The voters for the Cy Young Award in the American League got it right. Zack Greinke was baseball's best pitcher last year. He didn't win 20. He didn't win 19 or 18 or even 17. He won 16. And the big fear in this corner was that his win total would keep Greinke out of the running for the only pitcher who should have been considered. Those fears were ungrounded as the right guy won.
Greinke was unbelievable in 2009. He led the league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP and a whole bunch of other statistics. He gave up only 11 homers all season. He struck out 242 in 229+ innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio was 4.75. His Pythagorean won/loss record was 21-6. His FIP was 2.42. Just about every way you look at his season, he comes out a winner.
Felix Hernandez also had a wonderful season that would have garnered the award in many other seasons besides this one. But for this season, he was the second best pitcher
The only problem with the results are what it will mean for the attention that Greinke gets for winning the award. Some of his words after winning show the extent of his anxiety at the new found attention he will be receiving. He seemed more anxious about winning the award than thrilled at that's a bit worrisome. But hopefully, so day down the road, he can look back at this time in his life and really enjoy his accomplishments.
Zack Greinke was the best pitcher in baseball in 2009. And he won the Cy Young. How cool is that?
Showing posts with label Cy Young. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cy Young. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
The Fan is So Lost and Confused
We have officially entered the dead zone. With the races pretty much decided (the Twins and Giants might have something to say about that in the next two weeks), much of the discussion on the Web has begun to revolve around the post-season awards like MVP and Cy Young. Since there is no pitcher who is going to win 25 or 30 games, it seems unlikely that any pitcher, Cy Young winner or not, is going to factor in the MVP voting. Not so fast! Today's Rob Neyer post blew this Fan away by pointing out that places like FanGraphs value the best pitchers as highly as the best hitters. Whuh?
So, not wanting to ever look stupid, the Fan followed Mr. Neyer's link to FanGraphs and sure enough, Albert Pujols is currently valued at $37.2 million and Zack Greinke is valued at $38.5 million. Can that be? The Fan reached for his normal plethora of baseball lore. Starting pitchers only pitch every fifth day. Positional players play every day. At least, that's how we've always heard it should be, right? But again, the Fan does not want to look stupid. So some time was spent trying to sort out what FanGraphs is measuring. This Fan has to admit he is totally in over his head and totally lost.
When the Fan was young, math was easy. If you gave how many times a batter had been up to bat and how many hits he had in those at bats, the Fan could get real close (if not dead on), to what the batter had for a batting average. The same for ERA. The Fan had a near perfect score on the math side of the SATs. But now? Call the Fan a dope. From what the Fan can see from the FanGraphs valuations, you figure in the position the player plays, how well they field that position, what they do at the plate or how they pitch and you come up with a RAR or Runs Above Replacement. You also get a WAR or a Wins Above Replacement. The dollar valuation is some mathematical equation from WAR that gives the player a value if the player was on the free market. Right now, according to FanGraphs, Greinke is more valuable than Pujols. And the argument then can be made that Greinke is the MVP.
The way it works out is that Pujols is worth 8.3 wins above the average replacement player. Greinke is worth 8.6 wins above the average replacement player. Okay, the Fan can get how what a starting pitcher does directly affects the outcome of games. So does that mean that the average replacement pitcher would be 6-16 if he pitched on the Royals instead of the 14-8 that Greinke is? The Fan doesn't know if that's what it means or not. That actually sounds plausible though.
But hasn't Pujols won more games with the runs that he's driven in? Before Holliday entered the picture, Pujols was about the only offense the Cardinals had. The Fan doesn't know. Clueless.
According to FanGraphs, the following is your top fifteen valued players (in millions):
1. Greinke - $38.5
2. Pujols - $37.2
3. Lincecum - $36
4. Hanley Ramirez - $34.7
5. Chase Utley - $34.5
6. Joe Mauer - $33.7
7. Ben Zobrist - $32.8
8. Verlander - $31
9. Roy Halladay - $30
10. Cliff Lee - $29.2
11. Longoria - $29.1
12. Jeter - $28.6
13. Zimmerman - $28.3
14. Jon Lester - $27.6
15. Javier Vazquez - $27.6
All those guys seem like they are worth that kind of money, though the Rays would go broke if they had to pay Longoria and Zobrist that kind of money. Something just doesn't feel right though and unfortunately, the Fan isn't smart enough to be able to pinpoint what that is. For example, the valuation for relief pitchers (which seems to clearly show why no reliever should ever get a Cy Young award) shows that Phil Hughes is slightly more valuable to the Yankees than Mariano Rivera. Hmm...
