Not a Fan of ball in Japan

The Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners will begin their regular season schedules playing each other for two games in Japan. The games will occur nearly a full week before anyone else is playing regular season baseball. Why is that? Do people really like this idea? After the two games are played, the two teams will not have any more regular season baseball until a week later. Does that make any sense? This is all about Bud Selig's world view and taking baseball's popularity around the world. But is it necessary?

Perhaps this writer is being a bit of a curmudgeon. Things are supposed to be linear, at least in this mind. Everyone is supposed to start the season at the same time. Opening Day should be one grand event where all thirty teams are in action and we can all celebrate together. Instead, we'll have an odd standings for a week where two teams will have a record and the rest of the teams won't. And then when the regular season opens on April 4, two teams won't be heard from until April 6.

The first question is whether baseball needs this. It is easy to see that Japan is already extremely big on baseball. Since the sport was introduced over there in the early Twentieth Century, the passion for the sport  has been transforming. As such, there is already much interest in Japan for all baseball--their own and in the majors. Many of Japan's biggest stars have signed in the majors and media interest has been through the roof over there. So it is not that these games will pique that interest any higher. It will be nice for the Japanese fans to see Ichiro Suzuki in action again. But still. What is to be gained by the exercise?

Is this a bone that Selig has thrown the Japanese for the hundreds of millions of dollars the fans there spend on MLB merchandise? What about the Mariners' season ticket holders? They lose two home games plus the Mariners lose those gate receipts and all that goes with it. The venders and parking garages lose two games of income. Since the A's struggle with attendance anyway, why not at least have made these two games Athletic home games?  ***Update. The schedule was looked at incorrectly. The A's are considered the home team. But still...

And how does the exercise affect the two teams that have to go over there to play? It has to disrupt the springs of those two teams as their pitchers can't get their full spring reps to get ready for the season. It has to affect the young and fringe players who needed a full spring schedule to make their cases to make the big club. Sure, there will be some exhibitions over there and that will help. But it's not like facing big league pitching here.

It all just seems kind of pointless. Plus, it makes the start of the season messy. This may make Bud Selig all squishy inside, but the feelings here just fall kind of flat. Not a Fan of ball in Japan. Not a Fan at all.

Eric Wedge Has Lost His Mind

There are not too many occasions during a baseball off season when a story makes your jaw drop to the floor. The Pujols signing by the Angels and the Pineda/Montero deal were two such occasions. Now there's a third. Eric Wedge has told the press that Ichiro Suzuki will be moved out of the lead off spot to third in the line up and Chone Figgins will lead off for the Seattle Mariners. What!?

Wedge has hinted all off season that he was toying with the idea of moving Ichiro out of the lead off spot. This site has already posted a long dissertation on the merits of such a move.  The conclusion of that piece was that Ichiro should start the season and lead off, just like he always has. The only other Mariners' player even considered for the lead off spot was Dustin Ackley. Never in the wildest dreams did it ever occur to move Chone Figgins into that spot.

If Ichiro was moved out of the first spot, then second in the order made sense. But third? That's not as far-fetched as it sounds. In his career, Suzuki is a .327 hitter with a .400 on-base percentage with men on base and with runners in scoring position, Suzuki is a .333 hitter with a .436 on-base percentage. Pitchers rarely want to pitch to the guy with men on base as he has been intentionally walked 168 times in his career in those two situations. But this isn't the same Ichiro we saw a few years ago. This Ichiro is an older one who struggled last season.

But the real kicker is Chone Figgins leading off. Figgins has a combined on-base percentage of .309 as a member of the Seattle Mariners. Sure, Figgins had a healthy on-base percentage in his years with the Angels and even walked 101 times in 2009. But Figgins has fallen off a cliff since 2009. And he's going to be 34 in 2012 so he's not going to somehow relive his prime years.

Okay, let's give Figgins the benefit of doubt. Perhaps he can return to his 70 walks per season average. If he can do that, Wedge is a genius. If Figgins is permanently stuck in the hole he dug last season, Wedge is going to look like an idiot. But hey, nothing is gained without a little risk, right?

There is an old adage that you put your best hitter in the number three hole. The Mariners' best hitter right now is not Ichiro Suzuki. Dustin Ackley is the Mariners' best hitter and Montero may prove to the the second best. Wedge's pronouncement is a shock. Perhaps he's smarter than the rest of us. Time will tell.

