Chad Gaudin is full of surprises but will it last?

If you ask most Yankee fans about Chad Gaudin, who now pitches for the San Francisco Giants, most would shiver. And yet, he was not that particularly bad for the Yankees. And the Yankees were just one of the teams for which Chad Gaudin has pitched. He has long been one of those fringe Major League players that you do not think much about unless he is pitching for your team. But suddenly, he has become one of the Giants' most reliable starters. How did that happen?

As I said, unless he was pitching for your team, you would hardly ever think about Chad Gaudin. As such, there would be little reason to check out his player pages on Baseball-reference.com and Fangraphs.com. But this little hot streak of his, where he has given up just two earned runs in his last 23+ innings, has forced a lot of people like me to look at his pages. And once you do so, it is full of surprises.

The first of which is that he is only thirty years old. The guy has seemed to be around forever. And in some ways, he has. He has pitched in parts of eleven different seasons. He has pitched for nine different teams. He pitched for multiple teams in a season three times in his career. You would think a guy like that would be 36 years old or something. But he is not. He is thirty. That is the first surprise.

The next one is that he made his Major League debut for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays back in 2003 when he was twenty years old. That would make you think that he was a high draft pick by the Rays. He was not. He was selected right out of high school in the 34th round. So we have a kid who was drafted way down on the draft board who pitched well in A-ball and then the next year pitched well in A-ball again and then Double-A and was in the Major Leagues for Tampa to make his debut on August 1, 2003.

Not only is that surprising, but he stayed with the club for the remainder of the season. And he was successful with a 2-0 record for a team that lost 99 games with a 3.60 ERA good for a 123 ERA+. His second win was against a powerhouse Red Sox team on September 27, 2003 as the Red Sox were heading into a showdown against the Yankees.

He started the following season with the Devil Rays in 2004 and was not as successful. He stayed with the team until late June and then was sent to Triple-A and then would be called up again in September. Gaudin pitched mostly in relief and it was not a real good season. But he was 21.

After the 2004 season, he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Kevin Cash. The Devil Rays must not have thought much about Gaudin because Cash, a journeyman catcher, had played three years for the Blue Jays and had compiled a .485 OPS.

Gaudin made only five appearances for the Blue Jays in 2005 and they went horribly. He spent most of the season in the minors.

At the end of that season, the Blue Jays traded him for the dreaded "player to be named later" to the Oakland A's. It was his two and a half years in Oakland that probably made Gaudin a commodity that would intrigue teams to this day. He had a very stable and productive run for the A's.

In 2006, Gaudin was a staple of the A's bullpen and made 53 appearances. He even had his only two saves of his career and finished with a 3.09 ERA.

The following season, Gaudin was installed in the A's rotation and he did not have a great season, but it was decent enough to tie for the league lead in games started with 34. That was a disfunctional A's team in 2007 that lost 86 games and Gaudin went 11-13.

In 2008, Gaudin was off to a good start and had a 5-3 record with the A's in five starts and twenty relief appearances with a 3.59 ERA. But he was traded to the Cubs on July 9th along with Rich Hardin for a package that netted the A's Josh Donaldson among others.

Gaudin's time in Chicago was abysmal and they released him after the season.

Then it gets a little crazy for Gaudin. Here is a rundown:

• Released by the Cubs on April 5, 2009
• Signed with the Padres on April 12, 2009
• Sold by the Padres to the Yankees on August 7, 2009
• Released by the Yankees on March 25, 2010
• Signed by the Oakland A's on March 28, 2010
• Released by the A's on May 21, 2010
• Signed by the Yankees on May 26, 2010
• Granted Free Agency on November 2, 2010
• Signed by the Nationals on December 17, 2010
• Released by the Nationals on July 21, 2011
• Signed by Blue Jays on August 5, 2011
• Granted Free Agency on November 2, 2011
• Signed by the Marlins on January 4, 2012
• Granted Free Agency on October 29, 2012
• Signed by the Giants on December 13, 2012

Whew! That is a whirlwind! But it has all worked out as things are going really well with the Giants. As someone who picks games every day, I have a hard time accepting that he has been this good. But there it is.

In 71 innings, he has a 2.15 ERA and a 3.02 FIP. He has only given up 6.7 hits per nine innings and has a WHIP of 1.070. He has a higher fWAR this season than Matt Cain and Barry Zito combined. Who would have predicted that being the case?

