Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Michael Pineda, Danny Espinosa - Early Rookie Leaders

Despite a tough luck loss last night, Michael Pineda is still the WAR leader among all rookies at 1.9 (according to Fangraphs). Pineda isn't just doing well against the rookie class. He ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in the majors right now among all starters. But as we shall see, he's not a lock for the award in the American League. Contenders abound. Danny Espinosa is the surprise leader in the National League. Let's take a quick look around the majors and in both leagues and see how the favorites are doing.

American League by rank:

  1. Michael Pineda (SP): 6-3, 2.33 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 8.84 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9. 1.9 WAR
  2. Alexi Ogando (SP): 6-0, 2.20 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 6.48 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, 1.4 WAR
  3. Mark Trumbo (1B): .263/.312/.485. .341 wOBA, 22 extra base hits, 11 HRs, Positive fielding numbers, 1.2 WAR
  4. Jeremy Hellickson (SP): 7-3, 2.64 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 8.17 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 1.1 WAR
  5. Zach Britton (SP): 5-4, 3.33 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 4.88 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 0.83 HR/9, 0.9 WAR
  6. Jordan Walden (RP), 13 Saves, 3.08 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 9.57 K/9, 4.40 BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.9 WAR
  7. J. P. Arencibia: (C) .249/.309/.479, .341 wOBA, 19 extra base hits, 9 HRs, 25 percent throwing out base steal attempts, 0.8 WAR
  8. Elliot Johnson (SS): .258/.306/.409, .308 wOBA, 5 extra base hits, 2 HRs, slick fielder, good base runner, 0.8 WAR
  9. Eric Hosmer: (1B): .304/.338/.496, .361 wOBA, 13 extra base hits, 5 HRs, -0.9 fielding, 0.6 WAR
  10. Hank Conger: (C): .239/.303/.376, 304 wOBA, 9 extra base hits, 3 HRs, 23.5 percent throwing out base steal attempts, only one passed ball, 0.5 WAR

Others of note: Kyle Drabek, Ivan Nova, Tyler Ross, Al Alburquerque and Aaron Crow.

Analysis: Pineda, Britton and Hellickson will all face inning limitations that could cut into their WAR potential. All three have extremely low BABIP rates. Walden has been a nice surprise and closers have won before (though they shouldn't). Arencibia and Conger are nice catchers with some pop, but both lack patience at the plate. Elliot Johnson is hurt and not likely to get playing time. Eric Hosmer is in a good position to put up continuous positive numbers to steal this thing.

National League by rank:

  1. Danny Espinosa (2B): .218/.321/.446, .342 wOBA, 22 extra base hits, 10 HRs, great fielding and base running metrics, 2.1 WAR, leads all rookies in fWAR.
  2. Allen Craig (OF): .340/.408/.528, .419 wOBA, 12 extra base hits, 2 HRs, sub-par fielder, good base runner, .395 BABIP, 1.5 WAR
  3. Wilson Ramos (C): .246/.325/.413, .313 wOBa, 14 extra base hits, 4 HRs, great fielding metrics including 42.8 percent success throwing out steal attempts, 1.2 WAR
  4. Craig Kimbrel (RP): 17 saves, 2.79 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 13.34 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 0.31 HR/9, 1.1 WAR
  5. Fernando Salas: 10 saves plus 3 wins, 1.69 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 9.11 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, no HRs allowed, 1.1 WAR
  6. Justin Turner (2B): .308/.344/.436, .342 wOBA, 11 extra base hits, 2 HRs, above average fielder and base runner, 0.9 WAR
  7. Darwin Barney (2B): .301/.325/.374, 3.08 wOBA, 20 extra base hits, 1 HR, good fielder and base runner, 0.8 WAR
  8. Josh Collmenter (SP): 4-1, 1.25 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 5.40 K/9, 1.04 BB/9 (!), 0.83 HR/9, 0.7 WAR

Others to watch: Juan Miranda, Josh Freeman, Dillon Gee, Mark Melancon

Analysis:. This writer likes Espinosa's chances in that his BABIP is extremely low and should pick up as he goes along. Craig's BABIP is high and should mellow out. Ramos has been a nice surprise. Darwin Barney is killed by his three percent walk rate. Josh Collmenter's legend is growing and he could steal this thing. Voters like closers, however, so Kimbrel is certainly worth watching.

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