MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 1, 2014

Saturday's results were so typical for the month of May here. I actually had a good day with a 10-5 record. But, of course, the Game of the Day feature was incorrect. Good riddance May and hello June!

Sunday's picks:

• The Indians over the Rockies: The Indians might as well sweep it out after having a very good weekend against a team that cannot seem to hit outside of Colorado. Josh Tomlin isn't great, but he should be better than Jhoulys Chacin.
• The Yankees over the Twins: Remember the Bugs Bunny cartoons when a character breaks up into chunks and falls apart after trying to catch Bugs? That is how I picture Phil Hughes coming back to Yankee Stadium. Hughes has done well for the Twins. But his return to the Bronx will remind him why he left. The only problem is Chase Whitley isn't great either.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: Mark Buehrle is going to fall back to his four runs a game kind of guy sooner or later. But I have been riding him like a donkey all season. And the Blue Jays will be all over Jeremy Guthrie.
• The Marlins over the Braves: Aaron Harang is tough to pick against this season. But so is Nathan Eovaldi at home. Giancarlo Stanton has been quiet the last couple of games. Time for him to go boom.
• The Mets over the Phillies: I like any left-hander against the Phillies and Jon Niese is a good one. He has already pitched well against the Phillies twice this season. Might as well make it thrice. Cole Hamels again is the bad luck loser. Neither team will have much of a bullpen.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: The Red Sox will continue to bury the Rays, especially without Wil Myers in the lineup. Jon Lester over Erik Bedard.
• The Nationals over the Rangers: This is an interesting game. Here is how I see it going down. The Nats score two early runs on Yu Darvish before he settles down. Then Tanner Roark makes them stand up. That's how I see it happening.
• The Orioles over the Astros: George Springer has gone cold against Baltimore, Nelson Cruz continues to be amazing. The Orioles get to old friend, Scott Feldman and Wei-Yin Chen has a good day.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This pick was wrong yesterday as the Cubs spanked the Brewers hard. Today, Jeff Samardzija and Kyle Lohse cancel each other out and the Brewers win late.
• The White Sox over the Padres: I have been wrong on this pick both days they played together. Today feels pretty safe as Chris Sale far outshines Eric Stults.
• The Cardinals over the Giants: The teams have split in this series and I have picked the Cards every day. Today Lance Lynn faces Tim Hudson and this is why I think the Cards win. Lynn should be good and Hudson will face a team very willing to go the other way with his softer tosses.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The Angels had one of the biggest meltdowns in the history of meltdowns yesterday. They gave up ten runs in the 7th and 8th innings. Pathetic. Mike Trout has a sore back and Sonny Gray is going to bury the Angels and Jered Weaver.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: Wade Miley hasn't been bad his last three or so starts. But his lefty tosses will face a largely right-handed lineup that has been hot lately. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on Alfredo Simon, but it hasn't yet.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Yeah, this was wrong yesterday, but then I was depending on Smyly. Max Scherzer is another problem for the Mariners. And Roenis Elias would have to have an awful big day to shut down the Tigers.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Pirates: We are back to good Hanley Ramirez and when he is good, he is awesome. Besides, Zack Greinke is virtually a lock at home and Edinson Volquez isn't a lock anywhere.

Yesterday: 10-5, May final: 223-203, Games of the Day: 26-31, Season: 456-377

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 6, 2014

The good news was that I finally had a Game of the Day pick go my way. The bad news was that a lot of the rest of the picks messed up. The biggest thing that hurt me yesterday was the three extra-inning games. All three ended up on the opposite side of what I predicted. Now that is lousy luck right there.

