Risk Can Bring Rewards - Thoughts on Brandon Webb

There were a lot of teams scrambling for starting pitching at the beginning of the off season. Heck, there are a lot of teams still in need of rotation help. It's not like there weren't arms out there. But there was a lot of risk involved. And there is an old saying that goes, "No risk, no reward." The phrase is used in golf with holes being considered good "risk-reward" holes. In other words, taking a risk can reap big rewards. It is acknowledged that such a risk could also mean sending a golf ball out of bounds. But when it works out, boy is it sweet.

Somebody who took a risk this off season is going to be smiling broadly. Certainly, one of the owners of the Chris Capuano, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis and John Maine are going to be pretty pleased with themselves. What got the Fan to thinking about this was this piece on ESPN.com. In the piece, Ron Washington, manager of the Rangers is quoted as saying, "Wow!" to the way Brandon Webb was throwing. The Rangers understood the risk and other teams are going to look pretty silly if Webb has a very good season.

Earlier reports said that Capuano was throwing really well for the Mets in early camp. Capuano's velocity notched up a bit at the end of last year and he would have been a risk worth taking. Only the Mets saw the possible reward. Jeff Francis and Chris Young were out there but they had injury rap sheets that were too long. But you know, one of those guys is going to have a good year. You can book it.

Has such a risk blown up in people's faces before? Sure. Just ask the Mariners about Bedard. But seasons can be won or lost with just a few wins swung from the loss column. A team that wins 80 games could have won 85 or 86 with just the right risk-reward signing. A lot of divisions are going to swing pretty close to 86 wins. The NL West, Central and the AL Central division winner may have such a win total. In the AL East, where three teams are beating their brains in for the 92 to 95 wins it will take to win that division, could have had a three game swing if the right risk had been taken.

And yes, I am talking to you, Yankees. Any of those pitchers mentioned in this post so far were better risk-reward guys than Garcia, Colon and Mitre. So why wouldn't you pull the trigger? The Fan is impressed by the Texas Rangers. They are shooting from the hip and taking those risks. And you know what? Brandon Webb, if he can get healthy enough to pitch this season, will be better than any of the Garcias, Colons or Mitres you want to put out there.

Of course, the Yankees don't appear to be risk takers any more. Such high stakes have ground them into inertia. If the Yankees were adept at risks, one of those guys would have been signed. If the Yankees were adept at the calculated risky deal, one of the trio of stud minor league pitchers in their present camp would go north with them. But they won't.

Sometimes it's much easier to turn a small craft than a Titanic. But a wise man once told the Fan that faith was like the rudder of a ship, it's useless and doesn't work unless you are moving forward. The same can be said about taking a good risk that can lead to a high reward.

Wishing you a big season, Misters Webb, Capuano, Francis, Young and Maine.

The Most Intriguing Starters Left on the Board

There are 27 free agent starting pitchers left on the market. Andy Pettitte is one of them but we won't include him. He will either pitch for the Yankees or retire. We also won't include Carl Pavano who should sign any day now with the Twins (now that he's seen he won't get three years anywhere). Brian Bannister has signed to play in Japan. Ben Sheets will miss the season with injury. That leaves 23 pitchers still on the market. Most of them aren't worth considering besides a minor league deal. But there are still a couple of intriguing picks out there. Here's the Fan's list:

Chris Young - Young is 31 and coming off of two injury plagued seasons. But he showed promise last year when he got into some games down the stretch for the Padres. The first thing you think about with Young is his health. The second is wondering if his past success was because he pitched in San Diego. His health will have to be checked carefully, but as for as his home/road splits over his career, they are not bad at all. His K/BB ratio improved dramatically at home, but his OPS against on the road and home are remarkably similar. His career splits are also very similar against right-handed batters and those that bat from the left side (Young is right-handed). Young would be a worthwhile flyer with lots of upside. You probably wouldn't want him if you played in a smaller ballpark.

Jeff Francis - The Fan has been on this bandwagon for a while. Francis throws from the left side and is only 29 years old. He's a big guy at 6'5" and is very imposing on the mound. And he's had success in the past. This Fan doesn't think he was very healthy the past couple of years and Coors probably beat him down. He'd be a really nice fit in New York, especially for the Mets, but the Yankees could use him as a lefty arm against the Red Sox. Why has Francis been out there for this long?

John Maine - The one thing Maine's on field spat with his manager showed was that the guy had heart. And when he is healthy, he can pitch. The question is his health. If his medicals show any hope, he would be high on the Fan's list of long shots.

