A Cat Has Nine Lives - A Bird Is Not A Cat

I wrote during Spring Training about the need to resist hope about Greg Bird finally becoming the player Brian Cashman has kept saying he was going to be. Greg Bird had a great spring for the New York Yankees. There was a lot of talk from manager, Aaron Boone, and Cashman about Bird making a significant contribution to the Yankees. After yet another dismal start to Bird's season and his .555 OPS along with his failure to scoop up throws at first base, we now learn that Bird has a left plantar fascia tear and is out indefinitely. I have not been this shocked at either development since the days of Nick Johnson.

And really, that is a solid knock on Nick Johnson. Yes, Johnson had injury after injury and his career was never what it should have been. Johnson's one full season for the Nationals showed what a healthy Johnson could have been like. So, yes, Nick Johnson was a constant disappointment. But at least he produced at times when he was available. Except for Greg Bird's first 178 Plate Appearances for the Yankees in 2015, Greg Bird's production has been a black hole with scorched earth.

Sometimes I feel badly about writing such a piece. Greg Bird seems like a nice guy. He seems earnest and nice and it is not his fault that his legs have been a mine field since that 2015 season. And I am quite sure he was trying his hardest to perform better on the field than he has. Unfortunately, baseball is a business and it is about what you have produced lately and what you can be expected to produce in the future. And four years of history has shown us that he has about as much chance of being a "significant contributor" at some point for the Yankees as Jacoby Ellsbury.

It is time for the Yankees to cut the cord on Greg Bird just like they did with Nick Johnson years ago. The injury is unfortunate. The body of work, though, does not lie. And his spring did not fool any of  the smart folks who put together evaluations and projections. A .710 OPS was the highest projection he received. That is not anywhere close to what you want from a first baseman, especially a first baseman that is not very good at defending that position.

Bird's injury piles on to the Yankees' physical misfortunes thus far. But his injury is the least significant. That says something right there. Ben Heller on the DL hurts more right now than Greg Bird.

So what should the Yankees do when Greg Bird returns? That might not be a question that can even be answered right now. This particular injury is a terrible injury that could possibly end his season. He is listed on the injury report as, "No timetable for recovery."

If I were running the Yankees, I would totally and unequivocally dismiss Greg Bird from any future plans. If he comes back this year, he should either stay in the minors or be traded. Or he could be released. In some ways, Greg Bird has held first base hostage for the Yankees since Mark Teixeira's retirement and that should end immediately.

For the Yankees, it is an addiction that should be quit cold turkey. They have held onto, hoped and wrung hands that Greg Bird would take his sweet swing and become a star with the Yankees. It is not going to happen. Enough is enough and it is time to move on. I am still not convinced that Luke Voit is the answer. We will see how his season goes. Come on down, Mike Ford, whatcha got?

Personally, this Greg Bird addiction led against looking at a guy like Mike Moustakas, who has been killing the ball for the Brewers. For basically chump change, Moustakas could have stepped in at third when Miguel Andujar went down or he could have played first. Maybe Moustakas was not the answer. But something creative has to be done about the future of first base for the Yankees. Heck, Giancarlo Stanton would be a big target over there. I still think Stanton is a better player when he is not the designated hitter.

Nice guy or no, earnest or not, a Bird is not a cat. There is not nine lives and Greg Bird's Yankee lives are burned up. It is time to move on or at least let him try to move on someplace else.

Luke Voit Or Greg Bird

Many New York Yankee fans looked on wistfully when Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. When it was first hinted that Goldschmidt was on the trading block, the thought of him wearing pinstripes was an attractive one. When that deal did not happen, the reality set in that first base would be manned by either Luke Voit--last year's hero--or Greg Bird. Now the reality is setting in that only one of them will survive the cut to head north for the season as suggested by Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman. Voit was given the initial nudge because of what he did last year, but Bird is being touted (once again) for the kind of spring he is having. So which will it be?

From a fan's perspective, there is an emotional choice here. Luke Voit won a lot of hearts in the city with his magical run, his infectious smile and his Hulk-like super hero body. Greg Bird has been the perennial disappointment akin to the Nick Johnson days. A few fans might be sad to see Greg Bird go, but not a majority. Voit would be the fan favorite.

The thing nobody knows is if Luke Voit is the real deal. As someone who has lived through the Kevin Maas and Shane Spencer days, Voit's fall exploits feel reminiscent. Heck, even Greg Bird had a great first year at the age of 22. There is also the fact that the Yankees are a heavily right-handed batting team. Greg Bird gives them more balance. But balance with a 79 career OPS+ kind of loses its luster.

