When Do We Give Up on B. J. Upton?

B. J. Upton is now 26 years old. You look at him and see his athletic frame. You see the glide in his step, the grace in all he does. You have heard of his promise for more than half a decade now. When he first broke in to the big leagues in full time action in 2007, he hit .300 with an on base percentage of .386 and he slugged .508. His fielding was suspect and he struck out an awful lot (32 percent), but for a first year, you'd take that as a sign of great things to come, right? Despite poor fielding numbers, he compiled an fWAR of 4.4. You might have flinched a bit at his .391 BABIP, but nobody can be that lucky over 600 plate appearances, could they? Perhaps that BABIP told us what we should know now.

It's been all downhill for Upton since then. His batting average slipped 27 points to .273 in 2008. But he did walk 97 times. His homers fell from 24 to 9. His doubles rose from 25 to 37. His stolen bases increased to 44. And his fielding metrics were terrific. You'd still take that and continue to think a star was on the rise, right? His fWAR was actually higher that 2008 season and rose to 4.7. So far, everything about Upton seemed to point to stardom.

It didn't happen. It still hasn't happened. If you combine his two seasons of 2009 and 2010 covering 1,236 plate appearances and 1,096 at bats, his batting average has been .239. His on base percentage has been .318 and his slugging percentage, .398. He still stole a lot of bases. His defense suffered, particularly in 2010. If we look at Upton's wOBA history, it's been on a sliding scale for four years. It reads: .387, .354, .310, .337. The rise in 2010 accounts for a return of some of his power as he hit 18 homers, the most since 2007.

At some point, you have to raise the question: Is this all he is going to be? And the equally troubling question: Has the B. J. Upton we've been waiting for a myth? All of which ultimately leads to the question of how long we continue to believe our dream of the Upton that could be and finally settle on the fact that he is more of like he is now. Should we give up on him?

The Fan still grapples with the question. Whenever you see him play, his ability to the eye and his grace scream, "STAR!" But he hasn't been a star. Does he need a change of scenery? Is he a somewhat better Mark Reynolds that just needs to move on? Pouring over his statistics lead to more questions than answers. For example, his strikeout rate refuses to come down. It was 30.6 percent in 2009 and 30.5 percent in 2010. But then again, he doesn't swing at pitches out of the strike zone. His career rate is 19.4 percent, which is more comparable to Lance Berkman than Miguel Montero. His rate did increase noticeably in 2010 to over 25%. But that doesn't indicate a total lack of plate discipline.

So what is it then? Is it the quality of his contact? There may be something to see there. His line drive percentage has shrunk alarmingly. His first full season, that figure was at 19.8 percent. The last two seasons, his line drive percentage has been 15.4 and 16.6 percent respectively. Meanwhile, his infield fly ball rate (pop ups to the infield) has risen from 5.4 percent his first full season to over 8.0 percent the last two seasons.

His split stats are also revealing. The simple fact is that he cannot seem to hit right-handed pitching. Last year, his OPS against pitchers from that side was .664 while his OPS against lefties was .919. He was better against right-handers than left-handers in 2009, but it was by far his worst season in the majors. In 2007 and 2008, his splits were nearly identical. And so it seems that scouts and pitchers have seen something they have exploited the last two seasons and Upton and his coaches have not been able to make the adjustments.

Just in case you still think this Fan is overstating the case, if we look at fWAR for last season among center fielders, here is a list of some of the center fielders that were more valuable than Upton last season: Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Shane Victorino (who had a really down season), Austin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Colby Rasmus, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn, Chris Young and Angel Pagan. Wouldn't you look at Upton and think he was better than some of those guys?

So how is this year going? Unfortunately, it is more of the same. His OPS before Thursday night's game was .696. He went 0-3 with a walk and a strikeout, so those numbers won't change much. It's frustrating. It has to be for Upton and it has to be for his team and its fans. He should be better than this. Why isn't he batter than this? Perhaps we are at the point where the Rays have to simply cut their losses and simply get as much value for him as they possibly can. It's obvious that the team can't simply wait forever for the promise that may never be delivered.

