Kevin Youkilis - The Greek god of what?

If you go to Kevin Youkilis' Baseball-reference.com's player page, one of the nicknames given there is the, "Greek God of Walks." The moniker, of course, goes back to the Moneyball story and Billy Beane who had his eye on Youkilis back in his minor league days. And then Youkilis burst on the scene for the Boston Red Sox in 2006 and was a major part of that team's glory year of 2007. But his star has faded in the past two seasons and this once darling of the analytic set is at a crossroads in his career. Where will he go from here? He is now the Greek god of what?

The first question to ask is the one that Bobby Valentine famously raised in 2012's Spring Training. Valentine's mistake, of course, was to pose the question to the media. But despite the hoopla surrounding the incident, was Valentine's question a valid one? He was witnessing Youkilis first hand last spring. Something he saw led to the question. Did Youkilis get complacent? Did his fire go out? And it is an important question because that fire was so much a part of the game of Kevin Youkilis.

Witnessing those epic battles against the Yankees, what stood out about Youkilis in his salad days was the way he played the game. He was as intense as any player in the game. He played like he was trying to prove the entire world wrong about something.

But then Valentine posed that question. Had nagging injuries taken the fire out of Youkilis? Had some nice paydays taken away the urgency of his game? Perhaps all of this speculation is hooey. The fact remains that Youkilis' game has disappeared in the last couple of years. And you have to wonder if it will return at this stage of his career.

Working in Youkilis' favor as he became a free agent this fall is the market for third baseman is Mother Hubbard cupboard-like. The White Sox have strongly intimated that they would like to have him back. Other teams will be in play if the White Sox do not satisfy what Youkilis wants. After all, this is most likely the player's last chance for a nice contract.

And teams will want him because of what he did from 2006 until 2010. We are talking about a guy who averaged a .384 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage in the .480 range or higher. We are talking about a guy who produced a wOBA over .400 for two straight seasons in 2009 and 2010 and a guy who has a career .894 OPS in high leverage situations.

But his last two years are quite daunting to those who hope there is still some magic in there. He only played 102 games in 2011 and his OPS fell to .833. That OPS still sounds rather productive and yes, he did drive in 80 runs. But that OPS was over a hundred points less than the OPS he put up in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

And then his 2012 season started dismally for the Boston Red Sox. After 42 games, his OPS was sitting at .692. He was batting .233. He was traded to the Chicago White Sox. After after a big game and a big first week with his new team, his season settled back in to the same sort of mediocrity. In 80 games with the White Sox, his triple slash line was .236/.346/.425. His combined OPS for both teams was .745 in 502 plate appearances and for the first time for a full season, his OPS+ fell under 100.

And even further indication of his loss of game was his doubles total. Youkilis, if nothing else, has been a doubles machine in his career. In the six years between 2006 and 2011, he averaged 35.66 doubles a season. In fact, his average per 162 games is 39. In 2012, he ht fifteen of them. This is not your normal Kevin Youkilis.

Digging deeper into his numbers, just about everything in his approach and results are the same as it always was. His plate discipline remains outstanding. His swing and miss rate was right in line with his career average. His home run per fly ball ratio was nearly identical. He produced similar line drive rates. His walks and strikeout percentages were normal for him.

There are only two statistical measures that have changed, and they go hand in hand. One is his BABIP.  For his career, Kevin Youkilis has averaged .322 on balls he put in play. In 2011, that figure fell to .296 and this past year, fell dramatically to .268. One of the reasons is that he is hitting far more ground balls than ever before in his career.

For his career, Youkilis has hit 36 percent of his batted balls on the ground. His career ground ball to fly ball ratio is 0.84. But in 2011, his ground ball percentage jumped to 41.8 percent and in 2012, that rate jumped again to 42.9 percent. His ground ball to fly ball ratio for the past two seasons have been 1.09 and 1.18 respectively.

And this seems to be a concerted effort on the part of the pitchers who face him. The number of two-seam fastballs thrown to him increased from 9.3 percent in 2010 to 12.3 percent in 2011 to 15.3 percent in 2012. With the improvements to the batted ball data teams now produce for themselves, fielders are positioning themselves better and Youkilis' ground balls turned into outs. He batted only .208 on grounders this past season.

It seems obvious that at this stage of the career of Kevin Youkilis, he is going to have to make adjustments. Perhaps it is time to simplify that preposterous batting stance of his so he can get to the ball quicker. Perhaps he will need to improve his off-season training program so that he can stay on the field more often.

Kevin Youkilis is going to be sought after this off-season. He will get a nice deal from either the White Sox or somebody else. Third baseman are scarce. His past performance is tantalizing and attractive. Youkilis will get a job with somebody. The question is whether he can get back to some semblance of the player he used to be to make whatever contract he is offered worth the investment. He was fun to watch and it would be a shame if he cannot get to some semblance of that kind of player.

Was Brendan Ryan robbed of the Gold Glove Award?

J.J. Hardy won his first Rawlings Gold Glove Award for his play at shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles this season. The selection left many wondering why Brendan Ryan of the Seattle Mariners did not win the award. Seattle Mariner fans who got to watch Ryan's wizardry at short are screaming the loudest, naturally. But many others are also crying foul. While the awards themselves have been considered flawed for most of its existence, it is the opinion here that Hardy's selection was correct. Let's take a look.

First, Ryan's case is built on the many highlight reels he filled this season. And there is no doubt the guy is a wizard at his position. Others look at the new fielding metrics that try to put an overall fielding number next to a guy's stats to quantify his fielding season. Ryan led all shortstops according to Fangraphs.com with a fielding score of 14.4 runs above average. Hardy finished at a very good 11.4 or three runs less than Ryan.

