The bottom line for the New York Yankees 2019 has a nice flush to it at the mid-point of August. The team has a healthy ten-game lead on the second place Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox are out of it (if not mathematically). And the Yankees are fighting among three teams for the best record in baseball. Those are all good things, right? Then why do I worry so much? Is it just my nature to worry? Or are my concerns legitimate? Let me list them out.
Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge does not look fearsome at the plate. If anything, he looks tepid and easy to pitch to. His fly ball rate has shriveled up. He seems to have lost his sense of the strike zone. Pitchers are exploiting his weaknesses at will (good pitchers and not-so-good pitchers alike). What is wrong with the big guy? Has he lost his way? Is it just a slump? Is it lingering effects of his torn abdominal muscle? When he is right, he adds a dimension of fear into the Yankees' lineup. It gives fans a sense of anticipation and hope. None of those things are there right now. Gosh, I hope it is just a slump.
Bullpen Walks
Nobody seems concerned that all the big guns in the bullpen cannot manage to pitch an inning without a walk or two. It concerns me greatly. Adam Ottavino has more walks allowed than Domingo German and CC Sabathia. He is only two behind Masahiro Tanaka and three behind JA Happ. Zack Britton is only three walks behind Ottavino. Even closer, Aroldis Chapman is walking four batters per nine innings. The addition of Jonathan Loaisiga does not help that proposition with his five walks per nine.
Sooner or later, these walks will catch up to the bullpen. In many ways, it already has. Ottavino coughed up a lead this week. I long for two things. One is 1-2-3 innings from these "big" relievers. And two, I long for each and every one of them to stop fooling around with two strikes and go after the hitters. Tommy Kahnle is the only one who consistently throws strikes when he comes in to pitch.
Starting Pitching
Yes, there have been some better starts lately. But they have come against bad teams. I have absolutely no confidence in any starter as a "shut down" pitcher and none of them can consistently get to the fifth inning with less than 100 pitches. Paxton has been showing signs of figuring things out. But put five good starts together before any kind of comfort level returns. Tanaka is a different pitcher in each and every outing. Which he will be on any particular night is impossible to predict. And Happ is just not there. He cannot get his fastball command no matter how often he pitches.
Injuries Continue
Yes, the big story has been the "next man up" mentality shown by fill in players playing for the Yankees' stars. But how soon does Cameron Maybin return to what he has always been before? Will the magic last for Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela? Do you really want Mike Ford getting post season at bats? Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks have been total injury busts. Luke Voit might get back at the end of August. Edwin Encarnacion was just starting to deliver and he is gone. It just never seems to end. Does it worry anyone else that this "magic" can turn to sawdust at any time? Will these surprising players hold up against post season pitching? Its worrisome.
The other thing about injuries is the lack of continuity it causes. Somebody comes back, has to get his timing back and then hope that he does not get injured again. The great Katy Sharp told me that the Yankees have had the same lineup less than five times all season. Holy smokes!
Aaron Boone And The Bullpen
The Yankees' manager has been exemplary in most ways this season. The success has to be given to him at least partly for his indefatigable nature. But one area of weakness is the opposite of Joe Girardi's. Girardi always had too quick of a hook. Boone always seems to be two to three outs too late. He completely ruined the feel good story of Brady Lail the other night by pitching him an inning too long. Now the poor guy has been DFA'd. I hope you had a nice moment, Brady. Luis Cessa always pitches an inning too long as does Nester Cortez Jr. It has been a consistent problem. Add in the pressure of the post season and what happens?
So, yes, I should be rolling along with this train as it rides toward what seems to be a division win. I should be enjoying this ride. But I do not. I worry. I fret. And I hope like everything that my fears are all unfounded.
Thursday, August 15, 2019
Monday, August 05, 2019
Bad Luck Yankees Or Is It More
The good news is that the New York Yankees keep winning. They just completed a sweep of the Boston Red Sox, the erstwhile defending champs who cannot seem to get out of their own way. They are still nine ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the loss column despite that the Rays seem to play one awful team after another and keep winning. They are fighting the dang-fangled and brilliant Astros for the best record in the AL. But the injuries just keep coming and coming. Are these injuries just bad luck? Or could they have been more preventable?
I keep going back to a conversation I heard on talk radio. I cannot remember the NBA player who was being interviewed nor the specifics. But I remember the gist of it. The question was posed to him if his team was more successful than this other contending team because they were able to stay healthier. His answer resonated with me. He said there was a reason why the other team was injured more often and that was because this player's team made sure to hire the most brilliant conditioners and the other team did not.
Is that statement made by an athlete in the most demanding physical sport of the top sports relevant to the Yankees? It could be. Some of the Yankee injuries could not be conditioned against. Edwin Encarnacion getting hit by a pitch has nothing to do with conditioning. Miguel Andujar tearing his labrum on a dive back to third could not be prevented with conditioning. CC Sabathia's knee is just wearing out. There is nothing to see there.
But it is all these muscular issues that baffle me. Here is a partial list:
That is a lot of muscle issues and it is just a partial list! Back in April, the blog, Bleeding Yankee Blue posed the question strongly and yet here is is months later and there is total silence on any fallout of what all these injuries mean as far as any team or coach culpability.
Here are the questions I would like to see answered about this issue:
I think fans have a right to know this kind of information. And it would definitely be something to want to know if the situation is as bad as it seems and costs the Yankees a wonderful chance at a World Championship.
I keep going back to a conversation I heard on talk radio. I cannot remember the NBA player who was being interviewed nor the specifics. But I remember the gist of it. The question was posed to him if his team was more successful than this other contending team because they were able to stay healthier. His answer resonated with me. He said there was a reason why the other team was injured more often and that was because this player's team made sure to hire the most brilliant conditioners and the other team did not.
Is that statement made by an athlete in the most demanding physical sport of the top sports relevant to the Yankees? It could be. Some of the Yankee injuries could not be conditioned against. Edwin Encarnacion getting hit by a pitch has nothing to do with conditioning. Miguel Andujar tearing his labrum on a dive back to third could not be prevented with conditioning. CC Sabathia's knee is just wearing out. There is nothing to see there.
But it is all these muscular issues that baffle me. Here is a partial list:
- Aaron Judge with an abdominal strain
- Giancarlo Stanton's original bicep strain.
- Gary Sanchez with a groin injury and another strain before that one.
- Luis Severino who after his shoulder problem experienced a lat strain.
- Dellin Betances who is in the same boat as Severino.
- Gleyber Torres has a core issue
- DJ LeMahieu had a core issue.
- Cameron Maybin had a calf strain
- Domingo German had a hip-flexor strain.
That is a lot of muscle issues and it is just a partial list! Back in April, the blog, Bleeding Yankee Blue posed the question strongly and yet here is is months later and there is total silence on any fallout of what all these injuries mean as far as any team or coach culpability.
Here are the questions I would like to see answered about this issue:
- Do the players buy in to the Strength and Conditioning program?
- If not, why not?
- Should contracts deal with player's specific training regimens?
- Should players who have their own Strength and Conditioning people be approved by the team's staff?
- How does the amount of money the Yankees spend on Strength and Conditioning compare to other teams?
- How does the Yankees' staff compare on the national or regional market? Are they highly rated?
- Do all these strategic days off given to players help or hinder them in a muscular conditioning way? And how would they know? It does not seem to help any from what I can see.
I think fans have a right to know this kind of information. And it would definitely be something to want to know if the situation is as bad as it seems and costs the Yankees a wonderful chance at a World Championship.
Monday, July 22, 2019
The Impossible Road Of The Colorado Rockies
I started thinking about the Colorado Rockies during their weekend series with the New York Yankees. I would not say I feel sorry for the players, fans or team. Baseball is baseball and is a treasure to play, watch and experience. I would say that the team and its fans have a nearly impossible task to sustain viability and long-term success. It has impossible to sustain pitching or provide batters with any kind of consistency and respect. Players for the Rockies are doubted for Hall Of Fame consideration and for post-season awards such as the MVP. There seems to be this hopelessness that anything can ever change for the Rockies.
Let's take the current baseball season for the Rockies as it seems typical. The Rockies have been in existence since 1993. During that time, they have never finished in first place in their division. They made it to the World Series once and were promptly swept. That was the only season the team also made it to the NLCS. The Rockies have won 90 games in a season only three times with none of them coming back to back.
The 2019 current Rockies' season is typical because the Rockies had a good season a year ago. They won 90 games. They were the wildcard team for the second straight season and actually won the one-game play-in to make it to the NLDS. Once again, they were swept in that series. This year, as has happened many times in the past, they have fallen back and barring an extraordinary run, will not be a wild card team.
And what of their best players? Larry Walker and Todd Helton had remarkably similar offensive careers. Walker compiled 72 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in his great career while Helton compiled 61 WAR. Walker has thus far been denied a place in to the Hall Of Fame. Helton will likely never get close.
I believe that Larry Walker is the only Rockies player to receive an MVP Award. Helton never came close even though he led the league in WAR the year 2000. He had another amazing season in 2001 and came in ninth in the MVP voting despite having the fifth best WAR total (behind a quartet of juicers).
Throughout the years, the Rockies have not been able to sustain pitching. Ubaldo Jimenez came in third in Cy Young Award voting in 2010 and quickly fell on his sword the following season and was never the same. Kyle Freeland came in fourth in Cy Young Award voting last season and has a FIP over six this season.
Anyone who has a little baseball knowledge has already known what the problem has been for the Rockies though I have not stated it directly. And to state it plainly, the location of where the Rockies play their home games is the problem. And it is a problem that seems to defy mending.
The problem is not Coors Field. That is a beautiful ballpark with a 4.7 fan rating (out of five) with over 15 thousand reviews. The team draws really well. The fans come out in droves. So it is not the venue and it is not the lack of local support (unlike, say, the Tampa Bay Rays). The problem is playing baseball in Denver, Colorado.
There is a baseball term called the Ballpark Factor. This "factor" basically calculates whether the ballpark is easier for the batter or the pitcher. A 100 score is considered neutral where neither the batter nor the pitcher have the advantage. There are some venues that favor hitters. Everyone knows which they are: Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, Camden Yards, Citizens Back Park, Miller Park, Globe Life Park and maybe one or two more.
Most of those venues favor the batters less than you would think. Globe Life Park in Texas has historically been one of the best batters parks. And their 109 Ballpark Factor rating shows that. The rest are in the 103 to 106 range. For some reason, Camden Yards is up to 109 this season which is higher than historical. Now compare all these fine places to hit with Coors Field. I will start a new paragraph to give the facts there as they are astounding.
Coors Field has a historical Ballpark Factor of 121. This year, for some reason, it sits at 128. That is an astounding number. It is ten to twenty points higher than the other worst pitching parks and more than twenty over what is considered neutral. No other venue comes close. Again, this is not a Coors Field problem. The dimensions at Coors are huge compared to other parks. The right field and left field lines are forty to fifty feet longer than Yankee Stadium!
It is the thin air of Denver that makes baseball impossible to sustain at Coors Field. The talk for years has been that breaking pitches do not break and the ball simply has less resistance when it is hit. How does this affect the road / home results for the team?
The batters and pitchers have had an awful time adjusting to either being on the road (batters) or at home (pitchers) and this is a historical problem. In 2019, the Rockies have a team batting OPS of .894 at Coors. That is an incredibly high OPS which means that team players are batting at elite levels there. But on the road, it is a different story. The team's road OPS is .658. The difference is striking and telling.
And this is nothing new. Last year was similar: .852 at home and .665 on the road. The year before (2017) was .862 at home and .703 on the road. Go back ten years to 2010 to take a historical look at the numbers are the same, .866 and .652. Go back twenty years and it was, .941 and .742. This is about as historical a problem as you can document.
The pitching has had similar problems in reverse (of course) where historically, they have pitched far better on the road then they have at home. There are some notable exceptions that the batters did not have. 2017 was nearly a wash for the pitching at home and on the road. The 2001 and 2002 seasons were close enough to be respectable. But historically, it has been much harder to get good pitching results at home for the Rockies.
Pitchers cannot sustain careers in Denver and historical numbers back that up. Of their top twelve compilers of WAR over the years, only two are pitchers. Ubaldo Jimenez compiled 19 WAR based pretty much on two seasons and the other is the venerable Aaron Cook who compiled 17 WAR. Compare this with the Diamondbacks who have been around since 1998 and have three of their first four WAR compilers as pitchers.
