Post Number 3,500

Here I go again showing my psychological bias about round numbers. Three-thousand and five-hundred posts is not much different than 3,501 or 3,499. But we are who we are. And I suppose it is a milestone of sorts. I have been at this since 2003, which is ancient for baseball blog sites. I rarely write short posts. Heck, even my Game Picks posts average between 750 to 850 words each. That said, there are probably somewhere in the vicinity of 2,450,000 words among these things.

I have to do something to celebrate the number, so let's discover a few lists thanks to the pleasures of baseball-reference.com:

Players with more than 3,500 hits:

1. Pete Rose - 4256
2. Ty Cobb - 4189
3. Hank Aaron - 3771
4. Stan Musial -  3630
5. Tris Speaker - 3514

Pitchers with more than 3,500 strikeouts:

1. Nolan Ryan - 5714
2. Randy Johnson - 4875
3. Roger Clemens - 4672
4. Steve Carlton - 4136
5. Bert Blyleven - 3701
6. Tom Seaver - 3640
7. Don Sutton - 3574
8. Gaylord Perry - 3534
9. Walter Johnson - 3504

Games played:

1. Pete Rose - 3562

Sixty-four pitchers in history have given up more than 3,500 hits in their careers. Cy Young gave up 7,092, the most in history.

Pitchers who threw more than 3,500 pitches last season:

1. Justin Verlander - 3692
2. James Shields - 3657
3. C.J. Wilson - 3651
4. Jon Lester - 3560
5. Adam Wainwright - 3533
6. R. A. Dickey - 3505

Justin Verlander and Barry Zito have the most seasons of more than 3,500 pitches since 2000 with six each.

I hope you hang around for the next 3,500 posts. Thank you, everyone!

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 3, 2014

Hey! I figured out a way to get results with the Game of the Day: Pick the Yankees to lose! That worked. On the short schedule, I ended up with three incorrect. I did not think Alex Cobb would be beat by the Marlins, but he was. Shelby Miller was rolling along against the Royals and then had a lynning. And I guess I picked the Twins to win because my logic was colored by my dislike for Matt Garza. Hey, I'm human.

Back to a full schedule on Tuesday:

• The Red Sox over the Indians: The Indians have gotten back on track, but I do not trust T.J. House against the Red Sox. Yes, he is a lefty, which hurts Ortiz and others, but I think Jake Peavy has a good game and the Red Sox win a road game.
• The Athletics over the Yankees: The Yankees are melting fast and have looked terrible in recent days. Scott Kazmir has been pitching really well and Hiroki Kuroda doesn't seem to have much left in the tank.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Jordan Zimmermann has not been rock solid, but the Phillies are really struggling. David Buchanan brings some much needed youth but he doesn't blow people away and the Nats should score three or four to win.
• The Blue Jays over the Tigers: The Blue Jays get a real test heading into Detroit. And it all depends tonight on the fortunes of Drew Hutchison. He has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Drew so far this season. Anibal Sanchez is throwing the ball better but faces a tough lineup.
• The Braves over the Mariners: The Mariners are starting Erasmo Ramirez who hasn't pitched for them in a month. His last start was a quality one, but he does have an ERA of 6.00. I'm going with Gavin Floyd. Heaven help me there.
• The Reds over the Giants: When you have a hitters park like Great America Ballpark, then you like to take the guy with the greater stuff. Homer Bailey has more of that than Tim Lincecum does at this point in their careers.
• The Marlins over the Bay Rays: I hate long win streaks or long losing streaks. You have to predict when they will end. The Rays have lost seven straight and Chris Archer is a good pitcher. But he's been throwing a lot of pitches. Henderson Alvarez is great at home and has two scoreless games in a row. He doesn't go deep into games either and there is the rub there.
• The Royals over the Cardinals: I keep picking the Cardinals and they keep losing. And I keep picking against Jaime Garcia and he keeps pitching well. I guess something has to give there. James Shields big problem is homers and the Cardinals do not hit many of them, so he should have a good night.
• The Rangers over the Orioles: Oh gosh, I am picking Joe Saunders to win. Am I feeling okay? Ubaldo Jimenez in Texas with that hot air and jet stream does not seem like a good pick.
• The Mets over the Cubs: Two frustrating young pitchers go at it in Zack Wheeler and Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta. The Mets are flush after their series with the Phillies and Wheeler was impressive in his last start. So let's go that way.
• The Astros over the Angels: I love Collin McHugh, but the Angels beat him last time out by not allowing any Astros runs. C.J. Wilson has shut down ability, so this might be a good pick. The thing is: I don't know if Mike Trout will be playing or not.
• The Brewers over the Twins: Yovani Gallardo at home? Yeah, that's a no-brainer for me. The Twins are pitching Samuel Deduno again and I wonder why they are sticking with that.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Chase Anderson is 3-0, but he is heading into no-mans-land of Coors Field. Jorge De La Rosa, on the other hand, knows how to pitch there.
• The Dodgers over the White Sox: Jose Abreu picked up where he left off last night with another homer, but the Sox still lost. Dan Haren is not as good as Kershaw, but he should have enough at home to win against Hector Noesi, who has been surprisingly decent.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Padres: The Padres are giving the ball to Jesse Hahn, the team's best pitching prospect. Hahn will make his MLB debut but is making a big jump from Double-A and doesn't have much reps even there. He has pitched well at every level. But the Majors is a different game. Gerrit Cole should win this one.

