Manny helped the Dodgers last year. Teixeira helped the Angels. And now Holliday is going to help the Cardinals. We all knew it was coming. Speculation concerning Holliday and Halladay have been swirling for weeks. Certainly his teammates weren't surprised. The Cardinals, who though imperfect, were already on track to win the division. But recent surges by the Astros and more life in the Cubs (and Milwaukee isn't out of it) seemed to give more impetus to getting a bat to hit behind and protect Albert Pujols. Holliday should fill that spot perfectly.
And the Cardinals are getting Holliday at just the right time. Holliday really struggled early in the year. It seems that he spent some time in the off season working with Mark McGwire, who got Holliday to do away with his leg kick with his front leg as he was driving into the ball. McGwire seems like a great guy and players are drawn to him, but once Holliday went back to the leg kick, his whole season went into a leg kick.
The first three months of the season, Holliday's Slugging Percentage showed: .360, .456 and .440. His Slugging Percentage has skyrocketed in July to .574. And something else is impressive about Holliday. Most guys who get traded seem to take a couple to three days to get to their new team. Holliday hopped on a plane immediately and was in the Cardinals' lineup tonight. How did he do? He went four for five with a double, a run scored and an RBI. Not a bad start. He also stole a base.
The Cardinals' other new player, Julio Lugo, abandoned by the Red Sox and needing a new home to possibly ressurrect his career, went two for five with a homer, two runs scored and an RBI. The Cardinals seem to have enough pitching (Pineiro was great again tonight), but their offense was really struggling. Eight runs tonight against a pitcher who was 7-0, seems (sure, it's only one game) to show that they have fixed that problem.
Give the Cardinals credit. They made the right moves and rented Holliday for a few months to get them where they need to go. Oakland, on the other hand, though they are happy for their now ex-teammate, have to be bumming. And it showed in their game against the Yankees.
Against the Yankees, the A's looked flat and listless. They only managed three hits against Joba and allowed two runs to score on a throwing error. Johnny Damon drove in two runs with ground outs. And this was a team, who with Holliday, that overcame a ten run deficit earlier in the week against the Twins and just pummeled that team from Minnesota.
But that's the way it goes. When you're in last place, you're going to lose your spare parts, especially with Billy Beane who will always trade what he has for young prospects. It's the way of the world. The A's have to live through the rest of the year with a patchwork offense with hopes for the future. The Cardinals are delighted to have Holliday (and Lugo) and seem poised to be the best team in their division.
Showing posts with label Julio Lugo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Julio Lugo. Show all posts
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Pondering the Red Sox Trades
Upon first hearing about the two trades the Red Sox made today, the first gut reaction was: "What the heck did they do that for?" But after reflecting a bit, the two trades don't look too bad in second thoughts. First of all, any trade that frees Julio Lugo from his Red Sox experience is a good thing for him and for the team. Secondly, while LaRoche isn't the best player in the world, he's had some pretty above average seasons until recently. Let's explore this a little bit further.
The first reaction to the LaRoche trade was negativity about moving Youkilis off of first base to third. The Fan has commented several times in the FanDome and on Josh Borenstein's blog that Youkilis is one of the best first basemen in baseball and it's stupid to move him. But the Fan isn't always right. A review of the statistics show that this year's batting splits between first and third are a statistical anomaly. Over his career, Youkilis has better offensive numbers when playing third than when playing first. Though his career at bats at first far outweigh what he's hit at third. Plus, according to the defensive stats, Youkilis is an even better third baseman than he is a first baseman. So, on those occasions when LaRoche plays first and Youkilis moves to third, the Fan has been incorrect and the Red Sox don't lose anything as LaRoche is pretty good around first too.
The second reaction was the opinion that LaRoche wasn't a very good hitter. He's certainly down this year with a showing of .247/.329/.441, but if his career is any indication, he's more like a .275/.350/.485 kind of guy, which is a heck of a lot better than Jeff Francoeur. He had his best year in 2006 for Bobby Cox and was traded the following year to Pittsburgh. Perhaps three years in a losing situation with a surrounding lineup that doesn't leave much protection has taken its toll. At least with the Red Sox, he'll be in an upbeat environment with solid major league hitters around him. Don't be surprised if he does well. The only sad part is seeing him split up from his brother.
Thank goodness for Julio Lugo's sake. Not since Renteria has a shortstop felt such hatred from Red Sox Nation and seemingly crumbled as a player because of it. In a recent interview, he was very up front and said he tried his best and it just didn't work out. At least now, he is free to rediscover his career and the Red Sox are free from the burden. And as much as you all know how much the Fan thinks of Tony LaRussa, he and his staff seem to find a way to rebuild castoffs and fix them somehow. The Cardinals had a real mess at shortstop with Khalil Greene out with emotional problems and Tyler Greene not showing much at the plate. Lugo at least will hit over there in St. Louis and perhaps will regain something of himself again.
It was clear that the Cardinals' executives had felt the end had come for Chris Duncan. Duncan showed huge holes in his swing and was struggling mightily at the plate. He seems pretty much the same as his brother who plays in the Yankee organization. Both are big guys that can get tied up and lack discipline at times. It's hard to see him having any impact with the Red Sox in the future. It appears that this was a case of both teams unloading parts that weren't working for them.
The bottom line for the Red Sox is that they added a potentially above league average bat, subtracted a negative and aren't hurt when Youkilis has to play the occasional third base. Since it appears that the AL East has three teams that are dead even personnel-wise, a slight positive and a good subtraction can't hurt and might even help.