To be honest, I do not know what my final point here can be. With the fan support, I am not advocating moving the Rockies to a more tenable place to play. In fact, those fans deserve some success for their support over the years. I guess all I am saying is that the Rockies have more to overcome to succeed than any other team in baseball. Playing in Denver and then in the rest of the baseball world is like two different games. It is too much a task for batters and pitchers to overcome with any kind of consistency. The location hurts the team's results and its reputation. And I find both to be a bit of a sad story.
Let's take the current baseball season for the Rockies as it seems typical. The Rockies have been in existence since 1993. During that time, they have never finished in first place in their division. They made it to the World Series once and were promptly swept. That was the only season the team also made it to the NLCS. The Rockies have won 90 games in a season only three times with none of them coming back to back.
The 2019 current Rockies' season is typical because the Rockies had a good season a year ago. They won 90 games. They were the wildcard team for the second straight season and actually won the one-game play-in to make it to the NLDS. Once again, they were swept in that series. This year, as has happened many times in the past, they have fallen back and barring an extraordinary run, will not be a wild card team.
And what of their best players? Larry Walker and Todd Helton had remarkably similar offensive careers. Walker compiled 72 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in his great career while Helton compiled 61 WAR. Walker has thus far been denied a place in to the Hall Of Fame. Helton will likely never get close.
I believe that Larry Walker is the only Rockies player to receive an MVP Award. Helton never came close even though he led the league in WAR the year 2000. He had another amazing season in 2001 and came in ninth in the MVP voting despite having the fifth best WAR total (behind a quartet of juicers).
Throughout the years, the Rockies have not been able to sustain pitching. Ubaldo Jimenez came in third in Cy Young Award voting in 2010 and quickly fell on his sword the following season and was never the same. Kyle Freeland came in fourth in Cy Young Award voting last season and has a FIP over six this season.
Anyone who has a little baseball knowledge has already known what the problem has been for the Rockies though I have not stated it directly. And to state it plainly, the location of where the Rockies play their home games is the problem. And it is a problem that seems to defy mending.
The problem is not Coors Field. That is a beautiful ballpark with a 4.7 fan rating (out of five) with over 15 thousand reviews. The team draws really well. The fans come out in droves. So it is not the venue and it is not the lack of local support (unlike, say, the Tampa Bay Rays). The problem is playing baseball in Denver, Colorado.
There is a baseball term called the Ballpark Factor. This "factor" basically calculates whether the ballpark is easier for the batter or the pitcher. A 100 score is considered neutral where neither the batter nor the pitcher have the advantage. There are some venues that favor hitters. Everyone knows which they are: Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, Camden Yards, Citizens Back Park, Miller Park, Globe Life Park and maybe one or two more.
Most of those venues favor the batters less than you would think. Globe Life Park in Texas has historically been one of the best batters parks. And their 109 Ballpark Factor rating shows that. The rest are in the 103 to 106 range. For some reason, Camden Yards is up to 109 this season which is higher than historical. Now compare all these fine places to hit with Coors Field. I will start a new paragraph to give the facts there as they are astounding.
Coors Field has a historical Ballpark Factor of 121. This year, for some reason, it sits at 128. That is an astounding number. It is ten to twenty points higher than the other worst pitching parks and more than twenty over what is considered neutral. No other venue comes close. Again, this is not a Coors Field problem. The dimensions at Coors are huge compared to other parks. The right field and left field lines are forty to fifty feet longer than Yankee Stadium!
It is the thin air of Denver that makes baseball impossible to sustain at Coors Field. The talk for years has been that breaking pitches do not break and the ball simply has less resistance when it is hit. How does this affect the road / home results for the team?
The batters and pitchers have had an awful time adjusting to either being on the road (batters) or at home (pitchers) and this is a historical problem. In 2019, the Rockies have a team batting OPS of .894 at Coors. That is an incredibly high OPS which means that team players are batting at elite levels there. But on the road, it is a different story. The team's road OPS is .658. The difference is striking and telling.
And this is nothing new. Last year was similar: .852 at home and .665 on the road. The year before (2017) was .862 at home and .703 on the road. Go back ten years to 2010 to take a historical look at the numbers are the same, .866 and .652. Go back twenty years and it was, .941 and .742. This is about as historical a problem as you can document.
The pitching has had similar problems in reverse (of course) where historically, they have pitched far better on the road then they have at home. There are some notable exceptions that the batters did not have. 2017 was nearly a wash for the pitching at home and on the road. The 2001 and 2002 seasons were close enough to be respectable. But historically, it has been much harder to get good pitching results at home for the Rockies.
Pitchers cannot sustain careers in Denver and historical numbers back that up. Of their top twelve compilers of WAR over the years, only two are pitchers. Ubaldo Jimenez compiled 19 WAR based pretty much on two seasons and the other is the venerable Aaron Cook who compiled 17 WAR. Compare this with the Diamondbacks who have been around since 1998 and have three of their first four WAR compilers as pitchers.
To be honest, I do not know what my final point here can be. With the fan support, I am not advocating moving the Rockies to a more tenable place to play. In fact, those fans deserve some success for their support over the years. I guess all I am saying is that the Rockies have more to overcome to succeed than any other team in baseball. Playing in Denver and then in the rest of the baseball world is like two different games. It is too much a task for batters and pitchers to overcome with any kind of consistency. The location hurts the team's results and its reputation. And I find both to be a bit of a sad story.
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Yankees and Rays: Baseball Highs And Lows In Two Games
The New York Yankees came into this home series against the Tampa Bay Rays with an opportunity to increase their distance from the team's closest rival. On Monday night, after an exhilarating homer by Edwin Encarnacion put the Yankees ahead by two in the bottom of the eighth with the usually reliable, Aroldis Chapman, on the mound for the ninth to close it out. He never did, of course, and, for the team and the fans alike, the Rays gave the Yankees the most deflating loss of the season. In the course of one half inning, two games switched in the standings. As low as that loss was and as angry the reaction, the following night turned the tables as the Yankees scored six in the eighth to bury the Rays and provided one of the best and most fun win of the season. Two nights led to anguish and euphoria!
And that is the beauty of baseball. This is why I chafe when all these talking heads on sports radio call baseball boring and needing a heavy dose of fixing. Bah humbug! I have even heard the talk of paring the season down to a hundred games! Sacrilege! The most I would ever accept would be 154 because there is a historical value to that number. That is how many games Babe Ruth played in a season.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with baseball as it stands right now. The game is as beautiful for me at 63 as it was when I was 13. Oh, I know, I stand on the wrong side of demographics. It is a young person's world and I am the anachronism. Bah humbug again. My generation has buying power. My generation watches the games religiously. My generation grew up with the marvelous wave of each baseball season and love it as passionate as can be.
Once again, it is the media that is driving the narrative which drives social media which catches young people's attention like moths to flame. I will not beat this too far in the ground, but it is the me-first NBA and the head-cracking NFL and their crooked college counterparts who get all the media love and nothing else stands a chance.
These beacons of media say that baseball needs personalities. I do not totally disagree with the assessment. But if Mike Trout is considered boring because all he lives for is to play baseball, that passion itself for the game and his team is enough. And lets define personality for a second. What exactly are they talking about?
Apparently, on some level, personality means a sort of primal pounding of the chest when a player does something particularly above average. A big dunk or a long run or touchdown catch deserves such chest pounding. Am I all wet when my favorite memories were of Barry Sanders simply handing the ref the ball after another spectacular jig to the end zone? That was class. Sanders was quietly saying, I did this before and I'll do it again.
I remember the Knicks in the late sixties and early seventies when passing the ball was the prettiest thing I've ever seen and long shots getting buried with just a move back into assuming defense after the made shot. We went crazy over those teams as kids just like I'm sure Laker and Celtic fans cheered on Magic and Bird as their artistry on the court had no peers. There was no chest thumping and we ate it up.
So what then is personality? Is it becoming an "influencer" in social media? If that means having a good time with fans, well, great. Yeah. I seem to remember baseball players doing that first. Remember LoMo? I am all for such fun accounts online. But if it leads to politics, leave me out. Just like the stars of Hollywood, being really good at sports does not make one an expert on politics. I simply don't care what they think. I have my own mind, thank you.
Is personality when players get caught up in romances and gossip fodder with other famous people? Do I really care which Kardashian is shacking up with which famous basketball player? What does that have to do with the sport they play?
All the definitions of personality that I see so far are negatives. It is about the starved for attention, the adulation of a gullible public and the mockery of what is really news. The argument goes nowhere unless the idea is to get a bunch of gullible youngsters to want to emulate these news makers. And is that really what you want to have emulated? Should all kids want $200 sneakers because LeBron wears them?
No, it is the sport that counts. Mike Trout's problem is not that he is boring. Watch the dude play, for heaven sakes! The problem is that more than half of his games start after ten o'clock Eastern Time. And while we are on the Mike Trout subject, let's interject a minute about the All Star Game. I remember growing up and the really big stars like Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle played the entire All Star Game. Those were the guys everyone really wanted to see. Mike Trout is the biggest star in MLB. And he played four innings and got two at bats. Really!? Way to give the radio sports hounds some ammo.
I enjoy watching the NFL. I do. But I hate the primal peacock strutting. Seriously, your team is losing by three touchdowns and you are going to stomp around and pound your chest because you got a sack? Give me Barry Sanders' class any day. And the last I checked, an NFL game lasted just as long as most MLB games and the last time I studied this subject, there was even less time actually playing the game in the NFL than there is in a baseball game. I cannot watch the NBA. I was taught the game and loved it. But then players were allowed to travel at will, play zones with impunity, palm the basketball bringing it up the court and the inevitable primal exhibition when a successful dunk takes place. It is unwatchable for me.
I cannot watch college sports because of all the shenanigans that go on recruiting players and all the money that is made by the schools when the players receive nothing. I cannot support that.
All that aside, baseball is not perfect. Bad things happen. Players cheat. Players misbehave. Players get arrested just like any other sport. But baseball is as much a key part of my life as The Beatles were and are. It has been with me through loss and gain and more loss. Life lessons like: If things go badly, there is always tomorrow and this may have been a bad year, but there is always next year. It is a fabric of my being.
And this--for the millionth time--becomes crystal clear with the games Monday and Tuesday between the Yankees and the Rays. On Monday, Rays and Rays fans are soaring with a thrilling win by unlikely hero, Travis d'Arnaud. Yankee fans are crushed. The next night, Rays fans are crushed and Yankee fans are celebrating Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius. That is baseball. That is the greatest sport on earth. That is the beauty of six games a week for six months and then a month of drama. Leave baseball alone. It is perfect the way it is.
And that is the beauty of baseball. This is why I chafe when all these talking heads on sports radio call baseball boring and needing a heavy dose of fixing. Bah humbug! I have even heard the talk of paring the season down to a hundred games! Sacrilege! The most I would ever accept would be 154 because there is a historical value to that number. That is how many games Babe Ruth played in a season.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with baseball as it stands right now. The game is as beautiful for me at 63 as it was when I was 13. Oh, I know, I stand on the wrong side of demographics. It is a young person's world and I am the anachronism. Bah humbug again. My generation has buying power. My generation watches the games religiously. My generation grew up with the marvelous wave of each baseball season and love it as passionate as can be.
Once again, it is the media that is driving the narrative which drives social media which catches young people's attention like moths to flame. I will not beat this too far in the ground, but it is the me-first NBA and the head-cracking NFL and their crooked college counterparts who get all the media love and nothing else stands a chance.
These beacons of media say that baseball needs personalities. I do not totally disagree with the assessment. But if Mike Trout is considered boring because all he lives for is to play baseball, that passion itself for the game and his team is enough. And lets define personality for a second. What exactly are they talking about?
Apparently, on some level, personality means a sort of primal pounding of the chest when a player does something particularly above average. A big dunk or a long run or touchdown catch deserves such chest pounding. Am I all wet when my favorite memories were of Barry Sanders simply handing the ref the ball after another spectacular jig to the end zone? That was class. Sanders was quietly saying, I did this before and I'll do it again.
I remember the Knicks in the late sixties and early seventies when passing the ball was the prettiest thing I've ever seen and long shots getting buried with just a move back into assuming defense after the made shot. We went crazy over those teams as kids just like I'm sure Laker and Celtic fans cheered on Magic and Bird as their artistry on the court had no peers. There was no chest thumping and we ate it up.
So what then is personality? Is it becoming an "influencer" in social media? If that means having a good time with fans, well, great. Yeah. I seem to remember baseball players doing that first. Remember LoMo? I am all for such fun accounts online. But if it leads to politics, leave me out. Just like the stars of Hollywood, being really good at sports does not make one an expert on politics. I simply don't care what they think. I have my own mind, thank you.
