When you are a fan and passionate about the sport you love, rationality has little to do with the process. We fall in love with teams and with players because for some reason they resonate with us in whatever mental or emotional state we happen to be in at the time. There is no rhyme or reason in being a fan. As such, favorite players over the years have been numerous. But the lack of rationality goes both ways. Just as we fall in love with certain teams and players, we fall in hate with others. As the years go by, the tenacity to which we hold onto those feelings knows no bounds. We may only be shaken from our resolve with some dramatic event. The O. J. Simpson thing comes to mind. As we get older, we develop some measure of insight and question our choices. Such is the case with Carl Yastrzemski. It's time to figure out why this particular Fan hates Yaz.
Yastrzemski (a name that is highly irritating to have to type) wasn't alone in the hated column. but he was darn close to the top of the list. Others on the list include(d): Bob Gibson, Maury Wills, Cal Ripkin Jr., Barry Bonds, Albert Bell, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones, Tommy Lasorda, Tony LaRussa, Pete Rose, any player named Hairston, Jeff Kent and Reggie Jackson. There have been others, but that's a pretty representative list. In some cases, the competitive arrogance of the person turned into hate. Gibson, Chipper, Kent and Rose fall into those categories. Those same traits were loved in other players, so of course it makes little sense. Some are seen as selfish and self-serving like Lasorda, Bonds, Jackson, Murray and Bell. But all players are like them to a degree, so again, it makes no sense. Others were hated because they were beloved by others but judged overrated by this Fan. Those include Wills, Ripkin, and yes, Carl Yastrzemski.
But with Yaz, it was more than the overrated thing. He just seemed like a jerk. Lord knows, that is an unfair conclusion. He just seemed in interviews to be condescending. He carried himself with an air of dignity and like he was a blue-blood. But it was the overrated thing that seemed to resonate most.
While Derek Jeter is beloved in this writer's heart, there is an understanding of how many would hate him. His fame is blown up by the media and the frenzy with which that media enshrines him is irking even for those that love the player. In his day, Yaz got the same kind of treatment. Curt Gowdy, the iconic play-by-play announcer for the Saturday game of the week for years was also the Red Sox guy on then Channel 38 in Boston. He always heaped lavishing praise on Yaz. But it wasn't just him. It was others.
Looking back, this Fan's perception of Yaz wasn't helped by the timing of the Fan's move to New England. That occurred in 1975 and that was the year that the Red Sox went to the World Series under Dick Williams. And they almost pulled it off. There was no cable television back then and if you moved to a different part of the country, the only option you had was to watch the ball games of the team the local stations covered. During the Fan's initial years in New Hampshire, the Red Sox were the only team on the tube.
The timing of that move made all the difference. 1974 was Yastrzemski's last great season. The Fan's first year in New England was the following year when he fell to a .776 OPS and batted .269. All that year, the Fan watched him on television while the broadcasters heaped praise in copious amounts and the guy was just a notch above average at that point. He would rally for a very good year in 1977, but the rest of those years were just a notch above middling. Plus, there were vivid reminders of his fallibility. Yaz made the last out in the 1975 World Series on a fly out. He popped out to end the infamous Bucky Dent game. It was a weak foul pop to third base with two men on against Goose Gossage. Everyone remembers that Dent hit that homer off of Torres, but Yaz could have won the game and he failed.
The move in 1975 was after all the great Yaz years. He won the Triple Crown in 1967. He led the league in batting average three times and OPS four times. He won an MVP and several Gold Gloves. He hit .410 in the 1967 World Series, the only guy who made any kind of dent in that series against Bob Gibson and crew. He had great years in an era when pitching was king. But the Fan didn't watch him in any of those years except the All Star Game and the World Series.
What the Fan got to see was an old guy hanging around for years and years after his best years. It's not that Yaz was ineffective from 1975 on. He wasn't. Only 1981 saw his OPS+ dip below 106. But he was no longer a superstar and yet he still acted like one and was treated like one. And that grated on the Fan month after month after month.
There are two kinds of superstars. There are those like Sandy Koufax and Kirby Puckett who shine brightly for only a little while. They are so good in their peak years that we can't help marvel at them. But there are others whose body of work amassed over two decades end up putting up massive rubbles of numbers. Dave Winfield is one of those. And so is Carl Yastrzemski. He had his great years during his peak. But he put up massive career numbers. He drove in and scored over 1800 runs. He hit 452 homers and 1,157 extra base hits. He had 3,419 hits. He played 23 FULL seasons for the same team. He walked 1845 times, almost 350 more times than he struck out. He compiled 195 assists as an outfielder and when he got old, he played first base. But he wasn't a liability at first base like most in that situation. He had positive fielding metrics at first base.
His statistics are massive. His career WAR was 88.7. He was maddeningly inconsistent. Two years after his Triple Crown season, he hit .255. The year after that, he hit .329. The year after that, he hit .254. But reflection insists that this Fan didn't see Yaz at his best. And at his best, he was quite a complete ball player. And as such, it's time to put away the old hatred and disdain for the man. It's time to understand and realize that Carl Yastrzemski was one of the best players of his era and as such, one of the best players this Fan has had a chance to watch.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Risk Can Bring Rewards - Thoughts on Brandon Webb
There were a lot of teams scrambling for starting pitching at the beginning of the off season. Heck, there are a lot of teams still in need of rotation help. It's not like there weren't arms out there. But there was a lot of risk involved. And there is an old saying that goes, "No risk, no reward." The phrase is used in golf with holes being considered good "risk-reward" holes. In other words, taking a risk can reap big rewards. It is acknowledged that such a risk could also mean sending a golf ball out of bounds. But when it works out, boy is it sweet.
Somebody who took a risk this off season is going to be smiling broadly. Certainly, one of the owners of the Chris Capuano, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis and John Maine are going to be pretty pleased with themselves. What got the Fan to thinking about this was this piece on ESPN.com. In the piece, Ron Washington, manager of the Rangers is quoted as saying, "Wow!" to the way Brandon Webb was throwing. The Rangers understood the risk and other teams are going to look pretty silly if Webb has a very good season.
Earlier reports said that Capuano was throwing really well for the Mets in early camp. Capuano's velocity notched up a bit at the end of last year and he would have been a risk worth taking. Only the Mets saw the possible reward. Jeff Francis and Chris Young were out there but they had injury rap sheets that were too long. But you know, one of those guys is going to have a good year. You can book it.
Has such a risk blown up in people's faces before? Sure. Just ask the Mariners about Bedard. But seasons can be won or lost with just a few wins swung from the loss column. A team that wins 80 games could have won 85 or 86 with just the right risk-reward signing. A lot of divisions are going to swing pretty close to 86 wins. The NL West, Central and the AL Central division winner may have such a win total. In the AL East, where three teams are beating their brains in for the 92 to 95 wins it will take to win that division, could have had a three game swing if the right risk had been taken.
And yes, I am talking to you, Yankees. Any of those pitchers mentioned in this post so far were better risk-reward guys than Garcia, Colon and Mitre. So why wouldn't you pull the trigger? The Fan is impressed by the Texas Rangers. They are shooting from the hip and taking those risks. And you know what? Brandon Webb, if he can get healthy enough to pitch this season, will be better than any of the Garcias, Colons or Mitres you want to put out there.
Of course, the Yankees don't appear to be risk takers any more. Such high stakes have ground them into inertia. If the Yankees were adept at risks, one of those guys would have been signed. If the Yankees were adept at the calculated risky deal, one of the trio of stud minor league pitchers in their present camp would go north with them. But they won't.
Sometimes it's much easier to turn a small craft than a Titanic. But a wise man once told the Fan that faith was like the rudder of a ship, it's useless and doesn't work unless you are moving forward. The same can be said about taking a good risk that can lead to a high reward.
Wishing you a big season, Misters Webb, Capuano, Francis, Young and Maine.
Somebody who took a risk this off season is going to be smiling broadly. Certainly, one of the owners of the Chris Capuano, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis and John Maine are going to be pretty pleased with themselves. What got the Fan to thinking about this was this piece on ESPN.com. In the piece, Ron Washington, manager of the Rangers is quoted as saying, "Wow!" to the way Brandon Webb was throwing. The Rangers understood the risk and other teams are going to look pretty silly if Webb has a very good season.
Earlier reports said that Capuano was throwing really well for the Mets in early camp. Capuano's velocity notched up a bit at the end of last year and he would have been a risk worth taking. Only the Mets saw the possible reward. Jeff Francis and Chris Young were out there but they had injury rap sheets that were too long. But you know, one of those guys is going to have a good year. You can book it.
Has such a risk blown up in people's faces before? Sure. Just ask the Mariners about Bedard. But seasons can be won or lost with just a few wins swung from the loss column. A team that wins 80 games could have won 85 or 86 with just the right risk-reward signing. A lot of divisions are going to swing pretty close to 86 wins. The NL West, Central and the AL Central division winner may have such a win total. In the AL East, where three teams are beating their brains in for the 92 to 95 wins it will take to win that division, could have had a three game swing if the right risk had been taken.
And yes, I am talking to you, Yankees. Any of those pitchers mentioned in this post so far were better risk-reward guys than Garcia, Colon and Mitre. So why wouldn't you pull the trigger? The Fan is impressed by the Texas Rangers. They are shooting from the hip and taking those risks. And you know what? Brandon Webb, if he can get healthy enough to pitch this season, will be better than any of the Garcias, Colons or Mitres you want to put out there.
Of course, the Yankees don't appear to be risk takers any more. Such high stakes have ground them into inertia. If the Yankees were adept at risks, one of those guys would have been signed. If the Yankees were adept at the calculated risky deal, one of the trio of stud minor league pitchers in their present camp would go north with them. But they won't.
Sometimes it's much easier to turn a small craft than a Titanic. But a wise man once told the Fan that faith was like the rudder of a ship, it's useless and doesn't work unless you are moving forward. The same can be said about taking a good risk that can lead to a high reward.
Wishing you a big season, Misters Webb, Capuano, Francis, Young and Maine.
Down With Strikeouts!
The good folks of baseball-reference.com this morning posted a list of the forty-five players who have hit at least twenty homers in a season and hit more homes than they struck out. The list is fascinating and impressed the heck out of this writer. Joe DiMaggio did it seven times! That fact alone gave this Fan a new appreciation for the kind of player DiMaggio was. Yogi Berra did it five times. The last two to perform that feat are Barry Bonds and George Brett. Bonds accomplished his in that pug-awful season where chicken managers walked him on purpose over 200 times. Brett did the feat during his run at .400 in 1980. Again, this list simply impressed the heck out the Fan. The Fan hates strikeouts which makes these 45 seasons the heroes of the ages.
Most analysts today aren't concerned with a batter striking out. It's just another out like any other. What has never made sense to this Fan is that the same analysts help value pitchers based on the things pitchers can control, like walks and strikeouts. So when evaluating pitchers, the strikeout is a really big deal. But for a batter, it isn't? It's just another out? Again, the Fan doesn't see it that way. Say in a game, a team strikes out ten times and loses by a run. If the team had put the ball in play those ten times, the statistical odds say that they will be hits 30 percent of the time. Even this Fan's faulty math can figure out that would mean three more hits. Three more hits in a one-run game wouldn't have made a difference? The Fan understands the fundamental point that if player A makes 400 outs in 600 plate appearances that player is going to have a .333 on base percentage just the same way that Player B who makes 400 outs in 600 plate appearances but strikes out a hundred more times than Player A. It makes sense. But those 100 strikeouts drive the Fan bonkers.
Let's take a look at Joey Votto. Votto is the MVP for 2010. And yeah, the guy rocked with the unbelievable slash line of .324/.424/.600. But he struck out 125 times. That's not a lot like a lot of sluggers, but it's still a lot of strikeouts. People will say that Votto's strikeouts are acceptable because you don't want Votto to be less aggressive at the plate. Conventional wisdom says that you want Votto to be able to be able to take a shot with two strikes. But does that really work out?
In 2010, Votto had his at bats decided 147 times with either a 1-2 or an 0-2 count. He had three homers in those at bats. That's one homer for every 49 such at bats. Votto struck out 66 times in those instances. That's 45 percent! Since the return on Votto swinging with gusto in those counts is very small, what would it hurt to cut back on the aggression and just make contact? Votto's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .361. So say Votto puts half of those strikeouts in play. That's 33 more balls in play. If you apply his BABIP to those 33 balls in play, that's 11 more hits. Imagine how good Votto could be with eleven more hits!?
As the list from baseball-reference.com shows, it's possible to be a slugger AND not strike out very much. Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano both showed in 2010 that you can have a high slugging percentage without a high strikeout total. Maybe the Fan has a thick neck, but this old head just can't accept that a strikeout is just another out and not worth any less than a fly ball to center. While on some levels, that's true, BABIP tells this writer that those balls put in play could be a lot more valuable than those reaching the catcher's mitt.
Take a Deep Breath Cardinal Nation
Today's social media often brings unexpected results. One of them is this writer in northern Maine becoming acquainted with bloggers and baseball fans from areas of the country that normally wouldn't ever cross the Fan's path. Two favored writers are from Toronto and from following their work and interacting with their fans, an appreciation has been built for Toronto baseball. In the last few months, the same social media has taken another funny path and acquaintances have been made with avid St. Louis Cardinals fans. Many of them gather on Blog Talk Radio for podcasts that include chat. Under the banner of Ivie League Productions (run by blogger Bill Ivie and often hosted by BBA president, Daniel Shoptaw) these wonderful folks have become familiar greetings and though this Fan doesn't share their passion for the Cardinals, they are baseball fans, and that binds us all together. Obviously, the past month has been tough on these folks. When one such fan (Angela) mourns the loss of Brendan Ryan, how much more so is an injury to Adam Wainwright going to hurt? And of course, the Pujols contract distraction hasn't helped their anxiety any. The Fan has one message for his new buds in Cardinal Nation: Relax, it's going to be okay.
Of course, it's easier to say that being an outsider with no emotional stake to the outcome. But it is reality too. It wasn't long ago when the Cardinals won a World Series after finishing with a record near .500 and having one quality pitcher in their rotation (Carpenter). For a team like the Cardinals in their current division, there is no need to panic or hang heads. Here are some valid reasons to stay optimistic:
1. The NL Central - There are no clear cut powerhouses in this division. Yes, the Reds won the division last year. Yes, they still have Joey Votto. But this Fan isn't convinced you can count on their rotation of Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto and the rest. Volquez and Cueto have never been able to consistently go out there start after start and shut people down. And there are other reasons for doubting the Reds. First, Scott Rolen had an enormous year for the Reds last year. He keeps getting older, has a history of injuries and this Fan can't see a repeat of that success. Both their catchers hit over .300 last year. Can't see that happening again. They have questions at shortstop and at least one outfield position. This Fan just doesn't see them running away and hiding. The Cubs got better, but how much better? They have to hope Aramis Ramirez bounces back and Soriano has something left and so on. Beyond Dempster and Garza, who can shut down teams consistently in that rotation? The Brewers have improved dramatically and should be a contender. But they aren't a perfectly constructed team. Weeks has to play well and Braun has to stay healthy and if they don't start off quickly and stagger a bit out of the gate, fur will fly. So the Cardinals could win 86 to 88 games and be right in the thick of things.
2. They still have a strong front three of Carpenter, Garcia and Jake Westbrook. Those three should win their fair share of games. That leaves two spots to fill and they have some internal candidates like Lance Lynn and others that can step up. The rotation won't be quite the same without Wainwright, who has been one of the five best pitchers in the NL the last three or so years, but it's still good enough to compete.
3. The Cardinals still have the best player on the planet. It may be for just one more year or it may be just another year in a career with the Cardinals, but Albert Pujols is going to win you some games in 2011. He is a force that no other team can match. The Fan doesn't know about you, but when you have the best guy in the world, a lot can fall in place behind him.
4. Best case scenario: Holliday, Berkman, Pujols knock the snot out of the ball. Eww. Sorry for the yucky graphic on that one. But it's true. If all goes according to plan, you have three guys in the middle of the line up that are going to be a force. Even if Berkman doesn't hit the same way as his peak years, he'll get on base because he's one of the most patient hitters in baseball. Add a (cross your fingers) healthy David Freese and an improving Colby Rasmus and you have five guys in your line up that can do some damage. If Molina gets some offense back and Theriot has a good year (not counting on that), then this team will score a lot of runs and not need to win 2-1 games all season.
