What the Orioles have with Nelson Cruz

The Orioles have agreed to a one year deal with Nelson Cruz for $8 million and another half a million in incentives. For a guy who has averaged 1.3 WAR for the past three years, the price is pretty much perfect and the length perfect as well as there is little or no risk. If Cruz passes his physical tomorrow, the Orioles have seemingly made a nice deal--though they do lose a draft pick. But what exactly do they get in Cruz?

At first glance, the Orioles get a guy with a career isolated power of .228, which gives their lineup more pop to go along with Chris Davis and Adam Jones. They also get a guy who has performed well in the post season if the Orioles can perhaps get there. Cruz has averaged 32 home runs per 162 games for his career. Those are positives for a good price.

They also get quite a few question marks. With the constant trouble Cruz has had with his legs over the past four seasons, his fielding stats have tumbled into the netherworld. He can spell Nick Markakis in right against some good left-handed pitchers, but otherwise, the Orioles should only use him as a DH.

The Orioles do have some question marks in left field. MLB Depth Charts has the Orioles with a platoon left field of Nolan Reimold and David Lough. The Orioles should hesitate to put Cruz in left as the position is not his natural position and there is more of a chance to hurt himself--something that has happened with far too much frequency in Cruz's career. If Cruz plays more than 40 games in the field, that would be too many.

Should the Orioles be a bit concerned about the home/road splits of Nelson Cruz? Perhaps. Cruz played his home games in Texas for all but his first cup of coffee for the Brewers in 2005. Texas is a great place to hit. 92 of Cruz's 157 homers were hit there.

In fact, his career home OPS is .912, or 178 points higher than his road OPS of .734. That is a pretty incredible difference. Fortunately, the Orioles play in a fairly friendly home park for batters.

Nelson Cruz has had fun hitting in Fenway Park, and has been fairly successful up in Toronto. But he has not hit well in Yankee Stadium III or at Tropicana Field. With 36 games to be played in those four locations, that is also a good news/bad news thing.

The AL East should take note that Nelson Cruz mashes fastballs and curves and struggles against most other pitches. Cruz is vulnerable to sliders and split fingered pitches. He also hits fly balls to most parts of the field but pulls most of his ground balls.

Nelson Cruz gives the Orioles a power bat, something that is becoming more rare in baseball these days. He should help the offense as long as he is not playing the field a great deal and giving back much of his offensive value. Other than the ouch of losing the draft pick, the length and the cost of the deal are ideal  As long as they hide his glove most of the time, Cruz should help the Orioles.

Jose Iglesias and Andrelton Simmons - Whose BABIP was more out of whack?

Jose Iglesias, if he plays full time, will be part of a debate between he and Andrelton Simmons on which is the better fielder. Simmons is fresh off one of the best fielding seasons for a shortstop...ever. Iglesias has that kind of reputation, but other than a few other-worldly highlights from 2013, has yet to put a full season together. But today, the focus is not on their fielding, but on which of the shortstops had a more unrealistic batting average based on balls in play (BABIP).

Iglesias ended the season with a batting average of .303 and a BABIP of .356. Andrelton Simmons ended the season with a BABIP of .247 and a batting average of .248. Since a large part of the two free-swinging batters on-base percentage is based on batting average (they do not walk much), this is an important question moving forward on their potential offensive worth.

Simmons did hit 17 homers in 2013, which Iglesias will never do, so Simmons does have that advantage. But looking at just the on-base percentage equation, the two players could not have had a more different outcome.

Here is a look at some BABIP figures for both as compared to each other and to the league average as a whole for 2013:

Where hit - MLB - Simmons - Iglesias

• Ground - .240 - .183 - .304
• Flyball - .182 - .145 - .200
• Line Dr - .674 - .642 - .708
• Pulled  - .391 - .317 - .545
• Up Mid. - .301 - .265 - .275
• Opp Fld - .307 - .195 - .367

While it is not a proper equation because of the percentage hit of each, you can see that Simmons is under on every category to the tune of a total of -348 points! Iglesias is over on every category except up the middle and is over by a total of 304 points. Those are some pretty glaring anomalies.

