twins loud crowd in the Metrodome all you want. The Twins-Tigers game and the Twins-Yankees game were both thrilling and emotional, but both were over because of the biggest advantage a home team has.
But what a game though. Nick Blackburn, who the awful TBS announcers kept describing as a wonderful pitcher despite the back to back 11-11 seasons and a 22-24 lifetime record, combined with Mahay, Rauch and Guerrier to totally stifle the bats of the Yankees. The only ding off of those gentlemen were a double by Jeter followed by a two-out single by a suddenly post-season clutch Alex Rodriguez. Meanwhile, the Yankees' other millionaire pitcher, A. J. Burnett, kept playing with the blasting cap of dynamite for six scary innings. Burnett was great for the first two batters of each inning. But then would start getting cute and would walk a guy or hit two or walk two more. Despite Burnett's adventures, the Twins scored only once off of him. They almost scored twice except for a stroke of bad luck or bad base running, depending on how you look at it.
It was the top of the fourth inning and Burnett easily got the first two batters on a strike out and a foul out. Then, typically, Burnett started to get goosey. First he hit Delmon Young. Then he hit Carlos Gomez. It's a good thing Molina was behind the plate instead of Posada, eh? Tolbert then hit a single to right and Swisher, a player who seems both brilliant at times and helpless at others, thought about throwing home, but instead threw to second (it appeared that Jeter helped that decision by asking for the throw). Gomez, one of the fastest men in baseball had rounded second with thoughts of going to third when he picked up the third base coach who gave him the "GO BACK!" sign. Gomez tried to put on the brakes, but instead folded like a rusty beach chair and sprawled on the ground in no man's land. Jeter got the throw and tagged out the stunned Gomez before Young (who was hustling) got to home plate. The run didn't count and the Twins lost a golden opportunity.
But the Twins didn't lose their opportunity against Phil Hughes in top of the eighth. Hughes pulled his best Burnett impression and easily got the first two batters. Then he got cute with Carlos Gomez and walked him after having a 1-2 count. The Fan could be heard screaming at the television (PUT HIM AWAY STUPID!). But he got cute instead. The next batter was Nick Punto. Punto is one of the worst offensive players in the major leagues. He makes the Marlins' Bonafacio look like Albert Pujols. He had a .621 OPS this season, right near his career mark. But he is one of those "ball players" the TBS announcers keep talking about.
Hughes started Punto with a diet of fastballs. Punto swung at them like a man trying to ward off mosquitoes. Although he managed to foul a few off, you could tell that there was no way Nick Punto was going to be able to put any kind of Hughes fastball in play. So what does Hughes do? He throws him a curve. Base hit, run scored. 2-1. This has been happening all series with Punto. The Yankee pitchers are treating him with so much respect it's silly. He's walked four times in the two games.
So anyway, it's 2-1 and the Yankees go to Rivera, who probably saved this game without getting a save. Rivera did give up a hit to Denard Span that made it 3-1. But then he made Orlando Cabrera (who acts like he is amped on meth or something most of the time) look silly with a few cutters and ended the threat.
After another weak inning for the Yankees in the bottom of the eighth, Rivera shut down the Twins in the top of the ninth including making the AL MVP, Joe Mauer look sick on some nasty cutters. Without Rivera, the dramatics that followed would never have happened.
Then Joe Nathan came into the game. Twins' fans might remember that Nathan, one of the best closers in baseball, has not fared well in the post season. And the Fan could tell why. Nathan looked about as nervous on the mound as any player has ever looked in a professional sporting event. He was sweating. He was swatting his glove on his face and his head. He was twitching and snorting like a horse. He simply looked scared to death.
Nathan's first two tasks were Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Yeah, those guys are pretty good. But instead of attacking them aggressively, which is what Rivera does, Nathan pitched like a squirrel trying to out-juke an oncoming car. With Teixeira, he threw a couple of breaking balls and got behind in the count. When Nathan finally did throw a fastball, he left it in the heart of the plate and Teixeira mashed it to right. Nathan did the same thing to A-Rod. A few weak breaking balls and A-Rod had the count in his favor. He could sit dead red, and red was what he got. Rodriguez didn't miss it and pounded the ball out into the night. Game tied. Nathan somehow managed to survive the next three outs and the game went into extra innings.
The Yankees had a threat in the bottom of the tenth. Nathan was still in there and shattered Posada's bat, but Posada still found a way to get that pitch to bloop into the outfield for a hit. Brent (or is it Brett?) Gardner went in to run for Posada and promptly stole second. Apparently, Nathan hasn't successfully stopped a runner from stealing since the Clinton administration. The Twins, still concerned about Gardner going to third, called a pickoff play at second. Nathan whirled, but not far enough (the equivalent of an olympic diver not rotating his somersault enough) and threw the ball forty feet wide of second. Gardner crashed into Cabrera going back to the bag and then looked stunned for a minute. Then he headed for third but stumbled first. The centerfielder picked up the ball when Gardner was only a few feet off second and the Yankees' fans around the world thought, "Crap." Even the replay of Jeter watching the whole thing saw Jeter's face as he was inwardly saying, "Crap." But somehow Gardner beat the throw to third. It wasn't even close. Nathan then walked Jeter intentionally to set up a double play and face Damon.
Except, they brought the infield in, which was weird. You would have thought the first and third basemen would be in and the middle infielders would be in double-play depth. But they were all in. Damon came up and everyone everywhere was probably thinking the game was going to be over. All Damon needed to do was hit a fly ball against Mijares (who relieved Nathan) and the game was over. But Damon hit a smash line drive right at Cabrera at shortstop. Who the heck knows what Gardner was thinking as he ran on contact. He may have been instructed to do so or he may have just been stupid. Either way, it became an easy double-play for the Twins. Momentum back to the Twins.
And so the Twins come up in the top of the 11th. With Joe Mauer leading off and Damaso Marte in to pitch. Marte has no business being on the post season roster. None. Mauer used his patented inside out swing to send the ball to left. Melky Cabrera chased after it and it hit off his glove and landed two feet inside the foul line. Cuzzi, the umpire, whose only job in this game is to figure out if a ball in left field is fair or foul, then made one of the worst umpiring calls in the history of post season play and called the ball foul. What!? Huh!? Are you kidding!? What a horrible call! Somebody tell the Fan why baseball doesn't use replay?
But baseball won't use replay so Mauer has to settle for a single on the next pitch. Kubel, who has struggled this series, then hit a single to right. Mauer stopped at second. Remember that he should now be on third. The Yankees then realized their Marte decision was a mistake and brought in Robertson. He promptly delivered a single to Cuddyer. Mauer stops at third (he would have scored at this point if he was given the double). Why the Twins chose to run the bases so conservatively this inning is a bit baffling. But they station-to-stationed it.
The next guy up was Delmon Young who hit a screaming liner right at Teixeira. Bad luck, but unlike Gardner, the Twins didn't get doubled up on the play. Gomez then hit into a fielder's choice with Mauer out at home. Harris then flew out weakly to end the inning. Granted, Cuzzi really blew that call, but how can the Twins load the bases with no outs and not score?
Predictably, Teixeira led off the bottom of the eleventh with a homer (a wall-scraper as he called it) and the Yankees won the game. What a see-saw ride that was. What a game. What bad umpiring (the home plate umpire didn't know a strike from a ball the entire game either). What a bad clutch performance by the Twins. What great clutch performances by the Yankees (other than the Gardner gaffe).
These Yankees are different this year than the past few years. They have excitement. They pull hard for each other. They have fun. They are playing like kids. It looks a lot like the '04 Red Sox. The Twins? They need a miracle.
Much like the Detroit-Minnesota thriller that put the Twins into the post season, it all boiled down to the home team having the last at bat to win the game. You can talk about the fans and familiarity being the biggest advantage for the home team, but the real advantage is having that last at bat. Once the game gets down to the wire, if the home team scores, it's over. So you can talk about the Yankee Stadium short porch or the Twins loud crowd in the Metrodome all you want. The Twins-Tigers game and the Twins-Yankees game were both thrilling and emotional, but both were over because of the biggest advantage a home team has.
But what a game though. Nick Blackburn, who the awful TBS announcers kept describing as a wonderful pitcher despite the back to back 11-11 seasons and a 22-24 lifetime record, combined with Mahay, Rauch and Guerrier to totally stifle the bats of the Yankees. The only ding off of those gentlemen were a double by Jeter followed by a two-out single by a suddenly post-season clutch Alex Rodriguez. Meanwhile, the Yankees' other millionaire pitcher, A. J. Burnett, kept playing with the blasting cap of dynamite for six scary innings. Burnett was great for the first two batters of each inning. But then would start getting cute and would walk a guy or hit two or walk two more. Despite Burnett's adventures, the Twins scored only once off of him. They almost scored twice except for a stroke of bad luck or bad base running, depending on how you look at it.
