The first pitch means a lot

There is one statement I can make that I absolutely cannot get wrong. The first pitch of every plate appearance will be either a strike or a ball. A batter might put the ball in play on that first pitch, or it might hit him. But it does not matter. It is either a ball or a strike. And whichever that first pitch is has a lot to do with how successful a pitcher (or batter) is going to be. This is such a no-brain thing that you know pitching coaches have been stressing it since time began. Or perhaps I am giving them too much credit because the percentage of first pitch strikes has not always remained static.

How much difference does it make? In 2012, if the pitcher started the plate appearance with a first pitch strike, the subsequent plate appearance averaged a .612 OPS. If that first pitch was a ball, the plate appearance led to an .822 OPS. That is a 210 point swing in OPS. Is that significant? It sure seems like it to me. 

And those results seem to be rather static. For example, in 2011, when a first pitch was a strike, the plate appearance led to a .606 OPS and a first pitch ball led to an .821 OPS. In 2010, it was .615/.824. In 2009, it was .629/.852. The spread is pretty similar from year to year. The conclusion we can make here is that throwing a first pitch strike leads to a lower OPS and is thus important.

And for some reason, pitchers are getting the message. Whether it is an improvement in talent, some help from the umpires, or whatever, the bottom line is that the last three years--notably considered pitchers' years--first pitch strikes have risen somewhat dramatically and league OPS has tumbled. Smoking gun? I'm sure there are other factors, but yeah. It has to have some impact. 

Look at the charts I have put together. The first is my data. The first column is the total number of plate appearances that started with a strike. The second is the total number of plate appearances that started with a ball and that gives us a first-pitch strike percentage. The rest of the chart shows whether the pitcher was ahead in the count when the ball was put in play or whether he was behind. I thought those two items were interesting too and did show a slow change over time from 2001 to 2012. The last column is the league OPS for each season.

You should notice that things stayed pretty close in range from 2001 to 2009. There was just a slight increase in first pitch strike percentage. But the last three years have shown a dramatic rise in first pitch strikes. The chart should illustrate it better:

I am not smart enough to say that Point A is caused by Point B, but look at a similar chart that tracks OPS over the same time period:

I am sure that I am not breaking new ground here. It was simply something that caught my interest and I thought I would share it with you. Let's look at some individual pitchers for a minute.

In 2012, the three starting pitchers with the lowest first pitch strike percentage were Ubaldo Jimenez, Edinson Volquez and Ricky Romero. Jimenez and Romero had really disappointing seasons. Volquez had a slightly better season in 2012 than he did in 2011, but some of that had to do with pitching his home games in San Diego instead of Cincinnati. When Jimenez threw a first pitch strike, he had a 4.60 strikeout to walk percentage. When he threw a first pitch ball, his strikeout to walk percentage sank to 0.68. So yes, it mattered a great deal what he did on the first pitch.

The highest first pitch strike percentage belonged to Cliff Lee, which is no surprise at all. And that made a dramatic difference for Lee. When he threw a first pitch ball, his OPS against was .821 in the subsequent plate appearances with a 3.00 strikeout to walk ratio. When he threw a first pitch strike, his strikeout to walk ratio ballooned to 13.25 and his OPS against was .564.

For relief pitchers, the two leaders in first pitch strikes were Jason Motte and Craig Kimbrel. Yeah, those two guys had pretty good seasons. The two with the lowest first pitch strike percentage were Carlos Marmol and Ramon Ramirez, certainly not two relief pitchers that instill confidence when they take the mound.

Baseball has changed from 2001 to 2012. You can point to PEDs if you want to. But from what these stats tell me, the biggest difference has been a rise in first pitch strikes. There is a cause and effect in a plate appearance on whether the first pitch is a strike or a ball. And the stats show that first pitch strikes have been on the rise and are much higher than they were in 2001. Strikeouts have risen to record levels. Throwing first pitch strikes will not guarantee you will be a successful pitcher. But it sure does help.

How good is Ricky Romero?

How good was the first round of the 2005 draft? Upton went first to the Diamondbacks. Gordon went to the Royals with the second pick. Jeff Clement was chosen by the Mariners. Okay, that one did not work out. Zimmerman went to the Nationals. Braun went to the Brewers. Ricky Romero went to the Blue Jays and Tulowitzki went to the Rockies. Not a bad top six, eh? Later picks in the round included Bruce, McCutchen, Maybin and Ellsbury. That is a lot of talent. You might have noticed that Ricky Romero was the first pitcher selected in that draft. Probably few outside of Canada know that. But then again, few outside of Canada know how good a pitcher Ricky Romero is and is becoming. At the age of 27, Romero has already won 45 games and he just keeps getting better.

Romero's 45 wins come against just 29 losses. That is a winning percentage over .600 despite the fact that his team, the Toronto Blue Jays, have been stuck at a .500 pace since Romero arrived in the majors. There are a few other things you notice about Romero. First, he hasn't missed a start since being called up for the first time in 2009. That's pretty darn dependable. Every fifth day, he is going to be there. The second thing you notice is that he hasn't exactly been a "shut down" kind of pitcher. His 3.58 career ERA and 4.03 career FIP don't remind you of a Strasburg. But he's not that kind of pitcher.

Romero doesn't blaze away with his fastball. He throws consistently in the 90 to 91 MPH range. He throws a four-seam and two-seam fastball, a curve, a change up and a slider/cutter. The latter pitch is debated between Fangraphs (which calls it a cutter) and PitchF/X (which calls it a slider). When his curve is on, it's a terrific pitch. And between the two-seam fastball and the change up, Romero gets a lot of ground balls. 

Romero's ground ball rate is terrific at 54.7 percent for his career. It is even higher this year at 56.2 percent. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is at 1.95 for his career but is a career best, 2.41 this season. This is also important for him because if batters hit the balls in the air, a somewhat large percentage of them go over the wall. Playing his home games in Toronto (a homer-prone park) does not help there. But when Romero is on, batters are pounding the ball into the ground.

The one real weakness Romero has in his game is his walk rate. It sits at 3.53 percent for his career. The good news there is that it was lower every season since 2009. But it has bounced a little higher this year, but it is early yet. Imagine how good he could be if he got that walk rate down around 2 percent! 

The lowered walk rate each season combined with an improved hits per nine rate every season of his career mean that his WHIP improves every season. Here is the progression:

• 2009 - 1.522
• 2010 - 1.290
• 2011 - 1.138
• 2012 - 1.061

That is a pitcher who is only getting better and better. A natural byproduct of that lowered hits per nine rate is that his BABIP has gone lower every season he has been in the big leagues. BABIP is often associated with luck. But that doesn't seem to be the case with Romero. He simply has induced weaker contact as he career progresses. And base runners who do get on are often erased via the double play. Romero induced 28 double plays last season and is averaging one per game this season.

Ricky Romero may not win Cy Young Awards. He is not a high strikeout pitcher and plays in a homer-prone park. That means his FIPs are never going to look as pretty as say a Verlander. But this is one heck of a pitcher. He is going to win sixty percent of his games. He is going to take the ball every fifth day and that is the kind of pitcher that just about every team in the majors would love to have. And the good news for the Blue Jays? They already have him tied up with a contract that keeps him a Blue Jay through 2016.