MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 14, 2015

Yesterday was a 9-6 picking day. It could have been at least one correct pick better if the Mets' bullpen hadn't crashed and burned. Collin McHugh crashed and burned too. That let me down. The Blue Jays won again, I believe their tenth in a row. That always leaves a picking dilemma because all streaks have to end some time. The entire AL East is weird right now. The Red Sox and Yankees look terrible and every other team in the division is playing gangbusters. Let's see what happens today.

Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the Tigers: I didn't know what to do with this one. I don't like picking the Indians on the road. And Corey Kluber has only shown glimpses of his last year form. But if he is on, look out. Alfredo Simon goes for the Tigers.
• The Braves over the Mets: I've already shown how when I pick too many road games I get in trouble. But I like Mike Foltynewicz and can now spell his name. And Dillon Gee can't seem to get out of his own way this year.
• The White Sox over the Rays: All that said and I pick my third straight road team. Oy. But it is Chris Sale! I have to! Of course, Nate Karns has been awful tough too. Geez.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: I think it is safe to finally pick a home team. Dan Haren is quietly having a good year. Jorge De La Rosa is probably the Rockies' most reliable starter though.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: Adam Warren has been the most consistent Yankee starter and watch, when Ivan Nova comes back, it will be Warren that gets booted to the bullpen. But the Yankees look terrible right now and the Orioles look great. Mike Wright goes for them.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: A.J. Burnett out-duels Cole Hamels. That is all.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: I have to start picking that the Blue Jays' streak will end. It's the law of averages. And Eduardo Rodriguez has been terrific for the Red Sox. Marco Estrada is someone the Red Sox can tee off against.
• The Astros over the Mariners: I really like Lance McCullers and I think the Mariners' offensive explosion was a one time thing. I am going with the Astros doing well against Roenis Elias and winning this one.
• The Nationals over the Brewers: I haven't been doing too well picking aces lately. but they are aces for a reason. Max Scherzer really should win this one even though Taylor Jungmann was really good in his MLB debut.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: The Royals are one team that really suffers when losing their DH in a National League park. The Cards have already taken the first two games. Now we will see if they can sweep with John Lackey on the mound against Chris Young.
• The Angels over the Athletics: The Angels finish the sweep and beat my favorite, Sonny Gray, in the process. That is because Matt Shoemaker will be good too.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: The Giants haven't scored at all in this series, but that could change today as they face Rubby De La Rosa who has been getting hit hard lately. I'm always leery of a pitcher coming off a no-hitter, but Chris Heston is my pick today.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: This pick was wrong yesterday as Ian Kennedy held the Dodgers down (surprisingly). James Shields is currently capable of that as well. But I have had great success picking Mike Bolsinger thus far this year and I'm sticking to it.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Jon Lester has to keep the top of the lineup in check and then deal with Todd Frasier, a good right-handed bat. If he can do those things, he can win. He will have to be on his game because Anthony DeSclafani has been pretty solid for the Reds.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Rangers over the Twins: The Rangers have been on a roll and the Twins are rolling backwards. Phil Hughes will give up a homer or two and Nick Martinez will continue his good pitching. The wild card here is Buxton.

Yesterday: 9-6, June: 92-82, Season: 470-435, Picks of the Day: 36-31

Swimming against the strikeout tide

Never in the history of Major League Baseball has the strikeout been as prevalent as it is in today's game. The rate has risen every year and 2014 stands to break another record as the average strikeout rate in baseball is 7.73 strikeouts per nine. Even so, there are a few throwbacks to a bygone era whose current strikeout rates would not have been league average unless they pitched way back in 1981.

There are currently six pitchers who have pitched at least 50 innings who have a strikeout per nine rate less than 5.0 per nine. They are: Paul Maholm (3.96), Nick Martinez (4.22), Kevin Correia and Chris Young (4.48), Bronson Arroyo (4.92) and Kyle Gibson (4.93). Two of those pitch for the Twins.

It gets worse for the Twins from there. There are eighteen pitchers who have logged twenty innings or more this season with less than five strikeouts per nine innings and five of them are Twins. And Matt Guerrier would be on the list too if he had two more innings pitched. Throw them strikes, boys, and let them hit the ball!

The K/9 rate might not actually be the best way to look at strikeouts and pitchers. There is also strikeout percentage, which is all about the percentage of strikeouts per plate appearance rather than by inning. It might be a truer picture.

