Girardi is Not Going Anywhere

Leave it to the New York and Chicago media to blow up a story that isn't even a story. As the excellent blog, Sliding Into Home relates, Joe Girardi is going to talk to the Chicago media but you can predict what he is going to say, "There is no story." His first responsibility is to the Yankees and the Yankees are not going to lose him to the Cubs. For crying out loud, he's the reigning World Series Championship manager.

Of course the story appears because Girardi doesn't have a deal worked out for next year. But he will. As the linked post mentions, Girardi has a good relationship with the Steinbrenners and will get his paycheck after the season. Ryne Sandberg is going to be the next Cubs' manager and Girardi will be back in pinstripes next year.

Personally, the Fan thinks there are better field managers during the game than Girardi. He makes some moves that make little sense from time to time. But he has two things going for him. First, he is the first to admit when he screws up. Second, his players really like him. Mark Teixeira has been in print as saying that Girardi is the best manager he's played for...and remember, Teixeira played for Bobby Cox.

This story isn't a story and should die a quick and putrid death.

Since Buck Showalter Took Over...

Since Buck Showalter took over the Baltimore Orioles:

• The Orioles are 12-9.
• Brian Matusz is 4-1 with a 2.32 ERA.
• Matt Wieters has improved his rate of catching base stealers.
• Felix Pie has raised his batting average 27 points.
• Jeremy Guthrie is 2-2. Hey, that's an improvement!
• Brad Bergesen is 2-0.

He's making a difference. The Orioles are no longer the joke of the American League.

Should Felix Hernandez Win the Cy Young Award with a .500 Record?

All of the top contenders in the American League for the Cy Young Award have had rough Augusts. Jon Lester has had a series of bad outings and was replaced last night in the rotation by Wakefield. Cliff Lee has had several bad outings for Texas. Greinke has never been a factor this year. Jared Weaver has been great, but just good lately. That leaves Liriano, who has a big game against Texas tonight and Felix Hernandez. What about C. C. Sabathia? His MO is to win without pitching gems. His forte is keeping the Yankees in the game long enough for the Yankee sluggers to win the game. He is nowhere near as dominant as the others mentioned here.

The problem for Hernandez is that he is 10-10, which is really a shame because if you look at all his stats, his year is remarkably similar to last year's 19-5 season. Fangraphs rates his value just barely under Liriano's and that doesn't take into account his big win over Boston in Boston on Wednesday night. But Hernandez leads the American League in innings pitched and batters faced. And yet, he has a 2.47 ERA. In fact, his combined ERA over the last two seasons is 2.49. How's that for consistent pitching?

Everything about Hernandez screams Cy Young except for his record. He's going to finish over 200 strikeouts again. He has given up 7.6 hits per nine innings after leading the league in that category a year ago with 7.5. His walks per nine are the best of his career. His WHIP is under 1.13. What else can a guy do? And he beats good teams. He has beat the Red Sox, he's beat the Yankees three times this year. He's beat the Padres, the Reds and the Twins. In only three of his outings this year has he given up over three earned runs and yet his team (which is terrible) is only 13-15 during his starts. He didn't get a single win in May.

Last year, Hernandez lost the Cy Young to Zack Greinke, who had an amazing year. Greinke didn't have as good a record as King Felix, but the voters went with the best stats. That was a breakthrough of sorts. Perhaps if Hernandez has a good September, the same will hold true for this year.

Game Picks - Thursday: August 26, 2010

A real mixed bag for yesterday's picks. The Red Sox split their double header in exactly the way they were predicted. The Rangers beat the Twins and San Diego won again. The Orioles were correctly picked to beat the White Sox and the Cubs are perfect in the P.P.E (post-Piniella era). But there were surprises. The Pirates beat the Cardinals again. Houston beat the Phillies. The Rockies came from a 10-1 deficit against the Braves with most of the damage done against the previously infallible Venters. And so the day ended just barely above .500, which is about all you can ask for with all those surprises.

Eighteen of the thirty teams are in action on get-away-day. Here's how the Fan sees them:

• The Astros over the Phillies: Wandy Rodriguez has been terrific, plus he's a lefty. Kendrick goes for the Phillies.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Mazzaro should be better than Masterson, who has yet to put things together.
• The Brewers over the Dodgers: Gallardo gets the win and a hit or two.
• The Blue Jays over the Tigers: Scherzer has been terrific of late, but Romero should be better and the Blue Jays have a better offense.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Taking Ian Kennedy over Correia.
• The Rangers over the Twins: The sweep gets completed as Cliff Lee out duels Liriano.
• The White Sox over the Orioles: Arrieta hasn't been impressive. Jackson has been since joining the Pale Hose.
• The Mets over the Marlins: In a squeaker, Niese beats Sanchez.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Cardinals over the Nationals: Carpenter is back on top of his game. The Nationals feature Zimmermann making his first start of the year. Book it.

Yesterday: 9-7
Week: 33-21
Month: 183-135
Season: 1084-790
Games of the Day: 71-55

Journalism At Its Worst

A year ago a blogger by the name of Jerod Morris suggested that there was something fishy about Raul Ibanez and the big first half he had for the Philadelphia Phillies. Morris made a huge splash and was invited by many media outlets to attend interviews. Morris, no doubt, figured that this was the kind of exposure all bloggers dream about. What Morris didn't figure on was the roasting he took from major media journalists and rightly so. The episode was the supposed dividing line between professional journalists and the rest of us bloggers. But now, a year later, a journalist...a writer for a major newspaper has done the very same thing.

Damien Cox writes for the Toronto Star. That's a newspaper. Therefore, he is a journalist...a professional. The blogging revolution has turned bloggers into stars and supposed journalists into bloggers. But the trouble with the latter is that the simple reader can't tell the difference between a news story and a "blog." The Fan asks you to click on this link for Damien Cox's "post" concerning Jose Bautista's sudden rise to power king of the majors. Right click here and open the thing in a new tab. Go ahead, the Fan will wait.

Okay? Got it? Now tell the Fan how this is any different from what Morris did last year with Ibanez? There is no difference. And the thing is, this is a Toronto writer bringing up this crap with a guy who is thrilling the hometown fans!? Correct the Fan if he is wrong, but the idea of a journalist speculating on something so arcane without a hint of evidence or backing information (other than the obvious stats), reeks of everything against what they teach at university. The problem for Cox is that he thinks he can play both sides. He feels (obviously) that he can be a journalist sometimes and a blogger sometimes. As a blogger, he is free to speculate...to shoot the breeze...to scat-write. He feels this is different than his "serious" reporting when he has to get his facts right and check everything twice.

The thing is, journalism doesn't work that way. And again, the difference is how people read newspapers or what newspapers post on-line. They expect to get the news from writers they trust. They expect sourced materials and accurate sources. They expect the utmost professionalism from the writers in newspapers. If Cox wants to blog and shoot the breeze, he should get a separate site where he can talk about anything he wants. But if he wants to raise the specter of steroids on a player who, as far as we know, is tested regularly and has never failed a test, he can't do that in his professional capacity.

Putting aside the lack of professionalism of a paid journalist, how irresponsible is it for anyone to hang an accusation on a player? Would it be any different if his column speculated that Vernon Wells was gay or that Kevin Gregg was a communist because of their actions on the field? Right. It's the same thing and it's irresponsible. Now multiply that by putting this label on a player for his hometown team. Jose Bautista is one of the best stories to hit the Blue Jays for a very long time. And this guy is going to tear it down?

Guys like Rosenthal did their best to paint Jerod Morris as the reason why bloggers will never be journalists. Where are those guys with this story? Who among his peers is going to call out Cox? Bloggers have won folks. We have taken over the world. Because of what we do, respected journalists have become bloggers and the lines have become blurred. But if that's going to be the case, wouldn't you at least expect journalists to take the higher ground? Cox should go back to the school he graduated from and let the dean there spank him until he bleeds.

Game Picks - Wednesday: August 25, 2010

This picker slept late this morning and is quite groggy. So that's a word of caution to any who look at the following picks with any kind of money involved (and the Fan knows you're out there). The Fan did manage a nine correct, five incorrect day with a rain out in Boston. That's not bad. Can't seem to get a Reds game correct these days. The Mets pulled a rabbit out of hat. And the biggest, "What the Heck!" of the day was the Pirates beating Wainwright and the Cardinals. Why is it that at times the Cardinals can't hit a lick? Crazy.

Anyway, here are Wednesday's picks. Remember, you've already been warned:

• The Braves over the Rockies: The Braves are a terrible road team. But Jurrjens should be decent wherever he pitches and the Rockies counter with Rogers, who is iffy.
• The Tigers over the Royals: The Tigers are playing good ball these days and Galarraga had a good outing last time out. The Royals counter with O'Sullivan.
• The Reds over the Giants: It's come down to this for this Reds' series. When the Fan says they'll win, they lose. When he says they will lose, they win. The gut says that Bumgarner will shut them down, but the recent results indicate that Bailey will win the game. In other words, who the heck knows.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners (1st game): Still think Beckett will beat Pauley.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox (2nd game): King Felix has been unhittable lately and will beat Lester.
• The Phillies over the Astros: The Astros won yesterday but face Halladay today. Happ makes his first start against his old team which could make it interesting.
• The Cubs over the Nationals: The Cubs look like a different team these last two days. Was it Piniella? Anyway, Dempster over Marquis.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Again. Niemann is back and will beat Haren.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Don't know what the heck happened yesterday, but Westbrook will beat McCutchen.
• The Athletics over the Indians: Two similar pitchers, both ground ball types. But Cahill hasn't faltered in a long time. Talbot has more often than not.
• The Mets over the Marlins: Misch has been terrific with an 0-2 record to show for it. Time for a win.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Two great young pitchers in Hughes versus Cecil. Going with Hughes at home.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Like Kuroda's chances much better than Wolf's.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Duensing has a bad game. Wilson has a great one. Rangers win.
• The Orioles over the White Sox: Matusz is coming on now and the Orioles can get to Buehrle.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: LeBlanc over Saunders who is having a tough time in Arizona.

