The Flagrant Fan's Baseball Off Season Survival Guide

The World Series is over and the Washington Nationals are the surprise toast of the baseball world (unless you love political-mongering). Spring Training is months away, and if you are like me, you only have a secondary interest in the NFL and non-interest in the other sports. How do we survive this time without baseball? And while we are surviving, how do we filter through all the rumors and noise of the off season?  Well, I've been doing this a long time and here's my survival guide to help you through.

Missing Baseball

The worst thing about this time of year is missing the games themselves. Let's face it, during the season, the beauty of baseball is its constant presence. Just about every day, there is a game to watch, to think about, to pour over the box score and watch the highlights. Suddenly, the season ends and we are left with the violence and politics of the NFL and the "load management" of the new NBA. Or you have hockey. Meh. That's just me. If you like all those things, I encourage you to enjoy yourself. But this article is not really about you.

If you are a baseball lifer and baseball is your favorite sport (or only sport), then this time of year is a drag. Here are some tips:

• Go back on MLB.com and re-watch old games. It is not the same, but it helps.
• Spend your free time pouring over baseball-reference.com. Here you have every box score since time began. What endless fun!
• Play Strat-O-Matic baseball or join a league. I just joined one and I am looking forward to it.
• Learn your favorite teams' prospects. Who had good years, who got bumped up several levels. Dream about their potential and future.

These are just a few tips of learning to cope without baseball every day.

Curbing Expectations

Let's face it, every fan wants to know what their team is going to do over the winter to improve your team. You want that big free agent or that sensational trade that will fill you with excitement for the coming season. Slow your heart rate down. Some moves do not seem that much and turn out to be and the odds of your team getting the biggest studs on the market are slight.

I will mention two or three players that were greeted by ho-hums by fans and the media when the deals happened: DJ LeMahieu, Howie Kendrick and Jake Odorizzi. Now imagine their teams without them this past season? Front offices are often filled with talented evaluators who, surprisingly, know what they are doing. Think about Yankee fans last off season who said, "DJ LeMahieu? Who? Where is he going to play?"

Often, a move that fans are very excited about fizzles under the glare of reality. Giancarlo Stanton, David Price and Andrew Miller come to mind.

And what about those huge free agents on the market? The reality is that your favorite team has a one in thirty shot of landing a Gerrit Cole. Well, if you eliminate the historically cheap teams like the Royals, the Rays and some others, then perhaps the odds are more like one in twenty. The thing is, one team's fan base is going to be very excited and two-dozen others are going to be disappointed. My way of coping is to manage my expectations and not get excited unless there is an actual signing and then not getting too concerned about my team having to go different routes.

Do NOT Listen To Rumors!

Since we miss baseball, our minds have to fixate on something and so we buy into the rumor mill and every single article and tweet that speculates about who is going where. The fact is, we will not know until we know....yanno?

There is an entire site devoted to MLB rumors. You know who they are. Every sports site in the world right now is featuring their predictions and speculations of who is going where. Do not get sucked into this stuff. It is meaningless. They do not know as much as you and I do not know. Heck, we still get surprised when a team signs a manager we never expected. Things will play out when they play out. This is one time when you want to be a reactionary and not a speculator.

There is one prominent baseball journalist who is suspected of supposedly being fed false information by Scott Boras. Not only are those rumors wrong, but they are intentionally wrong whether or not this baseball hack is aware he is being used or not. To be sure, he is probably not the only one. Misinformation and misdirection is a part of the scheme of agents. What better way to drive up prices for their clients than creating a competitive climate (whether it exists or not)?

Baseball sites need one thing and they need them desperately: clicks! Every site needs clicks to either make money or to be relevant. Me, I've given up trying that gig. I am like John Lennon watching the wheel spin round and round. These sites need clicks even more now because there is no on-the-field news they can report.

And so, those clicks are speculation, rumors, predictions and all this supposedly knowledgeable reporting that is based on air. Again, no one knows and no one will know until a free agent signs with his new team. And even then, when a new round of speculation begins on what the signing means, do not get sucked in and manage those expectations.

The bottom line here is that surviving these three excruciating months without baseball is to get your buzzes where you can by looking at stuff that has already happened, manage expectations and shield yourself from the rumor mill. Before you know it, we will know who is going to play for our teams and rosters will show up in Florida and Arizona again to start the cycle all over in gloriously new circumstances. If you need a hug, let me know.

On Trading Miguel Andujar

Rumors rule the off season and as the market heats up, they are swirling in gusty winds. Of course, rumors are just rumors until they are not. But they do get clicks don't they? The latest gust has the Yankees, Mets and Marlins involved in a three-team swap as the Mets desperately want to get J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins and the Yankees would love get a big-time pitcher and Derek Jeter wants a Major League player. The name swirling for the Yankees is Miguel Andujar.  Another piece stated that the Yankees were willing to listen to talks concerning Andujar.

Granted, we are just talking rumors here. And granted, the Yankees need pitching as we have seen time and time again that pitching wins the post season. But if there is any kernel of truth to these rumors, why Miguel Andujar? Is it his defense? Or that he does not walk enough? Or is the truth closer to the fact that the Yankees really want to sign Manny Machado? Or is it all three?

