There were some questions about how Joe Mauer would fare after a long layoff with a back problem that seriously seemed to threaten his career. He missed the whole month of April and has been this big question mark for the Twins all season. Mauer came of the Disabled List yesterday and played in his first game last night.
Mauer got a standing ovation from the Twins' fans who also had to be thinking how their All-Star catcher would do. They soon got their answer as Mauer drove a fastball the opposite way and into the seats in left field. He eventually wound up 2-3 with a walk.
Obviously, one game isn't going to erase the question mark, but it sure did make the Twins feel better about themselves and their chances.
Welcome back, Joe Mauer. We missed you.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Longoria and Pena - Best One-Two Punch in Baseball?
The Bay Rays found what they needed to turn their season around: Play the Red Sox! The team from Tampa just seems to triumph against the mighty Sox, especially at home. The game again featured a one-two punch from Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, who might be, at this point, be the best three-four combination in baseball.
Evan Longoria hit a grand slam and now has seven homers and 28 RBI in just 24 games and is batting .368. His OPS is a ridiculous 1.148. We are watching a superstar develop with this guy who is clearly comfortable in his MLB skin in just his second year. Plus, he has cut back on his strikeouts and is hitting the ball much more consistently. He already has 11 doubles to go along with his homers.
Carlos Pena, meanwhile, has already hit 10 homers in his cleanup position and has knocked in 25 in just those 24 games. He doesn't get the bat on the ball as consistently as Longoria, but when he does hit it, the ball goes a long way. He only has a .256 Batting Average, but his OPS is sitting at .981.
The Bay Rays have a tough stretch of games against the Red Sox and Yankees, but they have started off the stretch, 2-0 and riding off their three-four monsters in the batting order, the AL East is getting interesting.
Evan Longoria hit a grand slam and now has seven homers and 28 RBI in just 24 games and is batting .368. His OPS is a ridiculous 1.148. We are watching a superstar develop with this guy who is clearly comfortable in his MLB skin in just his second year. Plus, he has cut back on his strikeouts and is hitting the ball much more consistently. He already has 11 doubles to go along with his homers.
Carlos Pena, meanwhile, has already hit 10 homers in his cleanup position and has knocked in 25 in just those 24 games. He doesn't get the bat on the ball as consistently as Longoria, but when he does hit it, the ball goes a long way. He only has a .256 Batting Average, but his OPS is sitting at .981.
The Bay Rays have a tough stretch of games against the Red Sox and Yankees, but they have started off the stretch, 2-0 and riding off their three-four monsters in the batting order, the AL East is getting interesting.
More Guys that Should Retire
Yesterday in the FanDome, we started talking about players who somehow still have a job in the major leagues despite not having any business still getting a paycheck. The old Fan got sleepy and didn't really complete the list. Here is the rest of it.
- Greg Zaun: How fortunate was Zaun that the Orioles wanted to scrimp a few bucks by starting Matt Wieters in the minors? The Orioles, of course, made the move to gain a year more of Wieter's services before he can go to arbitration and later, free agency. The Fan railed about it at the time and is still steamed. Zaun? The 38 year-old catcher has an OPS+ right now of 11. That's right, 11. Zaun should walk away as soon as June rolls around and Wieters comes to Baltimore. It's a good thing the Orioles were so conscious of their attendance in this recession and allowed their fans to see a creaky, ancient catcher put together six hits in fifty-four At Bats with only one RBI. Yup. Did the Fan mention that he has only thrown out four base runners out of twenty? Oh nevermind.
- Tony Graffanino: The last time the Indians' infielder played in the majors was 2007 and that year, Graffanino batted .238. It's now two years later and he is two years older and somebody thought this was a good idea? His current OPS+ isn't even a plus, but a -12. The Fan has never seen a minus before on OPS+. But that's what happens when someone goes 3 for 23.
- Alan Embree: Yeah, yeah, he's a LOOGY. But he isn't a particularly good one. And he's 39. Last year, his ERA (4.96) was a full run higher than the year before. So far this year, his ERA is 6.00. Last year, at least he struck out 57 batters in 60 innings. So far this year, he's struck out one in six innings. He isn't fooling anyone.
- Darin Erstad: Erstad isn't that old, but he is the older version of Byrnes. He crashed one too many walls when he was young. So far this year, he has nine strikeouts and only four hits in 23 At Bats. His OPS+ won't stay at 1 like is now (1??) but his average OPS+ the last three years is 64, so it's not like it's going to be pretty some day.
- Doug Brocail and Brian Moehler: Erstad isn't the only one on the Astros that should call it a career. Brocail has given up 12 base runners in 4.1 innings. Eight of those were walks. Brocail is 42 years old and NOT a LOOGY. Moehler has Wang-like numbers. The 37 year-old is 0-2 and has given up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in 4.1 innings. Wow! Hey Moe! Time to go!
You know, this is a thought process that is very draining. All these negative numbers sap a normally upbeat writer. Let's leave it here for now and try to finish it up tomorrow. Ugh. There has to be something FUN to write about.
- Greg Zaun: How fortunate was Zaun that the Orioles wanted to scrimp a few bucks by starting Matt Wieters in the minors? The Orioles, of course, made the move to gain a year more of Wieter's services before he can go to arbitration and later, free agency. The Fan railed about it at the time and is still steamed. Zaun? The 38 year-old catcher has an OPS+ right now of 11. That's right, 11. Zaun should walk away as soon as June rolls around and Wieters comes to Baltimore. It's a good thing the Orioles were so conscious of their attendance in this recession and allowed their fans to see a creaky, ancient catcher put together six hits in fifty-four At Bats with only one RBI. Yup. Did the Fan mention that he has only thrown out four base runners out of twenty? Oh nevermind.
- Tony Graffanino: The last time the Indians' infielder played in the majors was 2007 and that year, Graffanino batted .238. It's now two years later and he is two years older and somebody thought this was a good idea? His current OPS+ isn't even a plus, but a -12. The Fan has never seen a minus before on OPS+. But that's what happens when someone goes 3 for 23.
- Alan Embree: Yeah, yeah, he's a LOOGY. But he isn't a particularly good one. And he's 39. Last year, his ERA (4.96) was a full run higher than the year before. So far this year, his ERA is 6.00. Last year, at least he struck out 57 batters in 60 innings. So far this year, he's struck out one in six innings. He isn't fooling anyone.
- Darin Erstad: Erstad isn't that old, but he is the older version of Byrnes. He crashed one too many walls when he was young. So far this year, he has nine strikeouts and only four hits in 23 At Bats. His OPS+ won't stay at 1 like is now (1??) but his average OPS+ the last three years is 64, so it's not like it's going to be pretty some day.
- Doug Brocail and Brian Moehler: Erstad isn't the only one on the Astros that should call it a career. Brocail has given up 12 base runners in 4.1 innings. Eight of those were walks. Brocail is 42 years old and NOT a LOOGY. Moehler has Wang-like numbers. The 37 year-old is 0-2 and has given up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in 4.1 innings. Wow! Hey Moe! Time to go!
You know, this is a thought process that is very draining. All these negative numbers sap a normally upbeat writer. Let's leave it here for now and try to finish it up tomorrow. Ugh. There has to be something FUN to write about.
Friday, May 01, 2009
Some Players That Should Retire
The 2009 MLB off season was a strange one and a lot of players had a hard time finding jobs (at least for the kind of money they expected). But some others did find jobs that shouldn't have and are still working for clubs and shouldn't be. Here are just a few:
- Tom Gordon: Gordon is now 42 and is in his 21st season. A 42 year-old reliever that is not a LOOGY is not a good idea. He blew the game for Arizona last night. This follows the last two seasons when his ERA was 4.72 (2007) and 5.16 (2008). Enough is enough, Flash.
- Gary Sheffield: He got his 500th home run. Now it's time to go into that good night. A .725 OPS last year and is currently sitting at .691 this year should be enough to indicate that he is done as a player. It's time for him to swagger on out of there.
- Guillermo Mota: Now 35, or as close to 35 as anyone originally from the Dominican Republic can be, Mota had a decent season for Milwaukee last year, but has given up 15 base runners already in seven innings this year. Why is this Mota still running?
- Tony Clark: Everyone loves Tony Clark. He's a great clubhouse guy, but he's now 36 and batting .160. It's time to start your coaching career, Tony.
- Eric Byrnes: Now 33, he is giving every indication that he is Byrned out. He hit .209 last year and is sitting at .176 this year. Looks like he hit one wall too many.
- Garrett Anderson: Guess it seemed like a good idea to the Braves. But he is batting .200 with no homers and only three doubles. Here's an idea. How about you and Greg Norman both tell the Braves that it was fun, but thanks anyway.
- Jose Contreras: Now 37 years old (Best we can tell anyway), Contreras is now 0-3 with a WHIP of 1.72. Enough said. He's done.
More tomorrow.
- Tom Gordon: Gordon is now 42 and is in his 21st season. A 42 year-old reliever that is not a LOOGY is not a good idea. He blew the game for Arizona last night. This follows the last two seasons when his ERA was 4.72 (2007) and 5.16 (2008). Enough is enough, Flash.
- Gary Sheffield: He got his 500th home run. Now it's time to go into that good night. A .725 OPS last year and is currently sitting at .691 this year should be enough to indicate that he is done as a player. It's time for him to swagger on out of there.
- Guillermo Mota: Now 35, or as close to 35 as anyone originally from the Dominican Republic can be, Mota had a decent season for Milwaukee last year, but has given up 15 base runners already in seven innings this year. Why is this Mota still running?
- Tony Clark: Everyone loves Tony Clark. He's a great clubhouse guy, but he's now 36 and batting .160. It's time to start your coaching career, Tony.
- Eric Byrnes: Now 33, he is giving every indication that he is Byrned out. He hit .209 last year and is sitting at .176 this year. Looks like he hit one wall too many.
- Garrett Anderson: Guess it seemed like a good idea to the Braves. But he is batting .200 with no homers and only three doubles. Here's an idea. How about you and Greg Norman both tell the Braves that it was fun, but thanks anyway.
- Jose Contreras: Now 37 years old (Best we can tell anyway), Contreras is now 0-3 with a WHIP of 1.72. Enough said. He's done.
More tomorrow.
Nobody Will Catch the Dodgers
One thing seems evident at the end of April: The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to win the National League West. They have the second best record in the National League and play in a weak division where no other team seems capable of putting together an 85 win season. The Dodgers seem well-rounded and have a manager that will keep them relaxed and sure of what their roles will be. Need a few more reasons? Let's take a look.
Solid Lineup
The Dodgers' lineup is solid from first to eight. Furcal is off to a slow start, but he will get back to his career averages at least before the season is out. His double play partner, Orlando Hudson is a solid, league average hitter. Loney is solid. Casey Blake is an upgrade from Blake DeWitt. Manny is Manny and takes all the pressure off of all the other hitters and seems to be in an unbelievable zone since he got to LA. Matt Kemp has a .977 OPS and seems to be filling into the kind of hitter that was predicted for him. And Andre Ethier is also blossoming as a hitter and leads the team in RBI and batting behind Manny is going to keep him there. Russell Martin is off to a slow start, but as long as it's not health related, then he should get back to his career average of .280 by season's end.
Solid Bench
Juan Pierre should never again be a starter, but he is solid as a backup (even if he is going to pout a bit). Brad Ausmus seems to be enjoying his backup status in LA and is following a great spring with a great April in limited duty. Mark Loretta and Doug Mienkiewicz (who has the single hardest name to spell in the majors) are solid. DeWitt might be a liability as is Juan Castro, but that's hardly game changing.
Solid Starting Pitching
Chad Billingsley is an ace in all senses of the word. He is now 39-19 in his young career with a 3.25 ERA. Each year, his Walks per 9 innings decreases and he keeps the ball in the yard with a high strikeout rate. He's already 4-0 this year. Randy Wolf is solid, if unspectacular. He'll keep you in the game for six innings, doesn't walk many and is a fighter. Clayton Kershaw is scary talented. He's off to a rough start, but if he can find the plate a bit more consistently, he'll be as good as Billingsley. And he is only 20 years old. Eric Stults and John McDonald are question marks. They are both inexperienced and are walking too many batters. But heck, the Dodgers have the resources to go out and get somebody if they need to. Pedro Martinez comes to mind.