Yesterday: 9-5
Week: 24-14
Month: 174-128
Season: 1075-783
Games of the Week: 70-55

Damon Won't Go to Boston

Despite having David Ortiz and Jason Varitek sing their best rendition of, "Please Come to Boston," Damon decided to stay with the Tigers. The Red Sox claimed Damon on waivers and Damon had a contractual option to decline such a move. The Tigers were no doubt trying to dump a little money now that they are out of the race, but they are the ones who wrote the contract that allowed Damon to make this decision. More power to him. In the end, Damon decided to stay where he was happy.

It probably didn't help the Red Sox' cause that they are a real long shot to make the playoffs at this point. You can't count them out of course because there is a month of baseball left including a lot of head to head games with the Yankees and the Bay Rays. Perhaps Damon also knew that you can never really go home again. What occurred during 2004 was a once in a lifetime thing with the Red Sox. It was a special time and place and you are never going to be able to replace that experience by going back and trying to recreate it.

There are many who state that Damon is a couple more seasons away from gaining enough counting stats to be Hall of Fame material. While he may get those counting stats, it gets more improbable every year as the teams he is playing for have been playing him less and less. Boston for example, already had a DH in David Ortiz, so Damon couldn't take that option. It even seems a little less probable that Damon would have fared much better in left field that what the Red Sox are already throwing out there every night. Damon is probably more eligible for the Hall of Very Good than the Hall of Fame. He's been a tremendous player and has helped every team he has played for. But was he ever close to being the best player in his league? No. Was he ever considered close to the best at his position? No. He's been great, but not great enough.

His most likely comparison is Paul Molitor. Both had speed. Both were liabilities in the field. But Molitor was the much better player and was among the league leaders many times in offensive categories. Damon just isn't that kind of player. But, at the same time, you can perfectly understand the Red Sox wanting him. He is, by all accounts, a great teammate. He has a knack for delivering at the key moments when a team really needs such a moment. He provided that for the Yankees in the post season last year. He provided that for the Red Sox in 2004. He's a pro and he knows what to do. He would have helped the Red Sox.

But the reward possibilities just weren't enough for Damon to consider uprooting himself and his family in the middle of the season. He calls Miguel Cabrera the best hitter he's ever seen (Damon played with Manny in his prime you'll remember). He wants to watch Cabrera for a full season. He's having fun in Detroit. He wants to stay there. The Tigers gave him that right. Let's hope it all works out for all of them.

Athletics Are Not a Fun Team to Face

The Oakland Athletics, or the A's as most like to call them, haven't been in contention at any point in this season. In fact, it took the team almost two thirds of the season just to pull into second place and a .500 record. But despite all that, they aren't a fun team to have to face. They pitch really well and they field the ball really well. At the plate? Well, two out of three ain't bad.

Let's look first at Oakland's biggest strength. They sure can pitch. They lead the American League in Earned Run Average, Runs allowed, Hits allowed and Earned Runs. They don't strike a lot of guys out. Only Dallas Braden has a K/BB ratio over 2 (an excellent 3.18) unless you include Brett Anderson, whose season has been limited by injuries. They pitch to contact (when they aren't walking people, which they do a little too often) and let their fielders get the outs. Trevor Cahill has exploded this year and currently sports a terrific 13-5 record. His WHIP is under 1.

But is Cahill that good? Well, it depends on how you fall on the luck/skill debate. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) this year is .210. Holy cow! The Fan has never seen one that low on a pitcher. So, you could say he's been extremely lucky. Or you could say that Cahill has been extremely effective at inducing outs. He has nearly a two to one ratio of ground balls to fly balls and he induces ground balls 57% of the time. His batting average against or BABIP on ground balls is an astonishing .111. But here is another thing; Cahill's line drive percentage is only 15.6 percent. That's fantastic and means that he's hard to square the bat against.

Gio Gonzalez is also having a break out year. After another fine performance on Tuesday night, his has improved his record to 11-8 and his ERA is down to 3.24. His K/9 is a healthy 7+ but he walks too many guys still. If he can cut down on his walks (and he did Tuesday night with only one), he could be a really bright star for the A's. Gonzalez is also excellent in keeping the ball in the yard with only ten homers given up.

Dallas Braden has already shown his promise with his perfect game. Forget the immature A-Rod thing, if you put his season in perspective, he got into a funk after the perfect game and didn't win for a long time. But now he is winning again and has looked very impressive. His K/BB ratio is the best among the A's starters. Braden has by far the best control on the staff and his 1.8 walks per nine is fantastic for a young pitcher. Like Cahill and Gonzalez, Braden has been stingy on giving up the long ball.

What really helps the pitching staff is the fielding. Barton is excellent at first. Ellis is among the best at fielding second. Pennington has been outstanding at short. Kouzmanoff is better than adequate at third. Since they were able to take Cust out of left field, Rajai Davis has found a home out there and is a much better left fielder than center fielder. Gabe Gross has been tremendous filling in for Sweeney who is great in right when he is healthy and in center, Coco Crisp has really displayed what he has always displayed and that is--when healthy--he is one of the best center fielders in the game. That fielding combined with the pitching makes one super sized out machine.

And the offense has gotten better in the second half. Is it a good offense? Hardly. They only have two regulars with an OPS+ over 100: Cust and Crisp. But they are certainly better than they were in the first half of the season. They have a positive run differential in the second half, and that's a healthy sign.

Let's face it, the Athletics need to get out of Oakland where they are whithering in a ball park not suited for baseball. They get little fan support because of their stadium and without being able to contend, it's hard to convince fans to come to that crumbling edifice. But just as the fans don't want to come to Oakland, opposing teams don't want to go there either. The A's are a fun team and they are competitive. They are certainly a lot more fun to watch than a lot of other .500 teams.

Game Picks - Tuesday: August 24, 2010

The picks have to be quick today because the Fan has to run to Houlton first thing this morning. Ugh. Not even time for coffee. The Fan does have to admit here that he was totally wrong about Coleman. My, that foot tastes good.

Tuesdays' picks:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Wainwright. Pirates. Does the Fan need to say more?
• The Athletics over the Indians: Carmona has not been close to competitive lately. Gonzalez gets the win.
• The Nationals over the Cubs: The Cubs showed up last night and should be picked again today with Zambrano on the mound. The only problem is that Lannan has been terrific of late.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Porcello isn't a great pick, but he's better than Davies on his good nights.
• The Phillies over the Astros: The bullpen can't keep giving games away, but Hamels should win.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Two young pitchers. Giving the Yankees the edge at home.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Dickey certainly is one of the stories of the year, but he runs into Josh Johnson here.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: Even Beckett can beat the Mariners.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Take Lilly as a better plant than just a plain old Bush.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Thinking that the Rangers can get to Pavano while Lewis holds the Twins down for the second straight night.
• The Rockies over the Braves: The road is the Braves Achilles Heel. And Lowe is worse on the road too. De La Rosa gets the win.
• The White Sox over the Orioles: Guthrie has been good of late. But this is the White Sox we are talking about.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Rodrigo Lopez goes for the D-backs. Not saying any more.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Even Wade Davis can beat the Angels' line up. Santana goes for the other team.

And the Game of the Day

• The Reds over the Giants: Wood is the better young pitcher than Sanchez.

Yesterday: 6-4
Week: 16-9
Month: 165-123
Season: 1066-778
Games of the Day: 70-54

Jose Bautista is on Top of the World

Watched a lot of the Blue Jays - Yankees game that included two homers by Jose Bautista and there is no denying that Bautista is the supreme power hitter in baseball this year. His pitch recognition is lightning quick, his approach is simple and he is just crushing the ball. Bautista accounted for all three Blue Jays' runs in a game the Blue Jays won 3-2.

The Fan has chronicled Bautista in the past, so there is really no need to go into the player's history. Suffice it to say that this is a combination of a player who was willing to break down his approach and listen to his batting coach and everything has really clicked. Bautista had never before hit over 16 homers and he now has 40. But that's not his only relevant number. He's also set a career high for walks and has a healthy On Base Percentage near .370 despite a weak .257 batting average. 51% of his hits this season have been for extra bases. He now has 95 runs batted in and his slugging percentage, as you could guess is approaching .600.

Right now, Jose Bautista is not a guy you want to throw a mistake to or he's going to make you pay. Against the Yankees' rookie starter, Ivan Nova, he got a rolling curve ball that stayed in the middle of the plate and punished it. That homer gave the Blue Jays a 2-1 lead. Except it should have been 1-1 if not for a horrible call at first base on the previous batter. Nunez, the Yankees' rookie shotstop ranged deep in the hole to fetch a grounder and used the carpet at the dome to get the throw to Teixeira. The throw was a bit wide and Teixeira had to stretch as far as he could and did. The replay clearly showed the the Yankees' first baseman kept his foot on the bag. But MLB hasn't yet smartened up to replay and the incorrect play stood. That run made all the difference in the final outcome of the game.

Before we get back to Bautista, let the Fan make a quick point here about umpires in the majors. The Fan has watched a lot of baseball over the years and the umpiring this year is the worst ever. EVER. The home plate umpire was simply awful on balls and strikes for both sides. The Blue Jays' shortstop got himself thrown out of the game because of the lousy calls and then in the ninth, Gregg got a big out after a base hit by Swisher on a hugely terrible third strike call on Granderson. The pitch had to be a foot outside if it was an inch. Look, just because the pitcher hits the target, which Gregg did on a pinpoint, that doesn't mean it is a strike. Come on! Terrible. Simply terrible.

Anyway, back to Bautista. The game was tied 2-2 after a Posada double plated Cano. Roberston, the Yankees' ace set-up guy, struck out the first guy he faced and then had to pitch to Bautista. The first pitch was a perfect fastball on the outside corner which is where you have to pitch to Bautista. Cervelli called for the same pitch. But Robertson's pitch missed badly and drifted over the plate. Bautista crushed it. Ballgame.