5. Love him or hate him (the Fan leans toward the latter), Tony LaRussa is a proven commodity. He's taken teams to the promised land on many occasions, and as one of the Fan's new friends said last night, LaRussa seeems to do his best work when things are a bit of a mess. Now certainly qualifies. Whenever you have LaRussa in your dugout, you should never panic.
Yes, Cardinal Nation, this injury hurts. It's a big loss from a big stud who has been the rock for the Cardinals the past few years. But there is no reason to panic. 162 games is a long time and a lot can happen. If the Cardinals can stay in the race and sneak into the playoffs, they have just as good a chance as anyone else. Cheer up. Things can always be worse. The Cardinals are still viable contenders in a fluid division and one injury, no matter how important a player that guy is, is not going to automatically mean a ticket to the bottom of the division. Not in that division, and not with that manager.
Of course, it's easier to say that being an outsider with no emotional stake to the outcome. But it is reality too. It wasn't long ago when the Cardinals won a World Series after finishing with a record near .500 and having one quality pitcher in their rotation (Carpenter). For a team like the Cardinals in their current division, there is no need to panic or hang heads. Here are some valid reasons to stay optimistic:
1. The NL Central - There are no clear cut powerhouses in this division. Yes, the Reds won the division last year. Yes, they still have Joey Votto. But this Fan isn't convinced you can count on their rotation of Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto and the rest. Volquez and Cueto have never been able to consistently go out there start after start and shut people down. And there are other reasons for doubting the Reds. First, Scott Rolen had an enormous year for the Reds last year. He keeps getting older, has a history of injuries and this Fan can't see a repeat of that success. Both their catchers hit over .300 last year. Can't see that happening again. They have questions at shortstop and at least one outfield position. This Fan just doesn't see them running away and hiding. The Cubs got better, but how much better? They have to hope Aramis Ramirez bounces back and Soriano has something left and so on. Beyond Dempster and Garza, who can shut down teams consistently in that rotation? The Brewers have improved dramatically and should be a contender. But they aren't a perfectly constructed team. Weeks has to play well and Braun has to stay healthy and if they don't start off quickly and stagger a bit out of the gate, fur will fly. So the Cardinals could win 86 to 88 games and be right in the thick of things.
2. They still have a strong front three of Carpenter, Garcia and Jake Westbrook. Those three should win their fair share of games. That leaves two spots to fill and they have some internal candidates like Lance Lynn and others that can step up. The rotation won't be quite the same without Wainwright, who has been one of the five best pitchers in the NL the last three or so years, but it's still good enough to compete.
3. The Cardinals still have the best player on the planet. It may be for just one more year or it may be just another year in a career with the Cardinals, but Albert Pujols is going to win you some games in 2011. He is a force that no other team can match. The Fan doesn't know about you, but when you have the best guy in the world, a lot can fall in place behind him.
4. Best case scenario: Holliday, Berkman, Pujols knock the snot out of the ball. Eww. Sorry for the yucky graphic on that one. But it's true. If all goes according to plan, you have three guys in the middle of the line up that are going to be a force. Even if Berkman doesn't hit the same way as his peak years, he'll get on base because he's one of the most patient hitters in baseball. Add a (cross your fingers) healthy David Freese and an improving Colby Rasmus and you have five guys in your line up that can do some damage. If Molina gets some offense back and Theriot has a good year (not counting on that), then this team will score a lot of runs and not need to win 2-1 games all season.
5. Love him or hate him (the Fan leans toward the latter), Tony LaRussa is a proven commodity. He's taken teams to the promised land on many occasions, and as one of the Fan's new friends said last night, LaRussa seeems to do his best work when things are a bit of a mess. Now certainly qualifies. Whenever you have LaRussa in your dugout, you should never panic.
Yes, Cardinal Nation, this injury hurts. It's a big loss from a big stud who has been the rock for the Cardinals the past few years. But there is no reason to panic. 162 games is a long time and a lot can happen. If the Cardinals can stay in the race and sneak into the playoffs, they have just as good a chance as anyone else. Cheer up. Things can always be worse. The Cardinals are still viable contenders in a fluid division and one injury, no matter how important a player that guy is, is not going to automatically mean a ticket to the bottom of the division. Not in that division, and not with that manager.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
History is Against Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper has become the Beatles of baseball. Accounts have been given of the young phenom for the Washington Nationals getting mobbed at the team's Spring Training complex. Along with the intense interest in the Nationals' Number One pick comes the pressure to see what the kid can do. This observer can't recall a single instance where this much attention was shed on an eighteen year old player with just a few professional games to his resume. Granted, he blew away that professional competition and in his own words, he's spent a lifetime overcoming expectations. But the odds and history are against Harper being anything but a minor league player this season.
First, the Nationals are intent on him playing in the minors this year. His invitation to camp is part of his deal signed when he was drafted. There are just as many pressures for the Nationals to start him in the minors as there is from fans who want to see him play at the top level. First and foremost, the Nationals aren't going to rush the clock on Harper's time in team control. We've talked about that here a half a dozen times. Non-contending teams simply don't rush prospects as big as Harper simply to keep the watch from ticking. The Nationals did break precedent with that last year when Strasburg was called up just a year after he was drafted. But that was a little different because Strasburg wasn't as young as Harper and pitched college ball.
And the injury to Strasburg probably gave the team pause to trying that sort of thing again. But again, Strasburg is a pitcher and Harper is not. But there is not just the matter of a team wanting to hold Harper back for financial reasons. There is also history.
Since 1901, only two players in all that time accumulated at least 100 hits at the age of 18. Both of them were from a long, long time ago. One of them just died in Phil Cavaretta of the Cubs, who broke in with that club in 1935 at the age of 18 and compiled 162 hits. The other was Johnny Lush with the Phillies way back in 1904 when Lush had 102 hits. And the odds don't get any better as a 19 year old either. Only 17 of those since 1901 have managed 100 hits. It's at the age of 19 where you start seeing players like Junior Griffey, Edgar Renteria, Robin Yount, Mel Ott, Rusty Staub, Al Kaline, Tony Conigliaro and Ed Kranepool. All of those players were precocious phenoms of their day. All became good players and many of them made the Hall of Fame. But that's still not a large number.
Harper has some things in his favor. For one, the Fans really want to see him. And given the Nationals need to build fan interest as they cope with a higher payroll after the Werth signing, those dollar signs might be too hard to fight. Secondly, Harper has a guy named Scott Boras working for him which exerts a pressure all its own. We don't know what guarantees the Nationals gave Boras and Harper when Harper signed. We do know his Spring Training invitation is one of them. But who knows if any kind of timetable was hammered out.
It would be an intense shock if the Nationals broke camp with Harper on the team. Their general manager is on record as stating Harper will be in the minors in 2010. The manager says, "Never say never." So at least he's open minded. It wouldn't be a surprise if Harper did very well and crushed minor league opponents and got called up later in the year (at least September). But history is against Bryce Harper having any kind of major league impact until 2013 at the earliest. But stranger things have happened and Harper has shown above all else that he's build his entire life for breaking such barriers.
First, the Nationals are intent on him playing in the minors this year. His invitation to camp is part of his deal signed when he was drafted. There are just as many pressures for the Nationals to start him in the minors as there is from fans who want to see him play at the top level. First and foremost, the Nationals aren't going to rush the clock on Harper's time in team control. We've talked about that here a half a dozen times. Non-contending teams simply don't rush prospects as big as Harper simply to keep the watch from ticking. The Nationals did break precedent with that last year when Strasburg was called up just a year after he was drafted. But that was a little different because Strasburg wasn't as young as Harper and pitched college ball.
And the injury to Strasburg probably gave the team pause to trying that sort of thing again. But again, Strasburg is a pitcher and Harper is not. But there is not just the matter of a team wanting to hold Harper back for financial reasons. There is also history.
Since 1901, only two players in all that time accumulated at least 100 hits at the age of 18. Both of them were from a long, long time ago. One of them just died in Phil Cavaretta of the Cubs, who broke in with that club in 1935 at the age of 18 and compiled 162 hits. The other was Johnny Lush with the Phillies way back in 1904 when Lush had 102 hits. And the odds don't get any better as a 19 year old either. Only 17 of those since 1901 have managed 100 hits. It's at the age of 19 where you start seeing players like Junior Griffey, Edgar Renteria, Robin Yount, Mel Ott, Rusty Staub, Al Kaline, Tony Conigliaro and Ed Kranepool. All of those players were precocious phenoms of their day. All became good players and many of them made the Hall of Fame. But that's still not a large number.
Harper has some things in his favor. For one, the Fans really want to see him. And given the Nationals need to build fan interest as they cope with a higher payroll after the Werth signing, those dollar signs might be too hard to fight. Secondly, Harper has a guy named Scott Boras working for him which exerts a pressure all its own. We don't know what guarantees the Nationals gave Boras and Harper when Harper signed. We do know his Spring Training invitation is one of them. But who knows if any kind of timetable was hammered out.
It would be an intense shock if the Nationals broke camp with Harper on the team. Their general manager is on record as stating Harper will be in the minors in 2010. The manager says, "Never say never." So at least he's open minded. It wouldn't be a surprise if Harper did very well and crushed minor league opponents and got called up later in the year (at least September). But history is against Bryce Harper having any kind of major league impact until 2013 at the earliest. But stranger things have happened and Harper has shown above all else that he's build his entire life for breaking such barriers.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Steve Hamilton's Folly Floater
There once was a long and lanky left-hander who pitched for several teams from 1961 to 1972. Eight of those twelve years were with the New York Yankees. It seems every lefty is given the long and lanky moniker, but Hamilton earned it. He was six feet, six inches tall and he weighed only 190 pounds. His hair grayed early which made him seem ancient even when he wasn't. His name was Steve Hamilton and he is one of the treasures of my childhood.
Hamilton was never a star reliever. He was the mop up kind of guy who pitched in games that got out of hand. He came in when the starter left early. His only real pivotal season was 1968 when he saved eleven games and had a sparkling 2.13 ERA and a 0.937 WHIP. But even that didn't matter since the Yankees finished in the bottom of the standings. But when you are a kid, you latch on to guys like Steve Hamilton. Just like my favorite New York Knick was Phil Jackson. Jackson didn't get much playing time, but we lived for when he actually got in the game and used that big lefty hook of his. Hamilton was the Phil Jackson of baseball. He was the middling reliever.
But he wasn't just any middling reliever. He was pretty darn good at it. He pitched in 421 games and ended his career with a 3.05 ERA. He even started seventeen games along the way and completed three of them with one shutout. But mostly, he was a middling reliever. And he was a lefty. Hamilton was born and died in Kentucky (1935-1997) so not only was he an older looking gentleman, he was a southern gentleman.
But what made Steve Hamilton one of the true heroes of my childhood was the Folly Floater. What's that, you ask? That's what Hamilton called his slow ball. Others who threw them, like Satchel Paige, called it an Eepheus pitch. But Hamilton called his the Folly Floater. Now baseball has always been somewhat of a conservative game. Baseball frowns upon gimmicks. Baseball hated Bill Veeck's "midget." An infielder may get away with the hidden ball trick, but he will get knocked down the next time he gets to the plate. The slow ball is about as gimmicky as you can get away with in Major League Baseball. And to be sure, Hamilton probably wasn't very popular around the league for throwing it.
But what the heck. The Yankees were terrible during that period of time. They couldn't hit. They could pitch. They had starting pitchers that swapped wives. It was a really bad time for New York Yankee baseball. But that's the period I grew up and that's all there was. And we loved it. Actually, it was a great time to be a kid and a Yankee fan because it was dirt cheap to get into the bleachers and since the stands were so empty, we could get down by the dugout in the box seats after the fourth inning when the ushers left. So who cared much that Steve Hamilton would throw his slow ball and risk embarrassing the game when the Yankees would probably lose either way?
Fortunately, there is video evidence of one such at bat with Hamilton throwing his silly pitch. The batter in this case was Tony Horton, one of the roughest and toughest hombres in the game at that time. The year was 1970 and the game took place on June 24th at Yankee Stadium. The video shows the stadium and you might not even recognize it! Anyway, Horton was big and strong and batted right handed. That's just what you needed against Hamilton. But...wait...we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's set the game up first.
The Yankees were actually playing well in 1970. After some really dark years, on June 24, 1970 under Ralph Houk, they were in second place with a 40-27. Cleveland was in seventh place, one of their usual positions during those years. The Indians had a record of 30-34 and were managed by Al Dark. Both teams started their aces. The Yankees started Mel Stottlemyre and the Indians started Sudden Sam McDowell, one of the blazingest fastball pitchers of his era. Stottlemyre was 8-5 and McDowell was 10-4. The Yankee pitcher would go on to win 15 that season and McDowell would win 20 and come in third in Cy Young voting. He struck out 304 batters that season.
McDowell had his best stuff on June 24, 1970 but Stottlemyre didn't. The Yankee pitcher was knocked out by the fourth inning and McDowell went on to pitch a complete game. The only two runs McDowell gave up were homers to Curt Blefary and a young Bobby Murcer. The Indians had a third baseman by the name of Graig Nettles. But getting back to the game, Stottlemyre was lifted after four innings and was lifted for Mike Kekich, one of the guys in that wife-swapping thing mentioned earlier.
Kekich must have been born under a dark cloud because he was terrible and June 24, 1970 was no different. But he also got no help from his fielders as the usually slick-fielding, Gene Michael, made two errors. But after Kekich pitched his two innings, the score was 6-2 and that was all McDowell needed. The rest of the game was just filler. So they thought.
The next Yankee pitcher was a guy I don't even remember. His name was Ron Klimkowski. It's no wonder I don't remember him as he only pitched 90 games of major league baseball. Klimkowski somehow ended his career with a 2.90 ERA despite a K/9 of only 3.8 and a walk rate of 3.4 per nine innings. In other words, Klimkowski didn't fool anyone. But he pitched two innings and gave up a run on two walks and a hit. His innings bring us to the top of the ninth and Steve Hamilton was asked to do what he did best: pitch a meaningless ninth inning. The Yankees had no chance of beating McDowell on this day and everyone knew it. It was just another meaningless inning for a middling reliever who had a twelve year career making these kinds of appearances.
But it wasn't meaningless for those of us glued to the television sets (black and white) and sipping our cokes in the old green bottles. Our guy was in the game! Steve Hamilton. The very first guy he faced was Tony Horton. Horton was only 25 and nobody knew it on June 24, 1970, but Horton would only be in the major leagues for two more months. For that story, click here. But on that day, nobody knew Horton's breakdown would happen and he was just another good-looking young stud of a ball player. Graig Nettles said that Horton was one of the best hitters he ever saw. But the game wasn't for Horton and he never played again after 1970. But Horton was the guy that Hamilton would face first in the ninth inning. The linked story seems to indicate that Horton and Hamilton had communicated and that Horton wanted Hamilton to throw his Folly Floater. When viewing the video, it certainly appears that Horton wanted Hamilton to throw it a second time.
But there is no use in describing what happened. That's best left to the video and to the immortal Phil Rizzuto that described the happenings. What happened between Hamilton and Horton is legendary to all of us that grew up watching baseball in those times. We'll never forget it. Take it away Uncle Phil:
Hamilton was never a star reliever. He was the mop up kind of guy who pitched in games that got out of hand. He came in when the starter left early. His only real pivotal season was 1968 when he saved eleven games and had a sparkling 2.13 ERA and a 0.937 WHIP. But even that didn't matter since the Yankees finished in the bottom of the standings. But when you are a kid, you latch on to guys like Steve Hamilton. Just like my favorite New York Knick was Phil Jackson. Jackson didn't get much playing time, but we lived for when he actually got in the game and used that big lefty hook of his. Hamilton was the Phil Jackson of baseball. He was the middling reliever.
But he wasn't just any middling reliever. He was pretty darn good at it. He pitched in 421 games and ended his career with a 3.05 ERA. He even started seventeen games along the way and completed three of them with one shutout. But mostly, he was a middling reliever. And he was a lefty. Hamilton was born and died in Kentucky (1935-1997) so not only was he an older looking gentleman, he was a southern gentleman.
