Sunday, January 04, 2009

The Curious Case of Andruw Jones

There are reports that Andruw Jones approached the Dodgers and wanted out. The Dodgers reportedly worked with Jones and his agent, Scott Boras, to rework his contract and grant his wish. No doubt the Dodgers are extremely pleased to end this relationship as well. What happened to Andruw Jones?

Jones burst into America's baseball conscience when he became the youngest player to hit a World Series home run. That series, along with his other post season heroics led to years of Gold Gloves and steadily increasing power stats at the plate. He was considered the elite center fielder in the game.

Then the whispers started about a dramatic decline. Jayson Stark turned those whispers into shouts with his book (excerpt here). Then in 2007, Jones finished the year with a paltry .222 Batting Average to go along with an OPS of .724. The Braves ended their relationship with him and Jones signed what has become the worst free agent contract of all time with the Dodgers.

Battling injuries and (from many sources) his weight, Jones his stunning lows last year. In 209 at bats, Jones batted .158. That is so far below the Mendoza Line that Antarctica is closer to the Equator.

The Fan won't cover the same territory already laid out by Jayson Stark. But it will be instructive to note that Jones wasn't the same center fielder that he had been. Looking closely, the decline really began in 2000 and was in full view by 2002.

From 1997 to 2000, Jones' Batting Average and On Base Average increased each year. In each year, he stole over twenty bases and made well over 400 put outs in center. In 2001, his BA and OBA sunk by over fifty percentage points and his base stealing total dropped to eleven. By 2003, he made fifty less put outs in center and never again topped 400.

According to Stark, even his big homer years were a sham and showed a player playing vastly under his abilities. So what happened?

There are a couple of possibilities. The first is the steroid issue, which has to be discounted as Andruw Jones' name has never appeared on any whisper list and he has never tested positive (that we know of). The second possibility is how Jones has handled his paycheck.

Jones is from Willemstad, Netherlands Antilles. He is only the second player ever to come from that area (Hensley Meulens is the other). To be sure, the prospect of making the Major Leagues had to be the biggest long shot of all for the young Jones. Then he burst on the scene in that World Series and became a featured star in the league.

Consider the salary history of Andrew Jones (see here). Jones started making big money in 2000. He went from making $330,000 to $3.7 million! In 2001, he went over $8 million and started making over $10 million annually every year after 2002. Is it a coincidence that his effectiveness in most categories declined and started that decline after he started making serious money? It certainly looks suspicious that he got fat and happy and took his career for granted.

So now, at the age of 31, he looks washed up. He has recently been playing in the winter leagues hoping to revive his career, but it hasn't looked promising. According to reports, he struck out there six times in his first 16 at bats. He is like a middle aged man who suddenly has a "git-along" in his stride when needing to rapidly cross the street.

Time will tell if Jones can ever again be a semblance of his former self. The lessen here seems to be that, for some players, no big contracts should ever be awarded without incentives built in to continue the motivation.

No comments: