Final thoughts on the 2013 World Series

2013 is one of those times when the best team in baseball won the title. That does not always happen. Perhaps some of the players used the chip on their shoulders that few picked them to win the AL East, never mind the whole thing. I thought they would be vastly improved over a 2012, but I have to admit that I did not expect them to be the powerhouse they were in 2013. I did correctly pick a resurgence of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, but I thought David Ortiz would decline. You win some and you lose some.

I am not a big proponent of the character thing. A lot of World Series titles have been won with flawed characters playing on the winning team. What I do think is that the Red Sox are more prepared to play each game than any other team in baseball. One of the things that make Yankee fans gnash their teeth when it comes to the Red Sox is the knowledge that Boston is simply a smarter organization than the Yankees are.

And so are the Cardinals. What they did this season with the youth they had on the team, especially the pitching staff, was astounding. They were darned fun to watch this season.

And so was the entire post season. By now, most of you know that I have been a Yankee fan since the mid-1960s. Those were bad teams back then, so I do not consider it my birthright to have the team in the post season. But it was a great run from 1995 to 2012 seeing them in the post season every year but one.

But what I found fascinating is that I really enjoyed this post season because the Yankees were not playing in it. I did not have all that stress and simply watched each game with wide-eyed wonder and enjoyed baseball immensely. Twitter heightens that experience by watching it together with a thousand other people.

In my fifty years of watching baseball, I cannot remember a player so dominating a World Series like David Ortiz dominated this one. He got inside the heads of Cardinal pitchers unlike anything I have ever seen since the Barry Bonds days.

And Ortiz probably cemented his Hall of Fame case with this one. The DH is a position and David Ortiz is the best DH ever.

But Ortiz also showed why he is hated pretty universally outside of Boston with his post game "press conference." Once he grabbed the mic from Erin Andrews, he must have gone on for seven minutes. Can you imagine Series MVPs of the past doing that? Would Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stewart or Tom Glavine to be so self-serving? I cannot picture any of them puffing themselves up like Ortiz.

Part of David Ortiz's bravado is what makes him such a great player. It is also what makes him such a turn off.

Some other observations:

• Many considered this the coming out party of Xander Bogaerts. I did not see it that way. His series seemed good considering that until the last game, he was the only other player on his team besides Ortiz with an OPS over.700 in the Series. But he struck out 36.6% of the time and was not quite solid on defense. 
• It seems that Jonny Gomes should stop reading about himself on the Internet. His little rant against sabermetrics showed that he has read about himself and it has not been complimentary. Look, you cannot take away from the fact that his only two hits of the Series were big ones. But good golly, he pretty well sucked all the rest of the time.
• I was glad for Stephen Drew to have a good last game. His defense was a big reason the Red Sox had the season and post season they did. Defense in the post season is huge.
• And speaking of defense, Dustin Pedroia had an amazing season and an even more amazing post season in the field. He was everywhere.
• Carlos Beltran had another great post season. But I am not all that excited about him being a Yankee. He will be yet another aging player on a roster full of them and he will be yet another player that makes me grit my teeth watching him hit into the shift. Ugh.
• The post season signature of Michael Wacha and Trevor Rosenthal was truly fun to watch. They were amazing (Wacha's last game notwithstanding). 

It was a truly fun series. The best team won against the best team in the National League. My only hope is that after their victory parade, the Red Sox go en masse to a barber.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: October 30, 2013

The last game picks post was Monday and I even predicted a score. I predicted the score would end up, 3-1. I was exactly correct. But I picked the wrong team! Ahhh!! Five World Series games are now in the books and I have only picked one of them correctly. That has pushed my overall post season record to the point where it is just barely over .500 and the only thing that will keep me from getting below .500 is that there are only one or two games left.

And that is what today's pick is all about. Will the Series go two more games or one? Everything seems to be in Boston's favor right now. They are home with a 3-2 lead. They went to St. Louis and took two out of three there. Now they are in their home park with their own wildly screaming fans and pitch John Lackey who has already shown he can push around the Cardinals at Fenway Park. The only obstacle they have in front of them is Michael Wacha. Wacha was great and recorded a win against the Red Sox. But in that game, the Red Sox broke Wacha's magical spell and hit a two-run homer off of him.