One little side not about the homer. Bautista got brushed back on a previous at bat and he wasn't happy about it. Well, that's part of the game and if he doesn't want that to happen, he's got to stop hitting homers. That's the deal. You hit a lot of homers, you're going to get brushed back. Baseball. Well, anyway, Bautista wasn't happy about it and a fracas was narrowly avoided. When Bautista hit his eigth inning homer, he was ver demonstrative and stared at the pitcher and then made an "in your face" kind of display at the plate. Hey, no problem. The Fan happens to think there should be more demonstrative stuff in baseball, not less. But stay tuned. Bautista is going to get drilled some time later in this series. Expect it. And there will probably be a fight because if Bautista gets mad at a brushback, what's he going to do when he is actually drilled? It will happen and then let the fun begin.

But in the meanwhile, Jose Bautista, who has persevered through a less than adequate career, has at the age of 30, arrived and he has arrived in a big way. He is approaching the league lead in RBIs and he's the major league champ at the big ding dong. He has found himself in Toronto and he is on top of the world.

Contemplating the Twins' Chances

The Fan watched a lot of the Twins - Angels game on ESPN on Sunday night and there is a lot to like about that team. For one thing, they put a lot better line up every day out there than they did at any point last year. It would be nice for them to get Morneau back but he's not as important to the team as Mauer is. Velencia is an exciting young player and he is certainly a step up on Punto. Hardy is probably the best shortstop the Twins have had since Smalley. Kubel and Thome can still rake and Delmon Young has become a really good player.

And it was also a warm fuzzy to see how well Baker threw. He hasn't exactly lit up the big screen with his pitching this year. But he was good against the Angels. But then again, it was the Angels, not a very good hitting team. His performance the rest of the season is more indicative of what kind of pitcher he is. And the bullpen did well in the two innings they were called on to pitch. Capps is a nice addition, but he's no sure thing as a closer. Duensing improves the rotation, but weakens the bullpen. Liriano is breaking down a bit and will be skipped a start. Blackburn is one of the worst starters in the league. Slowey is now hurt. Pavano is good. Really good. But he's not an ace.

And the bullpen is scary. They are tenth of fourteen American League teams in saves. Capps isn't a significant upgrade on Rauch. They have some decent guys but no fireballers. And that really is the essence of their pitching staff. They are tenth in the league in hits allowed and tenth in the league in hits against. In other words, they don't scare you and they can be had.

Last year, the Twins didn't have enough post season offense. This year, they may not have enough post season pitching. The Fan still can't see them beating Tampa Bay or New York in a playoff series in 2010.

Take Care, Lou

One longtime, faithful reader of this site accused this writer of being biased against Lou Piniella which colored the thinking that went into the writing here. The truth couldn't be further from the comment. Piniella has been loved in this corner. As a product of New Jersey, Lou Piniella was a hero. Not the graceful Don Mattingly kind of hero. But the Joe Everyman kind. He looked more like a beer league softball player than he did a ball player and yet his passion and his effort made him an effective player on teams this Fan rooted for. He then managed the home town team and his antics as a manager were similar to his playing days and we ate it up. He was cheered when he won in Cincinnati and he was rooted against when he went to Seattle. He was pitied in Tampa and then rooted for in Chicago. And he came really close in Chicago. So there is no joy here in his retirement. There is no joy that his managerial career went out with a terrible team playing terrible baseball. There is relief.

The experience was similar to the recent Ken Griffey situation in Seattle. It was obvious that the game had passed Griffey by. We all wanted to see one last hurrah. But there were no hurrahs left in his body. It was a relief when he was finished at last. The very same thing is felt in Piniella's situation. He was simply a tired old manager in charge of a tired old team and saddled with a tired old front office. It was obvious in the Cubs listlessness. They slept walked through half the season. They looked beaten down and demoralized. Sometimes emotional problems in the clubhouse energize a team. In the Cubs case, it sapped the life out of the Cubs as surely as morphine saps the life out of a poor and tired cancer patient. There is no blaming Piniella from this side of the keyboard. There was just the knowledge that the satiation was beyond him and there was nothing he could do to turn it around. He no longer had the emotional fire. You can't blame a guy for that. You just wish it wasn't so.

The real blame here goes to his general manager. Piniella should have had a deal worked out at the end of last year's season for him to bow out gracefully. Hendry should have insisted on it. If it all blew up, the results would have been the same. Fresh blood would have been in the dugout and Piniella would have had hard feelings. A person in leadership situations like Hendry has to know. A leader has a finger on the pulse. But the Fan has to admit that as a former leader himself, sometimes situations get away from you and you are too slow to act. Hendry was way too slow in this case. And call the Fan a  cynic if you want to, but Hendry did finally act. Piniella and Hendry surely had conversations and Hendry told Piniella that the team was going in a different direction next year. That's how the whole retirement thing started in the first place. Today's decision was just as surely based on Piniella's concern for his mother, but if Piniella was still in the plans for the future, Hendry would have worked out something with Piniella so he could go take care of his mom. Right?

This also had to be a case of Piniella knowing he was done. When the fire is gone, the proud always know. Because it's the pride that fuels the fire in the first place. Piniella knew as simply as this Fan knew and just as certain as most Cubs' fans in the stands each night knew. It was time. Piniella was no longer the right man for that job and at least he got to go out with his dignity intact.

But don't believe the retirement statements. Piniella just needs some time away. Or he needs a different situation. In many ways, Piniella is a younger Don Zimmer. He's a lifer and he'll find a job somewhere in the game he loves. He may never manage again, or he may. But he'll be around. Joe Everymen don't ride off into the sunset. They just sit in their recliner a while until that becomes unbearable too.

The Fan has been hard on the Cubs this season. But rightly so. The players mailed it in. Piniella was tired and couldn't rise to the occasion and the front office put together one of the worst mishmashes of a team in the history of the South Side. A bloated payroll of non-winners kept on beyond their primes and bad move after bad move heaped on top of each other. Finally having the right end to the Piniella story is a step in the right direction. The Fan will leave it in the Cubs ownership's hands on what should be done with Hendry. The Fan has his opinion but without access, it's all nearsighted and can hardly be adequately judged. It sure hasn't looked good. Let's just put it that way.

As for Lou, this Fan is highly relieved. The Fan thought he was finished in Tampa Bay, but he mustered enough mojo for a couple of years in Chicago and came real close to pulling off a miracle. But the mojo was gone and it was like watching Mohamed Ali boxing in his last days. It was sad and distressing. But thank goodness, it's over. Take care, Mr. Piniella. Take care of your family and try to enjoy yourself for a while. And thanks for the memories.

Game Picks - Monday: August 23, 2010

You would think the Fan would be happy with a 10-5 picking day. But the Fan is not happy. After the early games, the Fan sat at 9-1. The later games and the Sunday Night Game of the Week then went 1-4. It was similar to hitting the green in regulation and then three-putting (something the Fan did with regularity this weekend). Kershaw was good. But Arroyo was better. Somehow Jared Weaver and Scott "Homerun" Baker have the same exact won-loss record. Santana pitched a complete game gem...and lost...to the Pirates. Hudson was fantastic. But so was Chacin. Okay, okay. Stop crying. Nobody cares anyway. Sheesh, be a man already. The Fan will take 10-5 every day for the rest of the season.

What does Monday look like? It really is the dog days of August as there are still ten games schedules for Monday:

• The Nationals over the Cubs: The Cubs couldn't even show up on Lou's last day. Now they will lose to Livan as the young and guileless Coleman gets whacked around again.
• The Royals over the Tigers: Chen is better than Bonderman. What a crummy sentence that was to type.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Pirates break Ohlendorf's heart again and can't score against a lifeless Lohse.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: The Yankees are starting Ivan Nova, a 23 year old for the Dominican Republic. He was 12-3 in Triple A with a 2.86 ERA. But it looks like it was done with mirrors. Going with Morrow and the Jays.
• The Phillies over the Astros: Blanton versus Myers. Didn't Myers just pitch the other day? Golly, the days are just blending together.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: The Red Sox are still good enough to beat the bad teams. Lackey over Fister.
• The Braves over the Rockies: Hudson over Hammel in an alliterative match up.
• The Rangers over the Twins: The Twins have to travel after a night game. The match up says Liriano, but Gardenhire said on Sunday that Liriano was skipping a turn. Blackburn will probably pitch. Ouch.
• The Giants over the Reds: Don't trust Volquez. Cain needs to have a good game though and he's been struggling.

And the Game of the Day

• The Bay Rays over the Angels: The Angels look dead. Shields over Kazmir.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 10-5
Month: 159-119
Season: 1060-774
Games of the Day: 69-54  (two game losing streak)

Game Picks - Sunday: August 22, 2010

Yesterday was one of those see-saw days when each correct answer led to an incorrect one. For every Yankee win, there was a Braves loss. For every Nationals win there was a Rangers loss. It went on like that way all night until the Fan ended up dead square at .500. Let the Fan make this perfectly clear: There is nothing worse than mediocrity. What the heck, Cliff Lee? What the heck, Rockies, why can't you get Ubaldo any runs? The Rockies have scored one run in his last two starts. That sucks, my friends.

Cone on, Sunday! Put a better taste in the mouth today:

• Houston over Florida: The Marlins have brought up Andrew Miller to pitch today. He has a 14-21 MLB record with an ERA of 5.50 and a WHIP of 1.66. Enough said.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Sabathia gets win number 17.
• The Phillies over the Nationals: Oswalt isn't Kendrick and Olsen isn't Strasburg. What a difference a day makes.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Gomez has been great for the Indians but Verlander is due for a big game.
• The Mets over the Pirates: The Pirates are going to overtake the Orioles for the number one pick in the country. Santana is going to help that happen.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Buchholz to the rescue. What a great season he's had.
• The Padres over the Brewers: The Brewers have been tough this series, but Garland should beat Parra.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Hunter needs to get his act together after three bad starts, but the Rangers should get to Millwood early and often.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: Zito has a bad day and Garcia makes the Giants' lineup look like the Grateful Dead.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Greinke should have a good game. The question is whether the bullpen can get to Soria.
• The Cubs over the Braves: Wells has never lost to the Braves and he pitches much better at home.
• The Bay Rays over the Athletics: Garza has been very good lately. Braden is good but won't throw another perfect game against the Bay Rays.
• The Dodgers over the Reds: Kershaw over Arroyo in a good match up. Take the Dodgers at home.
• The Angels over the Twins: Got to go with Weaver over Home Run Baker.

