Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at projections is a fun way to pass the time. Whether you do this for fantasy baseball purposes or--if you are like me and do not play fantasy--just for the fun of it, There is a lot of stuff to sort through and ponder. Projection systems are difficult to wrap your head around because some project actual playing time and others assume everyone is going to get 550 plate appearances. The latter, I suppose, is helpful in case a player breaks out in Spring Training and ends up as a starter (which rarely happens). What I thought I would do on this Sunday afternoon was cull through the various projection systems and determine who the five least valuable players would be in 2014.

Such an exercise is harder than you think. First, I have an artificial number of projected plate appearances of 450. I want to consider starters and not part-time players. Secondly, I have to figure out which of these players will actually get the playing time he is projected to obtain. For example, one of the lowest rated was Brett Wallace. But he was just DFA'd by the Astros and doesn't figure to catch on with a full-time gig anywhere else. And lastly, most of the projection systems have to agree on the lack of value a player will have in 2014.

After making my list, a discussion on the merits of each will occur. Think of it as sort of an over/under type discussion. For disclosure sake, I used PECOTA, Steamer, Oliver and Fans projections. I used MLB Depth Charts to confirm possible playing time.

Okay, the list:

1. Garrett Jones - Average Projection of 0.23 WAR
2. Raul Ibanez - Average Projection of 0.3 WAR
3. Mitch Moreland - Average Projection of 0.55 WAR
4. Adeiny Hechavarria - Average Projection of 0.65 WAR
5. Ryan Ludwick - Average Projection of 0.78 WAR

Garrett Jones - Jones holds one of the most extreme L/R splits in the Majors with less than a .600 OPS against left-handed pitching and in the high .878 against right-handed pitchers. He is penciled in as the platoon partner with Jeff Baker at first base. That would be a good thing for Jones as he is capable of hitting more than twenty homers. If he can field first base at near league-average level, he could score 2.0 in WAR. If he plays full time or spends any time in the outfield, all bets are off.

Raul Ibanez - The projections are logical since Ibanez is 41 years old and should never wear a glove. But the Angels only need him as a DH and have plenty of outfielders. So unlike last year in Seattle, Ibanez should only be a DH. That said, will he get 400 plate appearances? He won't if he is platooned (and he should be). Based on offense alone, he could get 1.5 in WAR.

Mitch Moreland - Moreland has no home at first base with the Rangers' addition of Prince Fielder. MLB Depth Charts has him listed as the Rangers' DH. Plus, he has spent plenty of time in the outfield too. Moreland's career doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I think these projections are pretty money.

Adeiny Hechavarria - Not only is his name a bear to spell, but he was awful for the Marlins last season. And still, he is pegged as their starting shortstop again this year. I don't think he will ever hit and a sub-.300 on-base percentage could be his norm. He gets bonus WAR points for his "important position" on the field, but doesn't score all that well as a fielder. If he reaches 1.0 in WAR in 2014, it will be a surprise.

Ryan Ludwick - I kept hearing last year that the Reds will be okay once Ludwick comes back from injury. And it made me scratch my head. Yeah, he had a pretty good 2012, but that is the anomaly for him over the past five seasons. The Reds have him penciled in as the starting left-fielder. I think it is a pie-in-the-sky scenario for them. He is not great in the field, and 2012 aside, his bat has been missing since his days with the Cardinals. I think his projection is fair. His positional ranking hurts him, his fielding hurts him and I don't see him repeating 2012 for offensive production.

There you have it. The projections have spoken. But of course, nobody knows how any player's season will go until he actually plays the games.

Rangers' Infield - Three Beemers and a Dodge

These new Texas Rangers have been an amazing story the past two years. Most baseball fans through the years remember how the Rangers were always a one-dimensional team. They could always pound the ball, but they could never pitch. From 1997 through 2008 (a twelve year stretch), the Rangers gave up an average of 883 runs per game. In seven of those seasons, the pitching staff gave up more runs than the batters plated. Obviously, that's not a winning formula. The last two seasons, the Rangers have allowed only 687 and 677 runs while scoring 787 and 855 runs respectively. That's as good a reason as any for two straight World Series appearances in a row. But as we all should now know, defense plays a key role in preventing runs and few teams do it better than the Rangers. A big part of that defense is the infield, which boasts three Beemers and a Dodge.

Perhaps it is unfair to pick on Dodge. From their television commercials, they are trying hard to change their brand/quality image. The Yugo has all but disappeared, so that analogy is too obscure. But anyway, you get the idea. The Rangers boast three sparkling defenders and then there is first base. Adrian Beltre at third? One of the best ever. Elvis Andrus? The reason Michael Young is a DH. Ian Kinsler? One of the most underrated, all around players in the game. And then there is the first base gaggle of Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli (when he isn't catching) and Michael Young. The Rangers are one cog away from a beautiful wheel.

Elvis Andrus hasn't developed as expected as a hitter, but his defense more than justifies his existence. It is not mere coincidence that the Rangers started pitching better once he became the shortstop. He was the fifth (or sixth depending on which site you believe) best fielding shortstop in baseball last season. No offense to Michael Young, but once Elvis took over, the difference was night and day.