Is personality when players get caught up in romances and gossip fodder with other famous people? Do I really care which Kardashian is shacking up with which famous basketball player? What does that have to do with the sport they play?
All the definitions of personality that I see so far are negatives. It is about the starved for attention, the adulation of a gullible public and the mockery of what is really news. The argument goes nowhere unless the idea is to get a bunch of gullible youngsters to want to emulate these news makers. And is that really what you want to have emulated? Should all kids want $200 sneakers because LeBron wears them?
No, it is the sport that counts. Mike Trout's problem is not that he is boring. Watch the dude play, for heaven sakes! The problem is that more than half of his games start after ten o'clock Eastern Time. And while we are on the Mike Trout subject, let's interject a minute about the All Star Game. I remember growing up and the really big stars like Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle played the entire All Star Game. Those were the guys everyone really wanted to see. Mike Trout is the biggest star in MLB. And he played four innings and got two at bats. Really!? Way to give the radio sports hounds some ammo.
I enjoy watching the NFL. I do. But I hate the primal peacock strutting. Seriously, your team is losing by three touchdowns and you are going to stomp around and pound your chest because you got a sack? Give me Barry Sanders' class any day. And the last I checked, an NFL game lasted just as long as most MLB games and the last time I studied this subject, there was even less time actually playing the game in the NFL than there is in a baseball game. I cannot watch the NBA. I was taught the game and loved it. But then players were allowed to travel at will, play zones with impunity, palm the basketball bringing it up the court and the inevitable primal exhibition when a successful dunk takes place. It is unwatchable for me.
I cannot watch college sports because of all the shenanigans that go on recruiting players and all the money that is made by the schools when the players receive nothing. I cannot support that.
All that aside, baseball is not perfect. Bad things happen. Players cheat. Players misbehave. Players get arrested just like any other sport. But baseball is as much a key part of my life as The Beatles were and are. It has been with me through loss and gain and more loss. Life lessons like: If things go badly, there is always tomorrow and this may have been a bad year, but there is always next year. It is a fabric of my being.
And this--for the millionth time--becomes crystal clear with the games Monday and Tuesday between the Yankees and the Rays. On Monday, Rays and Rays fans are soaring with a thrilling win by unlikely hero, Travis d'Arnaud. Yankee fans are crushed. The next night, Rays fans are crushed and Yankee fans are celebrating Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius. That is baseball. That is the greatest sport on earth. That is the beauty of six games a week for six months and then a month of drama. Leave baseball alone. It is perfect the way it is.
Monday, July 08, 2019
Yankees Miss Jugular
The New York Yankees won the first two games in their series against the Tampa Bay Rays and built their largest lead of the year in the division. They lost a tough game on Saturday on a walk-off homer. Hey, that happens. The team still had a chance of leaving that house of horrors called, Tropicana Field, of taking three of four games. Instead, Aaron Boone said it was a good time to rest his two most reliable and versatile hitters (and All Stars), DJ LaMahieu and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees scored one run against Charlie Morton and settled for a split. Instead of stepping on the Rays' jugular, the Yankees stuck to their every game is not important way of life.
I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?
I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.
The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.
Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran. Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.
One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.
I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.
The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.
I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?
I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.
The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.
Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran. Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.
One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.
I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.
The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.
Tuesday, July 02, 2019
Every Day Is Gleyber Day
The news that New York Yankees' radio announcer, John Sterling, was taking a few games off for the first time in 31 years prompted a revisit of Sterling's wonderful (to me) home run calls. One of my favorites is, "It's Gleyber Day!" One of the most overlooked factors of this amazing Yankees' season is that every day for the Yankees is Gleyber Day. Gleyber Torres has been so steady and such a rock for a kid that is 22-years-old, he has been an unsung superglue for his team.
Rightly so, DJ LeMahieu has been getting most of the attention along with the All-Star season of Gary Sanchez. Luke Voit has shared a spotlight as has Gio Urshela and others that filled in during the injury-plagued first half. In fact, the injuries have been the number one story along with how well the team has done despite them.
And now, while DJLM is still cruising along and is one of two Yankee All-Star starters, the focus of attention (again, rightly so) has been the return of Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks. Add in some concerns about the pitching and the expectation that Brian Cashman will again come to the rescue with some help there, and there is little ink left for anything else.
But let's catch our breath a second and consider the continuing maturity of a very young cog of the Yankees' success: Gleyber Torres. After all, Torres is second on the team in Wins Above Replacement behind only DJLM (and ahead of Sanchez). And to show you how he seems to get lost in the fray, Torres has been batting seventh and eighth in the lineup!
The overshadowing of Gleyber Torres began in the second half of last season. In the spring, he was the most anticipated call-up for the Yankees in decades. He was on everyone's mind ever since Cashman obtained him as part of the Aroldis Chapman-to-the-Cubs trade. And then it finally happened and everyone was so excited!
Torres continued to be a focus as his call-up was followed by spectacular play so that after the first half, he was sitting with a .905 OPS to go with 15 homers, a triple and ten doubles. His smile was infectious and his play in the field was, at times, jaw-dropping.
But then he got hurt and missed most of July which is exactly when Miguel Andujar got hot and stayed hot for the rest of the season. Gleyber Torres returned but was not the same player and I believe he played August and September not in full health. His struggles included what looked like some lack of concentration on some plays in the field and had less joy in his countenance. Andujar was the new darling.
If you look at Torres' first half last season and first half this season, there are similarities. His first half led to the aforementioned .905 OPS in 2018 and his first half of 2019 shows him at .913. But if you look closely, there are a lot of improvements. The first, of course, is his fielding. I believe his non-healthy second half last year led to some artificially low defensive numbers. This year, whether at short or at second, he has been consistently good. He was much better than expected at short while filling in there for Didi!
But his batting has also shown improvement. His strikeout percentage is down while his walk rate is up. His ISO is up while showing a slight improvement in Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP). His hard contact rate has improved as has his home run to fly ball rate. Last year, according to Fangraphs.com, he had negative scores against sliders, cutters, and split-fingered pitches. This year, Torres does not have a negative score on any pitch.
Fangraphs also shows that his contact rate has increased and his swinging strike rate has decreased. These things all point to improvement and from all accounts, Torres is focused on being the best player he can be. So I do not believe we've seen anything yet from Gleyber Torres.
Of all 19-22-year-old players in the league, Gleyber Torres ranks second in the American League in WAR behind Rafael Devers and sixth overall in the Majors. There are a lot of exciting young players in baseball right now and Gleyber Torres is one of them. And there is no reason that he cannot get much better than finishing his first full season on pace for over five wins above replacement.
And an important thing to note: as much as we all love Aaron Judge, Judge's window of stardom is a lot shorter because he is five years older than Torres. He may be overlooked now, but Gleyber Torres will become a face of this Yankee franchise for years to come.
Rightly so, DJ LeMahieu has been getting most of the attention along with the All-Star season of Gary Sanchez. Luke Voit has shared a spotlight as has Gio Urshela and others that filled in during the injury-plagued first half. In fact, the injuries have been the number one story along with how well the team has done despite them.
And now, while DJLM is still cruising along and is one of two Yankee All-Star starters, the focus of attention (again, rightly so) has been the return of Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks. Add in some concerns about the pitching and the expectation that Brian Cashman will again come to the rescue with some help there, and there is little ink left for anything else.
But let's catch our breath a second and consider the continuing maturity of a very young cog of the Yankees' success: Gleyber Torres. After all, Torres is second on the team in Wins Above Replacement behind only DJLM (and ahead of Sanchez). And to show you how he seems to get lost in the fray, Torres has been batting seventh and eighth in the lineup!
The overshadowing of Gleyber Torres began in the second half of last season. In the spring, he was the most anticipated call-up for the Yankees in decades. He was on everyone's mind ever since Cashman obtained him as part of the Aroldis Chapman-to-the-Cubs trade. And then it finally happened and everyone was so excited!
Torres continued to be a focus as his call-up was followed by spectacular play so that after the first half, he was sitting with a .905 OPS to go with 15 homers, a triple and ten doubles. His smile was infectious and his play in the field was, at times, jaw-dropping.
But then he got hurt and missed most of July which is exactly when Miguel Andujar got hot and stayed hot for the rest of the season. Gleyber Torres returned but was not the same player and I believe he played August and September not in full health. His struggles included what looked like some lack of concentration on some plays in the field and had less joy in his countenance. Andujar was the new darling.
If you look at Torres' first half last season and first half this season, there are similarities. His first half led to the aforementioned .905 OPS in 2018 and his first half of 2019 shows him at .913. But if you look closely, there are a lot of improvements. The first, of course, is his fielding. I believe his non-healthy second half last year led to some artificially low defensive numbers. This year, whether at short or at second, he has been consistently good. He was much better than expected at short while filling in there for Didi!
But his batting has also shown improvement. His strikeout percentage is down while his walk rate is up. His ISO is up while showing a slight improvement in Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP). His hard contact rate has improved as has his home run to fly ball rate. Last year, according to Fangraphs.com, he had negative scores against sliders, cutters, and split-fingered pitches. This year, Torres does not have a negative score on any pitch.
Fangraphs also shows that his contact rate has increased and his swinging strike rate has decreased. These things all point to improvement and from all accounts, Torres is focused on being the best player he can be. So I do not believe we've seen anything yet from Gleyber Torres.
Of all 19-22-year-old players in the league, Gleyber Torres ranks second in the American League in WAR behind Rafael Devers and sixth overall in the Majors. There are a lot of exciting young players in baseball right now and Gleyber Torres is one of them. And there is no reason that he cannot get much better than finishing his first full season on pace for over five wins above replacement.
And an important thing to note: as much as we all love Aaron Judge, Judge's window of stardom is a lot shorter because he is five years older than Torres. He may be overlooked now, but Gleyber Torres will become a face of this Yankee franchise for years to come.
Friday, June 28, 2019
All Star Starters and The London Games
The ballots are in and the fans have selected the starters for the 2019 MLB All Star Game. I have to admit that I was wrong about the new balloting procedure. Though I am still uncomfortable with people being allowed to vote multiple times in the opening round, the fans did seem to do a great job with this year's selections. There was only one starter selection I did not agree with and even that one is defensible.
That one pick is the National League first baseman. I had Josh Bell and Peter Alonso ahead of Freddie Freeman. But you would have to think that both of them will be selected as reserves. The choice of Freeman is very defensible as he is having another great season and his fWAR is right in the ballpark as the others. A quick study shows me that Alonso should have been given the nod.
I am also very pleased that the managers have been relieved of the ability to pick the pitching staff. It was so embarrassing the way the managers would stock the All Star staff with four or five of their own pitchers (or more). Let's hope the league office does a better job of taking the pitchers having the best year.
My only wonder when it comes to pitching is that there are so many different roles now. There are closers, starters, openers, setup guys and on and on it goes. Do you pick one from each category? Or do you stick with starters and closers with the best setup guy sprinkled in?
Anyway, the point is that despite my ferocious objection to the process, the process led to the correct results. Congratulation, MLB!
That is the positive side of this post. On the negative side, I really have to admit that I hate this London Series. While a nice way to promote baseball worldwide, the timing just sort of stinks. For the participating teams (the Yankees and Red Sox this season and the Cubs and Nationals next), it is a lot to ask. Baseball players are creatures of habits and routines. To take them out of their natural rhythm is not ideal.
The other problem for me is that the games will be played on artificial turf. And since the turf cannot be nailed down (to not hurt the soccer field), there is a greater risk of injury. The sun field looks difficult and the dimensions are sort of cartoonish. A short center field and about ten acres of foul grounds really do not represent MLB standards.
I am consistent at least. I hate when teams start the season in Japan and I hate a London Series plop in the middle of a season. And to continue the trifecta, I hate that World Baseball thing too that breaks up Spring Training and puts players at risk.
If you want to promote MLB and baseball, reboot the barnstorming days and take recently retired stars overseas to promote the sport. The risks are much greater than the rewards.
That is my two cents anyway...
That one pick is the National League first baseman. I had Josh Bell and Peter Alonso ahead of Freddie Freeman. But you would have to think that both of them will be selected as reserves. The choice of Freeman is very defensible as he is having another great season and his fWAR is right in the ballpark as the others. A quick study shows me that Alonso should have been given the nod.