So what will happen tonight? The pick:

• The Red Sox over the Cardinals: Wacha, no matter how good he is, is still green as a Major League pitcher. His post season story has been miraculous. For him to pitch another insanely good game seems against logic. This is going to be a Red Sox team with blood in their eyes looking for a way to strike. The Cardinals will be looking for a way not to lose the game while the Red Sox will be expecting to win it. The mental aspect of this game of baseball is not to be overlooked even if it cannot be measured. What I have seen in this series is a Red Sox team that had a plan against each pitcher they faced while the Cardinals have had no game plan going in to each game. The Cardinals have allowed the Red Sox pitchers determine the pace and the battle lines. It is that plan for the Red Sox and the lack of a plan by the Cardinals that has determined this series. The Red Sox win the sixth and final game of this 2013 World Series. But then again, I am 1-4 in the first five games, so what do I know?

Monday: 0-1

Post season: 20-18

Season: 1394-1085

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 28, 2013

I finished off yesterday's picks post by saying something silly about the game ending on catcher's interference. This 2013 World Series is proving that nothing is silly. No, it was not a catcher's interference. Instead it was a two-out pick-off with Carlos Beltran standing at the plate representing the tying run. But let's not get too carried away with the pick-off, even as embarrassing as it was. The odds of Beltran hitting Koji Uehara were still high. This game was pretty much over when Jonny Gomes (take THAT haters) hit his three-run homer off of Seth Maness.

And it was that homer that again put me in the wrong column. I have now incorrectly picked three of the four World Series games. I wrote a piece yesterday about how in Game Three, everything John Farrell did went wrong. In Game Four, everything Farrell did went right. Go figure. That is baseball.

So bring on Game Five, the last home game of the St. Louis Cardinals' season. The two aces of the staff will battle. Who will win? The pick:

• The Cardinals over the Red Sox: The last time these two starters met, Jon Lester was terrific and Adam Wainwright was much less so. Wainwright suffered from shoddy defense (including his own) but he was not "on" his game either. I believe tonight will be different. This is a big-time pitcher who has pitched his share of big-time games. He will be pitching in his home park in front of his own fans. The Red Sox still have to forego playing Mike Napoli as they lose the DH. I still expect Lester to pitch well. The Cardinals still have a problem with lefties. I see the score in a crisp, tight game of something like 3-1 or 3-2. But then again, why would you believe anything I predict? This is a great World Series in pretty much the same way a great NASCAR race includes spectacular wrecks.

Yesterday: 0-1

Post Season: 20-17

Season: 1394-1084

John Farrell's moves go bust in Game Three

Everyone will remember the obstruction call that ended Game Three. Some will remember Brandon Workman being allowed to hit in the ninth inning. That decision by Farrell was curious and probably correctly questioned with Koji Uehara in the bullpen. But none of Farrell's decisions worked out in the game--even the ones that were not questioned.

The one that stands out to me was Will Middlebrooks pinch hitting for Stephen Drew in the top of the seventh. You really cannot find fault with Farrell's call here. Drew has been missing in action at the plate for most of this post season. His only hit in this series was that silly popup that fell between Molina and Wainwright in Game One. Drew has been a strikeout machine.

Sure, you could argue that Middlebrooks has not been much better and that would be a valid point. But Drew had no chance, so you cannot fault Farrell.

Unfortunately, the decision moved Xander Bogaerts to short and put Middlebrooks at third and that came back to bite the Red Sox. Middlebrooks did not hit any better than Drew. Middlebrooks is probably not as good at third base as Bogaerts and Bogaerts might not have the game reactions that Stephen Drew has at short. And thus we have the bottom of the seventh.

With Bogaerts at short and Middlebrooks at third, the Cardinals started the bottom of the seventh against Craig Breslow who had just been brought into the game. Breslow has not had a stitch of luck in this series thus far. The first batter Breslow faced was Matt Carpenter.