The first reaction to the LaRoche trade was negativity about moving Youkilis off of first base to third. The Fan has commented several times in the FanDome and on Josh Borenstein's blog that Youkilis is one of the best first basemen in baseball and it's stupid to move him. But the Fan isn't always right. A review of the statistics show that this year's batting splits between first and third are a statistical anomaly. Over his career, Youkilis has better offensive numbers when playing third than when playing first. Though his career at bats at first far outweigh what he's hit at third. Plus, according to the defensive stats, Youkilis is an even better third baseman than he is a first baseman. So, on those occasions when LaRoche plays first and Youkilis moves to third, the Fan has been incorrect and the Red Sox don't lose anything as LaRoche is pretty good around first too.
The second reaction was the opinion that LaRoche wasn't a very good hitter. He's certainly down this year with a showing of .247/.329/.441, but if his career is any indication, he's more like a .275/.350/.485 kind of guy, which is a heck of a lot better than Jeff Francoeur. He had his best year in 2006 for Bobby Cox and was traded the following year to Pittsburgh. Perhaps three years in a losing situation with a surrounding lineup that doesn't leave much protection has taken its toll. At least with the Red Sox, he'll be in an upbeat environment with solid major league hitters around him. Don't be surprised if he does well. The only sad part is seeing him split up from his brother.
Thank goodness for Julio Lugo's sake. Not since Renteria has a shortstop felt such hatred from Red Sox Nation and seemingly crumbled as a player because of it. In a recent interview, he was very up front and said he tried his best and it just didn't work out. At least now, he is free to rediscover his career and the Red Sox are free from the burden. And as much as you all know how much the Fan thinks of Tony LaRussa, he and his staff seem to find a way to rebuild castoffs and fix them somehow. The Cardinals had a real mess at shortstop with Khalil Greene out with emotional problems and Tyler Greene not showing much at the plate. Lugo at least will hit over there in St. Louis and perhaps will regain something of himself again.
It was clear that the Cardinals' executives had felt the end had come for Chris Duncan. Duncan showed huge holes in his swing and was struggling mightily at the plate. He seems pretty much the same as his brother who plays in the Yankee organization. Both are big guys that can get tied up and lack discipline at times. It's hard to see him having any impact with the Red Sox in the future. It appears that this was a case of both teams unloading parts that weren't working for them.
The bottom line for the Red Sox is that they added a potentially above league average bat, subtracted a negative and aren't hurt when Youkilis has to play the occasional third base. Since it appears that the AL East has three teams that are dead even personnel-wise, a slight positive and a good subtraction can't hurt and might even help.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Curious Case of Julio Lugo
It seems hard to account for the Boston Red Sox and their love affair with Julio Lugo. Coming off the disabled list last night, he was immediately plugged back into the lineup and though he contributed with the bat, made an error in his first game back. That now gives the shortstop 17 errors in his last 82 games.
Granted, Nick Green's lifetime stats don't give much indication that he's a better player. But he was having a pretty good season and the Sox had a ten game winning streak with him in there. Why mess with that? It's also granted that Nick Green isn't a permanent solution. But Lugo is a worse solution at this point in his career.
Now 33 years old, Lugo has not had an impressive last three years in the field. His fielding percentage compared to league average looks like this the last three years: 2006 - .954/.971, 2007 - .968/.970, 2008 - .945/.972. But we all now know that fielding percentage does not tell the full story. Though Lugo's career Range Factor is above league average, he has not come close to the league average for the past two years. Here is a breakdown: 2007 - 4.21/4.27, 2007 - 3.70/4.39. That's an alarming decline.
In one more fielding statistic, there is a stat called Total Fielding Runs Above Average. In this measure, zero (0) is neutral. Lugo's measure for the last three years: -7.9, -0.4 and -7.0. By the way, all three of the fielding measures the Fan has indicated Lugo rated below Derek Jeter (who has become the supposed standard for the worst fielding shortstop in the majors) last year.
The Red Sox value defense and it is to be sure that their top line statistical analysts must be aware of these numbers. At this point, Green is performing better. But if anyone was available who could play the position better, the Red Sox should make a move.
Granted, Nick Green's lifetime stats don't give much indication that he's a better player. But he was having a pretty good season and the Sox had a ten game winning streak with him in there. Why mess with that? It's also granted that Nick Green isn't a permanent solution. But Lugo is a worse solution at this point in his career.
Now 33 years old, Lugo has not had an impressive last three years in the field. His fielding percentage compared to league average looks like this the last three years: 2006 - .954/.971, 2007 - .968/.970, 2008 - .945/.972. But we all now know that fielding percentage does not tell the full story. Though Lugo's career Range Factor is above league average, he has not come close to the league average for the past two years. Here is a breakdown: 2007 - 4.21/4.27, 2007 - 3.70/4.39. That's an alarming decline.
In one more fielding statistic, there is a stat called Total Fielding Runs Above Average. In this measure, zero (0) is neutral. Lugo's measure for the last three years: -7.9, -0.4 and -7.0. By the way, all three of the fielding measures the Fan has indicated Lugo rated below Derek Jeter (who has become the supposed standard for the worst fielding shortstop in the majors) last year.
The Red Sox value defense and it is to be sure that their top line statistical analysts must be aware of these numbers. At this point, Green is performing better. But if anyone was available who could play the position better, the Red Sox should make a move.
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