Perhaps a post that starts with such a negative heading is unsporting for a Friday. And perhaps this isn't the right time to bash a team that is already taking a lot of heat for a move it made this week during this year's version of the trade deadline. And just as likely, it's might be far too premature to be giving away season awards when there are more than 55 games to play this season. But the monumental blunder of the year has to go to the St. Louis Cardinals for making Ryan Theriot their every day shortstop for 2011. This writer panned the deal when it was first announced and at the risk of sounding puffed up, this Fan told you so.
Earlier in the year, Ryan Theriot was at least getting on base and batting lead off. By the end of May, Theriot was batting .316 with an on base percentage of .369. Cardinal fans used to the defensive skills of Brendan Ryan could at least say to themselves, "Well, at least the guy can hit." But he can't. His BABIP during those early times was .349. It was in the words of Bugs Bunny, a "miragee." And perhaps the name of Brendan Ryan should come up in this conversation since Tony LaRussa is coming under heavy fire for the Rasmus situation. Brendan Ryan was another of those players who came under LaRussa's shaggy eyebrows of scorn.
The Cardinals made a huge mistake essentially swapping Ryan for Ryan Theriot. Or, to state it as it should be stated, it was a monumental blunder. Brendan Ryan runs the bases well and he's an elite fielding shortstop. Any Cardinal fan can tell you that last year's Cardinal shortstop would have a lapse or two. But last year's shortstop also had 430 assists for a pitching staff that was built to put the ball in play. Last year's Cardinal shortstop is having a good year in Seattle. His season has been the reverse of Theriot. Brendan Ryan started slowly but has come on offensively and though he's still in below league average with his batting, he's still a star fielder.
Fangraphs gives Ryan Theriot a -10.4 rating in the field this season (UZR). Only Yuniesky Betancourt of the Brewers is rated worse. That site's overall leader board for WAR lists Betancourt as the worst shortstop in baseball and Theriot as the next to worse. Meanwhile, their former shortstop is rated as the eleventh best shortstop and the fifth best in fielding.
It seems cruel to pick on Ryan Theriot to this degree. It's not his fault really. He's just a guy trying his hardest to play the sport he loves and have as long a career he can have. The fault here really is the plan that put this in place to begin with. How can you ask a pitching staff to pitch to contact (low walks are stressed in St. Louis), and then put in place a plan that includes Ryan Theriot at short and Skip Schumaker at second? If the Cardinals had done their homework, they should have known that Theriot has no arm to back his range.
But it's not just Theriot's fielding that is a problem (though that is definitely the worst part of it), he's not great as a batter either. He's had two decent seasons in his seven year career. He has an 82 career OPS+. His 8.1 career walk percentage is deceiving as it has come down in recent years. Last year, it was 6.4 percent after posting a 7.5 percent the year before. This year is his all time worse at 5.5 percent. That's a three year downward trend. His power is non-existent, but you don't expect that from a shortstop usually.
To complete an unholy triad of statistics, Fangraphs rates Theriot in negative numbers in batting, fielding and base running. And so, it seems that this writer's reservations about this move were warranted. Theriot has been a killer.
Again, don't blame Ryan Theriot. He's doing the best he can with his ability. It's not Ryan Theriot's fault. This was poor decision making by the Cardinals as an organization and it perhaps all starts with the chutzpah of their manager. And though there may be other worthy contenders, the installation of Theriot as the Cardinals' full time shortstop for 2011 is sure to rank as the biggest organizational blunder of 2011.
Showing posts with label Ryan Theriot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Theriot. Show all posts
Friday, July 29, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Ryan Theriot - The Cardinals' Big Mistake?
Many reports seem to indicate that Tony LaRussa has won some sort of turf war over the front office that had been leaning towards using statistical analysis over LaRussa's tendency to lean on "gamers." The ultimate test of LaRussa's supposed victory will be how Ryan Theriot will perform in 2011. LaRussa has given shortstop to Theriot for better or for worse. Theriot is a huge risk.
Theriot is not a risk concerning his effort or his "games-man-ship." He will play every day and give you maximum effort. But he is sort of like Tom Petty to Bob Dylan. He's a bottom tier player in Major League Baseball. Only three other batters that qualified for the batting title had less batting value than Theriot last year. And sure, Brendan Ryan might have been one of them. But Theriot is not near the same class of defensive player that Ryan is and was for the Cardinals.
And it isn't just the much-maligned fielding stats that show he is a less than adequate fielder. Scouting reports show that he has a much-less than average arm, less than average jump on the ball and instincts and less than average accuracy on his throws. With a double-play tandem of Skip Schumaker and with Freese at third (best case scenario) and Holliday and Berkman in the outfield, you are talking about the potential for an all time brutal defense.
