Sunday, August 17, 2003

What is amazing about MLB pennant and wildcard races is how much the teams involved are spinning their wheels. If one team were to put a winning streak together, they would blow the race apart. But it just isn't happening.

Take, for example, the National League Central Division race. Houston is leading the division by a half a game and have lost six of their last ten games. Pitching and spotty hitting has been a problem for them. Pitching problems in their starting ranks are a result of key injuries. While you can't plan against something like that, their great bullpen is also a concern due to overwork.

Meanwhile, the Cubs and Cardinals had a great opportunity to capitalize on the Astros' misfortune but both teams have only won half of their last ten games. The Cubs aren't hitting well and the Cardinals aren't pitching well.

The wildcard leaders, Philadelphia and Florida, aren't exactly taking charge either. The Marlins have won seven of ten to get back in the race after a tough streak but the Phillies have only been a .500 team for quite a long time. The Phillies are sabotaged by difficulties in closing games.

Tonight is a great example for the Phillies. Leading 6-3 going into the ninth, Jose Mesa--who has an ERA of 6.10 and has given up 1.7 baserunners per inning this season--came in and gave up four baserunners and a run. Mike Williams came in to fortunately get the final out. But when your main closer has an ERA over six and your backup closer has an ERA over five, then you sweat every close game. Fortunately for the Phillies, Thome and Burrell are starting to come on strong.

The Marlins seem to have an edge with good starting pitching and good relief pitching. They also have great clutch hitting but good pitching can shut them down.

In the American League Central Division race, the three teams involved are also treading water. The leading Royals are holding on by winning only five of their last ten. Their pitching is suspect and sometimes it seems as if they are winning with mirrors.

The White Sox, who made a major charge to get into the race are slipping back the other way. They have lost six of ten and have now lost Billy Koch. That may be a blessing though as Koch simply hasn't done the job. In the amazing statistic of the week, Koch leads the team with only eleven saves. Contrast that to the Braves and Dodgers who both have save leaders with over forty saves!

For all the talk of Frank Thomas not making the AllStar team, he seems to be clogging up the middle of the lineup. Batting only .259, Thomas only has 66 RBI, a paltry amount considering he has 28 homers. Ordonez and Valentin seem to be the leaders of that club and they better start righting that ship before it sinks.

The Twins seemed to be coming on strong, but coming on strong only means winning six of their last ten. That's not enough to get the job done. I seriously doubt the Twins pitching can get them where they want to go.

The top two American League wildcard teams are also spinning on idle. The A's have only won five of their last ten and the Red Sox have won only four of ten. Then again, that seems to be a result of the two teams playing each other and playing even. Do the Red Sox have enough pitching? Do the A's have enough hitting?

Part of the explanation for all the above mediocrity is the improved play of the "also-rans" of baseball. Last place Texas has won seven of its last ten. Next to last place Cleveland has won eight of their last ten. The Devil Rays have won more games than they have lost for three straight weeks.

In the National League, the last place Mets have won seven of ten but are the only bottom division team in the league with a winning record.

The real reason for the lack of clear leadership in the races is the current schedule. When the teams in each division playing each other nearly two dozen times, all they do is take turns knocking each other off.

On one hand, the close races lend excitement to the game and keep fan interest involved. On the other hand, it's sort of like watching two fat has-been heavyweight boxers stumbling through fifteen excruciating rounds.

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