But what made Steve Hamilton one of the true heroes of my childhood was the Folly Floater. What's that, you ask? That's what Hamilton called his slow ball. Others who threw them, like Satchel Paige, called it an Eepheus pitch. But Hamilton called his the Folly Floater. Now baseball has always been somewhat of a conservative game. Baseball frowns upon gimmicks. Baseball hated Bill Veeck's "midget." An infielder may get away with the hidden ball trick, but he will get knocked down the next time he gets to the plate. The slow ball is about as gimmicky as you can get away with in Major League Baseball. And to be sure, Hamilton probably wasn't very popular around the league for throwing it.
But what the heck. The Yankees were terrible during that period of time. They couldn't hit. They could pitch. They had starting pitchers that swapped wives. It was a really bad time for New York Yankee baseball. But that's the period I grew up and that's all there was. And we loved it. Actually, it was a great time to be a kid and a Yankee fan because it was dirt cheap to get into the bleachers and since the stands were so empty, we could get down by the dugout in the box seats after the fourth inning when the ushers left. So who cared much that Steve Hamilton would throw his slow ball and risk embarrassing the game when the Yankees would probably lose either way?
Fortunately, there is video evidence of one such at bat with Hamilton throwing his silly pitch. The batter in this case was Tony Horton, one of the roughest and toughest hombres in the game at that time. The year was 1970 and the game took place on June 24th at Yankee Stadium. The video shows the stadium and you might not even recognize it! Anyway, Horton was big and strong and batted right handed. That's just what you needed against Hamilton. But...wait...we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's set the game up first.
The Yankees were actually playing well in 1970. After some really dark years, on June 24, 1970 under Ralph Houk, they were in second place with a 40-27. Cleveland was in seventh place, one of their usual positions during those years. The Indians had a record of 30-34 and were managed by Al Dark. Both teams started their aces. The Yankees started Mel Stottlemyre and the Indians started Sudden Sam McDowell, one of the blazingest fastball pitchers of his era. Stottlemyre was 8-5 and McDowell was 10-4. The Yankee pitcher would go on to win 15 that season and McDowell would win 20 and come in third in Cy Young voting. He struck out 304 batters that season.
McDowell had his best stuff on June 24, 1970 but Stottlemyre didn't. The Yankee pitcher was knocked out by the fourth inning and McDowell went on to pitch a complete game. The only two runs McDowell gave up were homers to Curt Blefary and a young Bobby Murcer. The Indians had a third baseman by the name of Graig Nettles. But getting back to the game, Stottlemyre was lifted after four innings and was lifted for Mike Kekich, one of the guys in that wife-swapping thing mentioned earlier.
Kekich must have been born under a dark cloud because he was terrible and June 24, 1970 was no different. But he also got no help from his fielders as the usually slick-fielding, Gene Michael, made two errors. But after Kekich pitched his two innings, the score was 6-2 and that was all McDowell needed. The rest of the game was just filler. So they thought.
The next Yankee pitcher was a guy I don't even remember. His name was Ron Klimkowski. It's no wonder I don't remember him as he only pitched 90 games of major league baseball. Klimkowski somehow ended his career with a 2.90 ERA despite a K/9 of only 3.8 and a walk rate of 3.4 per nine innings. In other words, Klimkowski didn't fool anyone. But he pitched two innings and gave up a run on two walks and a hit. His innings bring us to the top of the ninth and Steve Hamilton was asked to do what he did best: pitch a meaningless ninth inning. The Yankees had no chance of beating McDowell on this day and everyone knew it. It was just another meaningless inning for a middling reliever who had a twelve year career making these kinds of appearances.
But it wasn't meaningless for those of us glued to the television sets (black and white) and sipping our cokes in the old green bottles. Our guy was in the game! Steve Hamilton. The very first guy he faced was Tony Horton. Horton was only 25 and nobody knew it on June 24, 1970, but Horton would only be in the major leagues for two more months. For that story, click here. But on that day, nobody knew Horton's breakdown would happen and he was just another good-looking young stud of a ball player. Graig Nettles said that Horton was one of the best hitters he ever saw. But the game wasn't for Horton and he never played again after 1970. But Horton was the guy that Hamilton would face first in the ninth inning. The linked story seems to indicate that Horton and Hamilton had communicated and that Horton wanted Hamilton to throw his Folly Floater. When viewing the video, it certainly appears that Horton wanted Hamilton to throw it a second time.
But there is no use in describing what happened. That's best left to the video and to the immortal Phil Rizzuto that described the happenings. What happened between Hamilton and Horton is legendary to all of us that grew up watching baseball in those times. We'll never forget it. Take it away Uncle Phil:
Lousy Catchers.- Maybe it's the Vowels
Last week on the Fan's podcast, it was mentioned that there were 123 players last year (2010) that finished with a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) score of zero or in the negative numbers. Generally, this is in the same percentage as always. But when going down the list for the listening audience, it was noticed that a large preponderance of those "neggies" (the Fan's bid to coin a new word) were catchers. Why are there so many crappy catchers in baseball today? Has it always been that way? And why can't major league teams find better catchers? Whoa, that's a lot of questions. Let's take them one at a time.
Why are there so many crappy catchers? Well, "crappy" is an unkind word, is it not? Perhaps to soften the blow, we should call them WAR-deficient catchers. There. That's better. Why are there so many WAR-deficient catchers? The 123 players listed in the first paragraph had at least 100 at bats. But when dropping that quantity amount, we find that 46 catchers finished 2010 with a WAR of zero or worse. 46! In fairness, a third of those guys didn't even have 100 at bats, so we can take that with some grain of salt. But some of those with the worst WAR totals played a lot. Among the group was Bengie Molina (-0.6), Koyle Hill (-1.0), Jeff Mathis (-1.3) and Adam Moore (-1.4). Moore proved that Seattle's tough season was no fluke as his WAR was the lowest for any catcher in baseball. And it seems to be catchy. Jake Fox, who just a couple of years ago was hammering all kinds of minor league pitching for the Cubs' system put on the tools of ignorance for the first time in a while and hit all of .217.
Seventeen of these 46 guys were over 30 years of age. Which again proves that managers and GMs are much more comfortable if the catcher has major league experience. It doesn't matter or not if they stink...err...are WAR-deficient. They just want a veteran. Nothing else can explain why guys like Kevin Cash, Mike Redman, Chad Moeller and others can have ten to twenty year careers despite not offering anything of value other than the willingness to put a mask on and get beaten up during the course of a game or season. Brad Ausmus finally hung up his catcher's mitt after turning 41 last year. That's a lot of years of mediocrity. Consider if you will that only 25 catchers that saw any playing time last year were 25 years of age or less.
If you were to do a survey of all the major league teams, only about a third of them would have catchers to be proud of. Oh sure, for many, you'll get the "gamer," "good with pitchers" and "good clubhouse guys" thrown in there to make it sound like teams were happy with these WAR-deficient catchers. But if you got behind those euphemisms, most GMs were giving the Giants dirty looks for having a guy like Buster Posey.
Why are there so many crappy catchers? Well, "crappy" is an unkind word, is it not? Perhaps to soften the blow, we should call them WAR-deficient catchers. There. That's better. Why are there so many WAR-deficient catchers? The 123 players listed in the first paragraph had at least 100 at bats. But when dropping that quantity amount, we find that 46 catchers finished 2010 with a WAR of zero or worse. 46! In fairness, a third of those guys didn't even have 100 at bats, so we can take that with some grain of salt. But some of those with the worst WAR totals played a lot. Among the group was Bengie Molina (-0.6), Koyle Hill (-1.0), Jeff Mathis (-1.3) and Adam Moore (-1.4). Moore proved that Seattle's tough season was no fluke as his WAR was the lowest for any catcher in baseball. And it seems to be catchy. Jake Fox, who just a couple of years ago was hammering all kinds of minor league pitching for the Cubs' system put on the tools of ignorance for the first time in a while and hit all of .217.
Seventeen of these 46 guys were over 30 years of age. Which again proves that managers and GMs are much more comfortable if the catcher has major league experience. It doesn't matter or not if they stink...err...are WAR-deficient. They just want a veteran. Nothing else can explain why guys like Kevin Cash, Mike Redman, Chad Moeller and others can have ten to twenty year careers despite not offering anything of value other than the willingness to put a mask on and get beaten up during the course of a game or season. Brad Ausmus finally hung up his catcher's mitt after turning 41 last year. That's a lot of years of mediocrity. Consider if you will that only 25 catchers that saw any playing time last year were 25 years of age or less.
If you were to do a survey of all the major league teams, only about a third of them would have catchers to be proud of. Oh sure, for many, you'll get the "gamer," "good with pitchers" and "good clubhouse guys" thrown in there to make it sound like teams were happy with these WAR-deficient catchers. But if you got behind those euphemisms, most GMs were giving the Giants dirty looks for having a guy like Buster Posey.
According to the Fan's searches (which should always be open to scrutiny), there were 111 catchers that played last year. The fact taht 46 of them had zero or a negative WAR is terrible. But is it unprecedented?
In 2009, 109 catchers got into games in the majors. 45 of them were at zero WAR or in the negative numbers. Nearly identical. Let's go back ten years to 2001. In 2001, 109 catchers got into games and 56 of them ended with zero WAR or a WAR in the negative numbers. That's even worse! If we go back to 1991, 51 of the 101 catchers that got into games in that season finished with a WAR of zero or in the negative numbers. It's beginning to look like a plethora of crappy catcher...oops...WAR-deficient catchers have always been with us. Back in 1955, 31 of the 61 catchers in baseball were just as ba...deficient.
The Fan is going to go out on a limb here. Feel free to chop it off if you'd like. But it seems that teams don't value a good catcher very much. If there has been nearly 50% of catchers in the game that can't even crack positive value, then we can term it chronic. Catchers that come up in the system that can do some damage at the plate get converted out of the catching position (Bryce Harper and Biggio are two that come to mind). Guys that are not perceived as good receivers but are good hitters often get to the big leagues in other positions. Jesus Montero may never be an every day catcher for example.
The Fan has noticed another trend. Forty of the 111 catchers that saw big league action last year have names that end in a vowel. Think about it. There's Jaso and Navarro and Blanco and Cervelli and LaRue and Molina (thrice) and Sardinha. Is the Fan right or what? Perhaps this is part of the problem for some strange reason.
Perhaps the catching position is considered fungible. Perhaps it is a position to save money. But it seems to this non-astute observer that teams with great catchers also have great teams. Where would the Braves be without McCann? The Giants get Posey and win the World Series. Posada was a terrific offensive catcher for this current Yankee generation of pennant winners. Whatever the case, it would seem to be a position of importance and yet there is so much lacking at the position. The only other position that is like it is shortstop. Of the 111 shorstops that played in the majors last year, 56 of them ended up with a WAR of zero or in the negative numbers. Again, this includes many who have the "Utility" tag next to their position. And as the Fan wrote last week, a lot of these guys hang around too long and clog up the lower rungs of the WAR ladder.
To give the game a break, we must admit that the percentage of WAR-deficient catchers is lower now than it was twenty, thirty or forty years ago. But that isn't saying much. The Fans advice for all this is that as long as so many of baseball's catchers are going be of little or not value, teams might as well always have their back up catcher as a rookie. At least then the catcher will make minimum instead of one of these Buteras or Blancos that play for ever, make millions and add nothing of value year after year.
Candidates for Unexpected Seasons - NL Central
This morning in this space, a short series was started on just what baseball teams and players can surprise us this upcoming season. Who will be the next Aubrey Huff or Jose Bautista? As mentioned in the first installment, if the Fan could know for certainty who or what team that would be, it would be genius. But alas, there is no genius here. Just speculation and musings on who could be this year's big surprises. Those surprises are out there and that's one of the reason why each new season is as highly anticipated as the last. This post covers the National League Central Division. Let's start with the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs - If this team contended in 2011, that would certainly be a surprise. While their payroll is high and the fans are diehard, the team still feels too dysfunctional to be taken seriously. They did make some improvements such as Matt Garza, so you never know. If the Cubs were to contend, Garza would have to be one of the surprises with a big season. Garza has been tantalizing, but has simply never been able to consistently have a great season. Will it be this year in a new league? Could be. If Alphonso Soriano had one more big year in him, that would be a surprise.
St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals could be capable of anything this year. It all comes down to pitching of course, but the Cardinals have hurt their pitchers by seriously weakening their defense. LaRussa has pulled it off before, but if this team won the division, nobody would be more surprised than the Fan. As for players, if Lance Berkman had a big year after last year's snooze-fest, then that would be a major surprise. Berkman can be a dynamic and effective offensive weapon. The question is whether he still has that in him or has time passed him by.
The Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers have put all their chips on the table by acquiring Zack Greinke and Marcum at the expense of most of their minor league talent. If the Brewers did NOT contend this year, that would be a major surprise. It would also be devastating to the organization that has done a fabulous job of building the fan base the last few years. Players who could surprise are Jonathan Lucroy, the young catcher who made his debut last season. He showed about as much patience at the plate as a three year old that has to go to the bathroom. But his minor league stats show lots of patience. He could be a big surprise if he gets 400 at bats. Matt Gamel is going to play multiple positions in 2011. At least that's the plan. If he finally does anything in the big leagues, that would be a surprise.
Houston Astros - This team was a surprise in the second half as they put together an excellent run after starting out as the worst team in the National League. It really would be a surprise if they approached .500 baseball this season. It was a pretty big surprise the success that Brett Myers put together last year. If he were to come close to those numbers again would be a huge surprise. It would be a big surprise if Nelson Figueroa has actually come into his own as a pitcher at the age of 37. But last year he was pretty darn good in the second half. Now that he will start in the rotation, if he stays that good over 30 starts would be a major surprise.
Cincinnati Reds - Their division win last year was one of the year's big surprises. Among the team's surprises were two catchers that hit so well, Joey Votto going all superstar on us and Jay Bruce finally gelling into a fine every day player. Oh, and the Fan would consider Arroyo's season a big surprise as well. Who could surprise us this season? For one, Drew Stubbs could become a star this season. He showed some promise last year once he got his chance, but was inconsistent. If he were to approach a .900 OPS, then that would be a really nice surprise.
Chicago Cubs - If this team contended in 2011, that would certainly be a surprise. While their payroll is high and the fans are diehard, the team still feels too dysfunctional to be taken seriously. They did make some improvements such as Matt Garza, so you never know. If the Cubs were to contend, Garza would have to be one of the surprises with a big season. Garza has been tantalizing, but has simply never been able to consistently have a great season. Will it be this year in a new league? Could be. If Alphonso Soriano had one more big year in him, that would be a surprise.
St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals could be capable of anything this year. It all comes down to pitching of course, but the Cardinals have hurt their pitchers by seriously weakening their defense. LaRussa has pulled it off before, but if this team won the division, nobody would be more surprised than the Fan. As for players, if Lance Berkman had a big year after last year's snooze-fest, then that would be a major surprise. Berkman can be a dynamic and effective offensive weapon. The question is whether he still has that in him or has time passed him by.
The Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers have put all their chips on the table by acquiring Zack Greinke and Marcum at the expense of most of their minor league talent. If the Brewers did NOT contend this year, that would be a major surprise. It would also be devastating to the organization that has done a fabulous job of building the fan base the last few years. Players who could surprise are Jonathan Lucroy, the young catcher who made his debut last season. He showed about as much patience at the plate as a three year old that has to go to the bathroom. But his minor league stats show lots of patience. He could be a big surprise if he gets 400 at bats. Matt Gamel is going to play multiple positions in 2011. At least that's the plan. If he finally does anything in the big leagues, that would be a surprise.
Houston Astros - This team was a surprise in the second half as they put together an excellent run after starting out as the worst team in the National League. It really would be a surprise if they approached .500 baseball this season. It was a pretty big surprise the success that Brett Myers put together last year. If he were to come close to those numbers again would be a huge surprise. It would be a big surprise if Nelson Figueroa has actually come into his own as a pitcher at the age of 37. But last year he was pretty darn good in the second half. Now that he will start in the rotation, if he stays that good over 30 starts would be a major surprise.