Tuesday returns to a full slate of games and here are the picks:

• The Dodgers over the Nationals: I do not usually like to pick a pitcher coming off the disabled list. But Clayton Kershaw is no ordinary pitcher. And it adds to my thinking that Blake Treinen is making his first MLB start for the Nats.
• The Indians over the Twins: Sam Deduno can be pretty good at times and the Twins are playing better than the Indians. But I'm going with Josh Tomlin being able to go deeper in the game than Deduno.
• The Giants over the Pirates: The Pirates are finally starting to hit and their pitching falls apart. Both teams will have tired bullpens. Therefore, I am going with Tim Hudson over Charlie Morton.
• The Phillies over the Blue Jays: Cole Hamels has gone 6-18 since I predicted he would win the Cy Yong Award before the 2013 season. Woof. And Drew Hutchison has very good stuff. But this is one of those trap picks. I can feel it.
• The Tigers over the Astros: It does not bother me to pick a guy, Robbie Ray, making his MLB debut tonight because the Tigers are on fire and the Astros are cold as ice. Brett Oberholtzer can't seem to buy a win or a run, or anything from his team. Rays' minor league K/9 rate is down, but the lefty has suddenly found great control.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: I like Chris Tillman a lot and he can be a shut down guy at times. But I'm going with Chris Archer who has been hard to beat at home. On the road is another story, but at home, he's been very good.
• The Red Sox over the Reds: There is enough red in this game to make Senator McCarthy blanch. Felix Doubront is fighting for his rotation spot at Fenway, which is the good news. Homer Bailey is hit or miss...literally.
• The Marlins over the Mets: You cannot pick against the Marlins at home right now, can you? I know it has to end some time. How long has this home stand been? It seems like they have been home for a month. Henderson Alvarez over Bartolo Colon.
• The Cardinals over the Braves: Gosh, the Braves have gone cold. Having Gavin Floyd back to start this game does not fill me with confidence for them. But Tyler Lyons doesn't do much for me either.
• The Cubs over the White Sox: This pick did not do much for me yesterday. And I have picked twice in a row against Edwin Jackson and was wrong both times. And the White Sox are starting Hector Noesi, who has been punted by two teams already this season.
• The Rockies over the Rangers: The Rangers are suddenly kind of a mess. And they are not having fun at Coors Field. That should continue today. Robbie Ross (it must be Robbie Day) will not get it done but Juan Nicasio will.
• The Angels over the Yankees: The Yankees are in a really bad stretch. Nothing they seem to do is working. Hiroki Kuroda hasn't been very good. C.J. Wilson handled the Yankees easily the last time he faced them.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Jesse Chavez needs to bounce back from his last start and being at home should help that happen. Roenis Elias looked great against the Yankees, but every pitcher has looked great against the Yankees.
• The Padres over the Royals: Being a fan of the Royals has to be the most frustrating thing ever. The way they finished the season last year and then stumbling and bumbling this year? Sheesh. Robbie Erlin (I told you it was Robbie Day) over Jeremy Guthrie.

And the Game of the Day

• The Brewers over the Diamondbacks: The Brewers just keep rolling along and the Diamondbacks keep rolling under. Marco Estrada has pitched well. Josh Collmenter would not be a starter I would ever pick to win a game.

Yesterday: 6-7, May: 37-32, Games of the Day: 15-17, Season: 270-206

Queasy about Cleveland's pitching

The Cleveland Indians made a nice early run in 2011. After flying out of the gate with an 18-8 record in April, the team sat on a 32-20 record by the end of May. The team was in first place until June 10 and stayed among the division leaders and even grabbed it by a game as late as July 22. Their big play at the trade deadline for Ubaldo Jimenez did not pan out as they hoped and the team played sub-.500 baseball from June through the end of the season. The Tigers zoomed past them and never looked back. Given Ubaldo's track record, you could perhaps think that his 2011 season was a blip. But a poor spring and rumors of his attitude and diminished radar gun readings make you wonder. And he isn't the only pitcher suspect this spring. Of course, spring baseball doesn't count and we can't read too much into it. Plus, the team plays its spring games in Arizona where the balls fly without much hindrance. How much concern should there be?

The Indians' best pitcher this spring has been newcomer, Derek Lowe. Lowe is trying himself to overcome one of his worst seasons ever last season with the Braves. So his spring success is encouraging. But every other projected starter has struggled this spring. Well, check that. Jeanmar Gomez has had a terrific spring. But is he really their fifth starter? Perhaps. Gomez has only started once this spring in his four appearances while guys like Josh Tomlin, Kevin Slowey, Jimenez and David Huff have started four or five games each. Lowe has had success in his career and Jimenez is still considered a great arm. But do the rest of those rotation options give us any kind of optimism. Not really.