Brad Penny - Penny has been jettisoned from two of the best organizations in baseball (the Red Sox and Dodgers). Both questioned his heart and his desire to be as good as he can be. That may be fair and it may not. Joe Torre does have a doghouse and it's hard to get out of it. Larry Bowa is even worse. But the Fan believes the Cardinals and Dave Duncan gave Penny some tools he can use to rebuild a good career. He's only in his low thirties and he can still get people out. As only the Cardinals can do, they got him to lower his walk total and if he can repeat that for another team, he's very much worth a shot.

Forget the (John) Maine

Forgive this Fan for being a bit dense on the latest course of Mets decision making. From what Terry Collins is saying, they are in deep talks with 31 year old, broken pitcher, Chris Young, formerly of the Padres, whose best season included a 128 ERA+ but has a 105 career ERA+ and yet have non-tendered their own broken 29 year old pitcher, John Maine, whose best season was a 122 ERA+ and has a career ERA+ of 98. The most games Young has ever won was 12. The most games Maine has won is 15. Granted, that's basically it for both pitchers as far as glory goes.

But it goes beyond that. Maine was non-tendered because it was feared that he would possibly make $4 million in arbitration. Young made nearly $7 million last year and will not be signed for much less than what Maine would have made.

Maine's most famous recent memory was getting mad at Jerry Manuel for taking him out of a game when he was obviously hurt. Maine didn't want to leave the game. Many viewed Maine as a trouble maker from that incident. But to this Fan's perspective, that made Maine look like a fighter and a competitor. Yeah, such antics would have gotten Maine hurt worse because he didn't know how to listen to his doctors and take care of himself. But at least he had fire in his belly. That made an impact on this observer.

But this is what this Fan doesn't understand. Everybody in the world is looking for pitching. At least 25 of the 30 teams will be searching around for pitching when their big Winter Meetings commence on Sunday. Why give up on a guy like Maine over $4 million? That's chump change in the MLB. Maine was once an effective pitcher. The Mets have to feel strongly that those days are behind Maine.

That is what this all looks like. The Mets didn't believe Maine can ever be an effective pitcher again. Yet they do believe Chris Young can be. Good luck with that. Broken pitchers are tough to put a lot of faith in. But in this day and age when everyone is looking for pitching, it would have seemed worth the Mets while to hold on to Maine at least one more year to see if there is anything left there. When he was healthy, he was a pretty darned good pitcher.

But then again, maybe this writer just likes his last name and feels defensive that nobody wants it...whoops...him.

When Does a Hero Become a Hindrance?

No, this post isn't about Derek Jeter. There is this axiom in sports that to play with injuries is heroic. What a man! What guts! You'd have to tear the uniform off of that guy! Yeah, we've heard it all a million times. But there are two things to consider about such heroism. First, is the player going to do further damage to himself and thus threaten his long-term existence? The second is: When does an injured starter (pitcher or fielder) hurt the team more than that player helps the team?

Let's deal with the first question since it is more personal but less interesting. That's cold, eh? How many times do we see a pitcher start to struggle, see his strikeout rate plummet and then after four or five games of said troubles, find out that the pitcher was hiding an injury or trying to work through one? It happens a lot. How long did Johan Santana pitch with an injury last year and this year? How much worse could that have made his injuries? Some players feel they have to live up to their salaries (which is admirable). Some feel the peer pressure to keep going out there. Some just don't like admitting that they can't will their bodies to overcome what hurts.

Nick Johnson signed with the Yankees in the preseason and was penciled in as the team's DH. His signing set in motion the Johnny Damon power play that booted him to Detroit. Johnson went nearly zero for April before finally admitting that he was a wreck physically. He had such a tendency for injury over his career that he did not want to admit he had another one. How much more serious could he have made his injuries?

The hero thing with injuries is much more dangerous with pitchers than any other player. The shoulder can take only so much fraying and a bad knee can alter a pitching motion and kill an arm. Teams should have some sort of rule where if a pitcher pitches two or three straight starts with uncharacteristic results, that pitcher should get a physical and be checked out. The pitcher, nine times out of ten, is not going to tell anyone that he hurts. It seems Maine with the Mets did just that and nearly ruined himself.

The second part of the equation comes down to how much an injured player hurts his team by playing. Nick Johnson really hurt the Yankees early in the year because he couldn't do anything at the plate and yet kept silent. Maine cost the Mets with a half dozen terrible starts before he was mercifully put on the DL.