Whether the Tampa Bay Rays Wither or Weather

Quick: Name the Tampa Bay Rays' general manager. [[tapping foot]] Times up. His name is Andrew Friedman and it is a mystery why he is so little known. We all know Ken Williams, Brian Cashman, Theo (who doesn't even need a last name) and now we know Alderson. But the best of the bunch in the last three years has been Andrew Friedman who has transformed the Bay Rays from a perennial punchline to a powerhouse. Now Friedman has his work cut out for him. 2010 was in many ways, the last hurrah for the particular bunch that made them successful.  As Peter Gammons points out, eleven of the twenty-five players on the Rays' roster last year are free agents, including the entire bullpen. Crawford won't be back. Pena shouldn't be back. And so it will be one of the most fascinating stories of this off season as to what the Bay Rays can and will do to keep their competitive edge.

The good news is that there is still a good core of young talent. Longoria is already the best third baseman in the league. Wait...and then what? The Fan just came up short in his thinking because there really isn't a superstar on the team besides Longoria. B. J. Upton has been nothing but frustrating in his recent few years for the Bay Rays. Bartlett went from being one of the best shortstops in the league two years ago to being one of the worst last year. Zobrist went from god-like in 2009 to league average in 2010. Jaso is serviceable and has great baseball instincts. Matt Joyce showed flashes of brilliance and could be in the superstar category soon. Sean Rodrigeuz was just okay. But the team didn't have a DH worth writing about and again, Crawford and Pena are gone.

Wait, there is another superstar! His name is David Price and he really blossomed last year. But what of the rest of the rotation? Garza is a puzzle. He either throws no-hitters or gets lit up like a Christmas tree. Shields did not have a good year. Niemann was good and then he wasn't. Wade Davis wasn't good and then he was. But the feeling here is that the Bay Rays' rotation will be just fine. The Fan sees it as: 1. Price, 2. Daves, 3. Garza, 4. Hellickson and 5. Niemann. That could be a fantastic rotation. So that is the least of the Rays' worries.

The bullpen, as mentioned are ALL free agents. The Bay Rays can probably afford to sign three or four of them. And then what? Soriano will probably move on and he was so solid for them as a closer last year. It was the first time ever that the Bay Rays had a lock on the ninth inning. It seems difficult for them to revert back to their closing history of 2009 and before. But, if building a bullpen is as easy as a lot of smart people think it is, no need to worry. Friedman will think of something. Perhaps the Nefti Feliz clone, Alex Colombe, could be the closer.

The thing about the Bay Rays is that they are fantastic at drafting players. Need another pitcher? Hellickson came up last year and pitching brilliantly in four starts. The Bay Rays messed him up a bit by putting him in the bullpen after that, but hopefully, there won't be a long term problem with that. Need another pitcher? How about Matt Moore or Alex Torres or...the list is endless.

Look for the Bay Rays to give Desmond Jennings a chance to be an every day outfielder. Jennings, to quote a scout, is "toolsy." He's a center fielder by trade, but with Upton, he may have to move to left or vice versa. Zobrist should play right and the Rays have to hope that he becomes what he was two years ago again. Upton needs to find himself. The Fan still believes he will, but time is running out. If Jennings, Upton and Zobrist man the outfield, two of the three at least should have good seasons.

If the Fan was the GM--and thank goodness, that will never happen--Bartlett would be traded for prospects or another part player. Reid Brignac is a better fielder and can be a 15 homer guy in time. Rodriguez should build on his rookie season. He shows flashes of being really good, but if that doesn't work out, they can always put Zobrist there and find an outfielder. Zobrist could also play first or rotate there with someone else.

