[[switching to the first person]] Toronto is home to one of the finest bloggers in the blogsphere. He is also a notorious and self-described homer for his home town sports teams. And my blog bud's problem is similar to a small man's complex. The Yankees and the Red Sox are the "haves" and the Blue Jays are the "have nots." Understood. Today, this fine blogger linked another blogger on money being the root of all evil in baseball. I could say this politely, but, we might as well be frank: Phooey.
Let's go back in the time machine and peer into the world of the New York Yankees in the 1960s. I was there and this was the world I grew up in. Born and bred in New Jersey (please don't hold that against me as I have been gone from there for 35 years now), the Yankees were the home team and they were our world...and they stunk to high heaven.
Back then, the team was owned by CBS, the media giant, and were run by a flamboyant former mayor of the city by the name of John Lindsey. I don't really know how good he was as a mayor but it is hoped that he was a better mayor than he was a baseball man. CBS simply ran the grand old team into the ground. After decades of Ruths and Gehrigs, DiMaggios, Yogis and Mantles, the Yankees became a team filled with the likes of Tom Tresh, Dooley Womack, Mike Kekich, Horace Clarke, Thad Tillotson, Lindy McDaniel, Mike Hegan and Roger Repoz. I don't suppose you have ever heard of any of them.
In 1967, the New York Yankees batted .223 as a team. That's right. .223. They were tenth in a ten team league in runs scored, doubles, and slugging percentage. They had a .613 team OPS. The year after that, they batted .214 as a team. Yeah, .214. Can you imagine? They make the Giants look like a hitting team. That year (1968), their infield consisted of Mantle at first (in his last year). He batted .237. Horace Clarke batted lead off and hit .230 with a .258 OBP. He was the second baseman. Tom Tresh played short. He hit .195 in 507 at bats. Bobby Cox (yup, the same guy sitting as the great guru of Atlanta) played third and batted .229. How's that for an infield?
The point of all this? The Yankees were a dead franchise. Tickets were so cheap that after my dad died, my mom would send us to the Stadium as her way of babysitting us when she had to work on Saturday. She gave my brother and me $5 each and that was enough for the bus to the city, the subway to the stadium, entrance to the bleachers and we had enough left over for a coke. The Yankees, if you can imagine it, barely drew over a million fans. My brother and I would wait until the ushers left after the fourth inning and then go down to the empty box seats behind the Yankee dugout. We saw all our heroes (what did we know?) up close for $5 round trip. One of the only reasons that the attendance figure was as high as it was came from two unique events: Bat Day and Old Timer's Day. Those two events brought in 65,000 people. The rest of the time? Nothing.
The Yankees had only a public television deal with WPIX (channel 11) and a radio deal with WCBS, a powerful station that sent Yankee broadcasts far and wide around New England. George Steinbrenner bought the team for a song. Really. He paid $10 million for the team. You couldn't buy a minor league club for that amount. That's how badly the Yankees' mess had become.
And love him or hate him, Steinbrenner knew what he was doing. He hired good baseball people and they started developing players like Thurman Munson, Don Mattingly, Ron Guidry and others. You've heard of them, right? When free agency broke, Steinbrenner jumped on it and got players like Goose Gossage, Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter and guys like Oscar Gamble. The team started winning and George created the Billy Martin soap opera and put the Yankees on the front page of the New York papers. The Stadium started hopping again.
The team later put together the YES network, the most successful sports channel and money maker in baseball. Now the team is an event in New York. Four million people come to see them play despite astronomical seat prices.
Want another example? From 1960 t0 1966, the Boston Red Sox went 499-624. They came in next to last place three times during that stretch. In 1965, the Red Sox drew only 654,000 fans to come see them play. Now everyone is mad at them because they and the Yankees are the "haves" in baseball and it's not fair and we need a salary cap.
What people don't understand is that both the Yankees and Red Sox have built their empires on smarts and shrewdness. They started with nothing and built what they have become today. Why are they vilified for their success? Why should their success be punished with a salary cap because other teams weren't as smart or as shrewd?
It wasn't too long ago that the Blue Jays were the cream of the American League. They drew over four million fans in their second World Championship season. Unfortunately, they haven't been able to keep that ball rolling and as such, have fallen behind in payroll. That's the way it is.
What the Yankees and the Red Sox (and the Cubs for that matter) have done is build a brand. It's a good old American tradition that still works. Grind your teeth if you will at the "Red Sox Nation" but it has worked in spades. The Cubs were, along with the Braves, the original pioneers of cable television. That brilliant stroke still pays off today as the Braves and the Cubs are in the top ten in road attendance. The Cubs are third and the Braves ninth. Toronto is 29th. They haven't built their brand.
And don't you think that road attendance isn't beneficial to all those teams the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers play? Say that the average ticket price is $15 (yeah, as if). Then the Cubs bring a gate on the road of $533,000. The Royals average gate at that price would be $410,000. All teams split the proceeds of MLB merchandise. The bonanza is somewhere around $65 million a team. Don't you understand that most of that merchandise is sales of Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs jerseys and hats? Yet all teams reap the same benefits.
Of course we all get tired of nationally televised games always being these big teams. Understood. But that's where the money is and again, all that money the networks pay the teams is shared equally. Do you think the Nationals sign Strasburg without that money? Not likely.
The "haves" in baseball have earned it. In 1966, the Cubs drew only 623,000 paying customers. Last year, it was 3.2 million with almost the same amount on the road. They successfully built a brand and thus can afford a higher payroll. That's the model folks. Build it and they will come.
And there is one other thing that works against the "have nots" and that is the union. MLB players have the strongest union in sports. There is no way they will ever agree to a salary cap. No way at all. It's not going to happen.
This Fan believes that a salary cap is nothing but an easy out for teams that just don't do business correctly. Some teams aren't smart enough to build a brand (or a good team for that matter) so let's do the salary cap so they can be rewarded for their lousy work. The sad truth is that they are already rewarded for their lousy work.
A commenter on the blog that started this opus warned that salary caps have led the NBA off season to become a fiasco as most teams make moves based on the cap instead of on what's best for the team. Besides, the salary cap hasn't done much for the Clippers and the Bengals has it? A badly run franchise is a badly run franchise and teams like the Royals have only themselves to blame.
Money isn't the root of evil in baseball. Bad personnel decisions and bad business models are.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Monday, August 24, 2009
Game Picks - Monday: August 24, 2009
Another day, another blah day of picking results. The games are all over the place so it's hard to figure out what is going to happen. This picker accurately picked that Lincecum wouldn't beat the Rockies, Sabathia would beat Beckett, Feldman would beat the Bay Rays and Pedro would beat the Mets (sort of). But those were the highlights to a mostly kerfuffles day.
Monday features only nine games as some teams get a rest. Perhaps this little mediocre streak will get a rest too.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 158-145
Monday features only nine games as some teams get a rest. Perhaps this little mediocre streak will get a rest too.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Cliff Lee goes to 5-0 in the NL.
- The Brewers over the Nationals: The suddenly awful Brewers should get a win here as Gallardo should beat Balester.
- The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Halladay should win at home versus Niemann.
- The Red Sox over the White Sox: It doesn't appear as if the Red Sox will catch the Yankees, but if they want to keep the wild card, they better get going.
- The Royals over the Indians: Going with Gil (ga) Meche over Sowers.
- The Twins over the Orioles: The Orioles spanked the White Sox yesterday, so who can figure them out. The Twins are even harder to figure out. Time to Eeney Meeney it.
- The Rockies over the Giants: The Giants lack of hitting is going to give the Rockies the wild card. Besides, Marquis is pitching.
- The Tigers over the Angels: Verlander needs to throw strikes, but if he does, he should win this one against Weaver.
- The Athletics over the Mariners: Ian Snell has to prove he can pitch again in the majors. This Fan doesn't see it happening.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 7-8
Month: 158-145
Another Red Sox - Yankees Series in the Books
Another chapter was written in the long, sordid history that is the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. For the time being, the Yankees have the edge in the match up as they have won six of the last seven meetings. There was some hesitation at writing this particular post because about 90% of the country have had their fill of this particular story and are nauseous from hearing about it. And that sick feeling would be worthy as only the last game was remotely close as a contest.
In game one of the series, the Yankees played butcher and the game was basically over by the fourth inning. In Saturday's game two, the Red Sox had basically iced the game by the third inning. At least there was a smidgen of drama in the last game.
In the finale, the Yankees jumped out to a 2-0 lead on solo homers by Jeter (on the first pitch of the game) and Hideki Matsui. But the Red Sox roared right back to tie it off of Sabathia with two runs of their own. But the suddenly gopher-plagued Josh Beckett couldn't keep the ball in the Park and the Yankees scored all their eight runs on homers to win the game. Sabathia wasn't brilliant, but he held down the Red Sox long enough to get to Hughes and Rivera. Sabathia wasn't helped by two stupid errors by Robinson Cano, who showed he still isn't totally beyond his tendency to fall asleep at the wheel at times.
That's probably enough of the details. You probably watched the game or if not, have seen plenty of news wire stories with the details. The remainder of this post is probably best served by a few observations from watching the fairly ugly series.
- For those 90% of you that are sick to death of the Red Sox and Yankees, you probably got sick to your stomachs by another nationally televised love-fest for Derek Jeter. Sheepishly, this writer has to admit that Jeter is his favorite player, but stating that fact makes the Fan pretty squeamish as you 90% have probably had your fill of him and the Fan can't blame you. Jeter is probably the third best offensive shortstop in history. It is obvious that he has the respect of his peers around the league and his own players. And that's well deserved. The guy has been a terrific player for a long, long time, but the announcers paint him as god-like and chiseled from some immortal cloth and face it, nobody is THAT good. Every time the Fan hears the announcers go all googly like that, there is much squirming in the seat as the Fan knows how that is sitting around the country. It's no wonder that Jeter is one of the favorite targets in the blogsphere.
- That said, Jeter sure is hot right now. The guy is piling up hits in huge bunches.
- The Burnett/Posada flap is a concern as is some building problems with the Red Sox' new catcher and his pitchers. Apparently, Burnett doesn't believe in Posada's pitch calling and was pretty demonstrative about it during his pounding. Joe Girardi has to step in here even if it means stepping on Posada's toes. Posada is on the down hill run of his career but Burnett is a healthy investment for a few more years to come. Girardi needs to step in and bring the pitcher and the catcher to the table and explain that Burnett should call his own game for a while.
- Pedroia is the kind of player you root for. He's a little guy and a bit of the Everyman. It seems evident though that last year was his peak as a player and though he'll be a useful and good player for years to come, he isn't going to repeat his MVP type season again.
- Kevin Youkilis needs to tone it down a bit. The guy got where he is by being a fiery player of immense drive that fuels his assault on the game. There is no doubt that his temperament helped get him from being a soft-tools guy and building his career until he is one of the best players in the game. But after his charge to the mound a couple of weeks ago and his loud swearing on national television after he struck out in the first inning, he needs to reel it in a notch for the sake of the fans, particularly the young ones. The Fan doesn't want to come across as a goody two shoes, but Youkilis has become a bit of a boor lately.
- This must be one of those generational things, but Sabathia's tattoos are gross.
- Back to Jeter for a second (yeah, yeah, the Fan hears ya), his homer on the first pitch was important psychologically for the Yankees. They just got their butts wiped the day before and Beckett has owned them going all the way back to the Marlins' World Series. For Jeter to start the game with a homer had to give his team a boost and showed them that there was hope in getting to Beckett, and that is exactly what happened.
- This series isn't the same without Tim Wakefield. He seriously messes with the Yankees' heads and Boston could have used him in this series.
- Wakefield has some company. That Haeger that pitched that gem for the Dodgers on Saturday is a knuckleballer. If the Dodgers get to the series and play the Yankees, they should seriously consider getting Haeger on the WS roster.
- Much was made during the telecast of the way that Jason Varitek moves at the last minute to keep the location of the pitch a secret until it is delivered. But one question comes to mind about that after watching him. When he moves, it's a very noticeable jump either outside or inside. Wouldn't most batters see that in their peripheral vision? One other question that people with more knowledge than this Fan might know: With such a late jerky move that occurs during the pitcher's wind up, wouldn't that make it just that much harder for the hurler to find his target?
- Gardner is missed on the Yankees. He does a lot of little things that help the team and his absence makes Melky play more often and Melky is better in shorter doses.
- The Fan is getting seriously tired of Swisher. And geez, man, get a new batting helmet. That Manny Ramirez look-a-like with all the pine tar on it is gross. One of these days, a lizard is going to crawl in that ooze and die and the fossil will be found a thousand years from now.
- A bad-hipped A-Rod is still a lot better player than most of his peers.
- Rocco Baldelli had a good game. You have to root for him. You just have to.
- And finally, in a "Duh" comment, the Yankees look better than the Red Sox these days for the first time in a very long time.
In game one of the series, the Yankees played butcher and the game was basically over by the fourth inning. In Saturday's game two, the Red Sox had basically iced the game by the third inning. At least there was a smidgen of drama in the last game.
In the finale, the Yankees jumped out to a 2-0 lead on solo homers by Jeter (on the first pitch of the game) and Hideki Matsui. But the Red Sox roared right back to tie it off of Sabathia with two runs of their own. But the suddenly gopher-plagued Josh Beckett couldn't keep the ball in the Park and the Yankees scored all their eight runs on homers to win the game. Sabathia wasn't brilliant, but he held down the Red Sox long enough to get to Hughes and Rivera. Sabathia wasn't helped by two stupid errors by Robinson Cano, who showed he still isn't totally beyond his tendency to fall asleep at the wheel at times.
That's probably enough of the details. You probably watched the game or if not, have seen plenty of news wire stories with the details. The remainder of this post is probably best served by a few observations from watching the fairly ugly series.
- For those 90% of you that are sick to death of the Red Sox and Yankees, you probably got sick to your stomachs by another nationally televised love-fest for Derek Jeter. Sheepishly, this writer has to admit that Jeter is his favorite player, but stating that fact makes the Fan pretty squeamish as you 90% have probably had your fill of him and the Fan can't blame you. Jeter is probably the third best offensive shortstop in history. It is obvious that he has the respect of his peers around the league and his own players. And that's well deserved. The guy has been a terrific player for a long, long time, but the announcers paint him as god-like and chiseled from some immortal cloth and face it, nobody is THAT good. Every time the Fan hears the announcers go all googly like that, there is much squirming in the seat as the Fan knows how that is sitting around the country. It's no wonder that Jeter is one of the favorite targets in the blogsphere.
- That said, Jeter sure is hot right now. The guy is piling up hits in huge bunches.
- The Burnett/Posada flap is a concern as is some building problems with the Red Sox' new catcher and his pitchers. Apparently, Burnett doesn't believe in Posada's pitch calling and was pretty demonstrative about it during his pounding. Joe Girardi has to step in here even if it means stepping on Posada's toes. Posada is on the down hill run of his career but Burnett is a healthy investment for a few more years to come. Girardi needs to step in and bring the pitcher and the catcher to the table and explain that Burnett should call his own game for a while.
- Pedroia is the kind of player you root for. He's a little guy and a bit of the Everyman. It seems evident though that last year was his peak as a player and though he'll be a useful and good player for years to come, he isn't going to repeat his MVP type season again.
- Kevin Youkilis needs to tone it down a bit. The guy got where he is by being a fiery player of immense drive that fuels his assault on the game. There is no doubt that his temperament helped get him from being a soft-tools guy and building his career until he is one of the best players in the game. But after his charge to the mound a couple of weeks ago and his loud swearing on national television after he struck out in the first inning, he needs to reel it in a notch for the sake of the fans, particularly the young ones. The Fan doesn't want to come across as a goody two shoes, but Youkilis has become a bit of a boor lately.
- This must be one of those generational things, but Sabathia's tattoos are gross.
- Back to Jeter for a second (yeah, yeah, the Fan hears ya), his homer on the first pitch was important psychologically for the Yankees. They just got their butts wiped the day before and Beckett has owned them going all the way back to the Marlins' World Series. For Jeter to start the game with a homer had to give his team a boost and showed them that there was hope in getting to Beckett, and that is exactly what happened.
