What's With the Ubaldo Questions?

Two questions keep coming back to this writer concerning Ubaldo Jimenez, the pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. The first is: Why do the Rockies dangle him as trade bait? And secondly: Why do bloggers question Ubaldo's stuff? Here is just one example of doubt concerning the pitcher. Buster Olney is another that has expressed others' concern for Jimenez and his stuff this season. Perhaps the questions about the health of Ubaldo Jimenez are a direct result of the Rockies wanting to trade him in the first place. They must know something everybody else doesn't. But heck, any team that wants to deal for the pitcher will look at the medicals, right? So what gives?

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of those cornerstone pitchers for a pitching staff. He's clearly the best pitcher on the Rockies. Plus, he's just the kind of pitcher you need in the thin air of Coors Field. Power is the way to go in a park that represses movement. And more and more, analysts focus on only the things a pitcher can control and not so much the win-loss record and at times, even the ERA. The things a pitcher can control are considered strikeouts, walks and homers. Despite the 6-9 record and an ERA of 4.20--numbers that seem pedestrian--Ubaldo Jimenez is very similar this year to the Ubaldo Jimenez of previous years. Here are the numbers for the last four years broken down by category:

• Strikeouts per nine:  2008 - 7.79, 2009 - 8.17, 2010 - 8.69 and 2011 - 8.56
• Walks per nine: 2008 - 4.67, 2009 - 3.51, 2010 - 3.74 and 2011 - 3.47
• Homers per nine: 2008 - 0.50, 2009 - 0.54, 2010 - 0.41 and 2011 - 0.74

Those numbers hardly look like a pitcher that is struggling with his stuff. Oh, the homers per nine is up slightly, but that's still a good number.

To be totally fair and forthcoming, there are a few numbers that cause a bit of concern. First, his line drive percentage is up fairly significantly. After averaging a line drive percentage of 18.1 percent for his career, that number is up to 20.8 percent. And secondly, his rate of infield pop ups is way down from his past two years when he induced an inordinate amount of those weak outs. Fangraphs rates pitches and gives them a value of runs above average. Ubaldo's score for his fastball and slider are way down from previous years. So that's something. His swinging strike percentage is also down from his career average of 9.0 to 7.7 percent. Is that the evidence we are talking about?

It's been said that Ubaldo's velocity is down. Is it? Ubaldo's career four-seam fastball has been 95.4 MPH. This year, he is averaging 93.9. So yeah, that's down. His slider is down three miles per hour. His two-seam fastball is down from last year's 96.3 MPH to this year's 94 MPH. But two years ago and the year before that, this pitch was in the 91.5 MPH range. In his last two games, he's been hovering in the high 93 to low 94 range on both his fastballs. So perhaps there are small reasons for concern in those numbers. His fastball is topping out around where he used to average.

But this writer keeps coming back to the fact that his K/9 and FIP (and xFIP) are consistent with his performance historically. ZIPs projects that Jimenez will go 6-2 with a 3.21 ERA in the rest of his 11 starts (he pitches today). Why wouldn't anyone want that kind of performance? Pitching is a premium in Colorado. It always has been. For the first time in their history, they have an ace. Ubaldo Jimenez is an ace. He is the kind of pitcher to build a staff around. He isn't the kind of pitcher to let go to be an ace somewhere else.

There have been whispers that the Rockies weren't happy with the condition he came to camp in or the fact that he made a European trip before Spring Training. That was compounded by missing his first couple of starts due to non-arm related muscle issues. Once Ubaldo Jimenez did start pitching, it wasn't pretty. His start mirrored the Rockies season that has been disappointing. It seems that trading Ubaldo Jimenez would seriously weaken the overall pitching staff. So why do it? He'll be coming into big money soon, so that's probably a factor. His value will never be higher so perhaps the highest score of prospects could come back to the Rockies. But this writer just can't see trading away the anchor of your pitching staff.

Today's rumors are that the Red Sox are the hungriest for him. That would be simply unfair if that happened. As if they aren't stacked enough! But if they did get him, they would be that much better. Because this guy is a very good pitcher.

It makes some sense for there to be some concern about Ubaldo's velocity, swinging strike percentage and pop up percentage. But despite all those things, his results in the things he can control are pretty much the same as always. This Fan can't get why the Rockies would even think about trading him. But this Fan can also understand why teams would salivate at the possibility.

Ubaldo the Magnificent

When talking about the top pitchers in the majors, Ubaldo Jiminez is not always in the conversation. We rightly here about Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Felix Hernandez gets a lot of mentions. Clayton Kershaw gets a justifiable amount of mention as a good young pitcher. C. C. Sabathia is mentioned. Jon Lester and his teammate, Buchholz are usually mentioned. Verlander is usually in the mix. But Jiminez was magnificent last year and the strange thing is, the only time this writer heard him mentioned was how lucky his fast start was last year.

