The New York Yankees won the first two games in their series against the Tampa Bay Rays and built their largest lead of the year in the division. They lost a tough game on Saturday on a walk-off homer. Hey, that happens. The team still had a chance of leaving that house of horrors called, Tropicana Field, of taking three of four games. Instead, Aaron Boone said it was a good time to rest his two most reliable and versatile hitters (and All Stars), DJ LaMahieu and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees scored one run against Charlie Morton and settled for a split. Instead of stepping on the Rays' jugular, the Yankees stuck to their every game is not important way of life.
I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?
I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.
The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.
Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran. Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.
One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.
I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.
The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.
Monday, July 08, 2019
Tuesday, July 02, 2019
Every Day Is Gleyber Day
The news that New York Yankees' radio announcer, John Sterling, was taking a few games off for the first time in 31 years prompted a revisit of Sterling's wonderful (to me) home run calls. One of my favorites is, "It's Gleyber Day!" One of the most overlooked factors of this amazing Yankees' season is that every day for the Yankees is Gleyber Day. Gleyber Torres has been so steady and such a rock for a kid that is 22-years-old, he has been an unsung superglue for his team.
Rightly so, DJ LeMahieu has been getting most of the attention along with the All-Star season of Gary Sanchez. Luke Voit has shared a spotlight as has Gio Urshela and others that filled in during the injury-plagued first half. In fact, the injuries have been the number one story along with how well the team has done despite them.
And now, while DJLM is still cruising along and is one of two Yankee All-Star starters, the focus of attention (again, rightly so) has been the return of Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks. Add in some concerns about the pitching and the expectation that Brian Cashman will again come to the rescue with some help there, and there is little ink left for anything else.
But let's catch our breath a second and consider the continuing maturity of a very young cog of the Yankees' success: Gleyber Torres. After all, Torres is second on the team in Wins Above Replacement behind only DJLM (and ahead of Sanchez). And to show you how he seems to get lost in the fray, Torres has been batting seventh and eighth in the lineup!
The overshadowing of Gleyber Torres began in the second half of last season. In the spring, he was the most anticipated call-up for the Yankees in decades. He was on everyone's mind ever since Cashman obtained him as part of the Aroldis Chapman-to-the-Cubs trade. And then it finally happened and everyone was so excited!
Torres continued to be a focus as his call-up was followed by spectacular play so that after the first half, he was sitting with a .905 OPS to go with 15 homers, a triple and ten doubles. His smile was infectious and his play in the field was, at times, jaw-dropping.
But then he got hurt and missed most of July which is exactly when Miguel Andujar got hot and stayed hot for the rest of the season. Gleyber Torres returned but was not the same player and I believe he played August and September not in full health. His struggles included what looked like some lack of concentration on some plays in the field and had less joy in his countenance. Andujar was the new darling.
If you look at Torres' first half last season and first half this season, there are similarities. His first half led to the aforementioned .905 OPS in 2018 and his first half of 2019 shows him at .913. But if you look closely, there are a lot of improvements. The first, of course, is his fielding. I believe his non-healthy second half last year led to some artificially low defensive numbers. This year, whether at short or at second, he has been consistently good. He was much better than expected at short while filling in there for Didi!
But his batting has also shown improvement. His strikeout percentage is down while his walk rate is up. His ISO is up while showing a slight improvement in Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP). His hard contact rate has improved as has his home run to fly ball rate. Last year, according to Fangraphs.com, he had negative scores against sliders, cutters, and split-fingered pitches. This year, Torres does not have a negative score on any pitch.
Fangraphs also shows that his contact rate has increased and his swinging strike rate has decreased. These things all point to improvement and from all accounts, Torres is focused on being the best player he can be. So I do not believe we've seen anything yet from Gleyber Torres.
Of all 19-22-year-old players in the league, Gleyber Torres ranks second in the American League in WAR behind Rafael Devers and sixth overall in the Majors. There are a lot of exciting young players in baseball right now and Gleyber Torres is one of them. And there is no reason that he cannot get much better than finishing his first full season on pace for over five wins above replacement.
And an important thing to note: as much as we all love Aaron Judge, Judge's window of stardom is a lot shorter because he is five years older than Torres. He may be overlooked now, but Gleyber Torres will become a face of this Yankee franchise for years to come.
Rightly so, DJ LeMahieu has been getting most of the attention along with the All-Star season of Gary Sanchez. Luke Voit has shared a spotlight as has Gio Urshela and others that filled in during the injury-plagued first half. In fact, the injuries have been the number one story along with how well the team has done despite them.
And now, while DJLM is still cruising along and is one of two Yankee All-Star starters, the focus of attention (again, rightly so) has been the return of Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks. Add in some concerns about the pitching and the expectation that Brian Cashman will again come to the rescue with some help there, and there is little ink left for anything else.
But let's catch our breath a second and consider the continuing maturity of a very young cog of the Yankees' success: Gleyber Torres. After all, Torres is second on the team in Wins Above Replacement behind only DJLM (and ahead of Sanchez). And to show you how he seems to get lost in the fray, Torres has been batting seventh and eighth in the lineup!
The overshadowing of Gleyber Torres began in the second half of last season. In the spring, he was the most anticipated call-up for the Yankees in decades. He was on everyone's mind ever since Cashman obtained him as part of the Aroldis Chapman-to-the-Cubs trade. And then it finally happened and everyone was so excited!
Torres continued to be a focus as his call-up was followed by spectacular play so that after the first half, he was sitting with a .905 OPS to go with 15 homers, a triple and ten doubles. His smile was infectious and his play in the field was, at times, jaw-dropping.
But then he got hurt and missed most of July which is exactly when Miguel Andujar got hot and stayed hot for the rest of the season. Gleyber Torres returned but was not the same player and I believe he played August and September not in full health. His struggles included what looked like some lack of concentration on some plays in the field and had less joy in his countenance. Andujar was the new darling.
If you look at Torres' first half last season and first half this season, there are similarities. His first half led to the aforementioned .905 OPS in 2018 and his first half of 2019 shows him at .913. But if you look closely, there are a lot of improvements. The first, of course, is his fielding. I believe his non-healthy second half last year led to some artificially low defensive numbers. This year, whether at short or at second, he has been consistently good. He was much better than expected at short while filling in there for Didi!
But his batting has also shown improvement. His strikeout percentage is down while his walk rate is up. His ISO is up while showing a slight improvement in Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP). His hard contact rate has improved as has his home run to fly ball rate. Last year, according to Fangraphs.com, he had negative scores against sliders, cutters, and split-fingered pitches. This year, Torres does not have a negative score on any pitch.
Fangraphs also shows that his contact rate has increased and his swinging strike rate has decreased. These things all point to improvement and from all accounts, Torres is focused on being the best player he can be. So I do not believe we've seen anything yet from Gleyber Torres.
Of all 19-22-year-old players in the league, Gleyber Torres ranks second in the American League in WAR behind Rafael Devers and sixth overall in the Majors. There are a lot of exciting young players in baseball right now and Gleyber Torres is one of them. And there is no reason that he cannot get much better than finishing his first full season on pace for over five wins above replacement.
And an important thing to note: as much as we all love Aaron Judge, Judge's window of stardom is a lot shorter because he is five years older than Torres. He may be overlooked now, but Gleyber Torres will become a face of this Yankee franchise for years to come.
Friday, June 28, 2019
All Star Starters and The London Games
The ballots are in and the fans have selected the starters for the 2019 MLB All Star Game. I have to admit that I was wrong about the new balloting procedure. Though I am still uncomfortable with people being allowed to vote multiple times in the opening round, the fans did seem to do a great job with this year's selections. There was only one starter selection I did not agree with and even that one is defensible.
That one pick is the National League first baseman. I had Josh Bell and Peter Alonso ahead of Freddie Freeman. But you would have to think that both of them will be selected as reserves. The choice of Freeman is very defensible as he is having another great season and his fWAR is right in the ballpark as the others. A quick study shows me that Alonso should have been given the nod.
I am also very pleased that the managers have been relieved of the ability to pick the pitching staff. It was so embarrassing the way the managers would stock the All Star staff with four or five of their own pitchers (or more). Let's hope the league office does a better job of taking the pitchers having the best year.
My only wonder when it comes to pitching is that there are so many different roles now. There are closers, starters, openers, setup guys and on and on it goes. Do you pick one from each category? Or do you stick with starters and closers with the best setup guy sprinkled in?
Anyway, the point is that despite my ferocious objection to the process, the process led to the correct results. Congratulation, MLB!
That is the positive side of this post. On the negative side, I really have to admit that I hate this London Series. While a nice way to promote baseball worldwide, the timing just sort of stinks. For the participating teams (the Yankees and Red Sox this season and the Cubs and Nationals next), it is a lot to ask. Baseball players are creatures of habits and routines. To take them out of their natural rhythm is not ideal.
The other problem for me is that the games will be played on artificial turf. And since the turf cannot be nailed down (to not hurt the soccer field), there is a greater risk of injury. The sun field looks difficult and the dimensions are sort of cartoonish. A short center field and about ten acres of foul grounds really do not represent MLB standards.
I am consistent at least. I hate when teams start the season in Japan and I hate a London Series plop in the middle of a season. And to continue the trifecta, I hate that World Baseball thing too that breaks up Spring Training and puts players at risk.
If you want to promote MLB and baseball, reboot the barnstorming days and take recently retired stars overseas to promote the sport. The risks are much greater than the rewards.
That is my two cents anyway...
That one pick is the National League first baseman. I had Josh Bell and Peter Alonso ahead of Freddie Freeman. But you would have to think that both of them will be selected as reserves. The choice of Freeman is very defensible as he is having another great season and his fWAR is right in the ballpark as the others. A quick study shows me that Alonso should have been given the nod.
I am also very pleased that the managers have been relieved of the ability to pick the pitching staff. It was so embarrassing the way the managers would stock the All Star staff with four or five of their own pitchers (or more). Let's hope the league office does a better job of taking the pitchers having the best year.
My only wonder when it comes to pitching is that there are so many different roles now. There are closers, starters, openers, setup guys and on and on it goes. Do you pick one from each category? Or do you stick with starters and closers with the best setup guy sprinkled in?
Anyway, the point is that despite my ferocious objection to the process, the process led to the correct results. Congratulation, MLB!
That is the positive side of this post. On the negative side, I really have to admit that I hate this London Series. While a nice way to promote baseball worldwide, the timing just sort of stinks. For the participating teams (the Yankees and Red Sox this season and the Cubs and Nationals next), it is a lot to ask. Baseball players are creatures of habits and routines. To take them out of their natural rhythm is not ideal.
The other problem for me is that the games will be played on artificial turf. And since the turf cannot be nailed down (to not hurt the soccer field), there is a greater risk of injury. The sun field looks difficult and the dimensions are sort of cartoonish. A short center field and about ten acres of foul grounds really do not represent MLB standards.
I am consistent at least. I hate when teams start the season in Japan and I hate a London Series plop in the middle of a season. And to continue the trifecta, I hate that World Baseball thing too that breaks up Spring Training and puts players at risk.
If you want to promote MLB and baseball, reboot the barnstorming days and take recently retired stars overseas to promote the sport. The risks are much greater than the rewards.
That is my two cents anyway...
Sports Radio And Baseball - Cart Or The Horse
I listen to quite a bit of Sports Radio. I am partial to Fox Sports Radio because I like Dan Patrick, Colin Cowherd and Doug Gottlieb. My second choice is ESPN and CBS. While I enjoy the banter, the bravado and the discussions on these shows, the content is always the same: The NBA and a sprinkling of the NFL. If MLB is mentioned at all, there is always the "pale in comparison" thought and the "boring" thought and the "not a players' league" thought. Otherwise, something bad must have happened such as an unfortunate foul ball incident. They talk about how their metrics strongly suggest that the NBA is what the audience wants them to talk about. But is this the cart or the horse?
I could type a thousand words on why MLB is not boring nor are the games too long. Suffice it to say that NFL games last the same amount of time and if you break it down, less action actually occurs in a football game than a baseball game. NBA games are generally an hour shorter, except for the last two minutes which take as much time as the first 118. When it comes to revenue, the last figures I saw state that the NFL has about $15 billion in revenue and the MLB has about $9 billion. The NBA has less revenue than both the NFL and MLB.
But this is really not my point in writing this piece. My point is that the idea that listeners do not want to listen to stuff about baseball is driven by the numbers, but what causes the numbers? Let me give you an analogy.
During an economic downturn, the cause can be a myriad of things. The Dot.com bubble bursts or the mortgage giving goes unchecked. The stock market hits a big dip or this is a crisis of some sort such as fuel shortages. Some of those take time to fix but others can bounce back in a heartbeat.
What generally happens is that the news media, always on the lookout for a sensational story, gets all over whatever the crisis happens to be. Once there is constant news scrutiny that a problem has occurred, then the consumer panics and closes ranks on their spending. Doing so deepens the economic crisis, causes unemployment and loss of profits. This is a lot more complicated than I am making it. But, again, suffice it to say that the continued media frenzy adds to the problem and increases the depth of a recession. It is not until the news starts reporting more positive stories such as a jump in GNP or a drop in unemployment that the consumer starts to come out of the shell a little and spends a little money, which in turn fuels a recovery.
I believe that Sports Radio has jumped all over the NBA news party because it has become fashionable and "cooler" than those other "fogies" sports like Baseball, Golf, etc. But you can narrow it down even further. Sports Radio does not talk about ALL of the NBA, they talk about a few teams and a few players. Do you ever hear them talk about the Memphis Grizzlies, the Phoenix Suns or the Charlotte Hornets?
No! They talk about the Lakers, Warriors, Knicks, Nets, Raptors, Kings and Rockets. Listen to them! That's it! And the only reason the Raptors are mentioned is that they won the Championship and are trying to keep Kawhai Leonard. All the talk now is about the big free agents, the top three draft picks ("Zion is overrated!"). When is the last time that Blake Griffin and Kemba Walker have been mentioned on Sports Radio? When?
