Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Game Picks - Wednesday: September 19, 2012

The one sure prediction from yesterday's Game Picks was the weather on the East Coast. Said it would wreck havoc on games and it did to the tune of three postponements. Of the games that were played, seven of twelve were correct. The Red Sox beating the Rays in a four-hour, nine-inning marathon was unexpected and the Rays look pretty well dead at this moment in time. The man-crush of Ian Kennedy should not have abandoned him as he won again. The Twins beat the Indians in a meaningless affair that could have gone either way. The Rangers game against the Angels was going the way it was expected to go...until the fourth inning when the wheels fell off. And finally, the Marlins predictably blew a save in the ninth inning to the Braves, but unpredictably won the game in the bottom of the tenth. Then after the game, Ozzie Guillen whined on Twitter over and over about his power being out in Miami. Poor guy.

With the postponements yesterday, there are seventeen games incredibly on the schedule today. The Mets and Phillies are not making theirs up. What's up with that? Does that mean that the Phillies have given up on their wild card chase? Who knows. Anyway, there is a lot to pick today, so let's get to it:

  • The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Andy Pettitte's odds were better facing Ricky Romero than Henderson Alvarez who has been good his last two starts. But with the double-header, the Blue Jays have swapped their pitching to optimize their chances. The Yankees need to win and that's the pick.
  • The Nationals over the Dodgers: Same pick as yesterday. Jordan Zimmermann over Aaron Harang.
  • The Nationals over the Dodgers: Is this the game that buries the Dodgers? Could be. The Nationals have the far superior team and the deeper bullpen. John Lannon is a nice insurance policy to have after shutting down Strasburg. Josh Beckett will give up four or five runs.
  • The Brewers over the Pirates: The Pirates pitch one of their top prospects, Kyle McPherson, and while that is interesting, he won't last more than five innings or so. Marco Estrada has been a hot pitcher of late.
  • The Twins over the Indians: Every pick of this mediocre series will probably be wrong because who knows what will happen. The Indians throw Zach McAllister, who seems to be decent at times. And the Twins pitch Liam Hendriks, who has the nice distinction of starting seventeen major league games and never winning any of them. Heck, he has to win some time.
  • The Tigers over the Athletics: Justin Verlander might strike out fifteen A's today as he is a strikeout pitcher pitching to a team prone to strikeouts. Unless he gets tagged by one ore more of those A's power hitters, he should win. Brett Anderson looked brilliant in his early starts but is coming a bit down to earth. Even so, he is a shutout waiting to happen. Interesting game.
  • The Yankees over the Blue Jays: David Phelps pitches with a lot of confidence for a guy who hasn't started a lot of big league games. He could fare better if Chris Stewart catches him in the second game. Ricky Romero has had a tough year and the Yankees hope to add to his woes.
  • The Rays over the Red Sox: Yeah, this pick has been wrong every day. So what the heck. The Rays are too good not to win eventually. But Chris Archer is pitching to push David Price back a day, which is interesting. But it makes sense as Price will counteract Clay Buchholz, the Sox' best pitcher. Daisuke Matsuzaka goes for the Red Sox.
  • The Phillies over the Mets: Matt Harvey was predicted to win yesterday. But the rain out gives the Phillies a chance to skip over a weaker starter in favor of Cole Hamels. Pick changes big time with that.
  • The Reds over the Cubs: Mike Leake should even his record to 9-9 with a win today over the Cubs. The Cubs go with young, Chris Rusin who will be limited to 80 pitches. He could reach that by the fourth inning.
  • The White Sox over the Royals: Chris Sale goes for win number 18 and should get it with a strong performance over the Royals. The Royals are making games of the battles in this series, but can't win any of them. Bruce Chen with the loss.
  • The Cardinals over the Astros: This game is the Astros' best chance to win a game this series. Lucas Harrell is a good pitcher. It all depends on Lance Lynn, a pitcher this picker does not trust at all. But, it would be stupid to make any pick here other than the Cardinals.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Two pitchers that have had better success lately in Edinson Volquez and Trevor Cahill. The pick is for Cahill to come out on tops as Volquez battles with his control.
  • The Angels over the Rangers: The Rangers don't have as much need to win this game as the Angels do. The Angels' lineup is eight right-handed batters with one lefty batter. That should work well against Derek Holland. The one reservation is C.J. Wilson who has been better lately, but hasn't fared well against his old club.
  • The Mariners over the Orioles: The thinking is that Felix Hernandez can go the distance and will need to after that eighteen inning thing yesterday. That game burned this picker's butt yesterday. What was the Mariners thinking to send Esmerling out there again in the ninth. Stupid. Anyway, King Felix can go the distance while it is doubtful that Joe Saunders can.
  • The Giants over the Rockies: This one should be an easy win for the Giants as Matt Cain is far better than Tyler Chatwood.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Braves over the Marlins: When Ozzie was talking about his power being out, he could be also talking about his team as they are missing Giancarlo Stanton. He is a big part of their offense. Without him, Kris Medlen should cruise. Josh Johnson continues his disappointing season.

Yesterday: 7-5
Week: 19-15
Month: 122-116
Season: 1208-974
Games of the Day: 95-64

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