Yankees Look In Mirror At Twins

The Tampa Bay Rays already blew up my playoff bracket before it had much of a start. No longer needing to worry about my picks, I can concentrate on this ALDS between the Yankees and the Twins. With a five-game series, all conventional wisdom is blown away and the outcome is nearly impossible to predict. What can easily be said is that the Yankees and the Twins are so similar in structure that they could be the same image in a mirror.

Both teams have tremendous power as the Twins broke the season home run record this year and the Yankees finished one behind. The loss of the record (which really doesn't matter except for bragging rights) is another example of how the Yankees' last week of the season was atrocious. The Twins, on the other hand, finished super strong and barely ran out of time to catch up to the Yankees' win-loss record.

Both teams have very good managers. All Aaron Boone has done is win a hundred games in both of his seasons. Rocco Baldelli took the Twins to a hundred wins in his first season. One of them, probably Baldelli, will get Manager Of The Year. There is no advantage to be had here. The Yankees had a better record against teams over .500 and won the season series against the Twins and have historically beat the Twins in post season play. But all of those facts are meaningless heading into this series.

The pitching seems about as even as the offense. The Twins have had some bright spots in their rotation but no "stopper." The same can be said for the Yankees unless either James Paxton or Luis Severino are really on their games.

Boone recently announced that the rotation for the Yankees will start with Paxton, then Masahiro Tanaka at home in Game 2, and then Severino in Game 3 in Minneapolis. I am happy with that rotation and also happy (though sad) that CC Sabathia will not make the playoff roster (at least in this round). Tanaka is much better at home and Severino will give the Twins a new wrinkle they haven't seen in their home ballpark. In a short series, will the Yankees want to mess around with an "Opener" or a JA Happ in Game 4? Perhaps there will be enough days off for Paxton to pitch the second time.

One would immediately think that the Yankees have a big edge in the bullpen. I do not see it that way when it comes to the Twins. Their top four guys had great seasons with high strikeout rates and they walk less batters than their Yankee counterparts. For the Yankees to win, they need to win early.

Again, the offenses for both teams are a wash. The Yankees look like they will have the most bashable lineup of the season ready for the Twins with Edwin Encarnacion ready to play. They need him as he can be a game changer. The Twins' only question is whether Max Kepler is healthy and it looks like he will be.

I believe that one edge the Yankees have is defense. The Twins made the second most errors in the American League and all of their infield guys are in negative runs statistics. They lose a lot on defense with Byron Buxton out as it leaves the Twins without a true center fielder. The Twins do not throw out stolen base attempts on par with league average. The Yankees do.

The Twins were a much better team on the road this season than they were at home. That somewhat negates the home field advantage the Yankees hold. So really, there is no clear cut favorite in this series. Both teams are so similar and so close that it will come down to the bounce of the ball and which team makes the best plays and can do the best job pitching in the series.

What would you do with the Yankees' lineup? I have played a few scenarios in my head and like Sanchez as the DH with Romine behind the plate. But Romine would be a weaker play in the lineup.
I guess I would go something like this:

1. D.J. LeMaheau 1B, 
2. Aaron Judge - RF
3. Edwin Encarnacion - DH
4. Gleyber Torres - 2B
5. Giancarlo Stanton - LF
6. Gary Sanchez - C
7. Brett Gardner - CF
8. Gio Urshela - 3B
9. Didi Gregorius - SS

I do think that the Twins were the best possible outcome for a first series match-up for the Yankees. The Astros are going to be tough no matter what. I was really afraid the Yankees facing Oakland and am less so of Tampa Bay. All that said, playing the Twins is no walk in the park. If the Yankees do not pitch well, this series will end up poorly.

Toying With The Yankees Playoff Roster

The New York Yankees have just a handful of games remaining before the team starts its Post Season scramble. There are no easy roads as any series poses strong obstacles to overcome for the Yankees to grab the top prize. The interesting aspect of that coming time is the makeup of the 25-man roster the Yankees need to shape heading into the team's run for the glory. The team has a plethora of decisions to make and most are not as easy as they sound.

Setting up the pitching staff seems to be the most important aspect of this exercise, though, certainly not the only important piece. For a deep Post Season run, pitching, offense and defense are all critical. Let's look at the pitching decisions the Yankees need to make and then we'll look at some of the different scenarios and how the Yankees might attack them.

First, the bullpen no brainers (5):

• Adam Ottavino
• Aroldis Chapman
• Zack Britton
• Tommy Kahnle
• Chad Green

Now, we need to add three more.

• Luis Severino
• Dellin Betances
• Jonathan Loaisiga

I am going here with a "best case" scenario. It is hopeful that the first two can contribute strongly and the playoffs require power pitching. Loaisiga looked great against Boston throwing 98 mph gas.

That leaves out Nestor Cortes Jr. Luis Cessa and Cory Gearrin. If either Severino or Betances cannot answer the bell, then add Cessa.

If all eight can be ready, you have an unbelievable bullpen of eight strong pitchers.

The Starters (4):
James Paxton
Masahiro Tanaka
Domingo German
JA Happ

That leaves out CC Sabathia. While that sucks emotionally, it just feels like the guy is done. Of course, if Sabathia was to pitch and had a great game, the emotional factor could be huge. But what are the odds of that happening? Happ has one strong start in his favor and a decent history. It is not a great choice, but Happ, at least, is healthy.

With only four starters, I can see an "Opener" scenario with Severino and perhaps you do add Cessa to give the team thirteen pitchers.