The Ichiro Lead Off Debate

Eric Wedge is talking tough about Ichiro Suzuki according to an Associated Press piece reported on ESPN.com. Wedge is quoted in the report as saying, "Ultimately it's not just about Ichiro, it's about our club and his 24 other teammates." Those are some pretty strong words. If you read between the lines there, Wedge is saying that he can't be worried about what Ichiro thinks. Does that statement also hint that what Ichiro thinks is a problem? Could be. The bigger question isn't whether Wedge has a problem or not with Ichiro's pride. The question is whether Ichiro should be the Mariners' lead off batter.

It is very easy to believe the sky is falling concerning Ichiro Suzuki. He is entering the 2012 season as a 38 year old who showed major signs that time caught up with him last year. He failed for the first time to reach 200 hits and his final slash line of, .273/.310/.337 really exacerbates the reality that Suzuki doesn't walk enough for a lead off batter if he fails to hit. The outfielder walked only 26 non-intentional times in 721 plate appearances (he was intentionally walked 13 times). His low walk rate has always been his reality (6.2 percent lifetime), but his ability to hit safely better than most humans made that somewhat acceptable. When the batting average falls to .272, the low walk rate becomes more of an issue.

And it's not as if Ichiro just had a bad half of a season in 2011. Both his first half and second half were very similar. But there is a glimmer of hope that Ichiro Suzuki could rebound a little bit. A lot of Ichiro's metrics remained static in 2011. His line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates were all within his career norms. So were his strikeouts. The only real difference was the number of his batted balls that fell safely in play. Ichiro has a career BABIP of .354. The three years prior to 2011 included these BABIP rates respectively: .334, .384, .353. Last year his BABIP was .294, easily the lowest of his career. Without knowing the quality of that contact (MPH off the bat), the assumption could be made that there is room for some bounce back.

There is this myth that the lead off position is this haven of on-base heaven in baseball. That is more wish than reality. Lead off batters in all of baseball last year had a slash line of .267/.328/.398. In 2010 it was, .264/.329/.384. Lead off batters who have a high on-base percentage are more the exception than the rule (market inefficiency?). Ichiro's average was above the average while his on-base percentage and slugging were lower than league average.

But what if he were to recover some? Three different projections systems were consulted for this post. Ichiro's projected slash lines in the three: .303/.347/.377, .291/.332/.359 and .303/.344/.382. All three of those projections see some bounce back and put Ichiro's average and on-base well above league average.

To see what Eric Wedge is looking at in the big picture, some discussion needs to take place about other lead off options the manager might have. Dustin Ackley's name comes to mind immediately. In Ackley's debut season in 2011, his on-base percentage was .348--well above Ichiro's. Ackley finished his minor league career with an on-base percentage of .381. Projections from three different systems put Ackley's on-base percentage in 2012 anywhere from .341 to .373. If Ackley can do that, he becomes just slightly more effective as a lead off batter than Ichiro's projections. Is there anyone else?

Justin Smoak has very good patience at the plate, but he's the power hitter you want in the middle of the line up. The same goes for Jesus Montero. Franklin Gutierrez has a .310 lifetime on-base percentage. That doesn't work. Mike Carp is counted on for power. Brendan Ryan doesn't hit enough.

The bottom line is that Ichiro and Ackley are the only two on the team that make sense in the line up position. They are, in fact, interchangeable in their ability to get on base. Since Ackley has more ability to get extra base hits, it seems to make more sense to bat him second behind Ichiro rather than in front of him. Perhaps Eric Wedge is trying to motivate Ichiro Suzuki. In the last season of his contract, if Ichiro wants to continue playing beyond 2012, he will have enough motivation to improve on what was a lost 2011. The Mariners should start the season with Ichiro Suzuki as their lead off batter and give it fifty games to see what happens.

Top Ten Position Players of the Past Ten Years

Putting lists together is sort of like trying to run across the highway. Somebody is bound to run you over for your efforts. But lists are fun even if, in the end, people end up poking holes in your logic. For this little exercise, this writer went to Fangraphs and used their handy and amazing leader board to find the top ten position players for the past ten years (2002 through 2011). The criteria used was fWAR. Again, you can poke holes in that logic. But so what? The amazing thing about the list is that all of the players on it are still playing. Yeah, a few of them are getting ancient now, but they are all still with us. Such long term performance signifies greatness in this writer's book. There are a few obvious players on the list and a few that may surprise you.