But Baseball-reference.com has it the other way around. That site gives Hardy 21 total zone total fielding runs above average compared to Ryan's nine. In the pursuit of fairness, B-R does give Ryan the most BIS defensive runs saved among shortstops at 27 compared to Hardy's 18. So here we have two sites with two different fielding metric methods flip-flopping on who the best shortstop was. Whenever you have that kind of thing happening, you have to go deeper into the numbers.

And there is where Hardy takes it over Ryan. Here is a comparison of the two:

• Innings - Hardy (1,439), Ryan (1,170.2)
• Chances - Hardy (779), Ryan (601)
• Putouts - Hardy (244), Ryan (199)
• Assists - Hardy (529), Ryan (396)
• Errors - Hardy (6), Ryan (9)
• Fielding percentage - Hardy (.992), Ryan (985)
• Double plays - Hardy (113), Ryan (108)
• Range Factor/9 - Hardy (4.83), Ryan (4.55)
• Range Factor/G - Hardy (4.85), Ryan (4.29)

Hardy led all American League shortstops in chances, putouts, assists, double plays and fielding percentage and was tied for second in range factor.

Hardy looks rather odd at short. His throwing delivery is odd compared to other shortstops. Ryan makes pretty much everything look terrific. But the numbers say that Hardy had the better season in the field. It has nothing to do with offense. It has nothing to do relative to how the two teams played this season. Hardy has the numbers to justify his award. That does not take away from how good Ryan is. But the award got it right this time.

Joe Girardi and Alex Rodriguez's conversation

Joe Girardi called Alex Rodriguez and according to sources, the conversation went well. As an exercise in fiction, yours truly imagined what that conversation sounded like. Click here to read the account.

Intangibles and x-factors

Players of the World Series Champion, San Francisco Giants, were celebrating last night after the sweep was completed. Such celebrations are always fun to watch, even if it is not your favorite team. These are, after all, human beings and watching any human beings that are extremely happy brings a measure of joy intrinsically. The media would pull some players out of the melee for individual interviews. One that stood out was Barry Zito's. Zito, one of the unlikeliest of post season heroes, then said the magic words. Zito said that his team had intangibles and that x-factor to get the job done. Okay, here we go again.

Zito would go on to relate how during Game Five of the NLCS, Hunter Pence gave a speech that left the team speechless and the team took off from there. That moment was watched in this living room up here in Maine. Two things were noticed at the time. First, Pence looked like a crazy man and froth was fully expected to be seen coming from his mouth. The second thing noticed at the time was that shortstop, Brandon Crawford, went around the frenzy in the dugout to get to the other side of the dugout and the look on his face suggested that he thought Pence was crazy too and gave the entire proceedings a skunk-eye.

But that was the moment Barry Zito was mentioning. Another interview of manager, Bruce Bochy, also led the manager to talk about how his players were selfless and loved each other and that this team spirit led to the victory.

The first response here is skepticism. But then again, you have to understand that this observer never watches college sports because the whole rah-rah thing seems so otherworldly. After all, the core of the Yankees' team from 2009 was still in place in the playoffs for 2010, 2011 and 2012. With nearly sixty percent of that team the same from that World Series run to today, why would that "intangible" or "x-factor" disappear? 

And to take that a step further, the Yankees seemed to have it during the ALDS as Captain Intangible, Raul Ibanez, took that mantle from Hideki Matsui from 2009. But that "x-factor" dried up during the ALCS with the Tigers, who seemed to have found it themselves only to lose it during the World Series.

The thought here is that teams pull together as they strive to get as far as they can get into the season. Those feelings of hope and adrenaline lead to a certain level of shared experience among teammates. Those feelings have an edge on them as doubts about the final outcome linger. It is only in retrospect and after that letdown never comes that those feelings lead those players, managers and coaches to turn to a winning euphoria. Only in retrospect does this euphoric feeling transfer into thoughts of something special experienced and the logical conclusion to be that it was intangibles and special team chemistry.

The other thought here is that so much of this is random occurrences. A bunt stays fair, a ground ball hits the third base bag. Pitchers long-ineffective execute perfectly. Things just happen. And yet, this skepticism brings some personal doubts.

After all, so many players, coaches, managers, etc. believe in it and these thoughts get repeated so often all across the spectrum of sports that perhaps this skepticism is misplaced. Who knows.  

The bottom line here, from this seat, is that fans of the San Francisco Giants got a wild ride this fall and fans of the Detroit Tigers had a thrill ride that ended in disappointment during the World Series. The performance of Prince Fielder does not detract from the season he had or the talent he possesses. It just did not work out this time. Perhaps next year, the Tigers can get back to this place and win it next time. And perhaps if that happens, interviews from players will say that it was a magical team that pulled together and made it happen together. Whatever.  

Game Picks - End of the season wrap up

Alas, the baseball season is over as the San Francisco Giants stand alone on the top of the baseball world. They swept the Tigers in the World Series. The sweep not only ends the season, but ends another season of the Game Picks here at the FanDome. This is the third straight full season for the Game Picks and the feature is now three and a half years old. Not a single day of the baseball season was missed for the second straight season, making this game picker the Cal Ripken of game pickers.

Somewhere along the way, the season totals got messed up. By adding up each month, the correct season tally was attained and the success rate was slightly less than last season. The post season picks were much, much worse than last season, but the World Series picks were three correct out of four. What follows is a chart showing the picking activity for each month and there is even a pictorial representation to make this picker the sabermetrician of game pickers.

It has been fun, folks, and picking games has given each day a little bit of a purpose to start each day. A solid core of you came each day to either see how stupid the picks were or to gasp and their wonder and beauty. Heh. But you are appreciated and thank you so much for coming. The picks will start up again as the season starts in the spring.