It was the top of the fourth inning and Burnett easily got the first two batters on a strike out and a foul out. Then, typically, Burnett started to get goosey. First he hit Delmon Young. Then he hit Carlos Gomez. It's a good thing Molina was behind the plate instead of Posada, eh? Tolbert then hit a single to right and Swisher, a player who seems both brilliant at times and helpless at others, thought about throwing home, but instead threw to second (it appeared that Jeter helped that decision by asking for the throw). Gomez, one of the fastest men in baseball had rounded second with thoughts of going to third when he picked up the third base coach who gave him the "GO BACK!" sign. Gomez tried to put on the brakes, but instead folded like a rusty beach chair and sprawled on the ground in no man's land. Jeter got the throw and tagged out the stunned Gomez before Young (who was hustling) got to home plate. The run didn't count and the Twins lost a golden opportunity.
But the Twins didn't lose their opportunity against Phil Hughes in top of the eighth. Hughes pulled his best Burnett impression and easily got the first two batters. Then he got cute with Carlos Gomez and walked him after having a 1-2 count. The Fan could be heard screaming at the television (PUT HIM AWAY STUPID!). But he got cute instead. The next batter was Nick Punto. Punto is one of the worst offensive players in the major leagues. He makes the Marlins' Bonafacio look like Albert Pujols. He had a .621 OPS this season, right near his career mark. But he is one of those "ball players" the TBS announcers keep talking about.
Hughes started Punto with a diet of fastballs. Punto swung at them like a man trying to ward off mosquitoes. Although he managed to foul a few off, you could tell that there was no way Nick Punto was going to be able to put any kind of Hughes fastball in play. So what does Hughes do? He throws him a curve. Base hit, run scored. 2-1. This has been happening all series with Punto. The Yankee pitchers are treating him with so much respect it's silly. He's walked four times in the two games.
So anyway, it's 2-1 and the Yankees go to Rivera, who probably saved this game without getting a save. Rivera did give up a hit to Denard Span that made it 3-1. But then he made Orlando Cabrera (who acts like he is amped on meth or something most of the time) look silly with a few cutters and ended the threat.
After another weak inning for the Yankees in the bottom of the eighth, Rivera shut down the Twins in the top of the ninth including making the AL MVP, Joe Mauer look sick on some nasty cutters. Without Rivera, the dramatics that followed would never have happened.
Then Joe Nathan came into the game. Twins' fans might remember that Nathan, one of the best closers in baseball, has not fared well in the post season. And the Fan could tell why. Nathan looked about as nervous on the mound as any player has ever looked in a professional sporting event. He was sweating. He was swatting his glove on his face and his head. He was twitching and snorting like a horse. He simply looked scared to death.
Nathan's first two tasks were Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Yeah, those guys are pretty good. But instead of attacking them aggressively, which is what Rivera does, Nathan pitched like a squirrel trying to out-juke an oncoming car. With Teixeira, he threw a couple of breaking balls and got behind in the count. When Nathan finally did throw a fastball, he left it in the heart of the plate and Teixeira mashed it to right. Nathan did the same thing to A-Rod. A few weak breaking balls and A-Rod had the count in his favor. He could sit dead red, and red was what he got. Rodriguez didn't miss it and pounded the ball out into the night. Game tied. Nathan somehow managed to survive the next three outs and the game went into extra innings.
The Yankees had a threat in the bottom of the tenth. Nathan was still in there and shattered Posada's bat, but Posada still found a way to get that pitch to bloop into the outfield for a hit. Brent (or is it Brett?) Gardner went in to run for Posada and promptly stole second. Apparently, Nathan hasn't successfully stopped a runner from stealing since the Clinton administration. The Twins, still concerned about Gardner going to third, called a pickoff play at second. Nathan whirled, but not far enough (the equivalent of an olympic diver not rotating his somersault enough) and threw the ball forty feet wide of second. Gardner crashed into Cabrera going back to the bag and then looked stunned for a minute. Then he headed for third but stumbled first. The centerfielder picked up the ball when Gardner was only a few feet off second and the Yankees' fans around the world thought, "Crap." Even the replay of Jeter watching the whole thing saw Jeter's face as he was inwardly saying, "Crap." But somehow Gardner beat the throw to third. It wasn't even close. Nathan then walked Jeter intentionally to set up a double play and face Damon.
Except, they brought the infield in, which was weird. You would have thought the first and third basemen would be in and the middle infielders would be in double-play depth. But they were all in. Damon came up and everyone everywhere was probably thinking the game was going to be over. All Damon needed to do was hit a fly ball against Mijares (who relieved Nathan) and the game was over. But Damon hit a smash line drive right at Cabrera at shortstop. Who the heck knows what Gardner was thinking as he ran on contact. He may have been instructed to do so or he may have just been stupid. Either way, it became an easy double-play for the Twins. Momentum back to the Twins.
And so the Twins come up in the top of the 11th. With Joe Mauer leading off and Damaso Marte in to pitch. Marte has no business being on the post season roster. None. Mauer used his patented inside out swing to send the ball to left. Melky Cabrera chased after it and it hit off his glove and landed two feet inside the foul line. Cuzzi, the umpire, whose only job in this game is to figure out if a ball in left field is fair or foul, then made one of the worst umpiring calls in the history of post season play and called the ball foul. What!? Huh!? Are you kidding!? What a horrible call! Somebody tell the Fan why baseball doesn't use replay?
But baseball won't use replay so Mauer has to settle for a single on the next pitch. Kubel, who has struggled this series, then hit a single to right. Mauer stopped at second. Remember that he should now be on third. The Yankees then realized their Marte decision was a mistake and brought in Robertson. He promptly delivered a single to Cuddyer. Mauer stops at third (he would have scored at this point if he was given the double). Why the Twins chose to run the bases so conservatively this inning is a bit baffling. But they station-to-stationed it.
The next guy up was Delmon Young who hit a screaming liner right at Teixeira. Bad luck, but unlike Gardner, the Twins didn't get doubled up on the play. Gomez then hit into a fielder's choice with Mauer out at home. Harris then flew out weakly to end the inning. Granted, Cuzzi really blew that call, but how can the Twins load the bases with no outs and not score?
Predictably, Teixeira led off the bottom of the eleventh with a homer (a wall-scraper as he called it) and the Yankees won the game. What a see-saw ride that was. What a game. What bad umpiring (the home plate umpire didn't know a strike from a ball the entire game either). What a bad clutch performance by the Twins. What great clutch performances by the Yankees (other than the Gardner gaffe).
These Yankees are different this year than the past few years. They have excitement. They pull hard for each other. They have fun. They are playing like kids. It looks a lot like the '04 Red Sox. The Twins? They need a miracle.
Friday, October 09, 2009
The Colorado Rockies - 2009 Debrief
This continues a series on debriefing every MLB club for the 2009 series. The series started with a look at the National League West and has already discussed the Padres, Diamondbacks and the Giants. It's now time to feature the Rockies and then tomorrow, the Dodgers. Those last two tasks are difficult as the teams are still playing in the playoffs. This writer, for example, has to certainly eat crow after stating openly that it wouldn't seem likely for the Rockies to win a game against the Phillies. The Rockies did win a game last night and it's just one more unlikely event for a little team that could in 2009.
In a pun very much intended, the Rockies have overcome every large Hurdle this year to get to the playoffs. They are the wild card team because they won more games than the Giants, the Braves, the Marlins and everyone in the Central Division. The Rockies set a franchise record for wins with 92, besting the 90 they produced in 2007 when they were truly the Cinderella story of that season. They did so despite a pitching staff that ranked 17th out of 26 teams and a defense that ranked in the same exact slot. How did that happen?
The first question cannot really be answered as there is no way to measure the answer. Why would a team start the season 18-28 under one manager (Hurdle) and finish with another manager the rest of the season at a 74-42 clip? There is no way of really knowing why it was not going so well under Hurdle and then went so well with Tracy. After all, Tracy has managed other places with moderate results. Was this a case of a really bad situation whose resolution allowed the players to play to their capability? Or would this team have been this good anyway? Who knows. All we know is that they started the season in a huge hole and were ten games under .500 when Tracy took over. That is a deep hole. But the team took off after that including an eleven game win streak.