Yesterday: 5-3, June: 14-9, Games of the Day: 27-32, Season: 470-386

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 2, 2014

June began with a 9-6 day and I would be okay with that except the Game of the Day pick was incorrect...AGAIN! I figured Zack Greinke was pretty much a lock at home. I figured wrong. Every other ace won. But not Zack Greinke. There is no light at the end of that feature's tunnel. And the Yankees pick was correct for eight innings. Unfortunately, they play nine innings. What a spectacular blown save that was.

Monday is a short day with only eight games on the schedule. Here are the picks:

• The Indians over the Red Sox: This pick only works if Justin Masterson has a good day. He has had some good games against Boston over the years and some bad ones. He is the key. John Lackey has been awfully good, but less so on the road. Masterson has led the league the last two years in hitting batters. That aught to be fun.
• The Mets over the Phillies: The game will probably go into extra innings again. Heh. I like Bartolo Colon over Roberto Hernandez here.
• The Rays over the Marlins: The Rays went zero for the weekend, so you just know they are going to win today. That's how it always works. Alex Cobb came back dominant and should be today in that big ballpark. Randy Wolf? Not so much.
• The Twins over the Brewers: Kyle Gibson has been very good this season. Matt Garza is 2-4. So are the Brewers losing you wins too, Matt? Maybe you lose your own wins, son.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: Danny Duffy has the stuff to do well. But he cannot put it together as a starter. I'm not sure why. Watch him do so tonight as I pick against him. I picked him last time and he was bombed. Shelby Miller goes for the Cards.
• The Dodgers over the White Sox: Jose Abreu should be back. Jose Quintana is better than people think and none of that will matter if Clayton Kershaw is on his game. He hasn't always been since he got back though.
• The Pirates over the Padres: This might be a reaction to the last time I picked Tim Stauffer to win. I've always liked him, so I picked him and he did not get out of the first inning. Charlie Morton is a better pitcher than I've ever given him credit for, but I still don't inwardly believe it.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Mariners over the Yankees: Felix Hernandez loves pitching against the Yankees and isn't it kind of the Mariners to save him up for the makeup game today? The Yankees are slumping at the plate and David Phelps can't match zeroes with the King.

Yesterday: 9-6, June: 9-6, Games of the Day: 26-32, Season: 465-383

Has Maddon Magic run out in St. Pete?

This weekend's series against Boston has been an embarrassing series for the Tampa Bay Rays. After trying to send a message to the Boston Red Sox, all that has really occurred is getting obliterated all weekend and falling further away from being relevant. Joe Maddon still does the cutesy things to motivate his team. They still have the dress up days and silly stunts in the clubhouse. But how well do they play when the team is now nine games under .500?

The Rays have fallen on hard times before and have come roaring back by the end of the season. So you have to keep sticking a fork in them to see if they are really dead. But think about this for a minute, the Rays currently have the worst record in the American League. Yup, it's true. Even Houston has a better record.

The math still works as it is early enough in the season. I still think it is going to take 90 wins to win the AL East. If that is the case, the Rays need to go 67-40 the rest of the season. That is a .626 pace and not inconceivable. They will, however, continue to batter a tough division and have to leapfrog four other teams.

So what is wrong with the Rays? Everyone knows that injuries to the starting rotation have taken what was a strength to a weakness. Jake Odorizzi has not gotten the job done. Erik Bedard is on the downside of his career and Cesar Ramos was a disaster. Alex Cobb is now back and that helps, but David Price is 4-4 and despite impressive strikeout to walk ratios and a good FIP, has turned into a homer machine.