Cincinnati Reds - Their division win last year was one of the year's big surprises. Among the team's surprises were two catchers that hit so well, Joey Votto going all superstar on us and Jay Bruce finally gelling into a fine every day player. Oh, and the Fan would consider Arroyo's season a big surprise as well. Who could surprise us this season? For one, Drew Stubbs could become a star this season. He showed some promise last year once he got his chance, but was inconsistent. If he were to approach a .900 OPS, then that would be a really nice surprise.
Candidates for Unexpected Seasons - NL West
Every year in Major League Baseball we get surprises. These surprises are what make the game so fresh and rewarding to follow year after year. There are surprise players and surprise teams. Last year, we had Adrian Beltre, Yovanni Gallardo, the San Diego Padres, C. J. Lewis, Jose Bautista and Aubrey Huff among the many surprises that thrilled us all season long. And yes, sure, projection systems are designed to predict the norm for players and teams and often come close. But there are always those that defy projections and expectations. Who will they be this year? Well, if the Fan knew that, he would play the stock market. But it's fun to speculate. The Fan is going to cover all 30 teams and six divisions and whether any teams will surprise us or one or two of its players. We'll start in the National League West. Later today will jump to the NL Central and continue with two more divisions tomorrow.
San Francisco Giants: This team does not seem poised to repeat as World Champions. But if they did, that could be considered a surprise. Players who could have surprise seasons would include Pablo Sandoval, who could get back to his 2009 form after his off-season conditioning program, and Cody Ross, who will need to come up big in a pondering and older outfield.
San Diego Padres: It would be a surprise if this team was again competitive after losing their best player to the Red Sox. But the NL West doesn't have a clear cut powerhouse, so anything could happen and that indeed would be a surprise. As for their players, Kyle Blanks could bust out this year. Reports are that he lost some weight and worked on his conditioning. Among the other players, perhaps Will Venable will become a productive player and live up to his once highly-regarded promise.
Los Angeles Dodgers: This could be the surprise team of the NL West with a new manager and a new start. Several players were below their norms last year and they have good pitching. Rafael Furcal has not played a full season in a while due to injuries. He's in the walk year of his contract. Expect a big year as your Dodger surprise. It would be a surprise if both Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier did not bounce back and have very good seasons.
Colorado Rockies: The home/road splits for this team are always a problem. Perhaps this year they will put it together in both instances. That would qualify for a surprise. The Rockies have a couple of players that could surprise us. Dexter Fowler has good patience at the plate and at 25, just seems like a better player than he's shown so far. If he finally busts out, that would be a surprise. Ian Stewart is another one who at 26 just seems like a better player than what we have seen. He could have a surprising season. And of course, if Tulowitzki stayed healthy the entire season, that would be a surprise.
Arizona Diamondbacks: As bad as they were last year, if they were competitive at all this year, that would be a huge surprise. But Kevin Towers has been busy, so it's possible, eh? For that to happen, their pitching staff as a whole would have to qualify as a surprise. As for position players, 2011 could be the season when Stephen Drew finally becomes a superstar. He is only approaching his 28th year and perhaps the shake up on the team will shake him up as well.
This was a fun division to start with because it is so wide open. Any of these teams could win the division and any team that does will be a surprise.
San Francisco Giants: This team does not seem poised to repeat as World Champions. But if they did, that could be considered a surprise. Players who could have surprise seasons would include Pablo Sandoval, who could get back to his 2009 form after his off-season conditioning program, and Cody Ross, who will need to come up big in a pondering and older outfield.
San Diego Padres: It would be a surprise if this team was again competitive after losing their best player to the Red Sox. But the NL West doesn't have a clear cut powerhouse, so anything could happen and that indeed would be a surprise. As for their players, Kyle Blanks could bust out this year. Reports are that he lost some weight and worked on his conditioning. Among the other players, perhaps Will Venable will become a productive player and live up to his once highly-regarded promise.
Los Angeles Dodgers: This could be the surprise team of the NL West with a new manager and a new start. Several players were below their norms last year and they have good pitching. Rafael Furcal has not played a full season in a while due to injuries. He's in the walk year of his contract. Expect a big year as your Dodger surprise. It would be a surprise if both Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier did not bounce back and have very good seasons.
Colorado Rockies: The home/road splits for this team are always a problem. Perhaps this year they will put it together in both instances. That would qualify for a surprise. The Rockies have a couple of players that could surprise us. Dexter Fowler has good patience at the plate and at 25, just seems like a better player than he's shown so far. If he finally busts out, that would be a surprise. Ian Stewart is another one who at 26 just seems like a better player than what we have seen. He could have a surprising season. And of course, if Tulowitzki stayed healthy the entire season, that would be a surprise.
Arizona Diamondbacks: As bad as they were last year, if they were competitive at all this year, that would be a huge surprise. But Kevin Towers has been busy, so it's possible, eh? For that to happen, their pitching staff as a whole would have to qualify as a surprise. As for position players, 2011 could be the season when Stephen Drew finally becomes a superstar. He is only approaching his 28th year and perhaps the shake up on the team will shake him up as well.
This was a fun division to start with because it is so wide open. Any of these teams could win the division and any team that does will be a surprise.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Why Does Hideki Matsui Still Have an Interpretor?
We are a funny people, we Americans. For example, despite the fact that we fought two wars with England and badly wanted our independence from that country, whenever we are faced with an Englishman or woman, we are overly charmed by the accent. Once, while on a training trip, the trainer was Irish and spoke with that area's lilt. We were charmed and mesmerized. We tend to credit people of foreign countries with a nobility that might not be there. We do this to foreign baseball players to a degree as well, particularly those from Japan. We imagine that guys like Hideki Matsui and Ichiro Suzuki play and act with more class than the average ball player. Certainly, they are treated differently by the media. The Fan was contemplating this when reading the terrific Susan Slusser's account of Matsui's arrival at the Oakland A's camp. But one thing about the piece struck this Fan and it led to the question: Why does Matsui still need an interpretor or "translator" as she calls it?
Again, the Fan acknowledges that we as a nation are funny about foreigners. And perhaps this is not the most open minded and gracious thought the Fan has ever had. But it is still the thought and it needs to be expressed so the feelings can at least be dealt with. But the thought is, with Matsui entering the ninth season in his productive career, shouldn't he have mastered English by now? The same can be said for Ichiro, who still uses an interpretor. Ichiro is entering his eleventh season. Don't interpretors insert a layer of insulation for the players, not only from the press but from their teammates? If they go out to dinner, does a Mariner player have to ask Ichiro's interpretor to ask Ichiro to pass the salt? It's just weird to this observer, that's all.
When many players are signed from Latin America, one of the first thing teams do is to attempt to teach these players English. There is more effort to give these players assimilation skills to cope with playing in this country. Part of the reasoning behind the assimilation sessions is to benefit the player as it will be much easier for that player to function in this country if they have a working knowledge of our language. But the other part of it is for the fans who will be interested in interviews given by Latin ball players. Lord knows, Pedro Martinez and Luis Tiant gave some of the best interviews the fans ever were allowed to hear. That would not have been the same if those players were using interpretors. And yet, there are many interviews to this day where Hispanic players use interpretors and those interviews are more annoying than pleasurable.
While the Fan attempts to be enlightened and not pig-headed, the acknowledgement here is that the Fan has this old-fashioned notion that if you are making a living in this country, you should speak the language. To be fair, the Fan has no knowledge of whether U. S. players that go play in Japan attempt to do that. Bobby Valentine appears to speak Japanese from his stints as manager over there. But the Fan doesn't know if other players learn the Japanese language when they play over there. But if you asked the Fan's opinion, they should. They are the visitors there and they should know the language if they are earning their daily yen in that country.
There are many times when the Fan has watched a ball game and the pitching coach goes out to the mound to talk to the pitcher. The pitcher is Japanese and the catcher might be Hispanic. And yet the pitching coach does a bunch of talking and both the pitcher and the catcher nod a lot as if they understand. Do they? You have to wonder, don't you? And of course, in the past, there have been stories of Ichiro not meshing well with his teammates. Is that from Ichiro's personality or his lack of English language skills? Don't know.
The Fan has to do some soul searching on this one. The only thing for sure that the Fan knows is that when Hideki Matsui talked to the press after his glorious World Series heroics, this Fan wanted him to answer in English. The Fan wanted Matsui to talk to us in our language and not his own to his interpretor. Call that wrong if you will and you may be right. This Fan may be displaying some closet Neanderthal type of thought. But that's how the Fan feels. And how do we know that the interpretor is saying exactly what the player actually says. For all we know, Matsui could have been telling the interpretor that the guy with the microphone sure has a big nose. We don't know. The Fan doesn't want to think those kinds of things. The Fan only wants the honest to goodness truth about what Matsui was thinking and feeling at that big moment.
Slusser's article went to great lengths (she really is a good writer) to point out that Matsui's teammates did a lot to make their new DH feel welcome in that clubhouse. The Godzilla doll in his locker was very touching and very funny. But the question remains on how close knit the locker room can be if the baseball Godzilla can't talk to his teammates in their own language.
So what do you think? Is the Fan all wet on this? Probably. But that's the way this Fan was feeling here on Presidents Day when we celebrate our country with yet another patriotic holiday.
Again, the Fan acknowledges that we as a nation are funny about foreigners. And perhaps this is not the most open minded and gracious thought the Fan has ever had. But it is still the thought and it needs to be expressed so the feelings can at least be dealt with. But the thought is, with Matsui entering the ninth season in his productive career, shouldn't he have mastered English by now? The same can be said for Ichiro, who still uses an interpretor. Ichiro is entering his eleventh season. Don't interpretors insert a layer of insulation for the players, not only from the press but from their teammates? If they go out to dinner, does a Mariner player have to ask Ichiro's interpretor to ask Ichiro to pass the salt? It's just weird to this observer, that's all.
When many players are signed from Latin America, one of the first thing teams do is to attempt to teach these players English. There is more effort to give these players assimilation skills to cope with playing in this country. Part of the reasoning behind the assimilation sessions is to benefit the player as it will be much easier for that player to function in this country if they have a working knowledge of our language. But the other part of it is for the fans who will be interested in interviews given by Latin ball players. Lord knows, Pedro Martinez and Luis Tiant gave some of the best interviews the fans ever were allowed to hear. That would not have been the same if those players were using interpretors. And yet, there are many interviews to this day where Hispanic players use interpretors and those interviews are more annoying than pleasurable.
While the Fan attempts to be enlightened and not pig-headed, the acknowledgement here is that the Fan has this old-fashioned notion that if you are making a living in this country, you should speak the language. To be fair, the Fan has no knowledge of whether U. S. players that go play in Japan attempt to do that. Bobby Valentine appears to speak Japanese from his stints as manager over there. But the Fan doesn't know if other players learn the Japanese language when they play over there. But if you asked the Fan's opinion, they should. They are the visitors there and they should know the language if they are earning their daily yen in that country.
There are many times when the Fan has watched a ball game and the pitching coach goes out to the mound to talk to the pitcher. The pitcher is Japanese and the catcher might be Hispanic. And yet the pitching coach does a bunch of talking and both the pitcher and the catcher nod a lot as if they understand. Do they? You have to wonder, don't you? And of course, in the past, there have been stories of Ichiro not meshing well with his teammates. Is that from Ichiro's personality or his lack of English language skills? Don't know.
The Fan has to do some soul searching on this one. The only thing for sure that the Fan knows is that when Hideki Matsui talked to the press after his glorious World Series heroics, this Fan wanted him to answer in English. The Fan wanted Matsui to talk to us in our language and not his own to his interpretor. Call that wrong if you will and you may be right. This Fan may be displaying some closet Neanderthal type of thought. But that's how the Fan feels. And how do we know that the interpretor is saying exactly what the player actually says. For all we know, Matsui could have been telling the interpretor that the guy with the microphone sure has a big nose. We don't know. The Fan doesn't want to think those kinds of things. The Fan only wants the honest to goodness truth about what Matsui was thinking and feeling at that big moment.
Slusser's article went to great lengths (she really is a good writer) to point out that Matsui's teammates did a lot to make their new DH feel welcome in that clubhouse. The Godzilla doll in his locker was very touching and very funny. But the question remains on how close knit the locker room can be if the baseball Godzilla can't talk to his teammates in their own language.
So what do you think? Is the Fan all wet on this? Probably. But that's the way this Fan was feeling here on Presidents Day when we celebrate our country with yet another patriotic holiday.
Annual President's Day All Star Team Post
In honor of our presidents, here is a repost of the all presidential All Star team:
Since it is President's Day here in the United States, a holiday that means that the government and the banks are closed, but most everyone else is still working, it might be fun to come up with an all President All Star Team. Come up with your own if you can think of those that were missed.
For another take on the holiday, check out fellow BBA member, Shawn Anderson's take over at the Hall of Very Good.
Since it is President's Day here in the United States, a holiday that means that the government and the banks are closed, but most everyone else is still working, it might be fun to come up with an all President All Star Team. Come up with your own if you can think of those that were missed.
- DH - Joe Carter
- LP - Whitey Ford
- RP - Grover Cleveland Alexander
- C - Terry Kennedy, Gary Carter
- 1B - Benjamin ("Ben") Harrison Taylor - Negro League player/manager in the Hall of Fame
- 2B - Jack Roosevelt Robinson - Jackie Robinson!
- SS - Derrel McKinley Harrelson - You'd know him as Bud Harrelson
- 3B - Travis Jackson
- OF - Otis Nixon or Willie Wilson
- OF - George Washington Case - three time All Star in the 40s
- OF - Joseph Jefferson Jackson - Shoeless Joe!
For another take on the holiday, check out fellow BBA member, Shawn Anderson's take over at the Hall of Very Good.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
84 Wins for the Tampa Bay Rays?
Baseball Prospectus has projected the American League East to finish with the following win totals: Boston (93), Yankees (92), Bay Rays (84), Orioles (81) and Blue Jays (76). Granted, those folks are pretty smart. But geez Louise, none of those looks right. For one thing, this is the second year in a row the Blue Jays have been projected behind the Orioles. How can that be? The Blue Jays have a better rotation, a better offense and prospects all over the place. The Orioles won't win 81 games. They might if they played in the AL Central. But they don't. But to this Fan, the 84 win total for the Bay Rays seems...well...ridiculous.
Let's list the reasons why the Bay Rays will blow past 84 wins. First, let's start with the rotation. David Price is simply one of the top five pitchers in the American League and he keeps getting better. 2010 was no fluke and Price is going to be just as good or better in 2011. Jeremy Hellickson will have a full year in the rotation and should be more consistently better than the departed Matt Garza. Well, Hellickson may not be better than Garza when Garza is on, but he'll be just as good overall. Jeff Niemann is a guy just waiting to put things all together. The guy is a monster and sometimes, those tall guys take a little while to figure it all out. But Niemann has been very good at times even when not putting it together. You can see the superstar there waiting to bust out. And then you have Wade Davis as your fourth best starter? Puhleese. Wade Davis and Phil Hughes are two solid young guys that are going to be good starters for a long time. Davis rebounded nicely last year after a poor start. If he gets his homer rate down and gets more confidence, look out. And let's finish off with James Shields. If Shields was your Number 2 or 3 starter like last year, you could be concerned. But if he's your number five starter, wouldn't that be better than 28 of the 29 teams out there? This rotation is very, very good.
The young players just keep coming. In the Fan's mind, the Rays are improved at shortstop, second base, first base, DH and utility. Desmond Jennings is projected as the next big thing. He hasn't shown it yet, but if he gets 600 plate appearances, he should show that his minor league days were no fluke. Jennings is a more disciplined hitter than Crawford and can be just as good an outfielder and base runner. Jennigs could be the rookie of the year if he gets off to a good start.
Reid Brignac is one of this Fan's favorite young players. Love watching this kid play. If he starts at shortstop every day and settles himself down into his major league career, you could see fielding as good as Brendan Ryan. He is also poised to be a lot better on offense than Bartlett. The Fan loves him some Reid Brignac.
Sean Rodriguez should improve at second base as well in his second year. He seemed to have some limitations in his game, but he's a fiery little guy and could become one of the better second baseman in the league. But if he falters, you have Ben Zobrist right there who can play second base every day with the best of them. Zobrist is a bit of a mystery. Was 2009 the real Zobrist or 2010? The two seasons don't even come close to looking like the same player. But Zobrist can play so many positions well that if he offense returns at all, he's the safety valve for any position.
