MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: April 17, 2013

Yesterday featured some brilliant picks. The Twins over the Angels? I had it. The Padres over the Dodgers? Yep. Got that one. Unfortunately, there were some really stupid picks that canceled out the smart ones. Picks like the Indians over the Red Sox. Did I really pick Ubaldo Jimenez. Oh Ubaldo. Ubaldo. What the heck was I thinking? And I picked the Cubs over the Rangers!?

There were other surprises. The double-header between the Rockies and Mets was going perfectly until the Mets' bullpen blew the second game late. The magic bubble of Barry Zito burst on me and he was hammered.

And weather continued to play havoc in baseball. The Phillies and Reds played nine scoreless innings and then decided to call it a night. And the rains came to the Pirates - Cardinals game and wiped that out after the second inning. Baseball has seen five straight nights with at least one postponement.

So all in all, the picks ended up in the positive. But not by much. The suspended game will count on yesterday if it is finished up today. It looks like from MLB.com's schedule, that they will finish up the game today at some point.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Braves over the Royals: There is no stopping this Braves team right now. They are pitching, hitting and playing defense. And of course, once they get the lead, that bullpen is amazing. Wade Davis pitches for the Royals and he has been good. But the Braves will hit at least a couple of homers to take the game behind Mike Minor.
• The Athletics over the Astros: While it is always an adventure to pick Bartolo Colon to win a game, the A's have to be the pick here. Bud Norris has won two of the Astros' games, but again, the pick has to go to the A's.
• The Phillies over the Reds: I am simply not buying Mike Leake here. The Phillies' offense is weak, but Leake has not been able to stop anyone. John Lannon has a chance to stop the Reds, however.
• The Yankees over the Diamondbacks: C.C. Sabathia has won his last two starts in impressive fashion and should be able to tame the Diamondbacks in his home yard. Wade Miley, however, is also a lefty and has been really impressive. The Yankees' lineup against lefties has been weak. This may up a bullpen game, and if so, advantage: Yankees.
• The Indians over the Red Sox: No, I did not learn my lesson, so what of it? Justin Masterson is 3-0 with an ERA under one. I wrote this week that I do not think that is a fluke. Obviously, his ERA will regress, but he is facing Alfredo Aceves. Aceves was not bad in his last start, but he is a tantrum waiting to happen.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: A.J. Burnett has pitched well for the Pirates but is still 0-2. That is because of the Pirates' offense which faces the seemingly incredible Shelby Miller. Miller has been lights out thus far. The only scary part in this game is the Cardinals' bullpen.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Chris Tillman at least gives the Rays' offense a chance to score two or three runs. If he does, then Matt Moore should hold down the Orioles enough for the guy with the crooked cap to end the game with a save.
• The Blue Jays over the White Sox: J.A. Happ has been very good for the Blue Jays. Who would have guessed that? He is 2-0 so far. My only worry is that Konerko might get to him. Otherwise, he should be better than Jose Quintana.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: The Marlins pulled two surprises yesterday. First, they won. Second, they scored a lot of runs. Neither will happen two days in a row. Ross Detwiler over Ricky Nolasco.
• The Rangers over the Cubs: Carlos Villanueva has been very stingy for the Cubs and has an ERA under one. But he has nothing to show for it. Justin Grimm makes his second major league start. The first one was only so-so. So this pick looks wrong. But it will be right.
• The Angels over the Twins: The Angels have looked awful. Just awful. But should win today because Vance Worley has looked abominable thus far. He used to be much better than this, so I do not really get what is going on with him. While Tommy Hanson does not thrill me either, he should be better than Worley.
• The Brewers over the Giants: Maybe the Brewers are ready to go on a hot streak. Kyle Lohse has pitched well but has not been fortunate. Ryan Vogelsong has been inconsistent. The Brewers steal a win here after beating the Giants last night.
• The Rockies over the Mets: I hate picking games that originate in Coors Field. Anything can happen there. Jeremy Hefner is not having a fun time thus far and goes against a tough offense in a tough place for pitchers. Jon Garland is at least crafty enough to survive, if by his fingernails.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: If there is one thing we have learned over the years is that just because Felix Hernandez is pitching, it does not mean the Mariners will win the game. Max Scherzer certainly has the ability to shadow Hernandez until the Tigers can scratch out a few runs.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Dodgers over the Padres: Clayton Kershaw lose two games in a row? As if. He should mow through the Padres without a problem and the Dodgers will get to Tyson Ross. This should be a no-brainer. But saying so has always haunted me.