But unlike Berkman, Freese and Holliday, you can't get excited about any offensive possibilities with Ryan Theriot. He has shown patience at the plate in the past, but that evaporated last year. He hits less extra base hits than Ichiro and he is only successful on 68% of his steal attempts. Bill James is optimistic that Theriot will have a better year than last year. Okay, that's a good thing. But even better than last year won't make Theriot an adequate offensive player. Brendan Ryan has much more of an upside, but apparently, he wore out his welcome in St. Louis. Theriot finished at dead zero in WAR last year. And that's pretty tough to do considering the bonus points his fielding position gives him. Ryan had his worst season ever and still finished with a WAR of 0.9. And this Fan would rather have little WAR with great fielding than no WAR with lousy fielding.
The Cardinals live and die with Pujols, Holliday and pitching. The pitchers are great but are not power pitchers. They rely on people catching the weakly hit balls they induce. Weaken your defense and you weaken your pitching. The Cardinals have made a major gamble this year to do things LaRussa's way. 2011 will either show us another genius season from a manager that has pulled it off before, or it will show us a major miscalculation perhaps based on no calculations (if you get the Fan's drift). Ryan Theriot might be the little pepper pot LaRussa likes, but pepper gives a lot of people heartburn.
**UPDATE** Things get better and better! Now the Cardinals have added Nick Punto, who is basically Brendan Ryan but ten years older. Punto is also known as a "gamer."
Theriot is not a risk concerning his effort or his "games-man-ship." He will play every day and give you maximum effort. But he is sort of like Tom Petty to Bob Dylan. He's a bottom tier player in Major League Baseball. Only three other batters that qualified for the batting title had less batting value than Theriot last year. And sure, Brendan Ryan might have been one of them. But Theriot is not near the same class of defensive player that Ryan is and was for the Cardinals.
And it isn't just the much-maligned fielding stats that show he is a less than adequate fielder. Scouting reports show that he has a much-less than average arm, less than average jump on the ball and instincts and less than average accuracy on his throws. With a double-play tandem of Skip Schumaker and with Freese at third (best case scenario) and Holliday and Berkman in the outfield, you are talking about the potential for an all time brutal defense.
But unlike Berkman, Freese and Holliday, you can't get excited about any offensive possibilities with Ryan Theriot. He has shown patience at the plate in the past, but that evaporated last year. He hits less extra base hits than Ichiro and he is only successful on 68% of his steal attempts. Bill James is optimistic that Theriot will have a better year than last year. Okay, that's a good thing. But even better than last year won't make Theriot an adequate offensive player. Brendan Ryan has much more of an upside, but apparently, he wore out his welcome in St. Louis. Theriot finished at dead zero in WAR last year. And that's pretty tough to do considering the bonus points his fielding position gives him. Ryan had his worst season ever and still finished with a WAR of 0.9. And this Fan would rather have little WAR with great fielding than no WAR with lousy fielding.
The Cardinals live and die with Pujols, Holliday and pitching. The pitchers are great but are not power pitchers. They rely on people catching the weakly hit balls they induce. Weaken your defense and you weaken your pitching. The Cardinals have made a major gamble this year to do things LaRussa's way. 2011 will either show us another genius season from a manager that has pulled it off before, or it will show us a major miscalculation perhaps based on no calculations (if you get the Fan's drift). Ryan Theriot might be the little pepper pot LaRussa likes, but pepper gives a lot of people heartburn.
**UPDATE** Things get better and better! Now the Cardinals have added Nick Punto, who is basically Brendan Ryan but ten years older. Punto is also known as a "gamer."
Monday, December 13, 2010
Cardinals Give Up On Brendan Ryan
Earlier this fall, there was a post here about Tulowitzki and Drew being the two best shortstops in baseball. A comment to that post pointed out that Brendan Ryan as a fielder danced blithely above those two other guys. After taking a look at the numbers, the comment was correct. Ryan is an amazing fielding shortstop. Unfortunately, he had a terrible season batting in 2010.
How bad was it? Ryan's On Base Percentage was .279 with a batting average of .222. Ryan's never had any power, so the low average on low OBP meant a batter that offered no value at all to the Cardinals' line up. If he could just hit like he did in 2009 when he batted .292 with an OBP of .340, then he would stil be the Cardinals' shortstop. Instead, he's been traded to the Seattle Mariners for a low-minors, 100 MPH-throwing, 6.23 ERA guy in the Mariners' system (Maikel Cleto). Or to put it another way: The Cardinals dumped their shortstop for a wing and a prayer.