I am also very pleased that the managers have been relieved of the ability to pick the pitching staff. It was so embarrassing the way the managers would stock the All Star staff with four or five of their own pitchers (or more). Let's hope the league office does a better job of taking the pitchers having the best year.
My only wonder when it comes to pitching is that there are so many different roles now. There are closers, starters, openers, setup guys and on and on it goes. Do you pick one from each category? Or do you stick with starters and closers with the best setup guy sprinkled in?
Anyway, the point is that despite my ferocious objection to the process, the process led to the correct results. Congratulation, MLB!
That is the positive side of this post. On the negative side, I really have to admit that I hate this London Series. While a nice way to promote baseball worldwide, the timing just sort of stinks. For the participating teams (the Yankees and Red Sox this season and the Cubs and Nationals next), it is a lot to ask. Baseball players are creatures of habits and routines. To take them out of their natural rhythm is not ideal.
The other problem for me is that the games will be played on artificial turf. And since the turf cannot be nailed down (to not hurt the soccer field), there is a greater risk of injury. The sun field looks difficult and the dimensions are sort of cartoonish. A short center field and about ten acres of foul grounds really do not represent MLB standards.
I am consistent at least. I hate when teams start the season in Japan and I hate a London Series plop in the middle of a season. And to continue the trifecta, I hate that World Baseball thing too that breaks up Spring Training and puts players at risk.
If you want to promote MLB and baseball, reboot the barnstorming days and take recently retired stars overseas to promote the sport. The risks are much greater than the rewards.
That is my two cents anyway...
Sports Radio And Baseball - Cart Or The Horse
I listen to quite a bit of Sports Radio. I am partial to Fox Sports Radio because I like Dan Patrick, Colin Cowherd and Doug Gottlieb. My second choice is ESPN and CBS. While I enjoy the banter, the bravado and the discussions on these shows, the content is always the same: The NBA and a sprinkling of the NFL. If MLB is mentioned at all, there is always the "pale in comparison" thought and the "boring" thought and the "not a players' league" thought. Otherwise, something bad must have happened such as an unfortunate foul ball incident. They talk about how their metrics strongly suggest that the NBA is what the audience wants them to talk about. But is this the cart or the horse?
I could type a thousand words on why MLB is not boring nor are the games too long. Suffice it to say that NFL games last the same amount of time and if you break it down, less action actually occurs in a football game than a baseball game. NBA games are generally an hour shorter, except for the last two minutes which take as much time as the first 118. When it comes to revenue, the last figures I saw state that the NFL has about $15 billion in revenue and the MLB has about $9 billion. The NBA has less revenue than both the NFL and MLB.
But this is really not my point in writing this piece. My point is that the idea that listeners do not want to listen to stuff about baseball is driven by the numbers, but what causes the numbers? Let me give you an analogy.
During an economic downturn, the cause can be a myriad of things. The Dot.com bubble bursts or the mortgage giving goes unchecked. The stock market hits a big dip or this is a crisis of some sort such as fuel shortages. Some of those take time to fix but others can bounce back in a heartbeat.
What generally happens is that the news media, always on the lookout for a sensational story, gets all over whatever the crisis happens to be. Once there is constant news scrutiny that a problem has occurred, then the consumer panics and closes ranks on their spending. Doing so deepens the economic crisis, causes unemployment and loss of profits. This is a lot more complicated than I am making it. But, again, suffice it to say that the continued media frenzy adds to the problem and increases the depth of a recession. It is not until the news starts reporting more positive stories such as a jump in GNP or a drop in unemployment that the consumer starts to come out of the shell a little and spends a little money, which in turn fuels a recovery.
I believe that Sports Radio has jumped all over the NBA news party because it has become fashionable and "cooler" than those other "fogies" sports like Baseball, Golf, etc. But you can narrow it down even further. Sports Radio does not talk about ALL of the NBA, they talk about a few teams and a few players. Do you ever hear them talk about the Memphis Grizzlies, the Phoenix Suns or the Charlotte Hornets?
No! They talk about the Lakers, Warriors, Knicks, Nets, Raptors, Kings and Rockets. Listen to them! That's it! And the only reason the Raptors are mentioned is that they won the Championship and are trying to keep Kawhai Leonard. All the talk now is about the big free agents, the top three draft picks ("Zion is overrated!"). When is the last time that Blake Griffin and Kemba Walker have been mentioned on Sports Radio? When?
It is all Lebron and Rivers and Kawhi and a few others ad nauseum. So this isn't even about the NBA. This is about a few teams on the NBA and a few players. Repeat and rehash. Every show. Every day. Every night.
Getting back to my analogy, I think the metrics that Sports Radio hang its hat on are self-created and self-driven. The cart is not in front of the horse. The cart and the horse are the same! They talk about (part) of the NBA because that is what their metrics say fans want to hear. And fans want to hear about (part) of the NBA because that is all they hear.
Now let's talk about Major League Baseball. Is $9 billion in revenue a fluke? Major League Baseball with its MLB.com, MLB.tv and MLB Network and all the merchandise that goes along with it is raking in the money. The owners are fat and happy. The top players make scads of money just like in the NBA. If all I have said so far in this paragraph is true, there is interest in Major League Baseball and that interest is very strong.
The number of sports blogs that cover baseball and baseball teams triple and more the amount of blogs that cover other sports. The NBA has started to talk about metrics now. Kawhi was worth 8 points in that game over average. The MLB has been obsessed with this for YEARS! Why? Because no other sport garners the same degree of interest in the numbers generated by players like baseball.
My challenge to Sports Radio will never be taken up because they are so comfortable in their zones. I do not see change happening any time soon. But my challenge would be to talk about baseball, Sports Radio. Make it at least a block of discussion in each of your three hours shows. If you do that, I would bet you that your metrics would reflect a change and that people would start wanting you to talk about it.
The one caveat though is that you would have to bring the same sort of excitement you bring to what you cover now. Do not sit there and talk about what baseball has to do to be less boring. Talk about some the cool things happening with the young players and the challenge that is going to happen for the next player-owner agreement to take place because of that emphasis on youth. Instead of vocal sighs when discussing MLB, Colin will need to do just as many WOOOooos! as he does with the Lakers.
Try it, Sports Radio. You won't, but I still dare you to. Maybe then we listeners will not have to see all sides of the Lakers for twenty of every twenty-four hour day. That does get old, folks.
I could type a thousand words on why MLB is not boring nor are the games too long. Suffice it to say that NFL games last the same amount of time and if you break it down, less action actually occurs in a football game than a baseball game. NBA games are generally an hour shorter, except for the last two minutes which take as much time as the first 118. When it comes to revenue, the last figures I saw state that the NFL has about $15 billion in revenue and the MLB has about $9 billion. The NBA has less revenue than both the NFL and MLB.
But this is really not my point in writing this piece. My point is that the idea that listeners do not want to listen to stuff about baseball is driven by the numbers, but what causes the numbers? Let me give you an analogy.
During an economic downturn, the cause can be a myriad of things. The Dot.com bubble bursts or the mortgage giving goes unchecked. The stock market hits a big dip or this is a crisis of some sort such as fuel shortages. Some of those take time to fix but others can bounce back in a heartbeat.
What generally happens is that the news media, always on the lookout for a sensational story, gets all over whatever the crisis happens to be. Once there is constant news scrutiny that a problem has occurred, then the consumer panics and closes ranks on their spending. Doing so deepens the economic crisis, causes unemployment and loss of profits. This is a lot more complicated than I am making it. But, again, suffice it to say that the continued media frenzy adds to the problem and increases the depth of a recession. It is not until the news starts reporting more positive stories such as a jump in GNP or a drop in unemployment that the consumer starts to come out of the shell a little and spends a little money, which in turn fuels a recovery.
I believe that Sports Radio has jumped all over the NBA news party because it has become fashionable and "cooler" than those other "fogies" sports like Baseball, Golf, etc. But you can narrow it down even further. Sports Radio does not talk about ALL of the NBA, they talk about a few teams and a few players. Do you ever hear them talk about the Memphis Grizzlies, the Phoenix Suns or the Charlotte Hornets?
No! They talk about the Lakers, Warriors, Knicks, Nets, Raptors, Kings and Rockets. Listen to them! That's it! And the only reason the Raptors are mentioned is that they won the Championship and are trying to keep Kawhai Leonard. All the talk now is about the big free agents, the top three draft picks ("Zion is overrated!"). When is the last time that Blake Griffin and Kemba Walker have been mentioned on Sports Radio? When?
It is all Lebron and Rivers and Kawhi and a few others ad nauseum. So this isn't even about the NBA. This is about a few teams on the NBA and a few players. Repeat and rehash. Every show. Every day. Every night.
Getting back to my analogy, I think the metrics that Sports Radio hang its hat on are self-created and self-driven. The cart is not in front of the horse. The cart and the horse are the same! They talk about (part) of the NBA because that is what their metrics say fans want to hear. And fans want to hear about (part) of the NBA because that is all they hear.
Now let's talk about Major League Baseball. Is $9 billion in revenue a fluke? Major League Baseball with its MLB.com, MLB.tv and MLB Network and all the merchandise that goes along with it is raking in the money. The owners are fat and happy. The top players make scads of money just like in the NBA. If all I have said so far in this paragraph is true, there is interest in Major League Baseball and that interest is very strong.
The number of sports blogs that cover baseball and baseball teams triple and more the amount of blogs that cover other sports. The NBA has started to talk about metrics now. Kawhi was worth 8 points in that game over average. The MLB has been obsessed with this for YEARS! Why? Because no other sport garners the same degree of interest in the numbers generated by players like baseball.
My challenge to Sports Radio will never be taken up because they are so comfortable in their zones. I do not see change happening any time soon. But my challenge would be to talk about baseball, Sports Radio. Make it at least a block of discussion in each of your three hours shows. If you do that, I would bet you that your metrics would reflect a change and that people would start wanting you to talk about it.
The one caveat though is that you would have to bring the same sort of excitement you bring to what you cover now. Do not sit there and talk about what baseball has to do to be less boring. Talk about some the cool things happening with the young players and the challenge that is going to happen for the next player-owner agreement to take place because of that emphasis on youth. Instead of vocal sighs when discussing MLB, Colin will need to do just as many WOOOooos! as he does with the Lakers.
Try it, Sports Radio. You won't, but I still dare you to. Maybe then we listeners will not have to see all sides of the Lakers for twenty of every twenty-four hour day. That does get old, folks.
Monday, June 24, 2019
The Anonymous Chad Green
The New York Yankees revolve in a whirlpool of interest with every game, action, roster move, etc., covered from multiple angles. Under such scrutiny, no player is truly anonymous, but, Chad Green has been nearly so. Ever since Domingo German went down with an injury and the Yankees had no other starters available, Chad Green has been the "Opener" for the Yankees and has sort of become lost in the shuffle of attention. While I watch constant walks the last four innings of relief outings on winning nights, I wish that were not so.
If you have followed this blog along its bumpy course, you know that I hate everything that happens to do with this Opener thing. It is one part of my old-fashionness that I cannot seem to get out of my system. I can live with defensive shifts because batters can break it and do not. But there is something about Openers that rub me in all the wrong places.
The fact that the Tampa Bay Rays started it probably has something to do with it. The Rays are the "smart" team. The Rays are the "hip" team. The Rays are the "scrappy" team. Blech. Give me a root canal instead. I was dreading the Yankees copying the "smart" team and going with an Opener. When German went down with his hip problem, the Yankees could not wait to jump into the Opener pool. It is embarrassing to me.
While saying all that, I do have to admit that the decision to pursue such a personally embarrassing course has worked. And it has worked spectacularly. The Yankees have employed the tacky tactic six times and have won each of those games. The last three games Chad Green has pitched have been as the Opener. He has six "starts" or "opens" altogether.
The unfortunate thing for Green in these outings is that he gets little recognition. He cannot get a win. He cannot get a Hold or a Save. He cannot get any juice on the leverage index. All he can get is a pat on the back. Of his six starts, the second pitcher has gotten the victory four times. David Hale won the earliest one. Chance Adams won the second. The bullpen blew the lead but got the win later in the game in the third. Nestor Cortez Jr. has won two and the later bullpen got the sixth. All those wins and Chad Green got an inning or two in the box score.
It is too bad that so few people have noticed because Green has been awesome in his outings beginning the last week of May. Most know that he was truly horrible to start the season. His first ten outings led to an OPS against of 1.228. His ERA was 16.43 and his WHIP was 2.478. Brutal. He was sent to the minors, regained a bit of his mojo and came back to the Yankees.