Great Closer
Joe Torre, more than any other manager, relies heavily on his closer and Jonathan Broxton has come in to his own in that capacity. He has been dominating this season with 16 strikeouts in 10 innings and has already won two games and saved six others. His current ERA is 0.90.
The Bullpen
The rest of the bullpen is kind of iffy. Ronald Belisario has been decent. Will Ohman is solid and Ramon Troncoso has had a good start. Kuo is reliable, but the rest have been pretty bad. Guillermo Mota is nearly eighty years old and should be cut.
Manager and Coaching Staff
Larry Bowa is one of the best coaches in baseball. Mattingly is respected and his players are responding to him as batting coach. Rick Honeycutt is smart and prepared and will get the most out of his pitching staff. Mariano Duncan has followed Torre from New York. And Joe Torre is Joe Torre. One of the best.
The Dodgers have a few weaknesses and will have a bad stretch or two. But overall, the team is as solid as any in the National League and certainly much more talented than any other rival in their division.
Solid Lineup
The Dodgers' lineup is solid from first to eight. Furcal is off to a slow start, but he will get back to his career averages at least before the season is out. His double play partner, Orlando Hudson is a solid, league average hitter. Loney is solid. Casey Blake is an upgrade from Blake DeWitt. Manny is Manny and takes all the pressure off of all the other hitters and seems to be in an unbelievable zone since he got to LA. Matt Kemp has a .977 OPS and seems to be filling into the kind of hitter that was predicted for him. And Andre Ethier is also blossoming as a hitter and leads the team in RBI and batting behind Manny is going to keep him there. Russell Martin is off to a slow start, but as long as it's not health related, then he should get back to his career average of .280 by season's end.
Solid Bench
Juan Pierre should never again be a starter, but he is solid as a backup (even if he is going to pout a bit). Brad Ausmus seems to be enjoying his backup status in LA and is following a great spring with a great April in limited duty. Mark Loretta and Doug Mienkiewicz (who has the single hardest name to spell in the majors) are solid. DeWitt might be a liability as is Juan Castro, but that's hardly game changing.
Solid Starting Pitching
Chad Billingsley is an ace in all senses of the word. He is now 39-19 in his young career with a 3.25 ERA. Each year, his Walks per 9 innings decreases and he keeps the ball in the yard with a high strikeout rate. He's already 4-0 this year. Randy Wolf is solid, if unspectacular. He'll keep you in the game for six innings, doesn't walk many and is a fighter. Clayton Kershaw is scary talented. He's off to a rough start, but if he can find the plate a bit more consistently, he'll be as good as Billingsley. And he is only 20 years old. Eric Stults and John McDonald are question marks. They are both inexperienced and are walking too many batters. But heck, the Dodgers have the resources to go out and get somebody if they need to. Pedro Martinez comes to mind.
Great Closer
Joe Torre, more than any other manager, relies heavily on his closer and Jonathan Broxton has come in to his own in that capacity. He has been dominating this season with 16 strikeouts in 10 innings and has already won two games and saved six others. His current ERA is 0.90.
The Bullpen
The rest of the bullpen is kind of iffy. Ronald Belisario has been decent. Will Ohman is solid and Ramon Troncoso has had a good start. Kuo is reliable, but the rest have been pretty bad. Guillermo Mota is nearly eighty years old and should be cut.
Manager and Coaching Staff
Larry Bowa is one of the best coaches in baseball. Mattingly is respected and his players are responding to him as batting coach. Rick Honeycutt is smart and prepared and will get the most out of his pitching staff. Mariano Duncan has followed Torre from New York. And Joe Torre is Joe Torre. One of the best.
The Dodgers have a few weaknesses and will have a bad stretch or two. But overall, the team is as solid as any in the National League and certainly much more talented than any other rival in their division.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Here Come the Twins!
When the Twins traded Johan Santana last year, they were given up for dead. And yet, despite an uncharacteristically porous defense and some clunkers on the pitching staff (Boof, Livan and Everyday Eddie), finished in second place with 88 wins. Their final record was pretty much the same as it was the year before. This year, they faced a start of the season with Joe Mauer on the disabled list and they had a terrible start. Again, they were given up for dead. But now the Twins have won seven of eleven and they are right in the thick of the scrum near the top of the AL Central. And Mauer is on his way back.
In the first eleven games of the season, the Twins' run differential was -30. Ouch. But in the last eleven, they've been much better at +8. So their overall differential of -22 is misleading. The biggest difference so far has been the defense. Last year, the Twins made 108 errors in 162 games. So far this year, they have only made 8 in 22 games. That's a vast improvement over a year ago. And astoundingly, the standard infield set of Crede (0), Punto (1) and Alexi Casilla (1) have only made two errors between them.
Jose Morales, who is filling in for Redmond, who was filling in for Mauer, has been a surprise thus far and has Mauer-like production. His current OPS+ is 132, which is excellent.
At least half of the team has struggled offensively. That same infield trio that is doing so well in the field is wasting away at the plate in an an astounding way. The OPS+ numbers of the trio? Casilla (29), Punto (63) and Crede (89). 29! You have to be nearly comatose to have that low a number. Crede's 89 is actually not bad for him, but he had a hot start and has faded of late. Brenden Harris has played in half of the Twins' games and has filled in for the light hitting crew at all three positions and is hitting .350. So that helps. It also helps that he hasn't made any errors either.
All of the offense has been supplied thus far by Morales, Harris, Morneau, Span and a surprising Jason Kubel, who has an OPS+ thus far of 148. That's fantastic. But those guys need to get some help from the rest of the outfielders and the infielders.
Ron Gardenshire got in hot water over the winter by stating that his outfield was set with Span, Cuddeyer and Carlos Gomez. The obvious omission was Delmon Young. Gardenshire later backtracked and stated that all four outfielders would get plenty of At Bats. Span has been great, but Gomez, Cuddeyer and Young are all struggling mightily. The trio has OPS+ numbers of 47, 65 and 71 respectively (before Wednesday night's game) and all have an OBP under .300. What looked like a strength has been a real weakness so far.
The return of Mauer will be a boost, but with the offense Morales has been providing, it won't be that much of a boost except that Mauer is a known entity. The team will go as far as their pitching can take them. Their team pitching stats are in the bottom third of the American League thus far and their 5.37 is not a pleasant sight. But they have only had three poorly pitched games out of the last eleven and all of their starters are intriguing.
Scott Baker had a really good year last year, but this year has been more like "Home Run" Baker as he has given up seven homers already in 21 innings. And his 9.82 ERA is rather ugly. But some of his stats seem to indicate he will be okay. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3 to 1. And his stikeouts per nine innings of 7.4 is exactly the same as last year. Those numbers seem to favor him bouncing back and being okay the rest of the season.
Glen Perkins has pitched really well and is a hard-luck 1-2 despite a 2.48 ERA. His WHIP is 1 even and he hasn't given up a homer in four starts. He also has better than a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. He looks great so far. Nick Blackburn pitched well Wednesday night and upped his record to 2-1. His appearance will push his ERA+ over 100.
Kevin Slowey has some funky numbers but has been great his last two starts. The number that jumps out immediately is that he has given up 36 hits in only 26+ innings of work. But he has 19 strikeouts in those 26+ innings and incredibly, has only walked two batters all season. If he keeps pitching like he has the last two outings, he'll be great.
The puzzling pitcher on the staff is Francisco Liriano. He's not the dominating pitcher he was two years ago and he is currently 0-4 with a 6.04 ERA. But his numbers aren't terrible except that his walks are high at 3.5 per nine innings. He's not as bad as his numbers indicate but he's not going to be great like he once may have been.
But overall, a rotation of Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins and Baker can be very competitive. The bullpen, on the other hand has been pretty bad with the exception of Nathan at the end. He is his usual dominant self. But he isn't getting much help out there. In limited action, Jose Mijares has been dominating and might make a nice 1-2 punch with Nathan.
After mulling over the above information, the Twins are a pretty good bet to be in the mix of things in the AL Central. They pitch well and field well and have a few hitting stars. They need more offense from their infield and from three quarters of their outfield, but if that picks up, this could be a fun team to watch all summer.
In the first eleven games of the season, the Twins' run differential was -30. Ouch. But in the last eleven, they've been much better at +8. So their overall differential of -22 is misleading. The biggest difference so far has been the defense. Last year, the Twins made 108 errors in 162 games. So far this year, they have only made 8 in 22 games. That's a vast improvement over a year ago. And astoundingly, the standard infield set of Crede (0), Punto (1) and Alexi Casilla (1) have only made two errors between them.
Jose Morales, who is filling in for Redmond, who was filling in for Mauer, has been a surprise thus far and has Mauer-like production. His current OPS+ is 132, which is excellent.
At least half of the team has struggled offensively. That same infield trio that is doing so well in the field is wasting away at the plate in an an astounding way. The OPS+ numbers of the trio? Casilla (29), Punto (63) and Crede (89). 29! You have to be nearly comatose to have that low a number. Crede's 89 is actually not bad for him, but he had a hot start and has faded of late. Brenden Harris has played in half of the Twins' games and has filled in for the light hitting crew at all three positions and is hitting .350. So that helps. It also helps that he hasn't made any errors either.
All of the offense has been supplied thus far by Morales, Harris, Morneau, Span and a surprising Jason Kubel, who has an OPS+ thus far of 148. That's fantastic. But those guys need to get some help from the rest of the outfielders and the infielders.
Ron Gardenshire got in hot water over the winter by stating that his outfield was set with Span, Cuddeyer and Carlos Gomez. The obvious omission was Delmon Young. Gardenshire later backtracked and stated that all four outfielders would get plenty of At Bats. Span has been great, but Gomez, Cuddeyer and Young are all struggling mightily. The trio has OPS+ numbers of 47, 65 and 71 respectively (before Wednesday night's game) and all have an OBP under .300. What looked like a strength has been a real weakness so far.
The return of Mauer will be a boost, but with the offense Morales has been providing, it won't be that much of a boost except that Mauer is a known entity. The team will go as far as their pitching can take them. Their team pitching stats are in the bottom third of the American League thus far and their 5.37 is not a pleasant sight. But they have only had three poorly pitched games out of the last eleven and all of their starters are intriguing.
Scott Baker had a really good year last year, but this year has been more like "Home Run" Baker as he has given up seven homers already in 21 innings. And his 9.82 ERA is rather ugly. But some of his stats seem to indicate he will be okay. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3 to 1. And his stikeouts per nine innings of 7.4 is exactly the same as last year. Those numbers seem to favor him bouncing back and being okay the rest of the season.
Glen Perkins has pitched really well and is a hard-luck 1-2 despite a 2.48 ERA. His WHIP is 1 even and he hasn't given up a homer in four starts. He also has better than a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. He looks great so far. Nick Blackburn pitched well Wednesday night and upped his record to 2-1. His appearance will push his ERA+ over 100.
Kevin Slowey has some funky numbers but has been great his last two starts. The number that jumps out immediately is that he has given up 36 hits in only 26+ innings of work. But he has 19 strikeouts in those 26+ innings and incredibly, has only walked two batters all season. If he keeps pitching like he has the last two outings, he'll be great.
The puzzling pitcher on the staff is Francisco Liriano. He's not the dominating pitcher he was two years ago and he is currently 0-4 with a 6.04 ERA. But his numbers aren't terrible except that his walks are high at 3.5 per nine innings. He's not as bad as his numbers indicate but he's not going to be great like he once may have been.
But overall, a rotation of Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins and Baker can be very competitive. The bullpen, on the other hand has been pretty bad with the exception of Nathan at the end. He is his usual dominant self. But he isn't getting much help out there. In limited action, Jose Mijares has been dominating and might make a nice 1-2 punch with Nathan.
After mulling over the above information, the Twins are a pretty good bet to be in the mix of things in the AL Central. They pitch well and field well and have a few hitting stars. They need more offense from their infield and from three quarters of their outfield, but if that picks up, this could be a fun team to watch all summer.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Curious Case of Julio Lugo
It seems hard to account for the Boston Red Sox and their love affair with Julio Lugo. Coming off the disabled list last night, he was immediately plugged back into the lineup and though he contributed with the bat, made an error in his first game back. That now gives the shortstop 17 errors in his last 82 games.