So here's the list in descending order with a few comments:

1. Albert Pujols: (80.1 fWAR): Ten of Albert's eleven year career are covered by these stats. And they are amazing. Everything about his ten seasons lead the world. In those seasons, he had the highest wOBA, the highest wRC+, the highest ISO, the highest slugging percentage, the highest batting average, the highest on base percentage. He scored the most runs, drove in the most runs, hit the most homers and struck out fewer than any player that follows him on this list. Incredible. But what about the next ten years?
2. Alex Rodriguez: (67.9 fWAR): This is the Pujols Era and everyone else is chicken fodder. But with all the negative press he's received, A-Rod has been an amazing player. And even with a few years of late that were below his standards (he is getting old), he's been just below Albert in most every category.
3. Carlos Beltran (51.2 fWAR): Surprised? You shouldn't be. Not if you have been a steady reader here in the FanDome. Beltran easily earned (as the Fan proved) his Mets contract with a decade of good defense, good base running and consistently good offensive numbers. He is the best centerfielder of his era.
4. Chase Utley (50.6 fWAR): Utley has the fewest games played over the ten years of all the players on this list. But when he has played, he's been amazing. Great fielding metrics, very good base running and good offensive numbers. He might not be the best second baseman in baseball right now, but over the last decade, he has been.
5. Lance Berkman (49.7 fWAR): Another surprise. Tucked away on the Astros for most of his career, few have really noticed how excellent he has been. It took a comeback year for a higher profile Cardinal team to show how really good Lance Berkman is and has been. Berkman has the second highest on base percentage on our list and third best slugging percentage and wOBA. If it wasn't for his positional adjustment (1B), his less than stellar fielding and his leaden base running, Berkman could easily have been third on our list. Even so, he's been far better than most realize.
6. Ichiro Suzuki (46.9 fWAR): Ichiro along with the next two players on our list built his high fWAR based just as much on defense as he has on offense. He's not a great on-base guy and he has shown no power, his ability to blow past 200 hits every season takes somewhat of a hit because of those facts. But according to Fangraphs, Ichiro has saved 104.6 runs with his defense over the past ten years and has been an above average base runner. This writer would put him in the Hall of Fame already.
7. Adrian Beltre (46.7 fWAR): Seattle Mariner fans might choke a bit on this one. But he was much better for them than people thought. And his overall defense for the past ten years make him the best defensive player on our list with 138+ runs saved at third base. His offense had some off seasons (hence the Seattle hate) but he's averaged 28 homers and 88 runs driven in over the ten year period. Hardly shabby. He's been a great, great player.
8. Scott Rolen (46.3 fWAR): Rolen is the third of four third baseman that will make our list. And he is a surprise of sorts to be here. But he has saved 114.5 runs with his defense and his ten year slash line of: .281/.360/.485 is not chopped liver either. It's a shame that injuries have kept him from building more WAR and being the household name that he should be. He's played the third least amount of games of our list of ten players.
9. Chipper Jones (46.2 fWAR): It's a shame that a lot of baseball fans will only remember the last couple of broken down memories of Chipper Jones. His offense might be the third best of our ten players with a ten year slash line of .302/.404/.521. Defense has chipped away a bit of his value and he hasn't been a great runner on the bases. But he's a first ballot HOF guy in this Fan's book.
10. Derek Jeter (45.6 fWAR): Yes, Jeter has given away 48.9 runs on defense over the ten year period. But he's also averaged 189 hits, 100 runs scored, 70 RBI and 20 stolen bases. His base running over the decade was excellent (though he's stumbled the last two years). His offense put him four wins above replacement above Jimmy Rollins over the same time period.

So that's the Fan's list. The compiler will now commence dodging speeding cars on that highway! Happy Boxing Day everyone!