If the Yankees win home field advantage, then Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German need to start at home. If the Yankees do not have home field advantage (Astros), then Paxton needs to lead off the series because he has the pure "stuff" to succeed on the road.

Happ would get the fourth game and then go with the Opener scenario for Game Five and back to the beginning for Game Six and Seven (if needed).

Okay, we more or less have our thirteen pitchers. Now we need twelve position players. Here is where it gets dicey. If Giancarlo Stanton can get a few games in, then you almost are forced to include him. I am glad I am writing this after seeing Mike Tauchman's injury (which sucks). I rule out Aaron Hicks completely. See you next year, Aaron.

If you include Stanton, then you've clogged up the DH because do you really want Stanton in left? Perhaps it might help to build the known commodities and their positions to see what we have remaining:

• Third Base - DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela
• Shortstop - Didi Gregorius
• Second Base - Gleyber Torres
• Catcher - Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine
• Right Field - Aaron Judge
• Center Field - Brett Gardner

There are eight of your twelve. In my mind, you have to have Edwin Encarnacion. He either plays first or splits time at DH. That's nine. There are only three spots left.

Losing Mike Tauchman Sunday night to a calf injury changes things. I definitely would have penciled him in to start in Left. He, along with Judge and Gardner gave the Yankees superior outfield defense and Tauchman brought enough to the plate to keep him out there. I am pessimistic about this injury. According to Bryan Hoch, Tauchman had already been receiving treatment for his calf before this injury. His season may be done.

I still do not want Stanton in Left. Does that mean the Yankees go with Cameron Maybin? What other choice is there? Clint Frazier? That's a thought, but no. So Maybin is your tenth guy. He's also a good dugout guy and brings that dynamic. We only have two spots left. We have not settled first base yet, which seems strange.

Luke Voit has not been very productive lately. He has only played 24 games since the halfway point of the season and his OPS in those 24 games is only .741 with a paltry .373 slugging percentage. In my mind, he has forgotten what led to his success last year which was driving the ball the opposite way on outside pitches. His pull percentage is up a full seven percentage points this year. His hard contact rate has tumbled nine percentage points from last year. He has hit five homers since the end of May. It is really tough, but I would leave him off the Post Season roster.

But we have two spots! Here is probably a surprise. But I would add Tyler Wade. He can backup every position. And if you need a guy to run the bases for some of the big, slumbering runners on the team, you call on Wade. This gives you five guys on the infield. You start Encarnacion at first and replace him in the late innings with DJLM. You start DJLM at third and when he goes to first, you slide Urshela in there.

We now have three guys on the bench: Urshela, Wade and Romine. That pretty much matches what the Yankees have gone with all season. You can use the last spot for a pitcher. That could be either Cody Guerrin or CC Sabathia. Guerrin can mop up lopsided games and perhaps CC would be an opener and pitch three innings to start a game before bringing in Severino or Loaisiga. Okay, let it be Sabathia.

To sum this all up, let's look at a depth chart:

• Left Field - Maybin, Stanton with Wade if needed
• Center Field - Gardner, Maybin
• Right Field - Judge
• First base, Edwin Encarnacion, DJLM
• Second Base - Gleyber Torres, DJLM, Wade
• Shortstop - Gregorius, Torres, Wade
• Third base - DJLM, Urshela
• Catcher - Sanchez, Romine
• DH - Stanton, Encarnacion, Sanchez (Sanchez needs to bat every game).

Pitching (relief)
Ottavino, Britton, Kahnle, Chapman, Green, Betances, Loaisiga

Pitchers (starters)
James Paxton, Tanaka, German, Happ

Pitchers (swing)
Severino, Sabathia, Cessa

The starting lineup for Game 1 should be:

1. DJLM
2. Judge
3. Gleyber
4. Encarnacion
5. Sanchez
6. Didi
7. Stanton
8. Maybin
9. Gardner

The choices are difficult. But you want your best arms and your most dominant lineup in the playoffs with a few options for flexibility. That lineup looks scary, but would be scarier if that was Tauchman in the eighth hole and not Maybin. Apologies to Luke Voit, but this seems the best to me and the overall process has given me confidence that the Yankees are well placed to make a run at the title.

Aaron Judge's First and 100th Homers Nearly Identical

Aaron Judge, the New York Yankees' fan favorite slammed his 100th career home run last night in Seattle. Judge's 100th homer was hit some three years and eleven days after he hit his very first Major League homer at Yankee Stadium. The remarkable thing about the first and the 100th were how similarly they were hit.

See for yourself. This was Judge's first career homer, courtesy of MLB.com:


Here is Aaron Judge's 100th home run, also courtesy of MLB.com



They look pretty darned similar, didn't they!? Both were hit to center and though they were hit in two different parks, both homers banged more than half way up the batter's eye. How similar were they beyond this eye test?

Aaron Judge's very first MLB homer on August 13, 2016, traveled 446 feet. Last night's homer was projected at 462 feet. That is within 16 feet of his first one. Masahiro Tanaka was the starter for both games: Judge's first and last night. Both Judge homers made the score, 2-0 in the Yankees' favor. The pitches Judge hit for his first and last homers were in similar quadrants and both were up in the strike zone. The following is from Brooks Baseball and shows the placement of both. The first one is the first career homer off of Matt Andriese and the second is the 100th homer:

The similarities pretty much die down after that. Judge was batting eighth when he hit is first homer. He homered on the fourth pitch and it was an 87 mph cutter. Last night, Judge was batting second, hit the first pitch and it was a 92 mph fastball.