Granted, Nick Green's lifetime stats don't give much indication that he's a better player. But he was having a pretty good season and the Sox had a ten game winning streak with him in there. Why mess with that? It's also granted that Nick Green isn't a permanent solution. But Lugo is a worse solution at this point in his career.
Now 33 years old, Lugo has not had an impressive last three years in the field. His fielding percentage compared to league average looks like this the last three years: 2006 - .954/.971, 2007 - .968/.970, 2008 - .945/.972. But we all now know that fielding percentage does not tell the full story. Though Lugo's career Range Factor is above league average, he has not come close to the league average for the past two years. Here is a breakdown: 2007 - 4.21/4.27, 2007 - 3.70/4.39. That's an alarming decline.
In one more fielding statistic, there is a stat called Total Fielding Runs Above Average. In this measure, zero (0) is neutral. Lugo's measure for the last three years: -7.9, -0.4 and -7.0. By the way, all three of the fielding measures the Fan has indicated Lugo rated below Derek Jeter (who has become the supposed standard for the worst fielding shortstop in the majors) last year.
The Red Sox value defense and it is to be sure that their top line statistical analysts must be aware of these numbers. At this point, Green is performing better. But if anyone was available who could play the position better, the Red Sox should make a move.
Granted, Nick Green's lifetime stats don't give much indication that he's a better player. But he was having a pretty good season and the Sox had a ten game winning streak with him in there. Why mess with that? It's also granted that Nick Green isn't a permanent solution. But Lugo is a worse solution at this point in his career.
Now 33 years old, Lugo has not had an impressive last three years in the field. His fielding percentage compared to league average looks like this the last three years: 2006 - .954/.971, 2007 - .968/.970, 2008 - .945/.972. But we all now know that fielding percentage does not tell the full story. Though Lugo's career Range Factor is above league average, he has not come close to the league average for the past two years. Here is a breakdown: 2007 - 4.21/4.27, 2007 - 3.70/4.39. That's an alarming decline.
In one more fielding statistic, there is a stat called Total Fielding Runs Above Average. In this measure, zero (0) is neutral. Lugo's measure for the last three years: -7.9, -0.4 and -7.0. By the way, all three of the fielding measures the Fan has indicated Lugo rated below Derek Jeter (who has become the supposed standard for the worst fielding shortstop in the majors) last year.
The Red Sox value defense and it is to be sure that their top line statistical analysts must be aware of these numbers. At this point, Green is performing better. But if anyone was available who could play the position better, the Red Sox should make a move.
Phil Hughes Brilliant in First Start for the Yankees
The Fan is sitting on the middle of a teeter-totter in how to approach this post concerning Phil Hughes' great first start of the 2009 season. The post hinges on a post written when Phil Hughes was sent down near the end of Spring Training. You may want to read that first. The teetering is this: Either the Fan was brilliant and correct in stating that Hughes should have started the season in the rotation or the Yankees were brilliant in sending him down for three confidence-boosting starts in AAA before his first start of the 2009 season. Hmm... It could go either way, couldn't it?
See, that's the weakness of the blogger. We who write on the sidelines don't know what's going on inside the head of a young player like Phil Hughes. We don't have access to the kid where he can be asked: "So Phil, did you need the three games in AAA to boost your confidence and was that the key to you first start this year in the bigs?"
Of course, Hughes seems like a nice kid and would probably answer: "Well, it's hard to say. The manager and General Manager here are great people with a lot of knowledge. I felt like I pitched great in the winter league and carried that over into Spring Training. But it has all worked out great and I look forward to contributing to the Yankees in any way I can." Which of course would tell you nothing anyway.
The game and covering the game has become (even in this space) about looking at numbers and projections and what the data is saying. One of the reasons that is comforting is that it's all there in front of you for analysis. When a blogger or any professional writer, for that matter, starts to speculate about what goes on in the head of a young player, things get a little dicey.
The dicey part is making a statement such as: "Well, too much pressure was put on Hughes last year when the Yankees didn't make the Santana trade. He started poorly and lost his confidence." Do we know that? Maybe he wasn't fully healthy. Maybe his mechanics were messed up. Maybe it doesn't have anything to do with confidence. All we know are the facts that show that he was great in 2007 until he hurt his leg and was pretty good after he came back from that injury. Then last year, he started really poorly, never won a game all year long and looked terrible.
The Fan is going to take the low road here and push the playground equipment towards the side of sticking with the original post. Hughes should have started the season in the rotation, perhaps even ahead of Chamberlain, based simply on his success in the winter league and in his stellar Spring Training. In the Fan's mind, he out pitched Chamberlain in Spring Training and should have won the fifth spot. Those three wins in AAA could have been in the bigs and the Yankees surely could have used them the way things started this season.
The job should always go to the person who is performing better. Right? Doesn't that make sense? Isn't that why Melky Cabrera started tonight instead of Gardner because right now, he is hitting better than Gardner?
We can speculate all we want about Phil Hughes' mental state coming into the season. He was writing a blog, but hasn't posted in over a year there, so no help there. But whatever is stated concerning that subject is slippery. Winter league results and Spring Training results showed a pretty darn good and confident pitcher.
So the original post stands. That is unless Hughes is quoted stating differently, and if that happens, then the Yankees were brilliant and the Fan is a dope. Or, it was just one start and Hughes could be terrible the rest of the year and we're all dopes. That's life.
See, that's the weakness of the blogger. We who write on the sidelines don't know what's going on inside the head of a young player like Phil Hughes. We don't have access to the kid where he can be asked: "So Phil, did you need the three games in AAA to boost your confidence and was that the key to you first start this year in the bigs?"
Of course, Hughes seems like a nice kid and would probably answer: "Well, it's hard to say. The manager and General Manager here are great people with a lot of knowledge. I felt like I pitched great in the winter league and carried that over into Spring Training. But it has all worked out great and I look forward to contributing to the Yankees in any way I can." Which of course would tell you nothing anyway.
The game and covering the game has become (even in this space) about looking at numbers and projections and what the data is saying. One of the reasons that is comforting is that it's all there in front of you for analysis. When a blogger or any professional writer, for that matter, starts to speculate about what goes on in the head of a young player, things get a little dicey.
The dicey part is making a statement such as: "Well, too much pressure was put on Hughes last year when the Yankees didn't make the Santana trade. He started poorly and lost his confidence." Do we know that? Maybe he wasn't fully healthy. Maybe his mechanics were messed up. Maybe it doesn't have anything to do with confidence. All we know are the facts that show that he was great in 2007 until he hurt his leg and was pretty good after he came back from that injury. Then last year, he started really poorly, never won a game all year long and looked terrible.
The Fan is going to take the low road here and push the playground equipment towards the side of sticking with the original post. Hughes should have started the season in the rotation, perhaps even ahead of Chamberlain, based simply on his success in the winter league and in his stellar Spring Training. In the Fan's mind, he out pitched Chamberlain in Spring Training and should have won the fifth spot. Those three wins in AAA could have been in the bigs and the Yankees surely could have used them the way things started this season.
The job should always go to the person who is performing better. Right? Doesn't that make sense? Isn't that why Melky Cabrera started tonight instead of Gardner because right now, he is hitting better than Gardner?
We can speculate all we want about Phil Hughes' mental state coming into the season. He was writing a blog, but hasn't posted in over a year there, so no help there. But whatever is stated concerning that subject is slippery. Winter league results and Spring Training results showed a pretty darn good and confident pitcher.
So the original post stands. That is unless Hughes is quoted stating differently, and if that happens, then the Yankees were brilliant and the Fan is a dope. Or, it was just one start and Hughes could be terrible the rest of the year and we're all dopes. That's life.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
How are the Phillies Like a Basketball Game?
The old saying goes that the only important part of a basketball game is the last three minutes. The start of the game is just filler until the game goes into overdrive in a final flurry. The Phillies are Major League Baseball's equivalent as it doesn't matter what happens in the early innings. Just tune in to the last three innings. And doesn't it seem that it's been this way for the Phillies for the last three years?
So far this season, seven of their ten wins have occurred from the seventh inning on. Six of those were come from behind wins. And they have done it all different ways with walks, singles, stolen bases and of course, home runs. Let's recap those seven games:
- April 8, 2009: Victims - Braves. The Phillies had lost their first two games of the season and were headed to a third and were down 10-3 going into the seventh inning. They scored eight runs in the seventh inning with four of those runs coming on walks. They score another in the eight and win 12-10.
- April 12, 2009: Victim - Rockies. The Fighting Phils were behind 5-3 going into the top of the eighth. They hit a two run homer off of Corpas in the eighth and a two run homer or of Street in the ninth and win 7-5.
- April 14, 2009: Victim - Nationals. The Phillies had given up two leads themselves in this game and were tied 4-4 going into the seventh inning. They scored four runs in the seventh and another run in the eighth and then hang on for dear life and win 9-8.
- April 19, 2009: Victim - Padres (who were very hot at the time). The Phillies were down 4-2 going into the eighth inning. They scored two runs in the eighth and a run in the ninth and won 5-4. The Padres regular closer, Heath Bell was gassed from the previous couple of nights and was given this day off as rest. Too bad for the Padres, but great for the Phillies.
- April 24, 2009: Victim - Marlins (who were very hot at the time). The Phillies were just shooting blanks for eight innings against Josh Johnson and were down 3-0 going into the ninth inning. Unfortunately for the Marlins, they have a weakness in closing games with Matt Lindstrom. Three walks, a grand slam and a solo homer later, they scored seven runs and shocked the Marlins, 7-3.
- April 25, 2009: Victim - Marlins (who are not hot any more). The Phillies were in their favorite position and were down a run, 4-3 going into the ninth inning. The Marlins decide against Lindstrom. Didn't matter. The Phillies scored a run in the ninth and then two more in the tenth and win 6-4. In the ninth, they scored their run on a walk, a single, a wild pitch and a ground out. In the tenth, they hit four singles.
- April 27, 2009: Victim - Nationals (again). The game was tied, 7-7, going into the top of the eighth and the Nationals scored four runs to go ahead 11-7. By this point, the Nationals had hit five homers including two from Zimmerman. Game over right? Not! In the bottom of the eighth, they start the inning with a strikeout. Pedro Feliz (he's still playing??) hits a single. Rollins doubles. Men on second and third. Victorino hits a sacrifice fly. Two outs. No problem. Utley singles. 11-9. The Nationals pull Mock and put Hanrahan in there. Wild pitch. Utley goes to second. Ryan Howard is walked. Jayson Werth walks. Bases loaded. Raul Ibanez, who everyone said was a stupid signing for the Phillies, hits a grand slam (his sixth homer of the young season). 13-11, Phillies win.
Amazing stuff, eh? But the Phillies did this last year and the year before. They are a bookie's nightmare. You think the Phillies will lose and they don't. There doesn't seem to be a way to close them out.
Granted, they have hardly faced the cream of the league's bullpens, but even so, they have hit 14 of their season's 24 homers in the last three innings. That works out to be 58% of their season's homers in 33% of the game. They have hit 11 of their season's 24 homers in the eighth and ninth innings. That's 45% of their season's homers in the last 22% of the games.
The Phillies have a .990 team OPS (before tonight's game) in the eighth inning this year. Think that's good? They have a 1.136 team OPS in the ninth inning this year. Holy Cow! So it doesn't matter that they have a .540 OPS in the fifth inning or a little over .600 in the sixth. All that matters is the end of the game. And that's when they just find a way to get the game won.
After watching the Red Sox beat the Yankees in the third game of that series, the one thought the Fan had while watching it unfurl is that the Red Sox simply wanted it more than the Yankees. The same can be said of the Phillies. They just want to win the game at the end more than the other team wants to close them out. Seven out of ten wins in the last three innings. Six of those come from behind games. That's a team that simply wants to win and it doesn't matter what the obstacle is or how deep the hole.
So far this season, seven of their ten wins have occurred from the seventh inning on. Six of those were come from behind wins. And they have done it all different ways with walks, singles, stolen bases and of course, home runs. Let's recap those seven games:
- April 8, 2009: Victims - Braves. The Phillies had lost their first two games of the season and were headed to a third and were down 10-3 going into the seventh inning. They scored eight runs in the seventh inning with four of those runs coming on walks. They score another in the eight and win 12-10.
- April 12, 2009: Victim - Rockies. The Fighting Phils were behind 5-3 going into the top of the eighth. They hit a two run homer off of Corpas in the eighth and a two run homer or of Street in the ninth and win 7-5.