It is all Lebron and Rivers and Kawhi and a few others ad nauseum. So this isn't even about the NBA. This is about a few teams on the NBA and a few players. Repeat and rehash. Every show. Every day. Every night.
Getting back to my analogy, I think the metrics that Sports Radio hang its hat on are self-created and self-driven. The cart is not in front of the horse. The cart and the horse are the same! They talk about (part) of the NBA because that is what their metrics say fans want to hear. And fans want to hear about (part) of the NBA because that is all they hear.
Now let's talk about Major League Baseball. Is $9 billion in revenue a fluke? Major League Baseball with its MLB.com, MLB.tv and MLB Network and all the merchandise that goes along with it is raking in the money. The owners are fat and happy. The top players make scads of money just like in the NBA. If all I have said so far in this paragraph is true, there is interest in Major League Baseball and that interest is very strong.
The number of sports blogs that cover baseball and baseball teams triple and more the amount of blogs that cover other sports. The NBA has started to talk about metrics now. Kawhi was worth 8 points in that game over average. The MLB has been obsessed with this for YEARS! Why? Because no other sport garners the same degree of interest in the numbers generated by players like baseball.
My challenge to Sports Radio will never be taken up because they are so comfortable in their zones. I do not see change happening any time soon. But my challenge would be to talk about baseball, Sports Radio. Make it at least a block of discussion in each of your three hours shows. If you do that, I would bet you that your metrics would reflect a change and that people would start wanting you to talk about it.
The one caveat though is that you would have to bring the same sort of excitement you bring to what you cover now. Do not sit there and talk about what baseball has to do to be less boring. Talk about some the cool things happening with the young players and the challenge that is going to happen for the next player-owner agreement to take place because of that emphasis on youth. Instead of vocal sighs when discussing MLB, Colin will need to do just as many WOOOooos! as he does with the Lakers.
Try it, Sports Radio. You won't, but I still dare you to. Maybe then we listeners will not have to see all sides of the Lakers for twenty of every twenty-four hour day. That does get old, folks.
I could type a thousand words on why MLB is not boring nor are the games too long. Suffice it to say that NFL games last the same amount of time and if you break it down, less action actually occurs in a football game than a baseball game. NBA games are generally an hour shorter, except for the last two minutes which take as much time as the first 118. When it comes to revenue, the last figures I saw state that the NFL has about $15 billion in revenue and the MLB has about $9 billion. The NBA has less revenue than both the NFL and MLB.
But this is really not my point in writing this piece. My point is that the idea that listeners do not want to listen to stuff about baseball is driven by the numbers, but what causes the numbers? Let me give you an analogy.
During an economic downturn, the cause can be a myriad of things. The Dot.com bubble bursts or the mortgage giving goes unchecked. The stock market hits a big dip or this is a crisis of some sort such as fuel shortages. Some of those take time to fix but others can bounce back in a heartbeat.
What generally happens is that the news media, always on the lookout for a sensational story, gets all over whatever the crisis happens to be. Once there is constant news scrutiny that a problem has occurred, then the consumer panics and closes ranks on their spending. Doing so deepens the economic crisis, causes unemployment and loss of profits. This is a lot more complicated than I am making it. But, again, suffice it to say that the continued media frenzy adds to the problem and increases the depth of a recession. It is not until the news starts reporting more positive stories such as a jump in GNP or a drop in unemployment that the consumer starts to come out of the shell a little and spends a little money, which in turn fuels a recovery.
I believe that Sports Radio has jumped all over the NBA news party because it has become fashionable and "cooler" than those other "fogies" sports like Baseball, Golf, etc. But you can narrow it down even further. Sports Radio does not talk about ALL of the NBA, they talk about a few teams and a few players. Do you ever hear them talk about the Memphis Grizzlies, the Phoenix Suns or the Charlotte Hornets?
No! They talk about the Lakers, Warriors, Knicks, Nets, Raptors, Kings and Rockets. Listen to them! That's it! And the only reason the Raptors are mentioned is that they won the Championship and are trying to keep Kawhai Leonard. All the talk now is about the big free agents, the top three draft picks ("Zion is overrated!"). When is the last time that Blake Griffin and Kemba Walker have been mentioned on Sports Radio? When?
It is all Lebron and Rivers and Kawhi and a few others ad nauseum. So this isn't even about the NBA. This is about a few teams on the NBA and a few players. Repeat and rehash. Every show. Every day. Every night.
Getting back to my analogy, I think the metrics that Sports Radio hang its hat on are self-created and self-driven. The cart is not in front of the horse. The cart and the horse are the same! They talk about (part) of the NBA because that is what their metrics say fans want to hear. And fans want to hear about (part) of the NBA because that is all they hear.
Now let's talk about Major League Baseball. Is $9 billion in revenue a fluke? Major League Baseball with its MLB.com, MLB.tv and MLB Network and all the merchandise that goes along with it is raking in the money. The owners are fat and happy. The top players make scads of money just like in the NBA. If all I have said so far in this paragraph is true, there is interest in Major League Baseball and that interest is very strong.
The number of sports blogs that cover baseball and baseball teams triple and more the amount of blogs that cover other sports. The NBA has started to talk about metrics now. Kawhi was worth 8 points in that game over average. The MLB has been obsessed with this for YEARS! Why? Because no other sport garners the same degree of interest in the numbers generated by players like baseball.
My challenge to Sports Radio will never be taken up because they are so comfortable in their zones. I do not see change happening any time soon. But my challenge would be to talk about baseball, Sports Radio. Make it at least a block of discussion in each of your three hours shows. If you do that, I would bet you that your metrics would reflect a change and that people would start wanting you to talk about it.
The one caveat though is that you would have to bring the same sort of excitement you bring to what you cover now. Do not sit there and talk about what baseball has to do to be less boring. Talk about some the cool things happening with the young players and the challenge that is going to happen for the next player-owner agreement to take place because of that emphasis on youth. Instead of vocal sighs when discussing MLB, Colin will need to do just as many WOOOooos! as he does with the Lakers.
Try it, Sports Radio. You won't, but I still dare you to. Maybe then we listeners will not have to see all sides of the Lakers for twenty of every twenty-four hour day. That does get old, folks.
Monday, June 24, 2019
The Anonymous Chad Green
The New York Yankees revolve in a whirlpool of interest with every game, action, roster move, etc., covered from multiple angles. Under such scrutiny, no player is truly anonymous, but, Chad Green has been nearly so. Ever since Domingo German went down with an injury and the Yankees had no other starters available, Chad Green has been the "Opener" for the Yankees and has sort of become lost in the shuffle of attention. While I watch constant walks the last four innings of relief outings on winning nights, I wish that were not so.
If you have followed this blog along its bumpy course, you know that I hate everything that happens to do with this Opener thing. It is one part of my old-fashionness that I cannot seem to get out of my system. I can live with defensive shifts because batters can break it and do not. But there is something about Openers that rub me in all the wrong places.
The fact that the Tampa Bay Rays started it probably has something to do with it. The Rays are the "smart" team. The Rays are the "hip" team. The Rays are the "scrappy" team. Blech. Give me a root canal instead. I was dreading the Yankees copying the "smart" team and going with an Opener. When German went down with his hip problem, the Yankees could not wait to jump into the Opener pool. It is embarrassing to me.
While saying all that, I do have to admit that the decision to pursue such a personally embarrassing course has worked. And it has worked spectacularly. The Yankees have employed the tacky tactic six times and have won each of those games. The last three games Chad Green has pitched have been as the Opener. He has six "starts" or "opens" altogether.
The unfortunate thing for Green in these outings is that he gets little recognition. He cannot get a win. He cannot get a Hold or a Save. He cannot get any juice on the leverage index. All he can get is a pat on the back. Of his six starts, the second pitcher has gotten the victory four times. David Hale won the earliest one. Chance Adams won the second. The bullpen blew the lead but got the win later in the game in the third. Nestor Cortez Jr. has won two and the later bullpen got the sixth. All those wins and Chad Green got an inning or two in the box score.
It is too bad that so few people have noticed because Green has been awesome in his outings beginning the last week of May. Most know that he was truly horrible to start the season. His first ten outings led to an OPS against of 1.228. His ERA was 16.43 and his WHIP was 2.478. Brutal. He was sent to the minors, regained a bit of his mojo and came back to the Yankees.
Green was better in May after his call back to the Big Leagues. He still struggled a bit early in that callback. He finished the month with a 4.70 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. But he walked only one and struck out ten in 7.2 innings pitched. He was approaching more Chad Green historical numbers.
Starting with his last two appearances in May and now all of June, Chad Green has been spectacular covering eight appearances. He has not given up a homer, walked only one batter and struck out 20 batters in 11.1 innings pitched. He has given up one run in that span. His ERA for June is 0.96 and his WHIP is 1.071. If you toss out his one less than stellar relief outing in Toronto on June 6, he has been nearly perfect.
But here's the thing. Chad Green's last three appearances have been Opens. The Yankees have won them all, of course, but Green has not pitched in any games in between those Opens. So basically, this again stellar Chad Green is pitching two innings every fifth day. While he is thus employed, every time a Yankee starter goes five innings (which is nearly every night), and the team is winning closely, there is no option but going with Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Missing Dellin Betances does not help. But neither does missing Chad Green. Oh, the Yankees can throw Jonathan Holder out there if they feel like blowing the lead and having to fight to get it back.
Chad Green seems ready to resume his killer innings in high leverage situations but cannot as long as he is the Opener. Meanwhile, games like Saturday night where the latter three relievers could not throw strikes and yet somehow survived will sooner or later start turning into losses because you cannot live that close to the edge all the time. That quartet has to be getting tired and all the extra pitchers they are throwing does not help.
At the same time, the Open games are all wins and none of them happen without Green pumping in those strikes and being a beast. What winning percentage would there be if a Chance Adams or someone had been plugged in there? It wouldn't be 1.000. Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo German are expected back around the All Star Game. Maybe that will help. The top four relievers are giving me a great deal of heartburn while a Chad Green who could help is toiling anonymously at the front of games, albeit very successfully.
If you have followed this blog along its bumpy course, you know that I hate everything that happens to do with this Opener thing. It is one part of my old-fashionness that I cannot seem to get out of my system. I can live with defensive shifts because batters can break it and do not. But there is something about Openers that rub me in all the wrong places.
The fact that the Tampa Bay Rays started it probably has something to do with it. The Rays are the "smart" team. The Rays are the "hip" team. The Rays are the "scrappy" team. Blech. Give me a root canal instead. I was dreading the Yankees copying the "smart" team and going with an Opener. When German went down with his hip problem, the Yankees could not wait to jump into the Opener pool. It is embarrassing to me.
While saying all that, I do have to admit that the decision to pursue such a personally embarrassing course has worked. And it has worked spectacularly. The Yankees have employed the tacky tactic six times and have won each of those games. The last three games Chad Green has pitched have been as the Opener. He has six "starts" or "opens" altogether.
The unfortunate thing for Green in these outings is that he gets little recognition. He cannot get a win. He cannot get a Hold or a Save. He cannot get any juice on the leverage index. All he can get is a pat on the back. Of his six starts, the second pitcher has gotten the victory four times. David Hale won the earliest one. Chance Adams won the second. The bullpen blew the lead but got the win later in the game in the third. Nestor Cortez Jr. has won two and the later bullpen got the sixth. All those wins and Chad Green got an inning or two in the box score.
It is too bad that so few people have noticed because Green has been awesome in his outings beginning the last week of May. Most know that he was truly horrible to start the season. His first ten outings led to an OPS against of 1.228. His ERA was 16.43 and his WHIP was 2.478. Brutal. He was sent to the minors, regained a bit of his mojo and came back to the Yankees.
Green was better in May after his call back to the Big Leagues. He still struggled a bit early in that callback. He finished the month with a 4.70 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. But he walked only one and struck out ten in 7.2 innings pitched. He was approaching more Chad Green historical numbers.
Starting with his last two appearances in May and now all of June, Chad Green has been spectacular covering eight appearances. He has not given up a homer, walked only one batter and struck out 20 batters in 11.1 innings pitched. He has given up one run in that span. His ERA for June is 0.96 and his WHIP is 1.071. If you toss out his one less than stellar relief outing in Toronto on June 6, he has been nearly perfect.
But here's the thing. Chad Green's last three appearances have been Opens. The Yankees have won them all, of course, but Green has not pitched in any games in between those Opens. So basically, this again stellar Chad Green is pitching two innings every fifth day. While he is thus employed, every time a Yankee starter goes five innings (which is nearly every night), and the team is winning closely, there is no option but going with Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Missing Dellin Betances does not help. But neither does missing Chad Green. Oh, the Yankees can throw Jonathan Holder out there if they feel like blowing the lead and having to fight to get it back.
Chad Green seems ready to resume his killer innings in high leverage situations but cannot as long as he is the Opener. Meanwhile, games like Saturday night where the latter three relievers could not throw strikes and yet somehow survived will sooner or later start turning into losses because you cannot live that close to the edge all the time. That quartet has to be getting tired and all the extra pitchers they are throwing does not help.
At the same time, the Open games are all wins and none of them happen without Green pumping in those strikes and being a beast. What winning percentage would there be if a Chance Adams or someone had been plugged in there? It wouldn't be 1.000. Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo German are expected back around the All Star Game. Maybe that will help. The top four relievers are giving me a great deal of heartburn while a Chad Green who could help is toiling anonymously at the front of games, albeit very successfully.
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Rain Delay Read - Two Pitching Trade Desires
There is nothing worse than waiting all day for a baseball game, especially a game that features the return of Giancarlo Stanton, and then having the game on a rain delay. Enough with the rain already! When did New York become part of a rain forest? Instead of sitting here stewing, I figured I would give my two cents on which two pitchers I would target to get the rotation over the hump for a deep run into the post season.