Most of Jose Iglesias' success with batted balls happened in the first three months of the season with the Red Sox. Regression set in during the month of July. At the end of July (the 30th), he was traded to the Tigers. In August with that team, his BABIP was .364. In September, he had another correction down to .243.

Of Iglesias' 290 balls in play for 2013, 18 of them were bunts. He beat out eleven of them. That 61.1% success rate would up his BABIP by four points. That's not a big push, but it does help. After looking at Iglesias' spray charts, a large percentage of his ground balls went to the left side of the infield and he beat out his share of those too. Those kinds of things help.

But, his BABIP was still a bit of a fluke as there were plenty of bloops and dribblers in there as all the Twitter conversation in April and May would attest.

Andrelton Simmons bunted thirteen times and beat them out for singles on four occasions, a .307 average. While still good, that will not make much of a dent on his BABIP. Like Iglesias, Simmons pulls a lot of his ground balls. But by attesting to his .183 average when hitting them, he does not beat a lot of them out.

Judging from Simmons' spray chart, he might be quite easy to defense as he does hit almost all of his ground balls to the left side: Source: FanGraphs 

Let's face it, if Simmons and Iglesias can be huge positives on defense for their teams, then it matters much less how well they hit. But every run gained is a positive one for a team. Simmons, despite hitting a large amount of ground balls to the same place in the infield, was unlucky overall in 2013. He should get better results if he can at least attain a BABIP near league average (.300). Iglesias will have to prove that his batting success in 2013 was not the fluke that it appears to be.

The over/under of PECOTA's top 15 players

I love projections. I fully understand that they are simply computer-generated predictors based on past performance and current playing factors. I also fully understand that they are somewhat helpful to fantasy baseball players. But projections are not perfect and never have been.

I do not have a favorite projection system. I may like ZiPs a little more because I follow the guy on Twitter and he is personable. But they all have their place and some are more conservative than others.

PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system and it tends to be conservative. I found their top fifteen position player projections very interesting. As such, I wanted to spend some time with these fifteen players and give you an over/under on whether PECOTA was too conservative or not. Too conservative is an over vote. Not conservative enough is an under vote. I will give you the player, the projected triple slash line, WAR(P) and then a justification of over or under. Here we go.

15 - Evan Longoria - .261/.350/.480  4.3 WARP: This is very conservative, so over. I don't have too much of a problem with the triple slash line as they are near to what Longoria did last year. But I consider Longoria's season a year ago to be disappointing on the offensive side. I think he will be better. And his fielding puts him over six WAR easily.

14 - Joe Mauer - .315/.402/.456  4.4 WARP: These numbers are all under his career averages and he beat each of them last year. Playing first base will free him up physically and as I wrote a few days ago, I think that will lead to bigger offensive numbers and make up for his loss of positional value by moving to the dead zone of first base. Over.

13 - Matt Kemp - .282/.344/.486  4.5 WARP: PECOTA must be still smoking whatever Kemp was having back in 2011. Of all the systems I have looked at, this is the most optimistic version of Matt Kemp of all of them. Unless proven otherwise, the 2011 Matt Kemp is gone for good in a haze of shoulder troubles. Under.

10 - Prince Fielder - .285/.393/.518  4.7 WARP: All the systems are conservative on Fielder, which is odd considering that he is moving from one of the toughest stadiums on hitters to one of the best. PECOTA is more optimistic than all the others for the big first baseman but still only projects him to hit 33 homers. Based on an albeit small sample size, I think he will hit 20 homers at home and 13 on the road should be a piece of cake. All Fielder has to do is get back to where he was in 2012 to beat this projection. Over.

10 - Andrew McCutchen - .278/.358/.465  4.7 WARP: This is probably the easiest one of the bunch. McCutchen has beaten these numbers in each of the last two seasons. Barring injury (knocking wood), he should breeze by these numbers. My only concern is if the Pirates fall back to a non-contention team. Over.