And the Game of the Day

• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Okay, Rockies, if you won't win, then we'll let Hudson get his fourth win of the season over Chacin.

Yesterday: 8-8
Last Week: 56-39
Month: 149-114
Season: 1050-769
Games of the Day: 69-53

The Major League's Least Effective Starters in 2010

Think of these as the anti-Cy Young pitchers. Yesterday we featured the worst ten hitters in the majors based on Fangraphs and baseball-reference.com valuations. It was our anti-MVP awards or LVP if you will. Today you will see the ten worst starters in the majors in 2010. To qualify for this special honor, the pitcher will need to have pitched 100 innings. That is unfortunate, because the least valuable pitcher in the majors this season has 98.1 innings pitched.This poor guy is dead last in the majors in valuation with a -3.4 WAR (wins above replacement). Since each "Win" is worth around $4 million, then this pitcher (who pitches for the Mariners by the way) would be worth $-13.2 million. Man, that's harsh. But the young man is disqualified because he is an inning and a third short of our artificial limit. The innings limit also leaves out four of the highest paid pitchers in the bottom 15 in value in the majors: Marquis, Beckett, Oliver Perez and Kyle Lohse.

The top ten (or bottom ten) worst starters in baseball this year are:

1. Nick Blackburn - Minnesota Twins. Blackburn was actually rated in ERA+ above league average last year and the year before. But that was a bit of a mirage. He gave up 240 hits in 205+ innings last year. His 240 hits (basically, he pitched to Ichiro all season) were the highest in the league. That trend continued this year except he wasn't as lucky in those hits turning into runs. He ended up (The Twins pulled the plug on him) with the scary ERA of 6.66. He hada WHIP of close to 1.7. Blackburn is a pitcher whose H/9, BB/9, HRs/9 all went up in each of the last three years while his strikeouts per nine went down each year for the last three. His ERA+ this year is 64 and his valuation is -1.4 in WAR.

2. Justin Masterson - Cleveland Indians. Masterson's valuation is -1.4, so he actually ties Blackburn in that category and he has thrown more innings. This kid is really a puzzle. He has the stuff. He just can't get it to translate into big league performance. His WHIP is 1.63 which is really high. He's walked 4.1 batters per nine while giving up 10.5 hits per nine. Not a good combination.

3. Scott Feldman - Texas Rangers. This one really hurts because the Fan really likes Feldman. But he's had an awful season and his valuation sits at -1.1. His WHIP is 1.589. He's given up 11.5 hits per nine innings. He simply could not replicate his season of a year ago and the Rangers finally pulled him from the rotation.

4. Joe Blanton - Philadelphia Phillies. Blanton has had two decent starts in August but even in those decent starts, his hits per nine innings mirror what he's done all season. Blanton has given up 11 hits per nine innings this season combined with a hefty 1.4 homers per nine. Blanton's walk rate is excellent but if the batter gets the bat on the ball, they fall in safely...a lot. His valuation? -1.1

5. Manny Parra - Milwaukee Brewers. Parra's WHIP of 1.681 as high as it is, is an improvement over last year's horrendous 1.829. Parra gives up too many walks at nearly five per nine innings AND he gives up a lot of hits (10.6 per nine). His 1.4 homers per nine innings don't help any either. His ERA+ the last two seasons have been 63 and 73. Unfortunately, Parra is the poster boy of why the Brewers need starting pitching. Valuation: -1.0

6. Nate Robertson - Florida Marlins (released) Nate Roberston is probably the most expensive guy on this list at $10 million in salary this year. And he got his 100 innings in there before the Marlins had seen enough and designated him. His stats are actually hidden a bit by an effective May. But in his eight last starts in June and July, he gave up nearly 7.5 runs per game. He just couldn't get anyone out during those eight starts and in July when the Marlins had seen enough, opponents had an .889 OPS against him. Valuation: -0.9.

7. Brian Bannister - Kansas City Royals. Bannister is a very popular player. He talks to fans and reporters. He writes well. He's very smart. he just doesn't get good results when he pitches. His ERA is close to 6. His WHIP is close to 1.6. His HRs/9 is 1.7. All numbers that would safely entrench him on this list no matter how smart and popular he is. Valuation: -0.8

8. Kevin Correia - San Diego Padres. Correia will tease you with a good start now and then, but over all, he's been terrible. He had another bad outing against the Brewers on Saturday night lasting only 4.1 innings. That's the trouble with Correia. He throws just enough good games to make you think he should keep getting the ball, but he shouldn't. His valuation is -0.8. His walks are up thise year as is his homer rate per nie.

9. Brad Bergesen - Baltimore Orioles. Bergesen has actually pitched well of late since Buck Showalter took over. He showed great promise last year. But this year has been a real mess. His ERA is close to 6. His WHIP is close to 1.6. His HR/9 rate is 1.5. Bergesen doesn't strike enough guys out to help himself. Perhaps he's turned a corner now. Valuation: -0.7

10. David Bush - Milwaukee Brewers. Bush had a good June and if it wasn't for that, his numbers would be really bad. They are bad enough with a WHIP over 1.5. He is walking more batters per nine this year than in previous years while striking out less. Not a good combination. His ERA at 4.63 is much better than it should be. He is pitching much the same as last year when he had an ERA+ of only 63 but he seems to be much luckier this year. Still, his valuation by B-R is -0.7.

There you have it. The worst starting pitchers in the majors this season (so far).

Game Picks - Saturday: August 21, 2010

It was another blah kind of day for baseball picks. There were more correct than incorrect. But not by a whole lot. Things might have looked a little better if the White Sox hadn't been rained out.against the Royals. But then again, it could have been worse. None of the big three in the AL East won. Tampa Bay's bullpen imploded. Burnett was awful (no surprise) and Lester had nothing (big surprise). There were some great picks like the Brewers over the Padres and the Cardinals losing. Nothing spectacular. Just another day of picks.

Perhaps Saturday will be more zestful:

• The Braves over the Cubs: Hanson gets the win over hard luck Gorzelanny.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Do the Yankees have enough starting pitching? Hmmm...But Vazquez should beat Vargas.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Got to pull for Strasburg. Can't help it.
• The Twins over the Angels: Slowey over Bell. Scioscia must be going crazy.
• The Mets over the Pirates: Niese should get the win here against McDonald, who has had some good moments.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: It will be another close game as the Orioles are patsies no longer. But Lee should win over Bergesen.
• The Astros over the Marlins: Wandy pitches a good game and Volstad continues to struggle.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Tomlin has been good for the Indians, but Scherzer is coming on strong.
• The Padres over the Brewers: Narveson is a great hitting pitcher. But he's no a good pitcher. Correia should win.
• The White Sox and Royals split their double-header. I know that's cheating, but hey, it's the Fan's site, right?
• The Cardinals over the Giants: Carpenter still looks like an ace. Don't know what Lincecum will look like.
• The Rockies over the Diamdondbacks: Still riding Ubaldo. He gave up one run last time out and lost.
• The Blue Jays over the Red Sox: Dice-K gets beat and Romero pitches a gem.
• The Bay Rays over the Athletics: Anderson is a tough customer, but the Rays counter with Price. The Bay Rays should get that kid Crowe. Then they would have T. Crowe Price.

And the Game of the Day

• The Reds over the Dodgers: Billingsley can be had and Cueto pitches well in the spacious Chavez Ravine.

Yesterday: 8-6
Week: 48-31
Month: 141-106
Season: 1042-761
Game of the Day: 69-52  This feature is on fire!

The Worst Hitters in Baseball This Season

Everyone is writing these days about who the favorites are for the Most Valuable Player Award. Many of those writers are "with it" and will tout the latest statistics to prove their points. Well, anybody can do that. This post instead will focus on the worst hitters in baseball in 2010. These guys are so bad that they better pack some pretty good leather to justify their existence. This list does not include fielding value however. We're just focusing on the worst of the hitters in the major leagues.Oh! And this list only includes guys who currently have enough at bats to qualify for the batting title. Not that any of these guys has to worry about that.

1. Cesar Izturis - Baltimore Orioles. This is hardly a surprise. The man has a 64 career OPS+. But he is outdoing himself this year. His OPS+ sits at 54. His line after 393 plate appearances? How about .241/.284/.279. Man. He has walked only 18 times and has 12 extra base hits. [[shudder]]  Fangraphs has his batting runs at -22.

2. Jose Lopez - Seattle Mariners. Lopez is the highlight...or lowlight of the Mariners woes at the plate. His season is somewhat surprising because he was at least a league average hitter in 2008 and 2009. But this year? Umm...How does a line like .241/.270/.337 grab you? He has 17 walks in 478 plate appearances. His OPS+ is 66 and FanGraphs gives him a batting runs of -19.8. Lovely.

3. Jason Kendall - Kansas City Royals. This doesn't surprise you does it? Kendall hasn't had a decent year batting since 2004. That's why the Royals went and got him. FanGraphs rates his year batting at -17.7. Kendall has a .299 slugging percentage in 459 at bats. The kicker is, he usually bats second in the lineup. Doh! He has 17 doubles. That's it. That's what he has for extra base hits. Oh, and he's stolen 10 bases...in 17 attempts. Attaboy.

4. A.J. Pierzynski - Chicago White Sox. The Fan used to think this guy was a pretty good hitter. But he hasn't been for a long, long time. His last season above league average was 2003. Peirzynski has trudged up to the plate 389 times and has a .279 On Base Percentage. Just 12 walks all year. That accounts heavily for his 68 OPS+. FanGraphs rates him at -15.8. There is no way that this guy is going to earn the nearly $7 million he is making.

5. Orlando Cabrera - Cincinnati Reds. Lots of shortstops and catchers on this list. It used to be that the shortstop was always the weak hitter. But then along came Ripken and A-Rod and the position changed...for some teams. Cabrera is at -14.5 on FanGraphs. Cabrera has somehow managed to put in 14 seasons in the majors despite having a grand total of18.5 WAR in all those years. That works out to about 1.3 a season. He has a lifetime OPS+ of 85. This year he's at 72 in 453 plate appearances.