Ubaldo Jiminez is about as exciting a pitcher as there is in baseball. He's only going to be 27 in 2011 and he's won 34 games in the last two years. He "only" won 19 games last year after starting the season 15-1 by the All Star Game. And yes, the Rockies scored a bunch of runs in those early 15 wins. In his first 18 starts that led to that impressive record, the Rockies scored 5.3 runs a game when Ubaldo pitched.  But most of us know by now that wins and losses aren't always in the pitcher's control.  Yes, the Rockies scored 5.3 runs per game in his first 18 starts leading to 15 wins. But Ubaldo's ERA at that point was 2.20. It's not like he was wheezing into those wins. And how come after the All Star Game, few people mentioned the bad luck he received from his offense?

Before the All Star break, Jiminez had two no-decisions. After the break, there were four. Jiminez did struggle in July and parts of August. But starting August 21, he lost three straight decisions and in those three games, his team scored a combined four runs. The game after that, he won in a laugher. Then he got a no-decision in a 2-1 Rockies win. On September 17, he won his nineteenth game despite not being sharp. He pitched three more times and his team totally tanked on the offensive department.

Finishing with nineteen wins after having fifteen wins at the All Star Game left the impression that his second half was a disappointment. He did struggle in July, but his ERA in August was 2.83 and it was 3.57 in September. Those aren't numbers to sneeze at. The point is that you have to look at his season as a whole and the positive trend that his numbers have shown in the past three years. You also have to look at his record in the context that he pitched half of his games at Coors Field and managed to allow opposing batters there a .661 OPS the entire season in that atmosphere. To show how good Jiminez would be just about anywhere else, his OPS against on the road was .564!

Baseball-reference.com and Fangraphs calculate wins above replacement differently. If you go by B-R's way of that calculation, Ubaldo Jiminez had the highest WAR of any pitcher in the National League last year, yes, even higher than Roy Halladay and much higher than Adam Wainwright. Fangraphs gives him a slightly lower WAR but it was still high enough to rank in a tie for third in the entire majors. If you go by another statistic called win probability added or WPA, Jiminez was second in the majors behind Halladay.

Ubaldo Jiminez is known for his blazing fastball. He was once again near the top of the league in the average speed of that pitch in the National League. But Jiminez throws four plus pitches. His fastball was 30 runs above average last year, but his change up was slightly over nine and his curve and his slider were also above average. He had his best season getting batters to chase pitches out of the strike zone and it's very tough to square the bat on his pitches. His 16.2 percent line drive percentage against is very impressive.

Whenever a pitcher has as good a year as Jiminez, you want to look at more than just the 2.88 ERA. How did his pitching look in context? One of the ways you do that is to look at his fielding independent pitching or FIP. This statistic takes out factors the pitcher can't control and gives a truer picture of how well a pitcher pitched. Jiminez fared very well in FIP with a final number of 3.10

So what can we expect from Ubaldo the Magnificent in 2011? Heck, it's like anything else. Anything can happen once the real games start. But if you go by his trends, you'd have to think he'll have another outstanding season. In 2010, his hits per nine innings went down for the third straight year. His strikeouts per nine increased for the second year in a row. His ERA+ has increased two years in a row. And he is excellent at keeping the ball in the park--another amazing feat for a guy who starts half his games in Colorado.

Baseball Prospectus predicts Ubaldo Jiminez will finish 17-12 with an ERA of 4.00. While the win total sounds about right these days for one of the top pitchers in the league, the Fan is definitely under on the ERA. As good as 2010 was, we probably still haven't seen how good Ubaldo Jiminez can be.

Really Bummed About Ubaldo Jiminez

You Rockies had one last chance to get Ubaldo Jiminez his 20th victory. All you had to do was score a run. That's it. Just a run. But you couldn't even do that. Why wasn't CarGo in the line up? Yeah, he is banged up, but his is Ubaldo. He's pitched his heart out all season. Yeah, he has nineteen wins. He finished with an impressive record. But we are a fandom of milestones. We love 20-win pitchers. Jiminez had fifteen wins by the All Star break. He was the only thing keeping your faint hopes alive when you got off to your typical crappy start this season. But when he needed you, you let him down.

Geez, Louise, Rockies. You left eleven men on base. You had your chances. The Cardinals even made two errors to help you. You couldn't score a single run off a pitcher with an ERA over 6. Ubaldo was magnificent. He pitched eight innings, giving up only three hits and two walks. He struck out ten. What more could you ask for? His performance couldn't get you inspired enough to go get him a run or two? How disappointing. But what else is new, right?

This is what you scored for him in his last eight losses and no decisions: 2, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 1, 0. That's twelve runs in those eight games. 1.33 runs per game. Nice. Jiminez could have won 24 or 25 games with just four or five of those starts having some run support. It's a crying shame and Jiminez deserved better.