10 - Buster Posey - .294/.367/.466  4.7 WARP: Projecting a catcher is always problematic because so much depends on dings and dents accumulated over the season. All you have to do is look at the wild swing of Posey's fWAR numbers over the last four seasons to see what I mean: 3.9, 1.7, 7.7 and 4.8. PECOTA pegs Posey right around his numbers for last year, which I considered a bit of a down year for him. If he bounces back at all to somewhat near what he did in 2012, he will blow past these numbers. But again, for a catcher, this is a crap shoot at best. Over.

7 - Robinson Cano - .293/.343/.490  4.9 WARP: PECOTA is really expecting Safeco Field and the lack of protection in the lineup to mess with Cano. But let's look at it this way: In forty games played at that field, Cano has a .837 OPS, which is four points higher than this projection. All Cano has to do to blow away this projection is to do better on the road. Cano has batted over .300 in six of his last seven seasons including the last five in a row. His OBP has been 35 to 40 points higher than this for the last two seasons. And he has been over .500 slugging for five straight seasons. Yeah, Safeco will dampen him a bit, but come on. Over.

7 - Adrian Gonzalez - .286/.366/.485  4.9 WARP: Perhaps I have to admit my bias here. I really can't stand Adrian Gonzalez. There is no rhyme or reason for my antipathy, but there is. Even so, this is overly optimistic. Gonzalez's fWAR figures the last two seasons were 3.3 and 2.8. That is hardly close to 4.9. PECOTA has him hitting 28 homers. Not a chance. Under. But I am biased.

7 - Giancarlo Stanton - .267/.345/.546  4.9 WARP: Every projection system expects Stanton to have a monster season. The average projection for him is 5 WAR and 35 homers or more PECOTA has him at 40 homers. There are two things that concern me. First, pitchers have stopped pitching to him, second he strikes out too much and lastly, he cannot stay on the field for 150 games. I see only a chance for one of those three things to change. Under.

6 - Mike Trout - .288/.354/.467   5.2 WARP: Are you kidding me? Over. Easily. The Angels are going to have a better year and that can only help Trout. Over. Over. Over.

5 - Troy Tulowitzki - .298/.369/.524   5.4 WARP: One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to play 150 games or more. And if he does, these numbers will look puny. He is the best overall shortstop in the game, who unfortunately, cannot seem to get a full season in. I am going out on a limb here and saying that this is the year. Over.

3 - Miguel Cabrera - .313/.392/.560  5.7 WARP: Duh. Over. He will miss Prince Fielder, but the guy has murdered these numbers for years now.

3 - Ryan Braun - .302/.364/.544  5.7 WARP: Would you really say Ryan Braun in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera? No, but he has put up these kinds of numbers regularly. But how will he react after last year's fiasco? What will it be like with all that pressure to show he is that good without the drugs? I think this is 50/50. But I'm going under.

2 - Joey Votto - .299/.400/.531  5.9 WARP: The final OPS number is similar to what Votto put up last year. His on-base percentage was much higher, but his slugging was lower. I really don't understand the knock on him that Reds fans have of the guy. He is a great hitter. All that said, last year seemed like a down year for him when he did put the bat on the ball, though his BABIP was right in range with his career average. I don't know. The guy seems like a lock to get at least 5.9 WARP, but I am not real sold on the lineup around him. Under.

1 - Albert Pujols - .296/.382/.548  6.9 WARP: Surprise! I bet you wouldn't guess this in a million years. Not only does PECOTA project Pujols as the top WARP guy in baseball, but by a win! Wow. Pujols hasn't had a WAR this high since 2010. He is older. He is not the guy anymore. The guy now is Cabrera. Pujols isn't even the best player on his team. That would be Mike Trout. But...what if his struggles the last three years were because of his legs? What if that was fixed now and he has his base back under him. The guy was the superstar of superstars. He was better than Cabrera during his peak. What if, for one magical season, we see the Albert Pujols of old with a monster year? It could happen. Will it? I would not bet real money on it. But it is in the realm of possibility. Just ask the computer. Well...ask PECOTA's computer as no other projection system has him close to these numbers.

All Presidents Team

In honor of our presidents, here is a repost of the all presidential All Star team:

Since it is President's Day here in the United States, a holiday that means that the government and the banks are closed, but most everyone else is still working, it might be fun to come up with an all President All Star Team. Come up with your own if you can think of those that were missed.