Granted, there are internal possibilities on the horizon. Eventually, Luis Severino will be back and Jordan Montgomery seems to be on track to return in July. There is no way you can count on these two pitchers having any kind of productivity this season. If it happens, super. But that is in a perfect world. The world is imperfect and the New York Yankees seem to need at least one stud in the rotation. Think Justin Verlander joining the Astros or something like that.
Here are two thoughts on pitchers I would target for trade to boost the Yankees' rotation:
1. Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers. Boyd is making $2.6 million for a team going nowhere. He is 28-years-old and having a career season. Granted, he has never been this good before. But his numbers are sterling. With a FIP of 3.06, a K/9 rate of 11.4 and a BB/9 rate of 1.7. He is 28 years old and controllable until 2023. And he made 31 starts last year and is on his way to doing the same thing this year. The only blemish on his record is his homer per nine rate of 1.1 and he is pretty much a five-inning pitcher.
The other thing I look at is that, for his career, Boyd has held the Red Sox to a .738 OPS and held the Tampa Bay Rays to a .606 OPS (small sample size alert). He has faced the Red Sox five times and the Rays three times.
Why is this trade desirable for the Tigers? First, any saved money for the Tigers is saved money. Secondly, the Tigers cannot hit. They are next to last in Batting Average and On Base Percentage and last in the AL in Slugging Percentage. A trade for Clint Frazier and a lower grade prospect immediately makes Frazier the best hitter on their team. Plus, he is cheap.
2. Stephen Strasburg - Washington Nationals. The Nationals may believe they have a shot in the NL East or for the wildcard. But I do not see it. They had an opportunity to gain a ton for Bryce Harper last year and missed the boat. The combination of Max Scherzer and Strasburg are incredibly expensive. But the reason I bypass Scherzer is that he is older by four years and is owed $42 million each year for the next couple of years. Holy cow!
There are some questions about Strasburg. He has not made 30 starts since 2014. But he has won 64% of his starts over his career and has struck out more than ten batters per nine for six straight seasons. He is not cheap either. He is making $38 million this season and can opt out at the end of the season. But he goes down to $15 million for the next two seasons (if he doesn't opt out) and then $45 million in the final year of the deal. It is a weird contract. With Scott Boras as his agent, the possibility of an opt out is strong.
Depending on how much the Nats kick in to Strasburg's contract, I would think that Frazier and, say Thairo Estrada could get it done. Estrada might be particularly attractive because Brian Dozier is bumping up to the 32-33-year-old Robbie Alomar second base wall. He could complete a terrific infield for the Nats.
Those are my two cents. Looking at all the teams in the bottoms of standings, these two pitchers, Stephen Strasburg and Matthew Boyd, seem the most interesting when it comes to putting the Yankees' rotation over the top and at least able to compete against the best teams in the American League.
Granted, there are internal possibilities on the horizon. Eventually, Luis Severino will be back and Jordan Montgomery seems to be on track to return in July. There is no way you can count on these two pitchers having any kind of productivity this season. If it happens, super. But that is in a perfect world. The world is imperfect and the New York Yankees seem to need at least one stud in the rotation. Think Justin Verlander joining the Astros or something like that.
Here are two thoughts on pitchers I would target for trade to boost the Yankees' rotation:
1. Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers. Boyd is making $2.6 million for a team going nowhere. He is 28-years-old and having a career season. Granted, he has never been this good before. But his numbers are sterling. With a FIP of 3.06, a K/9 rate of 11.4 and a BB/9 rate of 1.7. He is 28 years old and controllable until 2023. And he made 31 starts last year and is on his way to doing the same thing this year. The only blemish on his record is his homer per nine rate of 1.1 and he is pretty much a five-inning pitcher.
The other thing I look at is that, for his career, Boyd has held the Red Sox to a .738 OPS and held the Tampa Bay Rays to a .606 OPS (small sample size alert). He has faced the Red Sox five times and the Rays three times.
Why is this trade desirable for the Tigers? First, any saved money for the Tigers is saved money. Secondly, the Tigers cannot hit. They are next to last in Batting Average and On Base Percentage and last in the AL in Slugging Percentage. A trade for Clint Frazier and a lower grade prospect immediately makes Frazier the best hitter on their team. Plus, he is cheap.
2. Stephen Strasburg - Washington Nationals. The Nationals may believe they have a shot in the NL East or for the wildcard. But I do not see it. They had an opportunity to gain a ton for Bryce Harper last year and missed the boat. The combination of Max Scherzer and Strasburg are incredibly expensive. But the reason I bypass Scherzer is that he is older by four years and is owed $42 million each year for the next couple of years. Holy cow!
There are some questions about Strasburg. He has not made 30 starts since 2014. But he has won 64% of his starts over his career and has struck out more than ten batters per nine for six straight seasons. He is not cheap either. He is making $38 million this season and can opt out at the end of the season. But he goes down to $15 million for the next two seasons (if he doesn't opt out) and then $45 million in the final year of the deal. It is a weird contract. With Scott Boras as his agent, the possibility of an opt out is strong.
Depending on how much the Nats kick in to Strasburg's contract, I would think that Frazier and, say Thairo Estrada could get it done. Estrada might be particularly attractive because Brian Dozier is bumping up to the 32-33-year-old Robbie Alomar second base wall. He could complete a terrific infield for the Nats.
Those are my two cents. Looking at all the teams in the bottoms of standings, these two pitchers, Stephen Strasburg and Matthew Boyd, seem the most interesting when it comes to putting the Yankees' rotation over the top and at least able to compete against the best teams in the American League.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Luke Voit Not As Adroit
Everyone's favorite story last year was Luke Voit. After a year of frustration with Greg Bird and anyone else the Yankees put over at first in 2018, Voit was acquired with little fanfare, plugged into first base and became the most exciting and fun story for the 2018 Yankees. This spring, the question was, "Is Luke Voit For Real?" I asked the question myself. While Voit has good numbers and is in the plus side of the offensive average, he is not the same dynamo and does not seem to be having the same amount of fun. So what is wrong with Luke Voit?
One could speculate in many ways. Last year, Voit was just a cog in a lineup full of powerful options for a team that broke the all-time homer record. With all the injuries this year, did Voit take too much upon himself and try too hard to make up the difference? Is it a strong factor that people doubted if he was the real deal and he tried too hard to prove he was? That is all speculation, of course, and without Voit opening up about his mindset, that is all it can be.
There are observations one can make. He looks too intense at the plate. Every pitch is a battle. He does not look nearly as happy as he was. His swing at times looks like he has taken the uppercut to new extremes to the point of looking softball-like. His hips bail out (which he never did before) leading to swings and misses, weaker contact and ground balls. Those are all eyeball tests though. And perhaps they are legit since I have been watching baseball for half a century. But for those of you who only want to know the numbers, let's consider some of them.
Last year, Luke Voit put exactly 100 balls in play in fair territory according to Baseball-reference.com. That makes for a very easy way to come up with percentages. You cannot get more easy than that! I like this number better than Fangraphs.com's percentages because it only measures balls in fair territory. Yes, there are foul outs and the like, but I think the fair territory balls in play gives a nice picture. Some of the facts I will present do come from Fangraphs, but most are from B-Ref. The 2018 data includes his short stint with the Cardinals.
The first thing to notice is his pull percentage. In 2018, he pulled the ball only 23% of those balls he put in fair territory. That percentage is up to 33% this year. This meets the eye test that his hips are flying open and he is trying to pull the ball much more often.
Last year, he hit four homers to the opposite field. And he hit a total of fourteen homers to either right field or center field. Out of 100 balls put in fair territory, that is pretty incredible. This year, Voit has only hit one homer to right field and ten to center field (the same as last year) in 69 more at bats!
According to Fangraphs heat maps, Luke Voit's happy zones have shrunk. Last year, there was pink or darker in 22 of Voit's 36 strike zone sectors. This included one on the outer sixth of the plate. This year, he has 18 happy sectors and none on the outer sixth of the plate. This again shows that Voit has lost his approach to think first to drive the ball to right and center.
Voit's ground ball rate has increased by five percentage points while his homer to fly ball rate is lower by almost fourteen percentage points.
The most damning statistic that shows Luke Voit does not have the same approach as last year is his hard hit ball rate. Last year, his hard hit ball rate was 47%. It was that rate that had people thinking Voit was the real deal. This year, Voit's hard hit ball rate is down to 37.1%. That is quite a drop and would account for his Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) dropping from .365 last year to this year's .309.
There are two ways to look at Luke Voit's performance thus far this season. One could say that last year was unsustainable. Voit had never performed like that at any level of professional baseball. And that even where he is this year is as a very good offensive performer. His OPS+ is 131 and wRC+ is 132 (two ways at looking at the same thing). That means that he is 31 or 32% better than league average as an offensive performer. He is still a positive offensive force for the Yankees overall and still a godsend after the Greg Bird days.
On the other side of the coin, if he could go back to last year's approach and take the outside pitch to right or center and keep his hips from flying out, he wouldn't necessarily be the flame that last year was, but he would be better than he is and perhaps he would smile more again.
One could speculate in many ways. Last year, Voit was just a cog in a lineup full of powerful options for a team that broke the all-time homer record. With all the injuries this year, did Voit take too much upon himself and try too hard to make up the difference? Is it a strong factor that people doubted if he was the real deal and he tried too hard to prove he was? That is all speculation, of course, and without Voit opening up about his mindset, that is all it can be.
There are observations one can make. He looks too intense at the plate. Every pitch is a battle. He does not look nearly as happy as he was. His swing at times looks like he has taken the uppercut to new extremes to the point of looking softball-like. His hips bail out (which he never did before) leading to swings and misses, weaker contact and ground balls. Those are all eyeball tests though. And perhaps they are legit since I have been watching baseball for half a century. But for those of you who only want to know the numbers, let's consider some of them.
Last year, Luke Voit put exactly 100 balls in play in fair territory according to Baseball-reference.com. That makes for a very easy way to come up with percentages. You cannot get more easy than that! I like this number better than Fangraphs.com's percentages because it only measures balls in fair territory. Yes, there are foul outs and the like, but I think the fair territory balls in play gives a nice picture. Some of the facts I will present do come from Fangraphs, but most are from B-Ref. The 2018 data includes his short stint with the Cardinals.
The first thing to notice is his pull percentage. In 2018, he pulled the ball only 23% of those balls he put in fair territory. That percentage is up to 33% this year. This meets the eye test that his hips are flying open and he is trying to pull the ball much more often.
Last year, he hit four homers to the opposite field. And he hit a total of fourteen homers to either right field or center field. Out of 100 balls put in fair territory, that is pretty incredible. This year, Voit has only hit one homer to right field and ten to center field (the same as last year) in 69 more at bats!
According to Fangraphs heat maps, Luke Voit's happy zones have shrunk. Last year, there was pink or darker in 22 of Voit's 36 strike zone sectors. This included one on the outer sixth of the plate. This year, he has 18 happy sectors and none on the outer sixth of the plate. This again shows that Voit has lost his approach to think first to drive the ball to right and center.
Voit's ground ball rate has increased by five percentage points while his homer to fly ball rate is lower by almost fourteen percentage points.
The most damning statistic that shows Luke Voit does not have the same approach as last year is his hard hit ball rate. Last year, his hard hit ball rate was 47%. It was that rate that had people thinking Voit was the real deal. This year, Voit's hard hit ball rate is down to 37.1%. That is quite a drop and would account for his Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) dropping from .365 last year to this year's .309.
There are two ways to look at Luke Voit's performance thus far this season. One could say that last year was unsustainable. Voit had never performed like that at any level of professional baseball. And that even where he is this year is as a very good offensive performer. His OPS+ is 131 and wRC+ is 132 (two ways at looking at the same thing). That means that he is 31 or 32% better than league average as an offensive performer. He is still a positive offensive force for the Yankees overall and still a godsend after the Greg Bird days.
On the other side of the coin, if he could go back to last year's approach and take the outside pitch to right or center and keep his hips from flying out, he wouldn't necessarily be the flame that last year was, but he would be better than he is and perhaps he would smile more again.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
MLB All Star Voting Is Seriously Flawed
I just completed my first ballot for the MLB All Star roster over at MLB.com. The "first ballot" thought is a real sticking point. Why are there multiple votes allowed? Is this American Idol? And what about the timing of the start of voting? Can we really tell who deserves to go based on two months of baseball? These are some of the hangups I have when it comes to, not only this new voting, but also the old way. I am not a fan of fan voting.
First of all, I feel a very compelling guilt if I do not vote for many members of my favorite team. I have been so pleased with DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, so the urge is to vote for them. But Urshela currently stands 17th in the league in fWAR for third basemen. LeMahieu has a better argument, but if you boil it all down, Tommy La Stella and Brandon Lowe have a slight edge. Of course, part of the problem is the unreliability of the defensive statistics. Is Urshela really the sixteenth best fielding third baseman in baseball? I have a really hard time buying that.
The only Yankee I voted for was Gary Sanchez. That's it. To me, that is the way it should be done. You should not vote for hometown guys or guys with great reputations. Who is the best this year? Vote for that guy. But how many are like me out there? I am not trying to paint myself as this saint, but you know the majority of fans are voting for hometown guys or guys who were great in years past. When that happens, you get Bryce Harper starting for the NL in 2018.
If it was one vote per person, then there might be more clarity for guys and gals that think like me to have a chance. But if you can vote dozens of times or whatever it is, everything gets muddy and you do not get a true picture of who should start the game.
I also believe that the voting should not be started until two weeks before the final selections or the game itself. Say, for example, you could vote for pitchers and Domingo German is on the ballot when you first go to vote at the very start of June or whenever they started. German was an All Star in April and May. He is not now. That is how fast things can change.