- April 14, 2009: Victim - Nationals. The Phillies had given up two leads themselves in this game and were tied 4-4 going into the seventh inning. They scored four runs in the seventh and another run in the eighth and then hang on for dear life and win 9-8.
- April 19, 2009: Victim - Padres (who were very hot at the time). The Phillies were down 4-2 going into the eighth inning. They scored two runs in the eighth and a run in the ninth and won 5-4. The Padres regular closer, Heath Bell was gassed from the previous couple of nights and was given this day off as rest. Too bad for the Padres, but great for the Phillies.
- April 24, 2009: Victim - Marlins (who were very hot at the time). The Phillies were just shooting blanks for eight innings against Josh Johnson and were down 3-0 going into the ninth inning. Unfortunately for the Marlins, they have a weakness in closing games with Matt Lindstrom. Three walks, a grand slam and a solo homer later, they scored seven runs and shocked the Marlins, 7-3.
- April 25, 2009: Victim - Marlins (who are not hot any more). The Phillies were in their favorite position and were down a run, 4-3 going into the ninth inning. The Marlins decide against Lindstrom. Didn't matter. The Phillies scored a run in the ninth and then two more in the tenth and win 6-4. In the ninth, they scored their run on a walk, a single, a wild pitch and a ground out. In the tenth, they hit four singles.
- April 27, 2009: Victim - Nationals (again). The game was tied, 7-7, going into the top of the eighth and the Nationals scored four runs to go ahead 11-7. By this point, the Nationals had hit five homers including two from Zimmerman. Game over right? Not! In the bottom of the eighth, they start the inning with a strikeout. Pedro Feliz (he's still playing??) hits a single. Rollins doubles. Men on second and third. Victorino hits a sacrifice fly. Two outs. No problem. Utley singles. 11-9. The Nationals pull Mock and put Hanrahan in there. Wild pitch. Utley goes to second. Ryan Howard is walked. Jayson Werth walks. Bases loaded. Raul Ibanez, who everyone said was a stupid signing for the Phillies, hits a grand slam (his sixth homer of the young season). 13-11, Phillies win.
Amazing stuff, eh? But the Phillies did this last year and the year before. They are a bookie's nightmare. You think the Phillies will lose and they don't. There doesn't seem to be a way to close them out.
Granted, they have hardly faced the cream of the league's bullpens, but even so, they have hit 14 of their season's 24 homers in the last three innings. That works out to be 58% of their season's homers in 33% of the game. They have hit 11 of their season's 24 homers in the eighth and ninth innings. That's 45% of their season's homers in the last 22% of the games.
The Phillies have a .990 team OPS (before tonight's game) in the eighth inning this year. Think that's good? They have a 1.136 team OPS in the ninth inning this year. Holy Cow! So it doesn't matter that they have a .540 OPS in the fifth inning or a little over .600 in the sixth. All that matters is the end of the game. And that's when they just find a way to get the game won.
After watching the Red Sox beat the Yankees in the third game of that series, the one thought the Fan had while watching it unfurl is that the Red Sox simply wanted it more than the Yankees. The same can be said of the Phillies. They just want to win the game at the end more than the other team wants to close them out. Seven out of ten wins in the last three innings. Six of those come from behind games. That's a team that simply wants to win and it doesn't matter what the obstacle is or how deep the hole.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Micah Owings - A Fan Favorite
Joe Posnanski, who just may be in the top five of sportswriters today, admitted the other day that his favorite player is Mike Jacobs, the former Marlins first baseman, now with Kansas City. In another recent post, Posnanski reminisced about his dilemma of being a writer who was still a fan and the advice he was given was to not publicly root for a team but root for the players. That makes sense. In the FanDome, the player most rooted for is Micah Owings of the Cincinnati Reds.
Owings is a pitcher who can hit, or a hitter who can pitch. Both descriptions fit. In a world where one league has a DH and one league has the pitchers hit, it's fun when the pitchers can actually do some damage. Owings hits on a regular basis. He isn't just a decent hitter like Zambrano of the Cubs. He is a threat every time he gets up to bat. And, it still can't be proven that he can't pitch either.
Against the Braves yesterday, Owings pitched seven innings, only gave up one run and struck out six. He also went 2 for 4 at the plate with a double and a run scored. He's now batting .400 for the year. The Fan can't resist. It's just too much fun to keep track of what he does and the Fan is hoping he has a good pitching year just to see how he hits for the rest of the year.
The Fan has a lot of favorite players and it's time to admit it. Perhaps the FanDome will have to resurrect the Box Score Favorites feature of a couple of years ago. Still mulling that one over. But for now, in a confessional of sorts, here is a list of players the Fan looks for intently over every box score scan:
- Zack Greinke: You just have to root for a guy who had a messed up head, worked through it with the strong help of the Royals and is now thriving and one of the best pitchers in the game.
- Derek Jeter: Can't help it. He handles himself the way that the Fan would want a ballplayer to handle himself. Been a major Fan of his since 1996.
- Mariano Rivera: Another class act who has done the impossible, carve out a Hall of Fame career with basically one pitch. Oh, as for his blown save the other day? The Fan blames the catcher for calling an outside pitch on Jason Bay. One more pitch inside and the game would have been over. Just like last night when Posada called an outside pitch on David Ortiz who has shown no ability to handle inside pitches this year. One more inside pitch and Pettitte would have been out of that jam last night with the game tied 1-1.
- Josh Hamilton: Another underdog story of a major drug addict who found God, found sobriety and re-found his extensive baseball skill.
- Mike Hampton: Another hitting pitcher, or pitching hitter. His comeback looks good so far.
- Mike Lowell: The guy looks like he is fifty years old, but he is a winner. Just seems to deliver when he is healthy despite looking like a chugger in a over-the-hill softball game.
- Lance Berkman: He is like the Phil Mikelson of baseball. He has the big frame, the tendency to man boobs, and yet has this sweet left-handed swing that is so good you have to admire the skill and talent.
- Ken Griffey Jr.: A major Fan of this Hall of Famer who always had big talent, big beautiful swing and yet smiled through his entire career.
- Alfonso Soriano: This one is despite the Fan's best interest. One of the biggest risk/reward players in all of baseball, it's hard not to root for a guy who is either amazingly good or amazingly awful and can show both in every game he plays.
- Curtis Granderson: His blog, which is sad that it can no longer be found, showed a talented player who was so down to earth and so respectful of the game and the African-American players that came before him, made him a Fan favorite for life. Of course it doesn't hurt that the guy can fly.
- Manny Ramirez: God love him, he is unique and polarizing. You either hate him or you love him. The Fan just thinks he's amazingly fun to watch to see what he'll do next.
- Evan Longoria: A new favorite. He just seems to play the right way and say the right things and is very magnetic to the average Fan.
- Nick Johnson: The brittle first baseman for the Nationals is the little engine that could...when he is not on the disabled list. Just like the guy.
- The entire Pittsburgh Pirate pitching staff: Because the Fan wants to see a miracle. Doesn't everyone?
Owings is a pitcher who can hit, or a hitter who can pitch. Both descriptions fit. In a world where one league has a DH and one league has the pitchers hit, it's fun when the pitchers can actually do some damage. Owings hits on a regular basis. He isn't just a decent hitter like Zambrano of the Cubs. He is a threat every time he gets up to bat. And, it still can't be proven that he can't pitch either.
Against the Braves yesterday, Owings pitched seven innings, only gave up one run and struck out six. He also went 2 for 4 at the plate with a double and a run scored. He's now batting .400 for the year. The Fan can't resist. It's just too much fun to keep track of what he does and the Fan is hoping he has a good pitching year just to see how he hits for the rest of the year.
The Fan has a lot of favorite players and it's time to admit it. Perhaps the FanDome will have to resurrect the Box Score Favorites feature of a couple of years ago. Still mulling that one over. But for now, in a confessional of sorts, here is a list of players the Fan looks for intently over every box score scan:
- Zack Greinke: You just have to root for a guy who had a messed up head, worked through it with the strong help of the Royals and is now thriving and one of the best pitchers in the game.
- Derek Jeter: Can't help it. He handles himself the way that the Fan would want a ballplayer to handle himself. Been a major Fan of his since 1996.
- Mariano Rivera: Another class act who has done the impossible, carve out a Hall of Fame career with basically one pitch. Oh, as for his blown save the other day? The Fan blames the catcher for calling an outside pitch on Jason Bay. One more pitch inside and the game would have been over. Just like last night when Posada called an outside pitch on David Ortiz who has shown no ability to handle inside pitches this year. One more inside pitch and Pettitte would have been out of that jam last night with the game tied 1-1.
- Josh Hamilton: Another underdog story of a major drug addict who found God, found sobriety and re-found his extensive baseball skill.
- Mike Hampton: Another hitting pitcher, or pitching hitter. His comeback looks good so far.
- Mike Lowell: The guy looks like he is fifty years old, but he is a winner. Just seems to deliver when he is healthy despite looking like a chugger in a over-the-hill softball game.
- Lance Berkman: He is like the Phil Mikelson of baseball. He has the big frame, the tendency to man boobs, and yet has this sweet left-handed swing that is so good you have to admire the skill and talent.
- Ken Griffey Jr.: A major Fan of this Hall of Famer who always had big talent, big beautiful swing and yet smiled through his entire career.
- Alfonso Soriano: This one is despite the Fan's best interest. One of the biggest risk/reward players in all of baseball, it's hard not to root for a guy who is either amazingly good or amazingly awful and can show both in every game he plays.
- Curtis Granderson: His blog, which is sad that it can no longer be found, showed a talented player who was so down to earth and so respectful of the game and the African-American players that came before him, made him a Fan favorite for life. Of course it doesn't hurt that the guy can fly.
- Manny Ramirez: God love him, he is unique and polarizing. You either hate him or you love him. The Fan just thinks he's amazingly fun to watch to see what he'll do next.
- Evan Longoria: A new favorite. He just seems to play the right way and say the right things and is very magnetic to the average Fan.
- Nick Johnson: The brittle first baseman for the Nationals is the little engine that could...when he is not on the disabled list. Just like the guy.
- The entire Pittsburgh Pirate pitching staff: Because the Fan wants to see a miracle. Doesn't everyone?
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Seattle Mariners Sailing Strongly
Don't look now but the Seattle Mariners lead the American League West by three and a half games. With a division facing massive pitching woes in Anaheim, Oakland and Texas, they just could win this thing.
Their pitching has been sensational. They are fifth in the majors through the first six innings and first from the seventh inning on. Their bullpen has a 1.91 ERA and the team overall has given up the second fewest walks in the majors.
The team's offense hasn't been that great and they are in the middle of the pack in team batting average. The Mariners' On Base Percentage is a woeful .318, currently 24th in the majors. But pitching cancels out a lot of batting woes and the Mariners certainly are pitching.
The Mariners currently have the second best record in the American League (behind Toronto) and are 7-1 in their own division (12-6 overall). If they can maintain a .500 record outside of their own division and keep mashing up their rivals, they have a great chance to stay on top of the division throughout the year.
Their pitching has been sensational. They are fifth in the majors through the first six innings and first from the seventh inning on. Their bullpen has a 1.91 ERA and the team overall has given up the second fewest walks in the majors.
The team's offense hasn't been that great and they are in the middle of the pack in team batting average. The Mariners' On Base Percentage is a woeful .318, currently 24th in the majors. But pitching cancels out a lot of batting woes and the Mariners certainly are pitching.
The Mariners currently have the second best record in the American League (behind Toronto) and are 7-1 in their own division (12-6 overall). If they can maintain a .500 record outside of their own division and keep mashing up their rivals, they have a great chance to stay on top of the division throughout the year.
Big Three in AL East? Big ERA
The big three teams in the American League East were predicted as the monsters of baseball. Headlines and projections stated that the Red Sox, Yankees and Bay Rays were the best three teams in the sport. Those clarion calls were based on pitching. Each team was projected to be deep in pitching with enough pop at the plate to be awesome. We are almost twenty games into the season now and Boston is riding a big win streak. But the other two teams look far from great. And pitching woes have beset all three.