Ian Kinsler was the third best fielding second baseman in baseball last season. He wasn't rated as highly in 2010, but injuries can explain a lot of that story. But his defense in 2011 was even better than his stellar defensive season of 2009. We can safely state that if Kinsler is healthy, then he's one of the best at his position in baseball.

We all know about Adrian Beltre. The guy is a flat out magician over at third base. Despite ups and downs with his health, Beltre (according to Fangraphs) has been 152.8 runs better than average for his career. If he can continue his pace, he won't catch Brooks Robinson in that category, but he will finish a solid second. He is the best fielding third baseman of his generation.

And then you get to first base. Mitch Moreland got the bulk of the time there. He played first for 99 games and spent another 34 games in right field (due to injuries to Nelson Cruz). Baseball-reference.com gives Moreland a -1 runs lost below average, which isn't terrible. Fangraphs has him at league average for his 99 games at first. Mike Napoli played 35 games at first. B-R has him 2 runs better than average, Fangraphs at -1.5. Michael Young played 36 games at first and B-R gives him -2 runs below average and Fangraphs, -2.1. The obvious statement is that first base fielding at first base does not match the high rent district found elsewhere around the diamond.

Despite endless Google searches, "scoop" data could not be found for an individual seasons like 2011. Tango Tiger and others have done superb studies on such data for a large number of years. Basically, these studies show how many errors are saved by first basemen. But suspicions are at least aroused by the fact that Ian Kinsler made only two throwing errors in all of 2009 and none in 2010 and yet that figure jumped to six in 2011. It's possible that he air-balled all six of those throws and without the data, who knows. But let's call it suspicious.

The bottom line here is that the Rangers are one positional fielder away from having the best infield in baseball. It's a shame that Justin Smoak needed to be traded away to obtain Cliff Lee. Smoak has all the makings of a good fielding first baseman (though his numbers there went south some in 2011). While Prince Fielder may have made the Rangers' line up invincible, he wouldn't have helped in the field. So at least that's a positive. But with Mitch Moreland penciled in as the starting first baseman and Young and Napoli continuing to take their turns over there, the Rangers' infield will continue to contain three Beemers and a Dodge...or a Kia...or..oh you get the idea.

Mitch Moreland is in a Perfect Situation

Mitch Moreland has flown under the radar for most of his time in the majors thus far. For years, the Rangers have struggled to find someone to play first base and cement that position. Smoak was supposed to be that guy. That didn't work out and Smoak was used to get Cliff Lee from the Mariners. Then the Rangers tried Chris Davis and after 45 games, he was batting under the Mendoza Line. By the time the Rangers tried their third option, Mitch Moreland, there weren't many expectations. But Moreland quietly stepped in and put his stamp on that position for perhaps years to come.

Moreland's 47 games for the Rangers at the end of last year were more solid than spectacular. He batted .255. And while that's not great, it was better than his predecessors. But Moreland was also surprisingly patient at the plate and hit nine homers in his 47 games and finished with a respectable .833 OPS, good for a 121 OPS+. But where Moreland really shined was in the post season. Moreland had a slash line of .348/.400/.500 in the post season and was really the only Rangers' threat in their weak World Series showing.

Despite Moreland's post season, analysts were not overly optimistic on his 2011 season. ZIPs pegged him with a final OPS of around .780 while Baseball Prospectus predicted an even smaller .779. In fact, BP indicated that Moreland would finish with a negative WARP. Part of that was his defensive projection, which wasn't optimistic.

So far, Moreland is making those projections look silly. He's already accumulated 0.5 WAR in just thirteen games, his defense looks much improved and his current .931 OPS and 155 OPS+ look mighty fine. To be sure, it's way too early in the season to make any kind of call on how Moreland will finish, but the early signs are very good.

The great thing for Moreland is that he is in a perfect situation in Texas. He can just be another cog in a powerful offensive wheel. With guys like Kinsler, Hamilton (when he's not hurt), Cruz, Young and Beltre in the line up, there is no pressure on Moreland to be a linchpin. Compare his situation with Jason Heyward, who the Braves need to be a star because Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla are the only other legitimate threats in that line up. Moreland doesn't have that kind of pressure to perform.

And Moreland has a history of fighting up hill. Only 25, he was only a 17th Round draft pick who has already beat long odds. He hit well in every level of the Rangers' minor league system and his minor league totals feature a slash line of: .313/.383/.509. With those numbers, which are pretty darn close to what he is doing now, there is no reason to think he can't replicate that in the majors.

Digging a little deeper into Moreland's numbers, he's successful on every pitch type except for the split-fingered fastball and the knuckleball, two pitches he won't see all the much. Since he's young, pitchers only throw him about 56 percent fastballs, but he handles the slider and curve just fine so that strategy isn't working for the pitchers thus far.

The one concern is how Moreland will fare against left handed pitching. He's only had three plate appearances this year and the Rangers seem more apt to slide Napoli or Young over to first when a tough left hander is pitching. The Rangers are probably basing that on Moreland's less than stellar .604 OPS against lefties last year. But that was in only 23 plate appearances. The Rangers should give him more at bats against lefties so he can show what he can do against them. If the team's current strategy holds up, Moreland will only play 80 percent of the time during the course of the season.

But again, Moreland is in a perfect position in Texas. He's not asked to be one of the stars. He's not in the limelight. And he is thriving. This observer thinks he will thrive all season long and for many seasons to come.