Perhaps what the Fan needs is a "Sabermetrics for Dummies" book. Is there such a book? If not, there should be. Because the Fan feels like a dummy if there ever was one. Perhaps a pitcher should win an MVP based on this stuff. Perhaps a catcher should get a positional adjustment of +15.2 and shortstops +7.5. But based on what? How is that figured? Oy. Lost...so very lost.
Perhaps the Fan can end the misery of this post by looking for the anti-MVP. For your reading pleasure, what follows is the worst players in baseball based on WAR and Dollars (again in millions):
1. Gary Matthews, Jr. - ($ 8.8)
2. Jose Guillen - ($ 8.5)
3. Delmon Young - ($7.5)
3. Yuniesky Betancourt - ($7.5)
4. Brian Giles - ($7.4)
At least that makes a lot of sense.
So, not wanting to ever look stupid, the Fan followed Mr. Neyer's link to FanGraphs and sure enough, Albert Pujols is currently valued at $37.2 million and Zack Greinke is valued at $38.5 million. Can that be? The Fan reached for his normal plethora of baseball lore. Starting pitchers only pitch every fifth day. Positional players play every day. At least, that's how we've always heard it should be, right? But again, the Fan does not want to look stupid. So some time was spent trying to sort out what FanGraphs is measuring. This Fan has to admit he is totally in over his head and totally lost.
When the Fan was young, math was easy. If you gave how many times a batter had been up to bat and how many hits he had in those at bats, the Fan could get real close (if not dead on), to what the batter had for a batting average. The same for ERA. The Fan had a near perfect score on the math side of the SATs. But now? Call the Fan a dope. From what the Fan can see from the FanGraphs valuations, you figure in the position the player plays, how well they field that position, what they do at the plate or how they pitch and you come up with a RAR or Runs Above Replacement. You also get a WAR or a Wins Above Replacement. The dollar valuation is some mathematical equation from WAR that gives the player a value if the player was on the free market. Right now, according to FanGraphs, Greinke is more valuable than Pujols. And the argument then can be made that Greinke is the MVP.
The way it works out is that Pujols is worth 8.3 wins above the average replacement player. Greinke is worth 8.6 wins above the average replacement player. Okay, the Fan can get how what a starting pitcher does directly affects the outcome of games. So does that mean that the average replacement pitcher would be 6-16 if he pitched on the Royals instead of the 14-8 that Greinke is? The Fan doesn't know if that's what it means or not. That actually sounds plausible though.
But hasn't Pujols won more games with the runs that he's driven in? Before Holliday entered the picture, Pujols was about the only offense the Cardinals had. The Fan doesn't know. Clueless.
According to FanGraphs, the following is your top fifteen valued players (in millions):
1. Greinke - $38.5
2. Pujols - $37.2
3. Lincecum - $36
4. Hanley Ramirez - $34.7
5. Chase Utley - $34.5
6. Joe Mauer - $33.7
7. Ben Zobrist - $32.8
8. Verlander - $31
9. Roy Halladay - $30
10. Cliff Lee - $29.2
11. Longoria - $29.1
12. Jeter - $28.6
13. Zimmerman - $28.3
14. Jon Lester - $27.6
15. Javier Vazquez - $27.6
All those guys seem like they are worth that kind of money, though the Rays would go broke if they had to pay Longoria and Zobrist that kind of money. Something just doesn't feel right though and unfortunately, the Fan isn't smart enough to be able to pinpoint what that is. For example, the valuation for relief pitchers (which seems to clearly show why no reliever should ever get a Cy Young award) shows that Phil Hughes is slightly more valuable to the Yankees than Mariano Rivera. Hmm...
Perhaps what the Fan needs is a "Sabermetrics for Dummies" book. Is there such a book? If not, there should be. Because the Fan feels like a dummy if there ever was one. Perhaps a pitcher should win an MVP based on this stuff. Perhaps a catcher should get a positional adjustment of +15.2 and shortstops +7.5. But based on what? How is that figured? Oy. Lost...so very lost.