How about if the reverse is true? What if a guy was just middling through April and May and plays with stars in his hair in June and by the end of the month is the best player at his position to that point? Sorry, pal, we already voted for someone else.
I do not believe that smaller market teams are penalized as in the past when voting was by cards given out at the ballpark. With things on the Internet now, it should not matter that way any more. Plus, I am not sure I buy the small market idea anyway. When every franchise is worth at least a billion or more and all that money pours in from MLB.com, etc., then you only have franchises that spend money and those who would rather pocket the money.
The alternatives are unattractive as well. Polling managers leads to team stacking. Just look at how pitchers are selected. Last year's league champion manager will put his entire pitching staff out there if he can manage it. So, no, that does not work. Writers cannot even get the Hall of Fame ballot correctly. How will they manage an All Star selection? The problem is that some will do their homework and others will just file it in. Do players really know how all the other players are doing? Doubtful.
I would be okay with fan voting if it was one vote per fan. Perhaps I could go as high as three if some change their minds. But that's it. I would also be okay if the selections were made from equal shares of writers, fans, managers and players. I just know that a plethora of votes per fan is not productive and will not lead to the best players starting the game.
All that said, MLB has the best All Star format and game in all of sports. It is the only major sport where the players actually play the game to the best of their abilities. As flawed as the voting is, the MLB All Star game is the only one in sports I am willing to watch.
First of all, I feel a very compelling guilt if I do not vote for many members of my favorite team. I have been so pleased with DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, so the urge is to vote for them. But Urshela currently stands 17th in the league in fWAR for third basemen. LeMahieu has a better argument, but if you boil it all down, Tommy La Stella and Brandon Lowe have a slight edge. Of course, part of the problem is the unreliability of the defensive statistics. Is Urshela really the sixteenth best fielding third baseman in baseball? I have a really hard time buying that.
The only Yankee I voted for was Gary Sanchez. That's it. To me, that is the way it should be done. You should not vote for hometown guys or guys with great reputations. Who is the best this year? Vote for that guy. But how many are like me out there? I am not trying to paint myself as this saint, but you know the majority of fans are voting for hometown guys or guys who were great in years past. When that happens, you get Bryce Harper starting for the NL in 2018.
If it was one vote per person, then there might be more clarity for guys and gals that think like me to have a chance. But if you can vote dozens of times or whatever it is, everything gets muddy and you do not get a true picture of who should start the game.
I also believe that the voting should not be started until two weeks before the final selections or the game itself. Say, for example, you could vote for pitchers and Domingo German is on the ballot when you first go to vote at the very start of June or whenever they started. German was an All Star in April and May. He is not now. That is how fast things can change.
How about if the reverse is true? What if a guy was just middling through April and May and plays with stars in his hair in June and by the end of the month is the best player at his position to that point? Sorry, pal, we already voted for someone else.
I do not believe that smaller market teams are penalized as in the past when voting was by cards given out at the ballpark. With things on the Internet now, it should not matter that way any more. Plus, I am not sure I buy the small market idea anyway. When every franchise is worth at least a billion or more and all that money pours in from MLB.com, etc., then you only have franchises that spend money and those who would rather pocket the money.
The alternatives are unattractive as well. Polling managers leads to team stacking. Just look at how pitchers are selected. Last year's league champion manager will put his entire pitching staff out there if he can manage it. So, no, that does not work. Writers cannot even get the Hall of Fame ballot correctly. How will they manage an All Star selection? The problem is that some will do their homework and others will just file it in. Do players really know how all the other players are doing? Doubtful.
I would be okay with fan voting if it was one vote per fan. Perhaps I could go as high as three if some change their minds. But that's it. I would also be okay if the selections were made from equal shares of writers, fans, managers and players. I just know that a plethora of votes per fan is not productive and will not lead to the best players starting the game.
All that said, MLB has the best All Star format and game in all of sports. It is the only major sport where the players actually play the game to the best of their abilities. As flawed as the voting is, the MLB All Star game is the only one in sports I am willing to watch.
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Let's Play Yankees GM - Roster Moves As Players Return
The New York Yankees have missed a major chunk of their expected starting lineup and yet the team is in first place and playing very good baseball. The wounded have been slowly dribbling in and will continue to do so in the weeks ahead. So many of the "fill-in" players have been playing so well that a roster crunch is definitely on its way. So how should the Yankees handle the roster as players return? Let's take a look at how this could (or should) play out.
I should point out ahead of time that these thoughts are contingent on no further injuries and based on expected return times of missing players. Let's first look at the non-pitchers.
Didi Gregorius should be the first one back. Didi is the only one not surprised that he is ready so soon. The caveat here is that the Yankees' infield has been as solid as I have seen it since the 1990s. DJ LeMahieu is so good at second base and he has been hitting so well. You hate to move him. But move him the Yankees will have to do. What is the corresponding roster move?
The easy answer is Thairo Estrada. The kid is ahead of projections and was not supposed to start his career yet. Plus, he is not playing every day to stay sharp. But the 23-year-old has a .380 wOBA and a 140 wRC+ while playing respectable defense. Would he learn just as much at the Major League level and contribute like he has?
My answer is to DFA Kendrys Morales. Morales is a dinosaur who cannot help himself hitting consistently into the shift. He is good for a walk here and there. But otherwise, he offers little value at the plate and no value in the field. And, he clogs up the DH and the base paths. Sending him away makes it easier for LeMahieu to get consistent at bats as either the regular first baseman and a rotate DH with Gleyber Torres, Gregorius (Torres plays short when Didi DHs) and Gio Urshela.
Didi Gregorius becomes your regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres moves to second, which is a shame. Urshela is your fixture at third, Luke Voit is your first baseman / DH and LeMahieu is the rover with Estrada the backup.
The next player back appears to be Troy Tulowitzki. This should be an easy one. Thanks for trying, Tulo. See ya. Any other decision would be stupid. By missing half the season already, he has lived up (or down) to his injury reputation.
Then there is Aaron Judge. I do not know about you, but I sure miss Aaron Judge. This should be an easy decision as well. Cameron Maybin has been good for the Yankees and is a great team guy. But he is the only logical choice. Brett Gardner is part of the furniture. Aaron Hicks is a newly-contracted guy and Clint Frazier is one of your best prospects and is mashing reasonably well in between his strikeouts. The only logic behind keeping Maybin is that he can play all three positions in the outfield. But as long as you have Gardner and Frazier, things are covered.
The last position player back will be Giancarlo Stanton. His long absence this year has been extremely disappointing. Not that the Yankees could not cover his absence, but he makes a ton of money and together with Judge could be hitting moonshots all over the place. Things get really interesting when he returns. What should the roster move be?
The problem is that you cannot trust Stanton in the outfield. I hate a clogged up DH. If he could play LF every day, I would be fine with that with Gardner as the backup and then you have to send Frazier down. But if he is a DH only, then you need Frazier for depth and the move is to send Estrada down. I am okay with four rotating infielders as long as they do not get hurt.
I am not even going to discuss Greg Bird. I am not even going to think about him or Jacoby Ellsbury. In fact, I am fine if I never see them in pinstripes again. And, of course, Miguel Andujar is gone until next season.
Okay, the return of Dellin Betances is long-awaited and hoped for. His roster move will be easy as the Yankees have been carrying a fringe pitcher all season.
As for starters, I do not see any point in bringing in Dallas Keuchel. First, he will be expensive for what, a little more than half the season? If CC Sabathia can hang in there and if Luis Severino comes back in August, the Yankees should be fine. Plus, Jordan Montgomery is somewhere out there in the ether too. The only worry is how many innings you want to put on Domingo German. German could be a bullpen piece in the second half and then a full-time starter next season. I guess I am fine with either signing Keuchel or not signing him.
Personally, I do not think Keuchel is as good as he used to be. His strikeout and ground ball rates have dipped. The only reason, perhaps, to sign him is so that the Rays or Red Sox do not.
I do not think we need to talk about Jonathan Loaisiga or Ben Hiller. Hiller will need to prove himself again in the minors and Loaisiga needs to find some command.
So there it is. The Yankees will have some interesting decisions to make as the wounded come trickling back. How they handle the corresponding roster moves could go a long way toward determining how far they get in the AL East or, if the Yankees get there, the playoffs.
I should point out ahead of time that these thoughts are contingent on no further injuries and based on expected return times of missing players. Let's first look at the non-pitchers.
Didi Gregorius should be the first one back. Didi is the only one not surprised that he is ready so soon. The caveat here is that the Yankees' infield has been as solid as I have seen it since the 1990s. DJ LeMahieu is so good at second base and he has been hitting so well. You hate to move him. But move him the Yankees will have to do. What is the corresponding roster move?
The easy answer is Thairo Estrada. The kid is ahead of projections and was not supposed to start his career yet. Plus, he is not playing every day to stay sharp. But the 23-year-old has a .380 wOBA and a 140 wRC+ while playing respectable defense. Would he learn just as much at the Major League level and contribute like he has?
My answer is to DFA Kendrys Morales. Morales is a dinosaur who cannot help himself hitting consistently into the shift. He is good for a walk here and there. But otherwise, he offers little value at the plate and no value in the field. And, he clogs up the DH and the base paths. Sending him away makes it easier for LeMahieu to get consistent at bats as either the regular first baseman and a rotate DH with Gleyber Torres, Gregorius (Torres plays short when Didi DHs) and Gio Urshela.
Didi Gregorius becomes your regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres moves to second, which is a shame. Urshela is your fixture at third, Luke Voit is your first baseman / DH and LeMahieu is the rover with Estrada the backup.
The next player back appears to be Troy Tulowitzki. This should be an easy one. Thanks for trying, Tulo. See ya. Any other decision would be stupid. By missing half the season already, he has lived up (or down) to his injury reputation.
Then there is Aaron Judge. I do not know about you, but I sure miss Aaron Judge. This should be an easy decision as well. Cameron Maybin has been good for the Yankees and is a great team guy. But he is the only logical choice. Brett Gardner is part of the furniture. Aaron Hicks is a newly-contracted guy and Clint Frazier is one of your best prospects and is mashing reasonably well in between his strikeouts. The only logic behind keeping Maybin is that he can play all three positions in the outfield. But as long as you have Gardner and Frazier, things are covered.
The last position player back will be Giancarlo Stanton. His long absence this year has been extremely disappointing. Not that the Yankees could not cover his absence, but he makes a ton of money and together with Judge could be hitting moonshots all over the place. Things get really interesting when he returns. What should the roster move be?
The problem is that you cannot trust Stanton in the outfield. I hate a clogged up DH. If he could play LF every day, I would be fine with that with Gardner as the backup and then you have to send Frazier down. But if he is a DH only, then you need Frazier for depth and the move is to send Estrada down. I am okay with four rotating infielders as long as they do not get hurt.
I am not even going to discuss Greg Bird. I am not even going to think about him or Jacoby Ellsbury. In fact, I am fine if I never see them in pinstripes again. And, of course, Miguel Andujar is gone until next season.
Okay, the return of Dellin Betances is long-awaited and hoped for. His roster move will be easy as the Yankees have been carrying a fringe pitcher all season.
As for starters, I do not see any point in bringing in Dallas Keuchel. First, he will be expensive for what, a little more than half the season? If CC Sabathia can hang in there and if Luis Severino comes back in August, the Yankees should be fine. Plus, Jordan Montgomery is somewhere out there in the ether too. The only worry is how many innings you want to put on Domingo German. German could be a bullpen piece in the second half and then a full-time starter next season. I guess I am fine with either signing Keuchel or not signing him.
Personally, I do not think Keuchel is as good as he used to be. His strikeout and ground ball rates have dipped. The only reason, perhaps, to sign him is so that the Rays or Red Sox do not.
I do not think we need to talk about Jonathan Loaisiga or Ben Hiller. Hiller will need to prove himself again in the minors and Loaisiga needs to find some command.
So there it is. The Yankees will have some interesting decisions to make as the wounded come trickling back. How they handle the corresponding roster moves could go a long way toward determining how far they get in the AL East or, if the Yankees get there, the playoffs.
Thursday, May 23, 2019
Best Reliever Seasons Of All Time
I was thinking one night about the greatest MLB teams I had seen in my lifetime. The 1998 Yankees, of course, was one of those thoughts. But there was also the Big Red Machine with Bench, Morgan, etc. The 2001 Diamondbacks, the 2004 and 2018 Red Sox teams were thoughts. And then I thought of the 1984 Detroit Tigers. I went to look at baseball-reference.com about that team and the thing that blew my mind was the tandem of Aurelio Lopez and Willie Hernandez in the bullpen. Hernandez won the Cy Young Award that season and between those two pitchers, they won 19 games and saved 46 others. Doug Bair was also part of that amazing bullpen. According to B-R, Hernandez rated a 4.8 rWAR that season. Where did that stand all time? So I did a search.
First of all, let me state plainly that B-R and fangraphs.com rate relief pitchers totally different. As we will see later, Mariano Rivera's 1996 was given 5.0 rWAR, but fangraphs.com gave him 3.0. So I am featuring a list based on one site's valuations.
I also discovered that relief pitching has changed drastically in the last thirty years. Guys like Goose Gossage and Dick Raditz pitched in eras that were totally alien to today's MLB reality. That makes their rWAR records untouchable unless the game reverts back--which it may as all things are cyclical. So I made a list of the best rWAR totals all time and will do another list for pitchers from 1995 to today.
To be considered for this list, I defined a relief pitching season as to where all the appearances were in relief with no games started at all. First, here is the All-Time list followed by some comments and then the "modern" list from 1995 to today. The figures going across will be the rWAR, the year, the player, the team, the games pitched, innings, ERA/FIP, OPS+ against. Here goes...