Hoping Ichiro Doesn't Make it to 200

Robbie Knopf over at isportsweb made an excellent argument that Ichiro Suzuki's off season is not due to age but due to luck. And while Knopf does an excellent job at using BABIP on ground balls and line drives to show that Ichiro is simply unlucky this season, this writer isn't quite convinced. What we need here to prove Knopf's case is a statistic that measures the MPH a ball comes off a batter's bat to see a little more what kind of contact a batter is making. Line drives are not created equal. Even if Knopf is correct, the Fan still hopes Ichiro does not make it to 200 hits.

That seems mean-spirited, doesn't it? The chase is compelling because Suzuki has done it for ten straight seasons. And he has an outside chance at doing it for the eleventh. With twenty games left on the Mariners' schedule, Ichiro needs 37 hits. Why would any writer want to deny a player from making that kind of mark for the eleventh straight season? Why indeed. It's certainly not because this writer hates Ichiro Suzuki. On the contrary, it's been a joy to watch him play for all these years. No, the real reason is for Ichiro's sake.

Say he does make it to 200 hits with a flurry at the end. The flurry would lift his final batting average to around .280 and his OPS to perhaps .650. And that's the problem. If Ichiro does indeed make it with said flurry, his numbers will still be lackluster. Wouldn't that cheapen his accomplishments to date? Here's what the Fan means by that. The run of seasons that Ichiro has reached the 200 milestone has been amazing. It's one of the coolest runs by a player in history. But it comes with its share of detractors. Critics have said that he should have taken more walks and hit less singles and he would have been a more valuable player. But you could always counter those arguments by pointing to the 200 hits for ten straight seasons and the .331 lifetime batting average (not to mention the 52 fWAR compiled in those ten years).

If Ichiro finishes with 200 hits or more, then defenders of Ichiro would lose the one bullet in their guns as the 200 hits would look cheap in light of his OPS and overall season. "See?" the critics would say, "Anyone could make it to 200 hits if they played every game and slapped the ball around enough." The truth of the streak isn't the 200 hits each season. The real truth is that he's averaged 225 hits a season. That should be the compelling part of the story. But since we western civilization humans enjoy our round numbers, it's the 200 that stands in our minds. If you took away that proclivity we humans have for those round numbers, the 225 hit average is the thing to celebrate. 

If Ichiro Suzuki gets to 200 hits with a .650 OPS, then you lose some luster on what has been one of the most amazing batting feats in the history of baseball. It would cheapen it. It would be much better to leave the streak behind at ten so that those ten years could stand the adoration test. This writer, for one, hopes he doesn't make it--not because this writer wants to deny a player a milestone, but because those first ten seasons need to be appreciated for years to come.

Ichiro Suzuki - Pride and Sadness

The game between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees on Monday night was indicative in how far the Mariners have fallen. The game was just as indicative of how far Ichiro Suzuki has fallen. The former Japanese star has played in all but two of the Mariners' 102 games after playing in every single game last year. And while last year showed some slippage in the hitting machine that is Ichiro, this year's version isn't even close. At the age of 37, is this the curtain call?

Watching the game last night, the erect and proud frame of Ichiro is still evident. After he struck out in the first inning, there was still a carriage in his frame as he walked deliberately back to the dugout. But there is no longer the zip in his step or the hop in his play. His grace in the outfield is missing as he plods after balls in the corner and there is no longer the rifle display when he throws the ball back into the infield.

Watching Ichiro, one gets the idea of how a samurai carried himself.  There is the flair of a bullfighter. You never lost sight of the fact that he was carrying the pride of his country in each step and with each pointing of his bat-sword held at the pitcher as he waited for the pitch. Each pitch was a challenge like the charge of a bull. With a swing unlike any we've ever seen in American baseball, Ichiro's bat was like a magic wand. It seemed he could do anything he wanted to a pitcher. The legend continued that he could hit forty homers if he wanted. But it was his speed that set him apart. This generation had never seen that mastery of a bat combined with that blinding speed.

That speed has failed Ichiro. He no longer beats out infield hits. Over the course of his career, an astounding 35 percent of every ball he put in play resulted in him standing on a base. This year, only 29 percent of his batted balls result in a hit. His BABIP was never below .300...until this year. His string of 200+ hit seasons seems sure to end. He would have to find a way to deliver 88 hits in the Mariners' last sixty games. It's possible of course. If he played in every game and got his current average of 4.2 at bats per game, he would have to bat .349 the rest of the season to reach 200 hits. That seemed more possible for a different Ichiro from a different time.

