2011 HOF Tracker Showing Us What We Expected

On a blog with the whimsical name of The Girl Who Loved Andy Pettitte, the facilitator of that blog has been running a "Hall of Fame Tracker" for a couple of years. It's a really neat idea and quite handy and interesting as long as you take into account that the list is based on here say from the voters themselves who will post in their own writings who they voted for. In some cases, the voters will only mention one person they voted for and not others. In some cases, they could be fibbing. But otherwise, the list gives us a pretty good idea of who is going to get in and who isn't.

Roberto Alomar seems to be an easy glide. Of the 42 ballots compiled on the site, 40 have Alomar's name listed. Former players need 75% to get elected. It also appears that Burt Blyleven will finally get in. He is polling just above 80%.  It is expected that someone as wrong-headed as Jon Heyman would not vote for Blyleven. But when Buster Olney doesn't, that's really disappointing.

Jack Morris is polling around 69% so he looks to fall short this year again. What really surprises is the lack of support for Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell is currently getting around 46% of the votes. That's just sick. The guy has every argument for why he should be in the Hall of Fame and none against.

Barry Larkin is polling well and is at 66%. It apears that his case is warming up and he will get in eventually. Edgar Martinez is getting no love with only 35%. Tim Raines and Alan Trammell again appear to be totally unappreciated and are gaining no traction from a year ago. The voters are also speaking clearly about the candidacy of guys like Olerud, Mattingly, McGriff, Dave Parker and Dale Murphy. All of those only have a handful of votes each.

This year's vote appears to be a statement vote against users of PEDs as McGwire, Juan Gonzales and Rafael Palmeiro are getting very little support. Perhaps these caped crusaders of American morality will die off soon.

And so it looks like the Hall will have two new members this year. Those two deserve the vote big time and this Fan will be happy for them. But the votes against Trammell, Raines, Bagwell and the dual PED guys, McGwire and Palmeiro simply are misguided and an injustice to baseball. But a big tip of the cap goes to The Girl Who Loved Andy Pettitte for her work on this useful and interesting tool.

One More Pitch for Burt Blyleven

Every year, Burt Blyleven is overlooked for the Hall of Fame. Jack Morris gets more buzz, but Blyleven was the better pitcher. The only knock on the guy seems to be that he didn't win any Cy Young Awards and he didn't get to 300 wins. But here is how Blyleven stacks up to some of the pitchers from the recent era who are in the Hall of Fame:

Don Sutton 324 wins, .539 WP, 3.26 ERA, 108 ERA+, 1 20-win season, 58 shutouts, 178 CG 1.142 WHIP 2.66 K/BB 6.1 K/9 2.3 BB/9 Led league in ERA once, Led in WHIP 4 times

Phil Neikro 318 wins, .537 WP, 3.35 ERA, 115 ERA+, 3 20-win seasons, 45 shoutouts, 245 CG, 1.268 WHIP, 1.85 K/BB, 5.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, Led league strikeouts once, ERA+ once, cg 4 times

Fergie Jenkins 284 wins, .557 WP, 3.34 ERA, 115 ERA+, 7 20-win seasons 49 Shutouts, 267 Cg, 1.142 WHIP, 3.20 K/bb, 6.4 k/9, 2.0 BB/9, Led league in victories twice CG 4 times WHIP once K/bb 5 times Cy Young 197

Gaylord Perry 314 wins, .542 WP, 3.11 ERA, 117 ERA+, 5 20-win seasons, 53 Shutouts, 303 Cg, 1.181 WHIP, 2.56 K/bb, 5.9 k/9, 2.3 bb/9, led league in wins three times, ERA+ once cg 2, IP 2, 2 Cy young

Burt Blyleven 287 wins, .534 WP, 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1 20-win season, 60 shutouts, 242 cg 1.198 WHIP, 2.80 k/bb, 6.7 k/9, 2.4 bb/9, Led league in WHIP once, Cg once, ERA+ once, K's once

Analysis: Blyleven is in the ball park in Winning Percentage with all of them. His ERA+ is higher than all of them. His Strikeouts Per Nine Innings is higher than all of them. He had more shutouts then all of them. His Walks per Nine Innings and WHIP are right there with them. Only Jenkins had a better Strikeout to Walk Ratio. Fergie Jenkins had a superior stretch of dominance, but less total wins. His Complete Games are in the same ballpark.

Some would say that Sutton and those would be marginal Hall of Famers. This writer says that they are in the Hall of Fame and as such are benchmarks. Blyleven deserves a place in the Hall of Fame. If those guys are in there, he should be in there.