If the Yankees were to trade Andujar, they better have Machado all but locked up because Miguel Andujar was the rock of the Yankees' offense in 2018. He was consistently a presence in the lineup from when he arrived to when the season ended. He did flop in the playoffs, but so did a lot of Yankees. As good as Andujar was in the first half of the season, he was better in the second. There is no way the Yankees would have won a hundred games without him.

There is also a pretty good comparable to Miguel Andujar. His name is Robinson Cano. Remember him? He is a Met now. But Robinson Cano had stellar years with the Yankees. Yes, he was a bit of Machado without the mean streak, but he was really, really good.

Cano started a year younger than Andujar. But let's compare their first full season in the big leagues:

• OPS - Andujar: .855, Cano: .778
• OPS+ - Andujar: 126, Cano: .106
• rWAR - Andujar: 2.2, Cano: 0.8
• dWAR - Andujar: -2.2, Cano: -1.8

Maybe those comparisons are not fair to Cano because he was a year younger. Cano blossomed in his second year. Let's compare Andujar's first year to Cano's second:

• OPS - Andujar: .855, Cano: .890
• OPS+ - Andujar: 126, Cano: 126
• rWAR - Andujar: 2.2, Cano: 3.2
• dWAR - Andujar: -2.2, Cano: -0.1

At least they are in the ballpark. But again, that was Cano's second full season. Andujar is faulted for his swing at everything approach. He walked only 28 times. Cano only walked 18 times in both his first and second seasons. Cano was able to build his walk rate to the 50-60 range mid-career. There is no reason to think that Andujar could not do the same.

Let's talk about Miguel Andujar's defense. It would be foolish to think that Miguel Andujar could become as good a defender as Robinson Cano became. Cano has better instincts and range. But, by all means, Andujar could get much better than he was in 2018. For one, make the guy play on the front of the dirt so that he does not lose runners being so deep. Work with him on not backpedaling on everything. If he could approach league average, he would be a superstar for years to come.

As good as Robinson Cano has been as an offensive player, Andujar can be better. He was a better hitter in the minors and he started with a bang in his rookie season. He seems like a Roberto Clemente-type offensive talent with more power. Other than his low walk total, there is nothing not to like about him offensively. He is going to be a batting star in the Majors for a long while. That's a hunch, of course and time will tell.

There is another strange thing about this rumor: Why would the Mets trade one of the team's star pitchers if pitching and Realmuto is the team's only shot of post season glory? It does not seem to make sense for them to do so.

Perhaps serving Andujar up for a trade will help the Yankees in the near future. But consider that Chase Headley, a veteran, only had a higher rWAR once while with the Yankees than Andujar's 2.2 tally. And that 2.2 tally was the exact same as the 2012 Alex Rodriguez who cost a heck of a lot more money. The bottom line is that losing Miguel Andujar will hurt and we will see him in the All Star game for years to come...playing for somebody else.

MLB Off Season Is A Lot Like Waiting For Christmas

For those of us who celebrate Christmas (and no judgments if you do not), there is this anticipation about what kind of gifts (if any) will be ours for the big day. On the one hand, you hope that you will get at least something and on the other, you hope if you do that it will be something you really want and need. Fans of baseball teams have this same collective feeling during the off season where rumors abound but only time will tell what actually comes about.

The first part of the equation is already answered for New York Yankee fans. The trade for James Paxton was a nice little present under the tree. But it is like getting some sort of electronic gizmo. Will it work as advertised? Past deals involving Sonny Gray and A.J. Burnett put the fear of hoping for too much from this new gift.

But will that be all that the Yankee fans get? The team lost two big bullpen pieces. They still don't have a real first baseman. Second base will need a decent player until Didi Gregorius comes back--that is, if Gleyber Torres slides over to short instead of some terrible long-term deal given to a dirty, self-absorbed free agent signing that will be Gary Sheffield 2.0. Forgive the non-analytical belief that talent alone is not enough to make a team better.

Will there be any big, gaudy presents under the tree? Will the Yankees be able to resist Bryce Harper? Yes, Yankee Stadium was made for him. Yes, his on-base ability is tempting. But where will he play? Perhaps that is too good a gift to question like Giancarlo Stanton was and you figure out later where it fits on the shelf. And which Bryce Harper is the real one? The MVP one or the one with a low batting average, big-time strikeouts and terrible defense?

By the way, you heard it here first: 2018 was an adjustment year for Stanton. He will be huge in 2019. Very huge.

Will there be any big presents? Perhaps a big-name starter? At what price? Can that big-name pitcher come up big in the post season? Can he beat the Red Sox in a big game? With a long-term deal, will he become an albatross?

Will a fairly deep pool of talented relief pitchers be tapped? Should David Robertson come back home? Is Andrew Miller past his best pitching? Both he and Robertson are the same age and a bit of a gamble with a multi-year deal.

And what would be good stocking-stuffers? Luis Cessa going somewhere else would be one. What addition / subtraction deals would make the team better enough to add a win or two over a season? A nice return for a traded Sonny Gray would be great. Gray and Greg Bird for Eric Hosmer and cash might be a nice thing for the stocking.

Like Christmas celebrants everywhere, this off season is much like the anticipation and tension of what will be under the tree on the big day. Will there be disappointment or will there be immediate appreciation? And if it is the latter, will it actually work when taken out of the box to play? Sometimes the anticipation is hard on the stomach.