A higher ERA than FIP is a theme for the Rays' starters. Matt Moore and Alex Cobb are the only two starting pitchers whose ERA is outperforming FIPs. For the pitching staff as a whole, once runners get on base, the Rays are having trouble preventing them from scoring.

The relief pitching rates as the worst in baseball right now, dead last of thirty teams. After years of having great years by rent-a-closers, Grant Balfour is hardly a fast and true stopper. If I were to ask you which rate per nine innings was 8.2 per nine for Balfour, would you guess his walk rate? Yeesh. His strikeout rate is only 6.4 per nine. That's not good.

The Rays have only two relievers with positive fWAR, Jake McGee and Juan Oviedo.

The offense is struggling too. As has happened all too often in recent years for the Rays, big time prospects sort of fizzle in their second years with the club. There was Upton and Jennings and so forth. Now we have Wil Myers who has an OPS of .666 and a wRC+ of 92. And he just hurt his wrist.

Even Evan (type that ten times fast) Longoria only has a 96 wRC+. The catching offense has resembled the Yankees of 2013. Yeah, it's been that bad. Jose Molina might have finally reached his shelf life after threatening to do so for years. And Ryan Hanigan hasn't been great either. They both still offer something on defense, but the offense has been a black hole.

The Rays are currently 13th in the American League in both slugging and OPS and, surprisingly, have really struggled on the road. The only offense player having a very good season is Matt Joyce and he platoons and sits against left-handed pitching.

There have been times in the past few years where it seemed the Rays were dead in the water only to pull the old rope-a-dope and end up in the thick of things. It is hard to see that kind of comeback from the Rays this season. The worst record in the American League might be more than even Joe Maddon Magic can overcome.

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 1, 2014

Saturday's results were so typical for the month of May here. I actually had a good day with a 10-5 record. But, of course, the Game of the Day feature was incorrect. Good riddance May and hello June!

Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the Rockies: The Indians might as well sweep it out after having a very good weekend against a team that cannot seem to hit outside of Colorado. Josh Tomlin isn't great, but he should be better than Jhoulys Chacin.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Remember the Bugs Bunny cartoons when a character breaks up into chunks and falls apart after trying to catch Bugs? That is how I picture Phil Hughes coming back to Yankee Stadium. Hughes has done well for the Twins. But his return to the Bronx will remind him why he left. The only problem is Chase Whitley isn't great either.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: Mark Buehrle is going to fall back to his four runs a game kind of guy sooner or later. But I have been riding him like a donkey all season. And the Blue Jays will be all over Jeremy Guthrie.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Aaron Harang is tough to pick against this season. But so is Nathan Eovaldi at home. Giancarlo Stanton has been quiet the last couple of games. Time for him to go boom.
• The Mets over the Phillies: I like any left-hander against the Phillies and Jon Niese is a good one. He has already pitched well against the Phillies twice this season. Might as well make it thrice. Cole Hamels again is the bad luck loser. Neither team will have much of a bullpen.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: The Red Sox will continue to bury the Rays, especially without Wil Myers in the lineup. Jon Lester over Erik Bedard.
• The Nationals over the Rangers: This is an interesting game. Here is how I see it going down. The Nats score two early runs on Yu Darvish before he settles down. Then Tanner Roark makes them stand up. That's how I see it happening.
• The Orioles over the Astros: George Springer has gone cold against Baltimore, Nelson Cruz continues to be amazing. The Orioles get to old friend, Scott Feldman and Wei-Yin Chen has a good day.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This pick was wrong yesterday as the Cubs spanked the Brewers hard. Today, Jeff Samardzija and Kyle Lohse cancel each other out and the Brewers win late.
• The White Sox over the Padres: I have been wrong on this pick both days they played together. Today feels pretty safe as Chris Sale far outshines Eric Stults.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: The teams have split in this series and I have picked the Cards every day. Today Lance Lynn faces Tim Hudson and this is why I think the Cards win. Lynn should be good and Hudson will face a team very willing to go the other way with his softer tosses.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The Angels had one of the biggest meltdowns in the history of meltdowns yesterday. They gave up ten runs in the 7th and 8th innings. Pathetic. Mike Trout has a sore back and Sonny Gray is going to bury the Angels and Jered Weaver.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Wade Miley hasn't been bad his last three or so starts. But his lefty tosses will face a largely right-handed lineup that has been hot lately. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on Alfredo Simon, but it hasn't yet.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Yeah, this was wrong yesterday, but then I was depending on Smyly. Max Scherzer is another problem for the Mariners. And Roenis Elias would have to have an awful big day to shut down the Tigers.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Pirates: We are back to good Hanley Ramirez and when he is good, he is awesome. Besides, Zack Greinke is virtually a lock at home and Edinson Volquez isn't a lock anywhere.

