Yesterday in this space, Trevor Hoffman's career was pondered concerning his place in baseball history. Since that post, many other writers have written of Hoffman's career. Many believe he is a first-ballot Hall of Fame player. Others are in this writer's boat in not knowing how to quantify what 601 saves are worth. It's frustrating to only have Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to go by. Yeah, there are other stats similar to WAR to measure a player's worth over the course of his career, but they all do similar things. Hoffman's 30.7 accumulative WAR doesn't get the pitcher far in the valuation question. Are there other ways to look at it?
One method comes to mind but the Fan isn't sure it makes sense. But here goes. Hoffman pitched just slightly above one inning per appearance for his career. It's close enough to call it a one to one equation. He saved 601 games. Another way to look at that figure is to say he had a hand in one-ninth of the win. one-ninth of 601 equals 66.77 wins (601 divided by 9). Hoffman also won 61 games in his career. Again, crediting him for one-ninth of those wins gives him 6.77 (61 divided by nine) more wins bringing his total to 73.54 wins.
Now let's compare that total to what Jake Peavy has done for his career, most of which was with Padres. Peavy has won 102 games, but you can't credit him for the entire game because he averaged 6.77 innings (why is that number coming up so much?) pitched for those wins. So if you divide the 6.77 by 9 for the percentage of the game Peavy pitched, it comes to 75.185185 percent. Multiply that with the 102 wins and you get 76.68 wins.
Granted, this doesn't take anything into account on when Peavy pitched and didn't get a win and Hoffman when he pitched without getting a save or a win, but it does seem to give us the value of Hoffman's saves plus wins against Peavy's wins and Peavy's wins come out ahead. If Peavy finished his career tomorrow, nobody would talk about him being a Hall of Fame player despite his one Cy Young Award.
Just to be fair to Hoffman, let's do the same exercise for Mariano Rivera and A. J. Burnett. What? Bear with the Fan. Rivera's innings per appearance are enough over one-to-one to do more math. Rivera has averaged 1.176 innings pitched per appearance for his career. That comes to 13.1 percent of each game he pitched (rounding off the games to nine innings). If you multiply Rivera's 559 saves by that 13.1 percent, you get Mo 73 wins. You can then give Rivera credit for his 74 wins at a value of 1.75 innings pitched per win or 19.4 percent of a nine inning game. Multiply Rivera's 74 wins by 19.4 percent and you get 14.37 more wins for his total or 87.37 wins. That credited win total is higher than Peavy's (76.68) or Hoffman's (73.54).
Without boring you with the math again, A. J. Burnett's "adjusted" win total (ahem) comes to 85.77, a virtual tie with Rivera. NOBODY will ever argue that Burnett is a Hall of Fame player, but everyone will insist that Rivera is one.
The Fan doesn't know if this way at looking at the value of a closer's saves and wins holds any water. Frankly, the Fan's head hurts from doing all that math that may or may not make any sense. But even if you take the wins at face value and add it to one ninth of a win for each save, Hoffman would end up with a little over 127 career wins and Rivera would have won 158. Not too many pitchers have been voted to the Hall of Fame with that low a win total. Now where is that bottle of Ibuprofen?
Showing posts with label A. J. Burnett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label A. J. Burnett. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Impressed With Burnett and Girardi
Joe Girardi and the Yankees' brain trust surprised this observer when they announced the starting rotation for the division series with the Twins. The surprise was that Burnett is in the bullpen and Hughes has been named one of the three starters. This speaks well of the decision making by the Yankees. They are ignoring payroll and history by going with the three guys they think give them the best chance to win (Sabathia, Pettitte and Hughes). What was even more pleasantly surprising was A. J. Burnett's reaction to the decision.
Burnett fully understood the situation and said that Hughes should start. He also reiterated that Joe Girardi is the best manager he's ever played for. Look, this writer has taken his fair share of pot shots at Burnett for his performance, but this reaction is impressive and the perfect attitude for handling this situation. He could have sulked. He could have jobbed his manager. He could have done things most spoiled and pampered athletes do when benched by the man in charge of the team. But Burnett showed class and understanding and went out of his way to praise his manager. Well done, Mr. Burnett. Well done indeed.