So is this voodoo? Is it a fluke? It might be. If you look at all his peripherals, they all look very similar to the rest of his career. His O-swing, ground ball to fly ball ratio, swinging strike percentage and others are all very similar to what he has done for his career.

The only two glaring differences this season are both what seem to fall in the fluke category. His home runs per nine rate is way down off of his career average and that might be a ball park factor not only pitching at home, but also in some spacious away parks.

The other glaring difference is his hits per nine innings pitched. And that may be summed up by his BABIP, which currently sits at .253. He is a ground ball / fly ball neutral pitcher. And the Giants are not exactly a great fielding team. They are sixth from the bottom in defensive efficiency. So is it just luck then?

Perhaps it is just my perception of the guy as a pitcher. But it does seem to me that a slip to his mean is impending. The Giants have caught a little bit of lightning in a bottle with Chad Gaudin's first 71 innings with the team. Either way, he has had an interesting career and eleven seasons for a guy with middle-of-the-road stuff is a good run. And at the still young age of 30, he could have plenty of middle-of-the-road seasons to come.

MLB Game Picks - Friday: July 19, 2013

And on the fifth day, he said, "Let there be baseball," and then there was baseball. The All Star Break is finally over and once again, the grand game of baseball gets back into the swing of things on a relentless pace that will not end until the end of October.

I kept a four year tradition of picking the All Star Game incorrectly. Hey, if you are only going to have one game to pick in a four day span, you might as well get it wrong. Home field advantage in the World Series can make a huge difference though, so the American League gets the nod this year.

Just to make sure today is not like some opening day like feel, every team is in action and they are all night games. I am back in the saddle and these are your Friday picks:

• The Nationals over the Dodgers: This is a big game for both teams. Both would like to make a charge in the second half and get where they were predicted to get by the end. Ricky Nolasco has been good for the Dodgers. And I am sure he feels like he has a new life. Stephen Strasburg will need to come up big in the second half for the Nats. Going with the home team.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Another round in the battle of the Ays. The Blue Jays will have a big say in who is going to win the AL East and wild cards. And they are not going to be easy to beat at home. But on any given day, you have to pick David Price over Esmil Rogers.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Why do the Yankees have to wait until Monday to get A-Rod back? I will never understand how long these rehab things take. Will Jeter be back tonight? No word on that yet. With those questions unanswered, the fact remains that lefties are fatal for the current Yankees. Felix Doubront over Andy Pettitte.
• The Mets over the Phillies: The Phillies still think they have playoff aspirations. I will believe it when I see it. Other than Domenic Brown, what is there? Jeremy Hefner over Kyle Kendrick.
• The Reds over the Pirates: A very interesting match-up. Mike Leake is unpredictable but has been more good than bad. Francisco Liriano has been very good but the memories of his meltdowns are hard to forget. I am going with the Reds at home.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Wei-Yin Chen came back from the disabled list with a very effective game last time out. So this pick might end up paying for it if the Rangers cannot score. But Derek Holland is also capable of shutting down the Orioles too. Another interesting game.
• The Braves over the White Sox: The Braves get an extra hitter (is Gattis back?) and have Tim Hudson on the mound. John Danks has looked pretty good since coming back, but his mates have to score. Hudson is the deciding factor.
• The Tigers over the Royals: I would normally always pick Anibal Sanchez over Ervin Santana. But if this game stays close, the Royals have the better bullpen. It probably won't stay close.
• The Brewers over the Marlins: Jacob Turner has been very good for the Marlins and looks like he might be on his way to fulfilling his promise. But I like the old pro, Kyle Lohse at home in Milwaukee too much to pick against him.
• The Astros over the Mariners: The last two times I have picked against Joe Saunders, I have paid for it. But I am a stubborn coot. Not that I like Bud Norris that much better, but at home, he has a chance and Houston has a bigger right-field porch than left.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Jason Marquis has not won a game in a month and four days. But the Cardinals' old friend has not pitched badly. His team has not scored for him. Jake Westbrook at least gives the Padres a fighting chance. But I still like the Cardinals at home.
• The Rockies over the Cubs: Jeff Samardzija did not look good at all in his last start. He got rocked in fact. Following up that performance at Coors Field does not make me feel at all like that will go well either. Jorge De La Rosa knows how to pitch at Coors.
• The Angels over the Athletics: A.J. Griffin, like the A's has been on a bit of a roll. But I would have to think twice or three times before picking against Jered Weaver at home. The Angels' ace has been awfully quiet this summer. I think he will be loud in the second half.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: Chad Gaudin. I am picking Chad Gaudin? Oy. But he is at home and the Diamondbacks are pitching Ian Kennedy who has not looked good at all. Kennedy does have a bit of a history having big second halves though.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Indians over the Twins: I went with Scott Kazmir in his last outing and he rewarded me for the pick. So I am sticking with him this outing too. The Twins counter with Mike Pelfrey who needs a whole lot of "at em" balls to succeed.

