Last Giants hurrah for Pablo Sandoval?

I have been sitting here anticipating tonight's contest between the San Francisco Giants and the Pittsburgh Pirates in the wild card game in Pittsburgh. And during those random thoughts, Pablo Sandoval crossed my mind. And that led me to start wondering what the future holds for Sandoval and the Giants.

That future could be colored by what happens not only tonight but moving forward should the Giants go on to the NLDS. After all, Sandoval was the star of the 2012 post season as he had one of the most amazing power displays seen anywhere. Should the Giants go past the Pirates and deep into the post season with Sandoval a large part of the successful run, then sentiment could get in the way of reality. And the reality is a bit troubling.

As a person who has fought my own weight challenges, I am sensitive to calling out athletes for their physique. But it is a known fact that the Giants have long been concerned about Sandoval's tendency to put on weight and have made some conditions in the past. Look at these next two pictures, the first one from early in the season and the second from this past month and you'll see where I'm going here.

#484444357 / gettyimages.com

#183108275 / gettyimages.com

While the Giants might be alarmed at the trend showing in the pictures, perhaps I am not so much. But it isn't just the size of Sandoval that has me thinking hard about his future with the Giants--it is his performance.

When I look at Sandoval's offensive numbers for the last three seasons, I see a general decline. Looking at his wRC+, his numbers have gone down every year for three years now. They are respectively: 149, 118, 116, 111. As a result his offensive has gone from being worth 23.8 runs in 2011 to 3.4 runs this season. If you just look at the raw OPS numbers, respectively, they go: .909, .789, .758 and .739.

Those numbers show a definite decline over the past three seasons. But all offense in MLB has suffered these past three seasons. So we have to be careful to judge Sandoval's decline by the overall offensive decline in baseball. The wRC+ statistic already does a bit of that for us, but I wanted to look at it another way.

The total offensive production in baseball in 2014 was only 98.0% of what it was in 2013. And 2013 was only 98.6% of where it was in 2012. Those are definite declines. If we d othe same thing for Sandoval the past two seasons, we see that his offense in 2014 was only 97.5% of what it was in 2013 and 96.1% of what it was in 2012. So Sandoval's decline has been more marked than MLB's.

There is difficulty finding any offensive number for Pablo Sandoval that stands up to his career average. So what has caused the decline?

I cannot see the new defensive shifts having much affect on him. His BABIP over the last three years has been remarkably consistent: .301, .301, .300. His batted ball statistics haven't changed all that much with negligible changes in line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. His fly ball to homer ratio has gone down some from his earlier career, but have been somewhat consistent his last three seasons. So what is it then?

Sandoval can still do some damage against the fastball, but he is not as successful against sliders as he was in the past and he is even less successful than ever before in his career against the change-up. Sandoval used to score highly against change-ups, but that is no longer the case.

My current theory is that Sandoval's swing first and ask questions later approach is working against him. Sandoval has never been a patient hitter. For his career, Sandoval has swung at 45.7% of pitches out of the strike zone. That is one of the highest figures in baseball. But that figure jumped up to 48% this past season. So Sandoval is hacking indiscriminately at everything he sees. His overall swing percentage of 59.5% led all of baseball and was his highest since his rookie season.

Sandoval's contract ran through 2014.  I cannot find that there is an option involved. I don't think so. So either the Giants let him walk or they give him the $14 million offer to stay for a year. Sandoval supposedly had a good year fielding at third and because of that, came in with a value (depending on the two sites) of somewhere in the 3.2 WAR range. That makes the $14 million offer a fair one.

And that may be the way to go as signing Pablo Sandoval with his declining offensive production and expanding...umm...well, you know...would make a long-term deal a scary proposition. But then again, if Sandoval has another one of those crazy-awesome post seasons again, there might be too many warm fuzzies to see clearly.

The obscure batting awards of the 2013 MLB season

This is certainly award season on the baseball calendar and aside from all the rumors going on about who is going to sign where or get traded, there is not a whole lot else to talk about. I like to make up my own awards and apparently I have hit on something as my silly awards have led to unprecedented page views. I have covered the major categories such as the worst starting pitching, worst relief pitching and worst overall position player awards. What follows are some more obscure ones.