• DH - Joe Carter
• LP - Whitey Ford
• RP - Grover Cleveland Alexander, His player page calls him Pete Alexander.
• C - Terry Kennedy, Gary Carter
• 1B - Benjamin ("Ben") Harrison Taylor - Negro League player/manager in the Hall of Fame
• 2B - Jack Roosevelt Robinson - Jackie Robinson!
• SS - Derrel McKinley Harrelson - You'd know him as Bud Harrelson
• 3B - Travis Jackson
• OF - Otis Nixon or Willie Wilson
• OF - George Washington Case - three time All Star in the 40s
• OF - Joseph Jefferson Jackson - Shoeless Joe Jackson!

BBA Linkfest - bring a deer generals

Welcome to another chapter of the BBA Linkfest. You may know that I am the current president of the general chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance and one of the things I like to do is feature our chapter's work. We have some new members, which is great.

"General" means that our chapter members do not have a team focus nor feature a specific topic such as fantasy or others. Our chapter members write about everything, which is sometimes harder to gain a foothold for pageviews. But it is who we are. Well, almost all of us except that Carelli guy who writes about the Yankees for Yahoo Sports. Heh.  Here are the links:

I start from the middle alphabetically and work my way around:

Matt Whitener of Cheap.Seats.Please. has a really entertaining rundown of the ten best closers in baseball. Hint: #1 just got a nice contract.

All kidding aside, Chris Carelli of Yahoo still dabbles at his The Baseball Stance site. This entry looks at the questions facing each of the 3o teams.

Justin had some birthday and anniversary celebrations this this past week (congrats!) but is frustrated by the wait of this year's MLB The Show over at this Baseblog site.

For one of our newer sites (welcome!), Off the Bench, Sean Morash looks at what the Reds might do with Homer Bailey.

On another of our newer sites, Payoff Pitch (welcome!), a very thorough examination of the 2014 Tampa Bay Rays is undertaken.

Kenneth Matinale of Radical Baseball has a terrific post as he struggles to place Derek Jeter in context with other post-WWII shortstops.

One of my favorite posts of the week is by David of BaseballRoundTable.com and tells the story of a Spring Training no-hitter started by none other than Pedro Martinez.

When stopping over at High Heat Stats, the problem is not finding a post to choose. Rather, it is finding which gem among Smaug's prizes to pick over the others. Doug has a really neat post on something Alex Cobb did in a game.

At The Baseball Hot Corner, Timmy Kennedy tries to help the Toronto Blue Jays decide on Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana.

The terrific Justin Miller who writes for three different sites including his own, inside the mlb, has a nice entry on the best recent one-year deals. Any time Andy Pettitte is in there, I'm happy.

The always prolific MLB Reports has a great post by Chuck Booth on the San Francisco Giants and a look at the team's payroll and contracts going forward. Be sure to check out Sully's videos every day too.

Another of our newer sites, Cover Those Bases, looks like a really good one. Especially if this breakdown of the Phillies' rotation is any indication.

We have a second baseball site in Italy! How cool is that? It is especially cool for me since the better half of my genetic makeup is Italian. The site is called Quarta Base and in this post, the author introduces himself to the BBA.

Another of our new sites, Pepper, celebrates the start of Spring Training. Welcome!

Eugene Tierney is not new to us, but he sure is nice to have around. In his 85% Sports post, he talks about Jason Heyward's new deal.

The always interesting Shawn Anderson of the Hall of Very Good has an interesting idea for the BBWAA. He also has a story on a two-star athlete you may know.

Mike Hllywa on Off Base Percentage (one of my favorite blog names) trolled Jose Canseco for a day.

My buddy over at Diamond Hoggers has a great new post on the fine art of baseball heckling and how sometimes it backfires.

Hans Weisse is another of our overseas writers at Dugout 24. This post tells you what he has been up to lately.

Ben's Baseball Bias has a wonderful roundtable discussion of the New York Yankees. Loved it.

The always fun Michael Clair of Old Time Family Baseball had some last minute Valentine's Day cards for you.