John Jaso really impressed last year. His patience at the plate and his base running presence (not steals though) found him in the lead off spot last year. Shoppach wasn't much of a back up and of course, Dioner Navarro walked out on the team after being left off the post season roster. That probably seals his fate with this team. Bottom line, the Rays could use another decent catcher. The nice thing about needing a catcher is that you can get a pretty good one for just a few mil and change. Buck would be a nice addition that wouldn't break the bank.

And man, do the Bay Rays need a DH or what? Holy cow, that position has been a stinker for them. If they could get one of the big bruisers on the market for $5 or $6 million, they should certainly do that. Perhaps even Magglio Ordonez would be a good option if he is healthy. Anything has to be an improvement. Anything!

The Bay Rays have their work cut out of them. Crawford was one of the best players in the league. Guys like that are hard to replace. A lot has to go right for this team to be as good moving forward. Can they find bullpen help? Can more young players step up and do as well as those that have in the past? Can Garza and Niemann find some consistency and put a solid year together? But again, Friedman is one of the best and there is no way you can count them out. The scary part for this team is that depending on how their young players do, they could finish anywhere from first to fourth.

B. J. Upton Isn't Happy

B. J. Upton was going to be the next big star. He was the Jason Heyward of a few years ago. The Bay Rays (then the Devil Rays) made him their first pick (second overall). He showed promise in the high minors and then with a 136 OPS+ in 2007 with 24 homers and 22 stolen bases. But since then, his batting average has dropped every season. He had a horrible season last season with a 79 OPS+ and this year, his OPS+ is 93. What happened?

Well, to this observer, who has had the opportunity to watch a lot of Florida baseball, Upton has lost confidence and lacks the every day concentration and discipline to succeed. His manager, Joe Maddon, has shown the patience of Job with this guy. The Fan happens to think that Maddon is one five best managers in baseball. Maddon, after allowing Upton to get 626 unproductive plate appearances last year, has started to sit Upton in favor of other options.

One can appreciate Maddon's dilemma. You look at Upton and see his talent, the kind of talent the team invested highly in and it would be difficult to give up on him. If Upton could only turn the corner, what a magnificent player he could be. But Maddon is also trying to win a division and get his team back to the playoffs and has to put the players on the field that have the best chance to get him there. And right now, Upton isn't one of those guys.

If you look at it from Upton's point of view, you can feel for him too. Here's a guy who was always the best player on his team. He was even the best on his team in the minor leagues. Suddenly, it doesn't come as easy as it did. He struggles. He pouts. He loses interest. He gets defensive. Upton is in a position he's never faced his whole life.

But let's face it. It isn't Maddon's job to rescue Upton's status and career. It's Upton's job to rescue his own career. He seems like a decent guy and one hopes that he can figure it out. But he also has to understand that he hasn't produced and Maddon is certainly justified in sitting the guy. Upton has to handle this correctly and look in the mirror and understand that it is up to him to turn things around and earn back his career and playing time. Complaining to the media is an immature act and not the right way to go about things. But if you put yourself in Upton's shoes, you can understand it and give him a pass.

The bottom line is that Upton's career is at a crossroads and if he doesn't start producing, he's going to have a lot more cause to complain about his playing time.

Will B. J. Upton Ever Blossom?

This post is a result of the news today that B. J. Upton lost his arbitration hearing with the Tampa Bay Rays. He will receive $3 million for playing in 2010 instead of the $3.3 million he was asking for. Perhaps for baseball players, $300,000 doesn't seem like much. But if you prorate that over 52 weeks in a year, that's $5769 a week more he could have made. There were no reports on how Upton took the defeat, but if he is sensible, he shouldn't be upset. He didn't exactly have a banner year.

Which brings up the question of whether Upton will ever be the kind of player that everyone thought he was going to be. Upton will turn 26 during the 2010 season, so he is still young and is entering into his prime years as a player. Upton certainly gave us all a peak of what he could be when he put up the following line in his first full season in 2007: .300/.386/.508. He also hit 24 homers that year and drove in 82. He hasn't come close to those numbers since.