The Killing Two Birds with one Ball Award

Matt Holliday led both leagues in grounding into double plays. Since he plays on the Cardinals, the killing two birds thing works very nicely. Holliday created 62 outs with his 31 GIDPs. Martin Prado was second with 29 and Billy Butler led the American League with 28.

I like to put these kinds of things into percentages and Holliday also led the majors in GIDP as a percentage of his plate appearances. His rate turned out to be 5.1%. Erik Kratz of the Phillies had only 68 games with the Phillies and still managed to hit into 11 double plays for a 5.0% rate. David Freese was third with a 4.8% rate followed by the only other two over four percent: Prado at 4.4% and Butler at 4.2%.

The Crime Doesn't Pay Award

I forget what the prevailing wisdom is on what stealing success rate is acceptable. Was it 70%? Whatever it is, none of these dudes came close. I don't know if these players tried to steal bases on their own or were sent by their managers. Whichever the case, they should stop. My cut off line was five caught steals. After all, you cannot punish a guy for just trying a couple of times. But if we go by 30% as an acceptable fail rate, the following players, of course, go beyond unacceptable with their fail rates:

1. 53.8% fail rate: Manny Machado - Six stolen bases in 13 attempts. Robbie Grossman of the Astros had the exact same numbers.
2. 50% fail rate: Brandon Barnes (11, 22), Gerardo Parra (10,20) and Yoenis Cespedes (7,14)
3. 47.6% fail rate: Adeiny Hechavarria (11, 21) Was there anything Adeiny did well in 2013??
4. 45.5% fail rate: Anthony Rizzo, Andrelton Simmons, Todd Frazier (all 6, 11)
5. 42.4% fail rate: Ian Kinsler (15, 26). Does Ron Washington have a don't steal sign?
6. 42.1% fail rate: Yasiel Puig (11, 19). The man did run into some outs.

The Down and Outs Award

This award goes to the player who created the most outs with his plate appearances in 2013. Outs are recorded by the number of times a player gets himself out plus caught stealing, sacrifice flies and sacrifice bunts. Our winner is Starlin Castro of the Cubs with 530 outs created. Manny Machado was second with 500 and Mark Trumbo third with 495. 

The Swing Batter Batter Swing Award

Let's face it. There are some baseball players who go up to the plate hacking. They are not interested in working the count or anything like that. Life is short and they are going to swing the bat. The lowest walk percentages this season:

1. A.J. Pierzynski - 2.1%
2. Alcides Escobar - 3.0%
3. Wilin Rosario - 3.2%
4. Yuniesky Betancourt - 3.4%
5. Adam Jones and J.P. Arencibia - 3.6%

The batters with the highest swing percentage at balls out of the strike zone were: 

1. A.J. Pierzynski - 49.6%
2. Pablo Sandoval - 45.5%
3. Adam Jones - 44.9%
4. Alfonso Soriano - 43.3%
5. Nolan Arenado - 42.8%

The Woe is My wOBA Award

The worst five wOBA statistic recorded in 2013 with a minimum of 400 plate appearances:

1. Pete Kozma - .241
2. Alcides Escobar - .247
3. Adeiny Hechavarria - .251
4. Darwin Barney - .252 (555 plate appearances)
5. B.J. Upton - .252 (446 plate appearances)

The Hey Your Infield Fly Is Open Award

The highest infield fly ball percentages were:

1. Vernon Wells: 20.3%
2. B.J. Upton: 19.7%
3. Andrelton Simmons: 17.8%
4. Jose Bautista. Josh Willingham: 17.6%

The Hit It Where There Are No Screws Award

The lowest line drive percentages in the MLB in 2013 were:

1. Dan Uggla - 13.2%
2. Kelly Johnson - 15.2%
3. Juan Lagares - 15.7%
4. Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Bautista - 16.1%

The Hitting 'Em Where They Are Awards

The five lowest BABIPs of 2013 go to:

1. Darwin Barney - .222
2. Dan Uggla - .225
3. Yuniesky Betancourt - .226
4. David Murphy - .227
5. J.P. Arencibia - .231

The Stirring the Breeze Award

These five players led the Majors in swinging and missing as rated by their swing and miss percentage:

1. Yasiel Puig - 16.9%
2. Pedro Alvarez - 16.4%
3. Josh Hamilton - 16.2%
4. Chris Carter - 15.5%
5. B.J. Upton - 15.3%

The Calculator Not Needed to Total Bases Award

The three lowest total bases accumulated for batters with more than 400 plate appearances were:

1. Pete Kozma - 112
2. B.J. Upton - 113
3. Placido Polanco - 114

Nobody else was under 130.