- This series isn't the same without Tim Wakefield. He seriously messes with the Yankees' heads and Boston could have used him in this series.
- Wakefield has some company. That Haeger that pitched that gem for the Dodgers on Saturday is a knuckleballer. If the Dodgers get to the series and play the Yankees, they should seriously consider getting Haeger on the WS roster.
- Much was made during the telecast of the way that Jason Varitek moves at the last minute to keep the location of the pitch a secret until it is delivered. But one question comes to mind about that after watching him. When he moves, it's a very noticeable jump either outside or inside. Wouldn't most batters see that in their peripheral vision? One other question that people with more knowledge than this Fan might know: With such a late jerky move that occurs during the pitcher's wind up, wouldn't that make it just that much harder for the hurler to find his target?
- Gardner is missed on the Yankees. He does a lot of little things that help the team and his absence makes Melky play more often and Melky is better in shorter doses.
- The Fan is getting seriously tired of Swisher. And geez, man, get a new batting helmet. That Manny Ramirez look-a-like with all the pine tar on it is gross. One of these days, a lizard is going to crawl in that ooze and die and the fossil will be found a thousand years from now.
- A bad-hipped A-Rod is still a lot better player than most of his peers.
- Rocco Baldelli had a good game. You have to root for him. You just have to.
- And finally, in a "Duh" comment, the Yankees look better than the Red Sox these days for the first time in a very long time.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Game Picks - Sunday: August 23, 2009
Yesterday could have been a disaster. The Yankees lost big time. The Angels beat the Blue Jays (what was this picker thinking on that one?). The Dodgers beat the Cubs (ditto). And the Pirates beat the Reds. So before this picker could blink, he was down 0-5. But the later games rallied and the final results were at least almost even. The results could have climbed over .500 but Jim Leyland decided he didn't want to win his game against Oakland and put Zack Minor in the game in the ninth. Yeah, like that was going to work. NOT.
Perhaps Sunday will be better. At least it's the start of a new week:
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 53-43
Month: 151-137
Perhaps Sunday will be better. At least it's the start of a new week:
- The Mariners over the Indians: King Felix should take care of this one against Carmona.
- The Blue Jays over the Angels: Like Romero over Bell, but of course, the Fan is crazy.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Pedro versus Oliver Perez. Ick.
- The Pirates over the Reds: The Pirates have won six in a row. Please make it seven.
- The Nationals over the Brewers: This pick shows how little faith the Fan has in Parra.
- The Marlins over the Braves: Nolasco over Lowe. Lowe can win those if he gets these Marlins to chase.
- The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Things haven't been good for Texas in this series. Perhaps Feldman can save it.
- The Astros over the Diamondbacks: The Stros have taken the first two and Norris has been pretty good so far.
- The White Sox over the Orioles: Buehrle should beat Berken.
- The Royals over the Twins: Just can't bring the will to pick Pavano to win. Just can't do it.
- The Rockies over the Giants: Best match up of the day with Jiminez versus Lincecum. Predicting that the Rockies can scratch out a run or two while the Giants can't.
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Smoltz goes out and proves that it is much easier to pitch in the National League.
- The Tigers over the Athletics: If Porcello can't beat Tomko, there is something wrong in the world.
- The Dodgers over the Cubs: Billingsley as the Cubs' season continues to go with the Dempster.
- The Yankees over the Red Sox: This had better be the brilliant Sabathia and not just the so-so Sabathia because you know Beckett will be good.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 53-43
Month: 151-137
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Game Picks - Saturday: August 22, 2009
It's hard to tell which looked worse, this pickers results sheet or Brad Penny's pitching line. The Mets won. The Padres beat the Cardinals (told you that Richard was good). The Orioles beat the White Sox. The Dodgers beat the Cubs (again). The Twins confounded (again). It was just a humbling night. But like the Red Sox, you can get drubbed the first night and still today is a new day.
So on with today's picks because the Fan has a show today in Houlton and has to get moving:
Enjoy your weekend!
Yesterday: 5-10 Doh!
Week: 46-35
Month: 144-129
So on with today's picks because the Fan has a show today in Houlton and has to get moving:
- The Blue Jays over the Angels: This Richmond kid looks good. And hey, the Blue Jays can actually win two games in a row.
- The Cubs over the Dodgers: Ted Lilly versus some kid named Haeger.
- The Yankees over the Red Sox: Burnett over Tanzawa.
- The Reds over the Pirates: Lehr versus Zack Duke. The Pirates never score for Duke.
- The Nationals over the Brewers: Lannon is superior to Burns. Both teams hit equally well.
- The Astros over the Diamondbacks: Heck, Moehler has to throw a good game once in a while.
- The Mariners over the Indians: This Fister kid (with the unfortunate name) has been really good.
- The White Sox over the Orioles: Danks should win this game against Hernandez.
- The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Good match up of Hunter versus Garza.
- The Braves over the Marlins: Like Hanson over Volstad.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Happ versus Tim Redding. Yeesh.
- The Twins over the Royals: The Twins are doing it to the Fan again. They just are.
- The Rockies over the Giants: De La Rosa versus some kid named Martinez.
- The Tigers over the A's: Galarraga versus Cahill. Going with the better team.
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Chris Carpenter puts the universe back in order.
Enjoy your weekend!
Yesterday: 5-10 Doh!
Week: 46-35
Month: 144-129
Ryan Howard Versus Prince Fielder Revisited
Heading into Friday night's games, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder have posted the following statistics:
Player A: 32 homers, .599 Slugging Percentage, 1.019 OPS. .995 Fielding Percentage, 9.37 RF/9.
Player B: 32 homers, .553 Slugging Percentage, .903 OPS, .991 Fielding Percentage, 8.98 RF/9.
Which player is Howard and which one is Fielder? You may be surprised that Player A is Prince Fielder. The Fan wrote about these two way back in February and it was fun comparing the two. The comparison covered the previous three years and Howard beat Fielder in almost every category over those three years.
But the Fan also pointed out that Howard was 29 and Fielder 24 and showed that PECOTA predicted that Howard would have Fielder beat for one more year then Fielder would eclipse the Phillies' slugger. It appears that the prediction was off by a year.
Don't get the Fan wrong. Ryan Howard is a force and a tremendous slugger in the middle of the Phillies' line up. His batting average is up from a year ago (.268 from .251) as is his On Base Percentage. But his walk ratio is down from 11.5% of his Plate Appearances to 10% this year. On the positive side, his strikeout to At Bat ratio is down from almost 33% to 28%.
But Fielder is having the far better year. His average is up 31 points (.307). His On Base Percentage is way up (.416) and his Slugging Percentage you already know. His walk to Plate Appearance average is 14.7% which is up from 12.1% from last year. And at the moment, he's much cheaper than Howard.
It looks like the lumbering first base award goes to Fielder who has eclipsed the big man in Philadelphia.
Player A: 32 homers, .599 Slugging Percentage, 1.019 OPS. .995 Fielding Percentage, 9.37 RF/9.
Player B: 32 homers, .553 Slugging Percentage, .903 OPS, .991 Fielding Percentage, 8.98 RF/9.
Which player is Howard and which one is Fielder? You may be surprised that Player A is Prince Fielder. The Fan wrote about these two way back in February and it was fun comparing the two. The comparison covered the previous three years and Howard beat Fielder in almost every category over those three years.
But the Fan also pointed out that Howard was 29 and Fielder 24 and showed that PECOTA predicted that Howard would have Fielder beat for one more year then Fielder would eclipse the Phillies' slugger. It appears that the prediction was off by a year.
Don't get the Fan wrong. Ryan Howard is a force and a tremendous slugger in the middle of the Phillies' line up. His batting average is up from a year ago (.268 from .251) as is his On Base Percentage. But his walk ratio is down from 11.5% of his Plate Appearances to 10% this year. On the positive side, his strikeout to At Bat ratio is down from almost 33% to 28%.
But Fielder is having the far better year. His average is up 31 points (.307). His On Base Percentage is way up (.416) and his Slugging Percentage you already know. His walk to Plate Appearance average is 14.7% which is up from 12.1% from last year. And at the moment, he's much cheaper than Howard.
It looks like the lumbering first base award goes to Fielder who has eclipsed the big man in Philadelphia.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Game Picks - Friday: August 21, 2009
Another so-so evening as most of the games this picker worried about proved problematic. The Cubs just aren't very good. The Bay Rays' bullpen blew another game. The Giants and Reds couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag and one of them had to win a close, low-scoring game and the wrong team did. Johan Santana lost. Add all those things up and you have a .500 day picking games. Hope you did better if you are following along.
It's dark here this morning. It's almost nine o'clock and it feels like eight in the evening. To use that as a metaphor, the Fan will now glance through the dark and try to find some illumination for these next fifteen picks:
Yesterday: 6-6
Week: 41-25
Month: 139-119
It's dark here this morning. It's almost nine o'clock and it feels like eight in the evening. To use that as a metaphor, the Fan will now glance through the dark and try to find some illumination for these next fifteen picks:
- The Reds over the Pirates: Micah Owings is back. So is this Fan's interest in him.
- The Brewers over the Nationals: The Brewers have looked like the Nationals lately and vice versa.
- The Mariners over the Indians: Too bad the Indians waited this long to play this well. But the Fan likes French in this game.
- The Angels over the Blue Jays: Two rookie pitchers. When that happens, go with the better team.
- The Phillies over the Mets: Cole Hamels should beat Bats in his Pelfrey.
- The Yankees over the Red Sox: Pettitte versus Brad Penny. Tough pick to call.
- The Braves over the Marlins: Got to go with Vazquez over Sanchez, who is once again coming off the disabled list.
- The Rangers over the Bay Rays: The Rangers just seem to want it more than these current Bay Rays.
- The Astros over the Diamondbacks: Like Oswalt over Petit.
- The Royals over the Twins: Hochever has been better than Blackburn. The Twins are missing Morneau.
- The White Sox over the Orioles: Told you that the Fan was never picking Guthrie again.
- The Rockies over the Giants: Cook should shut down that anemic line up
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Like this kid, Richard, but the Cardinals are so much better as a team.
- The Tigers over the Athletics: Jackson should win this one.
- The Cubs over the Dodgers: There the Fan goes again, picking the Cubs. But they never lose when Wells is pitching.
Yesterday: 6-6
Week: 41-25
Month: 139-119
So Long, Livan
Livan Hernandez lost his job with the Mets on Thursday as the team activated former ace closer, Billy Wagner. And the weird thing about the news is that this writer is sad. Livan had become an event, a fine point of interest. No longer can we ponder if the pitcher will confound us with an unexpected gem of an outing or if he will be Livan, the batting practice pitcher. It was entertaining. But the truth of it is, the Mets probably got rid of the wrong pitcher.
The Mets dumped Livan after three bad starts in a row, but they kept Tim Redding, who will make a spot start to take Livan's place. Don't know about you, but that doesn't seem like a fair trade, even if you are going to see Livan take his lumps now and then. Let's compare the two pitchers:
Granted, neither one of them is fun for a manager, but it seems clear to this observer that if you have to get rid of somebody, that somebody would be the least effective guy. Redding has been considerably worse that Eisler Livan Carrera Hernandez.
The thing about Livan--and this is what made him so entertaining--is that he could be pretty amazing or he could be amazingly awful. In his seven wins, he had an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 1.286. In his eight losses, his ERA was 10.21 with a WHIP of 2.319. Whoa! That's a lot of base runners. The point is that occasionally, he could be pretty good and was so seven times. Tim Redding can't give you that. He's never going to give you a good outing. Never. Ever.
But just you watch. Livan won't be dead yet. He will resurface somewhere. Some contender that is thin in starting pitching might pick him up and hope that he can throw a couple of good games in there. The Fan can see him in Los Angeles where he would be better than Jeff Weaver. The Fan can see him in Minnesota where he would be at least as good as Carl Pavano. No. Livan is not dead yet and thank goodness, we haven't seen the last of him.
The other side of this story is Billy Wagner. Wagner was supposed to miss the entire season with his surgery last August. But apparently he heals quickly and here he is. Yeah, he's 38 years old, but at 37 last year and with a dead arm, he still struck out 10 batters for every 9 innings. He pitched Thursday night. One inning, no hits, two strikeouts. But the Mets can't get rid of him fast enough. Jerry Manuel even said that he was going to "showcase" him for an inning and he did. Those were pretty good results. Hey, the Cubbies could use a closer. So could the Marlins. The Mets would have to eat the money, but hey, the guy looks like he can still pitch. 385 career saves anyone?
So, yeah, it was mixed emotions. It was good to see Billy Wagner. But the Fan is going to miss Livan. Long Live Livan! Hope somebody else picks him up so the entertainment can continue.
The Mets dumped Livan after three bad starts in a row, but they kept Tim Redding, who will make a spot start to take Livan's place. Don't know about you, but that doesn't seem like a fair trade, even if you are going to see Livan take his lumps now and then. Let's compare the two pitchers:
- Livan Hernandez: 7-8. 5.47 ERA in 23 starts. His 135 innings gave him an average of 5.87 innings per start. He had a WHIP of 1.593 and gave up 1.1 homers per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio was 1.47 and he had an ERA+ of 78.
- Tim Redding: 1-4. 6.53 ERA in 9 starts and 13 relief appearances. His 9 starts averaged 5.24 innings per start. He has a WHIP of 1.647 and has given up 1.4 homers per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ration is 1.45 and has an ERA+ of 65.
Granted, neither one of them is fun for a manager, but it seems clear to this observer that if you have to get rid of somebody, that somebody would be the least effective guy. Redding has been considerably worse that Eisler Livan Carrera Hernandez.
The thing about Livan--and this is what made him so entertaining--is that he could be pretty amazing or he could be amazingly awful. In his seven wins, he had an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 1.286. In his eight losses, his ERA was 10.21 with a WHIP of 2.319. Whoa! That's a lot of base runners. The point is that occasionally, he could be pretty good and was so seven times. Tim Redding can't give you that. He's never going to give you a good outing. Never. Ever.
But just you watch. Livan won't be dead yet. He will resurface somewhere. Some contender that is thin in starting pitching might pick him up and hope that he can throw a couple of good games in there. The Fan can see him in Los Angeles where he would be better than Jeff Weaver. The Fan can see him in Minnesota where he would be at least as good as Carl Pavano. No. Livan is not dead yet and thank goodness, we haven't seen the last of him.
The other side of this story is Billy Wagner. Wagner was supposed to miss the entire season with his surgery last August. But apparently he heals quickly and here he is. Yeah, he's 38 years old, but at 37 last year and with a dead arm, he still struck out 10 batters for every 9 innings. He pitched Thursday night. One inning, no hits, two strikeouts. But the Mets can't get rid of him fast enough. Jerry Manuel even said that he was going to "showcase" him for an inning and he did. Those were pretty good results. Hey, the Cubbies could use a closer. So could the Marlins. The Mets would have to eat the money, but hey, the guy looks like he can still pitch. 385 career saves anyone?
So, yeah, it was mixed emotions. It was good to see Billy Wagner. But the Fan is going to miss Livan. Long Live Livan! Hope somebody else picks him up so the entertainment can continue.
Wonder What Halladay Is Thinking
Do you think Roy Halladay is a "what if" kind of guy? Do you think he ponders what it would be like if he was pitching for the Phillies right now instead of Cliff Lee? Lee is doing his Sabathia impression as he is now 4-0 with his new team with an ERA lower than one. That could have been Halladay.
And the thing is, the Phillies will have an exciting October. Lee will be having the time of his life as he rides the roller coaster of fan hysteria and overall excitement. Halladay, meanwhile, will be toiling in vain to a half-empty Skydome. Halladay has a real shot at a Cy Young, but that is small consolation for a pitcher who could be ruling the universe like Lee is now.
Halladay is a much better pitcher than Lee. And it seems apparent that it is easier to pitch in the National League than in the American League, especially since half of Halladay's games come against the AL East--the cell phone equivalent of a dead zone for pitchers. That could be Halladay with the Phillies getting high fives from Howard and the gang. It could have been Halladay's shot at the sun and the acclaim he so richly deserves.