Let's start with the Yankees. Their pitching staff has been a total disaster. Not just a little derailment, the pitching has been a train wreck. They have already had games where they have given up 22 runs and 16 runs. They have an astounding ERA through the first seven innings of a game of 6.79, dead last in the majors. Innings after the sixth haven't been much better where they have an ERA of 5.78. You can't get much worse. Sabathia has had one good game so far in four tries. Burnett gave them three good starts and then got bombed in Boston. Wang has been so bad they don't know what to do with him. Pettitte has been steady but Chamberlain has been all over the place and doesn't seem to have his old swagger.
The Red Sox lost Matsuzaka to the WBC shoulderitis. Beckett hasn't been good. Lester has been up and down. Their best pitcher so far has been an ancient Tim Wakefield. Who saw that coming? The team's ERA through the first six innings is sitting at 4.94. That is currently 21st in the majors. 4.94 from a staff that was supposed to be scary good? hmm.. It is hard to argue with their current win streak. They could run away from the other two. But Toronto has had the best pitching in the division so far and are fifth in the majors in ERA through the first six innings of their games.
Meanwhile, the Bay Rays are fourteenth in the majors in ERA through the first six innings, but 21st in the league from innings seven on. They are hitting well, but their batting average drops off dramatically after the sixth inning. In other words, they are striking early but not doing anything late. If they aren't hitting in the late innings and can't pitch in the late innings, that adds up to a lot of losses and though they have pitched far better than the Yankees, their record isn't nearly as good.
It will be interesting to watch what happens. It's a crazy game and things definitely haven't gone as planned thus far.
Let's start with the Yankees. Their pitching staff has been a total disaster. Not just a little derailment, the pitching has been a train wreck. They have already had games where they have given up 22 runs and 16 runs. They have an astounding ERA through the first seven innings of a game of 6.79, dead last in the majors. Innings after the sixth haven't been much better where they have an ERA of 5.78. You can't get much worse. Sabathia has had one good game so far in four tries. Burnett gave them three good starts and then got bombed in Boston. Wang has been so bad they don't know what to do with him. Pettitte has been steady but Chamberlain has been all over the place and doesn't seem to have his old swagger.
The Red Sox lost Matsuzaka to the WBC shoulderitis. Beckett hasn't been good. Lester has been up and down. Their best pitcher so far has been an ancient Tim Wakefield. Who saw that coming? The team's ERA through the first six innings is sitting at 4.94. That is currently 21st in the majors. 4.94 from a staff that was supposed to be scary good? hmm.. It is hard to argue with their current win streak. They could run away from the other two. But Toronto has had the best pitching in the division so far and are fifth in the majors in ERA through the first six innings of their games.
Meanwhile, the Bay Rays are fourteenth in the majors in ERA through the first six innings, but 21st in the league from innings seven on. They are hitting well, but their batting average drops off dramatically after the sixth inning. In other words, they are striking early but not doing anything late. If they aren't hitting in the late innings and can't pitch in the late innings, that adds up to a lot of losses and though they have pitched far better than the Yankees, their record isn't nearly as good.
It will be interesting to watch what happens. It's a crazy game and things definitely haven't gone as planned thus far.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
A Night of Blown Saves
Some pretty famous writers have stated that the Save is not a valid statistic. Just as many have stated that a good closer is not more valuable than any other pitcher. Tell that to the teams that had their guts ripped out last night due to the closer not getting the job done. It happened all over the major leagues last night, the loudest coming from the great Mariano Rivera. But he wasn't alone last night. Let's look at the damage:
- Mariano Rivera (Yankees): The Yankees held a 4-2 lead going into the ninth inning. Boston has its very best hitters coming up. Rivera had come into the game in the eighth to record the last out, which is a bit unusual for him, but less unusual against the Red Sox. With two outs, Rivera threw a cutter outside to Jason Bay. Big mistake and maybe just as bad an error on the catcher who called the pitch as on Rivera who delivered it. Bay knocked it out to dead center. Tie game. The Red Sox would go on to win in the 11th with a walk-off homer by Kevin Youkilis off of the worst Yankee reliever - Marte.
- George Sherrill (Orioles): The Orioles got a great start from newcomer Koji Uehara and were leading 4-3 going into the ninth. George Sherrill was called to get the save and couldn't get it done. Michael Young hit a two run homer and the Rangers won 5-4. Sherrill has now blown 22% of his lifetime save opportunities. Tell the fans in Baltimore that a save is a stupid statistic.
- Matt Lindstrom (Marlins): The Fan stated earlier this month that Lindstrom was a weakness for the Marlins, who otherwise are very strong in overall pitching. Last night against the Phillies, Josh Johnson had a lights out outing with seven shutout innings, fanning eight. Leo Nunez was fantastic in the eighth, striking out two. The ninth belonged to Lindstrom and he belonged to the Phillies. He was within an out of getting the save but then gave up a grand slam to Victorino and then a back-to-back solo homer by Chase Utley. Lindstrom's line for the night: 0.2 4 7 7 3 1. Ugh. Lindstrom has now blown two of five save opportunities this year and five of thirteen for his career. Florida fans must really think the save is a stupid stat.
- Manuel Corpas (Colorado): The Rockies have two closers, Corpas and Hudson Street. Street started the year as the closer, but was ineffective and then Corpas was given the job. Last night against the Dodgers, Street gave up two runs in the eighth to allow the Dodgers to go ahead in the game. After the Rockies came back and tied the game in the bottom of the eighth with two runs of their own, Corpas gave up the game winner in the ninth. Not a blown save, but a blown win by both Street and Corpas.
So that's four games affected negatively by the closer out of fifteen games played (27%). And K-Rod very nearly blew the save for the Mets and Johan Santana. All losses are hard to take, but when you have a game nearly won and lose it in the late innings, it's a particularly nasty way to lose.
- Mariano Rivera (Yankees): The Yankees held a 4-2 lead going into the ninth inning. Boston has its very best hitters coming up. Rivera had come into the game in the eighth to record the last out, which is a bit unusual for him, but less unusual against the Red Sox. With two outs, Rivera threw a cutter outside to Jason Bay. Big mistake and maybe just as bad an error on the catcher who called the pitch as on Rivera who delivered it. Bay knocked it out to dead center. Tie game. The Red Sox would go on to win in the 11th with a walk-off homer by Kevin Youkilis off of the worst Yankee reliever - Marte.
- George Sherrill (Orioles): The Orioles got a great start from newcomer Koji Uehara and were leading 4-3 going into the ninth. George Sherrill was called to get the save and couldn't get it done. Michael Young hit a two run homer and the Rangers won 5-4. Sherrill has now blown 22% of his lifetime save opportunities. Tell the fans in Baltimore that a save is a stupid statistic.
- Matt Lindstrom (Marlins): The Fan stated earlier this month that Lindstrom was a weakness for the Marlins, who otherwise are very strong in overall pitching. Last night against the Phillies, Josh Johnson had a lights out outing with seven shutout innings, fanning eight. Leo Nunez was fantastic in the eighth, striking out two. The ninth belonged to Lindstrom and he belonged to the Phillies. He was within an out of getting the save but then gave up a grand slam to Victorino and then a back-to-back solo homer by Chase Utley. Lindstrom's line for the night: 0.2 4 7 7 3 1. Ugh. Lindstrom has now blown two of five save opportunities this year and five of thirteen for his career. Florida fans must really think the save is a stupid stat.
- Manuel Corpas (Colorado): The Rockies have two closers, Corpas and Hudson Street. Street started the year as the closer, but was ineffective and then Corpas was given the job. Last night against the Dodgers, Street gave up two runs in the eighth to allow the Dodgers to go ahead in the game. After the Rockies came back and tied the game in the bottom of the eighth with two runs of their own, Corpas gave up the game winner in the ninth. Not a blown save, but a blown win by both Street and Corpas.
So that's four games affected negatively by the closer out of fifteen games played (27%). And K-Rod very nearly blew the save for the Mets and Johan Santana. All losses are hard to take, but when you have a game nearly won and lose it in the late innings, it's a particularly nasty way to lose.
Friday, April 24, 2009
It's a Good Thing No Bets Are Placed
If you haven't been playing along at BallHype.com, you should. It's fun and you can win a shirt or something. But the best part is that if you are good and lead for a week, then your name is mentioned, which could just help lead more people to your site (if you blog that is). The trouble is, the Fan can't figure this season out. And it is showing big time on picks. The Fan was rolling during Spring Training amassing an impressive record. But as the season continues to mess around upside down where the Pirates and Royals are contenders and the Bay Rays aren't (yet), the Fan couldn't pick a game correctly if his life depended on it. Let's take a few of Thursday's games for examples:
Royals vs. Indians: The Royals started Gil (ga) Meche, who has really pitched well. The Indians started Anthony Reyes and his 4.94 lifetime ERA. Simple right? Pick the Royals. All was going well, but Trey Hillman is not having a good year managing his bullpen. Meche ran into trouble in the eighth inning and Hillman brought in Mahay (as in: Mahay I please lose this game for you?) who gave up a three run homer to Sizemore. Game over. Pick: LOSER!
Brewers vs. Phillies: It was Cole Hamels against Dave Bush. Bush had an ERA over 5.00 coming into the game. Hamels has had a little injury thing. But is still the much better pitcher. Both teams are struggling so all things being equal, Hamels should beat Bush. Well, Hamels gets pelted by a line drive. Bush flirts with a no-hitter. Brewers won running way. Pick: LOSER!
The Fan correctly picked the Cardinals to beat the Mets and Cueto and the Reds to beat the Cubbies. Whew! Now the Fan is even for the day. The Fan peaks above .500 when Ichiro and King Felix beat the Bay Rays, 1-0.
Okay. Next? In a grand matchup, Baltimore faced the White Sox and it was a battle of seemingly washed up pitchers. Bartolo Colon started for the White Sox and Eaton started for the Orioles. The Fan has been merciless at Eaton's expense and surely, in a battle of overweight pitchers, Colon should beat Eaton every time right? Colon gives the White Sox a colonoscopy and Eaton has a fantastic outing, fanning nine in seven innings. Pick: LOSER! Back to .500
Texas vs. Toronto: Kevin Millwood started for Texas. After picking on him all spring here in the FanDome, Millwood sprang out of the gate once the season started with two dominating starts and a 2-0 record. Feeling bad for ragging on Millwood, the Fan buys into his good start as he is facing an inexperienced Scott Richmond who has pitched in all of seven games in his big league career. Another no-brainer, right? Grrrr. Richmond only gives up two solo homers in six innings and fans eight and wins the game. Millwood wasn't bad but gave up three homers and thus the game. Pick: LOSER! Back in the red.
As of this writing, two games aren't finished yet. One is going the Fan's way, the other, not. So far this week, the Fan is 15-22. Does the Fan feel like a big dope or what? But you know what? The unpredictability of the games is what makes baseball so much fun. It's hell on prognosticating, but it sure is fun to see what happens every day. And like Josh Hamilton in Texas and the Bay Rays, the Fan's season is sure to turn around. Either way, what a great sport and what great fun!
Royals vs. Indians: The Royals started Gil (ga) Meche, who has really pitched well. The Indians started Anthony Reyes and his 4.94 lifetime ERA. Simple right? Pick the Royals. All was going well, but Trey Hillman is not having a good year managing his bullpen. Meche ran into trouble in the eighth inning and Hillman brought in Mahay (as in: Mahay I please lose this game for you?) who gave up a three run homer to Sizemore. Game over. Pick: LOSER!
Brewers vs. Phillies: It was Cole Hamels against Dave Bush. Bush had an ERA over 5.00 coming into the game. Hamels has had a little injury thing. But is still the much better pitcher. Both teams are struggling so all things being equal, Hamels should beat Bush. Well, Hamels gets pelted by a line drive. Bush flirts with a no-hitter. Brewers won running way. Pick: LOSER!
The Fan correctly picked the Cardinals to beat the Mets and Cueto and the Reds to beat the Cubbies. Whew! Now the Fan is even for the day. The Fan peaks above .500 when Ichiro and King Felix beat the Bay Rays, 1-0.
Okay. Next? In a grand matchup, Baltimore faced the White Sox and it was a battle of seemingly washed up pitchers. Bartolo Colon started for the White Sox and Eaton started for the Orioles. The Fan has been merciless at Eaton's expense and surely, in a battle of overweight pitchers, Colon should beat Eaton every time right?