But don't think this site will go cold during the off season. Hundreds of posts were created last season after the season and there is always plenty here to talk about.

May your team improve itself over the off season and if you are in the mid-Atlantic region of the country today, please take care and we will be thinking about you and hoping for the best.

Game Picks - Sunday: October 28, 2012

Yesterday's pick was a case of this game picker outsmarting himself. The logic was right there in the form of the ALCS in which the Tigers did to the Yankees what is now being done to them. If you read last night's post, you'll see how similar this World Series performance by the Tigers was to the Yankees' in the ALCS. Heck, the team OPS in the two series is remarkably similar for the team being swamped. In the end, as the Tigers' fans sat in stunned silence at the end of the game--their first chance to cheer the hometown Tigers on in the World series--the result seemed so inevitable that no other outcome seemed possible.

The gut said to pick the Giants yesterday. The gut was ignored. Why? Because two straight series couldn't happen like that in a row, right? Lightening does strike twice and yet an old saw says it does not. The old saw was believed instead of the logic that was right there.

And so the pick was wrong. But what of today? Is the end just as inevitable? Will the Tigers at least make a show of it? Will they at least give their home fans one win? It's time to pick the game:

• The Giants over the Tigers: If this pick is correct, it will be the last of the baseball season. How sad is that? And yet, as inevitable as the pick seems, the pick is troubling. Matt Cain is the Giants' ace. But he is not an ace that doesn't bend. He does bend. He usually gives up a run or two. Well...except when he throws perfect games. But the fact that he does bend is what makes the pick troublesome because Max Scherzer, when he is on, can be harder to hit than Verlander. If Max Scherzer has his best stuff, batters are helpless. Despite their ace at the top of the rotation, Scherzer gives the Tigers their best chance to win. But that would be picking against the tide. Such a pick would be to deceive what we've already witnessed. And what we have witnessed is indeed lightening striking twice.

Yesterday: 0-1

World Series: 2-1

Post Season: 16-20

Season: 1,349-1,037

The Tigers have become the Yankees and yet they're not

After the first three games of the 2012 World Series, the Detroit Tigers have become a parallel universe from what happened to the Yankees in the 2012 ALCS against this same Tigers' team. After tonight's 2-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants, the Tigers now have scored just three runs in three games. How closely do they parallel what the Yankees did in the ALCS? The Tigers' OPS in the World Series now stands at .486. The Yankees' OPS in the ALCS was .488. How does this happen?

The best way to answer the question is to define what it is not. The first thing the narratives will say is that both teams lived by the long ball and died by the long ball. The so-called one-dimensionable aspect of the Yankees and the Tigers will be ballyhooed as the trumpet call for what went wrong in the post season. Of course, that is so bogus that we shouldn't even have to talk about it. What we are looking at is a short series and a random series of events that happen when such a short stretch of time is measured.

The teams didn't have speed, the pundits will say. But when both teams tried to add speed, it fell completely flat. Brett Gardner did nothing for the Yankees in those last two games of the ALCS and Quintin Berry has done nothing for the Tigers.

The next big narrative is that the bats just went cold. If you have a four game stretch in the middle of the season where the team does not hit, nobody notices because it is just four games in the middle of 162 and things tend to even out according to the ability of the players. But these four games (three for the Tigers) are in the most public spotlight of the entire baseball world. And so the explanation is the blanket cold bats idea.

Another narrative is that the Giants were just awesome on the mound and executed their pitches perfectly. Well, yeah, they did most of the time, just like the Tigers did against the Yankees. But the Yankees had some chances and the Tigers have had some chances and it just did not work out. Credit has to go to the Giants' pitching staff for executing a plan that is working. Just like you have to credit the Tigers' staff against the Yankees. But again, it's just a random series of events that turned into brilliant pitching for a four game series. If these pitchers were this good, they would have better records during the season, right?

But there is one major difference between what is happening to the Tigers and what happened to the Yankees. When it happened to the Yankees, the roar became deafening concerning Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher. It was so much so that the Yankees caved in or bought in to the outrage and started messing with their core team the last two games. The results were exactly the same.

The Tigers will stay with the guys who got them to this dance. Prince Fielder is one for ten with no extra base hits. He struck out twice tonight and hit into a big double play. Nobody is going to scream for him to get benched and Jim Leyland will never even think about such a scenario. Jhonny Peralta is one for eleven. Better get him out of there. No chance!

There are two things to remember about what happened to the Yankees and what is happening to the Tigers. The first is that this fluke of circumstances does not negate what the two teams did during the season or mean that their teams were too flawed to win their series. The second is that it does not mean that the two teams' players were choke artists or forgot how to hit during a short series. All it means is that when all the stars aligned just so, the Giants were able to eke out a few runs while keeping the Tigers from scoring hardly any.

And barring the biggest miracle in the history of the World Series, the Tigers and its players will be remembered fondly by its fans for the 2012 season and the Yankees will have fans and radio talk shows (and some media members) calling for the team to get blown up because they suck.

On this big a stage and in such a setting with only four games needed to win or lose a season, stuff happens. It's not fun when it happens to your team or your players. But that's what it is...stuff that happened.

Game Picks - Saturday: October 27, 2012

The World Series moves to the cold confines of Comerica Park today and temperatures are supposed to be in the upper 30's by the end of the game. Of course, that would be different if Major League Baseball and their sugar daddy, Fox, would allow any of the World Series to be played during the day. But we can't have that. After all, who needs to have kids watching for the next generation and those kids are certainly less important than Fox losing their precious college football games on Saturday or their prime time revenue stream.