Not matter where the truth lies, the main facts are that the starting rotation settled down and had a good season 1-5, which no team can state. Their offense, largely due to a resurgence in Tulowitzki. And their closer, Huston Street, turned it on after a truly abysmal start. Let's start with the rotation.
The Rockies have five starters that made all but seven starts for the team. In other words, they each took the ball during their turn and stayed healthy and stayed moderately effective. You can't look at any other playoff team and say that. The Yankees have certainly featured some adventures in their rotation as have the Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, Angels, Cardinals and Twins. The five (Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Marquis, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Ubaldo Jiminez) are not spectacular by any stretch. Three of the five walked over 80 batters this year. Only one had a WHIP under 1.350. Only one (Hammel) had a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio. But the key for these five are that they took the ball every five days all year and kept their team in the game while the offense won the game.
The offense is unfortunately, still defined by Coors Field. Humidor or no, the Rockies had an OPS at home of .849 and only .718 on the road. Compare that to the Yankees who went .858 at home and .822 on the road. The Rockies' batting average and OBP were 50 points higher at home. Their slugging percentage was 83 points higher at Coors. Star shortstop, Troy Trevor Tulowitzki is a prime example. He is Hanley Ramirez at home and well, Troy Tulowitzki on the road. It's a sad fact that Holliday has the ability to overcome with the Cardinals while Todd Helton may never be taken seriously as the star he has been.
But the fact remains that the Rockies finished second in the National League in runs scored, first in walks and OPS, third in doubles, first in triples and second in home runs. They are patient at the plate and will wear out the opposing starter. Five of their regular eight position players finished well over 100 OPS+. Their only positional weakness at bat they have are at catcher, second base and third base.
Huston Street had a good year after a bad start. Street struggled last year, so much so that when the year began, Manual Corpas won the closing job. Corpas struggled immediately and the two were again switched. Much of the success of the team this year can be given to Street who was very good for the last three quarters of the season. And it's a good thing because he didn't have much company in the bullpen. Daley and Morales were adequate. Corpas and Embree were terrible. The team got a late boost by the unlikely trio of Josh Fogg, Jose Contreras and Rafael Betancourt down the stretch. All three were spectacular down the stretch. Betancourt was really effective and finished with a 1.78 ERA in 32 appearances.
The Rockies' fielding needs to improve. Placing 17th out of 26 teams in defensive efficiency is not going to cut it. Tulowitzki had a very good season in the field. The tandem of Iannetta and Torrealba really struggle to throw out runners. Iannetta finished at 26% and Torrealba at a Varitek-like 14%. Watching him during the playoffs, Torrealba's mechanics seem to be most at fault. He is not in a good position to throw and he looks awkward.
The Rockies best prospect already broke into the majors this year and that was Dexter Fowler. Fowler had a successful rookie campaign even though he tailed off toward the end of the year at the plate. He has really anchored down the outfield (goodbye Willy Tavares) and should be an effective player for years to come. He shows good patience at the plate and his power numbers should increase along with his batting average.
Other than Fowler, there isn't much in the Rockies' pipeline. Dhoulys Chacin is a five-star prospect and could get a chance to break into the rotation next year, especially if Marquis walks during free agency.
The Rockies will go as far as their pitching will take them. It would seem difficult for their current rotation to duplicate the amazing durability and stability they provided this year. Jiminez and De La Rosa are good talents and should get better barring injury. It is hard to see them winning more than 88 games next year. But then again, it was hard seeing them win a game against the Phillies and look at that!
In a pun very much intended, the Rockies have overcome every large Hurdle this year to get to the playoffs. They are the wild card team because they won more games than the Giants, the Braves, the Marlins and everyone in the Central Division. The Rockies set a franchise record for wins with 92, besting the 90 they produced in 2007 when they were truly the Cinderella story of that season. They did so despite a pitching staff that ranked 17th out of 26 teams and a defense that ranked in the same exact slot. How did that happen?
The first question cannot really be answered as there is no way to measure the answer. Why would a team start the season 18-28 under one manager (Hurdle) and finish with another manager the rest of the season at a 74-42 clip? There is no way of really knowing why it was not going so well under Hurdle and then went so well with Tracy. After all, Tracy has managed other places with moderate results. Was this a case of a really bad situation whose resolution allowed the players to play to their capability? Or would this team have been this good anyway? Who knows. All we know is that they started the season in a huge hole and were ten games under .500 when Tracy took over. That is a deep hole. But the team took off after that including an eleven game win streak.
Not matter where the truth lies, the main facts are that the starting rotation settled down and had a good season 1-5, which no team can state. Their offense, largely due to a resurgence in Tulowitzki. And their closer, Huston Street, turned it on after a truly abysmal start. Let's start with the rotation.
The Rockies have five starters that made all but seven starts for the team. In other words, they each took the ball during their turn and stayed healthy and stayed moderately effective. You can't look at any other playoff team and say that. The Yankees have certainly featured some adventures in their rotation as have the Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, Angels, Cardinals and Twins. The five (Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Marquis, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Ubaldo Jiminez) are not spectacular by any stretch. Three of the five walked over 80 batters this year. Only one had a WHIP under 1.350. Only one (Hammel) had a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio. But the key for these five are that they took the ball every five days all year and kept their team in the game while the offense won the game.
The offense is unfortunately, still defined by Coors Field. Humidor or no, the Rockies had an OPS at home of .849 and only .718 on the road. Compare that to the Yankees who went .858 at home and .822 on the road. The Rockies' batting average and OBP were 50 points higher at home. Their slugging percentage was 83 points higher at Coors. Star shortstop, Troy Trevor Tulowitzki is a prime example. He is Hanley Ramirez at home and well, Troy Tulowitzki on the road. It's a sad fact that Holliday has the ability to overcome with the Cardinals while Todd Helton may never be taken seriously as the star he has been.
But the fact remains that the Rockies finished second in the National League in runs scored, first in walks and OPS, third in doubles, first in triples and second in home runs. They are patient at the plate and will wear out the opposing starter. Five of their regular eight position players finished well over 100 OPS+. Their only positional weakness at bat they have are at catcher, second base and third base.
Huston Street had a good year after a bad start. Street struggled last year, so much so that when the year began, Manual Corpas won the closing job. Corpas struggled immediately and the two were again switched. Much of the success of the team this year can be given to Street who was very good for the last three quarters of the season. And it's a good thing because he didn't have much company in the bullpen. Daley and Morales were adequate. Corpas and Embree were terrible. The team got a late boost by the unlikely trio of Josh Fogg, Jose Contreras and Rafael Betancourt down the stretch. All three were spectacular down the stretch. Betancourt was really effective and finished with a 1.78 ERA in 32 appearances.
The Rockies' fielding needs to improve. Placing 17th out of 26 teams in defensive efficiency is not going to cut it. Tulowitzki had a very good season in the field. The tandem of Iannetta and Torrealba really struggle to throw out runners. Iannetta finished at 26% and Torrealba at a Varitek-like 14%. Watching him during the playoffs, Torrealba's mechanics seem to be most at fault. He is not in a good position to throw and he looks awkward.
The Rockies best prospect already broke into the majors this year and that was Dexter Fowler. Fowler had a successful rookie campaign even though he tailed off toward the end of the year at the plate. He has really anchored down the outfield (goodbye Willy Tavares) and should be an effective player for years to come. He shows good patience at the plate and his power numbers should increase along with his batting average.
Other than Fowler, there isn't much in the Rockies' pipeline. Dhoulys Chacin is a five-star prospect and could get a chance to break into the rotation next year, especially if Marquis walks during free agency.
The Rockies will go as far as their pitching will take them. It would seem difficult for their current rotation to duplicate the amazing durability and stability they provided this year. Jiminez and De La Rosa are good talents and should get better barring injury. It is hard to see them winning more than 88 games next year. But then again, it was hard seeing them win a game against the Phillies and look at that!
Is THIS the Year?
For years, the fans in California, when discussing Mike Scioscia as a manager, maintain that you can't claim the Angels' manager is among the elite if year after year he can't get his team beyond Boston in the playoffs. That may or may not be fair but it is understandable when each year brings hope only to have it dashed by the Red Sox. One win doesn't make it over by any means, but it is a huge step.
In all those meetings between the two teams, the Red Sox had the better team. So it really isn't a manager issue. Scioscia is about as solid a manager as there is. Even though the division series doesn't always mean the best team wins thanks to its five game format. A team can ride three horses for pitchers through a hot period and win a short series. That's why the division series should be seven games and not five (and eliminate the off days!). But in the Angels/Red Sox cases, the best team did win.