The Ultimate Sacrifice Award

The most total combined sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies were:

1. Zack Cosart - 23 (13 sacrifice bunts plus 10 sacrifice flies)
2. Elvis Andrus - 22 (16 sacrifice bunts plus 6 sacrifice flies)

The RC Coda Award

RC stands for Runs Created and it is a Bill James statistic for estimating a players contribution to the overall runs a team scored. These two players created the least amount of runs for their team according to B-R:

• Darwin Barney - 37 in 555 plate appearances
• Adeinny Hechavarria - 38 in 578 plate appearances

The Punching Judy Award

Pete Kozma became only the third player in this century to record a slugging percentage under .275 with more than 400 plate appearances. The other two were Cesar Izturis in 2010 (.268) and Nick Punto in 2007 (.271).

The At Least I Jacked One Award

This was the first season since 2008 where every batter over 400 plate appearances hit at least one homer. But two guys only hit one homer in 2013. Those would be Pete Kozma and Placido Polanco

The Three Outcome Heroes Award

The following players had the highest percentage of their plate appearances being walks+strikeouts+homers:

1. Chris Carter - 53.2%
2. Dan Uggla - 50.3%
3. Mike Napoli - 49.8%
4. Adam Dunn - 49.2%

Vlad is Dethroned

Free swingers roam the earth despite the earth shift toward working the count and raising your on base percentage. The fact is that such players always existed and always will. For every Mickey Mantle, there was an Andre Dawson. For years, the free swinging champion was Vladimir Guerrero. Everyone knows that Vlad will swing at anything. He had his competitors. Ivan Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Miguel Olivo and A.J. Pierzynski come to mind as challengers and as expected, for the last three years, all of these players are in the top ten for the highest O-Swing in baseball. Vlad is on top, of course. But he was beaten in 2011. Who dethroned the Impaler? Pablo Sandoval.

Leave it to someone with just as much of a cool nickname as the Impaler to finally beat the great Vladimir. Well, a Panda is quite a bit more warm and fuzzy as an Impaler is. But anyway, the Panda beat the old man and it wasn't as if the old man wasn't trying. Vlad swung at 47.4 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. It was the "best" mark of his career. Guerrero's always been known as a free swinger. But he's gotten freer the older he has gotten. Heck, when he was younger, his rates were in the mid-thirties for a percentage. But age apparently has made Vlad even less patient than his younger years.

And so Vlad had his most impatient season ever. But he was defeated by Pablo Sandoval. The Panda swung at a mind-numbing 47.6 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. Well, sure, it's only two small percentage points different than Vlad's, but still. You have to celebrate what you can in baseball.

Despite all the swings, Sandoval had a very good year. In 117 games (he had a large stint on the DL) he compiled an OPS of .909. The slimmed-down dude also had his best year with the glove at third and compiled the highest WAR of his career. He hit over .300 for the third time in his four year career. So somehow, Sandoval makes it work.

And perhaps that's a point to be taken here. Guerrero is a borderline Hall of Fame player. He's compiled a lifetime OPS of .931 despite being a free swinger his entire career. Now that he is older, it works less for him of course and anyone who continues to employ him is probably a little daft for doing so. But for the most part, Guerrero has made his free swinging lifestyle work. Sandoval seems to be his heir. It's not a lifestyle that pleases the analysts, but those swings deliver contact that more often than not, find a safe haven among or over the fielders.

Tomorrow we'll have part two of the free swinging life (sounds kinky doesn't it?) as we examine free swingers and post season success.