There are 21 pitchers whose strikeout percentage is less than 15% and who have pitched at least 50 innings. There are 55 who have done the trick with 20 innings or more. Just to give you some perspective, 20.3% is the Major League average. So these guys really are swimming against the strikeout tide.

Only one pitcher is averaging less than 10% for a strikeout rate with 50 or more innings and that is/was Paul Maholm. If you go to twenty innings or more, there are four: Mike Pelfrey (8.4% [!]), LaTroy Hawkins--otherwise known as Methuselah--(9.8%), Scott Carroll and Maholm at 9.7%.

For those who are close to Maholm with more than 50 innings, there is Nick Martinez at 10.7% in 59+ innings whose home ballpark is in Texas--not a good combination. Kevin Correia comes in at 11.3% followed by Chris Young at 12.2% and then by Eric Stults at 12.5%. These guys are fighting the tide and only Chris Young is somewhat succeeding with his offerings.

Last year, there were only five qualified starters who finished with less than 15% for a strikeout rate. The bottom two were Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Correia. So far this year there are twelve. I don't know if that means there are more exceptions to the rule this year than last or that injuries have forced teams to go with more pitchers who do not fit today's pitching mold.

What I do know is that ten years ago (2005) there were 42 qualifying pitchers that finished with a strikeout percentage of less than 15%. While to this point, twelve is more than the two from last year, we can easily see that this is a dying breed.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 29, 2014

I feel like the Pirates this morning. I cannot get on any kind of roll. I have a bad night, then a good night, then another bad night. Clayton Kershaw is a pretty good lock for the Game of the Day, right? Apparently not. That feature is drowning being incorrect for five straight games.

Even if I was blindly picking the games at random, I think I would be more successful than this. Supposedly, I know what I'm doing. Supposedly, I've been watching fifty years of baseball and having some idea how what's what. I pour over the stats every day. And the picks make me look like a complete dope. Of all shticks to pick, why did I pick this one?

Thursday is a short schedule day. Here are the picks for the ten games to be played:

• The Rangers over the Twins: Nick Martinez has made two starts now and did quite  well in both of them. My only concern is the lack of strikeouts. The BABIP bug has to snap up and bite him once in a while. But I think the Ranger will hit Sam Deduno.
• The Athletics over the Tigers: The A's are a really good team and their comeback win yesterday really isn't that much of a surprise. The Tigers never seem to do it right when it comes to getting a closer. Joe Nathan's shelf life might be one year beyond fresh. Anyway, I think Jesse Chavez will be better than Rick Porcello.
• The Phillies over the Mets: The Phillies are on a bit of a roll and they too had a dramatic finish to their game last night. David Buchanan throws strikes and you have to like that. Again, he is not a big strikeout guy though. Zack Wheeler seems to be lost in a sea of stuff.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: How can you pick against the Blue Jays these days? I did yesterday and got burned. The Royals, on the other hand, are in desperate need of new leadership. R.A. Dickey over James Shields.
• The Red Sox over the Braves: Have the Braves looked terrible in this series or have the Red Sox looked good? Take your pick I suppose. The Red Sox complete the sweep with Jake Peavy over Mike Minor.
• The Orioles over the Astros: Ubaldo Jimenez is 4-0 lifetime against the Astros with some of his best stats against any team. But these aren't the same Astros. This version has won ten of fifteen and has George Springer. I'd go with the Astros if Brad Peacock wasn't their starter tonight. The guy can't buy a win.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: Ryan Vogelsong has been pitching well but is always vulnerable in my book. Jaime Garcia has looked good and is always tough at home. That is how I'm going then.
• The Diamondbacks over the Reds: This is a tough one. Josh Collmenter has won his last two starts, but is not quite as good at home as on the road. The D-backs hit lefties better because all of their good hitters bat from the right side. Tony Cingrani is a lefty. I'm going Diamondbacks.
• The Angels over the Mariners: Matt Shoemaker is 2-0 as a starter in three starts for the Angels. His stats look real too. Brandon Maurer will suffer in comparison to King Felix and his pitches will look like beach balls to the Angels after last night.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Pirates: Okay, this is my new tactic. If a team is the Game of the Day pick and loses instead, the odds are they will win the next night. Has it really come to this insanity? I pick against the Pirates because I am blindly angry that they have left Gregory Polanco rotting in the minors simply because of money when their offense ahs struggled all year. It's the worst thing in the world to me. YOU PUT THE BEST TEAM ON THE FIELD! Oh! Dan Haren over Gerrit Cole.

Yesterday: 6-9, May (is it over yet?): 203-183, Games of the Day: 25-29, Season: 436-355