In 2008, Upton's line sank to: .273/.383/.401. He did walk 97 times, which was good. But his power shriveled. Last year was even worse: .241/.313/.373. And hidden in his final stats is the fact that he was abominable on the road. Upton only had one good month last year and that was June. The rest of the year (except for a little surge in Sept/Oct.) was awful.

So what is the answer? The Fan has a feeling that he had better produce this coming year or the Bay Rays will find someone else. Upton does have two things going for him that are not dependent on his hitting. He again stole over 40 bases and he again played above league average center field. But those are little consolation for a team that committed to him with the second overall pick of the 2002 draft.

There were reports that part of Upton's struggles resulted from a weak shoulder that was operated on between the 2008 and 2009 seasons. A bad shoulder could certainly curtail some of his ability. But you would have to assume that he is now a year removed from that situation and should be entering 2010 at full strength.

Upton has always looked like an exceptional talent. He's always had great bat speed. He knows how to take a walk. He's fast. He is athletic. Now he just needs to pull it all together. Time is running out if he ever hopes to became the sensational baseball player that everyone assumed he would become.

What Hustle Will Do

As someone affected by the current economy, this writer is appalled by the lack of hustle the lucky few who play in the major leagues display on a nightly basis. A few posts ago here in the FanDome, the topic was Craig Monroe, a fringe player in the majors who hustled his way out of a job in MLB due to his lack of hustle. After watching the Bay Rays play the Phillies tonight, both sides of the hustling spectrum came into full view.

First, let's consider the situation the current American League Champions find themselves in. Currently six games out of first, the Bay Rays have three teams in front of them: The Red Sox, the Yankees and the Blue Jays. All three are strong teams. At this point, if they have any chance for the wildcard and the playoffs, every game matters. So one would think a sense of urgency would permeate the team. The game tonight did not show the urgency except for a young guy named Ben Zobrist.

The game with the Phillies was close. Pat Burrell put the Bay Rays ahead 2-0 with a homer against his former mates. Garza and Blanton were terrific the entire game. The Phillies drew within a run with a homer of their own. While all this was going on, Carl Crawford hit a line drive that looked like an atom ball. As such, Crawford just jogged toward first, probably thinking he was going to be out. But the outfielder misjudged the ball and it went over his head. Only then did Crawford start busting it and decided to try to leg it into a triple. He was thrown out. If he had hustled right away, he would have been there easily. To make matters worse, the next batter doubled but did not score.

Later, B. J. Upton came up and hit a flare to short right field. The replay shows Upton jogging out of the batters box and nonchalantly trotted toward first. The first basemen and the second baseman ran to get the ball but both came up short and when neither could make the catch, they both overran the ball forcing the right fielder to have to come in and pick it up. Upton didn't run until the ball dropped and fortunately made it to second. But if he busted it from the beginning, he could have been at third. He should have been at third.

Crawford then singled to shallow left and Upton had to hold at third. If he has hustled, he would have scored on the single. Aybar was up next and hit a shallow fly to left the Matt Stairs caught on the run and easily threw Upton out at the plate for a double play. So if you are keeping score, that's two opportunities in a tight game blown by lack of hustle.

But that's where Ben Zobrist comes in. Pena got hit by a pitch moving Crawford to second. Zobrist then worked a walk loading the bases. Burrell is next and was ahead 2-0 in the count. Everything was in his favor but Burrell blew it and grounded to short on an inside pitch. Zobrist busted as hard as he could toward second and when Rollins flipped to Utley, they both expected it to be the last out of the inning. But Zobrist running as hard as he could, beat the throw. Safe! The run scored making it 3-1 but he also prolonged the inning. A single and a double followed and broke the game open to 7-1.

Zobrist, who has turned out to be one of the biggest pleasant surprises of 2009, gets it. He takes nothing for granted and works hard on every play. Crawford (which is a bit surprising) and Upton don't get it. They played the game like a part of the entitlement generation and cost their team two runs.

To a displaced worker now trying his darnedest to make his new company work, Zobrist is a hero.