And who knows, Burnett could provide the kind of dominant relief outings that Hughes provided in last year's post season. With Burnett's repertoire, he could very well dominate for an inning here or there. The only troubling aspect for the Fan about this decision is worry for Hughes. The young pitcher is in uncharted waters for innings pitched and stressful innings. Now the Yankees are going to add post season work loads on the young man. If Hughes gets hurt either in the playoffs or early next season, there will be a lot of questions asked about what happened to limiting Hughes and his innings. They did limit his innings somewhat, but Hughes throws so many pitches that he was often in 85 to 95 pitches deep by the fifth and sixth innings. We'll just have to see how it all shakes out.
The other impressive thing about this story is Joe Girardi. Burnett is the second high priced player that has come out publicly to state that Girardi was the best manager they ever played for. Teixeira stated the same thing last year. From what these players are saying, Girardi has a gigantic heart for his players and makes it clear that he cares about them. That's impressive and shows a true leader. Remember that Teixeira played for Bobby Cox, Mike Scioscia and Buck Showalter. Those three guys are top of the line managers are they not? Girardi apparently has the guts to make the roster moves he has to make, the rotation decisions he has to make while not losing his players' hearts. That is a rare trick. Contrast that to published stories from the fired Macha who said that Ryan Braun does his own thing and doesn't listen to his manager or his coaches and that Braun and Fielder wouldn't communicate with him.
The bottom line here is that the Fan is super impressed with both Burnett and Girardi who seem to be men full of grace and maturity in a game that rarely exhibits either trait.
Burnett fully understood the situation and said that Hughes should start. He also reiterated that Joe Girardi is the best manager he's ever played for. Look, this writer has taken his fair share of pot shots at Burnett for his performance, but this reaction is impressive and the perfect attitude for handling this situation. He could have sulked. He could have jobbed his manager. He could have done things most spoiled and pampered athletes do when benched by the man in charge of the team. But Burnett showed class and understanding and went out of his way to praise his manager. Well done, Mr. Burnett. Well done indeed.
And who knows, Burnett could provide the kind of dominant relief outings that Hughes provided in last year's post season. With Burnett's repertoire, he could very well dominate for an inning here or there. The only troubling aspect for the Fan about this decision is worry for Hughes. The young pitcher is in uncharted waters for innings pitched and stressful innings. Now the Yankees are going to add post season work loads on the young man. If Hughes gets hurt either in the playoffs or early next season, there will be a lot of questions asked about what happened to limiting Hughes and his innings. They did limit his innings somewhat, but Hughes throws so many pitches that he was often in 85 to 95 pitches deep by the fifth and sixth innings. We'll just have to see how it all shakes out.
The other impressive thing about this story is Joe Girardi. Burnett is the second high priced player that has come out publicly to state that Girardi was the best manager they ever played for. Teixeira stated the same thing last year. From what these players are saying, Girardi has a gigantic heart for his players and makes it clear that he cares about them. That's impressive and shows a true leader. Remember that Teixeira played for Bobby Cox, Mike Scioscia and Buck Showalter. Those three guys are top of the line managers are they not? Girardi apparently has the guts to make the roster moves he has to make, the rotation decisions he has to make while not losing his players' hearts. That is a rare trick. Contrast that to published stories from the fired Macha who said that Ryan Braun does his own thing and doesn't listen to his manager or his coaches and that Braun and Fielder wouldn't communicate with him.
The bottom line here is that the Fan is super impressed with both Burnett and Girardi who seem to be men full of grace and maturity in a game that rarely exhibits either trait.
Thursday, September 02, 2010
The Weathermen
Weathermen have a pretty interesting job. They get a first row seat on what is going on in the world and get to watch it happen. Sometimes though, weathermen get bored. Take Florida for example. How many different ways can you say each and every day that it will be partly sunny today and 89 with a chance of afternoon showers? It's no wonder then that they get all excited about a hurricane. Weathermen love hurricanes like firemen love fires. They get beside themselves with giddiness at the projections and possible paths the storm might take. Of course, they do the obligatory duty of telling people to get out of harms way, but you understand and get the feeling that secretly, they hope a big one hits so they can be a part of it. Meanwhile, the viewers...the ones that rely on those weathermen are fraught with concern and watch with impending doom hanging over their heads and drape themselves over every word the weathermen say.