For my post of the day choice, Paul Sullivan of Sully Baseball, wrote a tribute to Jim Fregosi. I sure wish I could have met the guy. RIP.

The Sisco Kid of Baseball Sisco Kid has a tribute to Derek Jeter, who just announced that 2014 is his last season.

My great friend, Jonathan Mitchell of MLB Dirt actually thinks that Jason Hammel can help the Cubs. Maybe I like the writer so much because he is even more of an optimist than me!

Our original Italian writer, Mario Salvini has a great Spring Training story on Earl Weaver on his Che Palle! site.

Dan Kirby, a self-professed draft junkie, gives his top 100 draft pick predictions on the ever-prolific Through the Fence Baseball site.

Bryan of Replacement Level Baseball Blog gives us a truly terrific post on the Hall of Fame standard and which current players are on their way. Epic post!

For Baseball Junkies is thinking along Bryan's line and lists the All-Decades Teams from the 1920s to the 2000s. That's a lot of work!

Theo of Hot Corner Harbor bids a fitting adieu to Lance Berkman and Michael Young.

And lastly and leastly, you can read my look at the conservative projections of Jose Fernandez here.

And remember, as you look out at the frozen tundra like that outside my window, it has to be spring somewhere...

Jose Fernandez's conservative projections

Jose Fernandez's rookie season, as a 20 year old starting pitcher, started out as an interesting conversation piece. He had a couple of spectacular starts offset by some so-so starts, generally depending on whether he was home or away at the time. By the end of 2013, he was the talk of baseball writers and won the Rookie of the Year honors. Despite how he finished 2013, projection systems are taking a conservative approach to how Fernandez will perform in 2014.

First, let's look at the projection systems' numbers and then a discussion of them will follow:

System, IP, K/9, B/9, ERA, FIP, WAR

• ZiPS: 154, 9.53, 3.16, 2.57, 2.87, 4.5
• Oliver: 118, 9.67, 3.27, 2.74, 2.86, 2.6
• Steamer: 192, 10.01, 3.35, 3.35, 3.05, 3.8
• Fans: 201, 9.72, 2.87, 2.83, 2.97, 4.2
• PECOTA: 186, 9.77, N/A, 2.44, N/A, 4.6

If we average them all out, here is a list of how the projected numbers stack up to his 2013 numbers:

• IP - 170, less than 2013
• K/9 - 9.75, higher than 2013
• B/9 - 3.16, higher than 2013
• ERA - 2.79, higher than 2013
• FIP - 2.94, higher than 2013
• WAR - 3.94, lower than 2013.

As you can see, the average of the five projection systems paint a picture of a pitcher not as successful as last season. Two of the five systems projected his WAR at equal to 2013 or higher. They all projected more strikeouts per nine but higher ERA and FIP numbers.

The projections are, in fact, conservative. Is there a good reason to be? Well, sure. So many things can happen to a pitcher. There are pulled muscles, blisters, line drives hitting them like tiny dodge balls, sore shoulders and elbows and just plain bad luck. And consider that of the 79 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last season, only 46% of them, or 36 of them pitched 200 innings or more. Pitching is a tough gig.

But what if Jose Fernandez stays healthy and pitches 200 innings or more? What can we tell from last year? What we did see was a pitcher who gained mastery and unbelievable numbers as the season progressed.

In his first ten starts covering April and May, Fernandez went 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA with a 1.204 WHIP. Here is how he did each month after that:

• Jun: 2-1, 1.67, 0.928
• Jul: 3-1, 2.08, 0.857
• Aug: 3-1, 1.15, 0.846
• Sep: 2-0, 0.64, 0.786

Unbelievable, eh? He was getting better as the season went along. As you may or may not know, during the season, I pick the games every day to predict which team will win or won't win. In the first half, if Jose Fernandez was at home, I would pick the Marlins to win. If the Marlins were on the road, I would pick them to lose if Fernandez was pitching. After the first half, I always picked him to win. It did not matter if he was home or on the road.

This is a special pitcher who just happens to be heading into his Year 21 pitching. There is something exciting about him and when he pitches, he is the kind of pitcher that everyone wants to watch. The only thing that can derail him is some sort of injury and you really have to root against that happening with all of the fibers in your body if you are a baseball fan.