Carlos Pena was so bad last year that anyone could be an improvement...even Pena himself if he had returned. The Bay Rays have some options with Zobrist and Dan Johnson. Any combination they come up with will be better than what Pena put together last year. This Fan is rooting for Pena to rebuild his career. But it won't be with the Bay Rays.
What can you say about the Bay Rays at DH? The position has been abominable for several seasons. Nothing they tried worked. This year, their DH will work. Even if Manny Ramirez doesn't have anything left, you have Damon and either one of those guys can out hit any Rays' DH of the last several years in their sleep. Personally, those signings were brilliant. Not only are they two veterans that have won before, but they can anchor down a young team and lead the way. This Fan feels that Manny is going to have a monster year. None of the projections do justice to how well Manny can hit this year since he doesn't have to play the field and can stay healthy. And like mentioned earlier, if he falters, there is Damon. And the amazing thing about those two signings? They were both cheaper than Pat Burrell!
The bullpen lost a lot of good arms. But bullpens can be rebuilt and the bullpen is less important if you have a great starting rotation. Rays' fans shouldn't worry about the bullpen. Maddon and others will work it out.
So what's left? Oh yeah, you have the best third baseman in baseball in Evan Longoria. You have an enigmatic centerfielder who never seems to figure it out. He can anytime. But if he doesn't? You can trade him, put Jennings out there. Then there is Matt Joyce. Joyce had a strange year last year. His final stats are not impressive. But he came on toward the end of the year and was a force in the post season. Joyce still has superstar potential just waiting to come out. And John Jaso is just fine behind the plate. He's not the best defensive catcher and his offense wore down toward the end of last season. But he is a useful player and better than a lot of teams' catchers.
The great thing about the Bay Rays is that they have so many options. The Bay Rays are not afraid to play young players, try them at new positions and mix and match to come up with the best outcome. Maddon is one of the best young managers in the game.
So yeah, 84 wins seems like a breeze for this team. So many divisions in baseball are going to be fascinating in 2011. But the AL East might just be the most fun three-team dogfight in history. Yeah, a lot has to go right for that to happen, but whenever the Fan thinks about the roster of the Bay Rays, 84 games seems ridiculous.
Let's list the reasons why the Bay Rays will blow past 84 wins. First, let's start with the rotation. David Price is simply one of the top five pitchers in the American League and he keeps getting better. 2010 was no fluke and Price is going to be just as good or better in 2011. Jeremy Hellickson will have a full year in the rotation and should be more consistently better than the departed Matt Garza. Well, Hellickson may not be better than Garza when Garza is on, but he'll be just as good overall. Jeff Niemann is a guy just waiting to put things all together. The guy is a monster and sometimes, those tall guys take a little while to figure it all out. But Niemann has been very good at times even when not putting it together. You can see the superstar there waiting to bust out. And then you have Wade Davis as your fourth best starter? Puhleese. Wade Davis and Phil Hughes are two solid young guys that are going to be good starters for a long time. Davis rebounded nicely last year after a poor start. If he gets his homer rate down and gets more confidence, look out. And let's finish off with James Shields. If Shields was your Number 2 or 3 starter like last year, you could be concerned. But if he's your number five starter, wouldn't that be better than 28 of the 29 teams out there? This rotation is very, very good.
The young players just keep coming. In the Fan's mind, the Rays are improved at shortstop, second base, first base, DH and utility. Desmond Jennings is projected as the next big thing. He hasn't shown it yet, but if he gets 600 plate appearances, he should show that his minor league days were no fluke. Jennings is a more disciplined hitter than Crawford and can be just as good an outfielder and base runner. Jennigs could be the rookie of the year if he gets off to a good start.
Reid Brignac is one of this Fan's favorite young players. Love watching this kid play. If he starts at shortstop every day and settles himself down into his major league career, you could see fielding as good as Brendan Ryan. He is also poised to be a lot better on offense than Bartlett. The Fan loves him some Reid Brignac.
Sean Rodriguez should improve at second base as well in his second year. He seemed to have some limitations in his game, but he's a fiery little guy and could become one of the better second baseman in the league. But if he falters, you have Ben Zobrist right there who can play second base every day with the best of them. Zobrist is a bit of a mystery. Was 2009 the real Zobrist or 2010? The two seasons don't even come close to looking like the same player. But Zobrist can play so many positions well that if he offense returns at all, he's the safety valve for any position.
Carlos Pena was so bad last year that anyone could be an improvement...even Pena himself if he had returned. The Bay Rays have some options with Zobrist and Dan Johnson. Any combination they come up with will be better than what Pena put together last year. This Fan is rooting for Pena to rebuild his career. But it won't be with the Bay Rays.
What can you say about the Bay Rays at DH? The position has been abominable for several seasons. Nothing they tried worked. This year, their DH will work. Even if Manny Ramirez doesn't have anything left, you have Damon and either one of those guys can out hit any Rays' DH of the last several years in their sleep. Personally, those signings were brilliant. Not only are they two veterans that have won before, but they can anchor down a young team and lead the way. This Fan feels that Manny is going to have a monster year. None of the projections do justice to how well Manny can hit this year since he doesn't have to play the field and can stay healthy. And like mentioned earlier, if he falters, there is Damon. And the amazing thing about those two signings? They were both cheaper than Pat Burrell!
The bullpen lost a lot of good arms. But bullpens can be rebuilt and the bullpen is less important if you have a great starting rotation. Rays' fans shouldn't worry about the bullpen. Maddon and others will work it out.
So what's left? Oh yeah, you have the best third baseman in baseball in Evan Longoria. You have an enigmatic centerfielder who never seems to figure it out. He can anytime. But if he doesn't? You can trade him, put Jennings out there. Then there is Matt Joyce. Joyce had a strange year last year. His final stats are not impressive. But he came on toward the end of the year and was a force in the post season. Joyce still has superstar potential just waiting to come out. And John Jaso is just fine behind the plate. He's not the best defensive catcher and his offense wore down toward the end of last season. But he is a useful player and better than a lot of teams' catchers.
The great thing about the Bay Rays is that they have so many options. The Bay Rays are not afraid to play young players, try them at new positions and mix and match to come up with the best outcome. Maddon is one of the best young managers in the game.
So yeah, 84 wins seems like a breeze for this team. So many divisions in baseball are going to be fascinating in 2011. But the AL East might just be the most fun three-team dogfight in history. Yeah, a lot has to go right for that to happen, but whenever the Fan thinks about the roster of the Bay Rays, 84 games seems ridiculous.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Where Will the Seattle Mariners Pick Up Nine Wins?
Slowly but surely, the projections systems are cranking out their data. ZiPS, Chone, Marcel, Bill James, Baseball Prospectus (and PECOTA) are just some of the systems that crunch the numbers and spit out their expected results. Since looking at statistics are one of this writer's favorite activities (though interpreting them are still a weakness), the Fan thought he would once again look at Ichiro Suzuki's page because all those hits and little else are so much fun to look at. While there, the plight of the Seattle Mariners as a whole crossed the mind and the Fan decided to see what was out there for projections for the wayward team. One, Baseball Prospectus, projects the Mariners to win 70 games. That's not very good, but at least it's nine games better than last year when the team finished at 61-101. But the question that projection brought up was: Where are they going to pick up nine wins?
The Mariners had the benefit of Clif Lee last year for thirteen starts. He won eight of them. There won't be any Cliff Lee this year. Despite heroic efforts, Felix Hernandez only won 13 games. If he pitches with similar dominance this coming season--and there is no reason why he shouldn't--then you can figure he'll win 15 or 16 games (BP gives him 17). That increase takes up half of Lee's slack. But we're still in the negative column. Where are the other wins going to come from?
The rest of the rotation is problematic. Once again, we have a hopeful Eric Bedard. We'll put that in the, "I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it" category. There is Doug Fister, who at 27, should improve a bit. He does a great job of limiting walks and homers, but has a low strikeout rate. There is no reason he can't win ten games with a league average ERA. That's another plus four so we are still dead even with last year.
There is Jason Vargas, who will be 28 in 2011. He's another guy who limits walks (not as well as Fister) and homers, doesn't give up as many hits as Fister but doesn't strike out a whole lot more either. The best you can hope for there is another league average season with possibly ten wins. Okay, we're at plus one now.
But then you get into a whole lot of what ifs. One projection included youngster, Michael Pineda, an impressive 22 year old right-hander. The projection gave him six wins and a good strikeout to walk ratio. That's a lot of hope for a kid who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. But okay, we'll go with that. Those six wins are five better than Ryan Rowland-Smith, who took his hyphen and ran as fast as he could to Houston. So we are plus six. We only need six more wins to stay that far ahead in the rotation. The Mariners should be able to find them from Luke French or somebody.
So let's for the sake of argument, give the starting rotation a plus 6 for wins. We still need to find three more. It won't come from the relief pitchers. There is serious concern about David Aardsma, a pitcher for the record books if only because of all major league players that ever played, his name will always be first on the list. Aardsma has had some success as a closer, but he's not a mortal lock down guy. His 4.5 walks per nine make things adventurous and the team has no ability to overcome blown saves with its offense. Plus, Aardsma is injured and starts the season with a question mark.
The rest of the bullpen is a hodge-podge of guys like Brandon League Average. Ha! The Fan loves that. Brandon League Average. hehe. Apologies. But anyway, the Mariners have some young guys that can throw hard like Dan Cortes, but this bullpen will be a work in progress. So let's give it the benefit of the doubt that it won't be any worse or better than last year. We're still up six games.
And finally we get to the offense. Baseball Think Factory makes the point that only four teams have more underperformed their projected offense than the Mariners did last year. And of the ten all time under performing teams, they collectively rebounded by +.0.6 runs per game the following year. But just what have the Mariners done to improve their offense? Their only hope there is that some of the players who were bloody awful last year get back closer to their career norms. Can you hope for that from Milton Bradley at this point? This Fan can't.
Chone Figgins is one that should improve. But most projections have him finishing with a .675 OPS instead of the .646 stinker he put up in 2010. The Fan thinks that is pessimistic. Figgins should improve and hit better than his .263 projection. Just putting him back to third base should be enough to add a level of comfort needed to hit better. Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez are this Fan's favorites for a nice rebound. Gutierrez has this bizarre odd/even year thing going. If that keeps true to form, this should be the good year. How scientific of the Fan, eh?
But shorstop and catcher are this Fan's biggest concerns. Catchers for the Mariners did not even hit above the Mendoza Line last year. Projections give starter, Adam Moore a .243 batting average for 2011. But that sounds awful high for a guy who didn't even hit .200 last year. The Mariners have some great fielding infielders like Jack Wilson, Brendan Ryan to figure out who is going to play in the middle of the diamond. The problem is that none of them are much on the offensive side. This Fan would say that Brendan Ryan has the most upside, especially away from LaRussa.
A real key to finding the four more wins from the offensive side will be guys like Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders and Dustin Ackley. They are all good prospects that have to take the next step in becoming productive major league players. Neither Smoak nor Saunders have shown much at the highest level in their brief looks.
There are two things to say about the Mariners this coming season. One is that there doesn't seem to be any possible way for the offense to be as bad as it was last year. But unless certain key things happen, it bloody well could be as bad. The back end of the rotation...well, let's say the entire rotation after Hernandez is suspect. If the offense rebounds just a little, the Mariners could pick up a few games up in the win columns. But this Fan just can't seem them winning 70 games as much as the brain tries to find a way.
The Mariners had the benefit of Clif Lee last year for thirteen starts. He won eight of them. There won't be any Cliff Lee this year. Despite heroic efforts, Felix Hernandez only won 13 games. If he pitches with similar dominance this coming season--and there is no reason why he shouldn't--then you can figure he'll win 15 or 16 games (BP gives him 17). That increase takes up half of Lee's slack. But we're still in the negative column. Where are the other wins going to come from?
The rest of the rotation is problematic. Once again, we have a hopeful Eric Bedard. We'll put that in the, "I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it" category. There is Doug Fister, who at 27, should improve a bit. He does a great job of limiting walks and homers, but has a low strikeout rate. There is no reason he can't win ten games with a league average ERA. That's another plus four so we are still dead even with last year.
There is Jason Vargas, who will be 28 in 2011. He's another guy who limits walks (not as well as Fister) and homers, doesn't give up as many hits as Fister but doesn't strike out a whole lot more either. The best you can hope for there is another league average season with possibly ten wins. Okay, we're at plus one now.
But then you get into a whole lot of what ifs. One projection included youngster, Michael Pineda, an impressive 22 year old right-hander. The projection gave him six wins and a good strikeout to walk ratio. That's a lot of hope for a kid who has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. But okay, we'll go with that. Those six wins are five better than Ryan Rowland-Smith, who took his hyphen and ran as fast as he could to Houston. So we are plus six. We only need six more wins to stay that far ahead in the rotation. The Mariners should be able to find them from Luke French or somebody.
So let's for the sake of argument, give the starting rotation a plus 6 for wins. We still need to find three more. It won't come from the relief pitchers. There is serious concern about David Aardsma, a pitcher for the record books if only because of all major league players that ever played, his name will always be first on the list. Aardsma has had some success as a closer, but he's not a mortal lock down guy. His 4.5 walks per nine make things adventurous and the team has no ability to overcome blown saves with its offense. Plus, Aardsma is injured and starts the season with a question mark.
The rest of the bullpen is a hodge-podge of guys like Brandon League Average. Ha! The Fan loves that. Brandon League Average. hehe. Apologies. But anyway, the Mariners have some young guys that can throw hard like Dan Cortes, but this bullpen will be a work in progress. So let's give it the benefit of the doubt that it won't be any worse or better than last year. We're still up six games.
And finally we get to the offense. Baseball Think Factory makes the point that only four teams have more underperformed their projected offense than the Mariners did last year. And of the ten all time under performing teams, they collectively rebounded by +.0.6 runs per game the following year. But just what have the Mariners done to improve their offense? Their only hope there is that some of the players who were bloody awful last year get back closer to their career norms. Can you hope for that from Milton Bradley at this point? This Fan can't.
Chone Figgins is one that should improve. But most projections have him finishing with a .675 OPS instead of the .646 stinker he put up in 2010. The Fan thinks that is pessimistic. Figgins should improve and hit better than his .263 projection. Just putting him back to third base should be enough to add a level of comfort needed to hit better. Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez are this Fan's favorites for a nice rebound. Gutierrez has this bizarre odd/even year thing going. If that keeps true to form, this should be the good year. How scientific of the Fan, eh?
But shorstop and catcher are this Fan's biggest concerns. Catchers for the Mariners did not even hit above the Mendoza Line last year. Projections give starter, Adam Moore a .243 batting average for 2011. But that sounds awful high for a guy who didn't even hit .200 last year. The Mariners have some great fielding infielders like Jack Wilson, Brendan Ryan to figure out who is going to play in the middle of the diamond. The problem is that none of them are much on the offensive side. This Fan would say that Brendan Ryan has the most upside, especially away from LaRussa.
A real key to finding the four more wins from the offensive side will be guys like Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders and Dustin Ackley. They are all good prospects that have to take the next step in becoming productive major league players. Neither Smoak nor Saunders have shown much at the highest level in their brief looks.
There are two things to say about the Mariners this coming season. One is that there doesn't seem to be any possible way for the offense to be as bad as it was last year. But unless certain key things happen, it bloody well could be as bad. The back end of the rotation...well, let's say the entire rotation after Hernandez is suspect. If the offense rebounds just a little, the Mariners could pick up a few games up in the win columns. But this Fan just can't seem them winning 70 games as much as the brain tries to find a way.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Strat-O-Matic Baseball and Fantasy Sports
Strat-O-Matic celebrated its fiftieth year recently and reading those stories sure brought back fond memories. In many ways it was the perfect game in that it took our built in love for the backbone of baseball (the stats) and forced them into a game where you could create your own season and see what happened. I remember the first time seeing an ad for the game in the Sporting News, a magazine I was fortunate enough to receive every week for most of my childhood. That magazine, which was always printed on newspaper stock, was devoured religiously for the great writing on each team AND the statistics section in the back. That this game was advertised by such a great periodical was good enough for me and it was ordered with paper route money.