6. Clint Barnes - Colorado Rockies. It's hard to understand how the Rockies cut Hawpe loose and kept this guy. At least Hawpe was a league average hitter. Barmes isn't even close. FanGraphs ranks his results this year at -13.9. His OPS+ is 73 in 395 plate appearances. But at least we have a second baseman to break up the monotony. The sad part is that this isn't Barmes worst year at the plate. In 2006, Barmes came to the plate 525 times and finished with a 47 OPS+. That's awful.

6. Alcides Escobar - Milwaukee Brewers. Hey! We got another shortstop here. Escobar has to qualify as ad disappointment. The Brewers really thought he was a better player than this. But he comes in tied with Barmez at -13.9 on FanGraphs. His OPS+ is 78 in 429 plate appearances.

8. Ryan Theriot - Los Angeles Dodgers/Chicago Cubs. The Riot started the year at short for the Cubs and them moved to second when Castro came up. It didn't matter. He didn't hit no matter where he played. He ended up with a 68 OPS+ for the Cubs. He's doing a little better for the Dodgers, but The Riot is a fun guy, but he needs to be a utility guy. There is no way to justify giving him 500 to 600 plate appearances. He's just not that good.

9. Cristian Guzman - Nationals/Rangers. Guzman is your typical decent average but nothing else kind of guy. He used to have a lot of speed and hit a lot of triples. But that's a thing of the past now. He was at 88 OPS+ with the Nationals until they traded him to the Rangers where he absolutely tanked, getting three hits in 37 plate appearances. That brought his OPS+ for the season down to 74. FanGraphs: -11.9.

9. Jeff Francoeur - New York Mets. There was a lot written in the New York press about Francoeur not being happy about his playing time. But come on! A .289 On Base Percentage doesn't lie. Not after 412 plate appearances. Francoeur has had only one full season in his career with an OPS+ over 100. And that was just barely. This season, he comes in with a tie with Guzman. He holds the distinction as the worst non-catching, non-infielding hitter in baseball this year.

Honerable Mention: Nyer Morgan, Yadier Molina, Aaron Hill and Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Game Picks - Friday: August 20, 2010

Things didn't look very good at the start of the day and this picker was in a deep hole. But the late games pulled through and the Fan ended the day at .500. Normally, that would not be a happy condition, but at one point, the Fan was at 2-6 and dying on the inside. Thank goodness the A's beat the Bay Rays and the Dodgers got the expected gem from Lilly. On the flip side, the Fan even mentioned the possibility of a Matusz gem and that's exactly what happened as the Rangers lost again. Hamilton has gone cold as have the rest of the Rangers' bats.The Mets left young Misch in there one inning too many. He was great until the seventh inning and had a 2-0 lead. But his manager just sat in the dugout while the young pitcher lost the game. 3-2. Inexcusable. The Mets need to clean house. Are you listening Wilpon?

And so it's on to Friday:

• The Braves over the Cubs: This year can't get over fast enough for the Cubs. Jurrjens wins.
• The Indians over the Tigers: Can't feel good about either team or either team's starters (Galarraga, Masterson). But one of the teams has to win.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Wilson versus Arrieta. Wilson looks better every start. He'll win.
• The Mets over the Pirates: Pelfrey over Karstens. Not even close.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: Hard to pick against King Felix and to pick for Burnett, but call the Fan crazy.
• The Astros over the Marlins: Houston has been playing well. The Marlins are as always, a puzzle.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Can't pick against Lester no matter how much it hurts. Cecil won't be enough.
• The Brewers over the Padres: LeBlanc is probably the Padres softest starter. Gallardo is the Brewers' best starter. Makes sense.
• The Twins over the Angels: Dueinsing gets run support as the Twins shake off last night's debacle.
• The Giants over the Cardinals: Maybe the Fan is all wrong and the Cardinals aren't as good as thought. And now they have Pedro Feliz. Ewww. Bumgarner over Westbrook.
• The White Sox over the Royals: Jackson has been awesome for the White Sox. O'Sullivan is decent, but not enough here.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Really thought the Rockies would roll in the second half, but they've been sleepwalking. Kennedy over Rogers.
• The Bay Rays over the Athletics: Hellickson is a stud. Mazzaro is very good, but not as good as Hellickson.
• The Dodgers over the Reds: The Dodgers are on a roll, especially at home. They get to Homer Bailey.

And the Game of the Day

• The Phillies over the Nationals: Halladay versus Marquis? Yeah, that looks like a lopsided win.

 

Yesterday: 6-6
Week: 40-25
Month: 133-100
Season: 1034-755
Games of the Day: 68-52

Josh Beckett IS Struggling

In the last post, the Fan made the case that Cole Hamels is just as good this year as ever despite his 7-10 record indicates. Josh Beckett, on the other hand, is not faring well this year and you have to wonder after he gave up six runs in 6.1 innings on Thursday night against the Angels, what is going wrong with him. He has missed significant time to the disabled list this year and perhaps he isn't physically right still. Whatever the case may be, he's not having fun these days.

On the surface, Beckett looks good. His K/9 are down slightly but are still impressive at 8.1. His walks are up slightly. But there are a couple of keys to Beckett's problems. First, he can't seem to avoid the big inning. Thursday night was no exception. He was sailing along until the sixth inning when he gave up four runs. He gave up two the following inning before he was taken out of the game. The game before that, the Yankees touched him for five runs in the fifth inning.

One statistic that bears out his problem is a stat called leverage. The statistic looks at game results and measures how well a player did in tough situations (close games, late innings). In Beckett's career, he has given up an OPS against of .783 in those situations. Considering the tension involved, that's a good figure. This year, in high leverage situations, his OPS against is .963.

The other standout feature for Beckett this year is his line drive percentage. His career average is 19%. This year it's at 23%. When your line drive percentage increases by 4%, they you are getting knocked around a bit.

The sample size for Beckett this year is small because of the injuries. So it is hard to say if Beckett has really fallen off his game. Next year, when he gets another full year of starts, should be telling. But in Boston, amid all the hype and hoopla, everything is magnified and Beckett's struggles are glaring. You can point to a lot of injured Red Sox this year and measure them all in games lost. But probably the biggest factor between past years and this year is not having Beckett keeping the team in the game when he has been unavailable and when he has been available.

Cole Hamels Is Not Struggling

What do the Save, RBIs and Win-loss records for pitchers have in common? All are considered overrated statistics. Those debates have been raised on this site before and we won't (at this time) rehash them. This Fan still believes those stats are important. But we have so many other stats now that we can augment the old reliables with the new and get much more complete pictures of players than ever before. If ever a pitcher could be a test subject for the win-loss thing, Cole Hamels is a fascinating test case. Probably the most fascinating this side of Zack Greinke. Hamels lost again on Thursday night and is now 7-10 on the season. Terrible right? What happened to this guy, right? The answer is simple. He is not terrible and there is nothing wrong with him. His record is myopic.

First, there is run support. In Hamels 25 starts, the Phillies have scored two runs or less ten times. They have scored five runs or less, 19 times. Last year was similar. In 23 starts out of 32, the Philles scored less than five runs. Nine of them were less than two runs. In 2007, when Hamels went 15-5, the Phillies scored more than five runs in 13 of his 28 starts. Not surprisingly, he was 10-0 in those starts. It's easy to have a good winning percentage when your team is getting you a lot of runs.

Last year, easily Hamels worst statistically, his strikeouts per nine innings was 7.8, the same as the year before when he went 14-10 with a 142 ERA+. His walk rate was down and was the best of his career. This year, with an even worse won-loss record than last year, his strikeouts per nine are sitting at 9.2, the best since his rookie year. His walks are slightly up. Well, a little more than slightly up at 2.8 compared to his career mark of 2.4 per nine innings (last year was 2.0). But that's really not a smoking gun, is it?

When Hamels went 15-5 in 2007, his line drive percentage was 16.6%. In other words, in 16.6% of batters at bats against Hamels, they hit line drives. Last year, that percentage was 17.3%. That's up slightly, but not significantly. That statistic is up a little more dramatically this year and sits at 20.3%. But more of those line drives have been caught this year than last year and more were caught in 2007 than in 2009 (judging by BABIP).. Hamels' home runs per nine innings was below his career average last year (1.1 to 1.2) and up slightly this year (1.3). But again, nothing significant there.

BABIP fluctuates for Hamels from year to year. This year it's at .298 or about what you would expect and league average. Last year, it was .321 which is unlucky. In 2008, his best statistical year when his ERA+ was the highest of his career and his WHIP was the lowest, he had a BABIP of .262. So much more of the balls hit against him were caught in 2008 than this year and last year.

This year, in a year when he is 7-10, his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are in line with this 2007 and 2008 seasons. That means he is just as good a pitcher now as he was in those two years when he had good winning records. His ERA+ is 120 this year, a good figure and well above league average.

Cole Hamels is only 27 and believe it or not, this coming season will be the first that he is arbitration eligible. He only seems to have been around a long time. His won-loss record is deceiving and all statistics seem to show that he is pitching just as well or in some cases, better than his "good" years. His WAR and ERA+ are just slightly under C. C. Sabathia's and Sabathia is 16-5. Hamels simply isn't the guy on the mound when the Phillies have their hitting shoes on. He's still a very good pitcher despite what the surface stats tell you.

Game Picks - Thursday: August 19, 2010

The summer continues to fly by (that's what us old people say all the time) and another night is in the books. It was a good picking day with twice as many correct answers as incorrect and the Game of the Day was correct too thanks to a monumental and colossal meltdown by the Arizona bullpen which gave up eight runs in the last two innings to blow what has been a laugher to that point. So of the lowlights for the day included the Dodgers, Indians, Cardinals and Rangers all losing games the Fan expected them to win. The Cardinals were a particular shock since Wainwright was pitching and only gave up three runs. But the Cardinals couldn't score. It was a good night for closers (Arizona not withstanding) as Papelbon, Aardsma, Nunez, Soriano and Soria all getting saves. Mariano Rivera pitched the ninth in a non-save situation. And the best news of all, Trevor Hoffman got a save which is a happy thing even if it cost this guy a pick. He is one more closer to 600.