Texas vs. Toronto: Kevin Millwood started for Texas. After picking on him all spring here in the FanDome, Millwood sprang out of the gate once the season started with two dominating starts and a 2-0 record. Feeling bad for ragging on Millwood, the Fan buys into his good start as he is facing an inexperienced Scott Richmond who has pitched in all of seven games in his big league career. Another no-brainer, right? Grrrr. Richmond only gives up two solo homers in six innings and fans eight and wins the game. Millwood wasn't bad but gave up three homers and thus the game. Pick: LOSER! Back in the red.
As of this writing, two games aren't finished yet. One is going the Fan's way, the other, not. So far this week, the Fan is 15-22. Does the Fan feel like a big dope or what? But you know what? The unpredictability of the games is what makes baseball so much fun. It's hell on prognosticating, but it sure is fun to see what happens every day. And like Josh Hamilton in Texas and the Bay Rays, the Fan's season is sure to turn around. Either way, what a great sport and what great fun!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
LIVAN - As Sung By Elton John
With all due respect to Elton John and Bernie Taupin and to Michael Silver who does this much better, Thursday's Met box score prompted this song to the tune of one of Elton John's greatest hits.
Apologies in advance to those of you who wanted the Mets to win...
Livan wears his war wound like a crown
He calls his sib, Orlando
`Cause his daddy is the same
But they don't pitch the same on the mound
Livan, Livan likes his money
He makes a lot they say
Spends his days pitching
While the batters always swing away
He was born a Cuban under Castro on a sunny day
But the New York Times said his fastball's dead
And the rout's begun
Hernandez laid another egg today
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Livan
In tradition with the family plan
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Livan
Livan throws cartoon balloons in town
Yet somehow his career survives
Orlando still wishes he was pitching
Sits in the stands and wonders why
And Orlando, he wants to go to Citi
Leaving Livan far behind
Take the mound and go sailing
While Livan, Livan's fastball dies
He was born a Cuban under Castro on a sunny day
But the New York Times said his fastball's dead
And the rout's begun
Hernandez laid another egg today
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Livan
In tradition with the family plan
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Livan
Apologies in advance to those of you who wanted the Mets to win...
Livan wears his war wound like a crown
He calls his sib, Orlando
`Cause his daddy is the same
But they don't pitch the same on the mound
Livan, Livan likes his money
He makes a lot they say
Spends his days pitching
While the batters always swing away
He was born a Cuban under Castro on a sunny day
But the New York Times said his fastball's dead
And the rout's begun
Hernandez laid another egg today
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Livan
In tradition with the family plan
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Livan
Livan throws cartoon balloons in town
Yet somehow his career survives
Orlando still wishes he was pitching
Sits in the stands and wonders why
And Orlando, he wants to go to Citi
Leaving Livan far behind
Take the mound and go sailing
While Livan, Livan's fastball dies
He was born a Cuban under Castro on a sunny day
But the New York Times said his fastball's dead
And the rout's begun
Hernandez laid another egg today
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
And he shall be Livan
In tradition with the family plan
And he shall be Livan
And he shall be a good man
He shall be Livan
The Strange Case of Melky Cabrera
Watched a really long Yankee/A's game today that went 14 innings and lasted over five hours. The game featured a start by Melky Cabrera, who spelled Brett Gardner with a left-hander starting for the A's. The game showed the best of the worst of Melky and left this writer just as confused about him as ever.
First, there is the lingering issue over replacing Bernie Williams. Everyone knows that Bernie slowed down and the time had come, but it was still emotionally difficult. The guy was such a steady and classy force for a long time. And he was pushed out by this awkward, graceless kid named Melky Cabrera. Cabrera was everything that Williams was not. He was emotional and voracious. He never looked smooth, yet he did okay to start with.
Perhaps part of his problem was that, in a rarity for the Yankees, this home grown youngster was rushed to the big leagues. He only has 179 At Bats in AAA and 52 of those came last year when he was demoted in the middle of the season. He hit well in AAA, but perhaps he wasn't given enough time to grow there.
He started well for the Yankees. In 2006, he hit .280 and had an OPS of .752 to go along with an OBP of .360. Those are decent numbers. His lack of power, though, left him with an OPS+ of under 100, which is league average. His numbers dropped two straight years after 2006. The OPS from 2006 to 2008: .752, .718, .641. His OBP dropped similarly: .360, .327, .301.
Watching him regularly, the appearance was that he had some good moments, but was over matched against good pitching. Some players can put the ball in play against league average to better pitchers. Melky wilted in such situation, which also explains his well-under-the-Mendoza average in playoff appearances.
Last year was pitiful for Cabrera. He seemed totally lost. He still couldn't hit good pitching, but he wasn't hitting bad pitching either. He flailed around and just looked like he didn't have a clue. Every day, it was like watching Soriano against Red Sox pitching in the playoffs.
So this year, coming into Spring Training, it was announced early that he had to fight for his job. He was going to compete with Brett Gardner for the centerfield position. Gardner, who didn't light the world on fire in his debut last year, has some skills. He is a better fielder than Cabrera, is faster on the base paths and allegedly had more patience at the plate. Plus (shhh), he's white. Apologies for bringing that up, but, hey, it's more of a factor than you may think.
The competition from the beginning was Gardner's to lose. And he didn't. He had a great spring. Melky started roughly in Spring Training and never could catch up, though his ending numbers were very good. Just not good enough to win the job from Gardner.
Today's long game was Melky Cabrera in a nutshell. He started off the night with a right-handed homer. Then he whiffed three times and looked terrible. His strikeout with the bases loaded and no out was particularly horrible. The relief pitcher was throwing the ball all over the place. He couldn't find home plate. That's why the bases were loaded. You would think that Cabrera would only swing at something fat and let the pitcher hang himself. But he didn't. First he swung at one below his knees and then looked like a Little Leaguer by striking himself out on a pitch way over his head. Pathetic.
Of course, it didn't help that his replacement pitch hit right after him and Gardner popped out weakly to the third baseman and after a Jeter pop up, the inning was over and the game droned on for another two hours.
And so we go to the fourteenth inning. There was one out and Swisher was on first with another walk. Swisher is like a younger Giambi in almost every way. Then Cabrera steps up to hit. You can't blame the Fan for rolling his eyes. A double play or a strikeout was fully expected. But instead, Melky crushed one and as soon as he hit it, everyone watching knew the game was over.
So there you have it. Six at bats, two homers, a walk and three strikeouts. That's Cabrera. Who knows. He's terrible, he's a hero. He's terrible. He's okay. It's strange. Maybe he just needs a fresh start and another team that believes in him. Or maybe he's just going to be a usable replacement player who won't necessarily kill you when he gets in there. All the Fan knows is that he is one of the strangest cases in all of baseball.
First, there is the lingering issue over replacing Bernie Williams. Everyone knows that Bernie slowed down and the time had come, but it was still emotionally difficult. The guy was such a steady and classy force for a long time. And he was pushed out by this awkward, graceless kid named Melky Cabrera. Cabrera was everything that Williams was not. He was emotional and voracious. He never looked smooth, yet he did okay to start with.
Perhaps part of his problem was that, in a rarity for the Yankees, this home grown youngster was rushed to the big leagues. He only has 179 At Bats in AAA and 52 of those came last year when he was demoted in the middle of the season. He hit well in AAA, but perhaps he wasn't given enough time to grow there.
He started well for the Yankees. In 2006, he hit .280 and had an OPS of .752 to go along with an OBP of .360. Those are decent numbers. His lack of power, though, left him with an OPS+ of under 100, which is league average. His numbers dropped two straight years after 2006. The OPS from 2006 to 2008: .752, .718, .641. His OBP dropped similarly: .360, .327, .301.
Watching him regularly, the appearance was that he had some good moments, but was over matched against good pitching. Some players can put the ball in play against league average to better pitchers. Melky wilted in such situation, which also explains his well-under-the-Mendoza average in playoff appearances.
Last year was pitiful for Cabrera. He seemed totally lost. He still couldn't hit good pitching, but he wasn't hitting bad pitching either. He flailed around and just looked like he didn't have a clue. Every day, it was like watching Soriano against Red Sox pitching in the playoffs.
So this year, coming into Spring Training, it was announced early that he had to fight for his job. He was going to compete with Brett Gardner for the centerfield position. Gardner, who didn't light the world on fire in his debut last year, has some skills. He is a better fielder than Cabrera, is faster on the base paths and allegedly had more patience at the plate. Plus (shhh), he's white. Apologies for bringing that up, but, hey, it's more of a factor than you may think.
The competition from the beginning was Gardner's to lose. And he didn't. He had a great spring. Melky started roughly in Spring Training and never could catch up, though his ending numbers were very good. Just not good enough to win the job from Gardner.
Today's long game was Melky Cabrera in a nutshell. He started off the night with a right-handed homer. Then he whiffed three times and looked terrible. His strikeout with the bases loaded and no out was particularly horrible. The relief pitcher was throwing the ball all over the place. He couldn't find home plate. That's why the bases were loaded. You would think that Cabrera would only swing at something fat and let the pitcher hang himself. But he didn't. First he swung at one below his knees and then looked like a Little Leaguer by striking himself out on a pitch way over his head. Pathetic.
Of course, it didn't help that his replacement pitch hit right after him and Gardner popped out weakly to the third baseman and after a Jeter pop up, the inning was over and the game droned on for another two hours.
And so we go to the fourteenth inning. There was one out and Swisher was on first with another walk. Swisher is like a younger Giambi in almost every way. Then Cabrera steps up to hit. You can't blame the Fan for rolling his eyes. A double play or a strikeout was fully expected. But instead, Melky crushed one and as soon as he hit it, everyone watching knew the game was over.
So there you have it. Six at bats, two homers, a walk and three strikeouts. That's Cabrera. Who knows. He's terrible, he's a hero. He's terrible. He's okay. It's strange. Maybe he just needs a fresh start and another team that believes in him. Or maybe he's just going to be a usable replacement player who won't necessarily kill you when he gets in there. All the Fan knows is that he is one of the strangest cases in all of baseball.
Success is Contagious
The Pirates and the Royals won again and again, pitching was the key for both. Paul Maholm improved his record to 3-0 and though his ERA rose a bit to just over 2, it was still a successful outing against a tough Florida club. Meanwhile, up in Cleveland, Brian Bannister returned triumphantly from the minors and pitched a gem for the Royals as they shut out what had been a hot hitting team.
With each game that goes by, you can see the confidence building in the pitching staffs of both teams. Success builds on itself and is contagious. Unless one experiences it, it's hard to describe. Now promise not to laugh, but the Fan knows a little about this subject.
Once upon a time, some twenty years ago, the Fan was one of the top bowlers in the state of New Hampshire. Now, come on! Stop laughing. Bowling is a real sport that takes skill and accuracy. The Fan bowled since he was a kid and fond memories of Saturday morning kid's leagues still linger. Of course, the head of those kid's leagues was one Mrs. Finn who was one hot mom. She had platinum hair and mini-skirts and low cut blouses and she was the bomb! She helped the Fan fall in love with bowling.
The Fan was always pretty good, in the 170 to 175 average range. Accuracy was the game and not pure talent. The Fan made all his spares and that helped overcome the lack of real strike power. After growing up and moving to New England, the Fan had married a woman from New Hampshire and she was a real fitness buff. She ran half marathons and came in third in the Miss New Hampshire Bodybuilding competition. She taught aerobics classes.
The Fan wasn't as much into it as she was, but working 70 hours a week in a hot, sweaty tannery put the Fan in great shape and he started joining his wife in some of those activities. So in the mid-1980s, the Fan was in the best shape of his life and for three years, was one of the top bowlers in the state. One year in particular stands out. The Fan averaged 196 and won the singles and doubles tournaments for the region and the doubles tournament in the state as well as several team events. The trophies are in a box some where.
That year was simply a year when the physical shape meshed with the knowledge of decades of participating and everything just came together. Each week built on the next and the Fan just knew what to do, where to throw it, where to stand and a killer instinct kicked in and there was no way anyone else was going to win. Heck, the Fan paid for a washer and dryer with bowling winnings and so was the Fan's very first computer, a 10MB model from some catalog outfit in California called DAK or something. So, if you all are sick of the Fan's writing, bowling is the reason this all came to be.