By the way, just out of curiosity, have any of you paid MLB extra to have a few extra camera angles on MLB.tv? Just wondering. You're still stuck with Buck and McCarver, right? So it's not like you get a break with the announcing crew unless you are allowed to switch to the radio broadcast.

Everything has gone the Giants' way thus far in the series. Will that take them all the way to a sweep? Here's the pick:

• The Tigers over the Giants: A little home cooking should help the Tigers, even if what's cooking will freeze in the pan. Plus, for the first time in the series, they will face a right-handed starter in Ryan Vogelsong. They are a much better team against right-handed pitching. Vogelsong has had a terrific post season run thus far, but traditionally, he's not as good on the road. The Tigers go with Anibal Sanchez, a talented pitcher with a lot of different weapons in his arsenal. Sanchez has also pitched well in the post season and has good career numbers versus the Giants. The big thing is for the Tigers to take an early lead so this does not become a bullpen game. Their bullpen is a mess and will lose the game if it comes to that. The Tigers do not want to face the back end of the Giants' bullpen if they can help it. Look for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder to come up big in this one. The DH helps the Tigers more than the Giants.

Thursday: 1-0

World Series: 2-0

Post season: 16-19

Season: 1,349-1,036

Kyle Gibson tearing up Arizona Fall League

The Minnesota Twins have to be thrilled with what they have seen from top prospect, Kyle Gibson, after his return from Tommy John surgery. After putting up good numbers in the minors in three stops following his rehab, Gibson has pitched three times in the Arizona Fall League and looks tremendous. Obviously, this is all terribly small sample sizes, but still. His success is enough to believe the elbow problem has been successfully corrected and he has a great chance to be the kind of pitcher they hoped he would be when the Twins drafted him with the 22nd overall pick in the 2009 draft.

We are always cautioned when it comes to the AFL. The games are played in the thin, dry air of Arizona and batting numbers are inflated and pitching results have to be taken with a grain of salt. Well, pass the Morton's then because Gibson is killing it.

He has started three games and pitched a total of thirteen innings. Yes, ultra small sample size, granted. But he has only allowed one run on thirteen hits and two walks and has struck out nineteen. Except for the 9.0 hits per nine innings, those are pretty gaudy numbers. And they follow right in line with his 28.1 innings pitched in the minors once he returned from his long rehab.

Gibson pitched at three different levels in the minors this year after getting cleared following his rehabilitation. And granted, he did get cuffed around at the Triple-A level for the six-plus innings he pitched there. But he did strike out ten batters and only walked one in those innings.

And it is those strikeout and walk peripherals that have to get the Twins all excited. After all, the Twins loooove guys who can throw strikes. In his 28.1 innings at all three levels in 2012, he struck out 10.5 batters per nine while only walking 1.9 per nine. Those are nice numbers to dream about, no?

So, if you follow his 19 strikeouts and only two walks in the AFL with what he did in those minor league innings and you see where this piece is going.

Kyle Gibson was one of the Twins' best prospects before he got hurt. And though the team and the organization will have to slowly build up his innings again, they again seem to have themselves a prize.

Game Picks - Thursday: October 25, 2012

Yes, October baseball is always unpredictable. In the first game of the 2012 World Series, Barry Zito easily out-pitched Justin Verlander and even singled in a run against the stud pitcher along the way. The Giants would go on to score more runs in the game (8) than the Yankees managed against the Tigers in four games total. Heck, with three homers and a run scoring single, Pablo Sandoval drove in only one less run in the game than the entire output of the Yankees. What a crazy game baseball is.

You've got to love the narratives the MSM latches on to in these games. During several cutouts for commercials, FOX would show the fierce look on Angel Pagan's face after his double. What a gamer, eh? What a big time player. Oh brother.

So anyway, Game Two is tonight and a pick has to be made. Did you happen to notice that yesterday's pick called the Giants' win? Let's see if it can go 2-0 for the series. The pick:

• The Giants over the Tigers: Yeah, yeah, Doug Fister is a big time post season pitcher. He's had two good outings this season too. And Madison Bumgarner is supposed to be a bad thing having to pitch for the Giants. Say what!? Has everyone forgotten what Bumgarner did to the Rangers two years ago in that World Series? He won sixteen games this season with a 3.90 strikeout to walk ratio! Here's the deal: Bumgarner has supposedly found a flaw as to why he was struggling. He will pitch well. Doug Fister has pitched well and that will continue, but he doesn't go deep into games lately. The Giants will foul off and run up the pitch count. The Tigers will then have to get into their bullpen. Game over. The orange towels fly.

Yesterday: 1-0

Post season: 15-19

Season: 1,348-1,036

Dunn and Rodney are lazy picks for comeback awards

The Comeback Player of the Year Award is a strange animal. Basically, you qualify for the award if you completely sucked the previous year(s) or were injured and could not perform. To top off the weirdness of the animal, there are two of them. The Sporting News has awarded the prize since 1965 and then Major League Baseball came up with its version in 2005. Both have already awarded their picks for 2012. They both got it wrong. The selections were lazy, plain and simple.

The Sporting News went with Adam Dunn of the Chicago White Sox. The funny thing here is that the link was found on the Sports Illustrated site, a magazine that has long been in competition with TSN and did not even mention in the story that TSN was the author of the award. Anyway, TSN got it way wrong.

Major League Baseball gave the award to Fernando Rodney. Rodney, as we all know, had an amazing season, one of the best ever for a reliever/closer. But Rodney's season does not fall in the category of a comeback. His season was more in the, "where-the-heck-did-that-come-from," category. He did not come back. He never was before.

Let's start with Dunn. Yes, Adam Dunn had the most putrid season in baseball history in 2011. And yes, he was not nearly so putrid in 2012. For those wildly impressed with power numbers, Dunn did hit 41 homers in 2012 after hitting only eleven in 2011. That certainly is pretty. And he knocked in 96 runs and received an incredible 105 walks.