1. 8.2 - 1975 - Goose Gossage - White Sox - 62 - 141.2 - 1.84/2.62 - 56
2. 7.9 - 1973 - John Hiller - Tigers - 65 - 125.2 - 1.44/2.25 - 48
3. 7.3 - 1986 - Mark Eichhorn - Blue Jays - 69 - 157 - 1.72/2.31 - 47
4. 6.6 - 1977 - Bruce Sutter - Cubs - 62 - 107.1 - 1.34/1.61 - 31
5. 6.2 - 1967 - Ted Abernathy - Reds - 70 - 103.1 - 1.27/2.30 - 32
6. 6.1 - 1979 - Jim Kern - Rangers - 71 - 143 - 1.57/2.63 - 49
6. 6.1 - 1964 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 79 - 157 - 2.29/2.62 - 62
8. 6.0 - 1977 - Goose Gossage - Pirates - 72 - 133 - 1.62/2.50 - 38
9. 5.7 - 1980 - Doug Corbett - Twins - 73 - 136.1 - 1.98/3.06 - 52
9. 5.7 - 1963 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 66 - 132.1 - 1.97-2.18 - 62
11. 5.6 - 1979 - Sid Monge - Indians - 76 - 131 - 2.40/3.46 - 67
12. 5.5 - 1983 - Dan Quisenberry - Royals - 69 - 139 - 1.94/2.86 - 52
13. 5.4 - 1982 - Greg Minton - Giants - 78 - 123 - 1.83/3.38 - 81
13. 5.4 - 1962 - Did Raditz - Red Sox - 66 - 124.2 - 2.24/2.30 - 68
15. 5.3 - 1979 - Aurelio Lopez - Tigers - 61 - 127 - 2.41/3.57 - 65
Willie Hernandez's season of 1984 was the 22nd highest rWAR of all time according to this list.
The Goose Gossage story is interesting. He had that record-breaking season in 1975. Then the White Sox tried to make him a starter in 1976. It did not work out well. Gossage wasn't terrible, but his record was. After that season, the White Sox traded him to the Pirates where he went back to relief and had the eighth best season according to this evaluation method.
Dick Raditz did not have a long career, but for three years was what Mickey Mantle called, "That Monster." Consider that the 1964 Red Sox won only 71 games and yet, Raditz pitched in nearly half their games (79) and was a part of 63% of the team's wins. He later had a case of what Rick Ankiel dealt with and could no longer throw strikes. He died in 2005 after falling down a flight of stairs. Raditz, along with Ryne Duren, were the first two relief pitchers to average more than ten strikeouts per nine innings in a season.
I mentioned earlier that today's game is radically different than the 1960s and 1970s baseball. The dominant closers and setup men have become the Holy Grail for all teams. So, to honor the new era, these are the most valuable relief seasons since 1995.
1. 5.0 - 2006 - Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox - 59 - 58.1 - 0.92/2.15 - 18
2. 5.0 - 1996 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 61 - 107.2 - 2.09/1.88 - 24
3. 4.5 - 1999 - Keith Foulke - White Sox - 67 - 105.1 - 2.22/2.84 - 40
4. 4.4 - 2000 - Gabe White - Reds/Rockies - 68 - 84 - 2.36/2.71 - 35
5. 4.3 - 2008 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 64 - 70.2 - 1.40/2.30 - 10
5. 4.3 - 2007 - Rafael Betancourt - Indians - 68 - 79.1 - 1.47/2.22 - 26
7. 4.2 - 2018 - Blake Trienen - Athletics - 68 - 80.1 - 0.78/1.82 - 18
7. 4.2 - 2016 - Zack Britton - Orioles - 69 - 67 - 0.51/1.94 - 17
7. 4.2 - 2004 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 74 - 78.2 - 1.94/2.82 - 50
7. 4.2 - 2002 - Octavio Dotel - Astros - 83 - 97.1 - 1.85/2.43 - 35
Mariano Rivera also had another 4.0 rWAR season. Rivera's OPS+ figure of 10 seemed remarkable to me. So I did another search on any pitcher with over 50 innings pitched and a 10 OPS+ against or lower. This might be another way to indicate the best relieving season of all time. It turns out that there have only been five such seasons. They are, from bestest to best:
1. Craig Kimbrel - 2012 - Braves - 1 (!) Truly remarkable
2. Eric Gagne - 2003 - Dodgers - 4 Maybe it was steroid aided, but still!
3. Koji Uehara - 2013 - Red Sox - 8 He was unhittable that year
4. Billy Wagner - 1999 - Astros - 10 The most underrated reliever ever
4. Mariano Rivera - 2008 - Yankees - 10
So what do you think? Which stat better states the best reliever season of all time? I think it would be hard to argue about Craig Kimbrel's 2012. He struck out 50% of the batters he faced that season in a season where his WHIP was 0.654.
First of all, let me state plainly that B-R and fangraphs.com rate relief pitchers totally different. As we will see later, Mariano Rivera's 1996 was given 5.0 rWAR, but fangraphs.com gave him 3.0. So I am featuring a list based on one site's valuations.
I also discovered that relief pitching has changed drastically in the last thirty years. Guys like Goose Gossage and Dick Raditz pitched in eras that were totally alien to today's MLB reality. That makes their rWAR records untouchable unless the game reverts back--which it may as all things are cyclical. So I made a list of the best rWAR totals all time and will do another list for pitchers from 1995 to today.
To be considered for this list, I defined a relief pitching season as to where all the appearances were in relief with no games started at all. First, here is the All-Time list followed by some comments and then the "modern" list from 1995 to today. The figures going across will be the rWAR, the year, the player, the team, the games pitched, innings, ERA/FIP, OPS+ against. Here goes...
1. 8.2 - 1975 - Goose Gossage - White Sox - 62 - 141.2 - 1.84/2.62 - 56
2. 7.9 - 1973 - John Hiller - Tigers - 65 - 125.2 - 1.44/2.25 - 48
3. 7.3 - 1986 - Mark Eichhorn - Blue Jays - 69 - 157 - 1.72/2.31 - 47
4. 6.6 - 1977 - Bruce Sutter - Cubs - 62 - 107.1 - 1.34/1.61 - 31
5. 6.2 - 1967 - Ted Abernathy - Reds - 70 - 103.1 - 1.27/2.30 - 32
6. 6.1 - 1979 - Jim Kern - Rangers - 71 - 143 - 1.57/2.63 - 49
6. 6.1 - 1964 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 79 - 157 - 2.29/2.62 - 62
8. 6.0 - 1977 - Goose Gossage - Pirates - 72 - 133 - 1.62/2.50 - 38
9. 5.7 - 1980 - Doug Corbett - Twins - 73 - 136.1 - 1.98/3.06 - 52
9. 5.7 - 1963 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 66 - 132.1 - 1.97-2.18 - 62
11. 5.6 - 1979 - Sid Monge - Indians - 76 - 131 - 2.40/3.46 - 67
12. 5.5 - 1983 - Dan Quisenberry - Royals - 69 - 139 - 1.94/2.86 - 52
13. 5.4 - 1982 - Greg Minton - Giants - 78 - 123 - 1.83/3.38 - 81
13. 5.4 - 1962 - Did Raditz - Red Sox - 66 - 124.2 - 2.24/2.30 - 68
15. 5.3 - 1979 - Aurelio Lopez - Tigers - 61 - 127 - 2.41/3.57 - 65
Willie Hernandez's season of 1984 was the 22nd highest rWAR of all time according to this list.
The Goose Gossage story is interesting. He had that record-breaking season in 1975. Then the White Sox tried to make him a starter in 1976. It did not work out well. Gossage wasn't terrible, but his record was. After that season, the White Sox traded him to the Pirates where he went back to relief and had the eighth best season according to this evaluation method.
Dick Raditz did not have a long career, but for three years was what Mickey Mantle called, "That Monster." Consider that the 1964 Red Sox won only 71 games and yet, Raditz pitched in nearly half their games (79) and was a part of 63% of the team's wins. He later had a case of what Rick Ankiel dealt with and could no longer throw strikes. He died in 2005 after falling down a flight of stairs. Raditz, along with Ryne Duren, were the first two relief pitchers to average more than ten strikeouts per nine innings in a season.
I mentioned earlier that today's game is radically different than the 1960s and 1970s baseball. The dominant closers and setup men have become the Holy Grail for all teams. So, to honor the new era, these are the most valuable relief seasons since 1995.
1. 5.0 - 2006 - Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox - 59 - 58.1 - 0.92/2.15 - 18
2. 5.0 - 1996 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 61 - 107.2 - 2.09/1.88 - 24
3. 4.5 - 1999 - Keith Foulke - White Sox - 67 - 105.1 - 2.22/2.84 - 40
4. 4.4 - 2000 - Gabe White - Reds/Rockies - 68 - 84 - 2.36/2.71 - 35
5. 4.3 - 2008 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 64 - 70.2 - 1.40/2.30 - 10
5. 4.3 - 2007 - Rafael Betancourt - Indians - 68 - 79.1 - 1.47/2.22 - 26
7. 4.2 - 2018 - Blake Trienen - Athletics - 68 - 80.1 - 0.78/1.82 - 18
7. 4.2 - 2016 - Zack Britton - Orioles - 69 - 67 - 0.51/1.94 - 17
7. 4.2 - 2004 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 74 - 78.2 - 1.94/2.82 - 50
7. 4.2 - 2002 - Octavio Dotel - Astros - 83 - 97.1 - 1.85/2.43 - 35
Mariano Rivera also had another 4.0 rWAR season. Rivera's OPS+ figure of 10 seemed remarkable to me. So I did another search on any pitcher with over 50 innings pitched and a 10 OPS+ against or lower. This might be another way to indicate the best relieving season of all time. It turns out that there have only been five such seasons. They are, from bestest to best:
1. Craig Kimbrel - 2012 - Braves - 1 (!) Truly remarkable
2. Eric Gagne - 2003 - Dodgers - 4 Maybe it was steroid aided, but still!
3. Koji Uehara - 2013 - Red Sox - 8 He was unhittable that year
4. Billy Wagner - 1999 - Astros - 10 The most underrated reliever ever
4. Mariano Rivera - 2008 - Yankees - 10
So what do you think? Which stat better states the best reliever season of all time? I think it would be hard to argue about Craig Kimbrel's 2012. He struck out 50% of the batters he faced that season in a season where his WHIP was 0.654.
Monday, May 20, 2019
The Yankees This Week - Road Games With Orioles and Royals
I started writing these weekly previews on April 22 and the Yankees have gone 17-7 since that point. They had a record of 11-10 at the time. Being the superstitious sort when it comes to baseball, I figured I had best be faithful to continue writing them. Yeah, sure. Like I am the reason for their run to first place. Ha! But the mind works in foolish ways. And yes, I hear Stevie Wonder's "Superstition" playing in the background. The Yankees simply have to execute this week as this week on the road features two weak teams.
Tonight starts another four game series with the Orioles, this time in Baltimore. Camden Yards is a fun place for the Yankees to hit and the Orioles have only won two of their last eleven. That said, the Yankees again face Andrew Cashner tonight and he has pitched really well in three of his last four outings. Cashner has struck out twenty batters in his last sixteen innings. The team lost all four of those games, however, and Cashner is pretty much a lock to allow at least one home run in every game. JA Happ will need to be in better form as Cashner should keep his team in the game.
Tomorrow is a much better match up for the Yankees as Domingo German looks to continue his winning ways against the gopher-yielding David Hess. The rest of the series pitchers have not been announced but the Yankees will probably see Dylan Bundy late in the week and he was really great in his last start.
The Yankees need at least three wins in this series and a sweep would be fantastic. A split would be a major disappointment against such a highly struggling team.
The Kansas City Royals have just as many losses (31) as the Orioles. The Royals have lost nine of their last thirteen games. The Royals have many nice pieces. Alex Gorden is having a nice season and loves batting against the Yankees. Hunter Dozier and Whitt Merrifield are accomplished hitters having good seasons. And it appears that Adalberto Mondesi is a blossoming star at shortstop. Jorge Solar is a three-outcome hitter and leads the team in homers. But he has already struck out over 60 times.
The real loss for the Royals was Salvador Perez. His loss to Tommy John Surgery for the season seriously weakened them. His replacements, Martin Maldonado and Cam Gallagher, have been black holes at the plate. Think Austin Romine but much worse. Not a pretty picture, eh?
First base has also been a real problem for the Royals. Lucas Duda was not hitting and is now hurt. His replacement, Ryan O'Hearn has not yet found his Big League stroke.
Overall the Royals are ninth in the AL in offense. Not terrible but not great either. It is a team that likes to run and they lead the AL in caught stealing. But the Yankees have problems with base runners.
The starting pitching is where the Royals break down. They do not have a shut down starter or power arms. Only two teams in the AL have walked more batters and only one has given up more hits. Danny Duffy never became the star the Royals hoped he'd be, but he is probably the team's best starter.
The bullpen has three guys (old friend, Ian Kennedy is one) having decent seasons, but whenever there is a Wily Peralta to exploit then the bullpen does not scare you. They do not strike out a lot of batters (except for Jake Diekman) and the team's five saves are the lowest in the AL. It has been a bit sad to see Brad Boxberger's comeback effort not producing anything positive.
Like the Orioles series, a two out of three outcome against the Royals would be acceptable. A sweep would be awesome. Losing two out of three would be a major disappointment. The Yankees should go 5-2 this week. They very well could win six of seven or even all seven. But 5-2 will do it.
What to watch for this week
Tonight starts another four game series with the Orioles, this time in Baltimore. Camden Yards is a fun place for the Yankees to hit and the Orioles have only won two of their last eleven. That said, the Yankees again face Andrew Cashner tonight and he has pitched really well in three of his last four outings. Cashner has struck out twenty batters in his last sixteen innings. The team lost all four of those games, however, and Cashner is pretty much a lock to allow at least one home run in every game. JA Happ will need to be in better form as Cashner should keep his team in the game.