The one huge similarity with both homers is that they add to the Aaron Judge legend. For many of us, he is the reason we stay up late when the games are on the West Coast. He is the anticipation every time he comes to the plate. And when he hits one, he is the thrill that makes baseball so fun to watch.

It has been a fun ride watching Aaron Judge from his first game until now. Last night was a milestone. Hopefully, it will not be the last.

Yankees Middle Relief Brings No Relief

Sunday's loss to the Cleveland Indians really highlights a huge issue for the otherwise juggernaut team. If the starting pitcher has a bad day, the Yankees do not have pitchers who can stop the bleeding. The team's strength, of course, is the team's offense and the back end of the bullpen. But since the Yankees rely on all four members of the back end in games where they are ahead and they are never asked to pitch more than two games in a row, the middle area of the bullpen must close the gap. And they cannot.

The problem begins with the starting rotation. Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German average slightly above five and two-thirds of an inning per outing. JA Happ, CC Sabathia and James Paxton average just slightly above five innings per outing and less than five and one-third. Everyone who follows the team knows that the lack of length (in innings) by this starting staff is a huge weakness. But since the Yankees did not (or would not) address the problem at the trade deadline, it is what it is and cannot be fixed.

If the Yankees are ahead in the game, then Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman must all pitch to cover the last four innings of the game. If the Yankee starters could go seven innings, then you could split the four and use two a night. That does not happen with this 2019 version of the New York Yankees. If you use all four two nights in a row, then the rest of the bullpen has to get the outs. They cannot. And sadly, the rest of the bullpen cannot even hold big leads forcing the back end of the bullpen into action when things seemed to be a done deal.

Let's look at the list of long relievers, middle relievers and the sad sacks of the rest of the Yankees' bullpen:

• Jonathan Holder did a great job last season but has been a disaster this season. Now he is injured. His ERA is a bit inflated, but his FIP is not sterling and sits at 4.45. The strikeout rate is good, but he allows too many hits and homers.
• Nester Cortez Jr. was cute for a while and heaven knows the Yankees' radio broadcasters love him. The cuteness has worn off and Cortez Jr. cannot seem to stop those tack-on runs from the other team that put games out of reach. He now has a 4.56 ERA and a FIP of 5.05. His WHIP is rapidly approaching 1.4.
• Chance Adams did not work out. As much as Yankee fans who love prospects rooted for him, Adams does not look like a MLB pitcher. His numbers are simply horrid.
• Stephen Tarpley has gotten a lot of air time and, at times, looked very good. But they have been too few and too far between. His WHIP is over 2, he walks too many batters and he gives up (like all on this list) a startling number of homers. He is now on the injured list.
• Jonathan Loaisiga has only pitched in five games. And he has the proverbial "great stuff." But he cannot harness that stuff. His ERA is 5.94 and his FIP is slightly lower. His lack of command makes him unattractive. He has the stuff of a Luis Severino or a German. But until he can figure out some consistent way to make it work, he is not a good option.
• Luis Cessa is a personal pet peeve. The ONLY reason he made the team out of Spring Training was that he was out of options and the Yankees did not want to lose him. That reality has made him like a Rule 5 player selection where the Yankees must keep him as part of the team all season. His ERA is 4.36, but his FIP is closer to five at 4.92. Cessa's most maddening trait is to get the first two outs of an inning and then walks a guy and all hell breaks loose.
• Joe Harvey, Joe Mantiply and Brady Lail. Thanks for trying. We rooted for you.
• David Hale is the only middle reliever that has gotten the job done. But he has a back issue and that is never good. He is out of action until, at least, the end of the month.
• Chad Green has been a puzzle. At times he looks brilliant and then at times he is a mess. His overall numbers are bad. His ERA is 5.59 but his FIP is 4.19. His strikeout to walk rate is sparkling. But his WHIP and hits per inning are ugly. He was doing well as an "opener" and then he was not. 

What options do the Yankees have at this point? On the immediate end, there is not much. The team will probably give Loaisiga and Domingo Acevedo a shot at some point. The latter is intriguing. He has put up great strikeout rates an does not walk many (2.4 per nine). But he has given up a boatload of hits and homers for the Railriders in his first ten games. He is already on the 40-man Roster. And at some point, the Yankees will see what they have with Ryan Dull. Dull is also on the roster.

In the longer term, the Yankees can hope that Luis Severino can get back soon. He could pitch the remainder of the season in the bullpen, be an opener and add some quality innings. The same could be said of Jordan Montgomery. But Montgomery does not seem as close to returning as Severino. And, it would be great if Dellin Betances was ever available and can pitch close to his usual dominance.

It could not hurt things to try Loaisiga, Dull and Acevedo right now and DFA Cessa and Adams. The former has had four years to make his mark and has not. The latter simply does not seem to be a prospect any longer. Keep Chad Green and hope you get more good than bad. Hope that Hale comes back soon and limit Nester Cortez Jr. to one or two innings.

The reality is that the starting rotation will not get better. They cannot seem to limit the pitches per batter and per inning to get longer into games. The Yankees have to get a combination of relievers that can hold the other team to whatever damage the starters have allowed and give the offense a chance to get back in the game. Sabathia left after giving up four runs on Sunday. The Yankees scored four runs. Unfortunately, the bullpen coughed up another four runs making things a moot point and a loss.