Many have said that Ichiro has refused to hit for power for the sake of his batting average. But with a paltry fourteen doubles, three triples and one homer, his slugging percentage is easily the lowest of his career. At .318, his slugging percentage is 68 points lower than his previous low of .386 in 2008. That season also produced Ichiro's lowest OPS of .747. His OPS this year is .633. Perhaps an even greater indignity is his OPS+ of 82 this season.

No matter what fielding metric you look at, Ichiro Suzuki has slipped. He sits at -3 according to the Fielding Bible. UZR has him at -8.4. Range Runs Above Average has him at -7.9. His range used to be listed at 2.30 or higher. Now it sits at 1.69. That just isn't Ichiro in right field anymore.

Ichiro Suzuki's career has been debated almost since it began. His lack of power and his lack of desire to take a walk at the plate offset his ability to hit, run and field for a lot of evaluaters. And yet, both Fangraphs and Baseball-reference.com have similar WAR computations for him and both systems show that he averaged a WAR of over five a year for his ten big league seasons before this one. He has earned $111 million in his career with the Mariners and if this Fan has done his math correctly, has been about a $200 million player during that time. Power and patience or not, Ichiro has been a great player while drumming up huge interest and business for the Mariners and Major League Baseball.

It is sad to see Ichiro like this. It's sad to see a warrior without the physical ability he once had playing for a team that has been awful for two seasons now. He has not been part of any trade rumors, but wouldn't it be something if there was a last minute deal and Ichiro went to a contender and finished this season with a flourish and in the spotlight?

That probably won't happen. And if it doesn't, do this Fan a favor and when you think of Ichiro Suzuki, don't think of this season. Think about how he burst on the scene in 2001 and won the MVP with his bat, his arm and his legs. Think about the 2,244 hits in his first ten seasons. Think about his 81 percent success rate to go along with his 409 steals. Think about the eight straight seasons scoring more than 100 runs to start his career and the ten straight 200 hit seasons. Think about how since 2001, only thirty total seasons of 200 hits have been recorded and Ichiro has a third of them.

Yes, remember all those things when he makes his acceptance speech in the Hall of Fame a few years from now. Just pretend this season isn't happening.

More Than 200 Hits, Less Than 81 Runs - Ichiro's Season in Perspective

A couple of days ago, this space featured a post about how Ichiro Suzuki scored only 74 runs even though he had 214 hits and was on base 262 times (not including the times he hit into a force out and was on base). This remarkable feat of having that many hits and scoring that few runs has happened only ten times in major league history. Jayson Stark put Ichiro's season in perspective by noting that Ichiro scored 74 runs on 214 hits and was outscored by Mark Reynolds (79 runs) even though Reynolds had 115 fewer hits. To further put this feat in perceptive, or simply just to celebrate its silliness, here are the ten times a batter got 200 or more hits and scored 80 or fewer runs:

1. Michael Young - Texas Rangers (2007). Young had 201 hits that season and walked 47 times. He was hit by the pitch 5 times. He stole 13 bases, hit nine homers, a triple and had 37 doubles. Yet he only scored 80 times. Ian Kinsler scored 16 more runs on that team than Young despite getting on base 55 times less that season and playing 26 less games. The Rangers scored 816 runs that season and Young only scored 9.8% of them.
2. Garrett Anderson - California Angels (2003). 2003 was a bad season for the Angels. But it was a good year for Anderson. He had 201 hits, walked 31 times and remarkably, never got hit by a pitch. But for his 231 times on base, he only scored 80 runs. What makes Anderson's season all the more remarkable is that he hit 29 homers, led the league with 45 doubles and had 4 triples. Yet, he only scored 51 times in the 202 times he was on base and didn't hit a homer. How can you be on third or second 49 times and only score 51 non-homer times!?
3. Steve Garvey - Los Angeles Dodgers (1980). Garvey played 163 games in 1980 (every game) and had 200 hits. He had 26 homers and 27 doubles (and a triple) and was on base 239 times and only scored 78 runs. Take away the homers and he scored 52 times in 213 times on base. Crazy. The Dodgers only scored 663 runs that season but still finished in second place. Davey Lopes, Ron Cey and one other player on that team outscored Garvey.
4. Joe Sewell - Cleveland Indians (1925). Sewell had 204 hits that season, 64 walks and was hit by four pitches. He had 37 doubles and a triple to go along with one homer. That's 272 times on base and he scored 78 runs. That wasn't a bad hitting team either. They had four guys in the line up that hit over .300 including Tris Speaker who hit .389. Sewell's teammate, Charlie Jamieson was on base 242 times that season and scored 109 runs. Sewell still made it to the Hall of Fame just like Ichiro will. If you want a stat to pull out at a party, try Sewell. He stuck out only 114 times in his 14 year career. One of the most amazing stats of all time.
5. Kirby Puckett - Minnesota Twins (1989). Puckett had a great season in 1989. He hit .339 with 215 hits. He was on base a total  of 268 times. Puckett hit 45 doubles, 4 triples and 9 homers and stole 11 bases. Still, he managed to score only 75 runs. In what must have been a frustrating season, the 1989 Twins were second in the Americna League in batting, on base percentage and slugging and Puckett STILL led the team in scoring with those measly 75.
6. Ichiro Suzuki - Seattle Mariners (2010). You already know the gory details here. The Mariners scored only 513 runs all season. At least Ichiro scored a higher percentage of his team's runs than Young did.
7. Willie Montanez - Giants and Braves (1976). Montanez played 163 games that season in what was hit best campaign. He had 206 hits, 36 walks and was hit by a pitch once. That's 243 times he was on base and he scored only 74 times. He hit 26 doubles, 2 triples and had 11 homers that season. Montanez played 14 seasons with nine different teams. He led the league in grounding into double plays twice with 26 (including this year in question). He did one other triva worthy feat. In 1975, he drove in 101 runs despite hitting only ten homers.
8. Felipe Alou - Atlanta Braves (1968). 210 hits, 48 walks, 37 doubles, 5 triples, 11 homers and 4 HBP and he only scored 72 runs despite 262 times on base. He stole 11 bases so he was in scoring position a lot! 1968 was the famous year of the pitcher with makes Alou's season all that much more remarkable. The Braves scored only 514 runs that season despite Hank Aaron, Joe Torre, Felix Millan and Alou all having solid seasons.
9. Eddie Brown - Boston Braves (1926). 201 hits, 23 walks, 2 HBP, 31 doubles, 8 triples, 2 homers. 226 times on base and he scored only 71 times. "Glass Arm Eddie" only played seven seasons and 1926 was his best though he did hit over .300 in four of his seven seasons. The Braves were a bad team and scored only 624 runs in 1926 despite three batters hitting over .300.
10. George Sisler - Boston Braves (1929). Gorgeous George Sisler spent his entire Hall of Fame career with bad teams. The 1929 Braves were a terrible team. They did manage to score 684 runs. As for Sisler, that season, at the age of 36, he had 205 hits and walked 33 times. He hit 40 doubles and 8 triples and he was hit by 4 pitches. Despite all those times on base, he scored 67 runs that season despite three .300+ hitters in the line up. The funny thing is that earlier in his career, Sisler, who hit .406 and .420 in his two greatest seasons, scored over 120 runs several times. But not in 1929.

As you can see from the above list, what Ichiro Suzuki did in 2010 is not unique, but it's certainly rare. He joins a pretty cool collection of players that bore the frustration of what it was like to be stranded on base over and over again.

The Strange Season of Ichiro Suzuki

Nothing illustrates the futile offensive season of the Seattle Mariners more than the strange season by Ichiro Suzuki. It wasn't a strange season by what Ichiro did. He did what he always does. For the fifth season in a row and for the seventh time in his ten year big league career, Ichiro led the league in hits. It's what he didn't do that seems so crazy. He didn't score many runs. His run total came to 74. He scored that few runs despite being on base 259 times. That's unbelievable.

June was the most amazing month. In June, Ichiro hit .322. He walked 11 times (his highest month for walks) and so he was on base 47 times that month. He scored seven times. Seven! And two of those hits were homers. So that means that he scored 5 times in the 45 times he got on base without hitting a homer. That seems bad enough, but of those 45 times, he hit 8 doubles. Plus he had 8 stolen bases. So of those 45 times on base in June without a homer, he was on second base at least 16 times and scored only 5 runs.