Wait. You thought this was a baseball blog. It is! The first paragraph is a simple English ploy called an analogy. What the first paragraph set up was the idea that the ESPN announcers tonight, O'Brien and Sutcliffe, were the weathermen. The storm they were watching was A. J. Burnett. They dragged up the dirty numbers and pored over all the data. They watched for every indication that Burnett might turn into a fury of base runners and runs for the Oakland Athletics. You could almost sense their anticipation. They were hanging on every Burnett pitch. Sutcliffe was the senior weather guy like that guy they go to in Florida with the bald head that always has the charts in his hand. Sutcliffe was just waiting for the perfect storm to blow onshore.
Yankee fans, meanwhile, were those viewers fraught with concern and were watching with impending doom hanging over their heads and cringed at every statistic and every base runner. Was another game with Burnett pitching going to go down the drain? And you can't blame the fans a bit. Burnett had such a bad August (and June) that the worst could only be expected. Imagine the hope that built inside them after the first two scoreless innings. But then the storm started veering back in dangerous waters. Kouzmanoff hit a two run homer. Burnett walked the guy after that. A few innings later, he again got in trouble and allowed a third run to score making it a 4-3 Yankee lead. The weathermen were ready to sound the warnings. They were ready. The viewers were tied up in knots.
And then a funny thing happened. The storm passed over. Somehow the storm called Burnett got through the sixth inning and the Yankees were still ahead. The viewers looked up at the skies and saw stars instead of clouds. It was a miracle!
But you could tell some of the wind had gone out of the weatherman's sails. They said at the end of Burnett's night that he struggled for six innings. They didn't understand how the storm didn't hit the mainland. But knowing the fine line between taste and poor taste, a weatherman would never state that he was disappointed that the big storm didn't happen. They trot out the old line of, "dodging a bullet." But you can tell that they were deflated a bit. Senior weatherman, Sutcliffe, did, somewhat begrudgingly mention at the end of the game that Burnett can build on the victory.
For the viewers, it was akin to walking out of the in-ground shelter. The blinked and saw that the house was still standing.
Wait. You thought this was a baseball blog. It is! The first paragraph is a simple English ploy called an analogy. What the first paragraph set up was the idea that the ESPN announcers tonight, O'Brien and Sutcliffe, were the weathermen. The storm they were watching was A. J. Burnett. They dragged up the dirty numbers and pored over all the data. They watched for every indication that Burnett might turn into a fury of base runners and runs for the Oakland Athletics. You could almost sense their anticipation. They were hanging on every Burnett pitch. Sutcliffe was the senior weather guy like that guy they go to in Florida with the bald head that always has the charts in his hand. Sutcliffe was just waiting for the perfect storm to blow onshore.
Yankee fans, meanwhile, were those viewers fraught with concern and were watching with impending doom hanging over their heads and cringed at every statistic and every base runner. Was another game with Burnett pitching going to go down the drain? And you can't blame the fans a bit. Burnett had such a bad August (and June) that the worst could only be expected. Imagine the hope that built inside them after the first two scoreless innings. But then the storm started veering back in dangerous waters. Kouzmanoff hit a two run homer. Burnett walked the guy after that. A few innings later, he again got in trouble and allowed a third run to score making it a 4-3 Yankee lead. The weathermen were ready to sound the warnings. They were ready. The viewers were tied up in knots.
And then a funny thing happened. The storm passed over. Somehow the storm called Burnett got through the sixth inning and the Yankees were still ahead. The viewers looked up at the skies and saw stars instead of clouds. It was a miracle!