Do you think Halladay is thinking that could have been him? Is he that kind of guy? The Fan was rooting for Halladay to stay with the Blue Jays for their fans' sake. But now the Fan is just feeling bad for the guy.
And the thing is, the Phillies will have an exciting October. Lee will be having the time of his life as he rides the roller coaster of fan hysteria and overall excitement. Halladay, meanwhile, will be toiling in vain to a half-empty Skydome. Halladay has a real shot at a Cy Young, but that is small consolation for a pitcher who could be ruling the universe like Lee is now.
Halladay is a much better pitcher than Lee. And it seems apparent that it is easier to pitch in the National League than in the American League, especially since half of Halladay's games come against the AL East--the cell phone equivalent of a dead zone for pitchers. That could be Halladay with the Phillies getting high fives from Howard and the gang. It could have been Halladay's shot at the sun and the acclaim he so richly deserves.
Do you think Halladay is thinking that could have been him? Is he that kind of guy? The Fan was rooting for Halladay to stay with the Blue Jays for their fans' sake. But now the Fan is just feeling bad for the guy.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
A Closer Should Never Win a Cy Young Award
There has again been the usual rumblings around the blogsphere about Mariano Rivera as a Cy Young candidate. Posts such as this one tout his ERA and his K/BB ratios, etc. Anyone who knows the Fan knows that Mo is one of his favorite players. The class of the guy and his unusual success over the years with one pitch has earned the respect and a place some day at Cooperstown. But he should never win the Cy Young award, no matter how good he does.
Many experts out there denigrate the value of a closer. Many say that any good starter could be a good closer. Many also say that the Save is a bogus statistic and that guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are artificial heroes because of the bogus stat. The Fan doesn't buy it and those that propose that sort of thinking don't understand that the nature of the game has changed. Pitchers no longer finish 25 to 35 games a season like they did in the past. Starters are expected to pitch to the sixth or seventh and the bullpen takes over. That is today's game. And not accepting that fact takes away from what the closer does. Just ask the Indians how important a closer is. But a closer should not win a Cy Young award.
The Yankees have a .606 OPS against them in save situations. The Blue Jays sit at .806. You don't think that has a big factor in their respective places in the standings? The expectation of guys like Rivera and Eckersley and Gossage at his peak is that the game becomes a seven inning game. You had better be winning or at least tied by then because if you were behind, it was over. There is no overstating the fact that a closer like Rivera is a devastating weapon for the Yankees just like Eckersley was at his closing peak. But they still should win Cy Young awards.
The simple fact of the matter is that they usually pitch an inning. Again, the Fan fully believes in the importance of a good closer and that the Save is a valid statistic. But it's still only one inning out of nine. The starter has to go seven of the nine. There is no comparison of the value there. Either it's a seven of nine effect on a game or a one of nine. The math doesn't ever make sense for a closer and Cy Young. A closer will pitch 70 innings a year. A starter will pitch over 200. A closer will throw 1400 pitches a season. A starter will throw over 4000. No matter how you look at the math, the closer never comes close in value.
The AL Cy Young contenders are Halladay (the leader right now), Greinke and probably Jackson. But don't put Rivera in there. He's great, perhaps the greatest closer ever. But he shouldn't ever be in the thinking process for Cy Young.
Many experts out there denigrate the value of a closer. Many say that any good starter could be a good closer. Many also say that the Save is a bogus statistic and that guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are artificial heroes because of the bogus stat. The Fan doesn't buy it and those that propose that sort of thinking don't understand that the nature of the game has changed. Pitchers no longer finish 25 to 35 games a season like they did in the past. Starters are expected to pitch to the sixth or seventh and the bullpen takes over. That is today's game. And not accepting that fact takes away from what the closer does. Just ask the Indians how important a closer is. But a closer should not win a Cy Young award.
The Yankees have a .606 OPS against them in save situations. The Blue Jays sit at .806. You don't think that has a big factor in their respective places in the standings? The expectation of guys like Rivera and Eckersley and Gossage at his peak is that the game becomes a seven inning game. You had better be winning or at least tied by then because if you were behind, it was over. There is no overstating the fact that a closer like Rivera is a devastating weapon for the Yankees just like Eckersley was at his closing peak. But they still should win Cy Young awards.
The simple fact of the matter is that they usually pitch an inning. Again, the Fan fully believes in the importance of a good closer and that the Save is a valid statistic. But it's still only one inning out of nine. The starter has to go seven of the nine. There is no comparison of the value there. Either it's a seven of nine effect on a game or a one of nine. The math doesn't ever make sense for a closer and Cy Young. A closer will pitch 70 innings a year. A starter will pitch over 200. A closer will throw 1400 pitches a season. A starter will throw over 4000. No matter how you look at the math, the closer never comes close in value.
The AL Cy Young contenders are Halladay (the leader right now), Greinke and probably Jackson. But don't put Rivera in there. He's great, perhaps the greatest closer ever. But he shouldn't ever be in the thinking process for Cy Young.
Game Picks - Thursday: August 20, 2009
Last night was a little bit of a grounding for the game picker. After a really hot stretch of picks, a fall to earth was expected. Not wanted, mind you. But expected. This picker certainly didn't expect the Yankees to win on a night that Gaudin starts, but the guy hung in there and kept his team in the game. The Royals were a stupid and giddy pick. A great game from Maholm is an acceptable reason to be wrong since it was a good pitchers match up. But man, Halladay never loses for this picker. What happened?
But again, life is about perspective. As the Fan types this, there is a hummingbird at the feeder, the sun is shining and tonight is golf league night. Can't get a better day than that.
There are twelve games today, which is pretty good for a Thursday. So let's see what kind of trouble we can get into:
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 35-19
Month: 133-113
But again, life is about perspective. As the Fan types this, there is a hummingbird at the feeder, the sun is shining and tonight is golf league night. Can't get a better day than that.
There are twelve games today, which is pretty good for a Thursday. So let's see what kind of trouble we can get into:
- The Giants over the Reds: Matt Cain is pitching against Harang, who seems to be starting to figure it out again. Tough call.
- The Tigers over the Mariners: Washburn goes against his former team, who are lefty heavy which should help him.
- The Phillies over the Diamondbacks: Blanton over Davis. Blanton is much more talented as are the Phillies.
- The Nationals over the Rockies: Really like this Mock kid. Probably too much so, but what the heck.
- The Angels over the Indians: This pick is fraught with dangers. The Indians usually love guys like Lackey but Masterson has not been very good either.
- The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Guess it was a fantasy that the Red Sox might not make the wild card.
- The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Simply because the Bay Rays still think they have a shot. They probably don't.
- The Mets over the Braves: Johan Santana should beat Kawakami. But that word, "should," has bit deeply so often, the Fan has scars.
- The Astros over the Marlins: Ack! Two of the Fan's favorite pitchers, Wandy versus Josh Johnson. What to do??
- The Rangers over the Twins: The Twins were just playing with the Fan to let him get two right. We are back now on our regular habit of getting the Twins pick wrong.
- The Cardinals over the Padres: One of the few picks that should be a lock.
- The Cubs over the Dodgers: Oh yeah, this is a fun pick. NOT. Gorzelanny versus Jeff Weaver? Ugh.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 35-19
Month: 133-113
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
So Stephen Strasburg Signed
The story has to be good when it has a perfectly alliterative headline, right? After days of speculation and negative reports to the contrary, the Nationals and Scott Boras got a deal done right before the deadline and the Nationals landed their prized pitcher. The signing prevents Strasburg from joining the likes of J. D. Drew, who sat out a while after his selection and it prevents the Nationals' fans from losing hope.
Of course, any prospect is a crap shoot. No matter how highly touted they come, they can fall just as easily as they can succeed. Just ask the Royals who demoted Alex Gordan to the minors this week. As such, it is impossible to understand why any top round draft pick wouldn't sign. Three first rounders didn't before the deadline. Aaron Crowe didn't get a deal done with the Royals, but he is no longer college eligible, so he has until next year's draft to get a deal. But still, he is losing time that he can never get back, which makes no sense at all.
Matt Purke, a high school senior, turned down the Rangers' final offer and will go off to college to while away two years until he can enter the draft again. Reportedly, he turned down a four million dollar signing bonus. What!? Is he nuts? There is no guarantee that he will do well in college and get close to this highly drafted again. There is no guarantee that he will be an effective major leaguer. And so he turns down a guaranteed $4 million that he doesn't even have to earn? Crazy.
The same can be said for LeVon Washington who must now toil away in junior college for two years until he can enter the draft again. The Bay Rays cut off negotiations with Boras concerning Washington earlier in the day of the deadline. Washington should have shot Boras after a deal didn't get done. But what's a couple of million dollars among friends?
If Strasburg had gone the same route, it would have been a colossal blunder and the pitcher had nothing to gain by not signing on the dotted line. As it is, the pitcher has lost two months as negotiations meandered around and if he had signed early, he might have even been seen in the majors this year. There is no way he will now.
But at least the deal is done and the Nationals and its fans have something to dream about. Strasburg is no guaranteed success, but if he turns out half as good as projected, the Nationals will have a good horse to build a team around.
Of course, any prospect is a crap shoot. No matter how highly touted they come, they can fall just as easily as they can succeed. Just ask the Royals who demoted Alex Gordan to the minors this week. As such, it is impossible to understand why any top round draft pick wouldn't sign. Three first rounders didn't before the deadline. Aaron Crowe didn't get a deal done with the Royals, but he is no longer college eligible, so he has until next year's draft to get a deal. But still, he is losing time that he can never get back, which makes no sense at all.
Matt Purke, a high school senior, turned down the Rangers' final offer and will go off to college to while away two years until he can enter the draft again. Reportedly, he turned down a four million dollar signing bonus. What!? Is he nuts? There is no guarantee that he will do well in college and get close to this highly drafted again. There is no guarantee that he will be an effective major leaguer. And so he turns down a guaranteed $4 million that he doesn't even have to earn? Crazy.
The same can be said for LeVon Washington who must now toil away in junior college for two years until he can enter the draft again. The Bay Rays cut off negotiations with Boras concerning Washington earlier in the day of the deadline. Washington should have shot Boras after a deal didn't get done. But what's a couple of million dollars among friends?
If Strasburg had gone the same route, it would have been a colossal blunder and the pitcher had nothing to gain by not signing on the dotted line. As it is, the pitcher has lost two months as negotiations meandered around and if he had signed early, he might have even been seen in the majors this year. There is no way he will now.
But at least the deal is done and the Nationals and its fans have something to dream about. Strasburg is no guaranteed success, but if he turns out half as good as projected, the Nationals will have a good horse to build a team around.
Game Picks - Wednesday: August 19, 2009
Another good night for this picker as the correct picks doubled the incorrect ones. Really thought Feldman was going to win, especially early on in that contest, but he hung too many breaking balls. The rain kept Pedro from pitching much in his game, which might have turned out differently if he had stayed in there. But let's here it for Moyer who pitched great in relief and got the win. Plus, it continues to be difficult to believe the Cubs are this bad or that the Angels are this good.
But overall, any night you predict Kansas City and the Pirates to win and they do, it's a good night. Speaking of Pittsburgh, how about that Ohlendorf? Wow, huh?
Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 28-11
Month: 126-105
But overall, any night you predict Kansas City and the Pirates to win and they do, it's a good night. Speaking of Pittsburgh, how about that Ohlendorf? Wow, huh?
- The Royals over the White Sox: Can the Royals win two in a row? Can Greinke pitch a good game and get a win?
- The Brewers over the Pirates: Like Maholm. But like Gallardo and the Brewers' offense better.
- The Phillies over the Diamondbacks: Lee versus Haran. Normally would pick Haran, but Lee has been lights out so far in the National League.
- The Rockies over the Nationals: Marquis!
- The Angels over the Indians: Jared Weaver pitched more like his brother last time out. Looking for him to bounce back in this game.
- The Tigers over the Mariners: The Mariners won't catch up to Verlander's fastball.
- The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Halladay!
- The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Niemann over Tillman. Good team over bad team.
- The Reds over the Giants: The two worst offenses in baseball continue to "slug" it out. Add to that drama, two "crafty" pitchers in Zito and Arroyo.
- The Braves over the Mets: The Braves should be better than they are playing. But they just can't seem to get over the hump.
- The Marlins over the Astros: No faith in Sean West, but have no idea who Baczardo is.
- The Rangers over the Twins: This game is impossible to be sure about. Home Run Baker versus Millwood.
- The Cubs over the Padres: Because the Fan still can't accept that the Cubs are this bad.
- The Athletics over the Yankees: The upset pick of the day since Gaudin is starting for the Yanks.
- The Cardinals over the Dodgers: This NLCS preview features Wainwright versus Kershaw.
Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 28-11
Month: 126-105
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Game Picks - Tuesday: August 18, 2009
Yikes! Got to working in the basement and totally forgot about the game picks! Oops. Well, it's a good thing the brain kicked in because this picker has been on a hot streak.
So without any further blather, let's get to the picks before it's too late:
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 18-6
Month: 116-100
So without any further blather, let's get to the picks before it's too late:
- The Pirates over the Brewers: Crazy man, Ohlendorf is pitching.
- The Diamondbacks over the Phillies: Just not confident in Pedro...
- The Rockies over the Nationals: Jiminez and his big fastball should win this one.
- The Indians over the Angels: Carmona is probably a stupid pick, but this Fan has no idea who this Bell is that the Angels are pitching.
- The Tigers over the Mariners: King Felix versus Porcello. Going with the upset here.
- The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Beckett is Cy Young this year.
- The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Price feels like a better pick than Berken.
- The Giants over the Reds: The two worst offenses in the league. But the Giants have Lincecum.
- The Braves over the Mets: Lowe should take care of the Mets while Oliver Perez is still walking a man an inning.
- The Marlins over the Astros: Can't figure Nolasco out. Terrible, great, terrible. Hoping for great.
- The Rangers over the Twins: Feldman versus Pavano. Yeah. This one looks good.
- The Royals over the White Sox: Gil (ga) Meche is much better than Freddie Garcia.
- The Cubs over the Padres: Dempster over Carrillo. The Cubs are pretty much done though.
- The Yankees over the A's: Sabathia!
- The Dodgers over the Cardinals: Billingsley over Boggs.
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 18-6
Month: 116-100
Who Is the Worst Team in the Majors Right Now?
It's easy to ponder the best teams in baseball. The arguments would center around the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Cardinals and the Phillies (and maybe the Angels). But it's a whole other ball of wax to figure out the worst team in the majors.
First, let's pick our contenders: Washington, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Cleveland and Baltimore. Let's look at a few key ratings and see where we end up.
Pitching
The Indians have the worst staff ERA followed by the Orioles and the Nationals. But if you factor in ball parks, fielding and the like, you have a different statistic called ERA+ which is probably a better indicator of a pitching staff. If you go by ERA+, the Padres are the clear leader...err...loser. Their staff ERA+ of 80 is by far the worst in the majors. The Nationals are second worst at 86, but that six points are a lot higher. The Brewers are at 88 and three teams sit at 89 including the Pirates and Indians.
The Nationals and the Indians have the worst bullpens when it comes to save percentage and inherited runners scoring. The Pirates have the best starting pitching of the bunch and the most "tough losses" or games in which the starting pitcher pitched well but did not get the win or a decision.
ERA+ for our contenders: Pirates (89), Nationals (86), Padres (80), Indians (89), Kansas City (93), Oakland (92), Orioles (90).
Batting
The Reds (who maybe should have been in this argument) have the worst OPS+ in the majors with a whopping score of 79. The Giants are second worst at 81. The Royals are at 88 and the Pirates at 90.
OPS+ of our contenders: Pirates (90), Royals (88), Padres (94), Athletics (92), Orioles (93), Indians (99), Nationals (99)
Fielding
Ranking fielding is almost counting against (or for) a team twice since ERA+ does account some for fielding. But for our purposes, we will count it separately. And since ERA+ and OPS+ are based on 100 (with 100 being average), we'll convert (for easy math) the fielding percentage to a hundred type score to go along with the others.