Things I Worry About With the New York Yankees

The bottom line for the New York Yankees 2019 has a nice flush to it at the mid-point of August. The team has a healthy ten-game lead on the second place Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox are out of it (if not mathematically). And the Yankees are fighting among three teams for the best record in baseball. Those are all good things, right? Then why do I worry so much? Is it just my nature to worry? Or are my concerns legitimate? Let me list them out.

Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge does not look fearsome at the plate. If anything, he looks tepid and easy to pitch to. His fly ball rate has shriveled up. He seems to have lost his sense of the strike zone. Pitchers are exploiting his weaknesses at will (good pitchers and not-so-good pitchers alike). What is wrong with the big guy? Has he lost his way? Is it just a slump? Is it lingering effects of his torn abdominal muscle? When he is right, he adds a dimension of fear into the Yankees' lineup. It gives fans a sense of anticipation and hope. None of those things are there right now. Gosh, I hope it is just a slump.

Bullpen Walks

Nobody seems concerned that all the big guns in the bullpen cannot manage to pitch an inning without a walk or two. It concerns me greatly. Adam Ottavino has more walks allowed than Domingo German and CC Sabathia. He is only two behind Masahiro Tanaka and three behind JA Happ. Zack Britton is only three walks behind Ottavino. Even closer, Aroldis Chapman is walking four batters per nine innings.  The addition of Jonathan Loaisiga does not help that proposition with his five walks per nine.

Sooner or later, these walks will catch up to the bullpen. In many ways, it already has. Ottavino coughed up a lead this week. I long for two things. One is 1-2-3 innings from these "big" relievers. And two, I long for each and every one of them to stop fooling around with two strikes and go after the hitters. Tommy Kahnle is the only one who consistently throws strikes when he comes in to pitch.

Starting Pitching

Yes, there have been some better starts lately. But they have come against bad teams. I have absolutely no confidence in any starter as a "shut down" pitcher and none of them can consistently get to the fifth inning with less than 100 pitches. Paxton has been showing signs of figuring things out. But put five good starts together before any kind of comfort level returns. Tanaka is a different pitcher in each and every outing. Which he will be on any particular night is impossible to predict. And Happ is just not there. He cannot get his fastball command no matter how often he pitches.

Injuries Continue

Yes, the big story has been the "next man up" mentality shown by fill in players playing for the Yankees' stars. But how soon does Cameron Maybin return to what he has always been before? Will the magic last for Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela? Do you really want Mike Ford getting post season at bats? Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks have been total injury busts. Luke Voit might get back at the end of August. Edwin Encarnacion was just starting to deliver and he is gone. It just never seems to end. Does it worry anyone else that this "magic" can turn to sawdust at any time? Will these surprising players hold up against post season pitching? Its worrisome.

The other thing about injuries is the lack of continuity it causes. Somebody comes back, has to get his timing back and then hope that he does not get injured again. The great Katy Sharp told me that the Yankees have had the same lineup less than five times all season. Holy smokes!

Aaron Boone And The Bullpen

The Yankees' manager has been exemplary in most ways this season. The success has to be given to him at least partly for his indefatigable nature. But one area of weakness is the opposite of Joe Girardi's. Girardi always had too quick of a hook. Boone always seems to be two to three outs too late. He completely ruined the feel good story of Brady Lail the other night by pitching him an inning too long. Now the poor guy has been DFA'd. I hope you had a nice moment, Brady. Luis Cessa always pitches an inning too long as does Nester Cortez Jr. It has been a consistent problem. Add in the pressure of the post season and what happens?

So, yes, I should be rolling along with this train as it rides toward what seems to be a division win. I should be enjoying this ride. But I do not. I worry. I fret. And I hope like everything that my fears are all unfounded.

Yankees Miss Jugular

The New York Yankees won the first two games in their series against the Tampa Bay Rays and built their largest lead of the year in the division. They lost a tough game on Saturday on a walk-off homer. Hey, that happens. The team still had a chance of leaving that house of horrors called, Tropicana Field, of taking three of four games. Instead, Aaron Boone said it was a good time to rest his two most reliable and versatile hitters (and All Stars), DJ LaMahieu and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees scored one run against Charlie Morton and settled for a split. Instead of stepping on the Rays' jugular, the Yankees stuck to their every game is not important way of life.

I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?

I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.

The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.

 Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran.  Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.

One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.

I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.

The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.

Every Day Is Gleyber Day

The news that New York Yankees' radio announcer, John Sterling, was taking a few games off for the first time in 31 years prompted a revisit of Sterling's wonderful (to me) home run calls. One of my favorites is, "It's Gleyber Day!" One of the most overlooked factors of this amazing Yankees' season is that every day for the Yankees is Gleyber Day. Gleyber Torres has been so steady and such a rock for a kid that is 22-years-old, he has been an unsung superglue for his team.

Rightly so, DJ LeMahieu has been getting most of the attention along with the All-Star season of Gary Sanchez. Luke Voit has shared a spotlight as has Gio Urshela and others that filled in during the injury-plagued first half. In fact, the injuries have been the number one story along with how well the team has done despite them.

And now, while DJLM is still cruising along and is one of two Yankee All-Star starters, the focus of attention (again, rightly so) has been the return of Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks. Add in some concerns about the pitching and the expectation that Brian Cashman will again come to the rescue with some help there, and there is little ink left for anything else.