But you could tell some of the wind had gone out of the weatherman's sails. They said at the end of Burnett's night that he struggled for six innings. They didn't understand how the storm didn't hit the mainland. But knowing the fine line between taste and poor taste, a weatherman would never state that he was disappointed that the big storm didn't happen. They trot out the old line of, "dodging a bullet." But you can tell that they were deflated a bit. Senior weatherman, Sutcliffe, did, somewhat begrudgingly mention at the end of the game that Burnett can build on the victory.
For the viewers, it was akin to walking out of the in-ground shelter. The blinked and saw that the house was still standing.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Heart-Burnett
A. J. Burnett may be a nice guy. The Fan has no idea. He may be a charming individual and a real credit to society. No clue. But the guy is simply killing the Yankees this year. After giving up earned runs on eleven base runners to the Chicago White Sox in three and a third innings on Friday night, Burnett's ERA is now sitting at 5.17. His WHIP is approaching 1.5. He has his highest HR/9 in his career. He has his lowest K/BB ratio since 2003. He has his worst K/9 since 2001. His ERA+ is now at 82. He's just been flat out awful.
Burnett is now 2-5 in the second half. He had a good April and a pretty good July. Every other month has been horrible. The trouble with Burnett is that he has no middle ground. He has a .517 OPS against in his nine wins. He has a 1.079 OPS against in his twelve losses. In those twelve losses, he's given up 17 homers.and 90 hits in just 59 innings. His WHIP in losses is 2.017. His BB/9 in losses is 5.34. Sure, he's been good in his wins with a gaudy 0.74 ERA. But good golly, there aren't enough of them. If Burnett could just be average in all of his starts, the Yankees would be better off. Because when Burnett is not good, the Yankees have no shot to win. Even Freddie Garcia would be an improvement. Is Millwood available? Sheesh.
Burnett is now 2-5 in the second half. He had a good April and a pretty good July. Every other month has been horrible. The trouble with Burnett is that he has no middle ground. He has a .517 OPS against in his nine wins. He has a 1.079 OPS against in his twelve losses. In those twelve losses, he's given up 17 homers.and 90 hits in just 59 innings. His WHIP in losses is 2.017. His BB/9 in losses is 5.34. Sure, he's been good in his wins with a gaudy 0.74 ERA. But good golly, there aren't enough of them. If Burnett could just be average in all of his starts, the Yankees would be better off. Because when Burnett is not good, the Yankees have no shot to win. Even Freddie Garcia would be an improvement. Is Millwood available? Sheesh.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
A. J. Burnett Is Killing the Yankees
The arguments on whether A. J. Burnett is just flat out bad, or only bad when he pitches to Jorge Posada is a moot point. Jorge Posada is the Yankee's number one catcher. And if Burnett can't pitch to him, he is of little use to the Yankees. Watching the game on Monday night in Arizona, Burnett and Posada looked like a couple of middle high students dancing together for the first time. But why would that mean that Burnett couldn't hit a target if he had a hundred chances to do so? It's hard to fathom.
Burnett has pitched 39.2 innings to Francisco Cervelli. his ERA is 3.63 and his OPS against is .705. He's pitched to Posada for 28.2 (not including Monday night's fiasco) and his ERA with Jorge is 4.71 and his OPS against is .866. This is certainly not an isolated statistic. Overall, for the Yankee pitchers in 2010, they have an ERA of 3.54 with an OPS against of .680 when pitching to Cervelli and a 4.26 ERA with a .725 OPS against with Posada. That makes this year no different than last year when the same phenomenon occurred.
It would be interesting to get a catcher's perspective to break that down and figure out why. Does Posada call a bad game? Does he set up too late? Does he receive the ball badly and not get strike calls? The Fan hasn't seen enough games to detect a difference. But something is different when Posada catches. And that difference affects Burnett more than any other Yankee pitcher.
Whether you blame Burnett or blame Posada, the situation is untenable. The Yankees don't have enough wiggle room in a three team horse race for two spots in the playoffs to give away games when the tandem are together. Monday night's game was the fourth straight bad outing for Burnett. The last two have been with Posada and the previous two with Chad Moeller. Without throwing any of those games to Cervelli, you can't rule out if Cervelli would have made a difference.