It really looks like the Angels are the best team among the two this year. The Red Sox have suddenly become an old, poor fielding team that can be had by good pitching and superior defense. Last night was a perfect example. John Lackey is a darn good pitcher. But he looked like a Lincecum last night against the futility of the Red Sox lineup. And Jason Bay and Mike Lowell made errors that point out their weaknesses on defense. The Angels simply outplayed their opponent. It wasn't even close.
Now the Red Sox need a vintage Beckett appearance to avoid being in an unfamiliar hole. Well, it's not that unfamiliar for anyone old enough to remember the Dave Henderson homer year. Apologies for bringing that up. But this may very well be the Angels' year to overcome their nemesis.
In all those meetings between the two teams, the Red Sox had the better team. So it really isn't a manager issue. Scioscia is about as solid a manager as there is. Even though the division series doesn't always mean the best team wins thanks to its five game format. A team can ride three horses for pitchers through a hot period and win a short series. That's why the division series should be seven games and not five (and eliminate the off days!). But in the Angels/Red Sox cases, the best team did win.
It really looks like the Angels are the best team among the two this year. The Red Sox have suddenly become an old, poor fielding team that can be had by good pitching and superior defense. Last night was a perfect example. John Lackey is a darn good pitcher. But he looked like a Lincecum last night against the futility of the Red Sox lineup. And Jason Bay and Mike Lowell made errors that point out their weaknesses on defense. The Angels simply outplayed their opponent. It wasn't even close.
Now the Red Sox need a vintage Beckett appearance to avoid being in an unfamiliar hole. Well, it's not that unfamiliar for anyone old enough to remember the Dave Henderson homer year. Apologies for bringing that up. But this may very well be the Angels' year to overcome their nemesis.
Isn't that Manager a Genius?
The division series between the Cardinals and the Dodgers features two of the most successful managers in the history of baseball: Joe Torre and Tony LaRussa. Both are prized for different reasons. LaRussa is the mad genius who makes all the right moves and thinks of things nobody else would. Joe Torre is the calm in the storm, the man you follow into battle, the kindly respected man who gets his team to play for him. Each one of these supposed traits would be pulled out of the cliche bag depending on which of these great managers won the game.
When it comes down to the game and the series and the championship, all a manager can really do is put his best players out on the field and put them in the best position to succeed. Obviously, both managers are good at that. Ultimately, it all boils down to how the players perform when all the plans are put in motion.
At this point in the season, both managers have set patterns in place. They know who they want to come in from the bullpen in what situation. They know what match ups work best for what hitters and pitchers. There are no surprises. But it will be no surprise that since Torre brought in Broxton in the eighth and Sherrill in the ninth (which he has done several times this year based on match ups), Torre will win the genius award for this game and will have bested the great genius, Tony LaRussa.
The reality is that Broxton and Sherrill did their jobs and Franklin did not. No genius required.
When it comes down to the game and the series and the championship, all a manager can really do is put his best players out on the field and put them in the best position to succeed. Obviously, both managers are good at that. Ultimately, it all boils down to how the players perform when all the plans are put in motion.
At this point in the season, both managers have set patterns in place. They know who they want to come in from the bullpen in what situation. They know what match ups work best for what hitters and pitchers. There are no surprises. But it will be no surprise that since Torre brought in Broxton in the eighth and Sherrill in the ninth (which he has done several times this year based on match ups), Torre will win the genius award for this game and will have bested the great genius, Tony LaRussa.
The reality is that Broxton and Sherrill did their jobs and Franklin did not. No genius required.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
San Francisco Giants - 2009 Debrief
The Giants improved sixteen games in the won-loss column, which is quite an accomplishment. They spent the last two years hardly being a factor and losing over 90 games a season and this season, they even flirted with the wild card race right into September. You would have to consider their season a success as they carried superior pitching and great defense to 88 wins. Now if only they could get some offense besides Sandoval.
The offense is what kept this team from staying in contention. It really has been going on for quite some time too. Before, it was Barry Bonds and a cast of lesser beings. It's no different now with Pablo Sandoval and a cast of lesser beings. Sandoval, who had an outstanding and break out season, accumulated a 144 OPS+. Nobody else among the starters finished higher than 96. The team finished dead last in OBP and OPS, next to last in slugging and of course, last in runs scored. Benjie Molina walked 13 times in over 500 plate appearances. Rentoria had a horrible year at the plate as did Randy Winn. Aaron Rowland finished less than league average. Travis Ishikawa didn't work out. Only Juan Uribe had a nice year in a part time role. Everyone else did not fare well at all.
There isn't a whole lot of help coming on the short term for the Giants. All of their best position playing prospects are like 16, 18 and 19 years old. It will be a few years before we see any of them. The exceptions might be Buster Posey, the all world catcher who, if the world were the right place, should win the catching job in Spring Training. Molina was in the last year of his contract and it will be interesting to see if the Giants bring him back. Posey not only hits line drives all over the place with good patience at the plate, but his arm behind the plate is evident by the fact that he was his college team's closer. In a short look at the end of 2009, Posey threw out his one base stealing attempt. Molina finished at 28%.
The Giants should really consider moving Sandoval to first (he is not a good third baseman) and give Conor Gillespie a shot to win the third base job in Spring Training. He's a very good prospect who has showed good patience and a quick bat. They could also use a second baseman to fill that space until Nick Noonan is ready. But what this team really needs is a high on-base guy with some pop to tandem with Sandoval in the lineup.
The pitching is all roses. Not only do the Giants have the best pitcher in the league in Lincecum, but they have Cain who slots in nicely behind him. Sanchez showed enough to prove that he is here to stay and even Barry Zito had a much better year. Randy Johnson was adequate in his 96 innings except he had trouble keeping the ball in the park. Brad Penny was a nice surprise at the end of the year. And the good news keeps on coming. Two of their best prospects are pitchers. The top prospect is Madison Bumgarner may be as good as Lincecum. The Giants should bring him to Spring Training and give him a shot this coming year.
The bullpen was good for the Giants too. Brian Wilson has become a good closer and Brandon Medders, Bobby Howry and Justin Miller all had good seasons. Jeremy Affeldt has become the best LOOGY in baseball.
The Giants allowed the fewest runs in the league. Their pitching was so good that despite the worst offense in the league, the Giants had a positive run differential. That's hard to do. Their one Achilles Heel is bases on balls. They were ninth in the league in walks allowed and could really see some improvement in that area. But if the offense can pick up a bit, that will allow the pitchers to attack the strike zone more freely instead of feeling they have to be perfect to win the game.
With the Giants' current offense, it's hard to see them improving on their 88 wins next year. So it seems imperative for Sabean and the front office to find a hitter with a high OBP to help them move up in the win category.
The offense is what kept this team from staying in contention. It really has been going on for quite some time too. Before, it was Barry Bonds and a cast of lesser beings. It's no different now with Pablo Sandoval and a cast of lesser beings. Sandoval, who had an outstanding and break out season, accumulated a 144 OPS+. Nobody else among the starters finished higher than 96. The team finished dead last in OBP and OPS, next to last in slugging and of course, last in runs scored. Benjie Molina walked 13 times in over 500 plate appearances. Rentoria had a horrible year at the plate as did Randy Winn. Aaron Rowland finished less than league average. Travis Ishikawa didn't work out. Only Juan Uribe had a nice year in a part time role. Everyone else did not fare well at all.
There isn't a whole lot of help coming on the short term for the Giants. All of their best position playing prospects are like 16, 18 and 19 years old. It will be a few years before we see any of them. The exceptions might be Buster Posey, the all world catcher who, if the world were the right place, should win the catching job in Spring Training. Molina was in the last year of his contract and it will be interesting to see if the Giants bring him back. Posey not only hits line drives all over the place with good patience at the plate, but his arm behind the plate is evident by the fact that he was his college team's closer. In a short look at the end of 2009, Posey threw out his one base stealing attempt. Molina finished at 28%.
The Giants should really consider moving Sandoval to first (he is not a good third baseman) and give Conor Gillespie a shot to win the third base job in Spring Training. He's a very good prospect who has showed good patience and a quick bat. They could also use a second baseman to fill that space until Nick Noonan is ready. But what this team really needs is a high on-base guy with some pop to tandem with Sandoval in the lineup.
