Friday, April 02, 2004

Since we must wait until Monday for the season to restart (after the funky start in Japan), we might as well ponder the divisions and how they could shape up this year. Let's start in the wide open National League West (in order of where they should finish):

1. The San Diego Padres. The Padres will be this year's Cinderella team, not because they will be that good, but because the rest of the division could be that bad. Looking on paper, all the teams in this division have glaring weaknesses.

The Padres have weaknesses, but they can run three decent starters out there and have some good players in their lineup. Here are my projected leaders on the team and a few keys for them to win:

Homeruns - Brian Giles (36)
RBI - Ryan Klesko (105)
Average - Jeff Burroughs (.308)
Wins - Sterling Hitchcock (16) <--longshot
Career Year - Jay Payton
Record - 88-74
Keys: Trevor Hoffman coming back from injury; How long David Wells can hold up; whether Khalil Greene is ready to be the every day shortstop.

2. The Colorado Rockies. The Rockies should have a great lineup but have little pitching, so expect another season of 12-11 games. The Rockies will never win their division as long as they play in Colorado. But it sure will be fun to watch Vinnie Castillo (who comes home this year), Larry Walker, Todd Helton, Jeremy Burnitz and Preston Wilson knock the ball around in the thin air:

Homeruns - Vinnie Castilla (40)
RBI - Todd Helton (122)
Average - Larry Walker (.334) Rooting for a Larry comeback
Wins - Scott Elarton (14)
Career Year - Jeromy Burnitz
Record - 81-81
Keys: Pitching. Any pitching. Some pitching. Starting pitching. Relief pitching...

3. The San Francisco Giants. The Giants have little besides Bonds and it's always interesting to see when age finally catches up with Bobby's son. But this should be a record making year for Bonds and that should keep him popping the baseball into McCovey Cove. The trouble is, there's nothing to protect him from all those walks.

Other than Bonds, the pitching is weak and the lineup would be awful without Barry Bonds' presense in their.
Homeruns - Barry Bonds (46)
RBI - Edgardo Alfonso - (97)
Average - Bonds (.338)
Wins - Jason Schmidt - (15)
Career Year - Michael Tucker
Record - 80-82
Keys: I don't see where the pitching is going to come from and Barry Bonds does not have one star around him that would make any pitcher in the league.

4. The Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks lost Schilling. Randy Johnson got shelled in his last Spring Training tuneup and is 41 years old. Brandon Webb is all that is left. You know a pitching staff is in trouble when the big off-season addition is Shane Reynolds. Yeesh. The Diamondbacks should have a better lineup, but for the first time in years, seem destined for the lower reaches of the division.

Homeruns - Richie Sexson (45) Book it, Dano.
RBI - Richie Sexson (125) As consistent a slugger as there is in the game.
Average - Alex Cintron - (.318)
Wins - Randy Johnson (14)
Career Year - Brandon Lyon
Keys: What do Randy Johnson, Roberto Alomar, Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley have left in those aging tanks?

5. The Los Angeles Dodgers. Last year, the Dodgers had the best pitching in the division and the worst offense in the majors. They haven't improved their offense and their pitching looks very, very shakey. Hideo Nomo looked bad all Spring. Kaz Ishii has lost all zip on his fastball. There is no telling how Jeff Weaver will respond after his disastrous detour in New York and Dan Dreifort and Odalis Perez could be great or non-existent. It will be a long, long year in the Chavez Ravine.

Homeruns - Shawn Green (22) If that...
RBI - Juan Encarnacion (88)
Average - Paul Lo Duca (.278) Really
Wins - Odalis Perez (15)
Career Year - Dave Roberts
Keys: Perhaps their pitching will gel, but that's a long shot.

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