It is easy to understand the computer models being conservative. Things happen to pitchers. So much that actually occurs in the game are out of their control. His fielders have to field, his batters have to get ahead in the game to keep him on the mound and his catcher has to frame and block pitches well.

But there is a lot in his control. Even as a freshman pitcher, he got batters to swing at 31% of his pitches out of the strike zone. I think his walks will come down significantly. I think he has adapted to pitching on the road and getting batters to hit less fly balls on the road (which the records show he did). For gosh sakes, he led the league with only 5.3 hits per nine innings! That is remarkable.

If he stays healthy--and man, I hope he does--I see no reason why his ERA cannot again finish under 2.50, his winning percentage stay above 60% and his strikeout to walk ratio to improve. I see no reason why he cannot go 200 innings at least and yet keep his WHIP under 1.00.

I cannot wait to see what he does because pitchers like him do not come around very often. If Jose Fernandez does not finish with 6 WAR or higher, I will be totally shocked and disappointed.

A Charlie Snow Day

The life of a writer is not always kind. Here I am with a snow day which means (with the holiday on Monday) that I have a four day weekend. Great, I thought, I will have plenty of time to write. A rare occurrence of late. The problem is that I have no ideas at all. My first thought was lame. Maybe I will do an All Star Team of players with winter-like names. J.T. Snow would play first. But that idea went down the drain after the former Giants' first baseman. But I did see a guy who piqued my interest that no one else will care about. His name was Charlie Snow and he played one game in 1874.

That's right, 1874. He played his one game for the Brooklyn Atlantics of the National Association, a league that is still debated about in its inclusion as a Major League Baseball league.

I could bore you with the history of the Brooklyn Atlantics, but if you were interested, you can check them out on their Wikipedia page. Suffice it to say that the Atlantics were the champions of baseball starting in 1859 and for several years that followed. But when the National Association began in 1869, the Atlantics did not join until 1870 and lost all their best players. By 1874, they were a bottom tier club. Tommy Bond, later a twice-40 game winner with the Boston Red Stockings started 55 games and went 22-32.

The team played in Capitoline Park in Brooklyn, New York in 1872. A drawing of the ball field is shown below:

The team moved to Union Park after.

One of the guys Tommy Bond might have thrown to was a catcher who played one game. His name was Charlie Snow, or Charles M. Snow. Snow was born in Lowell, Massachusetts on August 3, 1849. His parents, Benjamin and Laura Snow were both born in Maine.

By the 1860 census, Benjamin was out of the picture and Laura was a single mom listed as a housekeeper. The same was still true in 1870, but Laura, Charlie and sister Ida were now living in Boston.

Some time between that census in 1870 to 1874, Charlie made his way to Brooklyn. He lived there the rest of his life. Despite his one game with the Atlantics, his is listed in the 1880 census as a ticket agent and in all subsequent census records as a stationary salesman or the manager of a stationary store.

But he had that one game in 1874. His time on the field must have been brief that game because he only had one plate appearance. And, of course, Charlie Snow set the record for batting average that would be tied several times since because his one plate appearance resulted in a single.

That would be interesting enough as a curiosity. But his day in the field was also interesting. According to Charlie Snow's player page, in that one game played behind the plate, mostly likely catching Tommy Bond, Snow had three chances in the field and botched them all. That's right, he had three chances and made three errors. His fielding percentage was a big fat zero.

Snow lived in Brooklyn the rest of his life, as stated, and died in August of 1929 and is buried in Green-Wood Cemetery there. There is one game to his record. He was perfect in his career batting and totally imperfect with his fielding. Not much of a story here, but that's all I could come up with on this Charlie Snow Day.

Brantley extension shows changing MLB economy

Michael Brantley will not blow you away with his statistics. He is slightly above league average for his bat, a good base runner with just barely acceptable stolen base success and a league average fielder. And yet, in these days where the cost of a win keeps going up, the Cleveland Indians spent $25 million spread over four years and a fifth could cost them another $11 million to extend Brantley. And it still ends up being a good deal for the Indians. Say what!?