The pitching is all roses. Not only do the Giants have the best pitcher in the league in Lincecum, but they have Cain who slots in nicely behind him. Sanchez showed enough to prove that he is here to stay and even Barry Zito had a much better year. Randy Johnson was adequate in his 96 innings except he had trouble keeping the ball in the park. Brad Penny was a nice surprise at the end of the year. And the good news keeps on coming. Two of their best prospects are pitchers. The top prospect is Madison Bumgarner may be as good as Lincecum. The Giants should bring him to Spring Training and give him a shot this coming year.
The bullpen was good for the Giants too. Brian Wilson has become a good closer and Brandon Medders, Bobby Howry and Justin Miller all had good seasons. Jeremy Affeldt has become the best LOOGY in baseball.
The Giants allowed the fewest runs in the league. Their pitching was so good that despite the worst offense in the league, the Giants had a positive run differential. That's hard to do. Their one Achilles Heel is bases on balls. They were ninth in the league in walks allowed and could really see some improvement in that area. But if the offense can pick up a bit, that will allow the pitchers to attack the strike zone more freely instead of feeling they have to be perfect to win the game.
With the Giants' current offense, it's hard to see them improving on their 88 wins next year. So it seems imperative for Sabean and the front office to find a hitter with a high OBP to help them move up in the win category.
Phillies and Dodgers Take Command
The Phillies look unstoppable and the Dodgers proved they are a force you'd better not take lightly as both teams took command in their five game series. After watching the Phillies dismantle the Rockies in every phase of the game, it would seem impossible for the Rockies to win a game this series. The Dodgers, on the other hand, weren't respected by many going into their series with the Cardinals. The Cardinals had the hot team and the best pitcher in the National League. But the Dodgers weren't listening and took game one.
Not to say that it was pretty in Chavez Ravine. Randy Wolf, starting the first post season game of his career, was all over the place. He gave up five walks (two of them intentional to Pujols) and six hits in three and a third innings before giving way to Jeff Weaver (of all people). Despite all those base runners, Wolf only let two of those runners score. He was helped in part by a remarkable double-play started by Belliard.
And the Dodgers didn't hit in the clutch either. The two teams stranded almost thirty base runners between them and couldn't get the big hit. The Dodgers showed their superiority in the bullpen and that was the main difference in the game.
It was surprising to see Carpenter struggle. He left so many pitches in the heart of the strike zone, one had to wonder how he had as brilliant a season as he had. There is a real possibility that Carpenter is spent a bit after pitching all season when he had pitched so few innings the two years before. Fatigue may be a big factor here.
In Philadelphia, those fans were awesome with a sea of towels and the fans got treated to a first class performance by the Phillies. Cliff Lee looked unflappable and unhittable for most of the game. He's a funny pitcher where sometimes he looks untouchable and other times, he just gets torched. There doesn't seem to be an in between with him. Fortunately, it was his A game against the Rockies, who looked over matched against the Phillies.
In a side note, the Phillies should shut up about playing two day games to start the playoffs. Geez, of all the silly things to complain about. Jim Tracy, the manager of the Rockies had the right take on the thing. His comment, "I'm just glad we're playing these games. I don't care what time they start." That's the right attitude. Enjoy the ride, folks. It doesn't come to everyone.
Not to say that it was pretty in Chavez Ravine. Randy Wolf, starting the first post season game of his career, was all over the place. He gave up five walks (two of them intentional to Pujols) and six hits in three and a third innings before giving way to Jeff Weaver (of all people). Despite all those base runners, Wolf only let two of those runners score. He was helped in part by a remarkable double-play started by Belliard.
And the Dodgers didn't hit in the clutch either. The two teams stranded almost thirty base runners between them and couldn't get the big hit. The Dodgers showed their superiority in the bullpen and that was the main difference in the game.
It was surprising to see Carpenter struggle. He left so many pitches in the heart of the strike zone, one had to wonder how he had as brilliant a season as he had. There is a real possibility that Carpenter is spent a bit after pitching all season when he had pitched so few innings the two years before. Fatigue may be a big factor here.
In Philadelphia, those fans were awesome with a sea of towels and the fans got treated to a first class performance by the Phillies. Cliff Lee looked unflappable and unhittable for most of the game. He's a funny pitcher where sometimes he looks untouchable and other times, he just gets torched. There doesn't seem to be an in between with him. Fortunately, it was his A game against the Rockies, who looked over matched against the Phillies.
In a side note, the Phillies should shut up about playing two day games to start the playoffs. Geez, of all the silly things to complain about. Jim Tracy, the manager of the Rockies had the right take on the thing. His comment, "I'm just glad we're playing these games. I don't care what time they start." That's the right attitude. Enjoy the ride, folks. It doesn't come to everyone.
Yankees Follow Formula in Game 1
For at least the first game of the ALDS, the Yankees followed their proven formula for success. The formula? The starting pitcher keeps the Yankees in the game while the Yankee batters wear down the starter until he breaks and then feast on the weaker bullpen. Once they have the lead, turn it over to the bullpen, play good defense and the win is in the books.
The game started a little shaky for the Yankees. Duensing started sharply and besides Jeter's opening single, the Yankees looked fooled by the rookie Twins' starter. Meanwhile, the Twins nicked Sabathia for three straight hits and another passed ball for Jorge Posada in the post season resulting in two runs. Only an excellent throw by Swisher on a shallow fly kept the game in line at that point.
Then Derek Jeter came up for the second time and padded his legend by pulling a breaking ball for a huge home run well into the seats in left. That was huge for the Yankees as they were playing tight before that. The Captain's bomb loosened the team up and they went on to score the go ahead run and then finally ran Duensing out of the game much earlier than Gardenhire was hoping after yesterday's 12 inning division clincher. Gardenhire had little choice but to bring in Liriano, one of the few pitchers that didn't pitch yesterday. Liriano promptly gave up a bomb to Matsui to center and the game was basically over.
A couple of notes on the Yankee victory:
The Twins might be exhausted. They may have played tonight on the rush of yesterday's thrilling victory, but once the Yankees got the lead, the Twins seemed placid on the bench. They will get a day of rest tomorrow and then Friday is the crucial game for both teams. If the Twins win, they will have the momentum going home and if the Twins lose, the Yankees will be set up pretty nicely.
The Fan is pooped. Too many late night baseball games lately. More posts for you in the morning.
The game started a little shaky for the Yankees. Duensing started sharply and besides Jeter's opening single, the Yankees looked fooled by the rookie Twins' starter. Meanwhile, the Twins nicked Sabathia for three straight hits and another passed ball for Jorge Posada in the post season resulting in two runs. Only an excellent throw by Swisher on a shallow fly kept the game in line at that point.
Then Derek Jeter came up for the second time and padded his legend by pulling a breaking ball for a huge home run well into the seats in left. That was huge for the Yankees as they were playing tight before that. The Captain's bomb loosened the team up and they went on to score the go ahead run and then finally ran Duensing out of the game much earlier than Gardenhire was hoping after yesterday's 12 inning division clincher. Gardenhire had little choice but to bring in Liriano, one of the few pitchers that didn't pitch yesterday. Liriano promptly gave up a bomb to Matsui to center and the game was basically over.
A couple of notes on the Yankee victory:
- - Jeter had a perfect day going 2 for 2 with two walks. He scored three of the Yankees' seven runs.
- - A-Rod came through in the clutch twice in three attempts, which is certainly good news for him and for the Yankees.
- - Sabathia wasn't outstanding, but he was certainly good. He didn't walk anyone and the rally the Twins had to score two runs came with two outs after a bad call by the umpire on what should have been the third strike.
- - Speaking of that umpire, he was uniformly bad calling balls and strikes. It looked like he squeezed both teams on should-be strikes and called some questionable balls for strikes.
- - Mauer did his part with two solid singles. The guy can flat out hit.
- - It still seems like Posada and Sabathia struggle to get on the same page. Of course, this has been the big story all week and it isn't going to go away unless the Yankees sweep everything.
- - This Fan is still amazed when a big, six foot, eleven inch pitcher can somehow coordinate all that body to throw in the major leagues. John Rauch does it somehow and is successful more than he isn't.
The Twins might be exhausted. They may have played tonight on the rush of yesterday's thrilling victory, but once the Yankees got the lead, the Twins seemed placid on the bench. They will get a day of rest tomorrow and then Friday is the crucial game for both teams. If the Twins win, they will have the momentum going home and if the Twins lose, the Yankees will be set up pretty nicely.
The Fan is pooped. Too many late night baseball games lately. More posts for you in the morning.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
What a Game!