Green was better in May after his call back to the Big Leagues. He still struggled a bit early in that callback. He finished the month with a 4.70 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. But he walked only one and struck out ten in 7.2 innings pitched. He was approaching more Chad Green historical numbers.
Starting with his last two appearances in May and now all of June, Chad Green has been spectacular covering eight appearances. He has not given up a homer, walked only one batter and struck out 20 batters in 11.1 innings pitched. He has given up one run in that span. His ERA for June is 0.96 and his WHIP is 1.071. If you toss out his one less than stellar relief outing in Toronto on June 6, he has been nearly perfect.
But here's the thing. Chad Green's last three appearances have been Opens. The Yankees have won them all, of course, but Green has not pitched in any games in between those Opens. So basically, this again stellar Chad Green is pitching two innings every fifth day. While he is thus employed, every time a Yankee starter goes five innings (which is nearly every night), and the team is winning closely, there is no option but going with Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Missing Dellin Betances does not help. But neither does missing Chad Green. Oh, the Yankees can throw Jonathan Holder out there if they feel like blowing the lead and having to fight to get it back.
Chad Green seems ready to resume his killer innings in high leverage situations but cannot as long as he is the Opener. Meanwhile, games like Saturday night where the latter three relievers could not throw strikes and yet somehow survived will sooner or later start turning into losses because you cannot live that close to the edge all the time. That quartet has to be getting tired and all the extra pitchers they are throwing does not help.
At the same time, the Open games are all wins and none of them happen without Green pumping in those strikes and being a beast. What winning percentage would there be if a Chance Adams or someone had been plugged in there? It wouldn't be 1.000. Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo German are expected back around the All Star Game. Maybe that will help. The top four relievers are giving me a great deal of heartburn while a Chad Green who could help is toiling anonymously at the front of games, albeit very successfully.
If you have followed this blog along its bumpy course, you know that I hate everything that happens to do with this Opener thing. It is one part of my old-fashionness that I cannot seem to get out of my system. I can live with defensive shifts because batters can break it and do not. But there is something about Openers that rub me in all the wrong places.
The fact that the Tampa Bay Rays started it probably has something to do with it. The Rays are the "smart" team. The Rays are the "hip" team. The Rays are the "scrappy" team. Blech. Give me a root canal instead. I was dreading the Yankees copying the "smart" team and going with an Opener. When German went down with his hip problem, the Yankees could not wait to jump into the Opener pool. It is embarrassing to me.
While saying all that, I do have to admit that the decision to pursue such a personally embarrassing course has worked. And it has worked spectacularly. The Yankees have employed the tacky tactic six times and have won each of those games. The last three games Chad Green has pitched have been as the Opener. He has six "starts" or "opens" altogether.
The unfortunate thing for Green in these outings is that he gets little recognition. He cannot get a win. He cannot get a Hold or a Save. He cannot get any juice on the leverage index. All he can get is a pat on the back. Of his six starts, the second pitcher has gotten the victory four times. David Hale won the earliest one. Chance Adams won the second. The bullpen blew the lead but got the win later in the game in the third. Nestor Cortez Jr. has won two and the later bullpen got the sixth. All those wins and Chad Green got an inning or two in the box score.
It is too bad that so few people have noticed because Green has been awesome in his outings beginning the last week of May. Most know that he was truly horrible to start the season. His first ten outings led to an OPS against of 1.228. His ERA was 16.43 and his WHIP was 2.478. Brutal. He was sent to the minors, regained a bit of his mojo and came back to the Yankees.
Green was better in May after his call back to the Big Leagues. He still struggled a bit early in that callback. He finished the month with a 4.70 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. But he walked only one and struck out ten in 7.2 innings pitched. He was approaching more Chad Green historical numbers.
Starting with his last two appearances in May and now all of June, Chad Green has been spectacular covering eight appearances. He has not given up a homer, walked only one batter and struck out 20 batters in 11.1 innings pitched. He has given up one run in that span. His ERA for June is 0.96 and his WHIP is 1.071. If you toss out his one less than stellar relief outing in Toronto on June 6, he has been nearly perfect.
But here's the thing. Chad Green's last three appearances have been Opens. The Yankees have won them all, of course, but Green has not pitched in any games in between those Opens. So basically, this again stellar Chad Green is pitching two innings every fifth day. While he is thus employed, every time a Yankee starter goes five innings (which is nearly every night), and the team is winning closely, there is no option but going with Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Missing Dellin Betances does not help. But neither does missing Chad Green. Oh, the Yankees can throw Jonathan Holder out there if they feel like blowing the lead and having to fight to get it back.
Chad Green seems ready to resume his killer innings in high leverage situations but cannot as long as he is the Opener. Meanwhile, games like Saturday night where the latter three relievers could not throw strikes and yet somehow survived will sooner or later start turning into losses because you cannot live that close to the edge all the time. That quartet has to be getting tired and all the extra pitchers they are throwing does not help.
At the same time, the Open games are all wins and none of them happen without Green pumping in those strikes and being a beast. What winning percentage would there be if a Chance Adams or someone had been plugged in there? It wouldn't be 1.000. Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo German are expected back around the All Star Game. Maybe that will help. The top four relievers are giving me a great deal of heartburn while a Chad Green who could help is toiling anonymously at the front of games, albeit very successfully.
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Rain Delay Read - Two Pitching Trade Desires
There is nothing worse than waiting all day for a baseball game, especially a game that features the return of Giancarlo Stanton, and then having the game on a rain delay. Enough with the rain already! When did New York become part of a rain forest? Instead of sitting here stewing, I figured I would give my two cents on which two pitchers I would target to get the rotation over the hump for a deep run into the post season.
Granted, there are internal possibilities on the horizon. Eventually, Luis Severino will be back and Jordan Montgomery seems to be on track to return in July. There is no way you can count on these two pitchers having any kind of productivity this season. If it happens, super. But that is in a perfect world. The world is imperfect and the New York Yankees seem to need at least one stud in the rotation. Think Justin Verlander joining the Astros or something like that.
Here are two thoughts on pitchers I would target for trade to boost the Yankees' rotation:
1. Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers. Boyd is making $2.6 million for a team going nowhere. He is 28-years-old and having a career season. Granted, he has never been this good before. But his numbers are sterling. With a FIP of 3.06, a K/9 rate of 11.4 and a BB/9 rate of 1.7. He is 28 years old and controllable until 2023. And he made 31 starts last year and is on his way to doing the same thing this year. The only blemish on his record is his homer per nine rate of 1.1 and he is pretty much a five-inning pitcher.
The other thing I look at is that, for his career, Boyd has held the Red Sox to a .738 OPS and held the Tampa Bay Rays to a .606 OPS (small sample size alert). He has faced the Red Sox five times and the Rays three times.
Why is this trade desirable for the Tigers? First, any saved money for the Tigers is saved money. Secondly, the Tigers cannot hit. They are next to last in Batting Average and On Base Percentage and last in the AL in Slugging Percentage. A trade for Clint Frazier and a lower grade prospect immediately makes Frazier the best hitter on their team. Plus, he is cheap.
2. Stephen Strasburg - Washington Nationals. The Nationals may believe they have a shot in the NL East or for the wildcard. But I do not see it. They had an opportunity to gain a ton for Bryce Harper last year and missed the boat. The combination of Max Scherzer and Strasburg are incredibly expensive. But the reason I bypass Scherzer is that he is older by four years and is owed $42 million each year for the next couple of years. Holy cow!
There are some questions about Strasburg. He has not made 30 starts since 2014. But he has won 64% of his starts over his career and has struck out more than ten batters per nine for six straight seasons. He is not cheap either. He is making $38 million this season and can opt out at the end of the season. But he goes down to $15 million for the next two seasons (if he doesn't opt out) and then $45 million in the final year of the deal. It is a weird contract. With Scott Boras as his agent, the possibility of an opt out is strong.
Depending on how much the Nats kick in to Strasburg's contract, I would think that Frazier and, say Thairo Estrada could get it done. Estrada might be particularly attractive because Brian Dozier is bumping up to the 32-33-year-old Robbie Alomar second base wall. He could complete a terrific infield for the Nats.
Those are my two cents. Looking at all the teams in the bottoms of standings, these two pitchers, Stephen Strasburg and Matthew Boyd, seem the most interesting when it comes to putting the Yankees' rotation over the top and at least able to compete against the best teams in the American League.
Granted, there are internal possibilities on the horizon. Eventually, Luis Severino will be back and Jordan Montgomery seems to be on track to return in July. There is no way you can count on these two pitchers having any kind of productivity this season. If it happens, super. But that is in a perfect world. The world is imperfect and the New York Yankees seem to need at least one stud in the rotation. Think Justin Verlander joining the Astros or something like that.
Here are two thoughts on pitchers I would target for trade to boost the Yankees' rotation:
1. Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers. Boyd is making $2.6 million for a team going nowhere. He is 28-years-old and having a career season. Granted, he has never been this good before. But his numbers are sterling. With a FIP of 3.06, a K/9 rate of 11.4 and a BB/9 rate of 1.7. He is 28 years old and controllable until 2023. And he made 31 starts last year and is on his way to doing the same thing this year. The only blemish on his record is his homer per nine rate of 1.1 and he is pretty much a five-inning pitcher.
The other thing I look at is that, for his career, Boyd has held the Red Sox to a .738 OPS and held the Tampa Bay Rays to a .606 OPS (small sample size alert). He has faced the Red Sox five times and the Rays three times.
Why is this trade desirable for the Tigers? First, any saved money for the Tigers is saved money. Secondly, the Tigers cannot hit. They are next to last in Batting Average and On Base Percentage and last in the AL in Slugging Percentage. A trade for Clint Frazier and a lower grade prospect immediately makes Frazier the best hitter on their team. Plus, he is cheap.
2. Stephen Strasburg - Washington Nationals. The Nationals may believe they have a shot in the NL East or for the wildcard. But I do not see it. They had an opportunity to gain a ton for Bryce Harper last year and missed the boat. The combination of Max Scherzer and Strasburg are incredibly expensive. But the reason I bypass Scherzer is that he is older by four years and is owed $42 million each year for the next couple of years. Holy cow!
There are some questions about Strasburg. He has not made 30 starts since 2014. But he has won 64% of his starts over his career and has struck out more than ten batters per nine for six straight seasons. He is not cheap either. He is making $38 million this season and can opt out at the end of the season. But he goes down to $15 million for the next two seasons (if he doesn't opt out) and then $45 million in the final year of the deal. It is a weird contract. With Scott Boras as his agent, the possibility of an opt out is strong.
Depending on how much the Nats kick in to Strasburg's contract, I would think that Frazier and, say Thairo Estrada could get it done. Estrada might be particularly attractive because Brian Dozier is bumping up to the 32-33-year-old Robbie Alomar second base wall. He could complete a terrific infield for the Nats.
Those are my two cents. Looking at all the teams in the bottoms of standings, these two pitchers, Stephen Strasburg and Matthew Boyd, seem the most interesting when it comes to putting the Yankees' rotation over the top and at least able to compete against the best teams in the American League.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Luke Voit Not As Adroit
Everyone's favorite story last year was Luke Voit. After a year of frustration with Greg Bird and anyone else the Yankees put over at first in 2018, Voit was acquired with little fanfare, plugged into first base and became the most exciting and fun story for the 2018 Yankees. This spring, the question was, "Is Luke Voit For Real?" I asked the question myself. While Voit has good numbers and is in the plus side of the offensive average, he is not the same dynamo and does not seem to be having the same amount of fun. So what is wrong with Luke Voit?
One could speculate in many ways. Last year, Voit was just a cog in a lineup full of powerful options for a team that broke the all-time homer record. With all the injuries this year, did Voit take too much upon himself and try too hard to make up the difference? Is it a strong factor that people doubted if he was the real deal and he tried too hard to prove he was? That is all speculation, of course, and without Voit opening up about his mindset, that is all it can be.
There are observations one can make. He looks too intense at the plate. Every pitch is a battle. He does not look nearly as happy as he was. His swing at times looks like he has taken the uppercut to new extremes to the point of looking softball-like. His hips bail out (which he never did before) leading to swings and misses, weaker contact and ground balls. Those are all eyeball tests though. And perhaps they are legit since I have been watching baseball for half a century. But for those of you who only want to know the numbers, let's consider some of them.