Carpenter checked his swing on a Breslow offering and the ball squirted off towards short. Bogaerts did not get a good jump on the ball and his throw to first was late. There is no sense blaming David Ortiz at first for not scooping Bogaert's low throw because Carpenter would have been safe anyway.

Does Drew make that play? Probably. Does Drew react quicker than Bogaerts did? Maybe, maybe not.. But Bogaerts did not make the play and Farrell's move does not work out.

The next batter should have gone differently. It was Carlos Beltran batting right-handed. And being a modern hitter, Beltran was allowed to wear this protective elbow gear while batting. I do not like them and feel such devices give the batter more comfort and an advantage at the plate. Breslow's offering was inside. Beltran made no attempt to get out of the way. Slow-motion replay showed Beltran even moving his elbow slightly into the path of the pitch.

Beltran should not have been awarded first. But he was to make it first and second with no outs. That brought Matt Holliday to the plate and Farrell's decision bit him again. There is no doubt that Holliday hit a hard shot toward the line at third off of new reliever, Junichi Tawaza. But Middlebrooks seemed flat-footed on the play and though the shot was within a few feet of him, he could not make even a stop on the play. Both Carpenter and Beltran scored on the double that resulted. Bogaerts might have made a play on that smash.

Personally, I believe both of those plays, the one from Carpenter's check swing and the one from Holliday's smash, might have gone differently with the original infield set in place. Farrell did not get any offense from the move and seemed to get worse defense. But we are not done yet.

Flash forward to the bottom of the ninth when we get that unbelievable finish to the game on the obstruction call at third. That call never comes into play if Middlebrooks catches Saltalamacchia's throw. It looked like Craig would have been safe at third. But that would be it and there is no obstruction call.

Saltalamacchia's throw was wide. But it was catchable. Middlebrooks did not catch it. Would Bogaerts have caught it? I think so. Middlebrooks made two nonathletic plays at third. Xander Bogaerts is much more athletic than Middlebrooks. We will never know, of course, but that is my feeling on how things turned out.

Brandon Workman batting in the ninth? While the above decisions did not work out for Farrell, they at least can be defended to try to get some offense. But Workman batting for himself was indefensible. That never should have happened.

Postscript: I have a problem with the official scoring of the game. Workman's last base runner was Yadier Molina. He was thrown out at home. The winning run was scored by Allen Craig, who was Uehara's base runner. Why then did Workman get the loss? It should have been Uehara's loss.

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: October 27, 2013

Well...that was different. The St. Louis Cardinals won Game 3 of the World Series in about as unlikely a fashion as anything most people will ever see in their lifetimes. An obstruction call at third base ended it after Jarrod Saltalamacchia's throw bounced off the tip of Will Middlebrook's glove, off Allen Craig and into the left field foul grounds. I believe the call was the correct one. But Saltalamacchia's throw was off line, Middlebrooks did not catch it and the Cardinals go home a winner. Somewhere, a dead announcer is saying, "How about that." The play was the third time in this World Series where the go ahead run was caused by throwing the ball to third base to try and get a runner. Unbelievable.

The Red Sox are angry, understandably. Just about every player interviewed started by saying, "I don't know the rulebook..." Exactly. But they are upset. How will that translate to Game Four? That is what this post has to figure out.

If the Red Sox focus that anger on the Cardinals in Game Four, they could be fueled to victory. If they glower internally, they could have a feeling the odds are against them and that would not be a good way to go after this game. How will they react? And what of the pitching match-up?

There has to be a pick. Here it is:

• The Cardinals over the Red Sox: If this was the average, healthy Clay Buchholz, this pick would be for the Red Sox. But he has been saying all week that his arm feels dead. He has pitched in the post season like his arm is dead. That is not encouraging. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn won seventeen games. But it feels sort of like a Phil Hughes sort of winning record. Lynn has fallen apart often in the last couple of months. But, unlike Hughes, he is capable of a shut down game. But let's say that neither pitcher does well. In that case, the Red Sox are not in good shape. The Cardinals have Shelby Miller and none of their relievers overextended themselves in Game Three. The Red Sox burned through Felix Doubront and he likely would not be available. That leaves them with Franklin Morales or Ryan Dempster for long relief. Neither of those options seem appealing. But baseball being the great game it is, all this theorizing could be moot and the game could end on a catcher's interference call. Who knows.