Perhaps the Fan can end the misery of this post by looking for the anti-MVP. For your reading pleasure, what follows is the worst players in baseball based on WAR and Dollars (again in millions):
1. Gary Matthews, Jr. - ($ 8.8)
2. Jose Guillen - ($ 8.5)
3. Delmon Young - ($7.5)
3. Yuniesky Betancourt - ($7.5)
4. Brian Giles - ($7.4)
At least that makes a lot of sense.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Zack Greinke - Cy Young Leader
Rob Neyer wrote a piece last week about the Cy Young award and how most voters for that award will not register a vote for a guy who is not among the league leaders in wins. He is right and many times a vote will be case for all the wrong reasons such as the win/loss record much like the MVP is almost always based on the homer/RBI combination. Some day, maybe, these awards will come to the modern age and stats such as WARP, PitchF/X and other factors will contribute to the awards. Zack Greinke might be having the type of season that will tip the scales. But that's a big, "might."
The way the season is shaping up so far, if the trends continue, C. C. Sabathia would probably win the most votes for Cy Young, especially with the recent struggles of Beckett and Halladay. And Sabathia has been worth every penny the Yankees paid for the guy. He hasn't often been spectacular, but he is a horse that goes out there every fifth day and pitches deep into the game and gives the Yankees a chance to win. There is no overstating his value to the Yankees' pitching staff and what his starts have meant to his team. But he isn't the right choice for Cy Young.
As it stands now, Zack Greinke should win the award. His problem is that he pitches for the Royals, the worst team in baseball. And unlike the year that Steve Carlton had with the Phillies when Carlton had a gaudy record despite his team coming in last place, Greinke figures at best to finish with a record around 15-10. Not especially pretty for a Cy Young winner. But in this Fan's figuring, the best pitcher...check that...the best starting pitcher in baseball should win the award regardless of record (no closer or other reliever with ninety innings or less should ever win the award).
And Greinke has clearly been the league's best pitcher. He leads the league in ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. He has a K/9 of 9.6 and a K/BB ratio of 5.05 to 1. Those are sick numbers by any standard. He also has the best homer per nine innings rate of 0.5. So he keeps the ball in the yard, he strikes out almost 10 per nine innings, while only walking 1.9. He allows less than a hit an inning. And he averages a little over seven innings a start. If the season ended right now, who would be better?
And what a season it could be if Greinke played for a decent team. He has six games started this year when he did not get a decision. The Royals lost every one of them. In those six games where he didn't get a decision, he gave up eleven runs, less than two per game. In his eight losses, he has given up 26 earned runs or a little over three a game. Most of those would have been wins on any other team. In fact, in his 27 starts, he has only given up four or more earned runs four times. So with little stretch of imagination, he easily could be 18-4 instead of 13-8.
The most telling statistic for Greinke is that in his 27 starts, his team has scored three or less runs seventeen times and he is still 13-8. Baseball Prospectus figures that under normal conditions, Greinke would finish with a 22-9 season. That's a Cy Young season, no?
The way the season is shaping up so far, if the trends continue, C. C. Sabathia would probably win the most votes for Cy Young, especially with the recent struggles of Beckett and Halladay. And Sabathia has been worth every penny the Yankees paid for the guy. He hasn't often been spectacular, but he is a horse that goes out there every fifth day and pitches deep into the game and gives the Yankees a chance to win. There is no overstating his value to the Yankees' pitching staff and what his starts have meant to his team. But he isn't the right choice for Cy Young.
As it stands now, Zack Greinke should win the award. His problem is that he pitches for the Royals, the worst team in baseball. And unlike the year that Steve Carlton had with the Phillies when Carlton had a gaudy record despite his team coming in last place, Greinke figures at best to finish with a record around 15-10. Not especially pretty for a Cy Young winner. But in this Fan's figuring, the best pitcher...check that...the best starting pitcher in baseball should win the award regardless of record (no closer or other reliever with ninety innings or less should ever win the award).
And Greinke has clearly been the league's best pitcher. He leads the league in ERA, ERA+ and WHIP. He has a K/9 of 9.6 and a K/BB ratio of 5.05 to 1. Those are sick numbers by any standard. He also has the best homer per nine innings rate of 0.5. So he keeps the ball in the yard, he strikes out almost 10 per nine innings, while only walking 1.9. He allows less than a hit an inning. And he averages a little over seven innings a start. If the season ended right now, who would be better?
And what a season it could be if Greinke played for a decent team. He has six games started this year when he did not get a decision. The Royals lost every one of them. In those six games where he didn't get a decision, he gave up eleven runs, less than two per game. In his eight losses, he has given up 26 earned runs or a little over three a game. Most of those would have been wins on any other team. In fact, in his 27 starts, he has only given up four or more earned runs four times. So with little stretch of imagination, he easily could be 18-4 instead of 13-8.
