Complaints about replay are stupid

I will give John Farrell some slack here as he was frustrated about losing three of four to the Yankees. But his complaints about the new instant replay system fall flat on my ears. By my count, there have been two calls that the replay system has gotten incorrect. The one happened in the Red Sox - Yankees series where Dean Anna did lift his foot off the base and should have been called out. MLB stated the call should have been reversed. That was one of the two. Big deal.

On MLB Network's Intentional Talk program, it was mentioned that thus far 32 calls have been reversed with the replay system and 34 had been upheld. The time factor has not been that big of a deal and the only irritant is when the manager hangs around to wait to see if his people give him the thumbs up or not on whether to challenge the play. How is this slowing the game down when most of those plays would have been arguments between the manager and umpires anyway? The arguments take longer.

So the time is not a problem. Then what is? Yes, two have been botched. You would think with the system they have set up there would be no missed calls. But okay, two calls have been missed. But 32 have been overturned. That is 32 incorrect calls that would have stood if the replay system was not in place.

Two incorrect versus 32? Wouldn't that be a success under any kind of accounting? The bottom line here is that 32 calls would have been umpire goofs without the system. Is that preferable to Mr. Farrell or anyone else? I would not think so.

The entire idea of instant replay is to get the calls correct on the field. We are closer than ever before of making that happen with a margin of error of two calls. The instant replay is a big hit for me because the correct calls in games are what I want. I do not want games decided by a bad umpire decision. Now all we need is robot balls and strikes and I will be a complete happy camper. Good job, MLB. Keep it up.

How did that pace thing work out for the Red Sox?

When John Farrell took over as the manager of the Red Sox and Juan Nieves came on board as the pitching coach, the early stories out of Spring Training were that the Red Sox pitching, which had crashed and burned in 2012, was going to pick up the pace. I was one that had applauded the notion as the Red Sox pitchers were notoriously slow workers. After the season is all said and done, how did that work out? Did the Red Sox pitchers work more quickly?

No matter what answers are found here, you cannot complain about the results. You cannot improve upon winning the World Series. So give Farrell and Nieves all the credit in the world and nobody can argue with you. All I am interested here is whether their goal was met when it came to pace.

Let's take a look:

Pitcher:  2013, 2012, 2011 (in seconds)

• Jon Lester: 23.2, 23.2, 24.2
• Clay Buchholz: 24.2, 25.6, 26.7
• John Lackey: 22.3, ---, 23.1 
• Felix Doubront: 22.9, 23.9, 27.1
• Franklin Morales: 23.5, 24.2, 25.8

Team: 23.4, 24.1, 24.7  - sixth slowest, first slowest, first slowest

The final results do see a slight quickening of pace for the Red Sox over 2012. After being the slowest pitching staff for two years in a row, they tied for the sixth slowest in 2013. Buchholz and Doubront seemed to get the message the clearest and were markedly improved. Others, not so much. And pitchers like Lackey and Dempster worked with a much quicker pace (both around 20 seconds) before they came to the Red Sox. So take that as you will.

The other story line from Spring Training was pounding the strike zone more. Again, there was only slight improvement:

• First pitch strikes: 60.0% (2013), 59.8% (2012), 59.1% (2011)
• Zone percentage: 44.3% (2013), 44.7 (2012), 45.1% (2013)
• Walks per nine: 3.24 (2013), 3.30 (2012), 3.33 (2011)

As I look at these numbers, I see where Nieves had an effect on two of his starting pitchers and a slight, but largely insignificant improvement on "attacking the strike zone." I guess the moral of the story is not to get too wrapped up in stories out of Spring Training.

The other moral of the story is not to complain about success because the Red Sox had it in abundance.

John Farrell's moves go bust in Game Three

Everyone will remember the obstruction call that ended Game Three. Some will remember Brandon Workman being allowed to hit in the ninth inning. That decision by Farrell was curious and probably correctly questioned with Koji Uehara in the bullpen. But none of Farrell's decisions worked out in the game--even the ones that were not questioned.

The one that stands out to me was Will Middlebrooks pinch hitting for Stephen Drew in the top of the seventh. You really cannot find fault with Farrell's call here. Drew has been missing in action at the plate for most of this post season. His only hit in this series was that silly popup that fell between Molina and Wainwright in Game One. Drew has been a strikeout machine.

Sure, you could argue that Middlebrooks has not been much better and that would be a valid point. But Drew had no chance, so you cannot fault Farrell.

Unfortunately, the decision moved Xander Bogaerts to short and put Middlebrooks at third and that came back to bite the Red Sox. Middlebrooks did not hit any better than Drew. Middlebrooks is probably not as good at third base as Bogaerts and Bogaerts might not have the game reactions that Stephen Drew has at short. And thus we have the bottom of the seventh.

With Bogaerts at short and Middlebrooks at third, the Cardinals started the bottom of the seventh against Craig Breslow who had just been brought into the game. Breslow has not had a stitch of luck in this series thus far. The first batter Breslow faced was Matt Carpenter.

Carpenter checked his swing on a Breslow offering and the ball squirted off towards short. Bogaerts did not get a good jump on the ball and his throw to first was late. There is no sense blaming David Ortiz at first for not scooping Bogaert's low throw because Carpenter would have been safe anyway.