Yesterday: 1-0

Post season: 20-16

Season: 1394-1083

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 26, 2013

The World Series has gone two games now and I have been zero for two in picking the outcomes. Such a dismal output is a natural function of the unpredictability of post season baseball. The first and second games were decided on shoddy defensive play and the winning team taking advantage of that play. So what can we expect tonight? Golly if I know.

Naturally, there are always questions. If David Ortiz plays first base, how much will the Red Sox miss Mike Napoli's bat and glove? Is John Farrell finally over his Jonny Gomes fetish and will play Daniel Nava? Which pitcher between Joe Kelly and Jake Peavy will have a good outing when both have been questionable so far this post season?

Well, I need to make a prediction, so here goes. The pick:

• The Cardinals over the Red Sox: I have no faith in Jake Peavy these days. Since replacing Ryan Dempster, he has turned into Ryan Dempster after a good first month with the Red Sox. The Cardinals get the first home game so if they score early, that crowd will be deafening. Joe Kelly will have to pitch well and if he is on his game, that 94 MPH two-seam fastball will need to result in ground balls and some pop ups. If either starter falters or if both do, I like the Red Sox middle relief better than the Cardinals. I see two possible outcomes here. One is a slugfest with neither starter doing well. If that happens, the Red Sox have the advantage. The other outcome is Joe Kelly pitching well. I do not see Jake Peavy pitching well either way.

Thursday: 0-1

Post season: 19-16

Season: 1393-1083

Man-crushing on Trevor Rosenthal

One tweet last night seemed to say it all when it came to the Cardinals' victory over the Boston Red Sox last night in Game Two of the World Series:

The "old guy" pitching for the Cards today - Trevor Rosenthal - coming on for save chance. He turned 23 in May.
— Kevin Wheeler (@KMOXWheeler) October 25, 2013

That "old guy" was simply amazing...again.

I find Trevor Rosenthal to be thrilling to watch. There are two great closers in this series. Koji Uehara has also been amazing this season. But he is a different kind of closer. If you look closely at Uehara's statistics, he relies on deception to get the job done. He enticed batters to swing at 43% of his pitches outside the strike zone and throws only 50% of his pitches in the zone.

This means that if a team could set its mind, that team could take a bunch of pitches and make Uehara throw strikes. While that is very hard to do as my bud, Ben Dobbs, points out, it is still doable. It was such a strategy the Red Sox employed to beat Fernando Rodney earlier in the post season.

But no such strategy can beat Trevor Rosenthal. All he does is throw lethal gas that is at times untouchable. He threw eleven pitches and struck out the side...again. He threw two balls and one of them was borderline. The other ball missed by just a couple of inches. His pitches ranged from 96.1 miles per hour to 99.4. He averaged 98. Just look at this pitch chart from Brooksbaseball.net:

Do you see anything in the middle of the plate? Nope. The Red Sox tried to wait him out like they do with most pitchers. That was a waste of time with Rosenthal. Of the nine strikes he recorded, only three were swung at. None of those swings connected. 

That chart is amazing. How many pitchers can throw that hard and yet still go in and out in the strike zone and not be touched? And the in and out do not appear to be an accident. Let's look at each batter:

Johnny Gomes

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Daniel Nava

In, out, up and down. Paint. No chance. 

The Red Sox had their hands full last night. Michael Wacha threw 65 fastballs with a average of 93.7 and a tops of 96.8 MPH. Then they saw 21 fastballs from Carlos Martinez that averaged 96.5 and a tops of 98.6. And Martinez was brilliant too, no doubt about that.

But it is Trevor Rosenthal that I cannot wait to see. My man-crush is full blown. I love this guy.