Last year, Luke Voit put exactly 100 balls in play in fair territory according to Baseball-reference.com. That makes for a very easy way to come up with percentages. You cannot get more easy than that! I like this number better than Fangraphs.com's percentages because it only measures balls in fair territory. Yes, there are foul outs and the like, but I think the fair territory balls in play gives a nice picture. Some of the facts I will present do come from Fangraphs, but most are from B-Ref. The 2018 data includes his short stint with the Cardinals.
The first thing to notice is his pull percentage. In 2018, he pulled the ball only 23% of those balls he put in fair territory. That percentage is up to 33% this year. This meets the eye test that his hips are flying open and he is trying to pull the ball much more often.
Last year, he hit four homers to the opposite field. And he hit a total of fourteen homers to either right field or center field. Out of 100 balls put in fair territory, that is pretty incredible. This year, Voit has only hit one homer to right field and ten to center field (the same as last year) in 69 more at bats!
According to Fangraphs heat maps, Luke Voit's happy zones have shrunk. Last year, there was pink or darker in 22 of Voit's 36 strike zone sectors. This included one on the outer sixth of the plate. This year, he has 18 happy sectors and none on the outer sixth of the plate. This again shows that Voit has lost his approach to think first to drive the ball to right and center.
Voit's ground ball rate has increased by five percentage points while his homer to fly ball rate is lower by almost fourteen percentage points.
The most damning statistic that shows Luke Voit does not have the same approach as last year is his hard hit ball rate. Last year, his hard hit ball rate was 47%. It was that rate that had people thinking Voit was the real deal. This year, Voit's hard hit ball rate is down to 37.1%. That is quite a drop and would account for his Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) dropping from .365 last year to this year's .309.
There are two ways to look at Luke Voit's performance thus far this season. One could say that last year was unsustainable. Voit had never performed like that at any level of professional baseball. And that even where he is this year is as a very good offensive performer. His OPS+ is 131 and wRC+ is 132 (two ways at looking at the same thing). That means that he is 31 or 32% better than league average as an offensive performer. He is still a positive offensive force for the Yankees overall and still a godsend after the Greg Bird days.
On the other side of the coin, if he could go back to last year's approach and take the outside pitch to right or center and keep his hips from flying out, he wouldn't necessarily be the flame that last year was, but he would be better than he is and perhaps he would smile more again.
One could speculate in many ways. Last year, Voit was just a cog in a lineup full of powerful options for a team that broke the all-time homer record. With all the injuries this year, did Voit take too much upon himself and try too hard to make up the difference? Is it a strong factor that people doubted if he was the real deal and he tried too hard to prove he was? That is all speculation, of course, and without Voit opening up about his mindset, that is all it can be.
There are observations one can make. He looks too intense at the plate. Every pitch is a battle. He does not look nearly as happy as he was. His swing at times looks like he has taken the uppercut to new extremes to the point of looking softball-like. His hips bail out (which he never did before) leading to swings and misses, weaker contact and ground balls. Those are all eyeball tests though. And perhaps they are legit since I have been watching baseball for half a century. But for those of you who only want to know the numbers, let's consider some of them.
Last year, Luke Voit put exactly 100 balls in play in fair territory according to Baseball-reference.com. That makes for a very easy way to come up with percentages. You cannot get more easy than that! I like this number better than Fangraphs.com's percentages because it only measures balls in fair territory. Yes, there are foul outs and the like, but I think the fair territory balls in play gives a nice picture. Some of the facts I will present do come from Fangraphs, but most are from B-Ref. The 2018 data includes his short stint with the Cardinals.
The first thing to notice is his pull percentage. In 2018, he pulled the ball only 23% of those balls he put in fair territory. That percentage is up to 33% this year. This meets the eye test that his hips are flying open and he is trying to pull the ball much more often.
Last year, he hit four homers to the opposite field. And he hit a total of fourteen homers to either right field or center field. Out of 100 balls put in fair territory, that is pretty incredible. This year, Voit has only hit one homer to right field and ten to center field (the same as last year) in 69 more at bats!
According to Fangraphs heat maps, Luke Voit's happy zones have shrunk. Last year, there was pink or darker in 22 of Voit's 36 strike zone sectors. This included one on the outer sixth of the plate. This year, he has 18 happy sectors and none on the outer sixth of the plate. This again shows that Voit has lost his approach to think first to drive the ball to right and center.
Voit's ground ball rate has increased by five percentage points while his homer to fly ball rate is lower by almost fourteen percentage points.
The most damning statistic that shows Luke Voit does not have the same approach as last year is his hard hit ball rate. Last year, his hard hit ball rate was 47%. It was that rate that had people thinking Voit was the real deal. This year, Voit's hard hit ball rate is down to 37.1%. That is quite a drop and would account for his Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP) dropping from .365 last year to this year's .309.
There are two ways to look at Luke Voit's performance thus far this season. One could say that last year was unsustainable. Voit had never performed like that at any level of professional baseball. And that even where he is this year is as a very good offensive performer. His OPS+ is 131 and wRC+ is 132 (two ways at looking at the same thing). That means that he is 31 or 32% better than league average as an offensive performer. He is still a positive offensive force for the Yankees overall and still a godsend after the Greg Bird days.
On the other side of the coin, if he could go back to last year's approach and take the outside pitch to right or center and keep his hips from flying out, he wouldn't necessarily be the flame that last year was, but he would be better than he is and perhaps he would smile more again.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
MLB All Star Voting Is Seriously Flawed
I just completed my first ballot for the MLB All Star roster over at MLB.com. The "first ballot" thought is a real sticking point. Why are there multiple votes allowed? Is this American Idol? And what about the timing of the start of voting? Can we really tell who deserves to go based on two months of baseball? These are some of the hangups I have when it comes to, not only this new voting, but also the old way. I am not a fan of fan voting.
First of all, I feel a very compelling guilt if I do not vote for many members of my favorite team. I have been so pleased with DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, so the urge is to vote for them. But Urshela currently stands 17th in the league in fWAR for third basemen. LeMahieu has a better argument, but if you boil it all down, Tommy La Stella and Brandon Lowe have a slight edge. Of course, part of the problem is the unreliability of the defensive statistics. Is Urshela really the sixteenth best fielding third baseman in baseball? I have a really hard time buying that.
The only Yankee I voted for was Gary Sanchez. That's it. To me, that is the way it should be done. You should not vote for hometown guys or guys with great reputations. Who is the best this year? Vote for that guy. But how many are like me out there? I am not trying to paint myself as this saint, but you know the majority of fans are voting for hometown guys or guys who were great in years past. When that happens, you get Bryce Harper starting for the NL in 2018.
If it was one vote per person, then there might be more clarity for guys and gals that think like me to have a chance. But if you can vote dozens of times or whatever it is, everything gets muddy and you do not get a true picture of who should start the game.
I also believe that the voting should not be started until two weeks before the final selections or the game itself. Say, for example, you could vote for pitchers and Domingo German is on the ballot when you first go to vote at the very start of June or whenever they started. German was an All Star in April and May. He is not now. That is how fast things can change.
How about if the reverse is true? What if a guy was just middling through April and May and plays with stars in his hair in June and by the end of the month is the best player at his position to that point? Sorry, pal, we already voted for someone else.
I do not believe that smaller market teams are penalized as in the past when voting was by cards given out at the ballpark. With things on the Internet now, it should not matter that way any more. Plus, I am not sure I buy the small market idea anyway. When every franchise is worth at least a billion or more and all that money pours in from MLB.com, etc., then you only have franchises that spend money and those who would rather pocket the money.
The alternatives are unattractive as well. Polling managers leads to team stacking. Just look at how pitchers are selected. Last year's league champion manager will put his entire pitching staff out there if he can manage it. So, no, that does not work. Writers cannot even get the Hall of Fame ballot correctly. How will they manage an All Star selection? The problem is that some will do their homework and others will just file it in. Do players really know how all the other players are doing? Doubtful.
I would be okay with fan voting if it was one vote per fan. Perhaps I could go as high as three if some change their minds. But that's it. I would also be okay if the selections were made from equal shares of writers, fans, managers and players. I just know that a plethora of votes per fan is not productive and will not lead to the best players starting the game.
All that said, MLB has the best All Star format and game in all of sports. It is the only major sport where the players actually play the game to the best of their abilities. As flawed as the voting is, the MLB All Star game is the only one in sports I am willing to watch.
First of all, I feel a very compelling guilt if I do not vote for many members of my favorite team. I have been so pleased with DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, so the urge is to vote for them. But Urshela currently stands 17th in the league in fWAR for third basemen. LeMahieu has a better argument, but if you boil it all down, Tommy La Stella and Brandon Lowe have a slight edge. Of course, part of the problem is the unreliability of the defensive statistics. Is Urshela really the sixteenth best fielding third baseman in baseball? I have a really hard time buying that.
The only Yankee I voted for was Gary Sanchez. That's it. To me, that is the way it should be done. You should not vote for hometown guys or guys with great reputations. Who is the best this year? Vote for that guy. But how many are like me out there? I am not trying to paint myself as this saint, but you know the majority of fans are voting for hometown guys or guys who were great in years past. When that happens, you get Bryce Harper starting for the NL in 2018.
If it was one vote per person, then there might be more clarity for guys and gals that think like me to have a chance. But if you can vote dozens of times or whatever it is, everything gets muddy and you do not get a true picture of who should start the game.
I also believe that the voting should not be started until two weeks before the final selections or the game itself. Say, for example, you could vote for pitchers and Domingo German is on the ballot when you first go to vote at the very start of June or whenever they started. German was an All Star in April and May. He is not now. That is how fast things can change.
How about if the reverse is true? What if a guy was just middling through April and May and plays with stars in his hair in June and by the end of the month is the best player at his position to that point? Sorry, pal, we already voted for someone else.
I do not believe that smaller market teams are penalized as in the past when voting was by cards given out at the ballpark. With things on the Internet now, it should not matter that way any more. Plus, I am not sure I buy the small market idea anyway. When every franchise is worth at least a billion or more and all that money pours in from MLB.com, etc., then you only have franchises that spend money and those who would rather pocket the money.
The alternatives are unattractive as well. Polling managers leads to team stacking. Just look at how pitchers are selected. Last year's league champion manager will put his entire pitching staff out there if he can manage it. So, no, that does not work. Writers cannot even get the Hall of Fame ballot correctly. How will they manage an All Star selection? The problem is that some will do their homework and others will just file it in. Do players really know how all the other players are doing? Doubtful.
I would be okay with fan voting if it was one vote per fan. Perhaps I could go as high as three if some change their minds. But that's it. I would also be okay if the selections were made from equal shares of writers, fans, managers and players. I just know that a plethora of votes per fan is not productive and will not lead to the best players starting the game.
All that said, MLB has the best All Star format and game in all of sports. It is the only major sport where the players actually play the game to the best of their abilities. As flawed as the voting is, the MLB All Star game is the only one in sports I am willing to watch.
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Let's Play Yankees GM - Roster Moves As Players Return
The New York Yankees have missed a major chunk of their expected starting lineup and yet the team is in first place and playing very good baseball. The wounded have been slowly dribbling in and will continue to do so in the weeks ahead. So many of the "fill-in" players have been playing so well that a roster crunch is definitely on its way. So how should the Yankees handle the roster as players return? Let's take a look at how this could (or should) play out.
I should point out ahead of time that these thoughts are contingent on no further injuries and based on expected return times of missing players. Let's first look at the non-pitchers.
Didi Gregorius should be the first one back. Didi is the only one not surprised that he is ready so soon. The caveat here is that the Yankees' infield has been as solid as I have seen it since the 1990s. DJ LeMahieu is so good at second base and he has been hitting so well. You hate to move him. But move him the Yankees will have to do. What is the corresponding roster move?
The easy answer is Thairo Estrada. The kid is ahead of projections and was not supposed to start his career yet. Plus, he is not playing every day to stay sharp. But the 23-year-old has a .380 wOBA and a 140 wRC+ while playing respectable defense. Would he learn just as much at the Major League level and contribute like he has?
My answer is to DFA Kendrys Morales. Morales is a dinosaur who cannot help himself hitting consistently into the shift. He is good for a walk here and there. But otherwise, he offers little value at the plate and no value in the field. And, he clogs up the DH and the base paths. Sending him away makes it easier for LeMahieu to get consistent at bats as either the regular first baseman and a rotate DH with Gleyber Torres, Gregorius (Torres plays short when Didi DHs) and Gio Urshela.
Didi Gregorius becomes your regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres moves to second, which is a shame. Urshela is your fixture at third, Luke Voit is your first baseman / DH and LeMahieu is the rover with Estrada the backup.