Pirates (98.8), Royals (98.0), Padres (98.5), Athletics (98.4), Orioles (98.4), Indians (98.6), Nationals (97.7).
Two comments there: First, the Pirates traded away most of the players that were responsible for this fielding percentage. Second, the Nationals are clearly the worst fielding percentage team of the contenders with the Royals second.
A different fielding statistic is Defensive Efficiency which measures balls in play converted to outs. All of our contenders are in the bottom third of teams when it comes to Defensive Efficiency. The Royals are dead last out of all the teams in the majors in this category and the Orioles are third from the bottom. Somewhat surprising, the next to last team in Defensive Efficiency? The Red Sox.
Team Record the Last Three Months
Some teams of our contenders started really poorly and others started really well. What the Fan wants to consider here is how they have played once the season was well under way to even the playing field a bit:
Orioles: 25-41 (.378)
Indians: 29-36 (.446)
Royals: 23-44 (.343)
Athletics: 33-36 (.478)
Pirates: 24-42 (.363)
Padres: 24-45 (.348)
Nationals: 29-39 (.426)
Blow Out Games
Measuring blow out games gives us some indication of how often the team has imploded or exploded.
Orioles: 13-19 (.406)
Indians: 16-15 (.516)
Royals: 14-30 (.318)
Athletics: 17-18 (.476)
Pirates: 14-19 (.424)
Padres: 6-27 (.182)
Nationals: 11-20 (.355)
One Run Games
How do our contenders fare in the tight games?
Orioles: 12-15 (.444)
Indians: 16-14 (.533)
Royals: 11-17 (.393)
Athletics: 12-18 (.400)
Pirates: 8-18 (.308)
Padres: 16-16 (.500)
Nationals: 13-17 (.433)
Conclusion
Okay, what have we come up with? The Indians are the best hitters of the bunch and decent fielders. They are in the middle of this pack in ERA+. They play well in tight games and have more blowouts in their favor than against. We can rule them out. The Nationals are right up there with the Indians on offense but don't field well or pitch well. Their bullpen is the worst in the majors. But they have played reasonably well in close games and over the last three months have the second best record of our contenders. We can rule them out. The Orioles are in the middle of the pack in all of our categories except for fielding where they are terrible. But we can rule them out because of the middle of the pack thing.
The Pirates are hard to consider since they aren't the same team that started the season. More than half of the opening day starting lineup have been traded away. As such, they have the third worst record the last three months and are terrible in close games. But they are not at the bottom of the pack in any other category, so we have to give them a pass. The A's are not bad (for this bunch) at the plate or on the mound. Their fielding isn't great (with the likes of Cust and Giambi lumbering around for most of the year). Their record in the last three months in comparison with the rest and their ability to win almost as many blowouts as they lose gives them an out card.
That leaves us with the Padres and the Royals. The Padres are clearly the worst pitching team in the league. Their OPS+ isn't bad with these contenders and they fare well in close games. But they have been blown out 21 more times than they blew out other teams. And they have fared really poorly the last three months.
The Royals are the worst hitting team of the bunch and the worst fielders. Their starters are mostly better than some of these other teams (thanks to Greinke). But their bullpen has been awful. They have the worst record the last three months. They are terrible in close games and get blown out way more often than they blow out the other teams.
Folks, your winner and the honor of the worst team in the major leagues goes to the Kansas City Royals. You are not really surprised are you?
First, let's pick our contenders: Washington, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Cleveland and Baltimore. Let's look at a few key ratings and see where we end up.
Pitching
The Indians have the worst staff ERA followed by the Orioles and the Nationals. But if you factor in ball parks, fielding and the like, you have a different statistic called ERA+ which is probably a better indicator of a pitching staff. If you go by ERA+, the Padres are the clear leader...err...loser. Their staff ERA+ of 80 is by far the worst in the majors. The Nationals are second worst at 86, but that six points are a lot higher. The Brewers are at 88 and three teams sit at 89 including the Pirates and Indians.
The Nationals and the Indians have the worst bullpens when it comes to save percentage and inherited runners scoring. The Pirates have the best starting pitching of the bunch and the most "tough losses" or games in which the starting pitcher pitched well but did not get the win or a decision.
ERA+ for our contenders: Pirates (89), Nationals (86), Padres (80), Indians (89), Kansas City (93), Oakland (92), Orioles (90).
Batting
The Reds (who maybe should have been in this argument) have the worst OPS+ in the majors with a whopping score of 79. The Giants are second worst at 81. The Royals are at 88 and the Pirates at 90.
OPS+ of our contenders: Pirates (90), Royals (88), Padres (94), Athletics (92), Orioles (93), Indians (99), Nationals (99)
Fielding
Ranking fielding is almost counting against (or for) a team twice since ERA+ does account some for fielding. But for our purposes, we will count it separately. And since ERA+ and OPS+ are based on 100 (with 100 being average), we'll convert (for easy math) the fielding percentage to a hundred type score to go along with the others.
Pirates (98.8), Royals (98.0), Padres (98.5), Athletics (98.4), Orioles (98.4), Indians (98.6), Nationals (97.7).
Two comments there: First, the Pirates traded away most of the players that were responsible for this fielding percentage. Second, the Nationals are clearly the worst fielding percentage team of the contenders with the Royals second.
A different fielding statistic is Defensive Efficiency which measures balls in play converted to outs. All of our contenders are in the bottom third of teams when it comes to Defensive Efficiency. The Royals are dead last out of all the teams in the majors in this category and the Orioles are third from the bottom. Somewhat surprising, the next to last team in Defensive Efficiency? The Red Sox.
Team Record the Last Three Months
Some teams of our contenders started really poorly and others started really well. What the Fan wants to consider here is how they have played once the season was well under way to even the playing field a bit:
Orioles: 25-41 (.378)
Indians: 29-36 (.446)
Royals: 23-44 (.343)
Athletics: 33-36 (.478)
Pirates: 24-42 (.363)
Padres: 24-45 (.348)
Nationals: 29-39 (.426)
Blow Out Games
Measuring blow out games gives us some indication of how often the team has imploded or exploded.
Orioles: 13-19 (.406)
Indians: 16-15 (.516)
Royals: 14-30 (.318)
Athletics: 17-18 (.476)
Pirates: 14-19 (.424)
Padres: 6-27 (.182)
Nationals: 11-20 (.355)
One Run Games
How do our contenders fare in the tight games?
Orioles: 12-15 (.444)
Indians: 16-14 (.533)
Royals: 11-17 (.393)
Athletics: 12-18 (.400)
Pirates: 8-18 (.308)
Padres: 16-16 (.500)
Nationals: 13-17 (.433)
Conclusion
Okay, what have we come up with? The Indians are the best hitters of the bunch and decent fielders. They are in the middle of this pack in ERA+. They play well in tight games and have more blowouts in their favor than against. We can rule them out. The Nationals are right up there with the Indians on offense but don't field well or pitch well. Their bullpen is the worst in the majors. But they have played reasonably well in close games and over the last three months have the second best record of our contenders. We can rule them out. The Orioles are in the middle of the pack in all of our categories except for fielding where they are terrible. But we can rule them out because of the middle of the pack thing.
The Pirates are hard to consider since they aren't the same team that started the season. More than half of the opening day starting lineup have been traded away. As such, they have the third worst record the last three months and are terrible in close games. But they are not at the bottom of the pack in any other category, so we have to give them a pass. The A's are not bad (for this bunch) at the plate or on the mound. Their fielding isn't great (with the likes of Cust and Giambi lumbering around for most of the year). Their record in the last three months in comparison with the rest and their ability to win almost as many blowouts as they lose gives them an out card.
That leaves us with the Padres and the Royals. The Padres are clearly the worst pitching team in the league. Their OPS+ isn't bad with these contenders and they fare well in close games. But they have been blown out 21 more times than they blew out other teams. And they have fared really poorly the last three months.
The Royals are the worst hitting team of the bunch and the worst fielders. Their starters are mostly better than some of these other teams (thanks to Greinke). But their bullpen has been awful. They have the worst record the last three months. They are terrible in close games and get blown out way more often than they blow out the other teams.
Folks, your winner and the honor of the worst team in the major leagues goes to the Kansas City Royals. You are not really surprised are you?
Monday, August 17, 2009
Game Picks - Monday: August 17, 2009
Well, you can't start a week much better than that. Fifteen games picked (sixteen, but one was rained out) and twelve were correct. The only incorrect picks? The Phillies beating the Braves. The Royals beating the Tigers. Whuh? And the A's beating the White Sox. Cahill threw a good game. It happens.
Short schedule tonight, typical Monday. With only nine games to pick, let's see if the Fan can keep a good thing going:
Yesterday: 12-3
Week: 12-3
Month: 116-100
Short schedule tonight, typical Monday. With only nine games to pick, let's see if the Fan can keep a good thing going:
- The Braves over the Diamondbacks: Two good young pitchers: Hanson versus Scherzer. Going with Hanson and the Braves.
- The Pirates over the Brewers: Another Villanueva start for the Brewers.
- The Angels over the Orioles: The other Santana versus Hernandez. Going with the Angels' offense on this one.
- The Mets over the Giants: This has every earmark for the Mets to lose. Wright, their only healthy and good player is now out too. Livan is starting. But, somehow, the Mets will win.
- The Rangers over the Twins: Two straight correct Twins picks! Can we make it three? Liriano has been better. But the Rangers are on a roll.
- The White Sox over the Royals: Buehrle should beat Bannister, who will make a great coach some day.
- The Cubs over the Padres: Ted Lilly is back. Hope that's a good thing.
- The Yankees over the Athletics: Burnet versus...Brett Tomko??
- The Cardinals over the Dodgers: Chris Carpenter versus a rookie. Got to like those odds.
Yesterday: 12-3
Week: 12-3
Month: 116-100
Joe Torre - Bullpen Killer?
As any reader knows, Joe Torre has long been a Fan favorite. The guy just seems to have more class in his little finger than all managers have in their entire bodies. But he certainly has gained a reputation in recent years for being a bullpen killer. Critics point to the Scott Proctors of the world that litter Torre's past. Guys like Tronsoco on the current Torre team seem to bring new fuel to the Torre reputation. But is it accurate?
Joe Torre has cemented a Hall of Fame career by finding a horse he can ride as the set up guy and his closer. The championships in New York were built that way with Rivera, first as the set up guy and then as the closer. The formula worked. But Torre also seems to have a couple of key other guys that he has faith in and runs them out there as often as possible. If he loses faith in a pitcher, that guy hardly pitches. With Tronsoco this year pitching before his closer in Jonathan Broxton, Torre tries to continue the pattern.
Both guys were brilliant early on and Broxton made the All Star team as a first year closer. At the time, he only had one blown save and an ERA under one. Broxton has now blown five saves and has an ERA over three. Tronsoco has also regressed some since that time. But Broxton has 50 appearances so far and that is right in line with the average for closers (Rivera has 51). The key here though is that this is Broxton's first year at doing this. Perhaps Sherrill should give Broxton a week off or something. Tronsoco has 58 appearances, which is in the top 25 in the league, but not near the top. But again, this is his first year in such a high stress environment.
The top 25 list of appearances would seem to indicate that Torre does not earn his reputation. Only two of his pitchers appear on the list. The Cubs have three on that list. But that's only part of the story. The Dodgers are third in the league in games for relievers behind the Nationals and the Marlins. More importantly, they hold a big lead in the league in relief pitchers getting more than three outs in an outing. The Dodgers have 116 of those. The next closest team has 86. Naturally, they also lead the league in relief pitchers pitching multiple innings.
There are two problems for the Dodgers that lead to this situation. First, their starters--two of which are young and throw a lot of pitches--average the second lowest innings per game in the National League. And yet, they are in the middle of the pack of pitches thrown by starters per game. That means that the relievers have more work to do per game. The Dodgers' relievers have had to record 3.4 innings of relief every game. That's a lot of innings. The second problem is that, yes, Joe Torre will go with a hot hand until the guy's arm falls off.
Just ask Scott Proctor.
Joe Torre has cemented a Hall of Fame career by finding a horse he can ride as the set up guy and his closer. The championships in New York were built that way with Rivera, first as the set up guy and then as the closer. The formula worked. But Torre also seems to have a couple of key other guys that he has faith in and runs them out there as often as possible. If he loses faith in a pitcher, that guy hardly pitches. With Tronsoco this year pitching before his closer in Jonathan Broxton, Torre tries to continue the pattern.
Both guys were brilliant early on and Broxton made the All Star team as a first year closer. At the time, he only had one blown save and an ERA under one. Broxton has now blown five saves and has an ERA over three. Tronsoco has also regressed some since that time. But Broxton has 50 appearances so far and that is right in line with the average for closers (Rivera has 51). The key here though is that this is Broxton's first year at doing this. Perhaps Sherrill should give Broxton a week off or something. Tronsoco has 58 appearances, which is in the top 25 in the league, but not near the top. But again, this is his first year in such a high stress environment.
The top 25 list of appearances would seem to indicate that Torre does not earn his reputation. Only two of his pitchers appear on the list. The Cubs have three on that list. But that's only part of the story. The Dodgers are third in the league in games for relievers behind the Nationals and the Marlins. More importantly, they hold a big lead in the league in relief pitchers getting more than three outs in an outing. The Dodgers have 116 of those. The next closest team has 86. Naturally, they also lead the league in relief pitchers pitching multiple innings.
There are two problems for the Dodgers that lead to this situation. First, their starters--two of which are young and throw a lot of pitches--average the second lowest innings per game in the National League. And yet, they are in the middle of the pack of pitches thrown by starters per game. That means that the relievers have more work to do per game. The Dodgers' relievers have had to record 3.4 innings of relief every game. That's a lot of innings. The second problem is that, yes, Joe Torre will go with a hot hand until the guy's arm falls off.
Just ask Scott Proctor.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Game Picks - Sunday: August 16, 2009
Yesterday was weird. First, this picker completely missed the Nationals' game. And that was a shame, because it would have been correct. And that one correct pick would have made a lot of difference. The other part of the equation was a rain out in Florida. That would have been another correct pick and the day would have looked a lot better.
But it's okay. It wasn't a great day, but it wasn't a bad one either. The Fan fell to third for the week at BallHype. Told you. The old nemesis, OrioFan8, is 28-25 for the week and has 23.1 points. The Fan is 41-26 and has 14 points. Something wrong with that picture, no? But the Fan wouldn't be a responsible picker if all he did was pick underdogs to get the points. It's a question of honor and value to the Fan's readers.
With that in mind, here are today's picks:
Yesterday: 7-6
Week: 53-39
Month: 104-97
But it's okay. It wasn't a great day, but it wasn't a bad one either. The Fan fell to third for the week at BallHype. Told you. The old nemesis, OrioFan8, is 28-25 for the week and has 23.1 points. The Fan is 41-26 and has 14 points. Something wrong with that picture, no? But the Fan wouldn't be a responsible picker if all he did was pick underdogs to get the points. It's a question of honor and value to the Fan's readers.
With that in mind, here are today's picks:
- The Tigers over the Royals: Not a great pitching match up here, but the Tigers need to beat the weak Royals to press their case for the division.
- The Mets over the Giants: Picking Pelfrey at home over the Giants and Sanchez.
- The Nationals over the Reds: Two good looking young pitchers in Lannon versus Lehr. If the pitching match up is even, go with the better hitting team.
- The Marlins over the Rockies: Volstad versus Cook. Again, it was thought that Cook was going to miss this start. So there is skeptics there.
- The Angels over the Orioles: The Angels should win big despite a rookie pitching. Guthrie is terrible again.
- The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Garza should pick up the win here.
- The Astros over the Brewers: The Brewers are trying to put a run together, but it's a bit late for that. The Cardinals are not going to be caught.
- The Rangers over the Red Sox: Not feeling for the Red Sox with Tazawa pitching.