Frankly, this deal doesn't make sense for either team. Ryan is too good a fielding shortstop to give up on in this day and age with very few quality shortstops in the game. Ryan's results in 2009 almost exactly duplicated his career line in the minor leagues. That would seem to be more of an indication of Ryan's ability than his 2010 debacle. Check that. 2010 batting debacle. Even with his low offense, Ryan's WAR was still in the positive numbers and bWAR was almost 1. That shows you just how good a shortstop he is. If his bat can come back just a little, he could be again the player that garnered a 3.4 WAR in 2009.
Instead, the Cardinals will turn to Ryan Theriot who is three years older and has NEVER had a year close to 3.4 WAR. Theriot won't add much more with the bat than Ryan did and he is no where near as good a fielder. Theriot finished 2010 with a negative WAR according to BR. Nothing about that move makes any sense for the Cardinals. The Cardinals rely on their big starting rotation to throw a bunch of grounders and those pitchers have a weaker infield now. There is nothing about Theriot's game that thrills this Fan other than his nickname, which is world class.
This move sort of smacks of another player that got afoul of Tony LaRussa. Normally a guy like Ryan would be a LaRussa favorite, but giving the shortstop job to an inferior player has to mean that Ryan wasn't on his manager's good side.
Perhaps Theriot is just considered a place holder until the Cardinals think that Pete Kozma is ready for prime time. Kosma is highly touted but to this point, strikes out too much, doesn't get on base enough and makes a ton of errors for the Cardinals' farm teams. He was drafted #1 by the Cardinals in 2007 and they might want to see if he can play at some point this season.
Meanwhile, it's hard to figure what the Mariners will be doing with Ryan. They already have Jack Wilson, the same sort of player that Ryan is who makes $5 million a year. Getting paid that kind of money means that Wilson has to play. Perhaps the Mariners will put Ryan at second and move Figgins back to third? That's possible, but Ryan's best position is shortstop. One thing is now true though: The Mariners have two of the slickest fielding shortstops in MLB. Too bad neither of them excites anyone with their bats.
How bad was it? Ryan's On Base Percentage was .279 with a batting average of .222. Ryan's never had any power, so the low average on low OBP meant a batter that offered no value at all to the Cardinals' line up. If he could just hit like he did in 2009 when he batted .292 with an OBP of .340, then he would stil be the Cardinals' shortstop. Instead, he's been traded to the Seattle Mariners for a low-minors, 100 MPH-throwing, 6.23 ERA guy in the Mariners' system (Maikel Cleto). Or to put it another way: The Cardinals dumped their shortstop for a wing and a prayer.
Frankly, this deal doesn't make sense for either team. Ryan is too good a fielding shortstop to give up on in this day and age with very few quality shortstops in the game. Ryan's results in 2009 almost exactly duplicated his career line in the minor leagues. That would seem to be more of an indication of Ryan's ability than his 2010 debacle. Check that. 2010 batting debacle. Even with his low offense, Ryan's WAR was still in the positive numbers and bWAR was almost 1. That shows you just how good a shortstop he is. If his bat can come back just a little, he could be again the player that garnered a 3.4 WAR in 2009.
Instead, the Cardinals will turn to Ryan Theriot who is three years older and has NEVER had a year close to 3.4 WAR. Theriot won't add much more with the bat than Ryan did and he is no where near as good a fielder. Theriot finished 2010 with a negative WAR according to BR. Nothing about that move makes any sense for the Cardinals. The Cardinals rely on their big starting rotation to throw a bunch of grounders and those pitchers have a weaker infield now. There is nothing about Theriot's game that thrills this Fan other than his nickname, which is world class.
This move sort of smacks of another player that got afoul of Tony LaRussa. Normally a guy like Ryan would be a LaRussa favorite, but giving the shortstop job to an inferior player has to mean that Ryan wasn't on his manager's good side.
Perhaps Theriot is just considered a place holder until the Cardinals think that Pete Kozma is ready for prime time. Kosma is highly touted but to this point, strikes out too much, doesn't get on base enough and makes a ton of errors for the Cardinals' farm teams. He was drafted #1 by the Cardinals in 2007 and they might want to see if he can play at some point this season.
Meanwhile, it's hard to figure what the Mariners will be doing with Ryan. They already have Jack Wilson, the same sort of player that Ryan is who makes $5 million a year. Getting paid that kind of money means that Wilson has to play. Perhaps the Mariners will put Ryan at second and move Figgins back to third? That's possible, but Ryan's best position is shortstop. One thing is now true though: The Mariners have two of the slickest fielding shortstops in MLB. Too bad neither of them excites anyone with their bats.
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