The problem with Burnett has always seemed to revolve around two problems. Burnett can't seem to finish an inning when he gets two quick outs. And he can't seem to finish off a batter when he gets two quick strikes. Burnett's first seven runs given up against the Diamondbacks all came with two outs and all with nobody on base after those two outs.
So what do you do about this situation? Do you have to catch Cervelli every time Burnett pitches? Posada makes a lot of money and is one of the cornerstones on the Yankees. Burnett makes a lot of money and would be impossible to trade and is too expensive to put in the bullpen. In a perfect world, Posada would DH every game for the rest of the year, but you know that won't happen. It's a problem. It's a very big problem
Burnett has pitched 39.2 innings to Francisco Cervelli. his ERA is 3.63 and his OPS against is .705. He's pitched to Posada for 28.2 (not including Monday night's fiasco) and his ERA with Jorge is 4.71 and his OPS against is .866. This is certainly not an isolated statistic. Overall, for the Yankee pitchers in 2010, they have an ERA of 3.54 with an OPS against of .680 when pitching to Cervelli and a 4.26 ERA with a .725 OPS against with Posada. That makes this year no different than last year when the same phenomenon occurred.
It would be interesting to get a catcher's perspective to break that down and figure out why. Does Posada call a bad game? Does he set up too late? Does he receive the ball badly and not get strike calls? The Fan hasn't seen enough games to detect a difference. But something is different when Posada catches. And that difference affects Burnett more than any other Yankee pitcher.
Whether you blame Burnett or blame Posada, the situation is untenable. The Yankees don't have enough wiggle room in a three team horse race for two spots in the playoffs to give away games when the tandem are together. Monday night's game was the fourth straight bad outing for Burnett. The last two have been with Posada and the previous two with Chad Moeller. Without throwing any of those games to Cervelli, you can't rule out if Cervelli would have made a difference.
The problem with Burnett has always seemed to revolve around two problems. Burnett can't seem to finish an inning when he gets two quick outs. And he can't seem to finish off a batter when he gets two quick strikes. Burnett's first seven runs given up against the Diamondbacks all came with two outs and all with nobody on base after those two outs.
So what do you do about this situation? Do you have to catch Cervelli every time Burnett pitches? Posada makes a lot of money and is one of the cornerstones on the Yankees. Burnett makes a lot of money and would be impossible to trade and is too expensive to put in the bullpen. In a perfect world, Posada would DH every game for the rest of the year, but you know that won't happen. It's a problem. It's a very big problem
Friday, April 30, 2010
Two Stories from the Yankees - Orioles Game
After a bullpen meltdown the previous night that gave the Orioles their fourth win of the season, the Yankees came back tonight and put a near perfect game together resulting in a 4-0 win. Players having a positive impact were Jeter with two hits and a run scored, Marcus Thames who went three for three with a walk and a ribbie, Robinson Cano who had ten total bases and scored three runs and drove in three, and A. J. Burnett who pitched eight scoreless innings on three hits, and more importantly, with only one walk. The latter two are the two stories the Fan has in mind. Let's start with Cano.
Simply put, the man has had an incredible April. His current line with one day left in the month reads: .407/.444/.790. Woof. Plus, he's made only one error. He has eight homers, five doubles, has 17 RBIs and has scored 21 runs. Oh yeah, he has one triple too. That's a pretty good month. After last year's 205 hit season, it seems that Cano seems poised to shatter that this year and is headed for his best year yet.
There is only one small reservation in this story for this here Fan. You can't have a much better night than by going three for four with a double and two homers. Got it. Plus, the Fan also has the month of stats. But here is what concerns the Fan. Cano got all that done on seven pitches. In other words, he averaged 1.75 pitches per plate appearance. So far this year, he is averaging 3.39 pitches per plate appearance, which is 73rd in the league. The good news is that this is up from Cano's career average. But sooner or later, the pitchers are going to realize that their best bet is to pitch just off the strike zone and let Cano get himself out. This will bear watching. But in the mean time, Cano sure is having himself some fun, eh?