- The Indians over the Twins: Did you notice the Fan went against his instincts yesterday and finally got a Twins' game right? Can we make it two in a row?
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Richard looks good but Holliday has come to life and is earning a nice fat payday.
- The Pirates over the Cubs: Ohlendorf reminds the Fan of those days long ago in Strat-O-Matic baseball when the Fan would ride one obscure pitcher all the way to a pennant.
- The White Sox over the Athletics: Danks has been shaky lately, but Cahill has been shakier.
- The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dodgers had their hearts broken in the ninth yesterday. They bounce back today.
- The Mariners over the Yankees: Chamberlain is listed as the Yankees' starting pitcher, but he's been given the week off (or so the Fan read). That means a spot start by somebody frightening.
- The Rockies over the Marlins: The second game of the day/night double header (hate those).
- The Braves over the Phillies: Great match up of Happ versus Vazquez. Going with Vazquez.
Yesterday: 7-6
Week: 53-39
Month: 104-97
Boston Red Sox Doing a Rope-A-Dope?
With a loss to the Rangers, the Red Sox are now in second place in the American League East AND only a half a game ahead for the wild card. Of course, there are a lot of games left to be played, but did anyone see Boston having any point in this season where they weren't solidly in first for one of those two spots? What is happening here?
The Red Sox were valued so highly because their pitching was considered the best in baseball. But suddenly, the back end of the rotation is in tatters and the bullpen is struggling. The rotation was considered the deepest in baseball. But then Dice-K went down. Wakefield came up with a bad back. Brad Penny has showed that his Dodgers year last year wasn't a fluke. Masterson has come and gone. Smoltz has come and gone. And Jon Lester can't seem to get by the third ups of the line up. Beckett has been the sole standout and nobody saw that coming.
The Red Sox offense came up less than expected last year. And this year seems even worse. They have not gotten any offense at short. Their right-fielder has been a Stange Drew and last checked, was hitting below .250. The Ortiz saga has been well chronicled and though he has looked better in the last month, he's still batting .219. Pedroia isn't hitting with power like last year. Youkilis is having a good year by many standards except by his own. And Varitek?
Argue all you want, but the Red Sox captain has a higher slugging percentage than last year, but he's still hitting only .238. And on Friday night, the Rangers ran all over him and his pitchers to the tune of eight stolen bases. Eight! Without a single caught stealing in the mix. That's the second or third time this season that a team has run wild on old Tek. Either he isn't the defensive catcher (anymore at least) that he is supposed to be, or the pitching coach needs to teach his pitchers how to hold runners on. Oops. Just read a story that said the Bay Rays had eight stolen bases against the Red Sox (and Varitek) on May 3, and these same Rangers had six thefts on July 22.
Friday night, the Red Sox pitchers gave up 17 base runners in eight innings of work. And once they were ahead, the Rangers brought in new whiz kid, Neftali Feliz, and the Red Sox had no defense against him. The Red Sox are suddenly like Superman after exposure to Kryptonite. Lois better get that stuff away from them soon.
The Red Sox were valued so highly because their pitching was considered the best in baseball. But suddenly, the back end of the rotation is in tatters and the bullpen is struggling. The rotation was considered the deepest in baseball. But then Dice-K went down. Wakefield came up with a bad back. Brad Penny has showed that his Dodgers year last year wasn't a fluke. Masterson has come and gone. Smoltz has come and gone. And Jon Lester can't seem to get by the third ups of the line up. Beckett has been the sole standout and nobody saw that coming.
The Red Sox offense came up less than expected last year. And this year seems even worse. They have not gotten any offense at short. Their right-fielder has been a Stange Drew and last checked, was hitting below .250. The Ortiz saga has been well chronicled and though he has looked better in the last month, he's still batting .219. Pedroia isn't hitting with power like last year. Youkilis is having a good year by many standards except by his own. And Varitek?
Argue all you want, but the Red Sox captain has a higher slugging percentage than last year, but he's still hitting only .238. And on Friday night, the Rangers ran all over him and his pitchers to the tune of eight stolen bases. Eight! Without a single caught stealing in the mix. That's the second or third time this season that a team has run wild on old Tek. Either he isn't the defensive catcher (anymore at least) that he is supposed to be, or the pitching coach needs to teach his pitchers how to hold runners on. Oops. Just read a story that said the Bay Rays had eight stolen bases against the Red Sox (and Varitek) on May 3, and these same Rangers had six thefts on July 22.
Friday night, the Red Sox pitchers gave up 17 base runners in eight innings of work. And once they were ahead, the Rangers brought in new whiz kid, Neftali Feliz, and the Red Sox had no defense against him. The Red Sox are suddenly like Superman after exposure to Kryptonite. Lois better get that stuff away from them soon.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Game Picks - Saturday: August 15, 2009
This picker fell back to earth last night as several things went wrong with the picks. The Orioles exploded against the Angels. Greinke again didn't allow a run and once again, his team didn't score any. And then, in his infinite wisdom, Hillman brings in Colon to seal the loss. And once again, those confounded Twins did it again. They are, without pause, the most frustrating team on earth. Baker, who got pounded twice in a row (both picks were for him), threw a gem (when the pick was against him). Truly amazing.
The Fan also fell to second place on BallHype. No surprise there. Oh well, we need to get these picks going as the first tee is calling the Fan's name.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 46-33
Month: 97-91
The Fan also fell to second place on BallHype. No surprise there. Oh well, we need to get these picks going as the first tee is calling the Fan's name.
- The Pirates over the Cubs: This pick looks good unless the Cubs score a dozen runs since Gorzelanny is starting for the Cubs.
- The Athletics over the White Sox: Gio Gonzalez has been good his last two starts and he is the type of pitcher that can get geezers out.
- The Phillies over the Braves: Hamels versus Kawakami. Not feeling the Braves in that match up.
- The Mets over the Giants: Great match up of Cain versus Santana. Santana was dealing it last time out. Thinking he does it again here.
- The Indians over the Twins: Okay. The Fan is so messed up on the Twins, he thinks they should win, so they will lose. Right?
- The Marlins over the Rockies: The program lists Vanden Hurk versus Cook. But wasn't Cook hurt and didn't the story say he could miss a start? Therefore, Marlins.
- The Brewers over the Astros: The Brewers have come alive and scored like fifty runs their last two games. Moehler has to look mighty sweet to those swatters.
- The Angels over the Orioles: Lackey versus a kids. These are the kinds of games that just drive you crazy.
- The Tigers over the Royals: Yeah, if the Royals couldn't score against a mediocre pitcher, how are they going to score against Jackson?
- The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: Tallet versus Kazmir. Kazmir has been okay lately. Where has Tallet been?
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Pineiro has been looking like he is tired, but the Padres are dead in the water.
- The Rangers over the Red Sox: Penny should get hit by the Rangers' lineup. The wild card here is Holland, who has sucked most of the year but was unhittable last time out. Oy.
- The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dodgers simply are the better team when the pitching match up is about even.
- The Mariners over the Yankees: The Yankees throw Mitre out there again. Ugh.
Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 46-33
Month: 97-91
Boner Medicine
Normally in the FanDome, we try to keep things PG rated (nodding to eyeb), but a recent and very entertaining post by the great Joe Posnanski brought up (hint pun) one of this writer's most enduring irritants. It's only somewhat baseball related because these guys spend millions of dollars advertising on baseball telecasts. But then again, they spend millions advertising on all sports events, local news, national news and just about everywhere else. Yes, we're talking about boner medicine.
The Fan is somewhat sensitive to this topic because late in life, the Fan became the dad of an angel of a girl who is now thirteen years old. Fortunately (confused if that is fortunate or not), she thinks the commercials are gross. But the point is, why should she have to endure them? Why do any of us have to?
As Mr. Posnanski points out, there is no getting around the warnings to call a doctor immediately if your erection lasts more than four hours. There is no getting around the whole point of these commercials that erections are the issue at hand (that was an unfortunate pun). Okay, it's understood that some men have a problem in this area. And it's a good thing that our grandfathers have a new shot at some fun, that is, as long as we don't have to picture it or think about that concept very much. But really, why do we have to endure these blooming commercials day in and day out?
And who writes these things? The Fan's wife thinks men do and the Fan thinks that women do. Either way, they are pretty ridiculous. The first thing that comes to mind is those dang Cialis bath tubs. Who on G-d's green earth actually thinks that sitting in separate tubs (on the beach, in a garden, in a field, in a mountain) would be romantic? How do they get the water in there? Wouldn't it be more romantic and useful to what the medicine does to have both people in the same tub? If "the moment becomes right" wouldn't hopping into the other person's small bath tub be inconvenient?
And what about the other ones where the guy throw away the remotes and she throws away the magazines? Do they make use of what the medicine does? Nope, they dance instead. That reminds the Fan of the geckos down in Florida that go through an hour long ritual of showing off for each other before they actually get to business. Just do it, man!
It's bad enough that the commercials are on constantly, now these drugs are sponsoring events. In golf, we have/had "The Cialis Open." That gives new meaning to the golf expression, "hitting it stiff." During baseball games, we have the Cialis Pitching Change or other such inglorious uses of the name. Imagine the poor announcers (obviously an oxymoron) who have to read that crap and see it all over their program notes.
All this is Bill Clinton's fault. It was his dalliances with interns that became such big news that boners and other sexual acts started getting mentioned in news stories. Hey, if it's in news stories, then we sure as heck have a right to advertise about this great medicine that allows men everywhere to get erections with a magic pill. There is even a choice now between a daily pill and a spur of the moment pill. Good to know.
Baseball, more than most sports is a passed-down-through-the-generation type thing. Parents take the kids out to the games, watch games on TV and slog the kids to Little League. How many awkward conversations get generated for these poor parents when little John-EE or Amberlyn (got to get all these new-fangled names in there to be relevant) ask what an erection is?
And have you noticed that all of the actors in these commercials look fit as fiddles? Not an overweight or wrinkly face anywhere in sight. And worst of all, one of Elvis Presley's best songs is totally ruined forever by Viagra. That is truly the crime of the decade.
While we are on the subject, why must we also endure so many commercials about guys who can't pee? Or dentures that ooze? Or women who can't hold it? Or jock itch? Or feminine itch? Or women that can't naturally lubricate (ewww)? An evening at the old ballgame has become this creepy litany of oozing, itching, peeing and dancing-until-you-do-it bonanza. It's awful.
In an effort to be journalistically justified, this author must confess to trying Viagra once even though (thank G-d) there is no problem for this big and late-middle-aged fellow. It made the family jewels ache for an hour or so. It felt like someone had permanently kicked the Fan in the nuts. Not exactly romantic.
Look, the Fan gets it. These drugs make their companies a lot of money. Does all that advertising really make a difference though? Just about everyone in America now knows that if you can't pee, or can't stop peeing, can't get it up, can't stop itching, can't lubricate or whatever, there is medicine that can help you. Now that we are all informed until we are either numb or nauseous, can't we get these dang things away from our ball games, golf matches and rounds of Jeopardy? This dad would be eternally grateful if we could.
The Fan is somewhat sensitive to this topic because late in life, the Fan became the dad of an angel of a girl who is now thirteen years old. Fortunately (confused if that is fortunate or not), she thinks the commercials are gross. But the point is, why should she have to endure them? Why do any of us have to?
As Mr. Posnanski points out, there is no getting around the warnings to call a doctor immediately if your erection lasts more than four hours. There is no getting around the whole point of these commercials that erections are the issue at hand (that was an unfortunate pun). Okay, it's understood that some men have a problem in this area. And it's a good thing that our grandfathers have a new shot at some fun, that is, as long as we don't have to picture it or think about that concept very much. But really, why do we have to endure these blooming commercials day in and day out?
And who writes these things? The Fan's wife thinks men do and the Fan thinks that women do. Either way, they are pretty ridiculous. The first thing that comes to mind is those dang Cialis bath tubs. Who on G-d's green earth actually thinks that sitting in separate tubs (on the beach, in a garden, in a field, in a mountain) would be romantic? How do they get the water in there? Wouldn't it be more romantic and useful to what the medicine does to have both people in the same tub? If "the moment becomes right" wouldn't hopping into the other person's small bath tub be inconvenient?
And what about the other ones where the guy throw away the remotes and she throws away the magazines? Do they make use of what the medicine does? Nope, they dance instead. That reminds the Fan of the geckos down in Florida that go through an hour long ritual of showing off for each other before they actually get to business. Just do it, man!
It's bad enough that the commercials are on constantly, now these drugs are sponsoring events. In golf, we have/had "The Cialis Open." That gives new meaning to the golf expression, "hitting it stiff." During baseball games, we have the Cialis Pitching Change or other such inglorious uses of the name. Imagine the poor announcers (obviously an oxymoron) who have to read that crap and see it all over their program notes.
All this is Bill Clinton's fault. It was his dalliances with interns that became such big news that boners and other sexual acts started getting mentioned in news stories. Hey, if it's in news stories, then we sure as heck have a right to advertise about this great medicine that allows men everywhere to get erections with a magic pill. There is even a choice now between a daily pill and a spur of the moment pill. Good to know.
Baseball, more than most sports is a passed-down-through-the-generation type thing. Parents take the kids out to the games, watch games on TV and slog the kids to Little League. How many awkward conversations get generated for these poor parents when little John-EE or Amberlyn (got to get all these new-fangled names in there to be relevant) ask what an erection is?
And have you noticed that all of the actors in these commercials look fit as fiddles? Not an overweight or wrinkly face anywhere in sight. And worst of all, one of Elvis Presley's best songs is totally ruined forever by Viagra. That is truly the crime of the decade.
While we are on the subject, why must we also endure so many commercials about guys who can't pee? Or dentures that ooze? Or women who can't hold it? Or jock itch? Or feminine itch? Or women that can't naturally lubricate (ewww)? An evening at the old ballgame has become this creepy litany of oozing, itching, peeing and dancing-until-you-do-it bonanza. It's awful.
In an effort to be journalistically justified, this author must confess to trying Viagra once even though (thank G-d) there is no problem for this big and late-middle-aged fellow. It made the family jewels ache for an hour or so. It felt like someone had permanently kicked the Fan in the nuts. Not exactly romantic.
Look, the Fan gets it. These drugs make their companies a lot of money. Does all that advertising really make a difference though? Just about everyone in America now knows that if you can't pee, or can't stop peeing, can't get it up, can't stop itching, can't lubricate or whatever, there is medicine that can help you. Now that we are all informed until we are either numb or nauseous, can't we get these dang things away from our ball games, golf matches and rounds of Jeopardy? This dad would be eternally grateful if we could.
Friday, August 14, 2009
A New Wonderkind
Remember a couple of years ago when Joba Chamberlain was first called up to the Yankees and the buzz that was created by his heroics? That same kind of buzz is surrounding a new pitcher by the name of Neftali Feliz, who has provided the Rangers with a huge lift in relief.
According to the scouts, he has two A-plus pitches, a hundred mile an hour fastball and a curve that is thrown so hard and has such a biting break that the batters don't seem to have a chance. He's now pitched in four games for a total of 6.2 innings. He's given up one hit, a homer, no walks and has struck out 13. Wow!
It's early in his young career, but he sure has made an early impression. To see what he's all about, click this link and see for yourself. It's quite amazing.
According to the scouts, he has two A-plus pitches, a hundred mile an hour fastball and a curve that is thrown so hard and has such a biting break that the batters don't seem to have a chance. He's now pitched in four games for a total of 6.2 innings. He's given up one hit, a homer, no walks and has struck out 13. Wow!
It's early in his young career, but he sure has made an early impression. To see what he's all about, click this link and see for yourself. It's quite amazing.
Game Picks - Friday: August 14, 2009
Whoa! This picker is way behind schedule. Been up since six working on a rush book order due today because the dang paper company was late shipping the special paper needed for the job. Oh well. At least the picks were again in the very positive zone. This picker is still atop the leader board at www.ballhype.com. But the game picker has not yet finished a week on top of that silly site as you get more points sometimes being wrong half the time than when you are correct 75% of the time.
Another full Friday and since we're already late, let's get right to it.
There you have it. Have a great weekend.