The next player back appears to be Troy Tulowitzki. This should be an easy one. Thanks for trying, Tulo. See ya. Any other decision would be stupid. By missing half the season already, he has lived up (or down) to his injury reputation.
Then there is Aaron Judge. I do not know about you, but I sure miss Aaron Judge. This should be an easy decision as well. Cameron Maybin has been good for the Yankees and is a great team guy. But he is the only logical choice. Brett Gardner is part of the furniture. Aaron Hicks is a newly-contracted guy and Clint Frazier is one of your best prospects and is mashing reasonably well in between his strikeouts. The only logic behind keeping Maybin is that he can play all three positions in the outfield. But as long as you have Gardner and Frazier, things are covered.
The last position player back will be Giancarlo Stanton. His long absence this year has been extremely disappointing. Not that the Yankees could not cover his absence, but he makes a ton of money and together with Judge could be hitting moonshots all over the place. Things get really interesting when he returns. What should the roster move be?
The problem is that you cannot trust Stanton in the outfield. I hate a clogged up DH. If he could play LF every day, I would be fine with that with Gardner as the backup and then you have to send Frazier down. But if he is a DH only, then you need Frazier for depth and the move is to send Estrada down. I am okay with four rotating infielders as long as they do not get hurt.
I am not even going to discuss Greg Bird. I am not even going to think about him or Jacoby Ellsbury. In fact, I am fine if I never see them in pinstripes again. And, of course, Miguel Andujar is gone until next season.
Okay, the return of Dellin Betances is long-awaited and hoped for. His roster move will be easy as the Yankees have been carrying a fringe pitcher all season.
As for starters, I do not see any point in bringing in Dallas Keuchel. First, he will be expensive for what, a little more than half the season? If CC Sabathia can hang in there and if Luis Severino comes back in August, the Yankees should be fine. Plus, Jordan Montgomery is somewhere out there in the ether too. The only worry is how many innings you want to put on Domingo German. German could be a bullpen piece in the second half and then a full-time starter next season. I guess I am fine with either signing Keuchel or not signing him.
Personally, I do not think Keuchel is as good as he used to be. His strikeout and ground ball rates have dipped. The only reason, perhaps, to sign him is so that the Rays or Red Sox do not.
I do not think we need to talk about Jonathan Loaisiga or Ben Hiller. Hiller will need to prove himself again in the minors and Loaisiga needs to find some command.
So there it is. The Yankees will have some interesting decisions to make as the wounded come trickling back. How they handle the corresponding roster moves could go a long way toward determining how far they get in the AL East or, if the Yankees get there, the playoffs.
I should point out ahead of time that these thoughts are contingent on no further injuries and based on expected return times of missing players. Let's first look at the non-pitchers.
Didi Gregorius should be the first one back. Didi is the only one not surprised that he is ready so soon. The caveat here is that the Yankees' infield has been as solid as I have seen it since the 1990s. DJ LeMahieu is so good at second base and he has been hitting so well. You hate to move him. But move him the Yankees will have to do. What is the corresponding roster move?
The easy answer is Thairo Estrada. The kid is ahead of projections and was not supposed to start his career yet. Plus, he is not playing every day to stay sharp. But the 23-year-old has a .380 wOBA and a 140 wRC+ while playing respectable defense. Would he learn just as much at the Major League level and contribute like he has?
My answer is to DFA Kendrys Morales. Morales is a dinosaur who cannot help himself hitting consistently into the shift. He is good for a walk here and there. But otherwise, he offers little value at the plate and no value in the field. And, he clogs up the DH and the base paths. Sending him away makes it easier for LeMahieu to get consistent at bats as either the regular first baseman and a rotate DH with Gleyber Torres, Gregorius (Torres plays short when Didi DHs) and Gio Urshela.
Didi Gregorius becomes your regular shortstop. Gleyber Torres moves to second, which is a shame. Urshela is your fixture at third, Luke Voit is your first baseman / DH and LeMahieu is the rover with Estrada the backup.
The next player back appears to be Troy Tulowitzki. This should be an easy one. Thanks for trying, Tulo. See ya. Any other decision would be stupid. By missing half the season already, he has lived up (or down) to his injury reputation.
Then there is Aaron Judge. I do not know about you, but I sure miss Aaron Judge. This should be an easy decision as well. Cameron Maybin has been good for the Yankees and is a great team guy. But he is the only logical choice. Brett Gardner is part of the furniture. Aaron Hicks is a newly-contracted guy and Clint Frazier is one of your best prospects and is mashing reasonably well in between his strikeouts. The only logic behind keeping Maybin is that he can play all three positions in the outfield. But as long as you have Gardner and Frazier, things are covered.
The last position player back will be Giancarlo Stanton. His long absence this year has been extremely disappointing. Not that the Yankees could not cover his absence, but he makes a ton of money and together with Judge could be hitting moonshots all over the place. Things get really interesting when he returns. What should the roster move be?
The problem is that you cannot trust Stanton in the outfield. I hate a clogged up DH. If he could play LF every day, I would be fine with that with Gardner as the backup and then you have to send Frazier down. But if he is a DH only, then you need Frazier for depth and the move is to send Estrada down. I am okay with four rotating infielders as long as they do not get hurt.
I am not even going to discuss Greg Bird. I am not even going to think about him or Jacoby Ellsbury. In fact, I am fine if I never see them in pinstripes again. And, of course, Miguel Andujar is gone until next season.
Okay, the return of Dellin Betances is long-awaited and hoped for. His roster move will be easy as the Yankees have been carrying a fringe pitcher all season.
As for starters, I do not see any point in bringing in Dallas Keuchel. First, he will be expensive for what, a little more than half the season? If CC Sabathia can hang in there and if Luis Severino comes back in August, the Yankees should be fine. Plus, Jordan Montgomery is somewhere out there in the ether too. The only worry is how many innings you want to put on Domingo German. German could be a bullpen piece in the second half and then a full-time starter next season. I guess I am fine with either signing Keuchel or not signing him.
Personally, I do not think Keuchel is as good as he used to be. His strikeout and ground ball rates have dipped. The only reason, perhaps, to sign him is so that the Rays or Red Sox do not.
I do not think we need to talk about Jonathan Loaisiga or Ben Hiller. Hiller will need to prove himself again in the minors and Loaisiga needs to find some command.
So there it is. The Yankees will have some interesting decisions to make as the wounded come trickling back. How they handle the corresponding roster moves could go a long way toward determining how far they get in the AL East or, if the Yankees get there, the playoffs.
Thursday, May 23, 2019
Best Reliever Seasons Of All Time
I was thinking one night about the greatest MLB teams I had seen in my lifetime. The 1998 Yankees, of course, was one of those thoughts. But there was also the Big Red Machine with Bench, Morgan, etc. The 2001 Diamondbacks, the 2004 and 2018 Red Sox teams were thoughts. And then I thought of the 1984 Detroit Tigers. I went to look at baseball-reference.com about that team and the thing that blew my mind was the tandem of Aurelio Lopez and Willie Hernandez in the bullpen. Hernandez won the Cy Young Award that season and between those two pitchers, they won 19 games and saved 46 others. Doug Bair was also part of that amazing bullpen. According to B-R, Hernandez rated a 4.8 rWAR that season. Where did that stand all time? So I did a search.
First of all, let me state plainly that B-R and fangraphs.com rate relief pitchers totally different. As we will see later, Mariano Rivera's 1996 was given 5.0 rWAR, but fangraphs.com gave him 3.0. So I am featuring a list based on one site's valuations.
I also discovered that relief pitching has changed drastically in the last thirty years. Guys like Goose Gossage and Dick Raditz pitched in eras that were totally alien to today's MLB reality. That makes their rWAR records untouchable unless the game reverts back--which it may as all things are cyclical. So I made a list of the best rWAR totals all time and will do another list for pitchers from 1995 to today.
To be considered for this list, I defined a relief pitching season as to where all the appearances were in relief with no games started at all. First, here is the All-Time list followed by some comments and then the "modern" list from 1995 to today. The figures going across will be the rWAR, the year, the player, the team, the games pitched, innings, ERA/FIP, OPS+ against. Here goes...
1. 8.2 - 1975 - Goose Gossage - White Sox - 62 - 141.2 - 1.84/2.62 - 56
2. 7.9 - 1973 - John Hiller - Tigers - 65 - 125.2 - 1.44/2.25 - 48
3. 7.3 - 1986 - Mark Eichhorn - Blue Jays - 69 - 157 - 1.72/2.31 - 47
4. 6.6 - 1977 - Bruce Sutter - Cubs - 62 - 107.1 - 1.34/1.61 - 31
5. 6.2 - 1967 - Ted Abernathy - Reds - 70 - 103.1 - 1.27/2.30 - 32
6. 6.1 - 1979 - Jim Kern - Rangers - 71 - 143 - 1.57/2.63 - 49
6. 6.1 - 1964 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 79 - 157 - 2.29/2.62 - 62
8. 6.0 - 1977 - Goose Gossage - Pirates - 72 - 133 - 1.62/2.50 - 38
9. 5.7 - 1980 - Doug Corbett - Twins - 73 - 136.1 - 1.98/3.06 - 52
9. 5.7 - 1963 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 66 - 132.1 - 1.97-2.18 - 62
11. 5.6 - 1979 - Sid Monge - Indians - 76 - 131 - 2.40/3.46 - 67
12. 5.5 - 1983 - Dan Quisenberry - Royals - 69 - 139 - 1.94/2.86 - 52
13. 5.4 - 1982 - Greg Minton - Giants - 78 - 123 - 1.83/3.38 - 81
13. 5.4 - 1962 - Did Raditz - Red Sox - 66 - 124.2 - 2.24/2.30 - 68
15. 5.3 - 1979 - Aurelio Lopez - Tigers - 61 - 127 - 2.41/3.57 - 65
Willie Hernandez's season of 1984 was the 22nd highest rWAR of all time according to this list.
The Goose Gossage story is interesting. He had that record-breaking season in 1975. Then the White Sox tried to make him a starter in 1976. It did not work out well. Gossage wasn't terrible, but his record was. After that season, the White Sox traded him to the Pirates where he went back to relief and had the eighth best season according to this evaluation method.
Dick Raditz did not have a long career, but for three years was what Mickey Mantle called, "That Monster." Consider that the 1964 Red Sox won only 71 games and yet, Raditz pitched in nearly half their games (79) and was a part of 63% of the team's wins. He later had a case of what Rick Ankiel dealt with and could no longer throw strikes. He died in 2005 after falling down a flight of stairs. Raditz, along with Ryne Duren, were the first two relief pitchers to average more than ten strikeouts per nine innings in a season.
I mentioned earlier that today's game is radically different than the 1960s and 1970s baseball. The dominant closers and setup men have become the Holy Grail for all teams. So, to honor the new era, these are the most valuable relief seasons since 1995.
1. 5.0 - 2006 - Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox - 59 - 58.1 - 0.92/2.15 - 18
2. 5.0 - 1996 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 61 - 107.2 - 2.09/1.88 - 24
3. 4.5 - 1999 - Keith Foulke - White Sox - 67 - 105.1 - 2.22/2.84 - 40
4. 4.4 - 2000 - Gabe White - Reds/Rockies - 68 - 84 - 2.36/2.71 - 35
5. 4.3 - 2008 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 64 - 70.2 - 1.40/2.30 - 10
5. 4.3 - 2007 - Rafael Betancourt - Indians - 68 - 79.1 - 1.47/2.22 - 26
7. 4.2 - 2018 - Blake Trienen - Athletics - 68 - 80.1 - 0.78/1.82 - 18
7. 4.2 - 2016 - Zack Britton - Orioles - 69 - 67 - 0.51/1.94 - 17
7. 4.2 - 2004 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 74 - 78.2 - 1.94/2.82 - 50
7. 4.2 - 2002 - Octavio Dotel - Astros - 83 - 97.1 - 1.85/2.43 - 35
Mariano Rivera also had another 4.0 rWAR season. Rivera's OPS+ figure of 10 seemed remarkable to me. So I did another search on any pitcher with over 50 innings pitched and a 10 OPS+ against or lower. This might be another way to indicate the best relieving season of all time. It turns out that there have only been five such seasons. They are, from bestest to best:
1. Craig Kimbrel - 2012 - Braves - 1 (!) Truly remarkable
2. Eric Gagne - 2003 - Dodgers - 4 Maybe it was steroid aided, but still!
3. Koji Uehara - 2013 - Red Sox - 8 He was unhittable that year
4. Billy Wagner - 1999 - Astros - 10 The most underrated reliever ever
4. Mariano Rivera - 2008 - Yankees - 10
So what do you think? Which stat better states the best reliever season of all time? I think it would be hard to argue about Craig Kimbrel's 2012. He struck out 50% of the batters he faced that season in a season where his WHIP was 0.654.