I wonder what the Las Vegas odds would be on which player will make the team. In the Deja Vu department, Greg Bird is having a really good spring. But so is Luke Voit. But what about projections? Marcels' Projections has Luke Voit with an .842 OPS. Most would take that in a lineup like the Yankees have. The same projections has Greg Bird just topping a .700 OPS, which wouldn't cut it at all. Over at Fangraphs.com, the five projections there have a low wRC+ for Voit at 115 and a high of 140. Greg Bird has wRC+ projections that are at 100 for a low and 115 for a high. I think we have seen that projections are very much more in favor of Voit over Bird.

It would be a bit easier if one of them was superior with the glove. The hard truth is that both are terrible fielding first basemen. Fangraphs assigned Bird with a -3.4 runs on defense while Voit did worse at -3.7. It seems like their range is below standard in both cases and neither is very good at scooping balls out of the dirt. Voit seems a lot like Ron Bloomberg at first base which is why Bloomberg is the perennial trivia answer as to which player recorded the first hit with the DH rule.

Paul Goldschmidt's range makes him look like a gazelle in comparison to either choice for the Yankees. Alas...

It is easy to see why the Yankees are loathe to give up on Greg Bird. He is two years younger than Voit and is only 26. Bird has far superior MiLB numbers. Voit's were not terrible, but his career MiLB OPS of .824 is some 50+ points lower than Bird's. But does that mean anything? It all comes down to how you perform once you get the chance. Bird simply has not been able to lift off.

Both players have very similar walk and strikeout rates. Luke Voit hit the ball hard 47% of the time last year. Greg Bird was at 40%. Voit's weak contact was only 9% while Bird's was over 13%. Greg Bird has always been over 13% in that area.

Luke Voit seems to have the edge as a fan favorite, better projections, more hard hit balls and less weak hit ones and he has already become a legend. But Bird is home grown and younger. The Yankees have invested much more into his career. And if Bird is the one to get sent down, does that become a glass ceiling kind of thing? Is it worth even keeping him in the minors at that point?

Without taking a poll, it would be hard to imagine the fans wanting anyone but Luke Voit at first base. That would be my preference as well. But the fans do not always get what they want which is why Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are not Yankees. My gut feels kind of sick inside, but it is telling me that Greg Bird will be the choice.

Is Greg Bird Teasing Us Again?

I promised myself that I was done with Greg Bird. After all the hype about his sweet swing and his MiLB success, hopes were built and expectations were set. Outstanding Spring Training performances occurred in 2015 and 2017 and led to the big tease. The result was a total letdown of major proportions. The tease did not even lead to decent numbers. They led to oblivion.

And thus, it was somewhat liberating to just write him off. The mindset was not particularly cruel. After all, for a position on the field that has an expectation to hit the ball effectively, Bird, flopped spectacularly. During the last two seasons, his wCR+ has been 86 and 81 respectively. According to Fangraphs, his offense in the past two seasons has been worth -11.9. Yeesh.

But it was worse than that for those of us who watched all those games. Greg Bird batted .133 with the bases loaded. He came to the plate seven times with the bases loaded and only one out. He went zero for seven in those opportunities. In late and close games in 2018, Bird batted .154 in those situations.

He was the rally killer. He was the candle snuffer. Just when it looked like the Yankees had an offensive surge coming, Greg Bird would take the life out of it. That made it very easy to jump on the Luke Voit bandwagon once the big guy performed his Shane Spencer imitation. No second thoughts were even given to Greg Bird not even making the post season rosters.

Much like a baker who puts the bread in the oven, I was more than willing to brush my hands of the Greg Bird experience. It seemed time to move on.

But one thing that seems to hold true about Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone is a loyalty you would not expect in a kill or be killed game. Cashman and Boone have remained steadfast concerning not only Greg Bird, but also Gary Sanchez after the bad egg he laid in 2018 himself.

Personally, I was not confident of the Yankees' first base position heading into the 2019 season. Sure, the Luke Voit thing was fun. But is it sustainable? And would a Voit / Bird platoon work? The first alarming thing about a platoon is that Bird hit lefties better than right-handed pitching in 2018, which, granted, is not saying much. But not only is the offensive tandem worrisome, but the fielding between the two is terrible.

I have long stated that a first baseman's defense is one of the most underrated aspects of baseball. If you have a squad full of ground ball pitchers and an infield of very young players, then you need first basemen who can make all the scoops and have all that footwork down. Neither Voit or Bird are strong defenders and their marks on Fangraphs.com and others show that to be the case.

Here we are in Spring Training once again. Both Voit and Greg Bird have had a good start in smacking the ball around. Of course, it is all meaningless at this point, but it is encouraging. And that is the problem.

I do not want to get sucked into the Greg Bird narrative again. I do not want to read articles about how he is finally where he needs to be both physically and mentally. I do not want to hear it when Boone says that Bird could be a large contributor this season. We have been down that road too many times before and, each time, it has turned to dust.

But....what if they are right? Nuh uh! Can't be! Won't happen! But what if it does? Darnit! It's happening again...