Four MLB managers that should be fired

Baseball is a tough business. And it is not tougher on anyone more than managers. They do not play the game. The players do. But in most cases, if the team struggles, the manager is going to be the one to pay with his job. That's the way it has always been and it will always be the case. Sometimes the ax is deserved. Sometimes it is not. Girardi never should have been fired by the Marlins. The same with Francona from the Red Sox. But Valentine? Yeah. Looking out over the season and taking into account the previous seasons, which managers should not survive to lead their teams into 2015?

1. Kirk Gibson. Kirk Gibson is one of those real men of baseball. He earned his reputation as a player and will always have that home run off of Eckersley on his resume. His time with the Diamondbacks has not gone as well. His marine-like approach has chased away some of his best players, led to the trade of good young players and gets him in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Despite the way he thinks and acts, Kirk Gibson is not the beacon of baseball as how it should be played and conducted. But Gibson hasn't acted alone. The leadership issue has been a problem there and hence Tony La Russa was brought in to straighten it all out. You haven't seen too much of La Russa's stamp on things yet. But you will. The first will be getting a manager he believes in.

So long, Mr. Gibson.

2. Ned Yost. I have been on this bandwagon for far too long. Yes, the Royals are in the thick of the wild card race. Yes, they had a great second half of last season. The Royals correctly focused on defense.

But Yost has failed on many fronts. His game-decisions are detrimental more often than not. His young players have not developed once they became Major League players and as the leader of his staff, that is on him.

The Royals had a window with James Shields and others to finally overcome decades of obscurity. That window is closing and Yost needs to go. But he won't. Mark my words, he will be in the dugout in 2015.

3. Ron Washington. It is hard to blame Washington on the injuries that decimated his team this year. But it is not just this year that is to think about. Washington's in-game decisions are probably discussed more than any other manager in baseball. So there is that. But you also--fairly or not--look at two World Series he could not win, diminishing returns since the team's last World Series appearance and then this dreadful season.

Teams have really bad years. It happens. But what kind of fight do the teams put up while they are losing. The Astros fight tooth and nail every game. The Rangers have not. I put that on the manager and the culture he fosters.

There is a lot to look at with the Rangers' situation. There was the power struggle that saw Nolan Ryan head out the door. There are some questionable trades (Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler is one).

You can look at all those situations and assign blame as well as put some of the onus on the injury thing. But it's time for a change in Texas and a new face needs to be in the dugout.

4. Ron Gardenhire. Gardenhire is beloved in Minnesota. I get that. He is a fixture and a link to a glorious past. But he is also an anchor that keeps the team from going forward. Gardenhire sets the tone for the organization on what it wants from its pitchers, for example. The team has long traded for and tried to develop pitchers to pitch to contact and throw strikes. The result is that the Twins are flowing against the tide of history. The strikeout has taken over baseball. The Twins have missed the boat.

It also seems that baseball has passed the Twins by. The Twins don't do defensive shifts. They don't seem interested in modern statistics. The Twins need sweeping changes to find a new path in today's game. And it all starts with Ron Gardenhire.

Honorable mention:

• Ryne Sandberg. His handling of his personnel has been questionable. The team is out-performing its run differential, so I'd give him a couple more years to figure it out.
• Walt Weiss. It is hard to blame Weiss for the dysfunction of his organization and a ballpark that will always defeat the Rockies. I don't know the Rockies can ever be successful.
• John Farrell. His managing career consists of three underwhelming teams and a World Series title. How do you make sense of any of that?
• Robin Ventura. The White Sox are out-performing their run differential. But they should be better. I don't like Ventura's laid back stance and his body language in the dugout. It does not project a winning and vibrant atmosphere.

Twins settle on continuity with Gardenhire

How many teams in Major League Baseball would give a two year extension to a manager whose team has had two identical 66-96 seasons in a row? I cannot think of many. Thus, it was somewhat surprising that the Minnesota Twins gave Ron Gardenhire a two-year extension. After reading the link provided to you here, I can understand some of the thinking behind the Twins' decision. What I am still unsure about is whether or not I buy into the decision.

One of the difficult things about writing a piece like this is not really knowing the situation as a "blogger" versus being a beat writer who knows the organization better. For example, I cannot write with certainty over where the Twins' organizational philosophy of starting pitching comes from. The perception is that it comes from Gardenhire. But is that true? The only nuggets or hints of that being the case are his famous statements back in the day about Francisco Liriano throwing too many strikeouts. But is that a smoking gun?

The facts are that the Twins' pitching staffs have finished dead last in pitching strikeouts in the American League for three straight seasons. And the two previous seasons before that, the Twins finished tenth out of fourteen AL teams. In an era that has seen the strikeout become more prevalent everywhere, the Twins have refused to join the party.

Preventing walks has also been part of that philosophy. And to a degree, they have been successful. Since 2009, they have finished first, first, sixth, sixth and third in the American League in preventing walks.

