Wednesday, February 04, 2009

How Bad Was Verlander Last Year?

Justin Verlander just signed his first arbitration-eligible contract and the Tigers are hoping to get the pitcher they had in 2007 and 2006 rather than the one they had last year. Were there any signs that last year was a statistical fluke?

There were two really negative statistics that stand out for Verlander when looking at last year. First, he walked 87 batters, which is 20 more than the previous year. This naturally led to an increase in his pitches per at bat (P/PA) from 3.9 to 4.0. Both his walk percentage and his P/PA have increased in the last two years.

But there were positives that indicate that perhaps Verlander wasn't quite as bad as it seemed. Certainly, the more base runners you have, the more trouble you can get into and he gave up more base runners. But there is also a statistic labeled, "FIP," which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. The statistic, as the Hardball Times describes it, "helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded." Verlander's FIP was right in line with last year and better than it was two years ago.

Another positive is his Line Drive Percentage (can you believe people track all this stuff?). Verlander's LD% was significantly better than any of his years so far. If he is giving up significantly less line drives, the batters aren't squaring up as much and it would seem that he was a bit unlucky with the amount of ground balls and fly balls that got through for hits. Verlander also gave up fewer homers than in previous years.

It would seem that Verlander's lack of success last year was a result of more walks, worse fielding and less luck than in previous years. The first two can be improved (and the Tigers should have a better shortstop at least). The latter should be subject to the law of averages. Bottom line: Expect Verlander to get back on track this year and post positive numbers for the Tigers.

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