As most baseball fans know, Miguel Cabrera was having a monster season when it was cut short on September 27. Most baseball fans also know that his name has fallen out of favor when it comes to MVP voting because, first, he plays first base and is below average at doing so and secondly, his Tigers fell out of contention a month an a half ago. Heck, even this writer didn't pick him with his BBA vote. But this last week has given at least this writer a bit of a pause.
When Cabrera got hurt, the Tigers were on a roll. They had won eight of their last ten. Cabrera was right in the middle of all that with four homers and a lot of ribbies. The Tigers were climbing back to respectability. They had beaten the Twins, the Royals and the White Sox quite handily. Since Cabrera got hurt, the Tigers have lost five straight including two double-headers to the Indians and the Orioles. During their 8-2 run, the Tigers were scoring 6.7 runs a game. Since Cabrera got hurt, they've scored 2.6 runs a game. Granted, we're looking at a small sample size, but it seems like more that a coincidence.
Without Cabrera, Raburn bats clean up. Raburn is a good player, but his OPS is 200 points lower than Cabrera. Cabrera's replacement at first is Don Kelly, a journeyman minor league player with 300+ at bats in the majors with a .619 OPS. That's 400 points less than Cabrera. Yeah, Kelly hit a homer on Friday night, but shoot, the pitchers on the other team are going to pitch this line up completely different than they would if Cabrera was stuck right in the middle of it. Cabrera struck fear into pitchers like Jim Rice did (that was a joke by the way). Pitchers can be more careful to Damon and the rest because they don't have to worry about Cabrera.
Miguel Cabrera has been walked intentionally 32 times in 2010. Nobody else on the team has more than five. That's one of the reasons that Cabrera scored 111 runs this season. All those walks mean more men on base. More men on base means greater odds at scoring. It's all pretty simple.
The bottom line is that the Tigers suck without Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers are pretty good with Miguel Cabrera. That's a big difference and the essence of a most valuable player, is it not? Sometimes we make these educated assumptions such as first basemen aren't that important so their defense that figures into WAR are devalued compared to shortstops, third basemen and center fielders. In essence, the Fan gets that. But what it doesn't tell you is the value a player adds to the line up and what happens to that line up when the player isn't there. Cabrera isn't there and the Tigers have lost five straight. That's no coincidence.
Showing posts with label MLB MVP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB MVP. Show all posts
Saturday, October 02, 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Quite a Race Going for AL MVP
Josh Hamilton has been amazing for the Rangers. Every single day the box score reveals multiple hits, doubles, homers, ribbies. The guy is just on another planet right now. But he's still not a lock for MVP. Another candidate is Miguel Cabrera, who has been putting up his own monster season. Robinson Cano has faded a bit in recent weeks, but if he heats up again, he is currently fourth in the majors in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Youkilis is a long shot and Morneau needs to come back hot from his concussion.
Those who vote for MVP usually vote on traditional counting stats. Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera lead the way in those categories. Currently first and second in batting respectively, they combine a high batting average with plenty of power and both are driving in runs in prodigious regularity. Hamilton is batting .360. Cabrera is batting .347. Both are amazing averages. Cabrera has Hamilton by one homer and fourteen RBIs. He also leads Hamilton in runs scored by four. Those are the traditional stats that MVP voters look at when the season is over. But there are other factors. If any of the voters are interested in some of the newer statistics, we'll get to those in a minute.
Team factors will arise for voters. Cano will have problems because he plays with a bunch of superstars. Hamilton isn't the only force in the Rangers' lineup. Young, Kinsler and especially, Vlad Guerrero, are all having great years. So that may be a detraction from Hamilton. Cabrera is the only great hitter in his lineup. Yes, rookies Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch are having good seasons. But they can't carry the lineup like Cabrera can. The problem Cabrera might face is if the Tigers fall out of the race and become irrelevant. If that happens, Cabrera's chances will suffer.
Youkilis and Morneau will have arguments as well. Morneau led all of baseball in WAR for most of the season until the last couple of weeks. Youkilis has had a great season and has been a rock for the Red Sox in a season of injury and upheaval. If the Red Sox cannot catch up to the two top teams in the AL East, he'll have problems getting votes. Morneau has been slowed by his concussion, but he also has a problem with his own teammates. Joe Mauer is considered one of the best players in baseball at a premier position and Delmon Young is having an amazing breakout season. Young might be the Twins MVP right now. Both Morneau and Youkilis have one other problem that Cabrera shares. They are all first baseman and because that position is so loaded throughout baseball (the NL MVP will come down to two first basement too in Votto and Pujols), all those great players get jumbled up in jumbo.