Even so, he was still only fourth on his own team in wRC+ and since he was mostly a DH and a really bad first baseman, and since he is the stodgiest of base runners, he still garnered only 1.7 fWAR or 0.9 rWAR. Dunn came within a strikeout of tying the major league record and struck out a preposterously 34 percent of the time. If you liked Dave Kingman, then Adam Dunn is your guy.

Dunn was not the best choice for comeback player on his own team, never mind the entire league. Alex Rios should have won the award. If we go by WAR for example and use Fangraphs.com's numbers for that statistic, Dunn went from -3.0 fWAR to 1.7, a jump of  4.7 wins. Alex Rios went from -0.8 fWAR in 2011 to 4.3 in 2012, a jump of 5.1 wins. Baseball-reference.com has an even bigger swing. According to that site's WAR calculation, Dunn gained four wins in 2012 higher than his 2011 figure while Rios jumped a whopping 6.2 rWAR from 2011 to 2012.

And Rios isn't the only one on the White Sox worth considering. There was also Jake Peavy who went from 111+ innings in 2011 to 219 in 2012 and went from 0.0 rWAR in 2011 to 4.3 in 2012. Here was a guy nobody thought would pitch effectively again and he finished with a 3.73 FIP.

So again, Dunn wasn't even the best candidate on his own team. But what about Fernando Rodney? There is nothing but superlatives to say about Rodney's season. But he did not come back from anything. He never was anything until this season. Before 2012, Rodney had never finished higher than 1.0 rWAR in his career since 2005 and that was the highest he'd ever finished in that statistic. 2005 and 2006 were his only two seasons to finish under 4.00 in ERA.

Rodney's lowest FIP of any full season was 3.88. Yes, he had 37 saves in 2009, but it's not like he had a good season that year. He didn't. Rodney's 2012 season came out of nowhere. His dominance in K/9, K/BB ratio, WHIP, FIP and every other statistic were unprecedented in his career. Rodney was certainly the reliever of the year and should get a top ten finish in Cy Young Award voting, but he does not qualify for the comeback thing. He just doesn't.

So yes, we've started the award season and it is already off to a bad start. The voters of the Comeback Player of the Year Award (both versions) were lazy and did not do the homework needed to get it right.  But that isn't really a surprise to anyone, is it?

Ozzie Guillen's firing was inevitable

The only question is why it took so long. You would think that a 90+ loss season after going all in with free agents in the first year of a new stadium would have resulted in a dismissal of Ozzie Guillen right as the season ended. But here it is, more than three weeks later, and the Marlins finally made the move. What took them so long? And where does the team go from here?

For Guillen's part, he handled the dismissal with tact. His tweet was gracious:

"to the fans that support me and for those who are happy as well my love and respect to you as well"

But then again, Guillen is going to get paid for two more seasons despite his new-found unemployment, so he can afford to be gracious. Guillen has a no-prisoners style of managing and speaking in his public position. He lived and died with that style and this time, he did not survive. Nor probably should he have. This space was on record when he was hired for the position that it was a big mistake and that proved to be the case. (don't you hate I-told-you-so's?).

So where do the Marlins go from here? First of all, most opinions on the ownership of the Marlins are bad. Real bad. And they seem markedly deserved. Bobby Valentine flew down there and left in a hurry after assessing that situation. It's a no win situation for a manager. Just ask any of the last five they have had in the last four seasons. So who in their right mind would take such a job?

It won't be an established name, that is for sure. Nobody is going to bake their reputation going to that pit of an ownership situation. So that leaves it for first time managers who deserve a shot at the big league seat.

A couple that come to mind quickly because of their Hispanic background and respect in the game would be Sandy Alomar, Jr. and Tony Pena. Pena would not be a first timer of course. He managed the Royals in the mid-2000's and but for the 2003 season, did not have fun there. But he has not gotten a shot since, so he is in the same category as someone who would take a chance with a faulty ownership situation to get another chance to manage.

Whatever the case and whomever gets the job, the Marlins remain a mess and Ozzie Guillen was not the total scapegoat for what happened there this season. Even so, he was not a good fit and the mistake will cost the team millions. Baseball needs the Marlins to succeed and perhaps the right new manager can catch lightning in a bottle and make it work.

But that is at best wishful thinking. But thanks for the fun, Ozzie. You were certainly different.

Mulling Valentine's words on David Ortiz

The Bobby Valentine era in Boston will not be forgotten any time soon. And as long as Valentine has a mouth and someone willing to engage that mouth to action, the stories will just keep coming. Valentine has nothing to lose as he has to know that he will never get hired to manage again. So there is no need for him to be protective in what he says. And what he said about David Ortiz is explosive. 

In case you missed it, here is the money quote:

"He realized that this trade meant that we're not going to run this race and we're not even going to finish the race properly and he decided not to play anymore," Valentine said in an interview airing Tuesday night on "Costas Tonight" on NBC Sports Network. "I think at that time it was all downhill from there."

The Red Sox, who are actively trying to extend David Ortiz, of course have blasted Valentine for what he said. The linked article above quotes general manager, Ben Cherington, as saying that he wouldn't be trying to sign Ortiz if what Valentine said was true. But why IS Cherington trying to sign Ortiz? After years of one-year deals and hedging their bets, the Red Sox are suddenly interested in tying up an aging David Ortiz for two seasons? We'll talk more about that in a bit.

And most of the opinions read about what Valentine said have come out strongly against Valentine for saying what he did. But with nothing to lose, why would Valentine make something like that up? Doing so would be out of character for Valentine who has long been known for his honesty...an honesty that has gotten him in trouble.

