Showing posts with label Jason Varitek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jason Varitek. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Jason Varitek Perspective

Jason Varitek is set to retire tomorrow from Major League Baseball and of course, such news always requires some sort of retrospective analysis. Was he a Hall of Fame player? Where does he rank among catchers of his generation? Yes, such news is always our cue to write something to sum up a career. Such retrospectives are complicated when such a retiring player played for a high profile team. And few teams have had a higher profile than the Boston Red Sox during Varitek's career. When that happens, it becomes hard to sort through the hype of it all. Thanks to the East Coast Bias, the Red Sox and Yankees were the greatest show on earth during the time Varitek played in Boston. How can any perspective be gained with that kind of side show?

What did we hear during all of that hype? Varitek was the captain of the Red Sox. He was the leader of the pitching staff. He was the heart of the Boston Red Sox. His pitchers loved working with him. Perspective on Jason Varitek is just as difficult as it was over a month ago when Jorge Posada retired. Back then, this space concluded that Posada did not have a Hall of Fame career. Well, if Posada is not a Hall of Fame catcher, than neither is Jason Varitek, whose statistical totals pale in comparison to Posada. In fact, Varitek's closest comparable as a catcher is Ramon Hernandez and nobody is going to promote Hernandez for the Hall of Fame.

This space has also promoted the fantastic work of Mike Fast on framing pitches (Varitek was not very good in that study) and Bojan Koprivia's study of blocking pitches in the dirt (Varitek was just above league average). Baseball-reference.com lists Varitek as a catcher with a total negative value for his defense over his career. Fangraphs.com rated his defense even worse. Varitek's ability to throw out base runners was legendary in its awfulness. But in the end, does any of that matter? If not, than what does?

How about the fact that Jason Varitek caught Pedro Martinez 168 times. And in those games, Martinez had his highest strikeout to walk ratio and his lowest ERA of any catcher he ever threw to. That was magic. But was that Pedro's magic or was it a combination of Pedro and his catcher? Curt Schilling had three catchers that caught him more than 90 times. Of the three, Schilling had the highest strikeout to walk ratio with Varitek than the other two. Coincidence? Perhaps. Who knows. But it was fun to watch, wasn't it? Varitek was a part of the battery of the two best Red Sox pitchers of this recent generation.

For this observer, sometimes you have to get beyond the statistics that we all hang our hats on these days. Yes, Varitek had a career OPS+ of 98. Yes, when you add it all together, he wasn't that great defensively. No, he wasn't a Hall of Fame player. But during his time in Boston, the Red Sox won two World Series titles. Baseball is a team sport. It takes more than a great player for a team to win it all. It takes a team. Jason Varitek was a part of those teams. For generations of Red Sox fans, the team's heroics of 2004 and 2007 put an end to a long drought and a curse. Despite what the stats say or don't say, Jason Varitek was a part of that story. And this week a part of that story will fade away into history. Yaz might be in the Hall of Fame, but Jason Varitek will retire with two rings. That's the only perspective worth talking about.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Ugh. They Should Have Retired

Ken Griffey Jr. has always been a Fan favorite. And it was fine for him to have a swan song season in Seattle. But it should have ended there. Instead, the Kid has signed on for another year and once again, all an admiring and thankful Fan can do is hope that the latest off-season surgery will help.

The same with Jason Varitek. Other than leading the league in blocking balls in the dirt, Varitek no longer has anything to offer. His offense is gone and his throwing is gone too. But the Red Sox foolishing offered Varitek an option year and he took it. Now the Red Sox will have to endure another season of awkwardness with Victor Martinez playing first at times to keep him in the lineup.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

A Tale of Four Old Catchers

This post isn't a comparison really. Three of the old catchers we will be discussing start. The other just plays once a week. But what is really striking is how different old catchers age. Johnny Bench was basically done as a young man and even moved to the infield. Carlton Fisk excelled into his forties. Generally, catchers don't hold up over the long haul. After all, it's a tough position. Catchers get beat up every single game they are behind the plate. Part of their job is to smother balls in the dirt even when it means bruised chests and shoulders (and shins, etc.). The four catchers we are going to talk about have all aged differently. They are: Brad Ausmus, Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Varitek.

Brad Ausmus is now forty years old. In all those years, he's never been very good offensively. Well, he did have two seasons at league average. But he's averaged 61 on the OPS+ scale for the three seasons before this one. It's easy to state that nobody has ever paid Ausmus to hit. In fact, the only thing he ever led the league in was grounding into double-plays (2002). But he's always had a great reputation as a catcher behind the plate, not only defensively, but for his handling of pitchers. The Fan still doesn't know how you measure that kind of thing. During his prime, he did throw out anywhere from 35 to 48 percent of base runners trying to steal against him. That's pretty good. In 1914 games behind the plate, he's only had 61 passed balls in his career. That's pretty darn good too.

But the last four years haven't been great for Ausmus. Not only has he not hit well, but his caught stealing rate fell into the twenties. How can you explain then that a 40 year old catcher has thrown out 38% this year? Or that he has his highest batting average in fifteen years? Or that he has his highest OPS+ in nine years? You can't other than his playing time is way down and he picks his spots in odd starts. Still, it's a nice swan song for the old guy.