But let's catch our breath a second and consider the continuing maturity of a very young cog of the Yankees' success: Gleyber Torres. After all, Torres is second on the team in Wins Above Replacement behind only DJLM (and ahead of Sanchez). And to show you how he seems to get lost in the fray, Torres has been batting seventh and eighth in the lineup!

The overshadowing of Gleyber Torres began in the second half of last season. In the spring, he was the most anticipated call-up for the Yankees in decades. He was on everyone's mind ever since Cashman obtained him as part of the Aroldis Chapman-to-the-Cubs trade. And then it finally happened and everyone was so excited!

Torres continued to be a focus as his call-up was followed by spectacular play so that after the first half, he was sitting with a .905 OPS to go with 15 homers, a triple and ten doubles. His smile was infectious and his play in the field was, at times, jaw-dropping.

But then he got hurt and missed most of July which is exactly when Miguel Andujar got hot and stayed hot for the rest of the season. Gleyber Torres returned but was not the same player and I believe he played August and September not in full health. His struggles included what looked like some lack of concentration on some plays in the field and had less joy in his countenance. Andujar was the new darling.

If you look at Torres' first half last season and first half this season, there are similarities. His first half led to the aforementioned .905 OPS in 2018 and his first half of 2019 shows him at .913. But if you look closely, there are a lot of improvements. The first, of course, is his fielding. I believe his non-healthy second half last year led to some artificially low defensive numbers. This year, whether at short or at second, he has been consistently good. He was much better than expected at short while filling in there for Didi!

But his batting has also shown improvement. His strikeout percentage is down while his walk rate is up. His ISO is up while showing a slight improvement in Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP). His hard contact rate has improved as has his home run to fly ball rate. Last year, according to Fangraphs.com, he had negative scores against sliders, cutters, and split-fingered pitches. This year, Torres does not have a negative score on any pitch.

Fangraphs also shows that his contact rate has increased and his swinging strike rate has decreased. These things all point to improvement and from all accounts, Torres is focused on being the best player he can be. So I do not believe we've seen anything yet from Gleyber Torres.

Of all 19-22-year-old players in the league, Gleyber Torres ranks second in the American League in WAR behind Rafael Devers and sixth overall in the Majors. There are a lot of exciting young players in baseball right now and Gleyber Torres is one of them. And there is no reason that he cannot get much better than finishing his first full season on pace for over five wins above replacement.

And an important thing to note: as much as we all love Aaron Judge, Judge's window of stardom is a lot shorter because he is five years older than Torres. He may be overlooked now, but Gleyber Torres will become a face of this Yankee franchise for years to come.

Rain Delay Read - Two Pitching Trade Desires

There is nothing worse than waiting all day for a baseball game, especially a game that features the return of Giancarlo Stanton, and then having the game on a rain delay. Enough with the rain already! When did New York become part of a rain forest? Instead of sitting here stewing, I figured I would give my two cents on which two pitchers I would target to get the rotation over the hump for a deep run into the post season.

Granted, there are internal possibilities on the horizon. Eventually, Luis Severino will be back and Jordan Montgomery seems to be on track to return in July. There is no way you can count on these two pitchers having any kind of productivity this season. If it happens, super. But that is in a perfect world. The world is imperfect and the New York Yankees seem to need at least one stud in the rotation. Think Justin Verlander joining the Astros or something like that.

Here are two thoughts on pitchers I would target for trade to boost the Yankees' rotation:

1. Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers. Boyd is making $2.6 million for a team going nowhere. He is 28-years-old and having a career season. Granted, he has never been this good before. But his numbers are sterling. With a FIP of 3.06, a K/9 rate of 11.4 and a BB/9 rate of 1.7. He is 28 years old and controllable until 2023. And he made 31 starts last year and is on his way to doing the same thing this year. The only blemish on his record is his homer per nine rate of 1.1 and he is pretty much a five-inning pitcher.

The other thing I look at is that, for his career, Boyd has held the Red Sox to a .738 OPS and held the Tampa Bay Rays to a .606 OPS (small sample size alert). He has faced the Red Sox five times and the Rays three times.

Why is this trade desirable for the Tigers? First, any saved money for the Tigers is saved money. Secondly, the Tigers cannot hit. They are next to last in Batting Average and On Base Percentage and last in the AL in Slugging Percentage. A trade for Clint Frazier and a lower grade prospect immediately makes Frazier the best hitter on their team. Plus, he is cheap.

2. Stephen Strasburg - Washington Nationals.  The Nationals may believe they have a shot in the NL East or for the wildcard. But I do not see it. They had an opportunity to gain a ton for Bryce Harper last year and missed the boat. The combination of Max Scherzer and Strasburg are incredibly expensive. But the reason I bypass Scherzer is that he is older by four years and is owed $42 million each year for the next couple of years. Holy cow!

There are some questions about Strasburg. He has not made 30 starts since 2014. But he has won 64% of his starts over his career and has struck out more than ten batters per nine for six straight seasons. He is not cheap either. He is making $38 million this season and can opt out at the end of the season. But he goes down to $15 million for the next two seasons (if he doesn't opt out) and then $45 million in the final year of the deal. It is a weird contract. With Scott Boras as his agent, the possibility of an opt out is strong.

Depending on how much the Nats kick in to Strasburg's contract, I would think that Frazier and, say Thairo Estrada could get it done. Estrada might be particularly attractive because Brian Dozier is bumping up to the 32-33-year-old Robbie Alomar second base wall. He could complete a terrific infield for the Nats.