Will anybody with an MVP vote care about the newfangled statistics? Probably a few. If so, Cabrera leads all of baseball with an OPS of 1.067. Morneau is second and Hamilton is third. Morneau leads all of baseball in wOBA at .447. But that category is really tight. Cabrera is at .444 and Hamilton is at .441. Youkilis is fourth at .421. There is another stat called Win Probability (WPA) and Cabrera is first in that category and Hamilton second. Nobody is remotely close to them in those categories.
Where it gets dicey is if you go by value which includes fielding. Cabrera still isn't considered an elite first baseman. He has improved, no doubt. But he is not great. Hamilton is having a fine season in left and Morneau is having a great season in the field. When you add fielding to batting, you get a statistic called WAR or Wins above Replacement which is used to figure a dollar value on a player's performance. Hamilton leads the majors with a WAR of 5.4 and a value of $21.6 million. Morneau is second at 5.2 and $20.6 million. Carl Crawford, a long shot for this award, is a surprising third at 5.1 and $20.5 million. But it's really not that surprising to those who look at these kinds of numbers. Crawford has hit for some power, steals bases and is the best left fielder in the game today.
So where are we? Well, we have to take into consideration what the old-fogey voters vote for. They want average. They want power. And they want their winner to be on a contending team. Hamilton fits. Crawford fits, but again, he suffers from playing with Longoria and Zobrist who will distract some votes. Cabrera will lose out because the Tigers are fading and because he is a first baseman. That leaves us with Josh Hamilton, who would win if the vote was held tomorrow. And for once, the voters would not be wrong.
Those who vote for MVP usually vote on traditional counting stats. Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera lead the way in those categories. Currently first and second in batting respectively, they combine a high batting average with plenty of power and both are driving in runs in prodigious regularity. Hamilton is batting .360. Cabrera is batting .347. Both are amazing averages. Cabrera has Hamilton by one homer and fourteen RBIs. He also leads Hamilton in runs scored by four. Those are the traditional stats that MVP voters look at when the season is over. But there are other factors. If any of the voters are interested in some of the newer statistics, we'll get to those in a minute.
Team factors will arise for voters. Cano will have problems because he plays with a bunch of superstars. Hamilton isn't the only force in the Rangers' lineup. Young, Kinsler and especially, Vlad Guerrero, are all having great years. So that may be a detraction from Hamilton. Cabrera is the only great hitter in his lineup. Yes, rookies Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch are having good seasons. But they can't carry the lineup like Cabrera can. The problem Cabrera might face is if the Tigers fall out of the race and become irrelevant. If that happens, Cabrera's chances will suffer.
Youkilis and Morneau will have arguments as well. Morneau led all of baseball in WAR for most of the season until the last couple of weeks. Youkilis has had a great season and has been a rock for the Red Sox in a season of injury and upheaval. If the Red Sox cannot catch up to the two top teams in the AL East, he'll have problems getting votes. Morneau has been slowed by his concussion, but he also has a problem with his own teammates. Joe Mauer is considered one of the best players in baseball at a premier position and Delmon Young is having an amazing breakout season. Young might be the Twins MVP right now. Both Morneau and Youkilis have one other problem that Cabrera shares. They are all first baseman and because that position is so loaded throughout baseball (the NL MVP will come down to two first basement too in Votto and Pujols), all those great players get jumbled up in jumbo.
Will anybody with an MVP vote care about the newfangled statistics? Probably a few. If so, Cabrera leads all of baseball with an OPS of 1.067. Morneau is second and Hamilton is third. Morneau leads all of baseball in wOBA at .447. But that category is really tight. Cabrera is at .444 and Hamilton is at .441. Youkilis is fourth at .421. There is another stat called Win Probability (WPA) and Cabrera is first in that category and Hamilton second. Nobody is remotely close to them in those categories.
Where it gets dicey is if you go by value which includes fielding. Cabrera still isn't considered an elite first baseman. He has improved, no doubt. But he is not great. Hamilton is having a fine season in left and Morneau is having a great season in the field. When you add fielding to batting, you get a statistic called WAR or Wins above Replacement which is used to figure a dollar value on a player's performance. Hamilton leads the majors with a WAR of 5.4 and a value of $21.6 million. Morneau is second at 5.2 and $20.6 million. Carl Crawford, a long shot for this award, is a surprising third at 5.1 and $20.5 million. But it's really not that surprising to those who look at these kinds of numbers. Crawford has hit for some power, steals bases and is the best left fielder in the game today.
So where are we? Well, we have to take into consideration what the old-fogey voters vote for. They want average. They want power. And they want their winner to be on a contending team. Hamilton fits. Crawford fits, but again, he suffers from playing with Longoria and Zobrist who will distract some votes. Cabrera will lose out because the Tigers are fading and because he is a first baseman. That leaves us with Josh Hamilton, who would win if the vote was held tomorrow. And for once, the voters would not be wrong.
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