Here is what this observer thinks: Bobby Valentine was a disaster as the manager of the Boston Red Sox. But that wasn't totally his fault as the players had a culture of entitlement that worked against Valentine from the beginning. It is the opinion here that Valentine was right about Kevin Youkilis but stupid to say so publicly. It is also the opinion here that he is probably right about David Ortiz.

That being the case, the question is, does the truth about Ortiz make him a bad guy here? No, it doesn't. Valentine is old school. In the old school, you played until your arms fell off. You played with concussions and you played with bad wheels. That old school thinking probably ended a lot of careers prematurely. Valentine had an old school player in Dustin Pedroia. "Pedey" would try to play if his head was only attached by a strand to his neck. 

But is that way of playing and thinking the best thing for the team? Was the heroic Pedroia helping his team when he had an OPS of .538 in June? Nope. The little guy should have sat out a few weeks instead. But Pedroia is the old school that Valentine respects.

Ortiz took a different route. He saw the Red Sox had given up on the season. He saw that his heel still hurt and he knew that at least $25 million was on the line with the decisions he made. There is no doubt here that Valentine is correct in what he is saying. But what is being said here is that Ortiz did what was best for his long-term future and made the right decision. This is perhaps his last chance at a big payday. And if he comes back healthier for making the decision, his decision will be good for the Red Sox too.

Getting back to the Red Sox for a second, signing Ortiz for two seasons is a risk and yet a no brain decision. After the season they just had, they have to know it will take a season or two to rebuild that franchise. During that time, they will need to keep the fans engaged in the team. So despite the fact that Ortiz's value comes completely from his bat and despite the fact that the bat was worth the investment the past two seasons after not being so the three seasons prior, it is truly worth it for the Red Sox to keep the old hero around for the fans. They are doing the right thing considering where they are right now even with the risks involved.

And that is why Cherington is so adamant about blasting Valentine's words. But while Cherington and Ortiz's agent might take issue with what Bobby Valentine said, and while public opinion might be against Valentine, Valentine is probably right. Ortiz probably did pack it in for the season. But just because Valentine is right (despite the groundswell of opinion otherwise), doesn't mean that Ortiz's decision was wrong.

Game Picks - Wednesday: October 24, 2012

After a long 162 game season, wild card games, division series and championship series, we have finally made it to the World Series. There is no other sport like baseball that tests its players and teams to get to the bottom line. The Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants have an opportunity to win it all as the World Series starts tonight. Will it be a drama-filled event? Will one team dominate and make this a one-team celebration? At this point, anything can happen.

It is said that the Tigers are in a better place because they are rested and have their rotation set up perfectly. Apologies to those that think that way, but a short series is a crap shoot, plain and simple. The best laid plans can turn to dust in a heartbeat. Come on, did anyone expect Marco Scutaro to be the hero of the NLCS? Marco Scutaro!? And the climax of the series was Barry Zito pitching the game of his broken down life? Who saw that coming?

So, yeah. Talk about who is in a better place all you'd like. The series starts at 0-0 and neither team has the advantage other than the Giants getting an extra home game thanks to a player the team won't even allow back on the field (see Jeff Passan's column today--excellent).

The prediction here is that the Giants will win the series in six. But that is just a guess. What actually happens is anyone's guess. Whatever the case, the Game Picks will end the year with this series. So let's start it off right.

The game pick:

• The Giants over the Tigers: Call this picker crazy, because Justin Verlander is a great pitcher. But he is not unbeatable. That Giants home crowd will be nuts, absolutely nuts. Barry Zito is the zeitgeist star of the post season. He exemplifies all that can happen in a short series in its glorious unpredictability. Of course, the Tigers have a ton of right-handed bats they can throw at Zito. But they also have lousy fielding. Fielding won't matter if Verlander strikes out fifteen. But we'll see. Everyone in the world is picking Verlander to win. This pick flies in the face of all of that. We'll just have to see what happens.

Monday: 1-0

Post season: 14-19

Season: 1,347-1,036

Ryan Vogelsong's work in the kitchen

Ryan Vogelsong has already had a career that is worthy of a movie script. Most folks already know the story of a guy who was originally drafted by the San Francisco Giants way back in 1998, was traded to the Pirates where he pitched four ineffective seasons with that team and saw his career come to a screeching halt after the 2006 season. He would be lost to the world for four major league seasons. He tried a comeback in 2010 and the Phillies signed him and waived him. The Angels picked him up that same season but he never saw major league action. And then the Giants gave him an invite in 2011 and the rest is the stuff of legend. His 27-16 record for the Giants with an ERA around three the past two seasons is enough to make that movie. But now it turns out that he could also host a cooking show on television because he was in the Cardinals' kitchen all night as he won his second straight gem of the NLCS.

Vogelsong was so good last year that it seems silly that he might change the way he pitched in 2012. But look at these heat maps (courtesy of Fangraphs.com) on how he has pitched to right-handed batters:

The first thing you notice in the top heat map (2011) is that he lived on the outside part of the plate. Very little of his pitches were inside. While he still threw the bulk of his pitches on the outside of the plate in 2012, he threw much more inside to right-handed batters and also elevated the ball much more often.

It was this kind of change that helped him against several of the Cardinals top right-handed bats, the ones that do a lot of damage for the Cards. The first two are Allen Craig at bats, the second is against pinch-hitter, Shane Robinson and then two David Freese at bats, one of them a strikeout:

(courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Note: The heat maps and strikezone plots are from the catcher's perspective. The right-handed batter would be standing on the left side of the pictures.

As you can see, Vogelsong lived in the kitchen of these right-handed batters. One batter's charts that weren't shown were Yadier Molina's. Molina grounded out meekly on a first pitch fastball inside. And then he did the same later in the game after a few more pitches seen.