Tomorrow is a much better match up for the Yankees as Domingo German looks to continue his winning ways against the gopher-yielding David Hess. The rest of the series pitchers have not been announced but the Yankees will probably see Dylan Bundy late in the week and he was really great in his last start.
The Yankees need at least three wins in this series and a sweep would be fantastic. A split would be a major disappointment against such a highly struggling team.
The Kansas City Royals have just as many losses (31) as the Orioles. The Royals have lost nine of their last thirteen games. The Royals have many nice pieces. Alex Gorden is having a nice season and loves batting against the Yankees. Hunter Dozier and Whitt Merrifield are accomplished hitters having good seasons. And it appears that Adalberto Mondesi is a blossoming star at shortstop. Jorge Solar is a three-outcome hitter and leads the team in homers. But he has already struck out over 60 times.
The real loss for the Royals was Salvador Perez. His loss to Tommy John Surgery for the season seriously weakened them. His replacements, Martin Maldonado and Cam Gallagher, have been black holes at the plate. Think Austin Romine but much worse. Not a pretty picture, eh?
First base has also been a real problem for the Royals. Lucas Duda was not hitting and is now hurt. His replacement, Ryan O'Hearn has not yet found his Big League stroke.
Overall the Royals are ninth in the AL in offense. Not terrible but not great either. It is a team that likes to run and they lead the AL in caught stealing. But the Yankees have problems with base runners.
The starting pitching is where the Royals break down. They do not have a shut down starter or power arms. Only two teams in the AL have walked more batters and only one has given up more hits. Danny Duffy never became the star the Royals hoped he'd be, but he is probably the team's best starter.
The bullpen has three guys (old friend, Ian Kennedy is one) having decent seasons, but whenever there is a Wily Peralta to exploit then the bullpen does not scare you. They do not strike out a lot of batters (except for Jake Diekman) and the team's five saves are the lowest in the AL. It has been a bit sad to see Brad Boxberger's comeback effort not producing anything positive.
Like the Orioles series, a two out of three outcome against the Royals would be acceptable. A sweep would be awesome. Losing two out of three would be a major disappointment. The Yankees should go 5-2 this week. They very well could win six of seven or even all seven. But 5-2 will do it.
What to watch for this week
- With a long stretch of games without a day off, how many off days will Aaron Boone and company give his players? I think there will be more than what is comfortable. And it will continue to give me constipation.
- Clint Frazier has been stone cold since he came back from the DL. He was so hot before the ankle sprain. It is a shame. Frazier needs to hit.
- CC Sabathia needs two more wins to reach 250 for his career. I really feel like that is an important number for him to reach. Run support has been difficult in his starts. The Yankees need to get this done! 249 this week!?
- The Red Sox are playing the Blue Jays and Astros this week. They already picked up a win today. They should win four games this week.
- The Bay Rays have a tough week against the Dodgers and Indians. They might have difficulty winning four games this week.
- Five wins will extend the Yankees' hold on first place.
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Over Under On How Many Yankee Regulars Rest In Twin Bill
I obviously wrote this before finding out about Kendrys Morales. And no, I am not thrilled with the deal at all. If he costs Clint Frazier a single at bat, I will be upset. And after the double-header, which player will be sent down to get back to 25? Argh!
That title is way too long! I could not think of a shorter one. Anyway, The New York Yankees have had the first two games of a cushy home series against the Orioles rained out. That is unfortunate as it would have been nice to have the easier opponent for a few games. Now they will have to play two double-headers to make up the losses. One will be on Wednesday. My question here is, despite not playing the last two days and having an off day on Thursday, how many Yankee regulars will have at least one game off during the double-header? My number is three with a lean toward over.
At this point, the "regulars" are: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Cameron Maybin, Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez. I can predict easily that Sanchez will sit one of the games as catchers never play both halves. Gleyber Torres seems to have a barking elbow, so he will sit at least one game. And Aaron Hicks is just coming back from the DL, so "caution" will dictate him sitting at least one of the games. Who is my fourth? Let's make it Brett Gardner who often sits one game of a double-header. That will mean that Hicks will play one game in center and Gardner the other.
I can somewhat understand Sanchez and Gleyber. Both are dinged a little and I get the catcher thing. That would be the only two *I* would rest. If Hicks is not healthy enough to be back and play two games, then he shouldn't be back.
But, do not be surprised if the Yankees, in their infinite wisdom and hell-fire desire to rest people, rest more than four. If so, I will be furious and it will not be the first time this season, nor will it be the last.
Let's talk about this rest thing for a minute. I did some work at baseball-reference.com to find out the adverse affects playing almost every game has on players. Obviously, I am not a numbers guru and there are flaws in my thinking. For example, I concentrate on OPS because figuring out first half and second half WAR would be beyond me. I still do not believe in the fielding statistics and no one has convinced me that they are not seriously flawed....still. So, I went by OPS. And you can follow along with my thought process with my spreadsheet on Google Sheets here (click on the word, "here").
What I found first that was interesting to me was that from 1940 to 2018, the average number of players that played nearly every game has remained around ten players per year. There are big swings and variations from year to year, but that average has held true for 70 years. But in the last five seasons, the average number of players playing at least 160 games has dropped to 7.8 players a year. So this idea of resting players is taking a hold on teams and began about five seasons ago.
There were 90 players who played 160 games or more in a season since 2010. Of those players, 51 of them or 57% had a worse second half than their first half. The same 90 produced 45 or exactly half as many worse Septembers than their season's OPS. Ten of them, or 10% played less than 100 games the following season. The latter statistic seems incidental and more of the fluke injury kind of thing.
There were several repeat players on the list. Hunter Pence did it twice and once way under-performed in the second half of the season and in the September and once way over-performed both. The same thing happened with Prince Fielder. Others that did it multiple times (more than two) had a season or two where they were worse in the second half and the last month and a season or two better. So there really was not a rhyme or reason for multiple full-season players.
There were some players who had amazing second halves and last months and some that had abysmal ones. The average season OPS among the 90 seasons was .809. The average OPS for the second half among the 90 was .802. And the last month of the season average was also .802. While there were a lot of variations among the 90, the averages as a whole do not fall off a cliff.
If I did notice one trend, it was that middle infielders seemed to suffer from playing almost every game more than most others. Among the few that really tanked in September (besides the one by Hunter Pence already mentioned) guys like Rougned Odor and Jonathan Schoop had September OPS figures in the .500s. That said, Alcides Escobar finished better in multiple seasons in the second half and the last month. So there isn't a global statement that can be mentioned about infielders.
Perhaps I should have used OPS+ or some of the Fangraphs.com stats to look at the splits. And please note that I am not anywhere close to proving anything. But my list just does not show a smoking gun that playing nearly every game means a player will be far less valuable later on in the season. Call it a conversation starter that others smarter than I can do the math justice.
I am willing to go so far as to say giving a player a day off during a long stretch is probably a good thing. I am not willing to move from my position that a player who is on a good roll should not skip a game during that roll. Nor do I think it necessary to give a player a day off when the schedule already has a day off that week or just recently. If a player is banged up a little and could use a day off combined with a scheduled day off is okay I guess.
I am just not okay with the idea that a game can be put at risk because you want to keep your best players on the bench to rest them. How about if you lose the division by a game? How about if you lose the wildcard by a game? How about if you lose out on home field advantage by a game? No, I will never accept that. I do not know if Aaron Boone makes those decisions or he is given direction by the analytics department. Every game is important and every game should be fully attempted to win. My beef is when this rest analytic stuff puts the Yankees in a poorer position to win the game.
That title is way too long! I could not think of a shorter one. Anyway, The New York Yankees have had the first two games of a cushy home series against the Orioles rained out. That is unfortunate as it would have been nice to have the easier opponent for a few games. Now they will have to play two double-headers to make up the losses. One will be on Wednesday. My question here is, despite not playing the last two days and having an off day on Thursday, how many Yankee regulars will have at least one game off during the double-header? My number is three with a lean toward over.
At this point, the "regulars" are: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Cameron Maybin, Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez. I can predict easily that Sanchez will sit one of the games as catchers never play both halves. Gleyber Torres seems to have a barking elbow, so he will sit at least one game. And Aaron Hicks is just coming back from the DL, so "caution" will dictate him sitting at least one of the games. Who is my fourth? Let's make it Brett Gardner who often sits one game of a double-header. That will mean that Hicks will play one game in center and Gardner the other.
I can somewhat understand Sanchez and Gleyber. Both are dinged a little and I get the catcher thing. That would be the only two *I* would rest. If Hicks is not healthy enough to be back and play two games, then he shouldn't be back.
But, do not be surprised if the Yankees, in their infinite wisdom and hell-fire desire to rest people, rest more than four. If so, I will be furious and it will not be the first time this season, nor will it be the last.
Let's talk about this rest thing for a minute. I did some work at baseball-reference.com to find out the adverse affects playing almost every game has on players. Obviously, I am not a numbers guru and there are flaws in my thinking. For example, I concentrate on OPS because figuring out first half and second half WAR would be beyond me. I still do not believe in the fielding statistics and no one has convinced me that they are not seriously flawed....still. So, I went by OPS. And you can follow along with my thought process with my spreadsheet on Google Sheets here (click on the word, "here").
What I found first that was interesting to me was that from 1940 to 2018, the average number of players that played nearly every game has remained around ten players per year. There are big swings and variations from year to year, but that average has held true for 70 years. But in the last five seasons, the average number of players playing at least 160 games has dropped to 7.8 players a year. So this idea of resting players is taking a hold on teams and began about five seasons ago.
There were 90 players who played 160 games or more in a season since 2010. Of those players, 51 of them or 57% had a worse second half than their first half. The same 90 produced 45 or exactly half as many worse Septembers than their season's OPS. Ten of them, or 10% played less than 100 games the following season. The latter statistic seems incidental and more of the fluke injury kind of thing.
There were several repeat players on the list. Hunter Pence did it twice and once way under-performed in the second half of the season and in the September and once way over-performed both. The same thing happened with Prince Fielder. Others that did it multiple times (more than two) had a season or two where they were worse in the second half and the last month and a season or two better. So there really was not a rhyme or reason for multiple full-season players.
There were some players who had amazing second halves and last months and some that had abysmal ones. The average season OPS among the 90 seasons was .809. The average OPS for the second half among the 90 was .802. And the last month of the season average was also .802. While there were a lot of variations among the 90, the averages as a whole do not fall off a cliff.
If I did notice one trend, it was that middle infielders seemed to suffer from playing almost every game more than most others. Among the few that really tanked in September (besides the one by Hunter Pence already mentioned) guys like Rougned Odor and Jonathan Schoop had September OPS figures in the .500s. That said, Alcides Escobar finished better in multiple seasons in the second half and the last month. So there isn't a global statement that can be mentioned about infielders.
Perhaps I should have used OPS+ or some of the Fangraphs.com stats to look at the splits. And please note that I am not anywhere close to proving anything. But my list just does not show a smoking gun that playing nearly every game means a player will be far less valuable later on in the season. Call it a conversation starter that others smarter than I can do the math justice.
I am willing to go so far as to say giving a player a day off during a long stretch is probably a good thing. I am not willing to move from my position that a player who is on a good roll should not skip a game during that roll. Nor do I think it necessary to give a player a day off when the schedule already has a day off that week or just recently. If a player is banged up a little and could use a day off combined with a scheduled day off is okay I guess.
I am just not okay with the idea that a game can be put at risk because you want to keep your best players on the bench to rest them. How about if you lose the division by a game? How about if you lose the wildcard by a game? How about if you lose out on home field advantage by a game? No, I will never accept that. I do not know if Aaron Boone makes those decisions or he is given direction by the analytics department. Every game is important and every game should be fully attempted to win. My beef is when this rest analytic stuff puts the Yankees in a poorer position to win the game.
Monday, May 13, 2019
The Yankees This Week
The New York Yankees' past week could not have gone more swimmingly. They took three of four from the fading Seattle Mariners (The Red Sox would demolish that team later in the week) and then went down to their personal house of horrors at Tropicana Field and took two of three from the front runners. Both of those wins came against the Bay Rays' stud pitchers, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Of course, they still haven't found a way to beat the abominable "Opener" whenever the Rays cheapen the game by using that strategy. Sorry, folks, just my opinion...
The best news of all came yesterday when Chad Green was called back from Triple-A and threw bullets and struck out three straight batters. Welcome back to greatness, Mr. Green.
And so the Yankees find themselves just a half a game back in the AL East and the Red Sox are starting to play like the Red Sox and are only three back. Everything is starting to gel just like I predicted it would. The Yanks have returned home to Yankee Stadium and this week will play the Baltimore Orioles and those same Rays for the weekend. The Red Sox will host the Rockies and the Astros this week.
I believe tonight will mark the return of Aaron Hicks. I don't know if that will be a good thing or not. Other teams get players back like the Rays did Austin Meadows and he hits moonshots all over the place. The Yankees get players back like Miguel Andujar and they get one hit in the month of May. I have to say that I was surprised that the Yankees sent Mike Tauchman down to the minors as the corresponding move. It seemed to me that it should have been Andujar who needs to get some playing time and figure things out. Perhaps he should have had that operation after all.
The Yankees also placed Jonathan Loaisiga on the DL for a shoulder strain (uh oh) and have called up Chance Adams, who might start tonight's game. Hmm...
Let's face it, the Yankees need to sweep the Orioles. Teams like the Orioles are going nowhere and the Yankees other AL East competitors have no problem beating the O's regularly. The Yankees need to do so as well. Anything short of a sweep will be disappointing. The Orioles have zero pitching. I mean, none. Baltimore is dead last in the AL in ERA and the Yankees face starters, David Hess, Andrew Cashner and Dan Straily. All three are struggling with perhaps Cashner being the best of the trio.