When Ichiro led off an inning, he got on base 105 times. He hit three homers, so we'll throw those out. So he was on base 102 times leading off an inning. He hit 13 doubles leading off an inning and two triples. He scored 38 runs in those situations.

This Fan finds all of that remarkable.

Is Age Catching Up With Ichiro?

Ichiro Suzuki is in his tenth season with the Seattle Mariners and once again he is batting over .300. But it's a quiet .300. His slugging percentage is the lowest of his career. His OPS+ is the second lowest of his career. The fielding statistics show him to be down from last year (but still very effective). His batting average (.309) is the lowest of his career. He will likely make it to 200 hits again for an incredible run of ten straight seasons, but he will have to hustle to get there as he needs 46 hits with 42 games to go. But he'll likely finish at 205 to 210. His career average is 229. So that will be off. The question is: Is Ichiro Suzuki, at 36 years of age, getting old?


Well, let's see. He's stolen more bases this year than last year. He's been caught stealing less. On the other hand, he is striking out at a higher rate than his career average. Ichiro has struck out 10% of his lifetime at bats. This year, he is striking out around 13.6% of his at bats. It's time to look at the splits and see if anything can be detailed that would helps us.

Ichiro has been a slightly better hitter his entire career versus left-handed pitchers than the other side. That figure is surprising. This year is no different. Ichiro hits equally well at home or on the road and this year is no different. In Ichiro's career, he's only a .295 hitter when the Mariners lose. But this year he is actually a better hitter when the team loses. So that defeats any theory that being on such a terrible team has defeated his will or his drive. That doesn't appear likely by these statistics.

If you look at Ichiro's career, his batting average is similar for every inning he bats. In other words, over the years if he bats in the first inning (which he always does since he leads off), his average is little different than if he bats in the third inning or fourth or fifth and so on. This year, though, he's only batting .246 in the first innings. Does that mean anything? Maybe.

Ah, but there is a statistic that seems to indicate that Ichiro has shown his age a bit. During Ichiro's career, he has batted .314 with a .785 OPS against power pitchers, .327 with an .805 OPS against pitchers with an average fastball and .343 with an .820 OPS against finesse pitchers (all stats according to baseball-reference.com). The strikeouts against each category of pitchers were all the same career-wise. His batting average for balls in play (BABIP) against all three of those types of pitchers has been around .350.

This year, Ichiro is still hitting finesse pitchers at a .333 pace with an OPS of .803 and is at .314 against average fastball pitchers with a .731 OPS. His BABIP is .390 against finesse pitchers and .347 against average fastball pitchers. But Ichiro has really struggled with power pitchers. His average is .246 against them and his OPS is .640 with a BABIP of .306. This would seem to indicate that Ichiro can't hit a good fastball as well as he has in the rest of his career. That might also explain his struggles in the first inning when starters try to establish their fastball early.

Of course, this could all be a statistical anomaly for Ichiro as last year, he hit .379 against power pitchers with an incredible .454 BABIP. So he was either incredibly lucky against them or he just nailed them all year. In either case, Ichiro is still an effective player. He's probably not worth the $18 million the Mariners are paying him with a 106 OPS+ (just barely above league average) and a paltry 2.4 WAR (FanGraphs has his WAR listed at 3.0 because they rate his fielding higher than B-R does). According to FanGraphs, there are 18 more valuable right fielders as batters than Ichiro. But his fielding--according to FanGraphs--brings up his value to fifth among that group.

It is reasonable to suggest that at 36, Ichiro is not the player he was five years ago. That wouldn't be unusual or any kind of knock on the Japanese star. Nothing can take away his history as a one of a kind hitting machine. It's just a simple reminder that time marches on even for players as good as Ichiro.

The Mariners Sure Are a Mess

Remember the famous scene in the Mutiny on the Bounty, where Fletcher Christian (played by Marlon Brando, not Mel Gibson) puts Captain Bligh on the little dinghy? That's how Seattle manager, Don Wakamatsu, has to feel right now. The poor guy has not had a fun year. Since this writer is just a blogger...ahem...and not an insider, the Fan doesn't know how much input Wakamatsu had in the personnel decisions of his team. If he had a lot of input, then he deserves to be the old Captain in that scene. If he had no input, then he still stuck in the dinghy trying to hold onto his dignity as he will still attempt to captain his little ship and get it home.