And in many ways, Strat-O-Matic was a continuation on a tradition we kids had already built. I had created my own dice baseball game before that and my brother, a best friend and I played entire seasons based on this dice game. I remember that seven was a strikeout and a twelve was a homer because of the rarity of it. It wasn't a scientific game, but it was played and created with some rudimentary knowledge of how often certain events occurred in the game. Once we received Strat-O-Matic, we didn't need the dice game.
We must have played thousands of games of Strat-O-Matic as we created our own seasons with all the teams and played 162 game schedules for all the teams. That meant that we kept box scores and intimate statistics on the games' results. It's really too bad I never took this love of statistics to a professional level. I could be Tango Tiger right now if I had. Anyway, we had notebooks full of the score sheets and statistics. I remember that my favorite player was Mike Shannon, the former Cardinal who I believe still works on their broadcast team. For some reason, he was always a star in our leagues and always among the league leaders. There was a White Sox pitcher who was also fabulous for me but I can't remember his name. According to his playing card, he only started like 13 games with some success. I parlayed that into a thirty start season and he won over 20 games. Strat-O-Matic pitchers never got sore arms.
I think I stopped playing once I went off to college. In fact, I'm sure I did. Then a decade or so ago, the Fantasy sports craze started. And really, to me, Fantasy leagues are a natural evolution from those of us who played Strat-O-Matic (which is proving to be mighty tough to type over and over). Again, the game was based on statistics except this time, it wasn't the stats from the prior year, but as they were occurring in real time. Needless to say, I got highly involved in Fantasy baseball and football.
But I have had to stop. For one, they require time I no longer can justify to do it well. Secondly, I found it was changing how I was watching the games. In the past, I always watched games rooting for one particular team. For a Fan, there is always a hierarchy of teams. Now that I am a "journalist," I'm not sure I can list that hierarchy. But let's say the Rangers are ahead of the Angels on that hierarchy. So if the Rangers were playing the Angels on television, I would root for the Rangers.
But once you get into Fantasy sports, it changes how you root for games. Say you have Jered Weaver on your fantasy team and he was starting for the Angels in that game against the Rangers. Then what happens to who you root for? Since I write about baseball exclusively, I can safely say that I am a huge Patriots fan in football and have been since the Steve Grogan days. But with Fantasy, suddenly you are hoping that the running back on the hated Jets rushed for 100 yards when that might not be in the best interest of your favorite team winning the game. See what I mean? You become divided in your loyalties and that's stressful. All I wanted to do was watch a game and root for a team to win. Fantasy made that complicated and life is complicated enough.
But Fantasy sports are huge businesses now and a thousand blogs are devoted to just that aspect of sports. Each large mainstream media site has a featured Fantasy writer. And that's okay with me. I have no problem with that. As long as it builds interest in my favorite sport, all the better. I just can't do it anymore. This house was too divided and it drove me crazy.
And in many ways, Strat-O-Matic was a continuation on a tradition we kids had already built. I had created my own dice baseball game before that and my brother, a best friend and I played entire seasons based on this dice game. I remember that seven was a strikeout and a twelve was a homer because of the rarity of it. It wasn't a scientific game, but it was played and created with some rudimentary knowledge of how often certain events occurred in the game. Once we received Strat-O-Matic, we didn't need the dice game.
We must have played thousands of games of Strat-O-Matic as we created our own seasons with all the teams and played 162 game schedules for all the teams. That meant that we kept box scores and intimate statistics on the games' results. It's really too bad I never took this love of statistics to a professional level. I could be Tango Tiger right now if I had. Anyway, we had notebooks full of the score sheets and statistics. I remember that my favorite player was Mike Shannon, the former Cardinal who I believe still works on their broadcast team. For some reason, he was always a star in our leagues and always among the league leaders. There was a White Sox pitcher who was also fabulous for me but I can't remember his name. According to his playing card, he only started like 13 games with some success. I parlayed that into a thirty start season and he won over 20 games. Strat-O-Matic pitchers never got sore arms.
I think I stopped playing once I went off to college. In fact, I'm sure I did. Then a decade or so ago, the Fantasy sports craze started. And really, to me, Fantasy leagues are a natural evolution from those of us who played Strat-O-Matic (which is proving to be mighty tough to type over and over). Again, the game was based on statistics except this time, it wasn't the stats from the prior year, but as they were occurring in real time. Needless to say, I got highly involved in Fantasy baseball and football.
But I have had to stop. For one, they require time I no longer can justify to do it well. Secondly, I found it was changing how I was watching the games. In the past, I always watched games rooting for one particular team. For a Fan, there is always a hierarchy of teams. Now that I am a "journalist," I'm not sure I can list that hierarchy. But let's say the Rangers are ahead of the Angels on that hierarchy. So if the Rangers were playing the Angels on television, I would root for the Rangers.
But once you get into Fantasy sports, it changes how you root for games. Say you have Jered Weaver on your fantasy team and he was starting for the Angels in that game against the Rangers. Then what happens to who you root for? Since I write about baseball exclusively, I can safely say that I am a huge Patriots fan in football and have been since the Steve Grogan days. But with Fantasy, suddenly you are hoping that the running back on the hated Jets rushed for 100 yards when that might not be in the best interest of your favorite team winning the game. See what I mean? You become divided in your loyalties and that's stressful. All I wanted to do was watch a game and root for a team to win. Fantasy made that complicated and life is complicated enough.
But Fantasy sports are huge businesses now and a thousand blogs are devoted to just that aspect of sports. Each large mainstream media site has a featured Fantasy writer. And that's okay with me. I have no problem with that. As long as it builds interest in my favorite sport, all the better. I just can't do it anymore. This house was too divided and it drove me crazy.
Miguel Cabrera Merits Concern, Not Judgement
There is a certain slice of our society that received the news concerning the arrest of Miguel Cabrera with either glee or condemnation. Throw the bum in jail was probably an oft repeated thought. And yes, on the one hand, over-pampered athletes that make millions of dollars to do something we would all love to be able to do get little sympathy when they get into trouble. And yes, there is always the knowledge that what Cabrera chose to do could have killed somebody. The Fan gets all of those thoughts and ideas. And perhaps the Fan is an old softy, but this news was not good news. It was sad news.
It was sad because most of us believed that Cabrera was over the problems that made him an embarrassment at the end of the 2009 season when he let his teammates down during the pennant stretch. If Cabrera was not forthright about his shame at his problems, if he hadn't apologized so profusely or worked so hard to beat the alcohol, we wouldn't be sad. But he did all those things. He was a different man last year and his play reflected his sobriety and his new status as a dry ball player. That Cabrera was worth rooting for and someone to be encouraged about. His arrest is shocking to the system and shocking how far a person can fall.
But it really isn't shocking if you have any experience with alcohol or drug addiction. This writer has a family riddled with the stuff and it's a painful family shame and the stress is extreme. When you live through that kind of thing, you understand that addiction is never beaten. It is only handled and overcome on a daily basis. Many addicted who spend some time away from the root of their problem think that one drink won't hurt or that an occasional taste won't hurt. But it's all that is needed to restart the snowball from hell to start running down a hill. Consider cigarette smoking. Many have quit that awful and sad addiction for months or even years at a time only to fall prey to the addiction from a family stress situation or a few too many to drink at a party.
No, Miguel Cabrera doesn't get a free pass this time. He needs to confront and face this episode and work with doctors to get him back on the dry side. But the last thing Cabrera needs is judgement and punishment. If anything, facing his problem should be the alternative to punishment and only failing to work on solutions for his life should lead to suspensions and that sort of thing.
You have to have experience with addiction to know how difficult this is. If you and your family have been immune to this kind of situation, it's very difficult to explain to have you understand. Yes, all addiction stems from choices. Yes, to a strong degree, we have control over those choices. But life can be hard and sometimes resolve can crumble in a quick spate of depression. It happens.
Ultimately, this Fan will root for Cabrera. He's not just a rich ball player. He's a human being with a family and children. His blood runs red and he's part of the human family. How can you not root for him to learn from this experience and work diligently to keep it from being repeated? People around him are affected too and thus they need our support and prayers. Point fingers if you must. Be one of the throng that shout epithets to him at the stadium. Not this Fan. This Fan will be concerned with thoughts only on Cabrera being well and a healthy member of society and our human family.
It was sad because most of us believed that Cabrera was over the problems that made him an embarrassment at the end of the 2009 season when he let his teammates down during the pennant stretch. If Cabrera was not forthright about his shame at his problems, if he hadn't apologized so profusely or worked so hard to beat the alcohol, we wouldn't be sad. But he did all those things. He was a different man last year and his play reflected his sobriety and his new status as a dry ball player. That Cabrera was worth rooting for and someone to be encouraged about. His arrest is shocking to the system and shocking how far a person can fall.
But it really isn't shocking if you have any experience with alcohol or drug addiction. This writer has a family riddled with the stuff and it's a painful family shame and the stress is extreme. When you live through that kind of thing, you understand that addiction is never beaten. It is only handled and overcome on a daily basis. Many addicted who spend some time away from the root of their problem think that one drink won't hurt or that an occasional taste won't hurt. But it's all that is needed to restart the snowball from hell to start running down a hill. Consider cigarette smoking. Many have quit that awful and sad addiction for months or even years at a time only to fall prey to the addiction from a family stress situation or a few too many to drink at a party.
No, Miguel Cabrera doesn't get a free pass this time. He needs to confront and face this episode and work with doctors to get him back on the dry side. But the last thing Cabrera needs is judgement and punishment. If anything, facing his problem should be the alternative to punishment and only failing to work on solutions for his life should lead to suspensions and that sort of thing.
You have to have experience with addiction to know how difficult this is. If you and your family have been immune to this kind of situation, it's very difficult to explain to have you understand. Yes, all addiction stems from choices. Yes, to a strong degree, we have control over those choices. But life can be hard and sometimes resolve can crumble in a quick spate of depression. It happens.
Ultimately, this Fan will root for Cabrera. He's not just a rich ball player. He's a human being with a family and children. His blood runs red and he's part of the human family. How can you not root for him to learn from this experience and work diligently to keep it from being repeated? People around him are affected too and thus they need our support and prayers. Point fingers if you must. Be one of the throng that shout epithets to him at the stadium. Not this Fan. This Fan will be concerned with thoughts only on Cabrera being well and a healthy member of society and our human family.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
When Did We Get a "Cardinal Nation"?
Yesterday, after Albert Pujols ended negotiations with the Cardinals due to his "self-imposed" deadline, Pujols released a statement to the USA Today. The statement, which, if you'll forgive this Fan, reads a bit self-serving and trite, personally addresses "Cardinal Nation" promising them his full effort just like always. It was the first time this writer had ever heard the term, "Cardinal Nation." Certainly, we have heard Red Sox Nation to the point of nausea. But the Fan never heard of Cardinal Nation. Is this a recent development?
Apparently this is not a overly new development. There is a Cardinal Nation blog that was started in June of 2010. But that wasn't that long ago. No, that's wrong. Their on-site archive only goes back that far, but there are posts to be found from that site back before then. There was or is another site called Cardinal-nation.com with the hyphen. How old is the term? Did it come before the Red Sox Nation or after? There is a Cardinal Nation Facebook group.
Simply doing Google searches, the term was being used in 2008 and 2007 and 2006. The Sporting News Books advertised its third edition "Cardinal Nation" hardcover book in 2005. So that brings us back to at least 2002. The Facebook group by that name was founded in 2001. Okay, so this has been around a while then? Who knew? Well, obviously Cardinal fans knew as this has been an ongoing thing for a long time.
So then the Fan was all wet. This isn't a situation of the Cardinals copying the Red Sox. It seems it's the other way around. This writer has been in New England for a long time and the whole Red Sox Nation thing didn't really begin until the Red Sox won the World Series and broke the curse. What was at first a pleasant feeling for long-suffering Red Sox fans has turned into an insufferable arrogance as that team's fans follow the team and are in attendance at stadiums all over the country. The Red Sox Nation has come to represent a snobbish and uppity feeling that the Red Sox and their fans are smarter and better than anyone else. Of course, the Fan knows not all Red Sox fans are like that. But still, if you mention the term to most baseball fans around the country, a distasteful look will occupy most faces.
And so it wasn't the Cardinals who copied the Red Sox, it was the other way around and this Fan is now properly educated. Thankfully, reading that trite and self-serving statement by Pujols led to an education in something the Fan wasn't aware of and is happy to have learned correctly. After this scientific study (...ahem) into the past, the Cardinals and their fans rightly own the term. Carry on, Cardinal Nation. Carry on.
Apparently this is not a overly new development. There is a Cardinal Nation blog that was started in June of 2010. But that wasn't that long ago. No, that's wrong. Their on-site archive only goes back that far, but there are posts to be found from that site back before then. There was or is another site called Cardinal-nation.com with the hyphen. How old is the term? Did it come before the Red Sox Nation or after? There is a Cardinal Nation Facebook group.
Simply doing Google searches, the term was being used in 2008 and 2007 and 2006. The Sporting News Books advertised its third edition "Cardinal Nation" hardcover book in 2005. So that brings us back to at least 2002. The Facebook group by that name was founded in 2001. Okay, so this has been around a while then? Who knew? Well, obviously Cardinal fans knew as this has been an ongoing thing for a long time.
So then the Fan was all wet. This isn't a situation of the Cardinals copying the Red Sox. It seems it's the other way around. This writer has been in New England for a long time and the whole Red Sox Nation thing didn't really begin until the Red Sox won the World Series and broke the curse. What was at first a pleasant feeling for long-suffering Red Sox fans has turned into an insufferable arrogance as that team's fans follow the team and are in attendance at stadiums all over the country. The Red Sox Nation has come to represent a snobbish and uppity feeling that the Red Sox and their fans are smarter and better than anyone else. Of course, the Fan knows not all Red Sox fans are like that. But still, if you mention the term to most baseball fans around the country, a distasteful look will occupy most faces.
And so it wasn't the Cardinals who copied the Red Sox, it was the other way around and this Fan is now properly educated. Thankfully, reading that trite and self-serving statement by Pujols led to an education in something the Fan wasn't aware of and is happy to have learned correctly. After this scientific study (...ahem) into the past, the Cardinals and their fans rightly own the term. Carry on, Cardinal Nation. Carry on.
Andruw Jones is a Great Addition to Yankees
Memories of Andruw Jones always begin with the 1996 World Series against the Yankees. His amazing performance in that series as a rookie included a .400 batting average in a losing cause. Never had a rookie made his presence felt so fast and so explosive. Has it really been almost fifteen years since then? And it's been half a dozen years since Andruw Jones was everyone's favorite center fielder. He was an early star on the fledgling days of ESPN's Baseball Tonight with his nightly highlight poetics and big homeruns. That Andruw Jones is probably long gone. But Jones is now a member of the Yankees, the team he almost beat single-handedly all those years ago. And he could be a significant player for the team this season.
Most know the story of the downfall of Andruw Jones. He got fat and lazy, the story goes. He got homer happy which led to a 51 homer season, but an erosion of the rest of his batting skills. According to Fangraphs, he was a $28 million player in 2005. Just three short seasons later, he famously batted .158 for the Dodgers with a .259 slugging percentage. He was lost and he was a disaster. The Rangers picked him up in 2009 and his power picked back up but he still hit only .214 in 331 plate appearances. What looked like a sure Hall of Fame career was going up in smoke. The Rangers gave up on him too.
Jones then signed with the White Sox in 2010 and ended up posting a 119 OPS+ despite batting only .230. But .230 with his power and his ability to work a walk showed some signs that perhaps his career wasn't dead after all. Hit hit 19 homers for Ozzie Guillen in only 278 at bats and gave the White Sox almost $15 million in value. He played all three outfield positions but was best in right field. He's no longer a viable centerfielder. Those days are gone unfortunately.
And so his year with the White Sox earned him a $2.0 million contract with the Yankees for 2011. As a fourth outfielder, if he performs exactly as last year, he will be a steal. He can give Granderson and Gardner days off against tough lefties and add a potent right-handed bat into the line up. And most importantly, Jones is a good insurance policy if the Yankees want to trade Swisher in the last year of his deal.