The Yankees will counter with Adams (perhaps), JA Happ and Domingo German. It would be nice if Adams could pitch well and give some hope that he is a prospect many have hoped he would be, especially after last year's abysmal three game debut. He is only 24. But the clock is ticking. The thing is, even if Adams blows up, the Yankees should win in a slugfest.
After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will host the Rays. Glasnow went on the DL right after his Yankee start, so they will not have to worry about him. But they cannot seem to hit Charlie Morton, Blake Snell is elite and, to be sure, there will be an opener in there somewhere.
When the Yankees have the Rays at home, they have to win and winning two of three would be great if they can do that again next weekend. It is a lot to expect from this continuing rag band of players, but they have spoiled us by keeping things interesting (understatement alert). A 6-1 week would be great. Anything less than 5-2 would be disappointing.
The best news of all came yesterday when Chad Green was called back from Triple-A and threw bullets and struck out three straight batters. Welcome back to greatness, Mr. Green.
And so the Yankees find themselves just a half a game back in the AL East and the Red Sox are starting to play like the Red Sox and are only three back. Everything is starting to gel just like I predicted it would. The Yanks have returned home to Yankee Stadium and this week will play the Baltimore Orioles and those same Rays for the weekend. The Red Sox will host the Rockies and the Astros this week.
I believe tonight will mark the return of Aaron Hicks. I don't know if that will be a good thing or not. Other teams get players back like the Rays did Austin Meadows and he hits moonshots all over the place. The Yankees get players back like Miguel Andujar and they get one hit in the month of May. I have to say that I was surprised that the Yankees sent Mike Tauchman down to the minors as the corresponding move. It seemed to me that it should have been Andujar who needs to get some playing time and figure things out. Perhaps he should have had that operation after all.
The Yankees also placed Jonathan Loaisiga on the DL for a shoulder strain (uh oh) and have called up Chance Adams, who might start tonight's game. Hmm...
Let's face it, the Yankees need to sweep the Orioles. Teams like the Orioles are going nowhere and the Yankees other AL East competitors have no problem beating the O's regularly. The Yankees need to do so as well. Anything short of a sweep will be disappointing. The Orioles have zero pitching. I mean, none. Baltimore is dead last in the AL in ERA and the Yankees face starters, David Hess, Andrew Cashner and Dan Straily. All three are struggling with perhaps Cashner being the best of the trio.
The Yankees will counter with Adams (perhaps), JA Happ and Domingo German. It would be nice if Adams could pitch well and give some hope that he is a prospect many have hoped he would be, especially after last year's abysmal three game debut. He is only 24. But the clock is ticking. The thing is, even if Adams blows up, the Yankees should win in a slugfest.
After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will host the Rays. Glasnow went on the DL right after his Yankee start, so they will not have to worry about him. But they cannot seem to hit Charlie Morton, Blake Snell is elite and, to be sure, there will be an opener in there somewhere.
When the Yankees have the Rays at home, they have to win and winning two of three would be great if they can do that again next weekend. It is a lot to expect from this continuing rag band of players, but they have spoiled us by keeping things interesting (understatement alert). A 6-1 week would be great. Anything less than 5-2 would be disappointing.
Thursday, May 09, 2019
Returning Injured Yankees Can Be A Problem
The New York Yankees projected a powerhouse lineup to begin the 2019 season but all that was derailed by injuries up and down the potent cast. While it is anyone's guess when Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius return, there have begun a slow dribble of returning players such as Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar. And perhaps this weekend might see the return of Aaron Hicks. Such returns are not always good things.
Teams get into a sort of rhythm with regular games occurring nearly every day. This group of Yankee scrubs have been playing together for a while and have gelled and have given Yankee fans unexpected thrills along the way.
Suddenly that flow gets interrupted when a player returns. Gary Sanchez is probably an exception to that statement because he is so much better than the alternatives. But others have to shake off the rust, may take a while to get going and could under-perform the scrubs who have been playing regularly.
Miguel Andujar is a strong case in point. Last year, Andujar arrived with a bang. He has come back from the DL with a whimper. He started a couple of games at third forcing Gio Urshela back to the bench. The result might have led to that loss to the Twins. He has started in the field three games and has made three errors, shown limited range and hasn't hit his weight.
How is Aaron Hicks going to start when he rejoins the Yankees? Will he show obvious signs of rust? Will he start slowly at the plate? Those are the risks that occur when you replace a guy who is in the flow of things with a guy with better talent coming back from an injury. Who will the Yankees send down when Hicks returns? Will it be Mike Tauchman who has held his own at the plate (around one bad slump) and has played a terrific outfield? Or will it be Thairo Estrada, who has also shown good leather plus a good bat and is much more versatile than Andujar?
What I am trying to say here is that a return of regulars does not always push immediate buttons and sometimes leads to a bit of a downturn in on-field performance until the returnees get settled in. If you want to read more, Chris Carelli wrote a good perspective on some problems that develop like this in his SNY piece today.
In other thoughts, losing James Paxton for three weeks to a month might be the most damaging of all the injuries the Yankees have suffered thus far. Paxton was developing into the Yankee ace he was expected to be. The slack left by Luis Severino has been picked up by Domingo German. But nobody is going to bring what Paxton brings to the Yankees. Last night's lopsided loss was a testament to how much that loss hurts.
The loss of Dellin Betances has been felt all season as the Yankees seem to be one arm short all the time in the bullpen. If Paxton was to miss more time than a month, the rotation would have an equally harmful hole and necessitate Brian Cashman to lose prospects to bring in another starting pitcher.
Teams get into a sort of rhythm with regular games occurring nearly every day. This group of Yankee scrubs have been playing together for a while and have gelled and have given Yankee fans unexpected thrills along the way.
Suddenly that flow gets interrupted when a player returns. Gary Sanchez is probably an exception to that statement because he is so much better than the alternatives. But others have to shake off the rust, may take a while to get going and could under-perform the scrubs who have been playing regularly.
Miguel Andujar is a strong case in point. Last year, Andujar arrived with a bang. He has come back from the DL with a whimper. He started a couple of games at third forcing Gio Urshela back to the bench. The result might have led to that loss to the Twins. He has started in the field three games and has made three errors, shown limited range and hasn't hit his weight.
How is Aaron Hicks going to start when he rejoins the Yankees? Will he show obvious signs of rust? Will he start slowly at the plate? Those are the risks that occur when you replace a guy who is in the flow of things with a guy with better talent coming back from an injury. Who will the Yankees send down when Hicks returns? Will it be Mike Tauchman who has held his own at the plate (around one bad slump) and has played a terrific outfield? Or will it be Thairo Estrada, who has also shown good leather plus a good bat and is much more versatile than Andujar?
What I am trying to say here is that a return of regulars does not always push immediate buttons and sometimes leads to a bit of a downturn in on-field performance until the returnees get settled in. If you want to read more, Chris Carelli wrote a good perspective on some problems that develop like this in his SNY piece today.
In other thoughts, losing James Paxton for three weeks to a month might be the most damaging of all the injuries the Yankees have suffered thus far. Paxton was developing into the Yankee ace he was expected to be. The slack left by Luis Severino has been picked up by Domingo German. But nobody is going to bring what Paxton brings to the Yankees. Last night's lopsided loss was a testament to how much that loss hurts.
The loss of Dellin Betances has been felt all season as the Yankees seem to be one arm short all the time in the bullpen. If Paxton was to miss more time than a month, the rotation would have an equally harmful hole and necessitate Brian Cashman to lose prospects to bring in another starting pitcher.
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Some Unsung Babe Ruth Facts
The idea for this post developed while I was searching if Babe Ruth ever hit a home run, stole a base and pitched in the same game. I had heard some facts on Pablo Sandoval and his exploits of that trifecta being the first time anyone had performed such a feat since 1905. And no, Babe Ruth never hit a home run and stole a base in the same game that he pitched. But checking it out and looking at Babe Ruth's baseball-reference.com page did show me some things that blew my mind. So I thought I would share them with you.
There are two ways you can tell analytics did not exist back in Babe Ruth's time and one of those also showed how much animosity the press had with Ruth back in his playing time:
Most people think of Babe Ruth as the Yankees' right fielder. And for the latter third of his career, he mostly was. But Babe Ruth started almost as many games in his career as a left fielder as he did in right. Ruth started 1120 games in right field during his career and 1040 in left. He also started 64 games in center field and another 23 at first base. Ruth was lousy at first but he had a higher than league average fielding percentage in all three outfield positions. I don't know how b-ref figured range figures for back then, but according to them, Ruth also had better range than league average at all three outfield positions. He was not just a fat guy who slugged homers.
Babe Ruth won all three of his World Series pitching starts (all with the Red Sox). In those games, he pitched 31 innings and gave up three runs on 19 hits. His one start in 1916 lasted fourteen innings and he pitched them all to get the win.
Ruth's World Series OPS at 1.214 in 41 games was higher than his career average of 1.164. He was the original Mr. October. Between his pitching and batting careers, he won eight World Series titles.
Babe Ruth was the best pitcher in baseball in 1916. He led the league in starts with 40, ERA at 1.75, Shut outs (9), and hits per nine innings. He did not give up a home run that entire season. He was nearly as good in 1917 but gave up two homers that season. Add that up and he pitched 650 innings, gave up only 474 hits and only gave up two homers. He was a better pitcher than people realize.
Sometimes, we get images of the great Babe Ruth striking out and it makes us think he struck out a lot. But in all of his seasons, he struck out more than 89 times only twice (93, 90). Lest you think he was only a three outcome kind of guy, he batted higher than .350 eight times in his career.
Babe Ruth led the lead in extra base hits (doubles + triples + homers) six times in his career. In 1921, he had 119 of them (out of 204 hits). That has been a MLB record ever since. It was only threatened once by Lou Gehrig who had 117 in 1927. Barry Bonds had 107 in 2001 and that has been the closest anyone has been since. As you can imagine, Ruth's 457 total bases that season was only threatened once, by Rogers Hornsby with 450. That single season total has also been a record since 1921.
Babe Ruth led the league in Runs Scored eight times and seven times scored more than 150 runs in a season.
I could probably go on a lot longer, but I'm getting hungry. Sometimes I wish I had a time machine so I could go back and watch Babe Ruth play. Yes, I know it was a segregated game back when Babe Ruth played. Even so, no one has ever dominated the sport like he did.
There are two ways you can tell analytics did not exist back in Babe Ruth's time and one of those also showed how much animosity the press had with Ruth back in his playing time:
- During his post-pitching career--basically from 1919 on, Babe Ruth sacrifice bunted 99 times in his career. What!? The most fearsome hitter of his era (or perhaps any era) gave himself up 99 times. Either his managers were dopes or Ruth did those things on his own to try to be a team player. In 1930, Babe hit 49 homers and batted .359 with a 1.225 OPS. Incredible numbers, but even so, he had 21 sacrifice bunts that season after having 13 the season before. At the peak of his powers, he either was asked to bunt or bunted on his own 66 times in a five year period. He even had 14 Sacrifices in 1927 when he hit 60 homers. Bob Shawkey was his manager in 1930. The team finished third that season. Joe McCarthy took over the following season and Babe Ruth never had another sacrifice bunt.
- Babe Ruth only won one MVP Award. That was in 1923. The award was re-instituted in 1922 after a hiatus since 1914. Ridiculously, Babe Ruth did not get another MVP vote (not a single vote in between) until 1931 when he finished fifth. The following year, Ruth finished sixth. In contrast, Lou Gehrig won two MVP's and finished in the top five six other times. Babe Ruth played fifteen seasons for the Yankees and hit 659 homers during that time with a compiled 135.5 Wins Above Replacement during those seasons and only received MVP votes in three of those seasons. What a crock.
Most people think of Babe Ruth as the Yankees' right fielder. And for the latter third of his career, he mostly was. But Babe Ruth started almost as many games in his career as a left fielder as he did in right. Ruth started 1120 games in right field during his career and 1040 in left. He also started 64 games in center field and another 23 at first base. Ruth was lousy at first but he had a higher than league average fielding percentage in all three outfield positions. I don't know how b-ref figured range figures for back then, but according to them, Ruth also had better range than league average at all three outfield positions. He was not just a fat guy who slugged homers.
Babe Ruth won all three of his World Series pitching starts (all with the Red Sox). In those games, he pitched 31 innings and gave up three runs on 19 hits. His one start in 1916 lasted fourteen innings and he pitched them all to get the win.
Ruth's World Series OPS at 1.214 in 41 games was higher than his career average of 1.164. He was the original Mr. October. Between his pitching and batting careers, he won eight World Series titles.
Babe Ruth was the best pitcher in baseball in 1916. He led the league in starts with 40, ERA at 1.75, Shut outs (9), and hits per nine innings. He did not give up a home run that entire season. He was nearly as good in 1917 but gave up two homers that season. Add that up and he pitched 650 innings, gave up only 474 hits and only gave up two homers. He was a better pitcher than people realize.
Sometimes, we get images of the great Babe Ruth striking out and it makes us think he struck out a lot. But in all of his seasons, he struck out more than 89 times only twice (93, 90). Lest you think he was only a three outcome kind of guy, he batted higher than .350 eight times in his career.
Babe Ruth led the lead in extra base hits (doubles + triples + homers) six times in his career. In 1921, he had 119 of them (out of 204 hits). That has been a MLB record ever since. It was only threatened once by Lou Gehrig who had 117 in 1927. Barry Bonds had 107 in 2001 and that has been the closest anyone has been since. As you can imagine, Ruth's 457 total bases that season was only threatened once, by Rogers Hornsby with 450. That single season total has also been a record since 1921.
Babe Ruth led the league in Runs Scored eight times and seven times scored more than 150 runs in a season.