Those are my two cents. Looking at all the teams in the bottoms of standings, these two pitchers, Stephen Strasburg and Matthew Boyd, seem the most interesting when it comes to putting the Yankees' rotation over the top and at least able to compete against the best teams in the American League.

MLB All Star Voting Is Seriously Flawed

I just completed my first ballot for the MLB All Star roster over at MLB.com. The "first ballot" thought is a real sticking point. Why are there multiple votes allowed? Is this American Idol? And what about the timing of the start of voting? Can we really tell who deserves to go based on two months of baseball? These are some of the hangups I have when it comes to, not only this new voting, but also the old way. I am not a fan of fan voting.

First of all, I feel a very compelling guilt if I do not vote for many members of my favorite team. I have been so pleased with DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, so the urge is to vote for them. But Urshela currently stands 17th in the league in fWAR for third basemen. LeMahieu has a better argument, but if you boil it all down, Tommy La Stella and Brandon Lowe have a slight edge. Of course, part of the problem is the unreliability of the defensive statistics. Is Urshela really the sixteenth best fielding third baseman in baseball? I have a really hard time buying that.

The only Yankee I voted for was Gary Sanchez. That's it. To me, that is the way it should be done. You should not vote for hometown guys or guys with great reputations. Who is the best this year? Vote for that guy. But how many are like me out there? I am not trying to paint myself as this saint, but you know the majority of fans are voting for hometown guys or guys who were great in years past. When that happens, you get Bryce Harper starting for the NL in 2018.

If it was one vote per person, then there might be more clarity for guys and gals that think like me to have a chance. But if you can vote dozens of times or whatever it is, everything gets muddy and you do not get a true picture of who should start the game.

I also believe that the voting should not be started until two weeks before the final selections or the game itself. Say, for example, you could vote for pitchers and Domingo German is on the ballot when you first go to vote at the very start of June or whenever they started. German was an All Star in April and May. He is not now. That is how fast things can change.

How about if the reverse is true? What if a guy was just middling through April and May and plays with stars in his hair in June and by the end of the month is the best player at his position to that point? Sorry, pal, we already voted for someone else.

I do not believe that smaller market teams are penalized as in the past when voting was by cards given out at the ballpark. With things on the Internet now, it should not matter that way any more. Plus, I am not sure I buy the small market idea anyway. When every franchise is worth at least a billion or more and all that money pours in from MLB.com, etc., then you only have franchises that spend money and those who would rather pocket the money.

The alternatives are unattractive as well. Polling managers leads to team stacking. Just look at how pitchers are selected. Last year's league champion manager will put his entire pitching staff out there if he can manage it. So, no, that does not work. Writers cannot even get the Hall of Fame ballot correctly. How will they manage an All Star selection? The problem is that some will do their homework and others will just file it in. Do players really know how all the other players are doing? Doubtful.

I would be okay with fan voting if it was one vote per fan. Perhaps I could go as high as three if some change their minds. But that's it. I would also be okay if the selections were made from equal shares of writers, fans, managers and players. I just know that a plethora of votes per fan is not productive and will not lead to the best players starting the game.

All that said, MLB has the best All Star format and game in all of sports. It is the only major sport where the players actually play the game to the best of their abilities. As flawed as the voting is, the MLB All Star game is the only one in sports I am willing to watch.

A Really Dusty MLB Crystal Ball-2019

For many years, this blog had produced an annual "crystal ball" list of predictions for the coming season. Somehow surviving three moves and years of inactivity, a very dusty crystal ball has been once again summoned to bring in the new year. What follows is not your scientific, analysis driven predictions based on playing 2,000 Strat-O-matic baseball games. It is an off-the-cuff look into an obviously hard to clarify crystal ball that has sat in the closet for far too many years:

• If he stays healthy, Yasiel Puig is going to have a monster year for the Reds, make the All Star team and be in the top five for MVP
• If he stays healthy, Aaron Judge will top Mookie Betts and Mike Trout for the 2019 MVP in the American League. Judge missed fifty games last year and still had as many WAR (5.1) as Fangraphs.com says he will have for a whole season in 2019. Wrong!
• Two of the top three pitchers in NL Cy Young Award voting last year will be in the top three again this year. The one dropping out will be Aaron Nola.
• The San Diego Padres will be one of the Wild Card teams in the NL.
• Troy Tulowitzki will see more games played than Aaron Hicks.
• Matt Wieters will catch as many or more games as Yadier Molina and have a nice bounce-back season.
• Sticking with the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright will have a swansong season, ala Mike Mussina, and lead the Cardinals to an NL Central Division championship.
• A lot has to go right for an aging, but talented group of starting pitchers, but the Washington Nationals will edge the Phillies for the NL East title. One of the biggest keys is whether Stephen Strasburg can turn in a star turn this season.
• The Red Sox will again edge the Yankees in the AL East. Starting pitching is too much of a problem for the Yankees to overcome.
• The Indians will again run away with a terrible AL Central with only the Twins and White Sox having a shot at flirting with the .500 mark.
• I do not see the Chicago Cubs making the playoffs. They have an old rotation, an unsettled bullpen and the offense is not as potent as it once was. The Brewers will be a better team.
• Bryce Harper will hit forty homers and walk more than 100 times.
• The Dodgers are far from a lock as the NL West champs. Their rotation is banged up with only Kenta Meada being a reliable option. The outfield seems to be a wasteland, Corey Seager has to find his way back. The infield lacks star players not named Justin Turner. Where is the talent?
• The American League will adjust a bit to Blake Snell. He will be good, but not AS good.
• But who in the NL West can overtake the Dodgers? The Rockies will take a step back. The Diamondbacks will miss their first baseman. The Giants do not seem a threat. Who then?
• The Oakland Athletics will take a step backwards. A LOT went right for them last year. That kind of thing doesn't happen very often two years in a row.
• Thus, alas, the Astros will again win the AL West with probably the Angels finishing second...distantly.
• The Yankees will break their own home run record. Gleyber Torres will have a better year than Miguel Andujar. Giancarlo Stanton will be better and Gary Sanchez may hit .230 but will hit 30+ homers.
• J.D. Martinez will take a step back this season. He will be solid, but not quite the force he was last year. Injuries will limit him this year.
• In a race for the MLB's most losses, the Orioles will again outlast the Marlins due to the amount of games the Orioles play against powerhouse rivals.
• Umpire Angel Hernandez will average causing 5.3 Twitter rants per week.
• MVPs - AL: Aaron Judge,  NL: Christian Yelich repeat.
• CYA - AL: Chris Sale, NL: Max Scherzer
• Rookie of the Year: AL: Elroy Jimenez, NL: Pete Alonso
• Manager Of The Year: AL: Alex Cora, NL: Mike Schildt (can I buy a vowel?)
• Comeback Player: AL: Dustin Pedroia, NL: Adam Wainwright
• And here is the big one: The players union and MLB will sign a major and new labor agreement that will bring harmony to the game for another ten years.