Not that there isn't cause for some concern. While Jones can still hit a fastball and his homer to fly ball ratio is excellent, his line drive percentage has shrunk to minuscule proportions (11 percent last year). While he has a very good eye and only swung at 25 percent of pitches out of the strike zone, he is still vulnerable to the slider off the outside of the plate, something the Yankees have had a heavy dose of over the years (Soriano, Thames, etc.). His power may take a hit in the spacious left field of the Yankees. But again, even with all those negatives, he will be more valuable than Thames was for the Yankees for several reasons.
First, Thames really couldn't play the field. So if you wanted to get his bat in the line up--particularly against lefties--he had to play in the field. That wasn't pretty to watch. Jones will not be that much of a loss in the outfield when he spells those wonderful fielding outfielders the Yankees have. Plus, Jones is a more disciplined hitter than Thames, has just as much power and still runs the bases fairly well (Thames was like a lumbering bull). Jones stole nine bases in eleven attempts last year. But most importantly, if the Yankees get to the post season, Jones has a proven track record there. He has hit ten post season homers in his career and has a .797 OPS over his post season career. Thames was brutal in the post season.
It's not like Andruw Jones is an old man. At 34, he is younger than people think (he was 19 his rookie season). And with a commitment after the lost years to conditioning, he could still have a few productive seasons within him. For $2.0 million plus incentives, Jones is a sweet deal for the Yankees.
Most know the story of the downfall of Andruw Jones. He got fat and lazy, the story goes. He got homer happy which led to a 51 homer season, but an erosion of the rest of his batting skills. According to Fangraphs, he was a $28 million player in 2005. Just three short seasons later, he famously batted .158 for the Dodgers with a .259 slugging percentage. He was lost and he was a disaster. The Rangers picked him up in 2009 and his power picked back up but he still hit only .214 in 331 plate appearances. What looked like a sure Hall of Fame career was going up in smoke. The Rangers gave up on him too.
Jones then signed with the White Sox in 2010 and ended up posting a 119 OPS+ despite batting only .230. But .230 with his power and his ability to work a walk showed some signs that perhaps his career wasn't dead after all. Hit hit 19 homers for Ozzie Guillen in only 278 at bats and gave the White Sox almost $15 million in value. He played all three outfield positions but was best in right field. He's no longer a viable centerfielder. Those days are gone unfortunately.
And so his year with the White Sox earned him a $2.0 million contract with the Yankees for 2011. As a fourth outfielder, if he performs exactly as last year, he will be a steal. He can give Granderson and Gardner days off against tough lefties and add a potent right-handed bat into the line up. And most importantly, Jones is a good insurance policy if the Yankees want to trade Swisher in the last year of his deal.
Not that there isn't cause for some concern. While Jones can still hit a fastball and his homer to fly ball ratio is excellent, his line drive percentage has shrunk to minuscule proportions (11 percent last year). While he has a very good eye and only swung at 25 percent of pitches out of the strike zone, he is still vulnerable to the slider off the outside of the plate, something the Yankees have had a heavy dose of over the years (Soriano, Thames, etc.). His power may take a hit in the spacious left field of the Yankees. But again, even with all those negatives, he will be more valuable than Thames was for the Yankees for several reasons.
First, Thames really couldn't play the field. So if you wanted to get his bat in the line up--particularly against lefties--he had to play in the field. That wasn't pretty to watch. Jones will not be that much of a loss in the outfield when he spells those wonderful fielding outfielders the Yankees have. Plus, Jones is a more disciplined hitter than Thames, has just as much power and still runs the bases fairly well (Thames was like a lumbering bull). Jones stole nine bases in eleven attempts last year. But most importantly, if the Yankees get to the post season, Jones has a proven track record there. He has hit ten post season homers in his career and has a .797 OPS over his post season career. Thames was brutal in the post season.
It's not like Andruw Jones is an old man. At 34, he is younger than people think (he was 19 his rookie season). And with a commitment after the lost years to conditioning, he could still have a few productive seasons within him. For $2.0 million plus incentives, Jones is a sweet deal for the Yankees.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
The Mark Kotsay Syndrome Revisited
A week or so ago in this space, we talked about how teams rely on veteran players to fill out their rosters despite that fact that many of them provide no overall value to their teams. Mark Kotsay was used as an example and we used his name for the "syndrome." But we very well could have used Jerry Hairston, Jr., Kotsay's teammate, Craig Counsell or any other of the dozens of players who continue to get jobs years after year despite the fact they provide a wins above replacement (WAR) in the negative numbers. In fact, a further study found that in 2010, there were 123 players (non-pitchers) who had over 100 plate appearances and finished with a WAR of zero or in the negative numbers. 123!
The Fan read off some of that list on his podcast last night and many of the names are no doubt familiar to you. Some will open the season as starters for their respective teams (Getz, Theriot). But many of the same group of guys that hang around year after year. Many of them are catchers of the Butera, Molina, Hester and Cash variety. If you can squat for five innings, you can play in the major leagues for fifteen years. It doesn't matter if you are any good or not.
The point of the original post was that these guys are kept around because managers and general managers are more comfortable with "proven" major league-experienced players than they are with youngsters. Many of those people will say that these veterans add to the clubhouse. That must be a lot of clubhouse value to those guys to keep so many of them without value around for so long. Kevin Millar made five or six extra years in his career because of his "clubhouse" gifts.
The other point in the original post was that these guys are more expensive than the major league minimum in most cases. Kotsay will make $800,000 or almost double the minimum. Many will make in the millions. Many teams cry poverty and budget restrictions and yet will sign Melky Cabrera, Pedro Feliz and others way above major league minimum despite their history of no or negative value. Feliz finished last year with a WAR of -2.3, the lowest non-pitcher with more than 100 plate appearances. Yet, Feliz has a job (with the Royals) for far over the minimum. It just seems to this observer that teams could save a lot of money and not lose a whole lot of player value by always rounding out their rosters with rookie players to act as their utility people. The Tampa Bay Rays do this to perfection most of the time. If the Fan was running a team, the utility guy would always be a first or second year player making near the minimum.
This topic fascinates the Fan and this writer finds it amazing that so many fringe players hang around so long. Not only does this cost teams money now but also later as these marginal players who hang around for years add to their retirement packages by playing that long. It seems foolish when you think about it. After some careful (unprofessional) study, the Fan found that the 123 total of 2010 was certainly not out of line for the total amount of MLB players with a zero WAR or with a negative number. Below is a little chart the Fan put together of the totals for each decade going back to the 1911. The number on the left is the decade and the number on the right was the amount of players with 100 plate appearances and zero or negative WAR.
At first the Fan was struck by how large the numbers have gotten over the years. If you used a graph to show the increase over the years, it would look like this:
But then the Fan remembered that the teams have increased over the years and so there would be many more players. The number of teams chart looks very similar to the one above. Those early decades had 16 teams and then it moved to 20 and then 24, then 26 and finally 30. So it's more instructive to look at the percentage of players over the years who fit our category. That is, the percentage of total players in a league for a decade.
And the percentage over the years looks like this:
1911 - 20 - 18.78% Dead ball era.
1921 - 30 - 17.15% Getting into live ball era
1931 - 40 - 15.70% Real hitters' era
1941 - 50 - 17.60% More mediocre players due to WWII
1951 - 60 - 16.38%
1961 - 70 - 18.66% First wave of expansion. Pitchers' era
1971 - 80 - 19.57% Still pitchers era?
1981 - 90 - 16.63%
1991 - 00 - 16.55%
2001 - 10 - 16.87%
As you can see, those numbers are pretty consistent over the eras with slight variations due to conditions in the game. You can also see that the last three decades have shown a vast improvement over the 1960s and 1970s, so perhaps we are getting smarter.
The conclusion of all this is that first, sixteen and a half to twenty percent of the majors has been made up of non-pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances that end up with zero or lower value. It also shows that managers across time have held onto players with little value as comfort food. That was okay in the old days when players cost relatively little. But it's simply not financially acceptable to keep pouring money into fringe players that have hung around for five years or more and have proven over and over that they offer little, no or negative value at a rate of pay much higher than the major league minimum.
The Fan read off some of that list on his podcast last night and many of the names are no doubt familiar to you. Some will open the season as starters for their respective teams (Getz, Theriot). But many of the same group of guys that hang around year after year. Many of them are catchers of the Butera, Molina, Hester and Cash variety. If you can squat for five innings, you can play in the major leagues for fifteen years. It doesn't matter if you are any good or not.
The point of the original post was that these guys are kept around because managers and general managers are more comfortable with "proven" major league-experienced players than they are with youngsters. Many of those people will say that these veterans add to the clubhouse. That must be a lot of clubhouse value to those guys to keep so many of them without value around for so long. Kevin Millar made five or six extra years in his career because of his "clubhouse" gifts.
The other point in the original post was that these guys are more expensive than the major league minimum in most cases. Kotsay will make $800,000 or almost double the minimum. Many will make in the millions. Many teams cry poverty and budget restrictions and yet will sign Melky Cabrera, Pedro Feliz and others way above major league minimum despite their history of no or negative value. Feliz finished last year with a WAR of -2.3, the lowest non-pitcher with more than 100 plate appearances. Yet, Feliz has a job (with the Royals) for far over the minimum. It just seems to this observer that teams could save a lot of money and not lose a whole lot of player value by always rounding out their rosters with rookie players to act as their utility people. The Tampa Bay Rays do this to perfection most of the time. If the Fan was running a team, the utility guy would always be a first or second year player making near the minimum.
This topic fascinates the Fan and this writer finds it amazing that so many fringe players hang around so long. Not only does this cost teams money now but also later as these marginal players who hang around for years add to their retirement packages by playing that long. It seems foolish when you think about it. After some careful (unprofessional) study, the Fan found that the 123 total of 2010 was certainly not out of line for the total amount of MLB players with a zero WAR or with a negative number. Below is a little chart the Fan put together of the totals for each decade going back to the 1911. The number on the left is the decade and the number on the right was the amount of players with 100 plate appearances and zero or negative WAR.
And the percentage over the years looks like this:
1911 - 20 - 18.78% Dead ball era.
1921 - 30 - 17.15% Getting into live ball era
1931 - 40 - 15.70% Real hitters' era
1941 - 50 - 17.60% More mediocre players due to WWII
1951 - 60 - 16.38%
1961 - 70 - 18.66% First wave of expansion. Pitchers' era
1971 - 80 - 19.57% Still pitchers era?
1981 - 90 - 16.63%
1991 - 00 - 16.55%
2001 - 10 - 16.87%
As you can see, those numbers are pretty consistent over the eras with slight variations due to conditions in the game. You can also see that the last three decades have shown a vast improvement over the 1960s and 1970s, so perhaps we are getting smarter.
The conclusion of all this is that first, sixteen and a half to twenty percent of the majors has been made up of non-pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances that end up with zero or lower value. It also shows that managers across time have held onto players with little value as comfort food. That was okay in the old days when players cost relatively little. But it's simply not financially acceptable to keep pouring money into fringe players that have hung around for five years or more and have proven over and over that they offer little, no or negative value at a rate of pay much higher than the major league minimum.
Josh Hamilton Leads Rangers for Repeat
Peter Gammons wrote a wonderful piece on how Josh Hamilton has inspired a former number one pick and addict, Jeff Allison. It's a great story as only Peter Gammons can write it. With Josh Hamilton, his past will always be a part of the story, and his past also leads to the real fear that he can always fall again. Every indication is that Hamilton has his life under control and while we all pray that is the case, as long as he plays for the Texas Rangers, he will lead that team as they begin their run to defend their American League title.
Much has been written about the Rangers this off season. They didn't get Cliff Lee to stay. They signed Adrian Beltre and then we have all been obsessed with what's going to happen with Michael Young. But the real story for the Texas Rangers is Josh Hamilton, who if he can stay healthy, is the best player in the American League. And the bad news for the rest of the league is that Hamilton, at age 29, should be at the peak of his powers.
Of course, if you are talking about Josh Hamilton and not talking about his drug past, you have to talk about his injuries. People wonder whether Hamilton's past is a part of his injury-riddled present. That seems to be a difficult argument to make. What we do know is that Hamilton has missed significant time in every season except 2008. That season, he drove in 130 runs. And Hamilton is a much better player now than he was in 2008, which was his first full season after breaking in with the Reds the year before.
Instead, Hamilton seems a lot like Larry Walker. Walker, when he was healthy, was simply a brilliant ball player. But his style of play simply led him to miss a boat load of games over the course of his career. Hamilton seems a lot like Walker. Certainly from a talent standpoint, the two are very similar. What the Rangers have to hope for is that Hamilton can play 155 games. Until he can put a couple of those types of seasons together back to back, there will always be a question of injury.
Baseball needs Hamilton to be healthy because he simply can do things others can't. His homer against the Yankees in the ALCS was amazing. He was fooled by the pitch, his front leg and hips were already gone but somehow he got the head of the bat on the ball and hit it out of the park. Josh Hamilton is the best player, with more pure talent than any player this Fan has seen since Barry Bonds.
As Peter Gammons wrote, President Bush said we all love a reclamation project. And as such, Josh Hamilton is our favorite story in baseball. If Jeff Allison can make it to the major leagues, he'll be another favorite. We root for guys who have overcome the depths of despair to succeed using the talent they were born with. Baseball needs Josh Hamilton and it needs him healthy. The Rangers need him that way too. Because if he is healthy, the Rangers are clearly better than anyone else in the American League West.
Much has been written about the Rangers this off season. They didn't get Cliff Lee to stay. They signed Adrian Beltre and then we have all been obsessed with what's going to happen with Michael Young. But the real story for the Texas Rangers is Josh Hamilton, who if he can stay healthy, is the best player in the American League. And the bad news for the rest of the league is that Hamilton, at age 29, should be at the peak of his powers.
Of course, if you are talking about Josh Hamilton and not talking about his drug past, you have to talk about his injuries. People wonder whether Hamilton's past is a part of his injury-riddled present. That seems to be a difficult argument to make. What we do know is that Hamilton has missed significant time in every season except 2008. That season, he drove in 130 runs. And Hamilton is a much better player now than he was in 2008, which was his first full season after breaking in with the Reds the year before.
Instead, Hamilton seems a lot like Larry Walker. Walker, when he was healthy, was simply a brilliant ball player. But his style of play simply led him to miss a boat load of games over the course of his career. Hamilton seems a lot like Walker. Certainly from a talent standpoint, the two are very similar. What the Rangers have to hope for is that Hamilton can play 155 games. Until he can put a couple of those types of seasons together back to back, there will always be a question of injury.
Baseball needs Hamilton to be healthy because he simply can do things others can't. His homer against the Yankees in the ALCS was amazing. He was fooled by the pitch, his front leg and hips were already gone but somehow he got the head of the bat on the ball and hit it out of the park. Josh Hamilton is the best player, with more pure talent than any player this Fan has seen since Barry Bonds.
As Peter Gammons wrote, President Bush said we all love a reclamation project. And as such, Josh Hamilton is our favorite story in baseball. If Jeff Allison can make it to the major leagues, he'll be another favorite. We root for guys who have overcome the depths of despair to succeed using the talent they were born with. Baseball needs Josh Hamilton and it needs him healthy. The Rangers need him that way too. Because if he is healthy, the Rangers are clearly better than anyone else in the American League West.
Monday, February 14, 2011
My Valentine Girl
A long time ago in a place far away, I fell for a cute little blond while in Manchester, New Hampshire. I was totally lost and alone at a (then) small party school for rich kids called New Hampshire College. The cute little blond and I were probably the only non-rich kids in the whole school. The college was relatively new and did not even require SAT scores, hence the dumping ground for all troubled rich kids everywhere. The only reason I was there was because it was the only application I'd completed of the dozens my Sicilian mother had given me in her hopes for the American Dream. Naturally, the school accepted me. So there I was.
The cute little blond was driven to be a good student by an inferiority complex while I cared more about how long I could keep winning to keep the pool table. The drinking age was 18 then and the snack bar served pitchers of beer for next to nothing. Not a good idea in retrospect.
The cute little blond, finished her two year degree in fashion merchandising. That was the stupidest major she could have possibly taken but her father had talked her out of the physical education path she had wanted to pursue. He didn't see the later trend in the booming fitness business. She never used the degree.