Vogelsong really struggled coming down the stretch in August and September. He had a 2.36 ERA in the first half but that ERA ballooned to 6.32 in August and 5.34 in September. Part of that can be seen as his BABIP against exploded in those two months. After being in the mid-.250 range for most of the season, his BABIP shot up to .365 in August and .358 in September.

And there was some trepidation about him starting in the post season the way the last two months of his season started. But he finished the regular season with a couple of good starts and pitched well against the Reds in the NLDS in his only start.

Now after his two brilliant starts in the NLCS, he has a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA in three post season starts with a WHIP of 0.895. To say he is having a great post season run would be a vast understatement. And it simply adds a new story line to what has already been a movie-turning career. After his work in the kitchen against the Cardinals, a cooking show on television should not be far behind.

Game Picks - Monday: October, 22, 2012

We have ourselves quite a National League Championship Series this season. While the Yankees faded faster an NBC sitcom, the NLCS has gone the distance. The last two games have not been drama-filled. But just the fact that the Giants were down three games to one and have rallied back to tie the series is quite amazing. And what about that Ryan Vogelsong!? Maligned for much of the second half, the guy has been huge. Barry Zito saved the series. But Vogelsong has owned it.

So we come down to a single game. Who will win it? Both teams have their top starters going in Kyle Lohse and Matt Cain. Cain is going on short rest. Both teams will yank their pitchers at the first sign of trouble. So who will win?

The pick:

• The Giants over the Cardinals: This will go down as an epic comeback similar to the Red Sox of 2004. The home crowd will help propel the Giants and Matt Cain will have a very good night to frustrate the Cardinal batters. Kyle Lohse will not have his best stuff and will yield a few runs and then the Giants will get several innings of Cardinal relievers. The Cardinals have rewritten several books on post season pluck. But the Giants, who had that 2010 experience, have matched them and will ultimately win out. Of course, this pick could be the stupidest pick in history. Who knows.

Yesterday: 1-0

Post season: 13-19

Season: 1346-1036

Game Picks - Sunday: October 21, 2012

Things were going swimmingly for the St. Louis Cardinals. They held a commanding lead in the NLCS at three games to one and just had to beat Barry Zito for their second straight trip to the World Series. But then serendipity showed up and a hashtag was born and somehow, a three games to two lead does not seem as solid as the series heads back to San Francisco. Can the Giants hold off elimination for one more day at home? Can the Cardinals ride the back of an old ace who has not won a ballgame this season? Anything can happen in this one. But what will happen?

The one day off between contests does mean that the bullpens will be at full force for both teams. That is better news for the Cardinals than for the Giants. Either way, there won't be much leeway for the starters if things don't go well early.

So what is the pick then?

• The Giants over the Cardinals: Ryan Vogelsong threw a beautiful game earlier in the series against the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter's start did not go as well. But there is something to be said that defense let Carpenter down in that first game. And few have Carpenter's post season resume. On the other hand, the Giants are fresh from a really impressive Game Five and can ride that momentum at home to push the series to the limit. For baseball fans, that would be the ideal. So this pick is ultimately a hope for the type of series the fans crave...a Game Seven showdown.

Friday: 0-1

Postseason: 12-19

Season: 1345-1036

Barry Zito and social media create magic

Barry Zito, the man most associated with bad baseball contracts, just pitched seven and two-thirds shutout innings against the best hitting team in the National League to send the National League Championship Series back to San Francisco. The Giants, dodged behind a 1-3 series disadvantage, avoided an elimination in St. Louis and lived to play another day. Zito averaged around 84 MPH on his fastball and topped out at 86. But the Cardinal hitters could not get the sweet part of their bats on anything Zito threw and lost the game, 5-0. Zito's performance rode along with a wave of hashtag heaven on Twitter as #rallyZito began spontaneously in the late hours (West Coast time) Thursday night and produced thousands of tweets. While perhaps schadenfreude for Cardinal fans, it was a magical moment for baseball as performance and a social wave aligned.

Just in case you are one of the few not familiar with the Barry Zito saga, it began in the year 2000 as a 22 year old Zito hit the big leagues for the then flying Oakland Athletics. After an impressive rookie season, Zito won forty games combined in 2001 and 2002 and won the Cy Young Award in the latter of those two seasons. The A's made the playoffs in all three of his initials seasons.

For those paying attention, Zito's numbers started to lag after the 2002 season. He did go 55-46 over the next four seasons with Oakland and was durable and reliable. But his strikeout rate dipped, his homers per nine rate rose as did his ERA.

Many in the analytic community were paying attention and went agog when the Giants signed Zito to a free agent contract for seven years at $126 million starting in 2007. The six seasons that have already expired during that contract included 2012. In those six seasons, Zito's numbers look like this:

• 58-69 with an ERA of 4.47. A WHIP of 1.404 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.58. 

After compiling an rWAR of 29.2 in his seven years at Oakland, he has compiled only 3.8 in six years with the Giants. Things got so bad that he was left off the post season roster in 2010 and it was whispered that the Giants were inventing injuries to keep Zito from pitching much of 2011.

Fangraphs.com lists what each season was worth for each player in the value their performance brought the team. In six years with the Giants, Zito has been worth exactly $30 million in performance. He has been paid $99 million. So, yes. the contract wasn't the smartest thing the Giants have ever done.

But kind of a funny thing happened in 2012. The Giants had some injuries in the rotation and Tim Lincecum fell apart in the first half and the Giants gave the ball to Zito for 32 starts. His record of 15-8 is much more impressive than the underlying numbers that support it (4.49 FIP for example). But still. Though his velocity has fallen off so hard that some of Dickey's knuckleballs go faster, Zito has found a way to compete and win his share of games. Heck, he even threw his first complete game shutout since 2003!