Ivan Rodriguez has been a major league catcher for nineteen years now. When you think of Rodriguez, you think of his arm. Always the arm. And his numbers back up the hype. He's thrown out 46% of base runners trying to steal in his career. That's a weapon. Since the ideal success rate for stealing is 70%, the 54% success rate versus Rodriguez is outstanding. And he is still dealing there. Even at 38 years of age, Rodriguez has thrown out 33% this year. Still very good.

The one thing about Ivan Rodriguez though is his hitting. For twelve years, he was an offensive force. In those twelve years, he averaged an OPS+ of 112. He won the MVP in 1998 when his OPS was .914. He still has a career batting average of .299. He is no longer a force. In fact, he has become a rather easy out, especially since he basically forgot how to take a walk for the last eight years. He's pretty much a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame unless the whispers of PED use become confirmed.

Jorge Posada got a later start than those last two guys. But he's just as old. Now 38, Posada is still dishing it pretty well at the plate. Since Posada became the regular Yankee catcher in 1998, he has only had a sub-100 OPS+ season since. His lifetime OPS+ is 124, which is outstanding for a catcher.

But Posada has never been nearly as good a defensive catcher as Ausmus and Rodriguez. His overall RTOT for his career is -15. Compare his 133 career passed balls in 15 seasons to Ausmus's 61 in 19 or Ivan Rodriguez's 122 in 19. Both Rodriguez and Posada have had run ins with pitchers over calling a game. You never hear that about Ausmus. And Posada hasn't been great at throwing out base stealers. His career 29% is way below the other two. He is at his career average this year in that category, which is a surprise for a 38 year old.

Jason Varitek was probably the soul of the Red Sox during their championship years. As such, he has been the Red Sox captain which speaks volumes about his leadership during that time. He has the reputation as a fiery guy who is great for pitchers. Those are all intangibles that can't be measured. But you can't discount them either. What can be said is that he was the starting catcher for two champions. You can't take that away from him.

Varitek was a good offensive catcher for a stretch too. Though it took him longer to break into the major leagues than the others (the 37 year old is in his 13th season), he had a nice five year stretch where he averaged an OPS+ around 120. But three of the last four years have been abysmal. In his early years, he didn't strike out that much. But in the last five seasons, he has averaged well over 100 strikeouts a season. His one saving grace is his ability to take a walk, something Ivan Rodriguez has never been very good at. Varitek has something else over the other three we've talked about: He's the only one of the four that has not led the league in grounding into double plays.

Varitek has been a good defensive catcher on the RTOT scale with a positive number for his career. But like Posada, he's never been great at throwing out runners. His career number of 24% is even worse than Posada's. So you can't lump him into the same category as Rodriguez and Ausmus. And unfortunately, this year has been historic in failing in that category. He's thrown out only 12% of base runners this season. He's been stolen on 106 times and has only caught 15 of them. Ugh! Those are similar to a certain former Dodgers/Mets catcher.

Of these four old catchers, all of them have had bright moments with playoff teams. All of them have been among the best of their era for differing reasons. Ausmus has had a nice swan song this year. Ivan Rodriguez is no longer a valuable major leaguer. Posada is still an elite offensive catcher. Jason Varitek unfortunately, looks like he has played one season too many.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Just One of Those Days

Ever have one of those days where the entire day seemed uphill? Where everything you picked up or tried to pick up ended on the floor and every job you attempted had to be done twice or three times to get correct? Yeah. It's been one of those days. Not sure what this post will do to correct things. Surely moods aren't the best moods to write posts from. Heck, that was a lousy sentence with poor construction. See?


As long as things seem more of the dark cloud variety today rather than the silver lining, this post might as well focus on some negative things. Some of them this space predicted long ago and some were just so surprising that it would have been impossible to predict. Either way, there is no joy in reporting on them. They just are what they are.

Let's start with the Cubs. Harden pitched another game on Wednesday and bears no resemblance to the pitcher he has always been before. He lasted all of three innings, walked three and gave up five hits. Granted, the Cubs played shoddy defense behind him and maybe that is the most telling thing about the Harden this year and last. But that can't completely explain how last year he was a combined 10-2 in 25 starts with a WHIP around 1 and 96 hits in 148 innings. This year, he has the same 25 starts and his WHIP is around 1.3 and he's given up 117 hits in 138 innings. That's still pretty impressive except that he only gave up eleven homers last year and has given up 23 this year. Plus, he's only averaged about five and a half innings a start.

For a while, it seemed that by the time Milton Bradley finished the season, his stats would be fairly respectable. But he has gone into another tailspin and is now likely to finish the season below .400 in slugging percentage and below .800 in OPS. Hardly what the Cubs were hoping for. He did manage to play his 123rd game Wednesday night, so that, at least, exceeded expectations.

What about Geovany Soto? He was one of the best catchers in the game last year. This year, he's just a shell of that and his stats in almost every category (except errors) are down this year.