Enjoy the return of our favorite sport!

Hero worship versus sports as entertainment

It has not shocked me in recent weeks to read stories about Jayson Werth getting ten days in jail or the varied reports on people like Bill Cosby or Adrian Peterson. Those who are fortunate enough to become very good at high visibility skills such as sports and entertainment are artificially built as superstars. But they are people. Just as we are all people.

Hero worship has never been a problem for me. From the earliest age, I seemed to have a build in knowledge that we are all created equal. And as much as it pains the modern person, those ideals came from a Judeo-Christian mindset. I happen to believe them. We are all just people muddling our way through life as best we can. At its basest level, we all are birthed in a bloody mess and eat and poop and sleep...even star players and entertainers.

I did have heroes growing up. I loved Mickey Mantle and Mel Stottlemyre and others. But my hero thing was based on enjoying what they did on the ball field and the familiarity of having watched them regularly. I've written myriads of thousands of words on Derek Jeter as a fan of his game and not not on his "mystique" or image.

Much of hero worship has come from writers and journalists. The Old West was a real starting point as writers built false images of Davy Crockett, Wyatt Earp and outlaws like Billy the Kid. Sports writers carried on that tradition and built legends out of Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Hank Aaron. Jeter is just the latest to be lionized beyond reality.

You see it with this image of Torii Hunter as the ultimate team guy and we on Twitter now have a lot of fun at poking holes at "scrappy" players. The bottom line is how a player performs and how his team fares, but we still have writers who make a living creating legends that go beyond results.

Part of the reason stat-based writers have risen to such heights is that in this post-Watergate era, many have swung the other way and love when icons are brought down from the lofty spots they hold in public imagination. Ryan Howard became a lightning rod between the myth-makers and Howard's RBI totals and stat-based writers who poked holes in his game.

So we have kind of come to a weird place in the history of public perception. There are those looking for demons behind every celebrity's tree and those that are still creating icons. Both still sell, which makes it all that much more confusing.

When I first moved to northern Maine and went back to school (some twenty-four years ago now), I worked at a hotel for three years. That will open your eyes about the human race. George Mitchell was the second most powerful man in the country at the time and used to call for a room. If reservations were full, his handlers would insist I find a place for him.

My answer was, "Let me give you a list of the reservations and you can tell me who I should tell not to come."

The answer was always, "Do you know who George Mitchell is?"

My answer was always, "I don't care if he is the Pope, I don't have a room."

I once had to deal with a national news correspondent for one of networks. One day he came down the elevator and asked how much the paper was. I said, "For you, it's free." His answer was that just because he was on TV, I didn't have to give him a paper for free. I told him politely that all of our customers get a free paper and that's what I meant.

The actor who played the lead on the early television show, Dark Shadows, stayed for a week. Every single day I had to show him how to get to the hotel restaurant.

They are all just people. Just like we are all just people. When I hear writers talking about those suspected of using Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) as, "Cheaters," it gets to me because they were just people making a decision about what could make them more money more effective at what they did. Which of us would avoid that decision if it could mean millions of dollars and the Majors versus the Minors? Apparently, a large share of the baseball player population made that decision. Few resisted. And yet we judge those we know about because of that same George Mitchell. Funny that.

When I view sports--particularly baseball as that is my wheelhouse--I view and am entertained by the performance in the scheme of the game. I view actors in a movie the same way. They are skilled people performing a skill-seeking task. I watch a good carpenter the same way. Performance is entertaining. Skill is entertaining.

But skill has never equaled a higher grade of person for me. I admire the work of a great carpenter, but I don't think that carpenter is better than the person who makes a mean sundae at Friendly's.  And frankly, the president of the United States can be of any skin color, gender or sexual orientation as long as they do a good job.

Having such a view means that I am not heartbroken when Ryan Braun gets caught or fall for stories about how great a guy Torii Hunter is.

People are people. Those who get paid a lot of money are just like you and me. Just like us, they make a thousand decisions a day and just like us, some of those decisions can be costly. I try very hard not to judge others and I will not judge players or famous people who get caught up in scandal. There is a higher power who will do that judging.

