Not all .300 batting averages are created equal

On a recent post, one of my most faithful readers with the great guest name of, "RichieAllen1964," did not understand what I meant by a batting average being somewhat meaningless. It is a fair question. Baseball fans like us who have been watching decades of games have been trained to think that if a batter hits .300 in a season or career, he is pretty special. While I cannot get past the old feelings that such a season or a career is pretty cool, not all .300 seasons or careers are the same.

My favorite example is the Tim Raines and Tony Gwynn career comparison. Gwynn was known as a magician with the bat and was an expert of hitting the ball "where they ain't." His career batting average after twenty seasons from 1982 to 2001 was .338. Along the way, he compiled 3,141 hits. Raines was never considered the hitter that Gwynn was. Raines finished his 21 year career from 1981 to 2001 (I am not counting two "cup of coffee" seasons) with a career batting average of .294. And Raines compiled 2,605 hits.

Most fans would look at those two careers and feel that Gwynn was a much better player than Raines. After all, Gwynn compiled 536 more career hits and had a batting average that was 44 points higher. But when you dig much deeper, the two players were worth about the same during their parallel careers.

Now you might jump to conclusions that I am including base running and fielding into this mix. And, yeah, if you want to look at the total valuation, Raines finished with an fWAR of 66.4 and Gwynn finished with an fWAR of 65. The two were so close (overall) that it is a wash. But I am not even talking about those overall evaluations. I am talking about just the offensive worth that does not include base running or fielding.

Raines compares with Gwynn offensively as well. Gwynn finished with a career wOBA of .370. Raines finished slightly behind him at .361. But that is not the full story. If we look at batting runs for their respective careers, Gwynn finished with 401.5 batting runs according to Fangraphs. That same site assigns Raines with 408.1.

Here is the statistic I really love. It is called Runs Created and was developed by Bill James and others and it "estimates a player’s total contributions to a team’s runs total." According to the career leaders in this statistic, both are exactly tied for 57th Place all time with 1,636 runs created!

In wOBA, Gwynn is slightly higher. In batting runs, Raines is slightly higher. In runs created, they are tied exactly. Gwynn's higher batting average means nothing to the equation. In this comparison, the batting average is moot. The two players are virtually tied when it comes to offensive worth.

Let's look at 2013 for a more recent example. Let's compare Torii Hunter and Josh Donaldson. Hunter had 652 plate appearances and Donaldson had 668. Hunter batted .304 and Donaldson, .301. The two batting averages are virtually identical. But the offensive worth of their seasons were anything but.

Donaldson's wOBA was .384. His batting runs according to Fangraphs.com were 37.3. His adjusted batting runs according to B-R were 40.64. Hunter's wOBA was .346. His batting runs were 12.5 and his adjusted batting runs were 10.67. Donaldson's season was a little better than three times greater offensively than Hunter which makes their batting averages the least important statistic when rating their offensive seasons.

And just for fun, I leave you with the "emptiest" .300 hitters since 1990:

Rk	Player	RC	BA	OPS+	PA	BtRuns ▴	Year
1	Juan Pierre	101	0.327	89	683	-11.41	2001
2	Placido Polanco	70	0.307	88	610	-11.09	2001
3	Doug Glanville	60	0.300	88	510	-9.63	1997
4	Mike Caruso	68	0.306	90	555	-9.31	1998
5	Garret Anderson	80	0.303	92	662	-8.52	1997
6	Mark Grudzielanek	91	0.306	93	696	-8.16	1996
7	Tony Womack	80	0.307	91	606	-6.77	2004
8	A.J. Pierzynski	65	0.300	93	535	-6.56	2009
9	Gregg Jefferies	72	0.301	93	592	-6.51	1998
10	Joe Randa	89	0.304	94	665	-6.1	2000
11	Jordan Pacheco	66	0.309	94	505	-6.06	2012
12	Hal Morris	61	0.309	90	516	-5.95	1998
13	Darryl Hamilton	83	0.315	93	568	-5.46	1999
14	Ryan Theriot	81	0.307	93	661	-4.78	2008
15	Juan Pierre	97	0.305	94	747	-4.77	2003
16	Luis Castillo	77	0.301	94	615	-3.98	2007
17	Orlando Cabrera	91	0.301	95	701	-3.71	2007
18	Jamey Carroll	70	0.300	94	534	-3.41	2006

Are the Angels Smart or Stupid?

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California on the West Coast of the United States of America sure are taking a beating these days. Even one of their own players, Torii Hunter, is upset because the Angels whiffed on free agents Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, etc. It is doubtful that they will be in the final bidding for Cliff Lee. That leaves Adrian Beltre as the last big ticket free agent available to them. But do the Angels deserve the pile driving they are taking?

According to this writer's scorecard, Jayson Werth was overpaid, Carl Crawford was overpaid, Cliff Lee will be overpaid and Beltre is still an unknown as to what he is asking. Is a team stupid for turning away from making foolish contracts for players that will not be worth their value at the end of the terms of their deals? There's a strong indication against this being stupid but instead it could be wise. This Fan can guarantee you that Cliff Lee may have three years of effective pitching left in him. Carl Crawford may be this good for another three or four years. Werth has been improving steadily and could have four good years in him. Can you blame the Angels for blinking when all that cost will probably be eaten at the back end of those contracts?

On the other hand, the Angels as their roster now stands is full of holes. They don't have a DH, a third baseman or a bullpen. The DH (and probably the bullpen) is easily remedied as there are still a bunch of slow footed, stone gloved sluggers out there. Bullpen arms flood the market. Beltre would be perfect for third base for the Angels. So those situations are fixable. But the Angels have little if any value to trade and their system isn't exactly teaming with prospects. Since they haven't exactly built a system capable of feeding them young talent, the only way they can quickly improve to stay up with the Rangers is to buy the talent. At this point, that isn't going so well.

Others have insisted that the Angels are poor negotiators and are inflexible in their terms. Is that true? Is it a crime to attach a value at a player they covet and stick by that value? It's not like the Red Sox just out bid the Angels by a few measly dollars. The Red Sox out bid the Angels by almost $30 million! Which team is the stupid one here? History will have to give us the answer. But for now, this Fan can't blame the Angels for picking a timeline and a price tag that makes sense based on a player's value and projected value. If you break down their offer to Crawford, it's awfully close to Baseball Prospectus projections for how much Crawford will be worth over the next six years. The Red Sox, on the other hand, overpaid those projections by nearly $15 million and with the extra year guaranteed the back end of the deal to be an extreme risk. If the Angels whiffed on free agents and the difference between the prices offered was minimal, then, yeah, you have to question their tactics. But that is not the case here. The Torii Hunter contract is a very wise and fair contract for what Hunter has given them.

Many point to the Mo Vaughn contract as the reason the Angels are gun shy about long-term megadeals. But gosh, wouldn't you be? After averaging over five wins above replacement the previous five years for Boston, the Angels signed the splashy Vaughn for huge dollars and Vaughn responded with two years of 1.5 and 1.0 WAR for the Angels. They finally unloaded him off to the Mets for Kevin Appier and ate a bunch of the contract. That would sour a lot of people. If you put your finger in a light socket and get zapped, you're not going to do it again.

But it's not like they are nickel and diming people either. Hunter got a nice deal and offering Crawford six years and $105 million isn't exactly chump change. In the end, this Fan has to give the Angels props for being fiscally intelligent in not overpaying talent. That said, the result might be another year or two of being the second best team in the AL West. But winning isn't everything if it means offering stupid contracts. Just ask the Yankees or Rangers  four years from now when Cliff Lee is just another league average pitcher.