That winning zone can't be fully predicted by projections and statistical analysis. Some times, despite anything that has happened before, it all just comes together and some kind of mindset seeps in that makes anything possible. To tie all this back into where we started, the Pirates and the Royals are in that zone right now. The pitchers on both teams, particularly the starters, just believe they are going to be successful and they are feeding off each other and success is happening regularly.
Take Brian Bannister. Two years ago, he was a very successful starter for the Royals. Not overpowering, he was canny and pitched to a 12-9 record on a very bad team and had an ERA in the mid-threes. Then last year, the wheels fell off and as good as he was the year before, he was that bad last year. He gave up 265 base runners in just over 182 innings of work. His ERA ballooned to 5.76 and he lost 16 games.
He was demoted at the end of Spring Training because the Royals front five have been pitching really well. But he was brought up and pitches a gem, going six innings without giving up a run. Fortunately, manager, Trey Hillman, apparently has learned his lesson and Farnsworth wasn't anywhere to be seen and the Royals relievers finished up the shutout.
Maholm was featured in the FanDome yesterday so there is no need to go over that again. The point is that these pitching staffs are having a lot of fun and a lot of success and for two blue-coller, small market teams, you can't help but root that the success continues. Keep throwing those strikes, Boys. The Fan knows what it is like to get on a roll and it sure is a lot of fun.
With each game that goes by, you can see the confidence building in the pitching staffs of both teams. Success builds on itself and is contagious. Unless one experiences it, it's hard to describe. Now promise not to laugh, but the Fan knows a little about this subject.
Once upon a time, some twenty years ago, the Fan was one of the top bowlers in the state of New Hampshire. Now, come on! Stop laughing. Bowling is a real sport that takes skill and accuracy. The Fan bowled since he was a kid and fond memories of Saturday morning kid's leagues still linger. Of course, the head of those kid's leagues was one Mrs. Finn who was one hot mom. She had platinum hair and mini-skirts and low cut blouses and she was the bomb! She helped the Fan fall in love with bowling.
The Fan was always pretty good, in the 170 to 175 average range. Accuracy was the game and not pure talent. The Fan made all his spares and that helped overcome the lack of real strike power. After growing up and moving to New England, the Fan had married a woman from New Hampshire and she was a real fitness buff. She ran half marathons and came in third in the Miss New Hampshire Bodybuilding competition. She taught aerobics classes.
The Fan wasn't as much into it as she was, but working 70 hours a week in a hot, sweaty tannery put the Fan in great shape and he started joining his wife in some of those activities. So in the mid-1980s, the Fan was in the best shape of his life and for three years, was one of the top bowlers in the state. One year in particular stands out. The Fan averaged 196 and won the singles and doubles tournaments for the region and the doubles tournament in the state as well as several team events. The trophies are in a box some where.
That year was simply a year when the physical shape meshed with the knowledge of decades of participating and everything just came together. Each week built on the next and the Fan just knew what to do, where to throw it, where to stand and a killer instinct kicked in and there was no way anyone else was going to win. Heck, the Fan paid for a washer and dryer with bowling winnings and so was the Fan's very first computer, a 10MB model from some catalog outfit in California called DAK or something. So, if you all are sick of the Fan's writing, bowling is the reason this all came to be.
That winning zone can't be fully predicted by projections and statistical analysis. Some times, despite anything that has happened before, it all just comes together and some kind of mindset seeps in that makes anything possible. To tie all this back into where we started, the Pirates and the Royals are in that zone right now. The pitchers on both teams, particularly the starters, just believe they are going to be successful and they are feeding off each other and success is happening regularly.
Take Brian Bannister. Two years ago, he was a very successful starter for the Royals. Not overpowering, he was canny and pitched to a 12-9 record on a very bad team and had an ERA in the mid-threes. Then last year, the wheels fell off and as good as he was the year before, he was that bad last year. He gave up 265 base runners in just over 182 innings of work. His ERA ballooned to 5.76 and he lost 16 games.
He was demoted at the end of Spring Training because the Royals front five have been pitching really well. But he was brought up and pitches a gem, going six innings without giving up a run. Fortunately, manager, Trey Hillman, apparently has learned his lesson and Farnsworth wasn't anywhere to be seen and the Royals relievers finished up the shutout.
Maholm was featured in the FanDome yesterday so there is no need to go over that again. The point is that these pitching staffs are having a lot of fun and a lot of success and for two blue-coller, small market teams, you can't help but root that the success continues. Keep throwing those strikes, Boys. The Fan knows what it is like to get on a roll and it sure is a lot of fun.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The Pirates Are Pitching!
There was little secret to the stunning turnaround for the Tampa Bay Rays last year. Their defense improved dramatically and their pitching hit full stride. The Pirates came into this year following four straight seasons of either 94 or 95 losses. They made a determined effort coming into this year to focus on pitching and defense and both are currently clicking.
After tonight's 3-2 win over the red hot Marlins, the Pirates have given up 42 earned runs in 14 games or three runs per game. Since they are scoring 4.5 runs per game, that's a good way to start with an 8-6 record. Will the team hold up for the long haul and end their sub-.500 ways? If they were winning with offense, it would be easy to discount that possibility. But good pitching is a great way to move forward.
The first thing the Pirates did was hire Joe Kerrigan as their pitching coach. Say what you will about how much effect a coach has on a ball club, but Kerrigan immediately focused on two things. First, after watching video of last season, he noticed that the Pirates never challenged anyone inside. Secondly, they didn't pound the strike zone. Kerrigan was the pitching coach for the Expos and Red Sox when a kid named Pedro Martinez did a pretty good job of doing both.
He also ramped up the pitcher's conditioning so they wouldn't wilt as the season and the games went along. Whether it's the program or the pitchers that are making the difference is debatable, but you cannot debate the results.
Last year, the Pirates finished with a 5.10 ERA. They were 16th in the league in walks, hits and consequently, runs. So far this year, they are fifth in the league in walks and are first in the league in earned runs.
It starts with the rotation. Last year, the only starter with an ERA+ over 100 (league average)was Paul Maholm. This year, every starter is over 100. And even their most uneven starter to this point, Ian Snell, has an ERA of only 4.24. If he can get his control straightened out, he will be okay too. Maholm has become the ace of the staff and he's been unhittable so far. He's not a big time strike out guy (none of the starters are), but his WHIP is a fantastic 0.968 and he is only giving up 6.1 hits per nine innings.
Zack Duke seems to be back to the form he flashed a few seasons ago and is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA. Ross Ohlendorf has been a big surprise and though he is a hard luck 1-2, he's only walked three in 18 innings to go along with only 17 hits. Karstens had a rough first start but shut down the Marlins effectively on Tuesday night and won his first game of the year.
Some times, you have addition by subtraction. Last year's Bucs had too many starts by the likes of Matt Morris and Tom Gorzelanny. A top five of Maholm, Duke, Snell, Ohlendorf and Karstens is very competitive and can keep them in games all season long.
Relief pitching is by and large improved as well. The biggest plus is a full season of Matt Capps as closer. He's already started four for four in save opportunities and seems very competent. John Grabow is an important man in the bullpen and had a very good year last year with a 2.95 ERA in 74 appearances! That's a lot of games. Grabow is perfect so far this year and hasn't given up a run in six appearances. Jesse Chavez has been a nice addition and has a 1.50 ERA in five appearances so far.
The rest of the bullpen has been a bit of a mess and Tyler Yates, who had a decent season last year has had a rough start in particular. Three guys won't get it done all year and they will need help from a couple of others at least. But at least, when the team is ahead in the game, they have a nice set up at the end to close it out.
Pirate fans should be excited. This has been a lot of fun so far this year. It's a lot more fun than losing nearly every night. At least they are in most of their games and an 8-6 record is nothing to sneeze at. Do the Pirates have a shot at the division? No. But they do have a shot at being a decent team and an outside shot at playing .500 baseball or better.
As the Rays proved, fielding is a big part of pitching well. And defensively, the Pirates are holding their own very well. Sanchez is way above league average at second. The LaRoche brothers are both above league average at first and third. Morgan, McLouth and Moss are all above average in the outfield, though when Craig Monroe starts out there, they lose something but gain power at the plate.
Surprisingly, Jack Wilson is playing below league average (at least in range factor) and the team struggles defensively behind the plate. But the defense seems to be a strength and not a weakness and should help the team stay competitive.
There is a good feeling about this team. And it's been way too long since we've been able to say that about the Pittsburgh Pirates.
After tonight's 3-2 win over the red hot Marlins, the Pirates have given up 42 earned runs in 14 games or three runs per game. Since they are scoring 4.5 runs per game, that's a good way to start with an 8-6 record. Will the team hold up for the long haul and end their sub-.500 ways? If they were winning with offense, it would be easy to discount that possibility. But good pitching is a great way to move forward.
The first thing the Pirates did was hire Joe Kerrigan as their pitching coach. Say what you will about how much effect a coach has on a ball club, but Kerrigan immediately focused on two things. First, after watching video of last season, he noticed that the Pirates never challenged anyone inside. Secondly, they didn't pound the strike zone. Kerrigan was the pitching coach for the Expos and Red Sox when a kid named Pedro Martinez did a pretty good job of doing both.
He also ramped up the pitcher's conditioning so they wouldn't wilt as the season and the games went along. Whether it's the program or the pitchers that are making the difference is debatable, but you cannot debate the results.
Last year, the Pirates finished with a 5.10 ERA. They were 16th in the league in walks, hits and consequently, runs. So far this year, they are fifth in the league in walks and are first in the league in earned runs.
It starts with the rotation. Last year, the only starter with an ERA+ over 100 (league average)was Paul Maholm. This year, every starter is over 100. And even their most uneven starter to this point, Ian Snell, has an ERA of only 4.24. If he can get his control straightened out, he will be okay too. Maholm has become the ace of the staff and he's been unhittable so far. He's not a big time strike out guy (none of the starters are), but his WHIP is a fantastic 0.968 and he is only giving up 6.1 hits per nine innings.
Zack Duke seems to be back to the form he flashed a few seasons ago and is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA. Ross Ohlendorf has been a big surprise and though he is a hard luck 1-2, he's only walked three in 18 innings to go along with only 17 hits. Karstens had a rough first start but shut down the Marlins effectively on Tuesday night and won his first game of the year.
Some times, you have addition by subtraction. Last year's Bucs had too many starts by the likes of Matt Morris and Tom Gorzelanny. A top five of Maholm, Duke, Snell, Ohlendorf and Karstens is very competitive and can keep them in games all season long.
Relief pitching is by and large improved as well. The biggest plus is a full season of Matt Capps as closer. He's already started four for four in save opportunities and seems very competent. John Grabow is an important man in the bullpen and had a very good year last year with a 2.95 ERA in 74 appearances! That's a lot of games. Grabow is perfect so far this year and hasn't given up a run in six appearances. Jesse Chavez has been a nice addition and has a 1.50 ERA in five appearances so far.
The rest of the bullpen has been a bit of a mess and Tyler Yates, who had a decent season last year has had a rough start in particular. Three guys won't get it done all year and they will need help from a couple of others at least. But at least, when the team is ahead in the game, they have a nice set up at the end to close it out.
Pirate fans should be excited. This has been a lot of fun so far this year. It's a lot more fun than losing nearly every night. At least they are in most of their games and an 8-6 record is nothing to sneeze at. Do the Pirates have a shot at the division? No. But they do have a shot at being a decent team and an outside shot at playing .500 baseball or better.
As the Rays proved, fielding is a big part of pitching well. And defensively, the Pirates are holding their own very well. Sanchez is way above league average at second. The LaRoche brothers are both above league average at first and third. Morgan, McLouth and Moss are all above average in the outfield, though when Craig Monroe starts out there, they lose something but gain power at the plate.
Surprisingly, Jack Wilson is playing below league average (at least in range factor) and the team struggles defensively behind the plate. But the defense seems to be a strength and not a weakness and should help the team stay competitive.
There is a good feeling about this team. And it's been way too long since we've been able to say that about the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Patriot's Day and the Red Sox
The Fan has found the key to solid sports writing: Write about the Red Sox. It only took this writer 150 posts so far this year to figure this one out. Yesterday's FanDome featured a story on David Ortiz and readership jumped 200%. Well, this post is again about New England baseball...sort of. It's more about Patriot's Day. But, though it might seem like a cheap shill to hold onto those new readers, the Fan is more noble than that. Right. And the Fan just decided to add, "and the Red Sox," to the heading because "Patriot's Day" didn't seem strong enough.