This is not to belittle Michael Brantley. He is a nice player. He is useful. He is better than replacement. But with Michael Bourn in center field, Brantley is a left fielder without power and decent on-base skills. He will give you about a .320 wOBA and a range of 1.5 to 2.0 of WAR. And that is worth $25 million? These days, it is actually worth more.

A win (the "w" in the WAR equation) is currently worth $5 million. That figure has risen from about $3.7 million in the not too distant past. Brantley had his typical season in 2013 and was worth 1.7 WAR. If you do the math, 1.7 times $5 million is $8.5 million in value. $25 million spread over four seasons is $6.22 million a season. So you see that despite Brantley not being a "star," he is now a bargain.

Even if you accept the team option of $11 million at the end of the deal for the fifth year, you still stay ahead. That would make the total deal worth $36 million over five years or $7.2 million per season and you are still ahead.

According to one projection, Brantley should be worth a total of 7.5 WAR over the next four years. He is entering his Age 27 season. Regression models show two peak years and then a gradual decline. 7.5 WAR is currently worth $37.5 million, or $12.5 million over what the Indians will be paying him.

If you add in the fifth year, then Brantley should compile 9.2 WAR or $46.2 million of value for $36 million the team will have to spend. That is a good deal no matter how you look at it. And even better, the deal will end before Brantley starts to really slide down over the regression cycle of his career.

One other point is overlooked here. The price of a win keeps going up. The four year contract that is already a bargain for the Indians becomes even more so if the cost of a win keeps rising the way it has.

It is understandable if the first reaction to the total cost of the contract for a player just north of average like Michael Brantley seems like a whole lot of money. But it is really a good deal for the Indians in today's market. We are just going to have to get used to meh players being this expensive.

Ranking Joe Mauer among first basemen

The Twins have seen enough of Joe Mauer getting dinged and dented behind the plate and will make him the team's permanent first baseman. While most will lament that Mauer's extraordinary contract makes sense only if he is an elite catcher, the money is not the point here. It is better for the Twins to get some value for their money with Mauer at first for years than to see him ground into dust within two or three years behind the plate. The question being pondered today is: What kind of value will Mauer bring to first base?

Fortunately, this is possible because over the years, Mauer has put in some time at first and has logged 471+ innings there. While the Twin City's star will lose his positional value as a catcher to one considered of little value at first, the extra playing time should close the gap pretty smartly.

Let's take a look at where he could stand around the Majors for first basemen. The starting point is defense.

One site gives his his time at first a 2.6 runs above average which translates to 8.6 runs over the course of 150 games. Another site puts that number at 3 and 7. Where would that rank among the first basemen of last season? Would you believe that the higher number would have ranked him second and the lower number fourth?

If you add in the positional part of the equation, his overall fielding worth as a first baseman will end up somewhere between the -2.5 to -4.0 range. That sounds awful, but for first basemen, it is very good.

Let's move to base running. The two big sites have a discrepancy of two runs. One says that the last three years have been at -1 while the other says it is a plus one. Average them together and you basically get a league average base runner. Where does that put him among first basemen based on last year?

Would you believe tied for fifth? Mauer has always been a great athlete and not your typical lead-pants catcher. Since first basemen are not known for their speed either, Mauer rates quite favorably.

Now everyone's favorite part--offense. If you throw out Mauer's first cup-of-coffee season and divide his batting runs above average by nine, Mauer has averaged 23.4 runs a season. But since he was mainly a catcher, he has averaged only 127 games a season.

Last season, Mauer compiled 25 runs (or 26 depending on the site) in only 113 games! With perhaps 150 games possible or more playing first base, would not 30 runs be a reasonable expectation? It could go higher. In 2012, Mauer played 147 games and compiled 31 runs. Thirty to thirty-five runs above average seems the sweet spot here.

If we stick with the lower number, that would place Mauer sixth in the Majors among last year's first basemen. Out of thirty teams, that's pretty darned good.

If you average the three skill sets together and do the division, Joe Mauer seems likely to finish as either the fourth or fifth best first basemen in baseball. If he has a really good and healthy season at the plate, he could end up as high as third.