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 39-25
Month: 90-83
Another full Friday and since we're already late, let's get right to it.
- The Cubs over the Pirates: Morton has been pretty good for the Pirates, but Wells is the only Cubs' pitcher to keep on winning.
- The Angels over the Orioles: Weaver has been outstanding lately.
- The Royals over the Tigers: Yeah, the Tigers should win, but Washburn is no lock for them and Greinke is pitching for the Royals.
- The Marlins over the Rockies: Josh Johnson should be better than Hammel.
- The Giants over the Mets: Zito? He's been pretty good, but it sure is scary picking him to win. Parnell though hasn't been good as a starter.
- The Nationals over the Reds: Might as well make a Mock-ery of this pick.
- The Braves over the Phillies: Like Jurrjens better than Blanton.
- The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Another battle of the "Ays" features Halladay for the Blue Jays.
- The Astros over the Brewers: Berkman is back and the Fan was foolish to give up on Wandy last time.
- The Red Sox over the Rangers: Hate to make this pick, but the trust is more in Lester than in Millwood.
- The Indians over the Twins: Still one for sixty with Twins' picks. It's amazing how this team baffles.
- The Cardinals over the Padres: Latos is good but not as good as Wainwright.
- The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Hate picking against Haran, but Kershaw will shut down the other offense.
- The Athletics over the White Sox: Anderson has been really good for the A's and Contreras is problematic.
- The Yankees over the Mariners: Pettitte has looked ten years younger lately and the Yankees are pounding the ball.
There you have it. Have a great weekend.
Yesterday: 6-3
Week: 39-25
Month: 90-83
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Some Quick Observations
Many of these items have stories in them that perhaps can be expanded later. But for the moment, there are too many thoughts swirling around for any of them to gel completely. They are, nonetheless, interesting and worth noting for your digestion.
Pedro pitched decently and got the win. It was amazing to see Pedro Martinez back in the majors and in a game. He gave up three runs in five innings (not much better than Moyer) while allowing eight base runners. He did strike out five while only walking one, so that is a good sign.
The Brewers are a mess. They looked like contenders early in the year but have fallen on really hard times. Yesterday, they cut Bill Hall (not a problem there) and optioned J. J. Hardy to the minors. Hardy still has some pop and it doesn't seem to make sense to dump him like that. If they were trying to send a message, the Hall thing would have been enough. If they are giving up on Hardy, a lot of teams would love to have him. The Brewers also fired long-time pitching coach, Bill Castro, as if it was his fault they lost half of their rotation and the others didn't perform. What a mess.
The Astros activated Lance Berkman and they will be happy to have their big bopper back at first. Doesn't this scenario seem familiar? It seems like every year, Berkman shambles along, then goes on the DL for a while and then comes back and has monster Augusts and Septembers. At least it feels like we have been through this before.
And last but not least, believe it or not, Adam Eaton is back in the major leagues again. Can you believe it! The Rockies are his latest team and they just promoted him from AAA. Man. Go figure.
Pedro pitched decently and got the win. It was amazing to see Pedro Martinez back in the majors and in a game. He gave up three runs in five innings (not much better than Moyer) while allowing eight base runners. He did strike out five while only walking one, so that is a good sign.
The Brewers are a mess. They looked like contenders early in the year but have fallen on really hard times. Yesterday, they cut Bill Hall (not a problem there) and optioned J. J. Hardy to the minors. Hardy still has some pop and it doesn't seem to make sense to dump him like that. If they were trying to send a message, the Hall thing would have been enough. If they are giving up on Hardy, a lot of teams would love to have him. The Brewers also fired long-time pitching coach, Bill Castro, as if it was his fault they lost half of their rotation and the others didn't perform. What a mess.
The Astros activated Lance Berkman and they will be happy to have their big bopper back at first. Doesn't this scenario seem familiar? It seems like every year, Berkman shambles along, then goes on the DL for a while and then comes back and has monster Augusts and Septembers. At least it feels like we have been through this before.
And last but not least, believe it or not, Adam Eaton is back in the major leagues again. Can you believe it! The Rockies are his latest team and they just promoted him from AAA. Man. Go figure.
Game Picks - Thursday: August 13, 2009
Last week {{shiver}} is a thing of the past and this week has been a good one. Heck, even the month is now in the black. Well, alright! Only those crazy Twins messed up again along with the Cubs and the Marlins (can you say, "Thump"), Diamondbacks and Bay Rays. Other than that, everything worked out really well.
Tonight is a short schedule with only nine games, but let's see if we can keep this ball rolling:
Beautiful summer day in Maine. Hope it's nice wherever you are!
Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 33-22
Month: 84-80
Tonight is a short schedule with only nine games, but let's see if we can keep this ball rolling:
- The Rangers over the Indians: Feldman! Go Feldman!
- The Twins over the Royals: Here we go again with the Twins. The Fan is even picking Pavano to win. Geez.
- The Tigers over the Red Sox: The Tigers need to get moving and they have the closest thing to an ace on the mound. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are pitching Buckholz.
- The Padres over the Brewers: Latos has been surprisingly good. Parra has not. The Brewers are in disarray.
- The Phillies over the Cubs: Lee has been unbelievable for the Phillies.
- The Rockies over the Pirates: Would like to go with Maholm and the Pirates, but Maholm has been beatable lately and this picker can't pick against Marquis.
- The Reds over the Nationals: Arroyo is due for a good game.
- The Astros over the Marlins: Not real swift on Mike Hampton who has been getting pounded. But Sean West gives this picker no confidence.
- The Yankees over the Mariners: Sabathia has his second good start in a row and the New Yorkers jump all over Ian Snell despite the jet lag.
Beautiful summer day in Maine. Hope it's nice wherever you are!
Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 33-22
Month: 84-80
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Jack Cust's Perfect Symmatry
Before last night's game, Cust had reached a Nirvana of sorts. Cust entered Wednesday night's game with 1704 plate appearances. In those 1704 plate appearances, he has walked 305 times and struck out 547 times. Add those two together and you get 852 or exactly 50% of his plate appearances. The number is freaky.
What that means is that in Cust's entire career, 50% of his trudges up to the plate result in a ball not put in play. If you add in his homers at 80, then that brings the total to 55% of his plate appearances where the fielders can sit it out and take a rest. Has there ever been anyone like Cust? Ever?
The sad thing is that Cust is regressing instead of getting better. His strikeout rate is better at 33% this year compared to 40% last year (39% for his career). But his last three years show a decline in his OPS. In 2007 it was .912. Last year it was .851 and this year he's down to .777. He is also playing a lot in the field which doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It might have done so when Giambi was there, but not now. He's a DH if there ever was one.
But, he is Jack Cust and there is no one else like him. What did he do Wednesday night? He had four plate appearances. He struck out twice and he walked twice. It was a typical Jack Cust night. But it did mess up the symmetry. Now the total of his walks and strikeouts compared to his plate appearances is at 50.12%
What that means is that in Cust's entire career, 50% of his trudges up to the plate result in a ball not put in play. If you add in his homers at 80, then that brings the total to 55% of his plate appearances where the fielders can sit it out and take a rest. Has there ever been anyone like Cust? Ever?
The sad thing is that Cust is regressing instead of getting better. His strikeout rate is better at 33% this year compared to 40% last year (39% for his career). But his last three years show a decline in his OPS. In 2007 it was .912. Last year it was .851 and this year he's down to .777. He is also playing a lot in the field which doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It might have done so when Giambi was there, but not now. He's a DH if there ever was one.
But, he is Jack Cust and there is no one else like him. What did he do Wednesday night? He had four plate appearances. He struck out twice and he walked twice. It was a typical Jack Cust night. But it did mess up the symmetry. Now the total of his walks and strikeouts compared to his plate appearances is at 50.12%
Heltoning it on the Head
A player has now, at the age of 34, amassed 2086 career hits, 321 homers, 504 doubles, 1181 RBI, a lifetime .328 batting average and has a lifetime OPS of .997. Future member of the Hall of Fame? The player is Todd Helton and his problem is his home field. Helton has played his entire career for the Colorado Rockies and unfortunately, his career is hard to take seriously because of it. Is that fair?
Well, one thing is certain: If he had a few more years like last year, it would have been a moot conversation. He had a .777 OPS last year and only hit .264. He became a forgotten man after that. But he is at the center of the Rockies resurgence this year and is batting .329 with an OPS of .919. So it is safe to assume that last year was an anomaly based on injuries or something.
But since he is back, the debate again comes up because, as this year proves, if Helton can put a few more decent seasons together, he's going to have a lot of good career numbers. The debate will rage around where he plays his home games and proof will be sought after by his career home/away splits. So let's look at them.
Home: .362/.469/.647
Away: .304/.394/.492
That's a pretty big difference. The BA is still very good as is the OBP. But the slugging certainly suffers. Is this a knock only on Todd Helton. Is his home playing field a singular event for just him? Are there others in history that are similar? Certainly Hank Aaron is a prime example of a true superstar. His stats at home and away are so similar over his storied career that they are within percentage points. Mickey Mantle suffered some in the home/away splits but still slugged .548 on the road during his career.
Here are a couple of Hall of Fame splits. The Fan will reveal the players after:
Player 1:
Home: .290/.349/.538
Away: .258/.311/.461
Quite a difference there.
Player 2:
Home: .354/.443/.491
Away: .302/.387/.395
Big difference there too.
Player 3:
Home: .320/.383/.506
Away: .290/.356/.469
All three of the above are in the Hall of Fame and all three have fairly significant number differences home and away. There could be more examples, but home and away splits are unavailable (at least on www.baseball-reference.com) before 1973. The players? Ernie Banks, Wade Boggs and George Brett.
So, there you have it. Three players have all gotten into the Hall of Fame despite significant differences in their home and away splits. But where the Rockies play their home games (whatever they call it now!) seems to have an even more biased history than other former hitters' parks. That is so much the case that Helton's unbelievable numbers in 2000 and 2001 are always blamed on his home field without a hint of steroids. Name any other player where that would be the case?
Steps have been taken in Denver to change some of the advantage the hitters have. The Humidor (whatever that is) is one example. One doesn't hear as much about pitchers not being able to succeed there now as there was in the past. Perhaps that will work in Helton's favor if he stays with the Rockies over his career.
Matt Holliday certainly heard the same whispers and his time in Oakland seemed to cement them as the truth. But now that Holliday is with the Cardinals and again whopping the ball, perhaps that will die down too.
What is a shame, perhaps, is that nobody really knows how good Todd Helton really was or is. As long as his past and present is tied up with the Rockies, his Hall of Fame resume will be debated for a long, long time.
Well, one thing is certain: If he had a few more years like last year, it would have been a moot conversation. He had a .777 OPS last year and only hit .264. He became a forgotten man after that. But he is at the center of the Rockies resurgence this year and is batting .329 with an OPS of .919. So it is safe to assume that last year was an anomaly based on injuries or something.
But since he is back, the debate again comes up because, as this year proves, if Helton can put a few more decent seasons together, he's going to have a lot of good career numbers. The debate will rage around where he plays his home games and proof will be sought after by his career home/away splits. So let's look at them.
Home: .362/.469/.647
Away: .304/.394/.492
That's a pretty big difference. The BA is still very good as is the OBP. But the slugging certainly suffers. Is this a knock only on Todd Helton. Is his home playing field a singular event for just him? Are there others in history that are similar? Certainly Hank Aaron is a prime example of a true superstar. His stats at home and away are so similar over his storied career that they are within percentage points. Mickey Mantle suffered some in the home/away splits but still slugged .548 on the road during his career.
Here are a couple of Hall of Fame splits. The Fan will reveal the players after:
Player 1:
Home: .290/.349/.538
Away: .258/.311/.461
Quite a difference there.
Player 2:
Home: .354/.443/.491
Away: .302/.387/.395
Big difference there too.
Player 3:
Home: .320/.383/.506
Away: .290/.356/.469
All three of the above are in the Hall of Fame and all three have fairly significant number differences home and away. There could be more examples, but home and away splits are unavailable (at least on www.baseball-reference.com) before 1973. The players? Ernie Banks, Wade Boggs and George Brett.
So, there you have it. Three players have all gotten into the Hall of Fame despite significant differences in their home and away splits. But where the Rockies play their home games (whatever they call it now!) seems to have an even more biased history than other former hitters' parks. That is so much the case that Helton's unbelievable numbers in 2000 and 2001 are always blamed on his home field without a hint of steroids. Name any other player where that would be the case?
Steps have been taken in Denver to change some of the advantage the hitters have. The Humidor (whatever that is) is one example. One doesn't hear as much about pitchers not being able to succeed there now as there was in the past. Perhaps that will work in Helton's favor if he stays with the Rockies over his career.
Matt Holliday certainly heard the same whispers and his time in Oakland seemed to cement them as the truth. But now that Holliday is with the Cardinals and again whopping the ball, perhaps that will die down too.
What is a shame, perhaps, is that nobody really knows how good Todd Helton really was or is. As long as his past and present is tied up with the Rockies, his Hall of Fame resume will be debated for a long, long time.
Game Picks - Wednesday: August 12, 2009
The good vibe is back and this picker is 18-7 in his last two days. That somewhat erases the horrid taste left on the palette from last week. As bobook pointed out (thank you), it's a pretty good day when picking the Pirates, Reds, Padres and Royals to win and three out of the four do win. Heck, the picker is even on top of the list this week on ballhype.com (too bad that site's screwy scoring system won't allow this picker to stay there). For those of you keeping score, the picker is now 1312-1155 in picks for the season. That's 157 games over .500. Do you know what the Fan's cumulative ballhype.com score is for that record? -6. Yes, minus 6. Something is screwy there huh?
Anyway, the morning is frittering away, so we better get to the picks:
Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 23-17
Month: 74-75
Anyway, the morning is frittering away, so we better get to the picks:
- The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are playing tough, but the Yankees are too much.
- The A's over the Orioles: Mazzero versus Berken. Flip a coin on which young pitcher will perform. Who knows.
- The Bay Rays over the Angels: Neimann should beat Bell. But again, this pick is fraught with danger as the Angels are playing well and the Bay Rays are playing like there is still the whole season to get into wild card contention. In other words, there is little urgency there.
- The Diamondbacks over the Mets: The good Oliver Perez or the bad one? Who can ever tell.
- The Giants over the Dodgers: Torre must have a Jeff Weaver fixation. Only that can explain why the great manager has this weak spot for this awful pitcher.
- The Rangers over the Indians: Again: The Rangers need to win just about every game.
- The Marlins over the Astros: The Marlins should teach the Bay Rays a thing or two about how to act in a wild card race.
- The Braves over the Nationals: The Nats' winning streak is history and so is their nice little buzz.
- The Red Sox over the Tigers: The Red Sox will eat Galarraga for lunch while Beckett cleans up.
- The Padres over the Brewers: The Brew Crew might as well wave the white flag as they keep trotting Villanueva out there.
- The Cubs over the Phillies: Pedro's first start of the year for the Phillies? Not feeling it.
- The Royals over the Twins: Those dang Twins screwed the Fan up again yesterday.
- The Cardinals over the Reds: Carpenter. Homer Bailey. Yeah. That's what the Fan thought too.
- The Rockies over the Pirates: Thought about taking Hart and the Pirates. But then thought against it.
- The Mariners over the White Sox: Buehrle threw 14 straight perfect innings and hasn't gotten anyone out since. Whuh?
Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 23-17
Month: 74-75
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Game Picks - Tuesday: August 11, 2009
Well, that's better. With the exception of the American League East, with other than Toronto beating the Yankees, confused this picker quite a bit. Didn't expect the Red Sox to beat the Tigers. Really thought that Garza would fare better against the Angels. And this picker really should have known better than to pick Guthrie. Guthrie!? Duh.
But over all, seven out of ten is a lot better than things have been lately. It is Tuesday and we are back to a full fifteen games, which, based on things last week, fill this picker with dread. But facing things is what this picker does. So on we go:
Well, there it is. It doesn't feel like another 5-10 line up.