For those of you who do not live in Massachusetts or Maine (which until 1820 was a district of Massachusetts), Patriot's Day is a quaint holiday that commemorates the battles of Lexington and Concord, the first skirmishes of the Revolutionary War. It's a weird holiday because state offices and many businesses in the two states close, but it's not a national holiday so you still get mail.
The day got off to a crappy start. Around Sunday afternoon, the Fan and his faithful and lovely wife heard this strange gurgling noise. We tramped around the house looking for this unusual sound and after many turns and twists, discovered that it emanated from the oil tank. That's not a good thing. It seems the bloody thing had gone bone dry and we hadn't noticed. Well, to those of you who actually live in places where spring has arrived, you may not understand that we in the frozen tundra of northern Maine still need heat. It was 20 degrees last night. The faithful and lovely wife was like an octopus in bed last night and not for the good reasons you would hope for that kind of description.
So the Fan set his internal alarm (the Fan has some uncanny ability to wake up at whatever time he envisions) for six o'clock in the morning so a trip to the oil company could occur and take care of the heat problem. Well, like clockwork, the Fan woke up at 6:30 (well, it was close) and managed to get to the oil company office exactly at 7 when they normally open. A handmade sign on the door informed the Fan that the office was closed due to the holiday that 48 other states do not celebrate.
Uh oh! Now what? Then it comes to mind that Number 2 fuel oil is really the same thing as diesel and some people use them interchangeably. But the Fan doesn't have a gas can that isn't tainted with gasoline. So a quick trip to the hardware store, proudly owned by the family of Senator Susan Collins since 1845, yields a five gallon can for $15. The next stop is to the gas station. The first thing the Fan notices is that the diesel tank doesn't have a debit card sliding thingy. So the nozzle is lifted, the numbers go to zero, but nothing happens. A quick run into the store reveals that the clerk said she authorized the thing to pump and it should work.
After looking things over more carefully, the Fan notices a little button that says, "Start." Silly, right? Well, the fuel is purchased and taken home and poured down the pipe. The Fan then goes in the basement and pushes the restart button on the furnace and it acts like it wants to go but stops dead. Four more attempts are made with the same results.
So the Fan then calls golfing buddy, Mike, who is much more of a man's man then this writer, who though he writes about the past more than the present, would be dead in seven days if he actually had to live back then. Mike states matter-of-factly that the furnace ran out of oil and has to be bled. "You mean I have to suck on a pipe or something?" asks the Fan incredulously. Mike, the man's man says he'll be right over.
Mike had been working on a motor this morning (which is the kind of thing men's men do) and had dropped it on his finger. So he shows up and he's bleeding on the floor and on the furnace and on the Coke bottle that acts as the reservoir for the bled oil, but the furnace kicks on and life is much better in the Fan's household. Thank goodness for men's men who take pity on good friends, even if they drip blood all over the place.
Well, this escapade puts the Fan's schedule a couple of hours behind and there was an order to fill and deliver and by the time all that was done, it was 2:30 in the afternoon. The Fan then figures there is still time to click on NESN and watch a little baseball. But the game is actually over!
One of the fun things about Patriot's Day is that the Boston Marathon is run, which was a lot more fun before it was won every year by an Ethiopian. And then the Red Sox always play right before noon. But this is American League baseball and these games always go over three hours, right? But not this one. Though it was a blowout by the Red Sox, the game was played rather quickly and NESN was showing Boston Bruins' highlights. Ugh!
So a quick look over at ESPN reveals that the Red Sox clobbered Hendrickson and the Orioles, which shouldn't surprise anyone and young Justin Masterson pitched well for the Red Sox. David Ortiz had two hits, including a triple, to once again make the Fan look like an idiot or something. But one triple doesn't mean much in the scheme of things and we'll see what he does from here.
The Fan decided to take the rest of the day off. Since the morning was traumatic and it was a holiday (for two states out of 50), it seemed justified. Except there was nothing baseball related to watch. So the Fan played Rocket Mania and fiddled around until the East Coast games were due to start, except they didn't because they were all rained out.
It actually hit fifty today so the Fan did get to sit outside, but since it was a darn two-state holiday, the kids next door had the day off from school and were endlessly running their dirt bikes around and around and around. That's probably what the children of men's men do.
What a strange day. But at least the Fan wrote about the Red Sox, so readership should be great again tomorrow. Except when they read this drivel, they will probably recognize it for the shameless attempt it was for readers. So hello, Red Sox Nation. Looks like your team is back on track and back in juggernaut mode. Enjoy.
For those of you who do not live in Massachusetts or Maine (which until 1820 was a district of Massachusetts), Patriot's Day is a quaint holiday that commemorates the battles of Lexington and Concord, the first skirmishes of the Revolutionary War. It's a weird holiday because state offices and many businesses in the two states close, but it's not a national holiday so you still get mail.
The day got off to a crappy start. Around Sunday afternoon, the Fan and his faithful and lovely wife heard this strange gurgling noise. We tramped around the house looking for this unusual sound and after many turns and twists, discovered that it emanated from the oil tank. That's not a good thing. It seems the bloody thing had gone bone dry and we hadn't noticed. Well, to those of you who actually live in places where spring has arrived, you may not understand that we in the frozen tundra of northern Maine still need heat. It was 20 degrees last night. The faithful and lovely wife was like an octopus in bed last night and not for the good reasons you would hope for that kind of description.
So the Fan set his internal alarm (the Fan has some uncanny ability to wake up at whatever time he envisions) for six o'clock in the morning so a trip to the oil company could occur and take care of the heat problem. Well, like clockwork, the Fan woke up at 6:30 (well, it was close) and managed to get to the oil company office exactly at 7 when they normally open. A handmade sign on the door informed the Fan that the office was closed due to the holiday that 48 other states do not celebrate.
Uh oh! Now what? Then it comes to mind that Number 2 fuel oil is really the same thing as diesel and some people use them interchangeably. But the Fan doesn't have a gas can that isn't tainted with gasoline. So a quick trip to the hardware store, proudly owned by the family of Senator Susan Collins since 1845, yields a five gallon can for $15. The next stop is to the gas station. The first thing the Fan notices is that the diesel tank doesn't have a debit card sliding thingy. So the nozzle is lifted, the numbers go to zero, but nothing happens. A quick run into the store reveals that the clerk said she authorized the thing to pump and it should work.
After looking things over more carefully, the Fan notices a little button that says, "Start." Silly, right? Well, the fuel is purchased and taken home and poured down the pipe. The Fan then goes in the basement and pushes the restart button on the furnace and it acts like it wants to go but stops dead. Four more attempts are made with the same results.
So the Fan then calls golfing buddy, Mike, who is much more of a man's man then this writer, who though he writes about the past more than the present, would be dead in seven days if he actually had to live back then. Mike states matter-of-factly that the furnace ran out of oil and has to be bled. "You mean I have to suck on a pipe or something?" asks the Fan incredulously. Mike, the man's man says he'll be right over.
Mike had been working on a motor this morning (which is the kind of thing men's men do) and had dropped it on his finger. So he shows up and he's bleeding on the floor and on the furnace and on the Coke bottle that acts as the reservoir for the bled oil, but the furnace kicks on and life is much better in the Fan's household. Thank goodness for men's men who take pity on good friends, even if they drip blood all over the place.
Well, this escapade puts the Fan's schedule a couple of hours behind and there was an order to fill and deliver and by the time all that was done, it was 2:30 in the afternoon. The Fan then figures there is still time to click on NESN and watch a little baseball. But the game is actually over!
One of the fun things about Patriot's Day is that the Boston Marathon is run, which was a lot more fun before it was won every year by an Ethiopian. And then the Red Sox always play right before noon. But this is American League baseball and these games always go over three hours, right? But not this one. Though it was a blowout by the Red Sox, the game was played rather quickly and NESN was showing Boston Bruins' highlights. Ugh!
So a quick look over at ESPN reveals that the Red Sox clobbered Hendrickson and the Orioles, which shouldn't surprise anyone and young Justin Masterson pitched well for the Red Sox. David Ortiz had two hits, including a triple, to once again make the Fan look like an idiot or something. But one triple doesn't mean much in the scheme of things and we'll see what he does from here.
The Fan decided to take the rest of the day off. Since the morning was traumatic and it was a holiday (for two states out of 50), it seemed justified. Except there was nothing baseball related to watch. So the Fan played Rocket Mania and fiddled around until the East Coast games were due to start, except they didn't because they were all rained out.
It actually hit fifty today so the Fan did get to sit outside, but since it was a darn two-state holiday, the kids next door had the day off from school and were endlessly running their dirt bikes around and around and around. That's probably what the children of men's men do.
What a strange day. But at least the Fan wrote about the Red Sox, so readership should be great again tomorrow. Except when they read this drivel, they will probably recognize it for the shameless attempt it was for readers. So hello, Red Sox Nation. Looks like your team is back on track and back in juggernaut mode. Enjoy.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Is David Ortiz Done?
David Ortiz has gone from Big Papi to Little Papoose. There was concern about Ortiz as the season started and it looks like the concern was well placed. Ortiz, who had wrist problems last year and saw his OPS dip from over 1 to .877, currently sits with an OPS of .484. He is striking out at an alarming rate and has one extra base hit all season long.
The Fan has long had a theory that those big boned players like Ortiz only have a shelf life of about 8 to 10 years. History is littered with the Mo Vaughans and Ron Kittles of the world and Ortiz has that body type. What has to be frustrating to the Red Sox brass is that the guy only gets paid to hit and he is hitting in the number three slot as always and has been a big, empty void for the team thus far.
Ortiz has now played in 12 games and has 47 At Bats. He has only 8 hits and only one of those was for extra bases (a double). He has struck out 14 times. If you look at his career, he has struck out about 21% of the time. This year he is percentage points away from 30%. If you look at his splits, he is faring worse against right handed pitching than he is against lefties and is only batting .160 against them (.222 against lefties). He has struck out 36% of the time this year against pitchers throwing right handed. That isn't right.
Ortiz started slowly last year too and only batted .198 in April, but if you go back and look at that month last year, he only struck out 18% of the time. And he had seven extra base hits including five homers. There is still a chance for him to hit four homers in the eleven days left this month, but it doesn't look promising at this point.
The Red Sox had better hope that he is just in a funk and that it isn't physical. They need him in the middle of that lineup. And if he doesn't pull out of it soon, it will put the team in an awkward position of having to decide whether to sit him when he is one of the most popular players on the team.
The Red Sox have a history of knowing when to dump a player who is declining. Either they didn't see this coming or they had an idea but were hoping they were wrong. His start has to make the team uncomfortable and the team has to hope he starts hitting in May like he did last year and stays healthy all year. If he does not, uncomfortable moments lie ahead.
The Fan has long had a theory that those big boned players like Ortiz only have a shelf life of about 8 to 10 years. History is littered with the Mo Vaughans and Ron Kittles of the world and Ortiz has that body type. What has to be frustrating to the Red Sox brass is that the guy only gets paid to hit and he is hitting in the number three slot as always and has been a big, empty void for the team thus far.
Ortiz has now played in 12 games and has 47 At Bats. He has only 8 hits and only one of those was for extra bases (a double). He has struck out 14 times. If you look at his career, he has struck out about 21% of the time. This year he is percentage points away from 30%. If you look at his splits, he is faring worse against right handed pitching than he is against lefties and is only batting .160 against them (.222 against lefties). He has struck out 36% of the time this year against pitchers throwing right handed. That isn't right.
Ortiz started slowly last year too and only batted .198 in April, but if you go back and look at that month last year, he only struck out 18% of the time. And he had seven extra base hits including five homers. There is still a chance for him to hit four homers in the eleven days left this month, but it doesn't look promising at this point.
The Red Sox had better hope that he is just in a funk and that it isn't physical. They need him in the middle of that lineup. And if he doesn't pull out of it soon, it will put the team in an awkward position of having to decide whether to sit him when he is one of the most popular players on the team.
The Red Sox have a history of knowing when to dump a player who is declining. Either they didn't see this coming or they had an idea but were hoping they were wrong. His start has to make the team uncomfortable and the team has to hope he starts hitting in May like he did last year and stays healthy all year. If he does not, uncomfortable moments lie ahead.
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