When it is all said and done, it just seems like Lou Piniella is not the right guy for that team. Sure, he has a right to be upset and disgusted with the likes of Bradley and Zambrano. But that's the nature of today's players. Pineilla is a throw back to another era, and people aren't the same as they were then.

There are three teams that fielded starting line ups Wednesday night that did not include a .300 hitter. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Is there something wrong with the water in that middle section of the country?

The Fan was feeling a little sorry for Mike Hampton today after it was learned that he had surgery to repair a completely torn rotator cuff and will miss all of next year. After all, the guy has tried really hard to compete and just can't stay healthy enough to do so. Then the Fan remembered all the money Hampton has made in the game of baseball and the sympathy went out the window. Hey, that's just the way the mood is today.

Speaking of health, Josh Hamilton will probably miss the rest of the year now. If you could have put Hamilton's numbers of a year ago on this year's Rangers team, how many more wins would the Rangers have? Would they still be in the race? As it is, the Rangers have died and Hamilton's season was stillborn from the start. It's hard to root against Hamilton who overcame so much to have a career again in baseball. His fragile health and his embarrassing bar fiasco have put an end to what was a pretty baseball story. Maybe next year.

Jimmy Rollins had an OBP of .287 the first half and .292 the second half. His second half has been more productive as his slugging percentage went from .355 the first half to .490 the second half. But even so, he has only walked ten times in the second half. Ten times. Can the Phillies really get away with a lead off batter in the playoffs who gets on base that seldom?

Earlier in the season, the Fan said that Jason Varitek was done. Comments were to the contrary as he started the year hitting some homers and stuff. But come on. His average is down to .213 and has particularly tanked since Victor Martinez came over from the Indians. He has had a brutal year with base runners stealing all over the place. Varitek's OPS and OPS+ are up slightly from a year ago, but slightly better than awful is still pretty bad.

And yeah, David Ortiz has hit 24 homers and his OPS the second half is .841 but he is still only batting .251 the second half. He is going to finish the season 30 points below last year in average, 40 points below last year's OBP, 50 points below last year's slugging percentage, 100 points behind last year's OPS and at least 25 points below last year's OPS+. And last year was a down year. Just to put things in perspective, Nick Swisher has a better OPS this season than Ortiz.

Incentive clauses are in the news these days. Magglio Ordonez reached enough at bats to automatically pick up his $18 million in salary next year. That's a lot of tamales for what is now a singles hitter. Kevin Millwood's next start will guarantee him $12 million next year. There is a lot of call for the Rangers to shut him down for the rest of the year. They can't. If they did, they would lose to the union and it will cost them that much anyway. And yeah, $12 million is a lot of money for a league average pitcher this year (his best in quite a while too).

Monday, May 04, 2009

Players Who Should Retire - Special Edition

After today's posts, it was hoped that the whole "Guys who should retire" topic would be over. But one guy who was left off the list on purpose forced one more post on the subject. That guy? Jason Varitek.

The Fan prattled on quite extensively during the off season on how Varitek wasn't wanted nor worth the kind of money he received last year. But then the Red Sox went ahead and signed him at a fairly low-ball price when Varitek really didn't have any other options.

The Fan stayed fairly quiet on the topic because he started off fairly decently and because the Red Sox Nation is a pretty aggressive bunch and the Fan didn't want to be hung in effigy. But after today, the Fan can't keep quiet on the subject any more, and not just because of Carl Crawford.

First, let the Fan state for the record that a stolen base can be blamed just as much on the pitcher as on the catcher. If the pitcher is too slow to home, then that gives the catcher virtually no chance to catch the runner. Watching the game today, it was obvious that some of Crawford's steals were on the pitcher. But Crawford stole six bases, and on some of those, Varitek had a chance to get him and didn't.

But even that is not the full story. The Bay Rays stole eight bases in the game including Crawford's six. One of the thefts was by the Bay Rays' catcher, his first stolen base of the season. Varitek didn't throw any of them out. That's 0-8. Plus he made a throwing error.

But even that is not the full story. Varitek went 0-3 with two strikeouts. And so in his last two games played, Varitek is 1-7 with four strikeouts. The prediction here is that Varitek, though batting at .239 for the season currently, will end up around the .220 mark or lower.

But even that is not the full story. The Red Sox starting pitching was supposed to be their big strength and so far, the starters are all struggling, except for Tim Wakefield, who, of course, Varitek doesn't catch. He is supposed to be so good with pitchers calling a game. If he gets that kind of credit when they do well, doesn't he deserve the same kind of credit when they don't?

As for Carl Crawford, he tied a modern day record for stolen bases in a game with his six. He joined Otis Nixon (6/16/1991) and Eric Young (6/30/1996) at the top of the modern day list. If you include the dead ball era, Eddie Collins did it twice in 1912 (ten days apart!). But if you go back even farther, George Gore and Billy Hamilton stole seven in a game in the 1800s. Gore's was the earliest, occurring on June 25, 1881. Egads! Now a Gore will claim he invented the stolen base!