Yesterday: 7-3
Week: 12-13
Month: 63-71
But over all, seven out of ten is a lot better than things have been lately. It is Tuesday and we are back to a full fifteen games, which, based on things last week, fill this picker with dread. But facing things is what this picker does. So on we go:
- The Orioles over the A's: Hernandez versus Cahill. Can't remember the last time Cahill had a good outing.
- The Rangers over the Indians: Very scary game. The Rangers need the wins. The Indians have been getting them in bunches.
- The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Now that we have Mitre out of the way, it's back to our regularly scheduled programming.
- The Marlins over the Astros: Not only is Volstad doing well, but Oswalt is back for his first game after injuring his back. Not liking that scenario.
- The Braves over the Nationals: Hanson versus Lannon. The Braves stop the Nats' winning streak even though the Nationals are using their best pitcher.
- The Tigers over the Red Sox: Porcello is a scary pick, but the Red Sox are starting Tazawa, the same young kid who gave up A-Rod's bomb in the 15th inning Friday night.
- The Padres over the Brewers: Richard was a lot for the White Sox to give up for Peavy.
- The Phillies over the Cubs: Happ versus Harden. Going with Happ.
- The Twins over the Royals: Did you notice that the Fan got a Twins' game pick correct yesterday? It's a miracle!
- The Reds over the Cardinals: Lehr hasn't lacked courage since he came up from the minors. Did you get that joke?
- The Pirates over the Rockies: Ohlendorf! Ha ha! He is pitching against the latest reincarnation of Chacin.
- The Diamondbacks over the Mets: Man, how the Fan hates picking against Livan.
- The Bay Rays over the Angels: David Price needs to have a big game.
- The White Sox over the Mariners: Isn't Fister one of the most unfortunate names?
- The Dodgers over the Giants: Randy Wolf needs to win this game to put the Dodgers back on easy street.
Well, there it is. It doesn't feel like another 5-10 line up.
Yesterday: 7-3
Week: 12-13
Month: 63-71
Padilla, Guillen and the DH
There certainly has been a lot of discussion about hit batsmen lately. Vincent Padilla, apparently a leper to his teammates, likes to hit guys after someone hits a homer off of him. It happened earlier in the year against the Yankees and happened again just last week. In the most recent incarnation, Michael Young got drilled in retaliation. Texas players were fed up with having targets on their backs and when Texas drop kicked one of its semi-reliable starters from its roster, there was nothing but praise for their GM by the Rangers' players.
In another news wire story today, White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, no stranger to the verbal highlight reels, said he was tired of his guys getting hit and would start hitting players on the other team if it continued. He was quoted as saying that he doesn't care if he gets suspended if it happens.
There are two problems here that have caused the present situation. The American League has the DH. Those who visit the FanDome on a regular basis know the Fan is a conditional lover of the DH. But one of the fall outs of the AL rule is that if the other team feels that its players are targeted, the DH takes the pitcher out of the lineup, so the other team has no other option than to hit another player. Take Padilla for example (which in all likelihood, somebody will). Padilla has his manhood offended by a homer. He decides to get some of his manhood back by plunking a subsequent batter. Padilla doesn't bat. So the opposing team can't go after him. The only option they have is to hit someone like Michael Young.
If the Fan had been the Texas manager, here's how that could have been handled. Obviously, Ranger players have been warned by other teams. Michael Young said so himself after the Yankee incident. Several of his "friends" on the Yankees (read Teixeira, A-Rod and Jeter) told him that Padilla was going to get his fellow Ranger players killed. So, since this is a known problem, the next time it happened, the Fan as manager would insert Padilla in the batting order where the DH is supposed to be. Can you see how that would play out?
Fan as Manager: "Padilla, grab a bat, you're hitting for Blalock."
Padilla: "Que?"
Fan as Manager: "Oh for goodness sake, will somebody bilingual please tell the guy he is going to hit for Blalock."
Bilingual Teammate: [[spanish translation]]
Padilla: "Porque? He Loco?"
Padilla glances at his manager who does a head shake towards the bat rack. Padilla grabs a bat and furiously begs fellow teammates for whatever body armor they wear up to the plate. Finally the umpire walks over and says, "You have a guy to hit or what?"
Padilla walks nervously to the batter's box. He looks out at the pitcher who just smiles at him. Padilla takes the first pitch which is at his feet. Padilla displays a good dance move to get out of the way. He's even more nervous now. The next pitch is a rocket heading right for Padilla's back. No way Padilla has time to get out the way. The sound is something like a hammer hitting a watermelon. Padilla winces and immediately grabs his back. The pitcher on the mound snickers all the way to the dugout after being tossed from the game. Padilla's teammates snicker too as the trainer tries to keep from laughing as he tries to assess the damage. Padilla vows he is never going to "man up" again and hit an opposing batter.
That would fix it. But it will never happen because a manager would be foolish to lose a DH for a game. Now that the Rangers have punted the pitcher, if he signs with a National League club, he better wise up.
The second problem (you have probably lost the reference here as the Fan had a slight diversion of fancy) is that one of the new Nirvanas for pitching is to pitch inside. As Ozzie rightly points out, if you don't know how to do it, don't do it. In other words, pitching inside is a great idea IF you have the control to pull it off. But if you are slightly unaware of where your mechanics are going to take your pitches, pitching inside is probably not a good idea. People can get killed that way. And it might be your own players who get thrown at in retaliation.
Speaking of hit batsmen, did you watch the Sunday night ESPN game with the Red Sox and Yankees? After Damon and Teixeira wrecked Daniel Bard with back-to-back homers, Bard then walked A-Rod. After Okijama came in, Posada doubled to put men on second and third. That brought up Nick Swisher. On the first pitch to Swisher, the pitch came inside and appeared to graze Swisher's uniform. Swisher, an apparent student of the game and the metrics of OBP, looked at the ump and told him he had been hit. The ump didn't see it that way.
Old school Joe Morgan (and the Fan couldn't quite disagree with him) laughed and said something to the effect of, "Why would he want to go to first like that when he has two possible RBIs sitting out there." Such is the vast cavern of thought currently in baseball. Morgan played in the "RBI is king" days of statistical evaluation. Swisher plays in the "OBP is king" days.
It all worked out for Swisher as he hit a single. He got his two ribbies AND a notch on his OBP.
In another news wire story today, White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, no stranger to the verbal highlight reels, said he was tired of his guys getting hit and would start hitting players on the other team if it continued. He was quoted as saying that he doesn't care if he gets suspended if it happens.
There are two problems here that have caused the present situation. The American League has the DH. Those who visit the FanDome on a regular basis know the Fan is a conditional lover of the DH. But one of the fall outs of the AL rule is that if the other team feels that its players are targeted, the DH takes the pitcher out of the lineup, so the other team has no other option than to hit another player. Take Padilla for example (which in all likelihood, somebody will). Padilla has his manhood offended by a homer. He decides to get some of his manhood back by plunking a subsequent batter. Padilla doesn't bat. So the opposing team can't go after him. The only option they have is to hit someone like Michael Young.
If the Fan had been the Texas manager, here's how that could have been handled. Obviously, Ranger players have been warned by other teams. Michael Young said so himself after the Yankee incident. Several of his "friends" on the Yankees (read Teixeira, A-Rod and Jeter) told him that Padilla was going to get his fellow Ranger players killed. So, since this is a known problem, the next time it happened, the Fan as manager would insert Padilla in the batting order where the DH is supposed to be. Can you see how that would play out?
Fan as Manager: "Padilla, grab a bat, you're hitting for Blalock."
Padilla: "Que?"
Fan as Manager: "Oh for goodness sake, will somebody bilingual please tell the guy he is going to hit for Blalock."
Bilingual Teammate: [[spanish translation]]
Padilla: "Porque? He Loco?"
Padilla glances at his manager who does a head shake towards the bat rack. Padilla grabs a bat and furiously begs fellow teammates for whatever body armor they wear up to the plate. Finally the umpire walks over and says, "You have a guy to hit or what?"
Padilla walks nervously to the batter's box. He looks out at the pitcher who just smiles at him. Padilla takes the first pitch which is at his feet. Padilla displays a good dance move to get out of the way. He's even more nervous now. The next pitch is a rocket heading right for Padilla's back. No way Padilla has time to get out the way. The sound is something like a hammer hitting a watermelon. Padilla winces and immediately grabs his back. The pitcher on the mound snickers all the way to the dugout after being tossed from the game. Padilla's teammates snicker too as the trainer tries to keep from laughing as he tries to assess the damage. Padilla vows he is never going to "man up" again and hit an opposing batter.
That would fix it. But it will never happen because a manager would be foolish to lose a DH for a game. Now that the Rangers have punted the pitcher, if he signs with a National League club, he better wise up.
The second problem (you have probably lost the reference here as the Fan had a slight diversion of fancy) is that one of the new Nirvanas for pitching is to pitch inside. As Ozzie rightly points out, if you don't know how to do it, don't do it. In other words, pitching inside is a great idea IF you have the control to pull it off. But if you are slightly unaware of where your mechanics are going to take your pitches, pitching inside is probably not a good idea. People can get killed that way. And it might be your own players who get thrown at in retaliation.
Speaking of hit batsmen, did you watch the Sunday night ESPN game with the Red Sox and Yankees? After Damon and Teixeira wrecked Daniel Bard with back-to-back homers, Bard then walked A-Rod. After Okijama came in, Posada doubled to put men on second and third. That brought up Nick Swisher. On the first pitch to Swisher, the pitch came inside and appeared to graze Swisher's uniform. Swisher, an apparent student of the game and the metrics of OBP, looked at the ump and told him he had been hit. The ump didn't see it that way.
Old school Joe Morgan (and the Fan couldn't quite disagree with him) laughed and said something to the effect of, "Why would he want to go to first like that when he has two possible RBIs sitting out there." Such is the vast cavern of thought currently in baseball. Morgan played in the "RBI is king" days of statistical evaluation. Swisher plays in the "OBP is king" days.
It all worked out for Swisher as he hit a single. He got his two ribbies AND a notch on his OBP.
Monday, August 10, 2009
The Yankees Sweep the Red Sox
It wasn't your typical whooping, but it was a masterful series the Yankees just played against the Red Sox, a team that had swept them for the season before this series. The Yankees out pitched the Red Sox and they out hit them. The Yankees made a mess of the best bullpen in baseball while their own bullpen (with the exception of Phil Coke on Sunday night) was fantastic. In every way, this series was all Yankees as the team from New York started the series with a two and a half game lead in the division and left it leading by six and a half.
It started on Thursday night. The Red Sox, needing to continue beating the Yankees, made a tactical blunder by starting the once-great John Smoltz. Smoltz had done nothing to that point in showing that he could get the job done and after the first couple of innings, the game was over. The Red Sox, in effect, took the pressure off the Yankees, who had been under the eight ball all year by the Boston team. There is no denying that Smoltz has had a great career, but when you are already trailing by two and a half, you work your rotation so your best guys are up there to beat the team you have to beat. If Beckett had started the series and blanked them early on, there is no telling if the Yankees would have stayed tight looking down the barrel of a ninth straight defeat against the Red Sox. So that was a mistake.
The Friday night game will be remembered for a long, long time. Fourteen and a half innings of scoreless baseball. Beckett and Burnett were fabulous as the starters. Both bullpens hung in there with the Red Sox escaping several close calls in the 11th, 13th and 14th innings. But then A-Rod won it against a young Japanese kid making his major league debut. A pitcher only in there because every other Red Sox relief pitcher was already used up.
Saturday was Sabathia's game. His first big moment in a Yankee uniform. After a so-so season, he no-hit the Red Sox for five and pitched a shutout. Buckholz did well, but not well enough and the Yankees then torched the worn out Red Sox bullpen to ice the game.
Sunday night was a great game. Both starters were excellent. Andy Pettitte had a scary couple of innings early, but pitched seven shutout innings and got stronger as the night went on. In the bottom of the seventh, A-Rod murdered a pitch from Lester and the Yankees went ahead 1-0. The way the Yankee bullpen has been pitching, that figured to be enough. But Phil Coke was not sharp and the newly acquired Victor Martinez launched a two-run homer to make it a 2-1 Red Sox lead. The homer snapped a 32 inning scoreless streak for the Red Sox in the series.
It seemed as if the Red Sox were going to salvage at least one game of the series, especially with their bullpen. But young Daniel Bard was called in to pitch to the Yankees in the eighth as the bridge to Papelbon. The Yankees burned down the bridge. After two weak outs on a strikeout to Matsui and an excuse-me swing by Jeter, Johnny Damon hit a laser into the bullpen to tie the game. Mark Teixeira then came up and put the Yankees ahead with a moon shot to the upper deck. After a walk to A-Rod, the Red Sox then brought in the usually reliable Okijama, but he was ineffective and the inning ended with the Yankees up 5-2. Rivera made it a little scary in the ninth, but he got the save and the Red Sox now need to regroup as they head for another tough series against Detroit.
The Fan watched most of this series and has long believed this year that the Red Sox were the best team in baseball. They seemed to have it all. But after watching the four games, something is not clicking. Certainly David Ortiz is not the fearsome force he has been in the past, and though the Red Sox have lived with that all year, it seems to have weakened the entire lineup and has forced other guys to step up and they haven't. It almost seems that the Red Sox have lost some confidence because they don't have that force in the middle of the lineup in big situations like before.
The Red Sox are missing something else: Manny Ramirez. Sure, they got into the ALCS last year without him. But over the long haul, he was a menace and a terror, especially combined with Ortiz. It is hard to say if Ortiz would have put up the numbers he did for so long without Manny behind him. Take Ortiz and his diminished capacity and remove Ramirez completely and the Red Sox are ordinary at the plate. And good pitching, like the Yankees showed this series, will exploit ordinary in ways the Red Sox have not been exploited in years.
It will be interesting to see where Boston goes from here. They are now only tied for the wildcard with the Rangers and the Bay Rays are right behind. The Red Sox still have some of the best pitching in the majors. After this series, it will be fascinating to see if it is enough.
It started on Thursday night. The Red Sox, needing to continue beating the Yankees, made a tactical blunder by starting the once-great John Smoltz. Smoltz had done nothing to that point in showing that he could get the job done and after the first couple of innings, the game was over. The Red Sox, in effect, took the pressure off the Yankees, who had been under the eight ball all year by the Boston team. There is no denying that Smoltz has had a great career, but when you are already trailing by two and a half, you work your rotation so your best guys are up there to beat the team you have to beat. If Beckett had started the series and blanked them early on, there is no telling if the Yankees would have stayed tight looking down the barrel of a ninth straight defeat against the Red Sox. So that was a mistake.
The Friday night game will be remembered for a long, long time. Fourteen and a half innings of scoreless baseball. Beckett and Burnett were fabulous as the starters. Both bullpens hung in there with the Red Sox escaping several close calls in the 11th, 13th and 14th innings. But then A-Rod won it against a young Japanese kid making his major league debut. A pitcher only in there because every other Red Sox relief pitcher was already used up.
Saturday was Sabathia's game. His first big moment in a Yankee uniform. After a so-so season, he no-hit the Red Sox for five and pitched a shutout. Buckholz did well, but not well enough and the Yankees then torched the worn out Red Sox bullpen to ice the game.
Sunday night was a great game. Both starters were excellent. Andy Pettitte had a scary couple of innings early, but pitched seven shutout innings and got stronger as the night went on. In the bottom of the seventh, A-Rod murdered a pitch from Lester and the Yankees went ahead 1-0. The way the Yankee bullpen has been pitching, that figured to be enough. But Phil Coke was not sharp and the newly acquired Victor Martinez launched a two-run homer to make it a 2-1 Red Sox lead. The homer snapped a 32 inning scoreless streak for the Red Sox in the series.
It seemed as if the Red Sox were going to salvage at least one game of the series, especially with their bullpen. But young Daniel Bard was called in to pitch to the Yankees in the eighth as the bridge to Papelbon. The Yankees burned down the bridge. After two weak outs on a strikeout to Matsui and an excuse-me swing by Jeter, Johnny Damon hit a laser into the bullpen to tie the game. Mark Teixeira then came up and put the Yankees ahead with a moon shot to the upper deck. After a walk to A-Rod, the Red Sox then brought in the usually reliable Okijama, but he was ineffective and the inning ended with the Yankees up 5-2. Rivera made it a little scary in the ninth, but he got the save and the Red Sox now need to regroup as they head for another tough series against Detroit.