The All Star Game: 0-1

Week: 8-8

Month: 119-79

Season: 796-615

Games of the Day: 63-40

MLB Game Picks - Friday: July 12, 2013

Yesterday was a tough day and it was only a bit of success at the end of the day that led to a 6-6 record. The mediocre day put a bit of a damper on what has been a good week. First of all, I should have picked Danny Salazar, who was terrific. I picked against Danny Salazar and for Ross Wolf, two young pitchers. I got them both wrong even though Ross pitched a good game. His team could not score against Miguel Gonzalez. My beloved Jordan Zimmerman pitched another great game and deserved to win. But his team could not score against Kyle Kendrick. And Edwin Jackson, of all people, shut out the Cardinals. I felt that coming and did not pick it.

And so it was a tough day. Now we enter the final weekend before the All Star Break and I am looking forward to Monday. I need a couple of days as a break myself. Heck, I just write about these games. Imagine the grind of those who play it every day!

Friday's picks:

• The Cardinals over the Cubs: I debated on this one a long time. Both teams are starting long relievers. The Cards are going with Joe Kelly and the Cubs with Carlos Villanueva. Both are very useful pitchers who can never quite make a team's starting rotation. I think they cancel each other out and then I go with the better team.
• The Phillies over the White Sox: The White Sox are playing a little better. I should have picked Chris Sale yesterday and did not. But in this one, I see Jonathan Pettibone doing better than John Danks. And the White Sox lose a batter.
• The Indians over the Royals: Early in the season, I picked against Corey Kluber a lot. And then he got hot and it took me a while to come over to picking him. And then he got cold and I was on the wrong side again. He was great his last time out. So I am picking him. Bruce Chen is going for the Royals. Royals' fans have seen this before.
• The Yankees over the Twins: The Twins have traditionally struggled against the Yankees. These are not the same Yankees and it looks like Derek Jeter's return was for a day and won't play today probably. But Hiroki Kuroda is not a pitcher to pick against and Scott Diamond is.
• The Mets over the Pirates: I just wrote about Jeremy Hefner yesterday, so I have to pick him, right? Besides, I am not a big fan of Charlie Morton. Perhaps the Pirates went cold for going back to this blast to the terrible past for a pitcher.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle has been pitching well, but the Orioles have too good an offense and Chris Tillman is having a good season. It is tough to pick against the Orioles at home.
• The Tigers over the Rangers: Justin Grimm is not pitching well and has not made it past the fifth inning in his last four starts. Doug Fister is a strange case. He either pitches just fine or he is absolutely awful. What will today bring? He lives so much on the margins, that sometimes he just falls too close ot the cliff.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: The Nationals' offense has been so spotty and it wastes great outings from their big three starting pitchers. Stephen Strasburg has been no different. But he is so good that you have to pick him in any given game. Nathan Eovaldi will hope the Nats' bats are cold again.
• The Braves over the Reds: My gut is telling me that the Braves are going to club three homers against Bronson Arroyo today. And with Arroyo's homer-happy past, that is not a stretch. Kris Medlen will have to pitch a good game for this pick to come in though.
• The Diamondbacks over the Brewers: Tom Gorzelanny is one of those pitchers like Kyle Kendrick, who seem to live on the fringes awaiting their chance and do well once they get it. But I have to go with Patrick Corbin here.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: The Red Sox never seem to lose. Ever. John Lackey has pitched very well this season. Jarrod Parker has had his ups and downs.
• The Angels over the Mariners: Yeah, yeah, Joe Saunders was terrific his last time out. Big deal. The Angels should still beat him up. Jerome Williams was having a great season until his last start. Can he rebound?
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Suddenly, the Dodgers are relentless. Hairston, Ellis, Puig, Gonzalez and especially Hanley Ramirez, are all hitting the ball really well and the team is getting good pitching. All that could come together here against Juan Nicasio of the Rockies. The Rockies are sinking but have Troy Tulowitzki back. Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers.
• The Giants over the Padres: The Padres are starting Sean O'Sullivan who has not started in the big leagues since 2011. His MLB K/9 is invisible but he was having a good strikeout season for him in the minors. I am not buying it though. But picking Chad Gaudin just goes against everything I stand for. Ugh!