Yesterday: 10-5, May final: 223-203, Games of the Day: 26-31, Season: 456-377

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 31, 2014

Is it progress when you have your third bad night in a row but finally get a Game of the Day pick right? I guess that's progress. But I'm still fairly frustrated. Obviously, I am in a terrible rut and cannot seem to dig my way out of it. I had one 10-4 day on Tuesday, but starting with Memorial Day, on days other than Tuesday, I am 21-34. Unreal.

All I can do is keep plugging along. At least May is on its last day. That has to be good since the month has been so crappy for the picks. Oh, and I did an audit to make sure I have been doing the math correctly and found two more losses that I had to add to my season total. Lovely.

Saturday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Rangers: Doug Fister has started the season with only one walk in 23+ innings. He has three straight very good appearances. He is going to lift these Nationals. Nick Tepesch has been pitching well too, but the Rangers lose a hitter in the lineup.
• The Yankees over the Twins: The Yankees are making a habit of making lousy pitchers look good. They should be all over Kevin Correia, but will they be? How good will Masahiro Tanaka be finally getting a day game in nice weather?
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: You have two young arms in this one. Aaron Brooks is making his first MLB start. He pitched once in relief and got hit hard. He is not a strikeout guy who has lately found some command in the last year or so. Marcus Stroman, on the other hand, is a big arm also making his first MLB start. So I'm going that way.
• The White Sox over the Padres: This pick did not go well yesterday, but I am stubborn that way. Andre Rienzo has a good record and up and down performances. Tyson Ross looks great for one start and terrible on others. Bottom line? Anything can happen in this one.
• The Indians over the Rockies: Trevor Bauer has come into his own and is finally where he needs to be as a pitcher. Franklin Morales, on the other hand, has been abysmal. The Rockies on the road are not the same team.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: I like Michael Wacha way more than I like Yusmeiro Petit. And look out world, here comes Oscar Taveras.
• The Phillies over the Mets: Jacob deGrom has been very good but has been snake bit with no run support. Kyle Kendrick was great his last time out. The battle for last place continues.
• The Braves over the Marlins: I haven't picked a visiting team to win yet, so this one looks the most likely. Jacob Turner doesn't thrill me and Ervin Santana will enjoy the bigger ballpark.
• The Astros over the Orioles: Why the heck not!? Go Astros, go! Dallas Keuchel has been very good by throwing more strikes. Chris Tillman has been the O's best pitcher, but since his injury, has not thrown a good game.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: The Brewers are back after scuffling a few weeks. The Cubs have gone back to not hitting. Jason Hammel is pitching for his next job and should be bested by Wily Peralta.
• The Dodgers over the Pirates: I'm getting really nervous about picking all these home teams. But Hyun-jin Ryu is just to hard not to take at home. Brandon Cumpton is pretty good though.
• The Red Sox over the Rays: If the Rays wanted to end up on the higher end of the moral story yesterday, they had to win. And they didn't. Thus, the Red Sox will feel like the martyrs and on the high side of the narrative. The Rays are a last place team and Jake Odorizzi is not helping. The Red Sox will win despite Rubby De La Rosa starting--a kid with a big arm and no idea where the ball is going. Oh, and I hate A.J. Pierzynski with pretty much all I am.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The Angels are not going to do anything against the A's. I could see that from last night's game. Tommy Milone has rediscovered himself and is pitching really well. I like Tyler Skaggs too, but the A's are just too much.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: For the second straight night, the Reds are going to take it to the D-backs behind Johnny Cueto. Brandon McCarthy has a great Twitter account and a great wife, but he just can't seem to win.

And the Game of the Day

• The Tigers over the Mariners: If Robinson Cano is out of the lineup, forget about it. Chris Young is tall, but throws as hard as me. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly has been awful, but watch him have a good game in this one.

Yesterday: 6-9, May: 213-198, Games of the Day: 26-30, Season: 446-372