The MLB post season kicked off in an amazing fashion as the Twins won the American League Central title in an amazing game in the Metrodome. The game went back and forth and had more "what ifs" than a shy kid in high school. This Fan's adrenaline-rushed impression is that the game was one of the top five best games ever watched with these eyes.
The game started with a 3-0 lead for the Tigers on a two-run homer by a sober and apologetic Miguel Cabrera and an RBI single by Ordonez. Porcello, the 20 year old wonder, gave a run back with an unwise throw to first to try to pick off a runner. The Twins scratched out another run to make it 3-2. Orlando Cabrera then put the Twins ahead, 4-3, with a two-run homer off of Zach Minor (more on that later).
In a hysterical aside, following Bill Simmons on Twitter, he took exception to a post game interview by Orlando Cabrera who said it was the best game he ever played in. Cabrera, you may remember, was a part of the Boston Red Sox when they finally overcame the monkey and beat the Yankees in the 2005 playoffs. Simmons' Tweet? "He is dead to me." Ha!
Okay. Let's talk about Zach Minor. In save situations this year (or hold situations if you like), Minor has given up 23 base runners in 12 innings of work. Why wouldn't you go with Lyon and then Rodney? Why risk Minor? Instead of Minor, with the season on the line, why not go with Jackson? In any case, Minor couldn't hold the lead and it was a seesaw the rest of the way.
The Tigers tied the game up on a Magglio Ordonez homer and then went ahead in the tenth inning on a beautiful slide into home by an unknown Don Kelly, who looks all of twelve years old. The Twins tied it up in the bottom of the tenth on a real bad play by Raburn who turned a Cuddyer single into a triple by trying an ill-fated dive in left field. Raburn would redeem himself later that same inning by gunning Casilla at the plate after catching a line drive. The game was like that. Both teams left 12 on base. Both teams had wonderful opportunities.
In the top of the twelfth, the bases were loaded with Inge at the plate. He got hit (or his uniform did - the replay clearly showed it) which should have scored a run. But the ump missed it. He missed it. Didn't ask for help from his friends when questioned. He just flat out missed it. Can anyone say, "REPLAY Bud Selig!" That cost a run and the Tigers would not score. Laird struck out to end the inning by swinging on a 3-2 pitch that was clearly a ball. That too would have scored a run. Which leads to another question.
Why, oh why, Jim Leyland, who the Fan believes is one of the best managers ever, why would you not pinch hit for Laird in that situation? The guy went 0-6 and personally left ten men on base in the game. This is the Varitek Effect, the mistaken belief that the catcher makes all the difference for the pitching staff, etc. Why not bat Thames or somebody? Laird has a 66 OPS+. You leave your season in the balance for that?
And the last question of the night. Why throw out an obviously gassed Fernando Rodney in the last inning? He'd already pitched parts of three innings when he is used to throwing one. The last inning, the flame-thrower was throwing nothing but change ups. He had nothing. Nothing. The loss at that point was inevitable.
But credit the Twins. They play smart baseball. They are well managed. They got the job done. And they were lucky enough to win the coin flip to be the home team for this event. It's a shame that the Tigers had to lose, but somebody had to. It was one heckova game...one of the best this Fan has ever witnessed.
The game started with a 3-0 lead for the Tigers on a two-run homer by a sober and apologetic Miguel Cabrera and an RBI single by Ordonez. Porcello, the 20 year old wonder, gave a run back with an unwise throw to first to try to pick off a runner. The Twins scratched out another run to make it 3-2. Orlando Cabrera then put the Twins ahead, 4-3, with a two-run homer off of Zach Minor (more on that later).
In a hysterical aside, following Bill Simmons on Twitter, he took exception to a post game interview by Orlando Cabrera who said it was the best game he ever played in. Cabrera, you may remember, was a part of the Boston Red Sox when they finally overcame the monkey and beat the Yankees in the 2005 playoffs. Simmons' Tweet? "He is dead to me." Ha!
Okay. Let's talk about Zach Minor. In save situations this year (or hold situations if you like), Minor has given up 23 base runners in 12 innings of work. Why wouldn't you go with Lyon and then Rodney? Why risk Minor? Instead of Minor, with the season on the line, why not go with Jackson? In any case, Minor couldn't hold the lead and it was a seesaw the rest of the way.
The Tigers tied the game up on a Magglio Ordonez homer and then went ahead in the tenth inning on a beautiful slide into home by an unknown Don Kelly, who looks all of twelve years old. The Twins tied it up in the bottom of the tenth on a real bad play by Raburn who turned a Cuddyer single into a triple by trying an ill-fated dive in left field. Raburn would redeem himself later that same inning by gunning Casilla at the plate after catching a line drive. The game was like that. Both teams left 12 on base. Both teams had wonderful opportunities.
In the top of the twelfth, the bases were loaded with Inge at the plate. He got hit (or his uniform did - the replay clearly showed it) which should have scored a run. But the ump missed it. He missed it. Didn't ask for help from his friends when questioned. He just flat out missed it. Can anyone say, "REPLAY Bud Selig!" That cost a run and the Tigers would not score. Laird struck out to end the inning by swinging on a 3-2 pitch that was clearly a ball. That too would have scored a run. Which leads to another question.
Why, oh why, Jim Leyland, who the Fan believes is one of the best managers ever, why would you not pinch hit for Laird in that situation? The guy went 0-6 and personally left ten men on base in the game. This is the Varitek Effect, the mistaken belief that the catcher makes all the difference for the pitching staff, etc. Why not bat Thames or somebody? Laird has a 66 OPS+. You leave your season in the balance for that?
And the last question of the night. Why throw out an obviously gassed Fernando Rodney in the last inning? He'd already pitched parts of three innings when he is used to throwing one. The last inning, the flame-thrower was throwing nothing but change ups. He had nothing. Nothing. The loss at that point was inevitable.
But credit the Twins. They play smart baseball. They are well managed. They got the job done. And they were lucky enough to win the coin flip to be the home team for this event. It's a shame that the Tigers had to lose, but somebody had to. It was one heckova game...one of the best this Fan has ever witnessed.
San Diego Padres - 2009 Debrief
As we continue to travel up the National League West, our next stop is in San Diego to take a look at the 2009 season. There is good news and bad news for San Diego fans. First, the bad news. The Padres were outscored by 131 runs. That was by far the worst in the major leagues. But the good news is that despite that ugly fact, the Padres won twelve more games than they did the year before. The Padres went 32-23 in August and September. They even played .500 baseball in April and May. If you could find a way to throw out June and July, they would have right there. All the stats say that they played over their ability. The team's Pythagorean Win-Loss rating comes in at 67-95. In other words, they found a way to win eight more games than they should have.
Poring down at the Padres' 2009 statistics, it seems that this team isn't well built for their stadium. Petco is rated as a pitcher's park and in fact rates a miserly 89 on a 100 point scale for ball park factors. Despite this ball park, the Padres have not loaded their lineup with high on base guys. You can understand why the Padres would come in dead last in the majors in slugging percentage. But that being the case, it's doubly difficult when you come in 13th out of 16 National League teams in OBP. Adrian Gonzalez walked 116 times, but that is because pitchers worked around him because there is nobody there to protect him. Besides Gonzalez, Chase Headley is the only other full time starter on the Padres who finished higher than 100 OPS+. Kevin Kouzmanoff in particular shows promise as a hitter but walked only 27 times in 573 plate appearances. He really needs to improve that performance or he is destined to be another Francoeur.
Two things give hope to the line up. First, four-star prospect, Kyle Banks, got some playing time toward the end of the year and got in 172 plate appearances. His ten homers and .868 OPS during that time are very promising. Promising also is Will Venable who doubled Banks' plate appearances and finished with an 110 OPS+. If Venable can be a bit more patient at the plate and improve his ability to take a walk once in a while, he can be a very nice player for them. Tony Gwynn, Jr. had a .350 OBP in 451 plate appearances and might be a decent producer batting leadoff in the future.
The Padres' starting pitching was really, really bad in June and July. Peavy went down with an injury and guys like Walter Silva, Josh Blanks, Josh Geer and Edward Mujica (who did much better in relief) really killed them. For a team in a pitchers' park that ended up with an 85 ERA+ is telling.
But again, the news is brighter there too. When the Padres traded Peavy, they got Clayton Richard, who really pitched well. Top prospect, Mat Latos (not a misspelling), got ten starts and held his own. Wade LeBlanc got nine starts and went 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA. Kevin Correia and Tim Stauffer gave the team 47 starts of league average pitching. So a rotation of Correia, Latos, LeBlanc, Stauffer and perhaps Chris Young can be pretty decent and perhaps better than that if everything gels correctly.