Look, you made a good run in September. You almost got back to the top. But you fell apart and along with falling apart, you let one of the great pitching performances of the season look like less than it was. It's disappointing and this Fan is really bummed.

The Case Against CarGo for MVP

Carlos Gonzalez is having a wonderful season. He is a true triple crown threat (he won't make it in RBIs unless he goes on a bender) and will probably win the batting title. His play of late as the Rockies make another September run has propelled him to MVP conversations. While his numbers warrant attention, the argument for MVP doesn't add up. Here are a few reasons why:

1. CarGo isn't the most valuable person on his own team. That would be Ubaldo Jiminez, who has CarGo in WAR by at least two points. Tulowitzki has almost as high a WAR with far fewer at bats and games played.

2. You just can't ignore the splits. CarGo has a 1.205 OPS at home versus .760 on the road. He has 25 homers at home and 7 on the road. He has 74 ribbies at home and 34 on the road. He has 19 doubles at home and 14 on the road. It may seem unfair, but you have to take offensive production in Colorado with some kind of grain of salt.

3. He's not great in the field. Both B-R and Fangraphs have Carlos Gonzalez in the negative numbers for fielding proficiency. And as a right fielder, he only has two assists all season.

This is no knock on Gonzalez. He's had a great season and is a bit part of the Rockies successful run at the playoffs. He's just not the most valuable player on his team never mind the league.

Ubaldo Denied Again - Plus An Unexpected Sight

Ubaldo Jiminez seemed a lock to win twenty games this season. He had fifteen wins by July 5. He was a sensation. Then Jiminez had a little rough patch and got cuffed around for a few games. But in August and September, he's been back to brilliant. Except he isn't winning.

The Rockies scored a pile of runs during Ubaldo's early run but it has dried up. We are talking about a team that has averaged 4.68 runs per game since the first of August. In August and September, Jiminez has lost four games where the Rockies scored a total of four runs. On August 15, he pitched eight innings and gave up three runs and struck out ten. But he left with the score tied and didn't get a decision though the Rockies won the game. And then there was Saturday.

Jiminez again was terrific against Arizona. He pitched six innings and struck out eight while giving up only one run. He left with the score tied 1-1 for a pinch hitter. He could have pitched longer but the National League is the quaint league and the pitchers have to hit. So that's another no decision. The tally then is four losses receiving only four runs of offensive support and two no-decisions where he gave up four runs in 14 innings with a team that has been scoring runs in bunches Bummer.

Anyway, while the Fan was looking at this box score to see how Jiminez fared, a name caught the Fan's eye in Arizona's pitching line. The name said, "Hampton." Hampton? The Fan clicked on the link for Hampton's name and sure enough, it was Mike Hampton, the once great pitcher for the Astros who got the big contract and then got injured endlessly. When did he start pitching for Arizona? Why hasn't that been a story?

It appears that Hampton has become a LOOGY. He's made two appearances covering 1.2 innings and he hasn't given up a run. Neat. Who knew!? Apparently Hampton signed as a free agent with the Diamonbacks on August 21. That's a pretty cool piece of news that completely slipped the Fan's notice.

Ubaldo Jiminez is Unbelievable

Watched most of the Giants - Rockies game and it pitted Cy Young award winner Lincecum against the league's best pitcher this season, Ubaldo Jiminez. It was really the first time the Fan had watched the guy pitch and he is amazing. Even the couple of times he got in trouble, the ultimate result never seemed to be in doubt. He pitched a complete game shutout to lower is ERA to 0.78.

The game was watched on MLB.TV (via the computer) and featured the regular Giants' television announcers. Remember, these guys have watched Lincecum for a few years now and the announcers said over and over, "This guy has the best stuff in the league by far." That was their constant theme throughout. What does that tell you about how good this guy is?

What is amazing is that he has this 96 to 99 MPH fastball that he throws for the entire game. But it isn't just a fast pitch like Farnsworth, who used to throw that hard but it was always perfectly straight. Ubaldo throws his and it darts from left to right, not a few inches but a foot or more. It's and incredible fastball. He also throws a split at 90 MPH and a curve that just buckles the batter. And he throws them all for strikes.

The only improvement he could make is when he gets two quick strikes on a guy. He tends to get a little cute and tries to make a perfect pitch. This just adds up his pitch count and it's unnecessary because the batter can't hit whatever the throws up there and he should just blow them away. But that's hardly a bad thing if it's his only problem.

The scary part is that he's just 26. He isn't flamboyant. He's not demonstrative. He pitches like he's been there forever. This is his third year in the big leagues and each year, his splits have improved. He's just learning still and at 10-1, he could even be better than this.

Watching him pitch was a wonderful treat on Memorial Day and this Fan just might have to watch him every time he pitches the rest of the year.