And on the other side of the coin, I do not build idols of gold for players or the famous because they are skillful at a high-profile career. They either entertain me or they do not. Nothing more and nothing less. I encourage you to view them this same way and teach your children the same way. We are all created equal. Some just get paid better than others.

Baseball as a Social Network

If you wanted to read about baseball fifteen years ago, what you had were a bunch of newspaper writers and a handful of magazines such as The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated and Sports magazine. And then after January, there were a handful of preseason magazines that would give news about teams and how they looked for the coming season. Today, there are not only dozens of mainstream media outlets on-line, but also thousands of bloggers out there, most of whom are pretty darned good at what they do.

The Fan has been ahead of the curve, behind the curve and sometimes along side it. Please don't scoff, but the Fan was an early pioneer of the heady AOL days. The Fan joined that network and ran a music trivia site there and was chatting as far back as 1992 when all we had was 1200 baud connections. Basically, you would click to start the program and then go eat dinner. The site was probably up by the time dinner was finished.

Even in those early days, whatever baseball news on places like AOL was "powered" by networks already established. The Fan was also into IRC and bulletin boards, which were the early days of content based discussion. Bulletin boards catered to specific tastes and interests as did IRC groups.

The Fan got behind a bit because of work stresses and marital situations and kid situations no different than many of the sea of humanity. And then as a senior executive in charge of customer service for a software company, the Fan read an article on something new called blogging. The Fan approached the software company founder and asked if it was something that might work with our customers. He gave the green light and our company blog was created, the first in our industry and one of the first anywhere.

As the software company got larger, pressures were induced to squash customer comments and politicize the blog in such a way that the company couldn't look bad. The Fan fought the good fight and resisted until resisting was futile about two years ago. But the customers loved the site so much and were so angry at losing it that they went out and created their own where the company couldn't mess with them. Good for them!

A little after that blog was created, this site was born. The first year was fun and posting was faithful. But again, life pressures interfered and we humans only have so much emotional energy and blogging requires quite a bit of it. So it was give the blog up or melt down completely. Sanity won out. Occasional attempts were made to resurrect, but usually sputtered away.

Then our little software company that could became the bulldozer that still could but could no longer turn on a dime. A bigger fish bought us out and swallowed the littler fish and moved customer service to Georgia. The Fan was offered the chance to move along and continue what he started which was a gratifying offer. But the Fan has a little girl, now thirteen, who lives with her mom. Moving meant leaving her and the Fan couldn't be an absentee dad. The grown up son didn't want Dad to leave either. Thinking that being a dad was more important than being financially comfortable, the Fan politely declined during the worst economic time since the Depression. Good timing there, Dad.

And so, there is time for blogging. And you know what? It's fun again and different. Different how? Well, for one thing, the big boys like ESPN.com and Yahoo Sports discovered blogging and pros are doing it now. Plus, thousands of others have sprung up around the country and around the world. The Fan has joined a few link sites like sportsblogs.org and BallHype.com and it is hard to make a dent. Sportsblog.org alone has links to over 3000 baseball blogs and BallHype about two thirds of that. The Fan is now ranked something like 1813 on BallHype. Heh. And the Fan can occasionally crack the first page of posts on sportsblog.org.

It does matter, but it doesn't. The Fan didn't start this site because he wanted to be noticed. The Fan started this site because he loves baseball and always has. Sure, we all have a little ego and want to be respected and important, but here, that is a goal but not an obsession.

The cool thing is, just like in the old days of AOL and IRC and bulletin boards, social networks start developing. Who would have thought a Sicilian from New Jersey, now shivering in northern Maine would develop a social "hello" relationship with a much younger kid whose site features Jews in Baseball. And it matters because he has a unique perspective, writes well and is thoughtful and provocative. The Fan has made other "friends" from other sites and the social network is growing.

There are some sites that the Fan is just too unhip to join. Those that feature open swearing are just not places the Fan will choose to go. No big deal and no judgement here. It's just a choice, right? But there are so many unique points of view and interesting ways of looking at things. And underlying it all is a love for our sport. Baseball is special and there is just something deep about it that cuts through the crap and puts us all on equal footing. It's why national figures like Neyer and Gammons and others recognize and support bloggers they find interesting. Where else would established "stars" support a medium that might some day replace them?

Talent is more widely spread than most realize. The Fan always thought the only difference between this writer and Michener was that Michener was more focused and more organized. That certainly has some truth to it. But mostly, it's that few in previous generations had the opportunity. It's not like the Renaissance where families like Di Medici would sponsor all talented artists. You needed to get a break...a lucky break. The Fan remembers sending a poem to a well-known magazine and receiving a very nice letter back praising the poem. But the Fan was told that thousands of submissions were received every month and only a few would be published.

What's interesting is that the Internet has become the new Di Medici. We are all sponsored by this great free and freewheeling universe that allows us to create whatever it is we want to create. If it makes a difference or if it gets noticed, fantastic. But don't those with an artistic bent just want to create? Isn't that the real reason we do this?

Sure, the Fan would like to figure out how to make money at it. Sure, the Fan wants to be featured someday on Wednesday Wangdoodles {smile}. Sure, the Fan even dreams of being the next Big League Stew. Why not? But the reality is that it's just fun to write every day about something you are passionate about and the ability to make a few friends along the way. That's cool enough in its own right.

Speaking of that curve again, what the heck is Twitter?