The Fan watched most of this series and has long believed this year that the Red Sox were the best team in baseball. They seemed to have it all. But after watching the four games, something is not clicking. Certainly David Ortiz is not the fearsome force he has been in the past, and though the Red Sox have lived with that all year, it seems to have weakened the entire lineup and has forced other guys to step up and they haven't. It almost seems that the Red Sox have lost some confidence because they don't have that force in the middle of the lineup in big situations like before.
The Red Sox are missing something else: Manny Ramirez. Sure, they got into the ALCS last year without him. But over the long haul, he was a menace and a terror, especially combined with Ortiz. It is hard to say if Ortiz would have put up the numbers he did for so long without Manny behind him. Take Ortiz and his diminished capacity and remove Ramirez completely and the Red Sox are ordinary at the plate. And good pitching, like the Yankees showed this series, will exploit ordinary in ways the Red Sox have not been exploited in years.
It will be interesting to see where Boston goes from here. They are now only tied for the wildcard with the Rangers and the Bay Rays are right behind. The Red Sox still have some of the best pitching in the majors. After this series, it will be fascinating to see if it is enough.
Game Picks - Monday: August 10, 2009
Holy Cow, as Phil Rizzuto used to say. A third straight 5-10 day. How sweet it isn't. After a swinging July, August has been downright scorched for this picker and there seems to be no end to the massacre. Wow!
The laughing continued with the Twins. If you caught this feature yesterday, the Fan was making fun of himself for his continued bedevilment at the hand of this team. It goes on and on each and every night and after the Fan got Pavanoed on Saturday, he got Home Run Bakered on Sunday. Add the Twins fits with the Brew Crew and a Nationals' eight game winning streak, and the Fan is slobbering all over his keyboard like some member of Red Sox Nation after this lost weekend.
Thankfully, there are only ten games on the schedule for Monday, so it is statistically impossible to go 5-10 again. Let's see what mischief is waiting for us on Monday:
That's it. Please let better days prevail!
Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 5-10
Month: 56-68 Ugh!
The laughing continued with the Twins. If you caught this feature yesterday, the Fan was making fun of himself for his continued bedevilment at the hand of this team. It goes on and on each and every night and after the Fan got Pavanoed on Saturday, he got Home Run Bakered on Sunday. Add the Twins fits with the Brew Crew and a Nationals' eight game winning streak, and the Fan is slobbering all over his keyboard like some member of Red Sox Nation after this lost weekend.
Thankfully, there are only ten games on the schedule for Monday, so it is statistically impossible to go 5-10 again. Let's see what mischief is waiting for us on Monday:
- The Orioles over the A's: Guthrie is supposed to be the ace of this staff. It would be nice if he had a game like one. Many of the Orioles' young hitters might have seen Gio Gonzalez in the minors, so maybe that will help too.
- The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Will this be a Yankee let down after their big series, or will they be undone by Mitre. Either way, it feels like a loss.
- The Marlins over the Astros: Nick Johnson makes Florida better, but they still run Bonafacio out there too much. Golly, he is awful.
- The Tigers over the Red Sox: Three problems for the Red Sox here: 1) They are demoralized. 2) They have Penny starting. 3) Jackson starts for Detroit.
- The Cardinals over the Reds: Lohse should be better than Cueto, who the Fan has given up on.
- The Rockies over the Cubs: Somehow the Cubs won last time with Gorzelanny starting. It won't happen again.
- The Diamondbacks over the Mets: The D-backs are at home and since the teams and their starters are basically even, we'll go with that.
- The Bay Rays over the Angels: Garza has been good. But the Bay Rays have their chance and they are frittering it away. They need to get going.
- The Mariners over the White Sox: The Mariners are getting to be like the Twins for the Fan...a mine field.
- The Dodgers over the Giants: Going with Kuroda over Sanchez. The Dodgers better stop coasting.
That's it. Please let better days prevail!
Yesterday: 5-10
Week: 5-10
Month: 56-68 Ugh!
Sunday, August 09, 2009
Still Rooting for Josh Hamilton
Speaking of Jeff Passan, he wrote a fair piece on Josh Hamilton, who as everyone now knows, fell off the wagon recently and was caught publicly in a bar in some compromising situations. Passan, as well as all of us that root for humanity, were disappointed that Hamilton fell off the wagon. It's difficult to state the hope that Hamilton represented. The one thing to remember is that Hamilton had an episode. He did not have a complete bender.
The Fan is familiar with addiction. Having first hand knowledge of the subject in family matters, there is no greater and more stressful horror than a loved one who cannot seem to lick such a situation. For those like us who are familiar with such horrors, Hamilton represented hope, but also worry because we know what can happen.
Who knows why good young people (and good old people) fall into such a trap. Lives are ruined, families are wrecked and it is never pretty. Some day, the Fan may be able to get everything out on the page of what he has experienced on the topic. But for now, let's just say that the heart goes out to Hamilton and prayers are being said for him and his family.
It's far too easy to judge Hamilton. Those that judge have not experienced the horror that is addiction. From one who has seen it first hand, there is no judgement here. There is only immense hope that Hamilton can be surrounded by his support system and find new resolve in this situation.
The Fan is familiar with addiction. Having first hand knowledge of the subject in family matters, there is no greater and more stressful horror than a loved one who cannot seem to lick such a situation. For those like us who are familiar with such horrors, Hamilton represented hope, but also worry because we know what can happen.
Who knows why good young people (and good old people) fall into such a trap. Lives are ruined, families are wrecked and it is never pretty. Some day, the Fan may be able to get everything out on the page of what he has experienced on the topic. But for now, let's just say that the heart goes out to Hamilton and prayers are being said for him and his family.
It's far too easy to judge Hamilton. Those that judge have not experienced the horror that is addiction. From one who has seen it first hand, there is no judgement here. There is only immense hope that Hamilton can be surrounded by his support system and find new resolve in this situation.
Tower of Babel Lego House
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has never been a favorite writer. For one thing, he is much too young to be such a self-righteous writer. That is usually reserved for older writers like Buster Olney. But the Fan wandered over to his column yesterday and read an entertaining piece called, 25 things you didn't know about baseball. First of all, what is it with titles not being capitalized? But getting past that, the article was about Passan discovering FanGraphs, the amazing statistical enterprise that is one of the best things about being a baseball fan in our era. As the title suggests, Passan lists 25 statistical facts that surprised him from his experience at FanGraphs. The Fan was grooving with him until the very end when the one weakness of relying solely on stats revealed itself. Passan was at least smart enough to hit upon it too.
The stat was about the six hitters in baseball that do not have a vulnerability on any pitch. Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter, Adam Jones were listed. Fair enough. But then the last one listed was Skip Schumaker. Skip Schumaker? Now be honest, if it was bases loaded, two outs, in the bottom of the ninth with the Cardinals trailing by a run with Trevor Hoffman on the mound, would Skip Schumaker be the one guy you hoped would come up to bat to get the big hit for the Cardinals? Maybe. But maybe not.
Passan is awfully young to just be starting to be turned on by statistics. No offense, but young folks should be all over that new aspect of the game. Us old fogies are understandable if we are a bit late in getting on the ball. The Fan is one of the latter and is having fun getting a new education on what these new metrics tell us. But...and this is a big but...us old fogies are still not convinced that these metrics tell the full story. Maybe a story will be illustrative here.
The Fan's neighborhood is rather nice and on a hill overlooking rolling farmlands. All of the lots of an acre and a half and it's a nice spot. There was only one lot left in the development and it was a corner lot right next to the Fan's. It sat as an empty lot for a few years and the Fan hoped it would stay that way. But the developer finally sold it to a young whippersnapper the Fan knew. This young guy, a computer programmer, was one of those guys who was too young to know that you never really know more than ten percent of what you should know.
After he bought the lot, the Fan saw him walking around his property and went over to say hello. The Fan mentioned that the lot would be difficult to get a foundation in the ground. The Fan's favorite subject in college was geology. You had to take one science for the English degree and chemistry is too much math and biology was too...uhh...gross. So geology it was. And it was fun! Well, the Fan could just observe the landscape of this lot and it was a funny shaped mound and the Fan knew it was a classic moraine. A moraine is where a glacier just dumps a bunch of rock and leaves it there. The young programmer insisted that he had done some tests and had all the data and it would be fine.
Well, the basement contractor showed up and started digging with his equipment. But sure enough, after only a couple of inches, they hit solid rock and couldn't dig any further. And so, the entire foundation was built above ground, all ten feet of it. Then the two story, prefab house showed up in two pieces and they put that together in one day on top of this foundation. The Fan came home from work to suddenly discover that next door to his once lovely neighborhood now had this towering monstrosity next door which incidentally blocked out a once beautiful view of each night's sunset. The Fan and his wife now affectionately call the thing the Tower of Babel Lego House.
The young programmer had all the data, but the Fan had observation. The Fan isn't discounting the data or the stats and metrics we now have. They are very useful and powerful and the Fan enjoys them. But they don't tell the entire story. There are intangibles that can't be measured, at least not yet. And observation is still a powerful thing. The Fan wrote a piece recently about the MVP type year Chone Figgins is having with the Angels. Figgins is having the type of year that the metric folks love. But Figgins has been "observed" for a long time and in the right playoff situation, a power pitcher is going to have a fairly easy time getting him out. He isn't as scary as he sometimes looks.
Don't know if this posts makes any sense. But there is room in baseball for metrics and for observation and if anyone discounts one or the other, then they aren't seeing the whole story.
The stat was about the six hitters in baseball that do not have a vulnerability on any pitch. Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter, Adam Jones were listed. Fair enough. But then the last one listed was Skip Schumaker. Skip Schumaker? Now be honest, if it was bases loaded, two outs, in the bottom of the ninth with the Cardinals trailing by a run with Trevor Hoffman on the mound, would Skip Schumaker be the one guy you hoped would come up to bat to get the big hit for the Cardinals? Maybe. But maybe not.
Passan is awfully young to just be starting to be turned on by statistics. No offense, but young folks should be all over that new aspect of the game. Us old fogies are understandable if we are a bit late in getting on the ball. The Fan is one of the latter and is having fun getting a new education on what these new metrics tell us. But...and this is a big but...us old fogies are still not convinced that these metrics tell the full story. Maybe a story will be illustrative here.
The Fan's neighborhood is rather nice and on a hill overlooking rolling farmlands. All of the lots of an acre and a half and it's a nice spot. There was only one lot left in the development and it was a corner lot right next to the Fan's. It sat as an empty lot for a few years and the Fan hoped it would stay that way. But the developer finally sold it to a young whippersnapper the Fan knew. This young guy, a computer programmer, was one of those guys who was too young to know that you never really know more than ten percent of what you should know.
After he bought the lot, the Fan saw him walking around his property and went over to say hello. The Fan mentioned that the lot would be difficult to get a foundation in the ground. The Fan's favorite subject in college was geology. You had to take one science for the English degree and chemistry is too much math and biology was too...uhh...gross. So geology it was. And it was fun! Well, the Fan could just observe the landscape of this lot and it was a funny shaped mound and the Fan knew it was a classic moraine. A moraine is where a glacier just dumps a bunch of rock and leaves it there. The young programmer insisted that he had done some tests and had all the data and it would be fine.
Well, the basement contractor showed up and started digging with his equipment. But sure enough, after only a couple of inches, they hit solid rock and couldn't dig any further. And so, the entire foundation was built above ground, all ten feet of it. Then the two story, prefab house showed up in two pieces and they put that together in one day on top of this foundation. The Fan came home from work to suddenly discover that next door to his once lovely neighborhood now had this towering monstrosity next door which incidentally blocked out a once beautiful view of each night's sunset. The Fan and his wife now affectionately call the thing the Tower of Babel Lego House.
The young programmer had all the data, but the Fan had observation. The Fan isn't discounting the data or the stats and metrics we now have. They are very useful and powerful and the Fan enjoys them. But they don't tell the entire story. There are intangibles that can't be measured, at least not yet. And observation is still a powerful thing. The Fan wrote a piece recently about the MVP type year Chone Figgins is having with the Angels. Figgins is having the type of year that the metric folks love. But Figgins has been "observed" for a long time and in the right playoff situation, a power pitcher is going to have a fairly easy time getting him out. He isn't as scary as he sometimes looks.
Don't know if this posts makes any sense. But there is room in baseball for metrics and for observation and if anyone discounts one or the other, then they aren't seeing the whole story.
Game Picks - Sunday: August 9, 2009
Sometimes you just have to laugh. Those Twins...those amazing and beguiling Twins. This picker hasn't picked a Twins game correctly since Spring Training it seems. Every time they are expected to win, they lose. This picker gives up and predicts them to lose, and they win. And then the whole cycle continues again. Their latest accomplishment was to lift Carl Pavano from the Indians. Yeah, Carl Pavano. The Fan laughed. The Fan made fun of the deal. The Twins put him into the rotation immediately and started him last night. The Fan was finally going to get a Twins pick right. Except Pavano threw a shutout. Yeah. Carl Pavano. Sometimes you just have to laugh.
As yesterday unfolded, the Fan did a lot of laughing. Yes, the Yankees pick was correct. Yes, the Padres, Cardinals and a couple others was correct. But Marquis lost. The Cubs won a game with the equally beguiling Dempster. Danny Haran lost to the Nationals, who have somehow managed two put together a rather long winning streak. Ian Snell made a start for the Mariners. The Fan was rooting for him. He walked six batters in the first inning. Yup. Lots of laughing. It sure beats crying.
Let's try this again. Oh boy:
Yesterday: 5-10 (still laughing)
Week: 42-52 (still laughing)
Month: 51-58 (starting to cry)
As yesterday unfolded, the Fan did a lot of laughing. Yes, the Yankees pick was correct. Yes, the Padres, Cardinals and a couple others was correct. But Marquis lost. The Cubs won a game with the equally beguiling Dempster. Danny Haran lost to the Nationals, who have somehow managed two put together a rather long winning streak. Ian Snell made a start for the Mariners. The Fan was rooting for him. He walked six batters in the first inning. Yup. Lots of laughing. It sure beats crying.
Let's try this again. Oh boy:
- The Twins over the Tigers: The cycle begins again. But Baker really should be better than Jarrod Washburn. He just should be. Really.
- The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Roy Halladay is pitching. PLEASE be a lock!
- The Cardinals over the Pirates: Pineiro should beat Zack Duke.
- The Marlins over the Phillies: Not only has Josh Johnson been a very good pitcher, but he's hit three homers. Of course he only has six or seven hits total, but when he connects...
- The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Come on, this Nats' winning streak has to end some time.
- The Brewers over the Astros: Hate to pick against Wandy, but he was hurt last time out. Which is worrisome.
- The White Sox over the Indians: Not feeling too up about this pick. But it didn't feel any better the other way either.
- The Royals over the A's: Two young pitchers: Hochever versus Anderson. Anderson has some great stuff, but Hochever is maturing at last.
- The Cubs over the Rockies: Wells has been consistent and seems to be the Cubs' good luck charm.
- The Angels over the Rangers: As much as the Fan would want it not to happen, there is no way that Holland beats Lackey.
- The Mets over the Padres: Santana versus Stauffer. Stauffer makes great frozen dinners, but Santana should win.
- The Giants over the Reds: When is the last time Harang pitched well?
- The Braves over the Dodgers: Vazquez over Stults. If the Braves snuck into the wildcard, they would be dangerous.
- The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Kazmir has looked like his old self lately and Rowland-Smith doesn't have an old self.
- The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Red Sox take out their frustrations on Andy Pettitte and Lester shuts the Yanks down to salvage one game out of this disaster.
Yesterday: 5-10 (still laughing)
Week: 42-52 (still laughing)
Month: 51-58 (starting to cry)
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