The bullpen showed some bright spots. Heath Bell was awesome as the closer. He was as successful as Trevor Hoffman, and yet brings more power to the table. Luke Gregorson was great in relief as was Joe Thatcher and between those three pitchers, they struck out 237 batters in a little under 199 innings. That's blowing people away! Mujica seemed to find a home in the bullpen as well.
Off the field, the Kevin Towers era is over as the GM was fired at the end of the year. With the GM gone, it will remain to be seen if Bud Black will remain as the manager. The new ownership group knows baseball, more so than any ownership group ever in San Diego and that should help the Padres grow.
The Padres will have to decide if they keep their one legit superstar in Adrian Gonzalez. But consider that Gonzalez had a horrible slump in June and July. There isn't much coincidence that they had awful months as a team during that time. Taking him out of that line up and out of that city would devastate the Padres' offense and that just doesn't seem worth saving a few bucks over. Hey, Tony Gwynn was a Hall of Famer that the Padres kept around through some terrible years, only to see that pay off when the Padres finally did make it to the post season.
Off season moves? The Padres don't seem to be expected to be free agent hunters unless it is the low money, low risk category. They could use a second baseman. Eckstein may be a "gamer" but he isn't much of a player anymore. Hopefully the Brian Giles era will be over. Both of the team's catchers don't hit much, so perhaps that is an area of improvement. But there is little out there that could help.
All in all, the Padres showed some promise toward the end of the year. Perhaps they played over their heads. But just perhaps, they may have turned the corner on those lean years.
Poring down at the Padres' 2009 statistics, it seems that this team isn't well built for their stadium. Petco is rated as a pitcher's park and in fact rates a miserly 89 on a 100 point scale for ball park factors. Despite this ball park, the Padres have not loaded their lineup with high on base guys. You can understand why the Padres would come in dead last in the majors in slugging percentage. But that being the case, it's doubly difficult when you come in 13th out of 16 National League teams in OBP. Adrian Gonzalez walked 116 times, but that is because pitchers worked around him because there is nobody there to protect him. Besides Gonzalez, Chase Headley is the only other full time starter on the Padres who finished higher than 100 OPS+. Kevin Kouzmanoff in particular shows promise as a hitter but walked only 27 times in 573 plate appearances. He really needs to improve that performance or he is destined to be another Francoeur.
Two things give hope to the line up. First, four-star prospect, Kyle Banks, got some playing time toward the end of the year and got in 172 plate appearances. His ten homers and .868 OPS during that time are very promising. Promising also is Will Venable who doubled Banks' plate appearances and finished with an 110 OPS+. If Venable can be a bit more patient at the plate and improve his ability to take a walk once in a while, he can be a very nice player for them. Tony Gwynn, Jr. had a .350 OBP in 451 plate appearances and might be a decent producer batting leadoff in the future.
The Padres' starting pitching was really, really bad in June and July. Peavy went down with an injury and guys like Walter Silva, Josh Blanks, Josh Geer and Edward Mujica (who did much better in relief) really killed them. For a team in a pitchers' park that ended up with an 85 ERA+ is telling.
But again, the news is brighter there too. When the Padres traded Peavy, they got Clayton Richard, who really pitched well. Top prospect, Mat Latos (not a misspelling), got ten starts and held his own. Wade LeBlanc got nine starts and went 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA. Kevin Correia and Tim Stauffer gave the team 47 starts of league average pitching. So a rotation of Correia, Latos, LeBlanc, Stauffer and perhaps Chris Young can be pretty decent and perhaps better than that if everything gels correctly.
The bullpen showed some bright spots. Heath Bell was awesome as the closer. He was as successful as Trevor Hoffman, and yet brings more power to the table. Luke Gregorson was great in relief as was Joe Thatcher and between those three pitchers, they struck out 237 batters in a little under 199 innings. That's blowing people away! Mujica seemed to find a home in the bullpen as well.
Off the field, the Kevin Towers era is over as the GM was fired at the end of the year. With the GM gone, it will remain to be seen if Bud Black will remain as the manager. The new ownership group knows baseball, more so than any ownership group ever in San Diego and that should help the Padres grow.
The Padres will have to decide if they keep their one legit superstar in Adrian Gonzalez. But consider that Gonzalez had a horrible slump in June and July. There isn't much coincidence that they had awful months as a team during that time. Taking him out of that line up and out of that city would devastate the Padres' offense and that just doesn't seem worth saving a few bucks over. Hey, Tony Gwynn was a Hall of Famer that the Padres kept around through some terrible years, only to see that pay off when the Padres finally did make it to the post season.
Off season moves? The Padres don't seem to be expected to be free agent hunters unless it is the low money, low risk category. They could use a second baseman. Eckstein may be a "gamer" but he isn't much of a player anymore. Hopefully the Brian Giles era will be over. Both of the team's catchers don't hit much, so perhaps that is an area of improvement. But there is little out there that could help.
All in all, the Padres showed some promise toward the end of the year. Perhaps they played over their heads. But just perhaps, they may have turned the corner on those lean years.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Arizona Diamondbacks - 2009 Debrief
As promised, we are going to spend the next several days debriefing the 2009 season, team by team. Not only is it a good business strategy (despite the fact that the military uses it), but it also helps a blog writer fill up blogspace for a number of days once the regular season ends. If these kinds of posts don't fill your fancy, have no fear, we'll also follow the playoffs through the World Series and continue to comment on whatever news stories happen to raise interest. Let's start with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the National League West.
Earlier in the year, the Fan wrote that the Diamondbacks were one of the better bad teams. There must have been something in the Fan's cola glass that day because they were awful. They lost 92 games but if you understand Pythagorean Win-Loss values (the Fan doesn't), they should have won more. The Diamondbacks were 20th out of 26 teams in runs scored per game and were 25th in runs allowed. That's not a good combination. On top of those two squares on the score card, the team was 20th out of 26 teams in defensive efficiency. So they didn't hit well, they didn't pitch well and they didn't field well. That seems to add up to 92 losses pretty quickly.
So what went wrong specifically? Well it certainly didn't help losing Brandon Webb for the season after winning 40 games in 2007 and 2008. Any time you lose a pitcher of that calibre, it's going to hurt. His loss moves everyone else up in the rotation. Haran was just fine until he lost a little gas toward the end of the season (he tends to do that). Max Scherzer showed promise striking out more than nine batters per nine innings. He's an excellent third starter who became the number two guy with Webb out. Doug Davis is what he is, which is a league average pitcher who always walks too many batters and as such gives you five or six innings tops.
But with all those guys moving up a notch, too many starts went to the likes of Petit, Buckner and Cabrera. They were uniformly over matched and every starter but Scherzer, Davis and Haran had an ERA over 6 or 7.
On the offensive side of things, 1140 plate appearances were given to Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Brandon Allen, Josh Whitesell, Alex Romero and Tony Clark. Between all of those guys, they had a combined VORP (Value over replacement player) of -31.9. That is staggering. Byrnes and Tracy hurt the most. They both come with a high price tag and were a boondoggle to the team. Granted, Tracy had injury problems, but has an $8 million option for next year. The team should buy out the option for the $1 million and use the other 7 for some help. Throw in Chris Young's .711 OPS in his 501 plate appearances and you have big holes in your line up.
Stephen Drew seemed to regress this year. He ended the season almost 90 points lower in OPS than the year before. His fielding is adequate and consistent. Not great, but okay. But his on again, off again years at the plate are baffling. He is coming into his peak years and he has to do more at the plate to live up to his billing.
There was good news this year. The Fan already mentioned Scherzer. With a year under his belt, and his exceptional arm, he should only get better. He was also extremely unlucky in that his fielders behind him accounted for sixteen unearned runs in his 30 starts. Mark Reynolds also blossomed into a legitimate slugger with 44 homers and an .892 OPS. The Fan doesn't care what anyone says, though. Reynolds should work on cutting down his strikeouts. His .260 batting average would benefit greatly if he would make more contact.
Justin Upton became a star this year. His .300/.366/.532 line for the season is only the start of what he is going to do in his career. He seems to have found a home in the outfield and he's a star on the rise. Upton and Reynolds are both under 25 and should provide a lot of bang for the D-backs for years to come.
Miguel Montero was also a nice surprise in his first full year in the bigs. The catcher had an OPS+ of 112. He wasn't great at throwing out runners, but that should improve and if his offense continues to improve, Montero should give Arizona strength behind the plate for years to come.