Zito wasn't left off the post season roster this time. And he got the ball in the NLDS against the Reds. Though the Giants won the game he started, it wasn't because of Zito. He only lasted two and two-thirds innings and of the sixteen batters he faced, eight of them reached base safely.

And then he was tapped to start Game Five of the NLCS. His team was facing elimination. Zito on the hill in such a situation couldn't have filled Giants fans with good feelings.

But then the hashtag started. And it took off. And a fan base with little else to lose decided to embrace the serendipity of their season hanging in the balance with the erstwhile Zito scheduled to pitch. Instead of it being something dreaded, it became a celebration. Did it rub off on the players? Perhaps that is giving the public too much credit. But who knows. There is such a thing as positive energy and the hashtag seemed to generate that in spades.

And there was Zito on the mound. The guy is ruggedly handsome and his performance somewhat reminded of a Kevin Costner movie as the old guy pitching the game of his life. There wasn't much ammo in the arsenal. A dead fish fastball a cut above a BP version, a looping curve. Zito says he has five pitches, but they all seemed just a cut above slop.

But Cardinal batters were jumping out of their shoes to hit those pitches and simply could not get good wood on the ball. When they did, Scutaro would make a diving, spinning play. Hunter Pence would somehow catch a ball in a slide that hit his throwing hand and not the glove and yet Pence trapped the ball between his wrist and his midsection to get the out. It was that kind of night. And it was glorious in its improbability.

Zito is never going to live down that contract, which of course, is not his fault. The Giants gave it to him after all. But if this Game Five is the lasting image of his time as a Giant, that would be cool too. And if the Giants can climb all the way back to take this series to the end? Then Zito's game will become legend.

That improbable start following the rally cap of all hashtags made magic tonight. For sure, it is head-scratching magic, but what the heck, it sure was a lot of fun.

Game Picks - Friday: October 19, 2012

The playoff picks were 2-0 yesterday and three for three in the last three picks. That is much better for the psyche of the picker, but it doesn't bring much mirth since one of the games eliminated a certain team from the post season. Ah well. But that elimination does mean that there will never be more than one game played on any given day until the World Series is over. That will make for much less typing, but not necessarily much less fun in the enterprise. More is always the merrier for this baseball FANatic.

It is really a shame that the end of the ALCS is focusing more attention on the "failure" of the losing team than on the success of the winning team. The Detroit Tigers played a phenomenal series and their pitching was unreal from beginning to end. And once Jose Valverde was taken out of the picture, there were no cracks in the Tigers' pitching armor. They had a good game plan, they executed it perfectly and they won and deserve to be in the World Series.

The series also threw this picker for a bit of a loop on the whole way we value players. One superstar, Miguel Cabrera, never seemed to be off balance, always seemed to hit the ball hard and never seemed to be over-matched. The other superstar, Robinson Cano, scored higher on the valuation scale this season, but he paled in comparison. And bad luck and BABIP had nothing to do with it. Cano's holes were exploited and his contact (when he made contact) was tepid. Hmm...

The Cardinals are in the driver's seat in the NLCS after taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with yesterday's win. Will the Cards close it out today in front of the home fans? Or will they have to take the series back to San Francisco? And the pick is:

• The Cardinals over the Giants: Both teams are pitching their weakest starter. Barry Zito had a surprisingly good season. Lance Lynn had a good season overall, but his second half was dicey to say the least. And he got swished his last start in the post season. So, from a picking standpoint, both pitchers are a wash. With that being the case, the home field gives the Cards a huge advantage and they have a much better offense than the Giants. The Cards go on to their second straight World Series as the wild card team. Ugh.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 12-18

Season: 1345-1085

Game Picks - Thursday: October 18, 2012

Can you believe it!? A playoff pick here was correct? :::thud::: Amazing. And it was the Cardinals too! The postponement of the ALCS game was a bit silly considering that the weather was not that bad in Detroit. But it did give this doggone post series its first positive playoff day since the proceedings started. And how about that performance by Jason Motte the hoopla? Electric. Of course, it was not electric to Simon Cowell as Fox totally botched the evening on all sides of that rain delay. But we are baseball fans. Who cares, right?

Weather permitting, there should be two games today. The Tigers and Yankees will both go with the same match ups for starting pitching as was planned yesterday and Joe Girardi and the Yankees' think machine will still sit the players that got them to the dance. How is that going to work, eh? Our "B" team against your "A" team? Whatever.

The picks:

• The Tigers over the Yankees: Yeah, so CC Sabathia is pitching. The Yankees still have to hit. And with Girardi pulling the ripcord on the lineup card for match ups instead of living and dying with his best players, things are not going to get better. Sabathia will make one or two mistakes. One will be to Miguel Cabrera and the other will be to that guy who is terrible against everyone except the Yankees, Delmon Young. A sweep sure is an ignoble way for a team to go. But hey, they made the flawed Tigers look like the best team ever, so they deserve what they get. Yeah, this was copied and pasted from yesterday. So? It was not mentioned yesterday that Max Scherzer is pitching for the Tigers.

• The Cardinals over the Giants: The Cardinals will continue to use the energy of their home fans to rocket them through another game. Tim Lincecum gets the start for the Giants and that could work out for them as he seems to have rediscovered some of his mojo. But his season still is a concern overall. Adam Wainwright did not fare well earlier in the post season and he will need to have a better performance this time out. It appears that Carlos Beltran is okay and should be available. That is more good news for the Cardinals.

Yesterday: 1-0
Post season: 10-18
Season: 1343-1085