Yesterday: 8-6  and pending on the completion of the suspended game

Week: 20-16

Month: 124-78

Games of the Day: 12-4

Jon Garland's Deal Wise for Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers do not have a lot of money to throw around. So what resources they do have need to be spent wisely. Signing Jon Garland for a year at $5 million is a very wise move. Garland has been as reliable as they come and depending on whose WAR you look at these days, Garland has consistently been worth between $8.5 million and $12 million every year since 2004. He gives you 200 innings every year and though he is far from spectacular, he will be worth his paycheck.

Pitching in good pitching parks is in Jon Garland's best interest. After departing the American League, where he was starting to get knocked around a bit, Garland had a decent season for the Padres last season and was a cog in the rotation that almost took them to the division title. He pitched the season before that for the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers. For that low an asking price, you have to wonder why the Padres didn't try harder to sign him. Maybe they did and we don't know it. But at that kind of money, it seems that Garland could have been had. It's also a possibility that Garland, who has pitched in Los Angeles before simply likes it there and wanted to return.

Garland has a 131-114 record in eleven big league seasons. He is 31 years old and has a career ERA of 4.32 ERA. His career ERA+ is 104 but he's only had two seasons in the last nine that were under the league average of 100. He is what he is: A solid pitcher that is just a tick above league average who will give you 33 starts a year. That's a valuable commodity.

Some teams build to get through the long season to get to the playoffs. The thinking is that if a team can just make it to the playoffs, then anything can happen. The Twins come to mind as do the Dodgers. The other method is to build a team that can dominate the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may during the seasons. The Yankees and the Phillies are the latter kind of team. They have collected "shut down" types of pitchers that can dominate a post season series. The Dodgers aren't building that kind of staff.

What they are doing is compiling a rotation that gives the team solid outings every day. With Ted Lilly and Kuroda already signed and now Garland, they have three similar pitchers that are reliable, keep the team in the game and give the Dodgers a chance to win. Kershaw is the only power arm of the kind that can dominate a post series game.

With Garland, the rotation seems to be set. You have Kershaw at Number One, then Lilly, Kuroda, Garland and then Billingsley. Making Billingsley the fifth starter takes the pressure off of him and since he has spent some time as a Number 2 or Number 3, the Dodgers are in good shape one through five. Will the rotation scare anyone? Probably not (with the exception of Kershaw). But will it be solid in a pitcher's park? Certainly.

It's encouraging for the Dodgers that in these uncertain times, they have made such a smart and wise signing with a good bottom line, lots of upside and only one year of risk. Well done.

Dodgers and Rockies Try to Gear Up - White Sox Give Up

Three big deals occurred last night that beat the deadline for post season rosters. The Dodgers got Jim Thome from the White Sox for cash and a minor league player to essentially pinch hit since he can't play first base. The Dodgers also acquired Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks to bolster their rotation (too bad for knuckleballer, Haeger) for a player to be named later. And the White Sox also sent Contreras to the Rockies.

American League pitchers have a history of doing well after being traded to the National League. So perhaps Contreras can contribute for the Rockies after an abysmal season for the White Sox. Perhaps just getting away from his manager will take some of the pressure off of him.

Thome can't play in the field, so he becomes a pretty expensive pinch hitter for the rest of the season and post season. He may hit a homer or three to win a game or two for his new team. The biggest benefit he'll provide is a boost to Manny Ramirez and his morale. The two played together in Cleveland and really like each other.

Garland should help the Dodgers a lot. He is coming off a great start from this past week and appears to be peaking as the season goes along. He should be worth a win or two. Plus, he is familiar to pitching in the American League and that should help the Dodgers in the post season if they get to the World Series.

The moves prove the Rockies and the Dodgers are serious and ready to spend a little to get the job done. The moves also indicate that the White Sox have thrown in the towel and figure they have no hope to compete the rest of the way out.