The second story of this game was A. J. Burnett. The Fan called this one right on the head on Thursday morning during the daily game picks post. The Fan was going to pick Matusz to win for the Orioles, and the kid pitched great (except for Cano) and gave up only three earned runs. But then the Fan remembered that Posada got hit in the knee on Wednesday and probably wouldn't play today and then announced that Burnett would have a great game. That's exactly what happened. And that's a problem.
Burnett bent over backwards all spring and said he had no problems throwing to Posada. The two were in tandem all during Spring Training. But facts are facts and Burnett just performs better when he's not throwing to Posada. And he's been good so far with a 3.20 ERA. His walks per nine up until tonight was 2.86 and his WHIP was 1.421. On Thursday night with Cervelli, he walked only one in eight innings and he had only four base runners in eight innings. But it's only one game right? And it could have happened with Posada. Well, maybe. But let's look at last year.
Last year, Burnett walked 4.22 batters per nine innings with Posada, 3.82 with Molina and 3.85 with Cervelli. His hits per nine innings with Posada were 9.45, 7.39 with Molina and 6.42 with Cervelli. His K/BB ratio with Posada was 1.72. With Molina it was 2.66 and with Cervelli, it was 2.50. The Fan doesn't think that's a coincidence.
So far this year, pitchers thowing to Cervelli have walked 3.00 per nine innings, while throwing to Posada, they've walked 3.62. The K/BB ratio with Cervelli is 2.31 and 2.00 with Posada. The hits per nine innings with Cervelli come to 6 per nine innings compared to 8.56 with Posada. The sample size is small and you have to factor in that the majority of Cervelli's starts have been with the big guy, Sabathia. Why is that by the way? And why hasn't that been a major news story? Posada caught Sabathia's first start and it's been Cervelli ever since. Hmm.
So okay, not much can be gained from this year's sample size. But let's look at last year. Walks per nine innings with Cervelli were 2.91. With Molina, it was 2.72. With Posada? 4.09. Cervelli's K/BB ratio was 2.58. Molina's was 3.35. Posada? 1.79. The most damning evidence? Pitchers throwing to Cervelli had a 3.43 ERA, 3.36 to Molina and a whopping 5.06 to Posada.
Facts are facts. Teams win with pitching. The Yankees pitch better with Cervelli than with Posada. The numbers are right in front of us. Burnett's night on Thursday night was not a fluke. It wouldn't have happened with Posada behind the plate. It just wouldn't. The problem for the Yankees is that Posada is one of the "Core Four." He's a fixture and a borderline Hall of Famer. He's got a great clutch bat from both sides of the plate. But the best answer for the Yankees, if they were to fully admit it, would be to put Cervelli behind the plate and use Posada as the DH. Nick Johnson isn't doing that well anyway. Plain and simple, the Yankees pitch better to Cervelli and there is no getting around it.
Simply put, the man has had an incredible April. His current line with one day left in the month reads: .407/.444/.790. Woof. Plus, he's made only one error. He has eight homers, five doubles, has 17 RBIs and has scored 21 runs. Oh yeah, he has one triple too. That's a pretty good month. After last year's 205 hit season, it seems that Cano seems poised to shatter that this year and is headed for his best year yet.
There is only one small reservation in this story for this here Fan. You can't have a much better night than by going three for four with a double and two homers. Got it. Plus, the Fan also has the month of stats. But here is what concerns the Fan. Cano got all that done on seven pitches. In other words, he averaged 1.75 pitches per plate appearance. So far this year, he is averaging 3.39 pitches per plate appearance, which is 73rd in the league. The good news is that this is up from Cano's career average. But sooner or later, the pitchers are going to realize that their best bet is to pitch just off the strike zone and let Cano get himself out. This will bear watching. But in the mean time, Cano sure is having himself some fun, eh?
The second story of this game was A. J. Burnett. The Fan called this one right on the head on Thursday morning during the daily game picks post. The Fan was going to pick Matusz to win for the Orioles, and the kid pitched great (except for Cano) and gave up only three earned runs. But then the Fan remembered that Posada got hit in the knee on Wednesday and probably wouldn't play today and then announced that Burnett would have a great game. That's exactly what happened. And that's a problem.