The most telling statistic for Greinke is that in his 27 starts, his team has scored three or less runs seventeen times and he is still 13-8. Baseball Prospectus figures that under normal conditions, Greinke would finish with a 22-9 season. That's a Cy Young season, no?
Thursday, August 20, 2009
A Closer Should Never Win a Cy Young Award
There has again been the usual rumblings around the blogsphere about Mariano Rivera as a Cy Young candidate. Posts such as this one tout his ERA and his K/BB ratios, etc. Anyone who knows the Fan knows that Mo is one of his favorite players. The class of the guy and his unusual success over the years with one pitch has earned the respect and a place some day at Cooperstown. But he should never win the Cy Young award, no matter how good he does.
Many experts out there denigrate the value of a closer. Many say that any good starter could be a good closer. Many also say that the Save is a bogus statistic and that guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are artificial heroes because of the bogus stat. The Fan doesn't buy it and those that propose that sort of thinking don't understand that the nature of the game has changed. Pitchers no longer finish 25 to 35 games a season like they did in the past. Starters are expected to pitch to the sixth or seventh and the bullpen takes over. That is today's game. And not accepting that fact takes away from what the closer does. Just ask the Indians how important a closer is. But a closer should not win a Cy Young award.
The Yankees have a .606 OPS against them in save situations. The Blue Jays sit at .806. You don't think that has a big factor in their respective places in the standings? The expectation of guys like Rivera and Eckersley and Gossage at his peak is that the game becomes a seven inning game. You had better be winning or at least tied by then because if you were behind, it was over. There is no overstating the fact that a closer like Rivera is a devastating weapon for the Yankees just like Eckersley was at his closing peak. But they still should win Cy Young awards.
The simple fact of the matter is that they usually pitch an inning. Again, the Fan fully believes in the importance of a good closer and that the Save is a valid statistic. But it's still only one inning out of nine. The starter has to go seven of the nine. There is no comparison of the value there. Either it's a seven of nine effect on a game or a one of nine. The math doesn't ever make sense for a closer and Cy Young. A closer will pitch 70 innings a year. A starter will pitch over 200. A closer will throw 1400 pitches a season. A starter will throw over 4000. No matter how you look at the math, the closer never comes close in value.
The AL Cy Young contenders are Halladay (the leader right now), Greinke and probably Jackson. But don't put Rivera in there. He's great, perhaps the greatest closer ever. But he shouldn't ever be in the thinking process for Cy Young.
Many experts out there denigrate the value of a closer. Many say that any good starter could be a good closer. Many also say that the Save is a bogus statistic and that guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are artificial heroes because of the bogus stat. The Fan doesn't buy it and those that propose that sort of thinking don't understand that the nature of the game has changed. Pitchers no longer finish 25 to 35 games a season like they did in the past. Starters are expected to pitch to the sixth or seventh and the bullpen takes over. That is today's game. And not accepting that fact takes away from what the closer does. Just ask the Indians how important a closer is. But a closer should not win a Cy Young award.
The Yankees have a .606 OPS against them in save situations. The Blue Jays sit at .806. You don't think that has a big factor in their respective places in the standings? The expectation of guys like Rivera and Eckersley and Gossage at his peak is that the game becomes a seven inning game. You had better be winning or at least tied by then because if you were behind, it was over. There is no overstating the fact that a closer like Rivera is a devastating weapon for the Yankees just like Eckersley was at his closing peak. But they still should win Cy Young awards.
The simple fact of the matter is that they usually pitch an inning. Again, the Fan fully believes in the importance of a good closer and that the Save is a valid statistic. But it's still only one inning out of nine. The starter has to go seven of the nine. There is no comparison of the value there. Either it's a seven of nine effect on a game or a one of nine. The math doesn't ever make sense for a closer and Cy Young. A closer will pitch 70 innings a year. A starter will pitch over 200. A closer will throw 1400 pitches a season. A starter will throw over 4000. No matter how you look at the math, the closer never comes close in value.
The AL Cy Young contenders are Halladay (the leader right now), Greinke and probably Jackson. But don't put Rivera in there. He's great, perhaps the greatest closer ever. But he shouldn't ever be in the thinking process for Cy Young.
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