I had gotten a job at Radio Shack and was making relatively good money and lost interest in classes. After two and a half year, the college and I were ready to be rid of each other. Instead, I married the cute little blond. Soon after, our son was born.
Our son was perfect in every way. I'd never seen a more perfect looking baby. And he was my buddy. By then I was working the graveyard shift at a tannery in Berwick, Maine and had my days free to do whatever me and my handsome lad wanted to do. We went to the lake together, took walks, played baseball, watched baseball. He came with me to my bowling leagues and would go in the nursery with the other kids. All the babysitters there adored him. So did the waitress, Lisa, at the local Friendlies who always knew exactly what the boy wonder wanted to eat. Truth be told, his dad had as big a crush on Lisa as the boy wonder did.
I love my son more than anything. We had a great childhood together. We went to Disney. We shared baseball. I coached him in Little League. It was wonderful.
But as the years went by, there wasn't another child. I went about my work in the tannery and the cute little blond, who never did work, started her workout career. She eventually came in third in the Miss New Hampshire body-building competition. I won the New Hampshire bowling tournament, but I was far from the cute little blonde's fitness inspiration.
And so it became an unusual household. The boy wonder would bring his friends home, run past Dad and ask Mom to make a muscle. If he needed a jar or bottle open, he asked Mom. The joke became that Mom had the muscles and Dad's biological clock was ticking. I wanted another child. I wanted a girl.
But it didn't happen. The years went by. The cute little blond and I had marital troubles. She was prone to depression and was the analytical, plan-everything type of person. I was the "artist" and the dreamer. During one phase when reconciliation was occurring and the boy wonder was sixteen, that oops moment came and the cute little blond was pregnant. It was probably one of the rare occasions when her body fat was high enough to allow that to happen. Who knows. But at the age of 40, I was going to have another child. The question was, what sex would it be? We refused to find out during the exams by the doctor.
During the pregnancy, all kinds of opinions were offered. She's carrying high or low or something and it's going to be a boy. I held out hope for a girl. I steeled myself for whatever it might be, but I REALLY wanted a girl. This was all happening fifteen years ago.
At last, the cute little blond went into labor. We had moved to northern Maine by then and I took her to the hospital in Caribou. After a lot of fraught moments (the cute little blond was 40 after all), the baby was born...and it was a girl! And she was perfect. Next to her brother, she was the most beautiful baby I had ever seen. And she had full lips! That's an inside joke. I always kidded the cute little blond that she had chicken lips and kissed me like an auntie. We named her Shaina Lise (my ideas both) which to me is the perfect name. And she was born, most fittingly...on Valentine's Day.
She turned fifteen today. She's so far unaffected by the pitfalls of the teen years. She's a good girl. A while ago I told her that I had always wanted a little girl and that she has been everything and more that I ever wanted. She has the good looks of her mother with some of my better features. She's imaginative, ambitious, and unbridled in her outlook on life. Her favorite shirt says, "Today is going to be awesome."
Needless to say, I am as smitten with her as the first time I took her out of the birthing room to show her to her brother. The boy wonder, now a man, hugged me and said, "You have your little girl, Dad." It was a wonderfully touching thing for him to say and I'll never forget it. That was my first real Valentine's Day. There have been fifteen of them since. I will always treasure February 14th because that's the day my little Valentine girl was born.
The cute little blond was driven to be a good student by an inferiority complex while I cared more about how long I could keep winning to keep the pool table. The drinking age was 18 then and the snack bar served pitchers of beer for next to nothing. Not a good idea in retrospect.
The cute little blond, finished her two year degree in fashion merchandising. That was the stupidest major she could have possibly taken but her father had talked her out of the physical education path she had wanted to pursue. He didn't see the later trend in the booming fitness business. She never used the degree.
I had gotten a job at Radio Shack and was making relatively good money and lost interest in classes. After two and a half year, the college and I were ready to be rid of each other. Instead, I married the cute little blond. Soon after, our son was born.
Our son was perfect in every way. I'd never seen a more perfect looking baby. And he was my buddy. By then I was working the graveyard shift at a tannery in Berwick, Maine and had my days free to do whatever me and my handsome lad wanted to do. We went to the lake together, took walks, played baseball, watched baseball. He came with me to my bowling leagues and would go in the nursery with the other kids. All the babysitters there adored him. So did the waitress, Lisa, at the local Friendlies who always knew exactly what the boy wonder wanted to eat. Truth be told, his dad had as big a crush on Lisa as the boy wonder did.
I love my son more than anything. We had a great childhood together. We went to Disney. We shared baseball. I coached him in Little League. It was wonderful.
But as the years went by, there wasn't another child. I went about my work in the tannery and the cute little blond, who never did work, started her workout career. She eventually came in third in the Miss New Hampshire body-building competition. I won the New Hampshire bowling tournament, but I was far from the cute little blonde's fitness inspiration.
And so it became an unusual household. The boy wonder would bring his friends home, run past Dad and ask Mom to make a muscle. If he needed a jar or bottle open, he asked Mom. The joke became that Mom had the muscles and Dad's biological clock was ticking. I wanted another child. I wanted a girl.
But it didn't happen. The years went by. The cute little blond and I had marital troubles. She was prone to depression and was the analytical, plan-everything type of person. I was the "artist" and the dreamer. During one phase when reconciliation was occurring and the boy wonder was sixteen, that oops moment came and the cute little blond was pregnant. It was probably one of the rare occasions when her body fat was high enough to allow that to happen. Who knows. But at the age of 40, I was going to have another child. The question was, what sex would it be? We refused to find out during the exams by the doctor.
During the pregnancy, all kinds of opinions were offered. She's carrying high or low or something and it's going to be a boy. I held out hope for a girl. I steeled myself for whatever it might be, but I REALLY wanted a girl. This was all happening fifteen years ago.
At last, the cute little blond went into labor. We had moved to northern Maine by then and I took her to the hospital in Caribou. After a lot of fraught moments (the cute little blond was 40 after all), the baby was born...and it was a girl! And she was perfect. Next to her brother, she was the most beautiful baby I had ever seen. And she had full lips! That's an inside joke. I always kidded the cute little blond that she had chicken lips and kissed me like an auntie. We named her Shaina Lise (my ideas both) which to me is the perfect name. And she was born, most fittingly...on Valentine's Day.
She turned fifteen today. She's so far unaffected by the pitfalls of the teen years. She's a good girl. A while ago I told her that I had always wanted a little girl and that she has been everything and more that I ever wanted. She has the good looks of her mother with some of my better features. She's imaginative, ambitious, and unbridled in her outlook on life. Her favorite shirt says, "Today is going to be awesome."
Needless to say, I am as smitten with her as the first time I took her out of the birthing room to show her to her brother. The boy wonder, now a man, hugged me and said, "You have your little girl, Dad." It was a wonderfully touching thing for him to say and I'll never forget it. That was my first real Valentine's Day. There have been fifteen of them since. I will always treasure February 14th because that's the day my little Valentine girl was born.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Predicting the Top Seven Catchers of 2011
Much like the shortstop position, there is a bit of a swoon in Major League Baseball when it comes to catchers. You have top of the line guys like Joe Mauer and Brian McCann and then the ranks start thinning out very quickly. And yet even the worst catcher in the majors last year had a positive WAR value simply because of how important the position is the the game. If you really stop and think about it, there never has been any great era for catchers, has there? The top catchers of all time stand out so much because there was so much mediocrity everywhere else. For every Johnny Bench, there was a Rich Gedman. The thing about catching is that there is this tie to the pitching staff that's never really been measured. Rick Dempsey was the Orioles catcher for so many years because his pitchers swore by him. Jason Varitek can say the same thing. Maybe some day there will be this measurement us amateurs can go to that's called a catcher's pitching index or something. But for now, all we have is WAR and at least that component has fielding and hitting built into it's algorithm. Based on those flawed figures, here are the Fan's top catchers for 2011.
Joe Mauer - Of course you have to start with Mauer. He's a batting champion and has that sprawling, heads-up tag he made against the Yankees last year to sink our teeth into. According to Fangraphs, he wasn't the best overall catcher last year. Fangraphs listed Brian McCann ahead of him in WAR. But you can never bet against Mauer retaining the top spot in 2011. The only question from year to year is his health. He hasn't been a rock of health like Ivan Rodriguez over the years. Plus, his defense has been questioned of late. Fangraphs gave him a negative figure last year. That may be due to some of the nagging injuries he played with all year. But again, if you were in a school yard and picking teams, Mauer would be your first pick.
Brian McCann - As mentioned, McCann had the highest WAR of all catchers last year. He's been hailed as an offensive catcher his entire career, but his scored well for his defense last year, which is what pushed him ahead of Mauer. Both Mauer and McCann have been entrenched for years now which is a nice anchor for their pitching staffs. If there was some sort of catching pitching index, McCann would probably score very highly. But what makes McCann so good is his offense. McCann's slash line for the last five years reads: .290/.361/.496. If there wasn't a Joe Mauer, McCann would get a lot more attention. He's one of the best.
Buster Posey - It seems impossible for Buster Posey to have dreamed a better debut season. He came in and along with some improbably contributors, helped the Giants win a World Series. Posey also displayed remarkable dexterity and nimbleness behind the plate that wasn't expected (take heart Montero fans) and scored very well for his defense as well as his offense. The real question for 2011 is whether he can increase his patience when batting. His 6.8 percent walk rate leaves a lot to be desired. Also to be seen is whether NL pitchers make adjustments when facing him and how the young catcher handles those adjustments. But this guy is very, very good and with a bump in all his offensive numbers, could be the top of the class of 2011 catchers. He's that good.
Yadier Molina - The youngest of the Molina brothers turned out to be the best catcher of the bunch. There is no question that he is the best defensive catcher in baseball. Plus, you can't argue with the success he's had catching St. Louis pitching. The only question concerning Molina is his offense, which has hit hard times of late. If he could just hit his slash line of the last five years (.271/.333/.362), then he'll easily be the third best catcher in the game in 2011. But the problem with Molina is that he doesn't walk enough, which when he isn't hitting, can't give him any impact in the line up. Molina doesn't strike out much either. No catcher has struck out less often in the last five years than Molina. But he has to hit better than 2010. The Fan is betting that he will.
Russell Martin - This pick may surprise you. But Martin had, by all accounts, a really bad year last year, which ended abruptly with a bad injury. But even his "bad" abbreviated season garnered him a 2.1 WAR, higher than a lot of starting catchers around the league. Martin will take over for Jorge Posada, who catching days have passed him by. Posada was rated the second worst defensive catcher in 2010 (behind only Doumit). Martin might turn out to be one of the most unheralded improvements any team has made this off season. The Fan believes he will handled the pitching staff better and his defense will certainly be the best the Yankees have had for years. Of course, he has to be healthy to make this prediction work out. But no worries. Even if he can't stay healthy, Jesus Montero is a pretty darned good Plan B.
Carlos Ruiz - The Phillies catcher had a bust out season in 2010. With a slash line of .302/.400/.447 along with solid defense, Ruiz has become the focus of the Phillies and their great run. Plus, he is going to have fun handling what looks to be a great pitching staff. The thing with Ruiz for the Fan is just how much was 2010 a fluke or a progression? He was very good in 2009, but not good like 2010. Even if he slides back a bit, he's a rock for the Phillies and is certainly among the best in baseball. The Fan isn't sure he shouldn't be rated higher. If Martin rounds back to his old form, he's the better catcher. But if not, Ruiz is better than the 2009 and 2010 versions of Martin.
Geovany Soto - Would you have guessed that among all MLB catchers, Soto had the highest walk percentage in 2010? This Fan wouldn't have. Soto's season was hidden by the Cubs falling out of the race so fast last year. But he had a great offensive season. The difficulty with Soto is that he doesn't rate out well as a defensive catcher. Soto rates as one of the poorer defensive catchers in the game. But, darn, he is a good offensive catcher with a high OBP (obviously), a solid .280 batting average that can improve and good power (.497 slugging percentage in 2010). Now he just has to get better with the mask on.
Joe Mauer - Of course you have to start with Mauer. He's a batting champion and has that sprawling, heads-up tag he made against the Yankees last year to sink our teeth into. According to Fangraphs, he wasn't the best overall catcher last year. Fangraphs listed Brian McCann ahead of him in WAR. But you can never bet against Mauer retaining the top spot in 2011. The only question from year to year is his health. He hasn't been a rock of health like Ivan Rodriguez over the years. Plus, his defense has been questioned of late. Fangraphs gave him a negative figure last year. That may be due to some of the nagging injuries he played with all year. But again, if you were in a school yard and picking teams, Mauer would be your first pick.
Brian McCann - As mentioned, McCann had the highest WAR of all catchers last year. He's been hailed as an offensive catcher his entire career, but his scored well for his defense last year, which is what pushed him ahead of Mauer. Both Mauer and McCann have been entrenched for years now which is a nice anchor for their pitching staffs. If there was some sort of catching pitching index, McCann would probably score very highly. But what makes McCann so good is his offense. McCann's slash line for the last five years reads: .290/.361/.496. If there wasn't a Joe Mauer, McCann would get a lot more attention. He's one of the best.
Buster Posey - It seems impossible for Buster Posey to have dreamed a better debut season. He came in and along with some improbably contributors, helped the Giants win a World Series. Posey also displayed remarkable dexterity and nimbleness behind the plate that wasn't expected (take heart Montero fans) and scored very well for his defense as well as his offense. The real question for 2011 is whether he can increase his patience when batting. His 6.8 percent walk rate leaves a lot to be desired. Also to be seen is whether NL pitchers make adjustments when facing him and how the young catcher handles those adjustments. But this guy is very, very good and with a bump in all his offensive numbers, could be the top of the class of 2011 catchers. He's that good.
Yadier Molina - The youngest of the Molina brothers turned out to be the best catcher of the bunch. There is no question that he is the best defensive catcher in baseball. Plus, you can't argue with the success he's had catching St. Louis pitching. The only question concerning Molina is his offense, which has hit hard times of late. If he could just hit his slash line of the last five years (.271/.333/.362), then he'll easily be the third best catcher in the game in 2011. But the problem with Molina is that he doesn't walk enough, which when he isn't hitting, can't give him any impact in the line up. Molina doesn't strike out much either. No catcher has struck out less often in the last five years than Molina. But he has to hit better than 2010. The Fan is betting that he will.
Russell Martin - This pick may surprise you. But Martin had, by all accounts, a really bad year last year, which ended abruptly with a bad injury. But even his "bad" abbreviated season garnered him a 2.1 WAR, higher than a lot of starting catchers around the league. Martin will take over for Jorge Posada, who catching days have passed him by. Posada was rated the second worst defensive catcher in 2010 (behind only Doumit). Martin might turn out to be one of the most unheralded improvements any team has made this off season. The Fan believes he will handled the pitching staff better and his defense will certainly be the best the Yankees have had for years. Of course, he has to be healthy to make this prediction work out. But no worries. Even if he can't stay healthy, Jesus Montero is a pretty darned good Plan B.
Carlos Ruiz - The Phillies catcher had a bust out season in 2010. With a slash line of .302/.400/.447 along with solid defense, Ruiz has become the focus of the Phillies and their great run. Plus, he is going to have fun handling what looks to be a great pitching staff. The thing with Ruiz for the Fan is just how much was 2010 a fluke or a progression? He was very good in 2009, but not good like 2010. Even if he slides back a bit, he's a rock for the Phillies and is certainly among the best in baseball. The Fan isn't sure he shouldn't be rated higher. If Martin rounds back to his old form, he's the better catcher. But if not, Ruiz is better than the 2009 and 2010 versions of Martin.
Geovany Soto - Would you have guessed that among all MLB catchers, Soto had the highest walk percentage in 2010? This Fan wouldn't have. Soto's season was hidden by the Cubs falling out of the race so fast last year. But he had a great offensive season. The difficulty with Soto is that he doesn't rate out well as a defensive catcher. Soto rates as one of the poorer defensive catchers in the game. But, darn, he is a good offensive catcher with a high OBP (obviously), a solid .280 batting average that can improve and good power (.497 slugging percentage in 2010). Now he just has to get better with the mask on.
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