Burnett bent over backwards all spring and said he had no problems throwing to Posada. The two were in tandem all during Spring Training. But facts are facts and Burnett just performs better when he's not throwing to Posada. And he's been good so far with a 3.20 ERA. His walks per nine up until tonight was 2.86 and his WHIP was 1.421. On Thursday night with Cervelli, he walked only one in eight innings and he had only four base runners in eight innings. But it's only one game right? And it could have happened with Posada. Well, maybe. But let's look at last year.
Last year, Burnett walked 4.22 batters per nine innings with Posada, 3.82 with Molina and 3.85 with Cervelli. His hits per nine innings with Posada were 9.45, 7.39 with Molina and 6.42 with Cervelli. His K/BB ratio with Posada was 1.72. With Molina it was 2.66 and with Cervelli, it was 2.50. The Fan doesn't think that's a coincidence.
So far this year, pitchers thowing to Cervelli have walked 3.00 per nine innings, while throwing to Posada, they've walked 3.62. The K/BB ratio with Cervelli is 2.31 and 2.00 with Posada. The hits per nine innings with Cervelli come to 6 per nine innings compared to 8.56 with Posada. The sample size is small and you have to factor in that the majority of Cervelli's starts have been with the big guy, Sabathia. Why is that by the way? And why hasn't that been a major news story? Posada caught Sabathia's first start and it's been Cervelli ever since. Hmm.
So okay, not much can be gained from this year's sample size. But let's look at last year. Walks per nine innings with Cervelli were 2.91. With Molina, it was 2.72. With Posada? 4.09. Cervelli's K/BB ratio was 2.58. Molina's was 3.35. Posada? 1.79. The most damning evidence? Pitchers throwing to Cervelli had a 3.43 ERA, 3.36 to Molina and a whopping 5.06 to Posada.
Facts are facts. Teams win with pitching. The Yankees pitch better with Cervelli than with Posada. The numbers are right in front of us. Burnett's night on Thursday night was not a fluke. It wouldn't have happened with Posada behind the plate. It just wouldn't. The problem for the Yankees is that Posada is one of the "Core Four." He's a fixture and a borderline Hall of Famer. He's got a great clutch bat from both sides of the plate. But the best answer for the Yankees, if they were to fully admit it, would be to put Cervelli behind the plate and use Posada as the DH. Nick Johnson isn't doing that well anyway. Plain and simple, the Yankees pitch better to Cervelli and there is no getting around it.
Monday, April 12, 2010
They Need to Throw Strikes!
Several pitchers who are being watched very closely opened the season with worst case scenario occurring: They threw way too many pitches way early in the game and walked too many batters. All of these pitchers we are going to talk about have had control problems in the past or are young, inexperienced pitchers. All have great stuff but can't get it over the plate. All were impressive in the spring for NOT throwing walks. The pitchers in question? Check out below:
Clayton Kershaw: Kershaw made 31 starts last year and only got a decision in 16 of them. He just throws too many pitches early in the game. Last year, the great news was that he struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings. The bad news was that he walked 4.8. This spring, the talk was that he had to pound the strike zone. He said it himself over and over. So what did he do his first time out this year? He walked 6 in 4.2 innings. He goes again on Monday. He's got to throw strikes.
Fausto Carmona: Despite the fact that the Fan has been calling him Francisco all spring, he was still amazing. After losing his control the last two years to the tune of more than 5 walks per nine innings, he only walked one or two batters all spring. So what did he do his first time out this year? He walked 6 in 6 innings. Despite that, he only gave up one hit and won the game. But that isn't going to happen often. He's got to throw strikes.
Francisco Liriano: Now HIS name IS Francisco! In 2006, Liriano struck out 10.7 batters per nine while only walking 2.4. Those numbers have been getting closer to each other ever since. Last year, it was 8.0/4.3. This spring, there was talk of him becoming the closer. But he pitched so well and his command was so good, he made the rotation. But his first time out this year, he walked 5 in 6 innings. Oh no! Not again! He's got to throw strikes.