Thursday has a petty full slate for a usual off day. And several of them are day games. Here we go:

• The Braves over the Nationals: Lowe is always a better pitcher at home and the Braves are one of the best home teams. Lannon was good last time out.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: Hughes should get the win over Porcello as the Yankees take three of four from the faltering Tigers.
• The Padres over the Cubs: Zambrano was better last time out and should be stronger this time too. But Latos has been lights out for the Padres.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Matusz is always capable of pulling off a gem, but the Rangers just got swept by the Bay Rays and will be mad as heck.
• The Pirates over the Marlins: This is just the kind of game the Marlins always lose. Sanabia versus Maholm. And yes, Hanley Ramirez is still batting lead off. Stupid.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: The Angels salvage a game of the series as Santana beats a bewildering Beckett.
• The Phillies over the Giants: The Phillies build their playoff push while putting a dagger in the Giants' hopes. Hamels beats Sanchez.
• The Royals over the Indians. Okay, the Fan gives up picking Cleveland. Davies somehow beats Talbot.
• The Mets over the Astros: Misch is a mystery with an 0-1 record despite a 1.50 ERA. Norris shouldn't be able to hold the Mets' offense.
• The Twins over the White Slox: Pavano does his thing. The Twins somehow get to Buehrle and the Twins build their lead to six games.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs had their chance last night and blew it. Today, Wood will blow them up and the Reds will get enough runs against Saunders.
• The Athletics over the Bay Rays: Cahill is excellent. Sonnanstine is a fill in starter. The Bay Rays are a long way from home.

And the Game of the Day

• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Ted Lilly gets the Dodgers another win. Too bad they didn't have him sooner when it might have mattered.

Yesterday: 10=5
Week: 34-19
Month: 127-94
Season: 1028-749
Games of the Day: 67-52

Is Age Catching Up With Ichiro?

Ichiro Suzuki is in his tenth season with the Seattle Mariners and once again he is batting over .300. But it's a quiet .300. His slugging percentage is the lowest of his career. His OPS+ is the second lowest of his career. The fielding statistics show him to be down from last year (but still very effective). His batting average (.309) is the lowest of his career. He will likely make it to 200 hits again for an incredible run of ten straight seasons, but he will have to hustle to get there as he needs 46 hits with 42 games to go. But he'll likely finish at 205 to 210. His career average is 229. So that will be off. The question is: Is Ichiro Suzuki, at 36 years of age, getting old?


Well, let's see. He's stolen more bases this year than last year. He's been caught stealing less. On the other hand, he is striking out at a higher rate than his career average. Ichiro has struck out 10% of his lifetime at bats. This year, he is striking out around 13.6% of his at bats. It's time to look at the splits and see if anything can be detailed that would helps us.

Ichiro has been a slightly better hitter his entire career versus left-handed pitchers than the other side. That figure is surprising. This year is no different. Ichiro hits equally well at home or on the road and this year is no different. In Ichiro's career, he's only a .295 hitter when the Mariners lose. But this year he is actually a better hitter when the team loses. So that defeats any theory that being on such a terrible team has defeated his will or his drive. That doesn't appear likely by these statistics.

If you look at Ichiro's career, his batting average is similar for every inning he bats. In other words, over the years if he bats in the first inning (which he always does since he leads off), his average is little different than if he bats in the third inning or fourth or fifth and so on. This year, though, he's only batting .246 in the first innings. Does that mean anything? Maybe.

Ah, but there is a statistic that seems to indicate that Ichiro has shown his age a bit. During Ichiro's career, he has batted .314 with a .785 OPS against power pitchers, .327 with an .805 OPS against pitchers with an average fastball and .343 with an .820 OPS against finesse pitchers (all stats according to baseball-reference.com). The strikeouts against each category of pitchers were all the same career-wise. His batting average for balls in play (BABIP) against all three of those types of pitchers has been around .350.

This year, Ichiro is still hitting finesse pitchers at a .333 pace with an OPS of .803 and is at .314 against average fastball pitchers with a .731 OPS. His BABIP is .390 against finesse pitchers and .347 against average fastball pitchers. But Ichiro has really struggled with power pitchers. His average is .246 against them and his OPS is .640 with a BABIP of .306. This would seem to indicate that Ichiro can't hit a good fastball as well as he has in the rest of his career. That might also explain his struggles in the first inning when starters try to establish their fastball early.

Of course, this could all be a statistical anomaly for Ichiro as last year, he hit .379 against power pitchers with an incredible .454 BABIP. So he was either incredibly lucky against them or he just nailed them all year. In either case, Ichiro is still an effective player. He's probably not worth the $18 million the Mariners are paying him with a 106 OPS+ (just barely above league average) and a paltry 2.4 WAR (FanGraphs has his WAR listed at 3.0 because they rate his fielding higher than B-R does). According to FanGraphs, there are 18 more valuable right fielders as batters than Ichiro. But his fielding--according to FanGraphs--brings up his value to fifth among that group.

It is reasonable to suggest that at 36, Ichiro is not the player he was five years ago. That wouldn't be unusual or any kind of knock on the Japanese star. Nothing can take away his history as a one of a kind hitting machine. It's just a simple reminder that time marches on even for players as good as Ichiro.

The Amazing Padres

There hasn't been one intelligent baseball writer in the world that hasn't expected the Padres to fall down at some point this season. We're still holding our breath. But our faces are turning all shades of colors because the Padres have refused to fall down. Their 1-0 win over the Cubs was the perfect representation of their season. They scored their one run on a ground out in the first inning. They got only three hits all night. But they won the game as the Cubs did not score. You may say that the Cubs looked listless and you may have been correct. But even so, the Padres won the game. The Padres have won more games than any other National League team thus far. Amazing. Here are some pertinanent facts you should know about the Padres:

• They could finish the season one game under .500 in their remaining 43 games and still win 93 games.
• The Padres are 24-16 in one run games.
• They are 22-8 in blowout games which is defined as a win by more than five runs.
• They have a better winning percentage in the second half than they did in the first half. So much for that theory.
• The Padres' rotation has made 117 starts in the Padres 119 games. They won both the starts their regular rotation didn't figure into the results.
• Their pitching is first in the NL in hits allowed, runs given up and ERA.
• The Padres have four relief pitchers with sub 2 ERAs.
• As a team, the Padres have 2.55 K/BB ratio.
• The Padres are second in the National League in stolen bases and they are successful 73% of the time.
• The Padres are first in the NL in fielding efficiency and third in fielding percentage.
• Their catchers have thrown out 37% of base stealing attempts.

There is no way anyone could have expected this to happen. There is no way that anyone would have believed it if you told them in advance. The Padres have 43 games left. If they can hold on and win the division, it will be one of the biggest baseball stories of the year.

Game Picks - Wednesday: August 18, 2010

Yesterday was a struggle but ultimately, the Fan ended up three games in the black. Hunter had a second straight really bad start. The Cardinals couldn't hit (except for Pujols). The Orioles were probably a dumb pick. Morrow pitched well, but the other guy pitched better. Santana lost, giving up a homer in the eighth. But fortunately, more went according to plan than against it. The Padres are incredible.

Wednesday's Picks:

• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Wolf versus Wainwright. The latter will pick up his 18th win.
• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Holland is a wild card. If he throws well, the Bay Rays won't hit him. Shields has been a mess lately.
• The Padres over the Cubs: Richard wins his 11th and the Padres score against Coleman and his 8+ ERA.
• The Athletics over the Blue Jays: Gonzalez versus Rzepcynski (Ha! the Fan typed it!). Gonzalez has been really good this year and will shut the Jays down.
• The Phillies over the Giants: The Phillies simply know how to win big games and this one is for the wild card lead. Blanton over Cain.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: Pauley and Guthrie both have been very good lately. Going with the O's.
• The Marlins over the Pirates: Josh Johnson struggled last time out but should win. Ohlendorf will once again be the hard luck loser.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: The Tigers are 12 games under .500 on the road. Bonderman doesn't scare anyone. Moseley does well enough to win.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Hudson versus Livan. Hudson is creeping up on Cy Young consideration.
• The Red Sox over the Angels: Kazmir has been okay as of late but Lackey and the Sox get the win.
• The Mets over the Astros: How can you pick against Dickey? Every time the Fan does, he gets burned.
• The Indians over the Royals: Like Carmona over Chen. Well, don't really like either one, but one of them has to win.
• The Twins over the White Sox: Liriano slams the door shut on the White Sox.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Taking Kuroda over Hammel. The Dodgers still play well at home.

And the Game of the Day

• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: When was the last time Rodrigo Lopez threw a good game? Enough said.

 

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 24-14
Month: 117-89
Season: 1018-744
Games of the Day: 66-52

Three Stars Return - One Does Well

The Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves all got a lift tonight as the three teams got star players back from the disabled list. All three teams still alive playoff aspirations and even though two of the players did not perform well (rust was evident), it had to be a big lift in the psyche of those teams.

Martin Prado returned for the Braves and he had a heck of a night. He went three for five with three runs scored and two runs batted in. He hit his 30th double of the year. In fairness to the other two players, Prado hasn't been out nearly as long and it doesn't look like he missed a beat.

Dustin Pedroia, on the other hand, has been out a long, long time. Tonight was his first night back after missing two months with a broken foot. Pedroia went hitless in five at bats and made an error in the field, both events being unusual for him. To the Fan's knowledge, he didn't play at all in the minors to get back or if he did, it wasn't very much. Rust has to be evident. But still, Pedroia is a winner and a force on the field and the Red Sox have to be glad he's back.

Chase Utley returned to the Phillies after an extended stay on the disabled list. He too went hitless on a night that the Phillies pounded the Giants. Utley is one of the brightest stars in the league and probably the best second baseman in baseball. The Phillies have to be glad to see him back. Now all they need his Mr. Howard to return and they will be back to full strength.

It's probably not a coincidence that all three teams won their games on Tuesday night. They probably would have even without the trio. But for three teams fighting like heck to get to the playoffs, three returning stars had to be a sight for sore eyes.

Thinking About Bryce Harper

As you've probably heard, Bryce Harper, the Nationals' number one pick and the number one pick in the country, signed today with the Nationals for just under $10 million. The total is the highest ever for a non-pitcher and is more than Mark Teixeira received all those years ago. The Teixeira deal worked out and now we'll have to see it all turns out. There is one major difference though. Bryce Harper has painted himself into such a position that he'll either be a big star or a monumental bust. The difference? His own hype machine.