In the latest story, there has been a lot of conversation about moving Ichiro Suzuki to a more productive spot in the line up. The captain...err...manager said that isn't going to happen since it might mess Ichiro up if he moves from his comfort position. While that is a bunch of bull, friends, it's still the right call. Ichiro isn't the problem. He's getting on base at least reasonably well. If they can't drive him in with the guys that are behind him, that's not his fault.

Let's look at it another way. If Ichiro isn't leading off the game and bats say, third or fourth, who is he going to drive in? He's the only guy on that team right now who can hit. So it doesn't matter if he leads off or bats second or third or fourth or fifth. He's still going to be the only guy who can hit. So what would you accomplish? Let's face it, the lead off guy is going to get the most at bats over the course of the season. Why not at least let your best guy...your only good guy...get those at bats?

The other side of the argument is that Ichiro has batted .338 over his career with runners in scoring position with a .441 OBP. He has batted .333 over his career in high leverage situations. Yes, that makes sense. When guys are on base, he gets a lot of free passes and hits. That is certainly helpful. But again, what good does it do if nobody is on base? Who is going to lead off? Figgins? He's batting .195. Jose Lopez? He has a .240 OBP. Jack Wilson? He's hurt and before he was hurt, he had a .275 OBP. Gutierrez? Well, maybe that makes sense. At least he has a .366 OBP, but he's also one of the guys you want in the three/four hole.

No, the problem is that Milton Bradley, Junior Griffey and/or Mike Sweeney, et al, can't or aren't getting the job done. To put it in a more dramatic way, Gutierrez and Ichiro have been on base a total of 144 times going into Tuesday's game. That number means that the two guys out of a nine batter line up have accounted for 28% of the number of times the entire team has been on base. Ichiro alone has accounted for 15%. The Mariners are dead last in the American League in batting average and slugging percentage and are next to last in On Base Percentage. That isn't going to change by moving Ichiro in the line up.

Here's what the Mariners should do: Keep Ichiro at lead off. Bat Langerhans second (he has nine walks is 31 plate appearances. Sit Griffey, release Sweeney and Bradley. Put Michael Saunders back in there every day. Bat Figgins last until he figures it out. And for gosh sakes, get a catcher, any catcher. Oh, and one more thing: Tell Ichiro to stop trying to steal bases. He's 37 for gosh sakes and is getting thrown out way too often.

Poor old Don Wakamatsu can't win...literally and figuratively. It doesn't help any when he has to answer stupid question every night after having to write out such a stupid line up.

Ichiro Suzuki Ejected

For the first time in his professional career (Japan or USA), Ichiro Suzuki was ejected from a game after arguing a called strike three. Apparently, after Ichiro drew a line in the sand, the umpire thought the Japanese hitting sensation stepped over it. The Fan's only question was whether Ichiro used an interpreter in the argument that ensued after the ejection.

Ichiro and Mariners Shock Rivera and Yankees

The Yankees had their winning formula going. Get a lead going into the eighth inning, bring in Hughes and then close it out with Rivera. Hughes did his part in the eighth and Rivera had two outs in the ninth. That's usually a done deal. Didn't turn out that way. In case you missed it, here is the video.

Rivera has 40 saves this season and had only blown one of them before last night. He's been nearly automatic all season. But you get the feeling watching Ichiro that he can hit a homer any time he wants to. Much like Wade Boggs with the Red Sox, Ichiro would rather get his hits then try for homers. But it seems that if he wanted to, he could hit thirty without much effort. But the hit his batting average would take is something Ichiro can't stomach, so it doesn't happen.

But he is just the kind of hitter that would take Rivera deep. Rivera lives on the inside part of the plate. Ichiro does not have one kind of approach like most hitters. He varies his approach to a pitch depending on where it is. Against slow stuff, he is just as likely to run up the batter's box to hit it as he is to stay deep and on his back foot to explode into the ball. If you watch the video, Ichiro stepped a little into the bucket and got his hips out of the way quickly to turn on Rivera's inside cutter.

In hindsight, that ability that Ichiro has to alter his approach should have led Rivera to work around him. First base was open. Rivera should have at least stayed outside. It was a poor choice and the cutter got too much of the inside part of the plate and Rivera paid for it.

It's shocking and it's not. Not with Ichiro and the kind of hitter that he is.