Whether Gardenhire is behind this organizational philosophy or it can be attributed to someone else, it obviously is not working. Think of the pitchers the team has brought in over the last several seasons. Guys like Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia and others are all of the low strikeout rate ilk.

Then you have pitchers they have developed and brought to the Majors like P.J. Walters, Andrew Albers, Liam Hendriks, Scott Diamond and Anthony Swarzak. There is not a strikeout pitcher among them. And their minor league system continues the same way.

At the Triple-A level, their top seven pitchers in games started feature strikeout rates from 4.3 to 7.9 with five other rates in between. At the Double-A level, Trevor May and Alex Meyer average over nine strikeouts per nine. The rest are in the 3.8 to 7.1 range. At the Advanced A level, their pitchers with the most amount of starts range from 4.4 to 6.5 strikeouts per nine.

So in their top three minor league levels, they have two starting pitchers with a K/9 rate over 7.9. This is a pitch-to-contact-limit-walk philosophy. As the last couple of seasons have shown, this is not the new market inefficiency.

It is clear that the Minnesota Twins need to do something different. Their acquisitions from the outside and their drafting on the inside has to include the possibility that a guy is going to strike people out. Retaining Ron Gardenhire and his entire staff seems to work opposite of fixing what has been an organizational problem.

But perhaps those philosophies are not Gardenhire's fault or that of his staff. Perhaps removing him would not solve the problem. Perhaps the fault lies elsewhere in their organization. I just don't know enough to validly answer. But from the linked piece, Gardenhire's bosses don't see him as the problem and say they need to get him better pitching. And pitching is just one aspect of the organization's failure.

Let's just conclude that Gardenhire would not have survived two such seasons just about anywhere else. Twins fans are restless and did not receive the news very well (for the most part). Time will tell if the Twins made the right call.

Which MLB AL managers should and will be fired

Whether it is fair or not, many managers each season pay for the sins of their teams. Failed expectations, disasters or dashed dreams usually do the trick. Those dismissals usually happen during the season or directly after. The season has been quiet with only Charlie Manuel getting the ax. That was certainly a surprise, but understandable considering how listless the Phillies were playing. So that leaves the after-season. Who will face the chopping block once the season is over? What follows is a list of American League candidates followed by a prediction and one writer's opinion.

Robin Ventura - The two-year Ventura experiment should probably be put to rest. Ventura never actually aspired to manage this team and his hiring was out of the blue. Ventura's laid back ways were lauded last year but have fell with a thud this season. While it is true that his team was poorly constructed with only Adam Dunn batting above league average (as strange as that seems), Ventura should be put back out to enjoy the rest of his life. Should. Will.

Ron Gardenhire - The Gardenhire era in Minnesota has probably gone on long enough. The Twins have no immediate solutions and seem destined for another tough year or two. Why not start fresh? Plus, from this vague seat of observation, it seems that Gardenhire's reach and philosophies extend throughout the organization and they are not working. The Twins cannot continue with pitchers incapable of striking people out no matter how good they are at limiting walks. Should. 50/50.

Mike Scioscia - Much has been written in the last few days about the situation here. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports seemed to indicate that GM, Jerry DiPoto, will get the ax and the blame here. But a meddlesome owner has not helped DiPoto and in his defense, he never has had the chance to have his own guy in the dugout. If DiPoto had a numbers manager like Joe Maddon, things might be interesting. Instead he has Scioscia who is about as old school as it gets. There has to be clashes there. But Scioscia will win out. Should. Won't.

Ned Yost - This is Yost's tenth year as a manager and this year will be the first year that he has a chance to finish with more than 83 wins. Fairly or not, Yost will get some of the blame for the lack of development at the Major League level of some of the Royals' young offensive players. Expectations were high before the season with the addition of James Shields and others. The Royals are improved, but not by much and are below their Pythagorean win-loss record. Should. Will.

John Gibbons - No team had higher expectations entering the season. They were the darlings of the preseason picks. But reality has been cruel in Toronto and Gibbons' one year return to the Toronto dugout might be the cost for the disappointment. While it is easy to point to injuries in the rotation, the team seemed listless for most of the season, lacked spark and even Jose Reyes seems muted in personality. Should. Will.

Eric Wedge - This is a confusing one. Wedge, of course, just suffered a mild stroke, so we will have to see how that plays out. The Mariners' record is actually better than their run differential should be (the basis of the Pythagorean win-loss stat). He just seems so blah though. Should not. 50/50.

Bo Porter - What chance did Bo Porter have this season? One Yankees infielder was more expensive than his entire team. His team jumped to a new league, played an impossible schedule and had little talent. But despite it all, the Astros remain fun to watch and play with enthusiasm. If four or five of these young players can develop in the Majors instead of in the minors, they could turn into something. Plus, all those top round draft picks will help. Porter has done a good job in a bad situation. Should not. Will not.