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Astros: The Astros are featuring the MLB debut of Jarred Cosart. Cosart was a 38th round draft pick the Astros obtained from the Phillies a couple of years ago (Oswalt deal?). He looks like he has a good arm, but his minor league record is filled with too many walks. I cannot pick that. Besides, David Price has come back with a vengeance from the DL.

Yesterday: 6-6

Week: 44-26

Month: 94-58

Season: 771-604

Games of the Day: 61-39

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 20, 2013

Finally! A good day of picking! Oh, man, did I need that. There were only four incorrect picks out of sixteen. They were: The Yankees second game, where they were as limp as a noodle; The Marlins, which was a stupid pick; The Pirates (and that took thirteen innings to go wrong) and the Red Sox, who had their hands full with the Rays. Otherwise, spot on. There were two blown saves last night. One helped me when Jonathan Papelbon blew one and the other was the Pirates Jason Grilli, which was unusual, and led to that pick going bad.

There are twelve games on the schedule tonight, which is a lot for a Thursday. Here are the picks:

• The Reds over the Pirates: This early afternoon game should see two tired teams after a thirteen inning game yesterday. The Reds have the advantage with experience in Homer Bailey over the inexperience of Brandon Cumpton.
• The Twins over the White Sox: John Danks has not been pitching badly for the White Sox since his return and his left arm causes problems for some of the lefty bats of the Twins. But I will still pick the Twins though it is with some Scott Diamond reservations.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Rangers needed to win this series but the A's should finish it with a 2-2 tie. A.J. Griffin will hold the Rangers to just a few runs and the A's should score often against Josh Lindblom, who has not looked like he can get Major League hitters out thus far.
• The Brewers over the Astros: Yovani Gallardo looks like he is rounding into mid-season form, which is not good news for the Astros. Lucas Harrell will keep his team in the game, as always, but the Brewers squeak by.
• The Nationals over the Rockies: At least Roy Oswalt's 2013 debut will not happen at Coors. I just cannot imagine him being overly effective. Jayson Werth has been hot lately and will factor in here somehow. And my man, Jordan Zimmermann, will bounce back after a rare bad outing.
• The Bay Rays over the Yankees: It would seem just right for Matt Moore to regain his footing against a terrible Yankees' lineup. The Yankees do not hit lefties at all and Joe Girardi insists on not only playing Vernon Wells, but batting him cleanup. Strange. Andy Pettitte will keep it close.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: The Tigers lead the world in Venezuelan ball players. Rookie, Jose Alvarez, is yet another. Alvarez has a good left arm and his first start of his career went very well. The Red Sox are a tough team though. John Lackey runs into Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder and should be shouting on the mound by the fourth inning.
• The Braves over the Mets: Mike Minor has sort of been stuck a little bit lately, but he should have little trouble from the Mets. Jonathon Niese never seems to win. And I am thinking tonight will be no different.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: I have loved what Scott Feldman has brought to the Cubs this season. I knew he had it in him. But the Cardinals have the best lineup in the National League and Lance Lynn is 9-1. Yeah, that will work. Doesn't it seem that the Cardinals are always home?
• The Mariners over the Angels: As I have stated before, just because Felix Hernandez is pitching, it does not mean his team is going to win. But at least they have a better chance to win and that is what this pick is about. I think Tommy Hanson gives up two runs and King Felix, one.
• The Padres over the Dodgers: The Dodgers played two games against the Yankees and then flew all the way to San Diego overnight. I would imagine they could be flatter than flapjacks. Plus, I am not a big Stephen Fife fan and Jason Marquis has been tough at home.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Giants over the Marlins: My problem with this one is that the Chad Gaudin I remember was the Yankees' version. And he caused nightmares there he was so bad. But he has been good for the Giants and I should stop being surprised. Of course, I will pick him here and he will turn back into a pumpkin. Tom Koehler gets another loss.

Yesterday: 12-4

Week: 36-23

Month: 136-125

Season: 599-475

Games of the Day: 46-32