Off season moves? Reynolds played quite a bit at first base toward the end of the year and that would seem to be where he should end up. He's not a great third baseman. With some of the Chad Tracy money, the Diamondbacks could go after Chone Figgins (doubtful the Angels will let him escape) or Adrian Beltre. Beltre has a history of hitting well in the National League and is a terrific third baseman. The D-backs need to improve their defense. The Diamondbacks should cut their losses with Byrnes and Young and move on. Marlon Byrd might be a good addition if he can be gotten cheaply enough. Whitesell showed some patience but failed to hit. He might though with another look.
Prognosis for 2010? If Webb can come back, the rotation should be set. Perhaps Jarrod Parker, their top prospect, could hold down the fifth starter spot if needed. The bullpen is adequate. Other than Parker, the prospect list is pretty sparse. Who knows what happened to Conor Jackson, and closer prospect, Daniel Schlereth, struck out a lot of guys, but walked almost as many. Blaine Boyer looked good and could be helpful in the bullpen.
Two choice moves and a couple or three additions by subtractions could move the Diamondbacks up next year. Can they compete? Sure, if everything goes well. They have a strong core of young players in Upton, Reynolds, Montero and maybe Drew. But the team will need better defense and they will need to make some tough decisions on players that cost a lot of money without producing. Do they have the stomach to do it? We'll see.
Earlier in the year, the Fan wrote that the Diamondbacks were one of the better bad teams. There must have been something in the Fan's cola glass that day because they were awful. They lost 92 games but if you understand Pythagorean Win-Loss values (the Fan doesn't), they should have won more. The Diamondbacks were 20th out of 26 teams in runs scored per game and were 25th in runs allowed. That's not a good combination. On top of those two squares on the score card, the team was 20th out of 26 teams in defensive efficiency. So they didn't hit well, they didn't pitch well and they didn't field well. That seems to add up to 92 losses pretty quickly.
So what went wrong specifically? Well it certainly didn't help losing Brandon Webb for the season after winning 40 games in 2007 and 2008. Any time you lose a pitcher of that calibre, it's going to hurt. His loss moves everyone else up in the rotation. Haran was just fine until he lost a little gas toward the end of the season (he tends to do that). Max Scherzer showed promise striking out more than nine batters per nine innings. He's an excellent third starter who became the number two guy with Webb out. Doug Davis is what he is, which is a league average pitcher who always walks too many batters and as such gives you five or six innings tops.
But with all those guys moving up a notch, too many starts went to the likes of Petit, Buckner and Cabrera. They were uniformly over matched and every starter but Scherzer, Davis and Haran had an ERA over 6 or 7.
On the offensive side of things, 1140 plate appearances were given to Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Brandon Allen, Josh Whitesell, Alex Romero and Tony Clark. Between all of those guys, they had a combined VORP (Value over replacement player) of -31.9. That is staggering. Byrnes and Tracy hurt the most. They both come with a high price tag and were a boondoggle to the team. Granted, Tracy had injury problems, but has an $8 million option for next year. The team should buy out the option for the $1 million and use the other 7 for some help. Throw in Chris Young's .711 OPS in his 501 plate appearances and you have big holes in your line up.
Stephen Drew seemed to regress this year. He ended the season almost 90 points lower in OPS than the year before. His fielding is adequate and consistent. Not great, but okay. But his on again, off again years at the plate are baffling. He is coming into his peak years and he has to do more at the plate to live up to his billing.
There was good news this year. The Fan already mentioned Scherzer. With a year under his belt, and his exceptional arm, he should only get better. He was also extremely unlucky in that his fielders behind him accounted for sixteen unearned runs in his 30 starts. Mark Reynolds also blossomed into a legitimate slugger with 44 homers and an .892 OPS. The Fan doesn't care what anyone says, though. Reynolds should work on cutting down his strikeouts. His .260 batting average would benefit greatly if he would make more contact.
Justin Upton became a star this year. His .300/.366/.532 line for the season is only the start of what he is going to do in his career. He seems to have found a home in the outfield and he's a star on the rise. Upton and Reynolds are both under 25 and should provide a lot of bang for the D-backs for years to come.
Miguel Montero was also a nice surprise in his first full year in the bigs. The catcher had an OPS+ of 112. He wasn't great at throwing out runners, but that should improve and if his offense continues to improve, Montero should give Arizona strength behind the plate for years to come.
Off season moves? Reynolds played quite a bit at first base toward the end of the year and that would seem to be where he should end up. He's not a great third baseman. With some of the Chad Tracy money, the Diamondbacks could go after Chone Figgins (doubtful the Angels will let him escape) or Adrian Beltre. Beltre has a history of hitting well in the National League and is a terrific third baseman. The D-backs need to improve their defense. The Diamondbacks should cut their losses with Byrnes and Young and move on. Marlon Byrd might be a good addition if he can be gotten cheaply enough. Whitesell showed some patience but failed to hit. He might though with another look.
Prognosis for 2010? If Webb can come back, the rotation should be set. Perhaps Jarrod Parker, their top prospect, could hold down the fifth starter spot if needed. The bullpen is adequate. Other than Parker, the prospect list is pretty sparse. Who knows what happened to Conor Jackson, and closer prospect, Daniel Schlereth, struck out a lot of guys, but walked almost as many. Blaine Boyer looked good and could be helpful in the bullpen.
Two choice moves and a couple or three additions by subtractions could move the Diamondbacks up next year. Can they compete? Sure, if everything goes well. They have a strong core of young players in Upton, Reynolds, Montero and maybe Drew. But the team will need better defense and they will need to make some tough decisions on players that cost a lot of money without producing. Do they have the stomach to do it? We'll see.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Game Picks - Monday: October 5, 2009 - Finale!
We all got a bonus this baseball season. Two teams are going to play 163 games instead of 162. The Tigers and the Twins will square off to decide who gets to play the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Now there is a tempting prize eh? Before we get to that final game, let's take a fond look back at the picks throughout the season.
The Fan started picking games in late May. On a lark, the Fan picked a slate of games that day. A comment from a reader mentioned how much he liked the picks and hoped the Fan would do a picks post daily. Not one to let a request go unfulfilled, the Fan did indeed post picks every day from that point out. There wasn't one missed day or one missed opportunity to put the Fan's knowledge to the test. Some commenters over these past few months were kind. Others questioned the Fan's sanity. That's part of the gig. If you are going to faithfully write every day, then there will be those who like what you do and those that won't.
The Fan has gotten progressively better at picking as the season went on. What follows is the month by month and total picks.
All of which goes to show that baseball is unpredictable. On any given night, anything can happen and as one commenter said many weeks ago, sooner or later, the picker will come back to the mean.
It is hoped that those of you who followed along didn't lose any money betting on the picks here. That would have been brutal, eh? But if you did follow along, thanks for the daily stop and we'll start it all up again in the spring. But for one last time, the Fan has a regular season pick to make:
Thanks again everybody.
Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 8-7
Month: 28-27
The Fan started picking games in late May. On a lark, the Fan picked a slate of games that day. A comment from a reader mentioned how much he liked the picks and hoped the Fan would do a picks post daily. Not one to let a request go unfulfilled, the Fan did indeed post picks every day from that point out. There wasn't one missed day or one missed opportunity to put the Fan's knowledge to the test. Some commenters over these past few months were kind. Others questioned the Fan's sanity. That's part of the gig. If you are going to faithfully write every day, then there will be those who like what you do and those that won't.
The Fan has gotten progressively better at picking as the season went on. What follows is the month by month and total picks.
- Jun: 204-203 .501
- Jul: 180-186 .491
- Aug: 201-196 .506
- Sep: 230-168 .577
- Oct: 28-27 .509
- Tot: 843-780 .523
All of which goes to show that baseball is unpredictable. On any given night, anything can happen and as one commenter said many weeks ago, sooner or later, the picker will come back to the mean.
It is hoped that those of you who followed along didn't lose any money betting on the picks here. That would have been brutal, eh? But if you did follow along, thanks for the daily stop and we'll start it all up again in the spring. But for one last time, the Fan has a regular season pick to make:
- The Twins over the Tigers: In four of the last five single game playoffs to decide a division winner, the home team has won. The Twins are the home team. Porcello has been fantastic this year. But he has to pitch one more game than he should have had to. The Tigers may bring back Jackson but it's not going to matter. The Twins will win. It's too bad that one of these teams has to go home after the game. Remember, this game will be played on Tuesday and not Monday.
Thanks again everybody.
Yesterday: 8-7
Week: 8-7
Month: 28-27
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