In recent weeks, we've heard of Albert Pujols getting a shot and Cliff Lee and Nick Swisher getting a shot (and there were others). Does that scare anyone else besides the Fan? Yeah, let's give a guy a shot so he doesn't feel how bad he really should feel because his body is basically broken. That doesn't make sense.

The Fan has to admit that this post was completely inspired by Placido Polanco of the Phillies. About a week or two ago, it was revealed that Polanco's left shoulder (not throwing shoulder) was basically spaghetti and that he needs an operation. But Polanco is playing with the thing. That's probably not the right call for his long-term health. It's also a potential hindrance to the Phillies and their post season hopes. The Phillies are going to win the NL East. It's quite possible that they don't lose another game. But still, Polanco is real close (if not over the line) to being much more of a hindrance than a help.

Polanco is hitting just under .240 for the month of September. He's still getting his fair share of walks, but his OPS is .663 this month and it was .644 last month. When do you decide that what he is able to do with a spaghetti shoulder just isn't good enough to carry his line up position? Albert Pujols is hitting .250 this month. If you are the Cardinals, do you shut him down when the magic number gets to zero?

The Fan doesn't have any real answers here. Let's just say that the questions are being put out there. Each situation is different. Joe Girardi seems to have a real good finger on the pulse of his team's health. He's a big picture kind of manager. More managers have to be that way. There aren't a lot of them out there. Girardi's only blind spot might be Jeter. The Fan suspects that Jeter gets dinged up pretty good some times and will not sit. See, this post got back around to Jeter some how after all.

Maine Pulled After One Batter

In a strange story for the Mets, John Maine was pulled after one batter in the Mets's game against the Nationals. Maine was clearly not pleased at being pulled after coach, Warthen, didn't like what he saw from Maine in warm ups. Maine then aired out his displeasure in a post game interview (you can see that all here). The Fan isn't sure how to feel about all of this.

First, there is consideration for Maine's health. Obviously, the Mets' dugout leadership felt that he was hurting and was not going to be able to deliver for the game. But if that's so, why let him start the game? If he looked that terrible in warm ups, why not pull him before the start? Instead, they let him go to the mound and walk one guy (the ball four pitch was a strike by the way) and then face the indignity of being pulled from the game.

The second thing the Fan felt by watching the video was the body language of manager, Jerry Manuel. Watch the video for yourself. His body language practically screamed that he has no respect for John Maine. He didn't go to the pitcher and pat him on the back and tell him he was pulling him for his own protection. Instead, he waved his arm to the bullpen and then turned his back on Maine and walked back to the dugout, first making some kind of arm motion like, "get him out of there."

Warthen is then quoted as saying that Maine is, "a habitual liar in a lot of ways as far as his own health." A habitual liar? Whoa. Those are strong words. Maybe Maine is not forthcoming about his health. Most ball players are not, especially pitchers. Earlier in the year, Nick Johnson of the Yankees withheld from the team that he was hurting because he knew his reputation. The Fan gets all that. But this particular event seemed poorly handled. To let Maine start the game when there was already concern and then pull him after one batter was disrespectful. Manuel's body language was even more disrespectful.

The Mets are correct to protect one of their assets and making sure a player does not harm himself is a refreshing change from the past when no such care was ever evident. But, golly, you've got to handle it better than this was handled.

Why It's Hard to Like National League Baseball

Watched two games today and both are reminders of why National League baseball is harder to like than American League baseball. The games in question were the Cubs/Brewers game and the Mets/Marlins. Before we get to the action, let the Fan say ahead of time that the game's purists might be a bit put off by this post. But keep an open mind.

Let's start with the Mets and Marlins. First, the Marlins look very tough right now. They play with a lot of enthusiasm, swing with aggression and seem to enjoy each other as teammates. They have a solid young core of players and if their pitching holds up the way they have started, they are going to be interesting to watch.

Okay. The game was still close. John Maine of the Mets had only given up two hits in five innings. Unfortunately, those two hits were monster homers by Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. He had thrown 83 pitches through those five innings. On the other side, Anibal Sanchez kept the Mets scoreless through five innings but had a high pitch count (98) due to pitching deep into the count while striking out five and walking three. It was obvious that Sanchez wouldn't make it deep into the game.

In fact, Sanchez was replaced by Dan Meyer to start the top of the sixth. Meyer promptly gave up a homer to Carlos Beltran and then a single to Church. Schneider then sacrificed but Luis Castillo flied out making it two outs. Maine was due up next and according to the logic of current National League baseball, Sheffield was called upon to pinch hit. Sheffield walked but Reyes then flew out to end the inning.