After looking at the Baseball Prospectus depth chart for the team, the projections are not appetizing. Justin Masterson should be better than the 3.99 ERA BP projects for him and better than the 1.7 WARP that sight predicts. Take the upside there. But BP's projection for Ubaldo Jimenez comes in with an ERA of 3.47 and a WARP of 2.8. Judging on the last year, you'd have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The Indians would be thrilled with that Ubaldo. Don't count on them.

Derek Lowe is projected poorly, most likely based on last season and moving from the National League to the American League. His projection of a 4.62 ERA and a measly 0.2 WARP are very pessimistic. Lowe should have a decent season left in him and beat those numbers.

Josh Tomlin is projected for a 4.17 ERA with a WARP of 1.1. The former seems optimistic and the latter perhaps a bit pessimistic. His sinker is a good one but it all depends on his balls in play. The expectation here is an ERA closer to the 4.50 mark. He'll have his fair share of good outings though. 

BP's projections for Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff are gruesome to look at. Both are projected with negative WARPs. It's hard to argue with either projection. BP rates Kevin Slowey higher, but that's hard to justify after seeing what happened to him last season.

What we are seeing here is an experiment. The Indians are going almost entirely with extreme ground ball pitchers. Such pitchers can get "hot" depending on where their ground balls are hit. But this rotation's success will likely revolve around the type of season Ubaldo Jimenez has. If the 2010 version shows up, then some of the other weaker links are less exposed. But if the 2011 version is what they get, then this rotation blows up.

Baseball Prospectus predicts the Indians will win 80 games just like last season. But this rotation leaves much of a feeling of queasiness. If Lowe bounces back and Masterson continues to grow and Jimenez can get his stuff together, this team could win 85 games pretty easily. But if two of the three of those scenarios do not develop, this team could struggle to win 75 games in 2012.

The Fan Was Shouting At His Screen Again

Ah, the life of a Fan. Watched Josh Tomlin of the Cleveland Indians make his major league debut against the New York Yankees. In a nice, feel-good story, Tomlin got the win going seven innings. He only gave up three hits and didn't walk anybody. That's the feel-good part. The Fan shouting at the screen part was watching Yankee batters take meatballs for strikes only to let Tomlin make his pitch with the count in his favor...that was the bad part.

It's enough to drive a Fan crazy. In Rob Neyer's blog today, he quoted another writer whose theory on why this is a pitcher's year is that major league hitters are taking strike one which puts them immediately in a pitcher's count and the pitchers are throwing first pitch strikes. Exactly. Good call. And the Yankees are the de facto poster boys for such activity. The two biggest antagonists? A-Rod and Brett Gardner.

As you probably know, A-Rod is trying to hit his 600th homer. That's one reason why the Fan has been watching every Yankee game to try to catch history. Tonight against Tomlin, A-Rod let at least four glorious meatballs (chest high) go right by him for called strikes. Two were hanging sliders. And the others were batting practice fastballs. Tomlin had a nice game. But he isn't overpowering by any means. He threw strikes and he kept the Yankees off balance. His most effective weapon was throwing that first pitch strike.

This Fan is no expert or he would be on the field playing. But golly geez, it sure looked like A-Rod could have pounded those pitches. Putting himself behind in the count on all occasions, he had to hit the pitcher's pitch, which meant lunging for outside corner strikes and hitting them weakly.

Brett Gardner is simply maddening. He never swings at the first strike and rarely swings at the second one. It seems he is always in the hole in the count, which makes it amazing how well his average and on base percentage have held up. Tuesday night against Tomlin was no different. Belt-high and downtown Broadway strikes and Gardner just stood there looking just like always. And like A-Rod, he gets in a pitcher's count and has to swing at anything close and makes easy outs.

ARRRRGGGHHH! It's enough to drive a Fan to the basement to write a blog. Good for Tomlin though. Might as well exploit a weakness and keep yourself in counts that benefit your own pitches. Smart.