There has never been a story like Bryce Harper in baseball. The only time the Fan can recall a similar situation was when Bo Jackson signed to play baseball and when Bob Horner signed with the Braves. This is that kind of deal. Harper was on the cover of Sports Illustrated at the age of 16. He quit high school two years early to go to junior college and get a head start on getting drafted. Every move has been plotted and scripted. Scott Boras has been a willing participant in the making of Harper's image. Now all Harper has to do is live up to the hype.

But that won't be as easy as it was for Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg only has to throw the ball in such a way so the batter can't hit it. Strasburg has done that most of the time. He was low key in his approach. The build up was media painted and not self-painted. Harper is nothing like that. The young man has built this day for several years. Now all he has to do is deliver.

The thing about Strasburg and his debut is that nobody knew how it would all work out. Strasburg said all the right things. He just wanted to fit in. He just wanted to contribute. When he pitched against the Pirates and struck out 14 batters, it was an event that won't be soon forgotten. Harper won't get the ball every fifth day like Strasburg. He won't be overly protected with pitch counts and Joba-like rules. Once Harper gets his chance, he'll be in there every day and will have to grind it out as an every day player and he'll either sink or swim. He doesn't have any other options.

But first he has to prove himself in the minors. He will have to prove he can be given a shot. Harper isn't anything until he produces. That's the difference between the star-making machine in basketball and other sports where a guy gets drafted, goes right to the pros and he's quickly a part of a team. In baseball, you have to prove you belong by doing well in the minors before you'll even get a chance to shine in the majors. That's one part of the Harper hype machine that can't be scripted away. Well, it can be, but he has to perform and prove he's the player the Nationals think he is.

$10 million is a lot of money. It's especially a lot of money for a player who hasn't proven a thing. It's a huge gamble. But if it pays off, Harper could be worth every penny.

Game Picks - Tuesday: August 17, 2010

The Fan has been a bit distracted this week. The Fan's son moved to Florida a week ago today and today, the Fan's daughter started her first day of high school. Ah, where does the time go? The combination can be the Fan's excuse for blowing up in picks yesterday. It actually wasn't a disaster with four correct and four incorrect, but it was a failure in these eyes. Suddenly, the Yankees can't hit. The Marlins are like pulling a slot machine lever. You never know what you're going to get and it's bad more often than it's good. Houston blew a save. And the Rangers strangely left Cliff Lee in there too long until he blew the game. But there is always today.

Tuesday's Picks:

• The Phillies over the Giants: Zito won't be enough to hold off Oswalt and the Phillies.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: Yes, even Millwood will win a game. French goes for the Mariners with a side of fries.
• The Marlins over the Pirates: Yeah, the Fan knows what he just said. But in a perfect world, Nolasco should beat Duke. It's just not a perfect world.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: Verlander versus Sabathia in a marquee match up. The odds of Sabathia holding the weak-hitting Tigers is stronger.
• The Braves over the Nationals: Minor is a risk of a pick as a greenhorn, but the Braves should score enough to win.
• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Garza versus Hunter in another good one. Garza has been only so-so since the no-no. Hunter was cuffed up good his first start, but he's a good pitcher.
• The Padres over the Cubs: Yet another improbable Garland win. Wells goes for the Cubs.
• The Red Sox over the Angels: Buchholz has become a stud this season. Weaver is a tough opponent though.
• The Mets over the Astros: Santana should shut out the Astros. Meanwhile, the Mets face old friend, Figueroa.
• The Indians over the Royals: The Royals aren't exactly playing well behind Greinke and Mr. Gomez is 3-0 for Cleveland.
• The Twins over the White Sox: Taking the Twins at home. But Baker versus Danks is no picnic.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Interesting game. Hudson has been great for the D-Backs and Arroyo is having his best year for the Reds. Very interesting game.
• The Blue Jays over the Athletics: Another tough game to pick. Previous no-hit pitchers have struggled after their gems, so Morrow could too. And Braden has been good of late for the A's.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: The Dodgers aren't going to make the playoffs but they can help the Rockies not get there either. Kershaw wins over Chacin.

And the Game of the Day

• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Garcia versus Bush seems like a mismatch. Plus, Pujols and Holliday are on fire.

 

Yesterday: 4-4
Week: 15-8
Month: 108-83
Season: 1009-738
Games of the Day: 66-51

Some Quick Observations

With nothing else penetrating the deep mind of the Fan, or perhaps due to too little sleep over the last week, post ideas seem a little shriveled tonight. With no clear cut ideas at hand, how about some quick observations before the Fan hits the sack:

• Francisco Cervelli has 22 hits in his last 121 at bats going back to the end of May. That's a .182 un-hot streak. His OBP during that time is .227. Yuck.
• Robinson Cano has cooled off as well from a torrid start. The big difference? Luck. His BABIP in July was .258 and it's .286 in August. If he can just get that back to .300, he'll finish strong.
• Man, has K-Rod really screwed up or what? It's tough when good players make bad decisions.
• Getting Jhonny Peralta for a pennant run is one thing but being stuck with him after falling out of the race? Brutal. He's batting .196 since joining the Tigers and he's had to play nine games at short. Ugh.
• The Padres have played 117 games and the same five starters have started 115 of them. Those starters average just under six innings per game putting three innings every night into the hands of the bullpen. The Padres have five relievers with more than 40 appearances and Ryan Webb has 39.
• The Fan has made fun of Gorzelanny in the past, but he never really sucks when he pitches. He's a fighter and keeps the Cubs in games. They just don't win enough of them.
• The Marlins have to be one of the most frustrating teams on the planet. Their pitchers all look great one outing and stink up the joint the next. Volstad threw a shutout last time and got beat badly by the Pirates, a team that had lost seven in a row entering the game.
• And yes, Hanley Ramirez is still batting lead off. What a waste.
• Wandy Rodriguez has thrown two straight gems but has nothing to show for it as the bullpen has been atrocious.
• If Ike Davis is the first baseman of the future, why start sitting him against left-handers when the Mets have no shot in the race? Wouldn't you want the kid to get as many reps against lefties as possible?
• Could the Dodgers' closer situation be any worse? They pulled Broxton and put in Kuo who failed in his first attempt against the Braves. Dotel came in and poured gas on the fire. Broxton could have done that himself.
• Will Manny Ramirez end up in New York? Not with the Red Sox blocking things if they try.
• No matter how good the Rangers have been this season, it doesn't seem possible that they could beat New York or Tampa Bay in the playoffs.
• It seems that since the Orioles got Buck Showalter, they've played in extra innings every night. They played another long one on Monday night. At least they are now good enough to be tied at the end of regulation. That's an improvement.
• Speaking of the Orioles, thirty-five year old, Koji Uehara has been superb in relief. He's pitched 25 an a third innings and has struck out 32. He's only walked five guys. A 6.4 to 1 K/BB ratio is pretty good, eh?

A Post Appreciating Jim Thome

One of the crimes of the steroid or PED era in baseball is that players who really stand above the crowd have gotten washed out for what they do. Jim Thome has been a fabulous power hitter his entire career (let's face it, he was a lousy fielder) and at the age of 40 is still a big-time contributer for the Minnesota Twins.

Thome was supposed to be a role player this season. He signed for only $1.5 million with the Twins after making over $138 million in his career. The Twins already had a DH in Kubel who had a good year last year. But injuries and lack of performance elsewhere led to Thome getting in the line up regularly, especially in the last two months, and he has proved that he is as much a threat now as ever. His OPS is his highest since 2007 and his OPS+ is his highest since 2002. He is slugging .578 and his On Base Percentage is .387. Not bad for an old guy. And that's not just in a handful or small sample size. He is up to 248 plate appearances now.

There is no doubt in this Fan's mind that Thome is a Hall of Famer and should be a first ballot one. He has hit 1031 extra base hits in his career. He has a career On Base Percentage of .404. He's driven in over 1600 runs and scored over 1500. And if he is fortunate enough to play another year (something his play this year has given him a good argument for), he could end up with over 600 homers.

Sure, he played in the PED era and thus his stats are looked at with a jaded eye. Sure, he was a lousy third baseman and a lousy first baseman. But as a hitter? Forget about it. He's been great. And since testing has gone into place, the Fan doesn't really see a drop off in his production that can't be accounted for besides the inevetible age decline. He has hit 108 homers in the last five years in mostly part time duty the last couple of years. He is a tough out just like he has always been.

One of the reasons that the Twins haven't missed a beat since Justin Morneau went out with a concussion is that Thome has allowed Kubel to go to the outfield so Cuddyer could play first. All three are hitting well and the Thome has made the most of his playing time. He has a 1.060 OPS in his last 28 days despite a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .259. Imagine what he would be doing if he had been a little luckier! He is holding his own against left-handers with an .800 OPS (above league average). and as usual is killing right-handers.

The Fan can already hear the arguments against Thome when he hits the HOF ballot:

- Played in the PED era. Yeah, so did a lot of players. Were they as good as him?
- Was mostly a DH. Okay, but that's why they put the rule in there in the first place. Edgar Martinez isn't a Hall of Famer?
- Never won an MVP. He was in the top ten in voting four times and was in the top twenty six times.
- Was never considered as one of the best players in his sport. Says who? Okay, he made only five All Star Games. But there were always a lot of big slugging first basemen. How many of them will finish close to or over 600 homers?
- Only hit .222 during post season play. Yeah, but he hit 17 homers or one less than Mickey Mantle (who didn't get the benefit of playoff series).

But forget about all of that right now because Thome is still playing and he is just another big reason why the Twins are doing as well as they are. Enjoy him while you can. He was and is all class and he's had one heck of a career. Thankfully, it isn't over yet.

Shocking but not Shocking

Tommy Lasorda and Earl Weaver were about as famous for their umpire arguing skills as they were for their managerial skills. Both had wonderful tantrums when they felt the umpire made the wrong call. And yet, each are on polar opposites when it comes to Instant Replay in baseball. Lasorda is all old school and wants the human element kept in. Weaver said the technology needs to be used to get it right. All of this, of course, comes from a recent study that found that twenty percent of close calls in games made by the umpires were wrong calls. The study is shocking, but for anyone who watches a lot of games, not shocking at all.