I could probably go on a lot longer, but I'm getting hungry. Sometimes I wish I had a time machine so I could go back and watch Babe Ruth play. Yes, I know it was a segregated game back when Babe Ruth played. Even so, no one has ever dominated the sport like he did.
Monday, May 06, 2019
The Yankees This Week - Seattle and Tampa Bay
The New York Yankees enter the second week in May and continue to hang on despite their incredible string of injuries. The two-game sweep by Arizona last week was unfortunate but taking two of three from a much-improved Minnesota Twins helped ease the pain a little bit. This could be an important week as the Yankees face two unexpectedly good teams in the Mariners and Bay Rays.
As expected, the Red Sox are starting to right their ship and are only a game under .500. They just lost David Price with elbow problems, but are in good shape otherwise. Also as expected, the Rays are not running away with the AL East as the opening weeks of the season seemed to portend. I did not believe it then and I do not believe it now. Still, they are a smart team and will pose problems for the Yankees this coming weekend, especially at their stink-house, Tropicana Field. More on that later.
First, the Yankees must deal with the Seattle Mariners who come to Yankee Stadium for a four-game set. The Mariners started on fire and were the big story (along with the Rays) in the AL at the start of the season. But they have lost nine of the team's last twelve games and the Astros have regained their expected spot at the top of the AL West. Frankly, the Mariners are a team with a ton of holes.
First off, the Mariners' current rotation consists of Felix Hernandez who, at this stage of his career, sort of resembles Pedro Martinez in his Mets days. There has been a lot of gas leaked out of his arm over the long haul and his reputation will get him a while, but he's no longer a great pitcher. The rest of the rotation consists of Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez (who will come back to earth), Yusei Kikuchi and Eric Swanson. Despite Gonzalez's early success, Kikuchi and Swanson might be their best two. The Yankees will face the entire rotation except for Swanson.
The Mariners lead the American League in homers. Who saw that coming? But along with those homers comes many, many strikeouts as they lead the AL in that category too. This drags their OPS down to third in the AL and falling. However, Edwin Encarnacion always gives the Yankees fits and they have a DH named, Daniel Vogelbach, who is killing the ball and does not strike out a lot. Mitch Haniger is probably the team's best all-around player.
The Yankees will start CC Sabathia tonight which means two starting pitchers with 951 combined MLB starts, but their better days behind them. Which one can spin the most magic tonight? Masahiro Tanaka--always a 50-50 proposition--will be battling with Marco Estrada tomorrow. The Yankees have not announced a starter for Wednesday, but it could be Jonathan Loaisiga taking what was James Paxton's spot. JA Happ will face Kikuchi on Thursday.
Clint Frazier is back and in the lineup for the Yankees tonight and will play right field. That should help. The Yankees have wisely listened to me (heh) and are DHing Miguel Andujar and starting Gio Urshela at third. Nice. The lineup looks more potent than it has in more than a week now but Luke Voit has been slumping the last couple of games.
It would be nice if the Yankees could win three of four of these games and they are certainly capable of that. The Mariners' bullpen and the Yankees' bullpen have both been an adventure and it might come down to which team's pen performs better. The minimum is that the Yankees have to at least split this series.
After Thursday's game, the Yankees will fly down to that house of horrors in St. Petersburg to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' offense is just middle of the road and the Yankees will catch them with Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows on the DL. Meadows has been a nice break out star and losing him hurts the Rays. Brandon Lowe and Tommy Pham are their two best remaining offensive players.
It will be a tough three game series for the Yankees offensively. They will miss Charlie Morton who gives them fits, but they will probably see Blake Snell at the end of the weekend (though he has struggled a bit lately) and definitely will see this year's wunderkind, Taylor Glasnow. Glasnow has been amazing thus far. I mean, super amazing.
There is a possibility of Aaron Hicks being ready for the weekend series, but frankly, the Yankees should wait until after the Tampa series. Why have Hicks running around on that green concrete as his first taste back?
My gut feelings is that facing Snell and Glasnow and thinking about the Yankees at that horror field and their lack of success there, the Yankees will be fortunate to win one of the three games. That is why winning three against the Mariners is important. This is certainly a week where the Yankees need to hold their own because, on review, it could be a long, long week for Yankee fans.
As expected, the Red Sox are starting to right their ship and are only a game under .500. They just lost David Price with elbow problems, but are in good shape otherwise. Also as expected, the Rays are not running away with the AL East as the opening weeks of the season seemed to portend. I did not believe it then and I do not believe it now. Still, they are a smart team and will pose problems for the Yankees this coming weekend, especially at their stink-house, Tropicana Field. More on that later.
First, the Yankees must deal with the Seattle Mariners who come to Yankee Stadium for a four-game set. The Mariners started on fire and were the big story (along with the Rays) in the AL at the start of the season. But they have lost nine of the team's last twelve games and the Astros have regained their expected spot at the top of the AL West. Frankly, the Mariners are a team with a ton of holes.
First off, the Mariners' current rotation consists of Felix Hernandez who, at this stage of his career, sort of resembles Pedro Martinez in his Mets days. There has been a lot of gas leaked out of his arm over the long haul and his reputation will get him a while, but he's no longer a great pitcher. The rest of the rotation consists of Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez (who will come back to earth), Yusei Kikuchi and Eric Swanson. Despite Gonzalez's early success, Kikuchi and Swanson might be their best two. The Yankees will face the entire rotation except for Swanson.
The Mariners lead the American League in homers. Who saw that coming? But along with those homers comes many, many strikeouts as they lead the AL in that category too. This drags their OPS down to third in the AL and falling. However, Edwin Encarnacion always gives the Yankees fits and they have a DH named, Daniel Vogelbach, who is killing the ball and does not strike out a lot. Mitch Haniger is probably the team's best all-around player.
The Yankees will start CC Sabathia tonight which means two starting pitchers with 951 combined MLB starts, but their better days behind them. Which one can spin the most magic tonight? Masahiro Tanaka--always a 50-50 proposition--will be battling with Marco Estrada tomorrow. The Yankees have not announced a starter for Wednesday, but it could be Jonathan Loaisiga taking what was James Paxton's spot. JA Happ will face Kikuchi on Thursday.
Clint Frazier is back and in the lineup for the Yankees tonight and will play right field. That should help. The Yankees have wisely listened to me (heh) and are DHing Miguel Andujar and starting Gio Urshela at third. Nice. The lineup looks more potent than it has in more than a week now but Luke Voit has been slumping the last couple of games.
It would be nice if the Yankees could win three of four of these games and they are certainly capable of that. The Mariners' bullpen and the Yankees' bullpen have both been an adventure and it might come down to which team's pen performs better. The minimum is that the Yankees have to at least split this series.
After Thursday's game, the Yankees will fly down to that house of horrors in St. Petersburg to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' offense is just middle of the road and the Yankees will catch them with Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows on the DL. Meadows has been a nice break out star and losing him hurts the Rays. Brandon Lowe and Tommy Pham are their two best remaining offensive players.
It will be a tough three game series for the Yankees offensively. They will miss Charlie Morton who gives them fits, but they will probably see Blake Snell at the end of the weekend (though he has struggled a bit lately) and definitely will see this year's wunderkind, Taylor Glasnow. Glasnow has been amazing thus far. I mean, super amazing.
There is a possibility of Aaron Hicks being ready for the weekend series, but frankly, the Yankees should wait until after the Tampa series. Why have Hicks running around on that green concrete as his first taste back?
My gut feelings is that facing Snell and Glasnow and thinking about the Yankees at that horror field and their lack of success there, the Yankees will be fortunate to win one of the three games. That is why winning three against the Mariners is important. This is certainly a week where the Yankees need to hold their own because, on review, it could be a long, long week for Yankee fans.
Thursday, May 02, 2019
The Biggest Cover Up On The Planet - Jacoby Ellsbury
The new norm in American culture is the conspiracy theory. Trump this, Obama that, Hillary this, Attorney General Barr that. But you can forget all about those and the FBI election secrets. Those are all chump change when it comes to the Jacoby Ellsbury / Yankees cover up and conspiracy. Can we get a subpoena for Jacoby Ellsbury to talk to Congress?
As far as I can tell, Jacoby Ellsbury has not talked to anyone in a long, long time. Do a Google search and look for the last time Jacoby Ellsbury was quoted as saying anything. I could not find anything. Can you? Oh wait! I found one here.
The last time that Jacoby Ellsbury suited up for baseball was during the 2017 playoffs. He went zero for 12 with two walks. That was the end. Zip. Nada. Nothing since. His contract was for $168 million spread out over seven years. The contract has this year and next year to go and then a $5 million buyout. So your grand total is $173 million for what has thus far added up to 8 fWAR or 10 rWAR depending on which system you like better.
Here is what we know: Sometime after the 2017 post season and in Spring Training 2018, Ellsbury pulled an oblique muscle during batting practice. According to MLB.com, After that injury, Ellsbury and the Yankees tried a number of avenues to deal with the injury to no avail and he had arthroscopic surgery performed by Dr. Bryan Kelly on his hip (hip?) to repair a torn labrum. Somehow his injury went from his oblique to his sacroiliac and all that led to a hip surgery. Yes, the stomach bone is connected to the hip bone, etc.
The surgery ended his 2018 season that never began and recovery time was pegged for six months. There was talk that he was going to show up for Spring Training on March 5 or 6, but that never happened and the lights went dark other than his name being among the multitude of injured Yankees.
There have been reports that the Yankees have given away his locker. Hmm...interesting. But, what seals the conspiracy aspect of this are the words of Aaron Boone on April 28. Let's look at them from a New York Post story and keep in mind how vague they are:
As far as I can tell, Jacoby Ellsbury has not talked to anyone in a long, long time. Do a Google search and look for the last time Jacoby Ellsbury was quoted as saying anything. I could not find anything. Can you? Oh wait! I found one here.
The last time that Jacoby Ellsbury suited up for baseball was during the 2017 playoffs. He went zero for 12 with two walks. That was the end. Zip. Nada. Nothing since. His contract was for $168 million spread out over seven years. The contract has this year and next year to go and then a $5 million buyout. So your grand total is $173 million for what has thus far added up to 8 fWAR or 10 rWAR depending on which system you like better.
Here is what we know: Sometime after the 2017 post season and in Spring Training 2018, Ellsbury pulled an oblique muscle during batting practice. According to MLB.com, After that injury, Ellsbury and the Yankees tried a number of avenues to deal with the injury to no avail and he had arthroscopic surgery performed by Dr. Bryan Kelly on his hip (hip?) to repair a torn labrum. Somehow his injury went from his oblique to his sacroiliac and all that led to a hip surgery. Yes, the stomach bone is connected to the hip bone, etc.
The surgery ended his 2018 season that never began and recovery time was pegged for six months. There was talk that he was going to show up for Spring Training on March 5 or 6, but that never happened and the lights went dark other than his name being among the multitude of injured Yankees.
There have been reports that the Yankees have given away his locker. Hmm...interesting. But, what seals the conspiracy aspect of this are the words of Aaron Boone on April 28. Let's look at them from a New York Post story and keep in mind how vague they are:
Before the Yankees’ 6-4 win over the Giants on Saturday at Oracle Park, manager Aaron Boone said Jacoby Ellsbury is “dealing with different things” and that “a number of little things that continue to pop up.’’
Ellsbury is on theIL(DL!) after having hip surgery last year, and Boone said the outfielder is dealing with shoulder and hip problems. Ellsbury hasn’t played in a big league game since 2017 because of a long list of ailments.
“Certainly not in the short term,’’ Boone said when asked about Ellsbury making it back to the team.
Compare the vagueness of that answer to any other time Boone has been asked about an injury. He usually says things like: "The doctor says that the metacarpal is still sore and there is some swelling still that has to be dealt with before he can start baseball activities." I made that up, of course, but those are the types of answers both Boone and Brian Cashman give when questioned.
But what does Boone say about Ellsbury? "Umm...ahh...he is dealing with different things and a number of little things that continue to pop up." Okay...right. Ellsbury has once again been pushed to the 60-day disabled list.
You would have to assume that the Yankees have insurance on Ellsbury's contract. You would have to assume that they collected on that insurance last year. Another missed year for Ellsbury would mean more insurance payments, right? Wrong? Probably. Is the vagueness some sort of buffer to continue the insurance payments? Ellsbury's not talking. Boone is not talking specifics. It stinks or at least smells badly.
It seems pretty certain that Jacoby Ellsbury will never play for the Yankees again. If they can ever get healthy, the team has Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Brett Gardner. There is no room on that dance card, especially for a guy who was not very good the last time he played and has since missed two years of baseball.
I have never seen a situation like this one with the Yankees and a bad free agent signing. I've seen teams dump players. I've seen one bad contract traded for another. I've seen a now-terrible player still playing. But I've never seen a bad free agent signing hidden away and buried. Perhaps the conspiracy thing is tongue-in-cheek, but maybe it isn't.
**********************************************************************
I was listening to a sports radio program. I wish I could remember which one and the guest on the program was a former basketball NBA star. I cannot remember which one of those he was either, especially since I have not followed the NBA since Bill Bradley retired. But something about that interview stuck in my head.
The player was asked why his team never had many injuries and other NBA teams have lots of injuries. The player responded that much depends on the type of fitness people you hire. Some teams make it a super-high priority and others do not. I found that to be interesting.
Then, I thought about the Yankees. If you look at a lot of the injuries they have sustained thus far, many of them have been muscular. Judge had an oblique tear. Stanton had a bicep problem. Hicks has soreness in his back. Clint Frazier sprained an ankle. I believe Sanchez's injury was muscle related. Does that go back to the Yankees' fitness people? Are they not performing the correct exercises for the range of motion of playing baseball? Do they not stretch properly?
The statements by the former NBA player and the injuries to the Yankees, not only this year, but last year, make me wonder. I do not want people to lose good jobs, but I think it warrants further investigation by a team so dominated by metrics.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)