Mike Leake: Leake made the Reds' rotation despite never having thrown a minor league pitch because he showed great command and threw strikes and let his stuff dominate. Well, his first time out, he walked 7 and threw only 57 strikes out of 107 pitches. By the way, is Dusty Baker going to ruin this kid too? 107 pitches in his first game out? Geez. But, Mr. Leake? You've got to throw strikes!
Carlos Marmol: Marmol walked almost as many batters in relief last year as most average starting pitchers throw in three times as many innings. He averaged an amazing 7.9 walks per nine innings last year. So far this year, he's only walked one in two outings, both converted saves. That's a promising start. He's got to throw strikes!
A. J. Burnett: Last year, Burnett led the league in walks AND wild pitches. His typical pattern was to get two quick strikes and then try to get cute with sliders outside. But he wound up walking over four batters per nine and thus became way too inconsistent as a starter. So far in two starts this year, his walks are down. We'll see. He's got to throw strikes.
Dontrelle Willis: We all know the story here. Willis couldn't throw a strike the last two years if the place was on fire. Well, he's made his first start this year and he only walked 2 in six innings, so that's hopeful. But he got to three balls on six hitters. He's got to throw strikes.
The Fan will be watching these pitchers very closely along with other guys in the minors like Aroldis Chapman and Stephen Strasburg, both of whom had their pro debuts on Sunday. Both looked dominant, but both walked too many guys. They have to throw strikes!
Clayton Kershaw: Kershaw made 31 starts last year and only got a decision in 16 of them. He just throws too many pitches early in the game. Last year, the great news was that he struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings. The bad news was that he walked 4.8. This spring, the talk was that he had to pound the strike zone. He said it himself over and over. So what did he do his first time out this year? He walked 6 in 4.2 innings. He goes again on Monday. He's got to throw strikes.
Fausto Carmona: Despite the fact that the Fan has been calling him Francisco all spring, he was still amazing. After losing his control the last two years to the tune of more than 5 walks per nine innings, he only walked one or two batters all spring. So what did he do his first time out this year? He walked 6 in 6 innings. Despite that, he only gave up one hit and won the game. But that isn't going to happen often. He's got to throw strikes.
Francisco Liriano: Now HIS name IS Francisco! In 2006, Liriano struck out 10.7 batters per nine while only walking 2.4. Those numbers have been getting closer to each other ever since. Last year, it was 8.0/4.3. This spring, there was talk of him becoming the closer. But he pitched so well and his command was so good, he made the rotation. But his first time out this year, he walked 5 in 6 innings. Oh no! Not again! He's got to throw strikes.
Mike Leake: Leake made the Reds' rotation despite never having thrown a minor league pitch because he showed great command and threw strikes and let his stuff dominate. Well, his first time out, he walked 7 and threw only 57 strikes out of 107 pitches. By the way, is Dusty Baker going to ruin this kid too? 107 pitches in his first game out? Geez. But, Mr. Leake? You've got to throw strikes!
Carlos Marmol: Marmol walked almost as many batters in relief last year as most average starting pitchers throw in three times as many innings. He averaged an amazing 7.9 walks per nine innings last year. So far this year, he's only walked one in two outings, both converted saves. That's a promising start. He's got to throw strikes!
A. J. Burnett: Last year, Burnett led the league in walks AND wild pitches. His typical pattern was to get two quick strikes and then try to get cute with sliders outside. But he wound up walking over four batters per nine and thus became way too inconsistent as a starter. So far in two starts this year, his walks are down. We'll see. He's got to throw strikes.
Dontrelle Willis: We all know the story here. Willis couldn't throw a strike the last two years if the place was on fire. Well, he's made his first start this year and he only walked 2 in six innings, so that's hopeful. But he got to three balls on six hitters. He's got to throw strikes.
The Fan will be watching these pitchers very closely along with other guys in the minors like Aroldis Chapman and Stephen Strasburg, both of whom had their pro debuts on Sunday. Both looked dominant, but both walked too many guys. They have to throw strikes!
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