We can certainly see the evidence with our eyes when we watch the television. Just last night in the ESPN Sunday Game of the Week, Jose Reyes was called out at second and the replay clearly showed Reyes to be safe. The Fan watched the Yankees and the Red Sox yesterday and there were two blown calls in those games. You can cry, "human element," all you want, but this Fan seems to be squarely in line with most fans when it comes to having baseball officiated well. The post season last year was abominable when it came to bad calls. It was embarrassing. That's not a human element. That's a crying shame.

There are only two ways you can fix it when one out of every five calls is blown by the umpires. You either get better umpires or you move to technology. Getting better umpires is a problem. First, you have a union to deal with. Second, these guys are already supposed to be the best. Ideally, you would have to look at the selection process and figure out if you have a problem there. You have to weed out those umpires that are consistently poor in their decision making. You have to look at the training that is preparing umpires for their profession. All of that takes time and energy and a will to make it happen. All of that is problematic. After all, humans are involved with natural territorial feelings. Plus, humans are prone to always take the easy way out.

So if the second option is problematic, technology is your only way out. Nobody wants longer games. But you could shorten games with just a few simple rule changes (limit catchers going to the mound, limit time outs called by the batter when there is a runner on second, limit pitching changes in an inning, for just a few). That would take some time that could be used up for replay. The study linked above shows that there are about 1.3 close calls per game. So you are basically adding up to two chances in a game to review a call. That's not a lot and shouldn't take up a lot of time. And it is worth it if it means a correct call.

There is no question for this old school Fan that replay is the way to go.  Perfect it in Triple A if you have to first. Those calls in the Twins - Yankees series last fall were terrible and it took away from what the Yankees were to go on and accomplish because the calls tarnished some of the results. Jeter's famous home run in 1996 had a similar effect. Calls need to be right and if 20% of all close calls are blown and the human element can't do better than that, then another option has to be in place. It is too bad that we can't go back in time and review all those calls say twenty years ago to see if umpiring is worse now than it was then. This Fan would bet that that it is worse now than it has ever been.

In the linked piece that started this post, a telling short interview was given by Doug Harvey, a famous retired umpire who suggested with irony that we replace umpires with robots. He, of course, was defending the current system. But this Fan would be happier with robots  than with today's umpires. The Fan would love it if all balls and strikes were handled by technology. The Fan can't stand bad strike zones. It drives this old writer crazy. Well, you can't give a robot any way to tell if a runner is safe or out on a base. There just doesn't seem to be any way to do that. But that being the case, replay will give you the option of looking at the play again and getting it correct.

The bottom line is that we want ball players to decide the fate of the games and their own statistics, not an umpire.

Game Picks - Monday: August 16, 2010

Sunday was a much better day as this picker was correct on eleven of fifteen picks. The only mistakes were the Yankees (who played like they had a plane to catch), the Angels (give those Blue Jays props), the Mets (terrible clutch team) and Seattle where King Felix pitched like Masterson and Masterson pitched like King Felix. The eleven wins puts the Fan over the thousand correct mark for the season, which is a milestone of sorts.

There are only seven games on the schedule for Monday. Here they are:

• The Marlins over the Pirates: The Pirates keep their losing streak alive and Volstad gets the win.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: Bergesen is flourishing under the new regime. The Mariners still can't hit.
• The Braves over the Dodgers: Going with Hanson even though inexplicably, he's a .500 pitcher this season.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: Yankees at home? Yeah. Going with Vazquez over Scherzer.
• The Astros over the Mets: Going with the Fan's main man, Wandy Rodriguez. Niese goes for the Mets.
• The Rangers over the Bay Rays: Cliff Lee in a super show down with David Price. Would love to see this game.
• The Blue Jays over the Athletics: Is there any consolation being the fifth best team in baseball? Marcum over Anderson.

And the Game of the Day

• The Padres over the Cubs: Corriea has been unhittable in his last two outings. Gorzelanny will keep the Cubs close.

 

Yesterday: 11-4
Week: 11-4
Month: 104-79
Season: 1005-734
Games of the Day: 65-21

A Lot Going Right for the Yankees

At one point in the last two weeks, the Yankees lost six of ten and still maintained their lead in the AL East. Now they are starting to play better ball and play their next three weeks (just about) at home. That doesn't leave the Red Sox and Bay Rays much hope of catching the New Yorkers. Here are some of the things that stand out with the current condition of the Yankees:

• Derek Jeter hasn't made an error in fifty games, has a good efficiency rating and is starting to hit again.
• A-Rod hasn't had his usual numbers and still leads the league in RBIs and he hit three homers on Saturday.
• The bullpen is coming together. Chamberlain has had several good outings in a row. Mitre is doing well in relief and Kerry Wood has been terrific.
• Berkman is starting to get his bearings and has had three good games in a row.
• Granderson looks quicker at the plate and should be better down the stretch.
• Teixeira is socking the ball and is the poster boy for possible flaws with the defensive efficiency rankings as he's been unbelievable in the field.
• Cano is in a slump of sorts, but it's a bad luck slump and not a stroke slump. He's still hitting the ball hard.
• Burnett has been better, but that can never be relied upon.
• Sabathia will keep the team in any game he pitches and eats up innings.
• Heck, even Austin Kearns is hitting.

If the AL East contenders didn't catch the Yankees while they were on the road, it's going to be awful tough to catch them now that 19 of their next 22 games are at home.

Game Picks - Sunday: August, 15, 2010

The Game Picks are on a two day losing streak after back to back 7-8 days. Lots went wrong yesterday for this picker. Carpenter only gave up three runs, but the Cubs held his team to two. The Red Sox and Lester had a great game against the Rangers. The Astros beat the Pirates (six straight losses now). The Twins beat Cahill. The Giants overcame the Padres. The Brewers won in extras and the Angels pounded the Blue Jays. Those were all bad picks. The week still finished well ahead, but that's not the way you want to see it end.

Here's hoping Sunday will be better:

• The Reds over the Marlins: Homer Bailey is back. That's a pretty good thing when you can reach into the minors and pull up a first round draft pick. Bailey had two great outings in Triple A.
• The Mariners over the Indians: Tough call here. It's King Felix against Masterson. If Masterson is on, it will be a battle.
• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: What happens when Strasburg goes up against the highestt team in strikeouts in the majors?
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Hellisckson should go 3-0 in this one. Arrieta isn't much of a competition.
• The Braves over the Dodgers: The Braves will get to Padilla and Jurrjens will be just good enough to win.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: The Tigers are playing the White Sox tough. Giving Galarraga the nod over Garcia.
• The Astros over the Pirates: Happ over the hapless.
• The Twins over the Athletics: The Twins are heating up and taking over again. Slowey over Mazzaro.
• The Cubs over the Cardinals: Lohse is back for the Cardinals. Wouldn't call that good news. Dempster gets the win.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Burnett should win as long as Cervellii is catching.
• The Rockies over the Brewers: Ubaldo Jiminez goes for his 18th. He only gave up one run in his last outing and lost. Parra goes for the Brewers.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: The Rangers will get to Dice-K and Wilson should be good enough to win.
• The Padres over the Giants: Would you believe that LeBlanc and Lincecum have very similar ERAs?
• The Angels over the Blue Jays: Haren should win this game unless Romero comes up big.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Mets over the Phillies: Will the real Pelfrey stand up? He will need to be good like the last time out to save this pick. Kendrick goes for the Phillies

Yesterday: 7-8
Last Week: 54-38
Month: 93-75
Season: 994-730
Games of the Day: 65-50

Game Picks - Saturday: August 14, 2010

Another losing day! grrrrrr. Didn't see the Bay Rays losing to Baltimore. Didn't see Dickey throwing a one hitter against the Phillies. Didn't anticipate Josh Johnson throwing a stinker. Didn't predict the Astros killing the Diamondback's bullpen to get a win. Couldn't anticipate the Royals' bullpen keeping up with the Yankees after the rains came. In short, the Fan was way nearsighted on eight different games. Ugh.  At least the Game of the Day came in with a gem by the Blue Jays' pitcher whose name the Fan can't spell. The Fan will just call him "Rep" from now on.

Here are Saturday's picks:

• The Padres over the Giants: Two good young pitchers in Latos and Bumgarner. Latos is more experienced and should carry the day.
• The Orioles over the Bay Rays: Going with Matusz over Sonnnanstine in a giddy pick that can't believe how competitive the Orioles are now.
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: Zambrano didn't look too bad last time out, but Carpenter is Carpenter.
• The Mariners over the Indians: Besides Choo, who do the Indians still have now? Vargas over Talbot, who has really struggled since his early successes.
• The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Marquis has an ERA over 15. 15! Going with Ian Kennedy.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: Going with the gut that Porcello will have a good game and that Jackson will not.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Simply hate this series. Both teams are in the crapper. Both have lousy pitching and little hitting. Going with Maholm over Norris.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Phil Hughes wins his 14th. O'Sullivan gets the loss. Will the Yankees really shut Hughes down the way he's pitched?
• The Phillies over the Mets: Halladay in a laugher over the Mets who are starting a rookie making his debut.
• The Athletics over the Twins: Cahill has been seriously good for the A's. Duensing has also for the Twins, but he isn't as good as Cahill.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: Lester has been a mystery of late, especially after the second time against a lineup. Lewis has the ability to baffle the Sox.
• The Dodgers over the Braves: Like Lilly as he is a lefty against a lefty-leaning line up. Lowe gets the loss.
• The Blue Jays over the Angels: Cecil over Santana. If Benji Molina catches Cecil, it will be Benny and Cecil, which almost makes sense.
• The Rockies over the Brewers: If the Brewers don't give Hoffman a chance at 600, then this Fan hopes they lose every game from here on out.

And the Game of the Day

• The Reds over the Marlins: Leake wins and West loses and the Marlins continue to bat Hanley Ramirez at lead off. Crazy.

 

Yesterday: 7-8
Week: 47-30
Month: 86-67
Season: 987-722
Games of the Day: 64-50