Fourth seems the likely destination. Since two of the three projection systems I looked at for this piece have him at an estimated 5.5 WAR, then fourth seems very logical. And by the way, with the way a win is valued these days, that is a $26 to $28 million player and above his contract value ($23 million) for the season.

Pushing Joe Mauer to first base makes perfect sense for the Twins. He will still be the team's best player and they get to keep him in the lineup more often (barring some fluke injury). And contrary to all the naysayers, if Mauer hits like he always has or even slightly less, he will still earn his contract, first baseman or not.

Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at projections is a fun way to pass the time. Whether you do this for fantasy baseball purposes or--if you are like me and do not play fantasy--just for the fun of it, There is a lot of stuff to sort through and ponder. Projection systems are difficult to wrap your head around because some project actual playing time and others assume everyone is going to get 550 plate appearances. The latter, I suppose, is helpful in case a player breaks out in Spring Training and ends up as a starter (which rarely happens). What I thought I would do on this Sunday afternoon was cull through the various projection systems and determine who the five least valuable players would be in 2014.

Such an exercise is harder than you think. First, I have an artificial number of projected plate appearances of 450. I want to consider starters and not part-time players. Secondly, I have to figure out which of these players will actually get the playing time he is projected to obtain. For example, one of the lowest rated was Brett Wallace. But he was just DFA'd by the Astros and doesn't figure to catch on with a full-time gig anywhere else. And lastly, most of the projection systems have to agree on the lack of value a player will have in 2014.

After making my list, a discussion on the merits of each will occur. Think of it as sort of an over/under type discussion. For disclosure sake, I used PECOTA, Steamer, Oliver and Fans projections. I used MLB Depth Charts to confirm possible playing time.

Okay, the list:

1. Garrett Jones - Average Projection of 0.23 WAR
2. Raul Ibanez - Average Projection of 0.3 WAR
3. Mitch Moreland - Average Projection of 0.55 WAR
4. Adeiny Hechavarria - Average Projection of 0.65 WAR
5. Ryan Ludwick - Average Projection of 0.78 WAR

Garrett Jones - Jones holds one of the most extreme L/R splits in the Majors with less than a .600 OPS against left-handed pitching and in the high .878 against right-handed pitchers. He is penciled in as the platoon partner with Jeff Baker at first base. That would be a good thing for Jones as he is capable of hitting more than twenty homers. If he can field first base at near league-average level, he could score 2.0 in WAR. If he plays full time or spends any time in the outfield, all bets are off.

Raul Ibanez - The projections are logical since Ibanez is 41 years old and should never wear a glove. But the Angels only need him as a DH and have plenty of outfielders. So unlike last year in Seattle, Ibanez should only be a DH. That said, will he get 400 plate appearances? He won't if he is platooned (and he should be). Based on offense alone, he could get 1.5 in WAR.

Mitch Moreland - Moreland has no home at first base with the Rangers' addition of Prince Fielder. MLB Depth Charts has him listed as the Rangers' DH. Plus, he has spent plenty of time in the outfield too. Moreland's career doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I think these projections are pretty money.

Adeiny Hechavarria - Not only is his name a bear to spell, but he was awful for the Marlins last season. And still, he is pegged as their starting shortstop again this year. I don't think he will ever hit and a sub-.300 on-base percentage could be his norm. He gets bonus WAR points for his "important position" on the field, but doesn't score all that well as a fielder. If he reaches 1.0 in WAR in 2014, it will be a surprise.

Ryan Ludwick - I kept hearing last year that the Reds will be okay once Ludwick comes back from injury. And it made me scratch my head. Yeah, he had a pretty good 2012, but that is the anomaly for him over the past five seasons. The Reds have him penciled in as the starting left-fielder. I think it is a pie-in-the-sky scenario for them. He is not great in the field, and 2012 aside, his bat has been missing since his days with the Cardinals. I think his projection is fair. His positional ranking hurts him, his fielding hurts him and I don't see him repeating 2012 for offensive production.

There you have it. The projections have spoken. But of course, nobody knows how any player's season will go until he actually plays the games.