And so Maine was out after only five innings. Sean Green was called in to pitch the sixth for the Mets and gave up a run but also struck out the side. The Mets scored two runs to tie the score in the top of the seventh. But the Mets were then forced (having used Green already) to bring in inexperienced Bobby Parnell, who has thrown a total of six innings in his big league career. Parnell gave up the go ahead run.

Though the Mets did tie the game up against the Marlins' closer, Matt Lindstrom--a real weakness for the Marlins by the way--in the top of the ninth. The feisty Marlins then won the game in the bottom of the ninth.

Now the point of all this is that in National League baseball's silent bylaws, the Mets had to pinch hit for John Maine. If this was American League baseball, Maine would have pitched at least another inning which would have set them up perfectly to bring Green in the seventh, Putz in the eighth and their closer in the ninth. Exposing their bullpen another inning led to a weaker pitcher being relied upon with the expected bad results.

Now many of you might be wagging your finger at the Fan stating that this is purist baseball and much better than that DH business. Well, if you say so. But the Fan has been around long enough to know that in purist baseball, the Drysdales, Koufaxes, Gibsons, and other National League pitchers of the past wouldn't have come out after five innings and 83 pitches. That is totally a modern phenomenon just as the DH is in the American League. In the "good old days," you would only pinch hit for the pitcher if he was getting roughed up or very late in the game.

Okay, let's go to the Cubs game against the Brewers. This is a tale of how a 4-3 game can take three hours and twelve minutes. Harden started for the Cubbies and Looper for the Brewers. Harden was fantastic and struck out ten batters in six innings, but was dinged for two runs, one of them earned. Looper only gave up one run in his five innings but had trouble with his control.
And so Seth McClung came in the top of the sixth and that's when the fun started.

First, McClung couldn't McCling to the lead and gave up a two run homer to back-up catcher Koyie Hill, who to this point in his career had a .292 slugging percentage in 240 big league at bats. Harden dispatched of the Brewers quickly in the bottom half of the sixth and then McClung got through the top of the seventh despite two more base runners.

Piniella then brings Heilman in to start the bottom of the seventh and he promptly walks Bill Hall, which is historically pretty hard to do. Jason Kendall successfully sacrifices Hall to second and out comes Piniella to summon Neal Cotts to LOOGY Craig Counsell, who is batting for McClung. Cotts promptly plunks Counsell who trots to first base.

So for those keeping score, we've had 16 warm up pitches and only 11 real pitches and a runner is on first and second and out pops Piniella again, because, Cotts is only a LOOGY. In comes Marmol who throws 8 more warm up pitches (we're up to 24 for the inning and two commercial breaks). Marmol, once presumably warm, got lucky when Weeks lined hard to second. He then walked Corey Hart to load the bases. Fortunately for the Cubs, Braun flew out to right to end the inning. No runs, three base runners, 24 warm up pitches and 27 real pitches.

Ted Coffey comes in for the Brewers in the top of the eighth and promptly gives up a double to Fontenot. TheRiot grounds out and then Coffey plunks the immortal Koyie Hill who trots to first. Aaron Miles pinch hits for Marmol (since this IS the National League) and promptly hits into a double play to end the inning.

Sean Marshall, not a LOOGY by definition and normally a starting pitcher, comes in for the Cubbies to face the lefty, Fielder. But he walks him. Up pops Piniella from the dugout using his National League exercise program and replaces Marshall with Vizcaino. So now we have sixteen warm up pitches and only five real pitches have been thrown.

Vizcaino gets lucky and J. J. Hardy's line shot is caught in deep left field. He then induces Cameron to dribble the ball back to him and Cameron is thrown out at first, Fielder moving to second. Piniella again pops out of the dugout and replaces Vizcaino with Kevin Gregg, the Cubs' closer. So we are again up to 24 warm up pitches, two commercial breaks and only 13 real pitches have been thrown. Oy. Gregg finishes out the inning without incident.

The Brewers go down easily in the bottom of the eighth and Gregg comes out for the ninth and promptly (the Fan is using that word far too often...must be this week's catchy word) blows the save.

The bottom line here is Piniella's fiddling with all those pitchers meant that Gregg was asked to have more than a three out save, not a good idea with this generation of closers (See? Not so purist). Plus, the fans had to endure 48 warm up pitches, four commercial breaks to account for 47 real pitches and a whole bunch of idle time. Wasn't that fun?