The view from here is that the rest of the AL managers will be safe and rightly so. Tomorrow, we will look at the National League.

Twins Like Continuity

Yesterday, the Fan posted on how Mike Scioscia and the Angels keep churning out managerial proteges that end up having success on other teams. It is sort of a present day situation much like Earl Weaver proteges of the past. Perhaps the Red Sox will join that situation as the great Terry Francona has lost a coach to lead the Blue Jays. After posting those thoughts, one of the Fan's favorite commenters (which is probably not a real word) asked why the Twins don't have the same brain drain. It was an excellent question.

Ron Gardenhire has had the same coaching staff for his entire tenure as manager of the Twins. It is truly a remarkable run. Gardy himself succeeded the legendary Tom Kelly. Gardenhire was Kelly's third base coach. And yet, few outside of Minnesota would even know who the Twins' coaches are. They are: Nick Anderson (pitching coach), Joe Vavra (hitting coach), Jerry White (first base coach), Scott Ullger (third base coach), Steve Liddle (bench coach) and Rick Stelmaszek (bullpen coach). Not exactly household names, eh? Only Jerry White had a lengthy playing career and he is the only one of the group without some managing experience in either the minors or in college. The Fan can remember when Gardenhire got the managing job and thought at the time, "Who?" It's no different today.

To this observer, it appears that the Twins value continuity above all else. They are famous for having a solid and consistent value set that is set in place all through their system including the minor leagues. Their instruction and mindset as an organization is legendary. And that seems to be modeled at the major league level. The Fan would also assume that the Twins reward their instructors and their coaches well enough to keep them happy in their places. Plus, they probably build a team mentality above all else and that kind of loyalty is hard to leave when a family is built that all moves together.

No, the Twins are not like the Angels or the Patriots in the NFL who do a fantastic job of turning over their coaching staff regularly and bring in equally competent people. The Twins are all about doing things the Twins way and who can argue with their success. The only knock on the Twins is that they haven't taken their success to the next level to win a championship.

Thanks for the comment, my friend, and it is hoped this somewhat answers your question.

Second Guessing Gardenhire

The Twins have a four game cushion on the Chicago White Sox. But as the White Sox have already proved once this season, you make a mistake if you think they are dead. That's why every game counts and the Twins blew one today. It's very easy for a blogger to second guess a manager. In fact it is too easy. But hey, the guys are millionaires and that's part of the job. The Fan tries to do this as little as possible, but this one screams out so loud that it can't go without at least one more look.

The Twins are having trouble scoring runs and they were holding on to a slim one-run lead (it was 1-0 in fact). Carl "Freakin'" Pavano continued his great season (despite the recent losses) and held the Mariners scoreless through six. The Twins pushed their one run through in the top of the seventh on a Cuddyer homer. Pavano started the bottom of the seventh and this is where the problems began.

Branyon grounded out and then Lopez singled. Kotchman singled to right center but Lopez stopped at second. Pavano then threw a wile pitch (catchers who can block those kinds of things should get more credit). This is where the Fan thinks Gardenhire messed up. It's second and third with one out. Franklin Gutierrez was at the plate. Gutierrez isn't having that good a year. His average is under .250 and his OBP is under .310. But for the Mariners, that's one of their better hitters. Plus, he was good last year. He's already ahead in the count thanks to the wild pitch. Why not walk him to load the bases?

That makes even more sense when you consider who was coming up after him, the one, the only, Adam Moore. Catching has been the pit of hell for the Mariners for a couple of seasons now. Moore is probably a nice receiver, but his OPS is sitting at .523. Five-Twenty-Three! His OPS+ is 44 and his career (short though it is) OPS+ is 48. Sure, he hit some in the minors and is actually #83 on Baseball Prospectus's list of top prospects. That's pretty good. But the Fan goes by the theory that a prospect isn't a player until he proves he can do it in the majors and so far, Moore hasn't done that.

A golden rule in baseball is that you don't pinch hit for your catcher. You only carry two of them and if the second catcher comes in the game and gets hurt, you are out of catchers. So Moore was going to bat one way or another. So why not take your chances with him instead of Gutierrez? But Gardenhire had Pavano pitch to Gutierrez who rapped a single to tie the score. Moore then hits a broken-bat grounder that is too slow for a double play and the second run scored. With the infield in and the bases loaded, that grounder could have gone home and no runs would have scored. Yeah, you still needed the third out, but that had to come from the number eight hitter in the batting order (Tuiasosopo), who did end the inning with an out.

The obvious play here would have been to walk Gutierrez to load the bases and then pitch to Moore. Why Gardenhire didn't go that route is hard to fathom. In this Fan's mind, the lack of a move there cost the Twins this game and kept the White Sox (who lost to the Yankees) that much closer in striking distance.