First of all, let me state plainly that B-R and fangraphs.com rate relief pitchers totally different. As we will see later, Mariano Rivera's 1996 was given 5.0 rWAR, but fangraphs.com gave him 3.0. So I am featuring a list based on one site's valuations.
I also discovered that relief pitching has changed drastically in the last thirty years. Guys like Goose Gossage and Dick Raditz pitched in eras that were totally alien to today's MLB reality. That makes their rWAR records untouchable unless the game reverts back--which it may as all things are cyclical. So I made a list of the best rWAR totals all time and will do another list for pitchers from 1995 to today.
To be considered for this list, I defined a relief pitching season as to where all the appearances were in relief with no games started at all. First, here is the All-Time list followed by some comments and then the "modern" list from 1995 to today. The figures going across will be the rWAR, the year, the player, the team, the games pitched, innings, ERA/FIP, OPS+ against. Here goes...
1. 8.2 - 1975 - Goose Gossage - White Sox - 62 - 141.2 - 1.84/2.62 - 56
2. 7.9 - 1973 - John Hiller - Tigers - 65 - 125.2 - 1.44/2.25 - 48
3. 7.3 - 1986 - Mark Eichhorn - Blue Jays - 69 - 157 - 1.72/2.31 - 47
4. 6.6 - 1977 - Bruce Sutter - Cubs - 62 - 107.1 - 1.34/1.61 - 31
5. 6.2 - 1967 - Ted Abernathy - Reds - 70 - 103.1 - 1.27/2.30 - 32
6. 6.1 - 1979 - Jim Kern - Rangers - 71 - 143 - 1.57/2.63 - 49
6. 6.1 - 1964 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 79 - 157 - 2.29/2.62 - 62
8. 6.0 - 1977 - Goose Gossage - Pirates - 72 - 133 - 1.62/2.50 - 38
9. 5.7 - 1980 - Doug Corbett - Twins - 73 - 136.1 - 1.98/3.06 - 52
9. 5.7 - 1963 - Dick Radatz - Red Sox - 66 - 132.1 - 1.97-2.18 - 62
11. 5.6 - 1979 - Sid Monge - Indians - 76 - 131 - 2.40/3.46 - 67
12. 5.5 - 1983 - Dan Quisenberry - Royals - 69 - 139 - 1.94/2.86 - 52
13. 5.4 - 1982 - Greg Minton - Giants - 78 - 123 - 1.83/3.38 - 81
13. 5.4 - 1962 - Did Raditz - Red Sox - 66 - 124.2 - 2.24/2.30 - 68
15. 5.3 - 1979 - Aurelio Lopez - Tigers - 61 - 127 - 2.41/3.57 - 65
Willie Hernandez's season of 1984 was the 22nd highest rWAR of all time according to this list.
The Goose Gossage story is interesting. He had that record-breaking season in 1975. Then the White Sox tried to make him a starter in 1976. It did not work out well. Gossage wasn't terrible, but his record was. After that season, the White Sox traded him to the Pirates where he went back to relief and had the eighth best season according to this evaluation method.
Dick Raditz did not have a long career, but for three years was what Mickey Mantle called, "That Monster." Consider that the 1964 Red Sox won only 71 games and yet, Raditz pitched in nearly half their games (79) and was a part of 63% of the team's wins. He later had a case of what Rick Ankiel dealt with and could no longer throw strikes. He died in 2005 after falling down a flight of stairs. Raditz, along with Ryne Duren, were the first two relief pitchers to average more than ten strikeouts per nine innings in a season.
I mentioned earlier that today's game is radically different than the 1960s and 1970s baseball. The dominant closers and setup men have become the Holy Grail for all teams. So, to honor the new era, these are the most valuable relief seasons since 1995.
1. 5.0 - 2006 - Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox - 59 - 58.1 - 0.92/2.15 - 18
2. 5.0 - 1996 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 61 - 107.2 - 2.09/1.88 - 24
3. 4.5 - 1999 - Keith Foulke - White Sox - 67 - 105.1 - 2.22/2.84 - 40
4. 4.4 - 2000 - Gabe White - Reds/Rockies - 68 - 84 - 2.36/2.71 - 35
5. 4.3 - 2008 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 64 - 70.2 - 1.40/2.30 - 10
5. 4.3 - 2007 - Rafael Betancourt - Indians - 68 - 79.1 - 1.47/2.22 - 26
7. 4.2 - 2018 - Blake Trienen - Athletics - 68 - 80.1 - 0.78/1.82 - 18
7. 4.2 - 2016 - Zack Britton - Orioles - 69 - 67 - 0.51/1.94 - 17
7. 4.2 - 2004 - Mariano Rivera - Yankees - 74 - 78.2 - 1.94/2.82 - 50
7. 4.2 - 2002 - Octavio Dotel - Astros - 83 - 97.1 - 1.85/2.43 - 35
Mariano Rivera also had another 4.0 rWAR season. Rivera's OPS+ figure of 10 seemed remarkable to me. So I did another search on any pitcher with over 50 innings pitched and a 10 OPS+ against or lower. This might be another way to indicate the best relieving season of all time. It turns out that there have only been five such seasons. They are, from bestest to best:
1. Craig Kimbrel - 2012 - Braves - 1 (!) Truly remarkable
2. Eric Gagne - 2003 - Dodgers - 4 Maybe it was steroid aided, but still!
3. Koji Uehara - 2013 - Red Sox - 8 He was unhittable that year
4. Billy Wagner - 1999 - Astros - 10 The most underrated reliever ever
4. Mariano Rivera - 2008 - Yankees - 10
So what do you think? Which stat better states the best reliever season of all time? I think it would be hard to argue about Craig Kimbrel's 2012. He struck out 50% of the batters he faced that season in a season where his WHIP was 0.654.
Monday, May 20, 2019
The Yankees This Week - Road Games With Orioles and Royals
I started writing these weekly previews on April 22 and the Yankees have gone 17-7 since that point. They had a record of 11-10 at the time. Being the superstitious sort when it comes to baseball, I figured I had best be faithful to continue writing them. Yeah, sure. Like I am the reason for their run to first place. Ha! But the mind works in foolish ways. And yes, I hear Stevie Wonder's "Superstition" playing in the background. The Yankees simply have to execute this week as this week on the road features two weak teams.
Tonight starts another four game series with the Orioles, this time in Baltimore. Camden Yards is a fun place for the Yankees to hit and the Orioles have only won two of their last eleven. That said, the Yankees again face Andrew Cashner tonight and he has pitched really well in three of his last four outings. Cashner has struck out twenty batters in his last sixteen innings. The team lost all four of those games, however, and Cashner is pretty much a lock to allow at least one home run in every game. JA Happ will need to be in better form as Cashner should keep his team in the game.
Tomorrow is a much better match up for the Yankees as Domingo German looks to continue his winning ways against the gopher-yielding David Hess. The rest of the series pitchers have not been announced but the Yankees will probably see Dylan Bundy late in the week and he was really great in his last start.
The Yankees need at least three wins in this series and a sweep would be fantastic. A split would be a major disappointment against such a highly struggling team.
The Kansas City Royals have just as many losses (31) as the Orioles. The Royals have lost nine of their last thirteen games. The Royals have many nice pieces. Alex Gorden is having a nice season and loves batting against the Yankees. Hunter Dozier and Whitt Merrifield are accomplished hitters having good seasons. And it appears that Adalberto Mondesi is a blossoming star at shortstop. Jorge Solar is a three-outcome hitter and leads the team in homers. But he has already struck out over 60 times.
The real loss for the Royals was Salvador Perez. His loss to Tommy John Surgery for the season seriously weakened them. His replacements, Martin Maldonado and Cam Gallagher, have been black holes at the plate. Think Austin Romine but much worse. Not a pretty picture, eh?
First base has also been a real problem for the Royals. Lucas Duda was not hitting and is now hurt. His replacement, Ryan O'Hearn has not yet found his Big League stroke.
Overall the Royals are ninth in the AL in offense. Not terrible but not great either. It is a team that likes to run and they lead the AL in caught stealing. But the Yankees have problems with base runners.
The starting pitching is where the Royals break down. They do not have a shut down starter or power arms. Only two teams in the AL have walked more batters and only one has given up more hits. Danny Duffy never became the star the Royals hoped he'd be, but he is probably the team's best starter.
The bullpen has three guys (old friend, Ian Kennedy is one) having decent seasons, but whenever there is a Wily Peralta to exploit then the bullpen does not scare you. They do not strike out a lot of batters (except for Jake Diekman) and the team's five saves are the lowest in the AL. It has been a bit sad to see Brad Boxberger's comeback effort not producing anything positive.
Like the Orioles series, a two out of three outcome against the Royals would be acceptable. A sweep would be awesome. Losing two out of three would be a major disappointment. The Yankees should go 5-2 this week. They very well could win six of seven or even all seven. But 5-2 will do it.
What to watch for this week
Tonight starts another four game series with the Orioles, this time in Baltimore. Camden Yards is a fun place for the Yankees to hit and the Orioles have only won two of their last eleven. That said, the Yankees again face Andrew Cashner tonight and he has pitched really well in three of his last four outings. Cashner has struck out twenty batters in his last sixteen innings. The team lost all four of those games, however, and Cashner is pretty much a lock to allow at least one home run in every game. JA Happ will need to be in better form as Cashner should keep his team in the game.
Tomorrow is a much better match up for the Yankees as Domingo German looks to continue his winning ways against the gopher-yielding David Hess. The rest of the series pitchers have not been announced but the Yankees will probably see Dylan Bundy late in the week and he was really great in his last start.
The Yankees need at least three wins in this series and a sweep would be fantastic. A split would be a major disappointment against such a highly struggling team.
The Kansas City Royals have just as many losses (31) as the Orioles. The Royals have lost nine of their last thirteen games. The Royals have many nice pieces. Alex Gorden is having a nice season and loves batting against the Yankees. Hunter Dozier and Whitt Merrifield are accomplished hitters having good seasons. And it appears that Adalberto Mondesi is a blossoming star at shortstop. Jorge Solar is a three-outcome hitter and leads the team in homers. But he has already struck out over 60 times.
The real loss for the Royals was Salvador Perez. His loss to Tommy John Surgery for the season seriously weakened them. His replacements, Martin Maldonado and Cam Gallagher, have been black holes at the plate. Think Austin Romine but much worse. Not a pretty picture, eh?
First base has also been a real problem for the Royals. Lucas Duda was not hitting and is now hurt. His replacement, Ryan O'Hearn has not yet found his Big League stroke.
Overall the Royals are ninth in the AL in offense. Not terrible but not great either. It is a team that likes to run and they lead the AL in caught stealing. But the Yankees have problems with base runners.
The starting pitching is where the Royals break down. They do not have a shut down starter or power arms. Only two teams in the AL have walked more batters and only one has given up more hits. Danny Duffy never became the star the Royals hoped he'd be, but he is probably the team's best starter.
The bullpen has three guys (old friend, Ian Kennedy is one) having decent seasons, but whenever there is a Wily Peralta to exploit then the bullpen does not scare you. They do not strike out a lot of batters (except for Jake Diekman) and the team's five saves are the lowest in the AL. It has been a bit sad to see Brad Boxberger's comeback effort not producing anything positive.
Like the Orioles series, a two out of three outcome against the Royals would be acceptable. A sweep would be awesome. Losing two out of three would be a major disappointment. The Yankees should go 5-2 this week. They very well could win six of seven or even all seven. But 5-2 will do it.
What to watch for this week
- With a long stretch of games without a day off, how many off days will Aaron Boone and company give his players? I think there will be more than what is comfortable. And it will continue to give me constipation.
- Clint Frazier has been stone cold since he came back from the DL. He was so hot before the ankle sprain. It is a shame. Frazier needs to hit.
- CC Sabathia needs two more wins to reach 250 for his career. I really feel like that is an important number for him to reach. Run support has been difficult in his starts. The Yankees need to get this done! 249 this week!?
- The Red Sox are playing the Blue Jays and Astros this week. They already picked up a win today. They should win four games this week.
- The Bay Rays have a tough week against the Dodgers and Indians. They might have difficulty winning four games this week.
- Five wins will extend the Yankees' hold on first place.
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