Does Drew make that play? Probably. Does Drew react quicker than Bogaerts did? Maybe, maybe not.. But Bogaerts did not make the play and Farrell's move does not work out.

The next batter should have gone differently. It was Carlos Beltran batting right-handed. And being a modern hitter, Beltran was allowed to wear this protective elbow gear while batting. I do not like them and feel such devices give the batter more comfort and an advantage at the plate. Breslow's offering was inside. Beltran made no attempt to get out of the way. Slow-motion replay showed Beltran even moving his elbow slightly into the path of the pitch.

Beltran should not have been awarded first. But he was to make it first and second with no outs. That brought Matt Holliday to the plate and Farrell's decision bit him again. There is no doubt that Holliday hit a hard shot toward the line at third off of new reliever, Junichi Tawaza. But Middlebrooks seemed flat-footed on the play and though the shot was within a few feet of him, he could not make even a stop on the play. Both Carpenter and Beltran scored on the double that resulted. Bogaerts might have made a play on that smash.

Personally, I believe both of those plays, the one from Carpenter's check swing and the one from Holliday's smash, might have gone differently with the original infield set in place. Farrell did not get any offense from the move and seemed to get worse defense. But we are not done yet.

Flash forward to the bottom of the ninth when we get that unbelievable finish to the game on the obstruction call at third. That call never comes into play if Middlebrooks catches Saltalamacchia's throw. It looked like Craig would have been safe at third. But that would be it and there is no obstruction call.

Saltalamacchia's throw was wide. But it was catchable. Middlebrooks did not catch it. Would Bogaerts have caught it? I think so. Middlebrooks made two nonathletic plays at third. Xander Bogaerts is much more athletic than Middlebrooks. We will never know, of course, but that is my feeling on how things turned out.

Brandon Workman batting in the ninth? While the above decisions did not work out for Farrell, they at least can be defended to try to get some offense. But Workman batting for himself was indefensible. That never should have happened.

Postscript: I have a problem with the official scoring of the game. Workman's last base runner was Yadier Molina. He was thrown out at home. The winning run was scored by Allen Craig, who was Uehara's base runner. Why then did Workman get the loss? It should have been Uehara's loss.

Projecting 2011 Rookie Managers

The old expression, "Hope springs eternal," should be changed for baseball to, "Spring hopes eternal."  It's a new season, a new chapter, a chance for some teams to redeem themselves, a chance for some teams to try to repeat past success and for some teams, a hope that this could be the year that turns the franchise around. For some teams, hopes revolved around players acquired in the off season. For others, there is hope that a rookie will be the real deal and help turn things around. But for six teams and their fans, hope also involves rookie managers. The list includes some that got their feet wet on an interim basis last year: Mike Quade (Cubs), Kirk Gibson (Diamondbacks) and Edwin Rodriguez (Marlins). The other three teams have managers with no MLB experiences: Don Mattingly (Dodgers), Ron Roenicke (Brewers) and John Farrell (Blue Jays).

Sparky Anderson once said that players make the manager and not the other way around. While that is a modest approach and typical of Anderson, he's not entirely correct. The wrong manager in the wrong place doing the wrong things can hurt a team. And the right manager in the right place at the right time can help lift a team a couple of games higher than expected. The Pirates of the last few years would have been a bad team no matter who the manager was, but John Russell was just the wrong guy at the wrong time. The same can be said for the Royals the last few years. Conversely, this writer really believes that the Rays were two or three wins better because Maddon was in the dugout and the Angels overcame funky run differentials because Mike Scioscia wast in their dugout. Can the Fan prove that statistically? Probably not. But just the same.

It's a real mind exercise to project managers that have never managed before. But we can look at some team projections and other situations in those six opportunities to get some sort of feel for what lies ahead for these managers. For some, the pressure will be intense, but for others, expectations are lower. So let's look at the six rookies and see what they may face, starting with the interim-turned-managers. They are listed in no particular order.

Kirk Gibson - Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks finished last season with 97 losses. It was a pitiful year which saw the team set a record for strikeouts...but not by the pitchers. They also had one of the worst bullpens in recent memory. Kevin Towers has taken over now and has made strides to improve the team. Strikeout guys like Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche are gone and bullpen help has been added. Kibson took over for A. J. Hinch after the first 79 games and sadly, Gibson's winning percentage was not much higher in his 83 games as the team went 34-49 the rest of the way. The team is projected to lose 87 games in 2011. That's a ten game improvement, but according to projections, the record will still keep the Diamondbacks in last place. The upside for Gibson is that the expectations won't be so high. If the team can improve ten or more games on 2010's season, it will be somewhat of a success. Upton and Drew still have further upside potential and could break out to be superstars this season. The bullpen may not be as much of a craps shoot. The potential downside is that Gibson isn't really Towers' guy as Gibson was already on staff before Towers got there. If the team loses 90 or more games again, Gibson probably won't survive. The pitching staff, while potentially better, has to have a lot go right to succeed. The Fan's Projection: This will be Gibson's only full season in the saddle.

Edwin Rodriguez - Florida Marlins: Edwin Rodriguez took over for Fredi Gonzalez after 70 games. Gonzalez was fired because the team was staying around the .500 level and that wasn't acceptable. Well, Rodriguez finished at 46-46...yup, .500. But that was enough to take the "interim" tag off his name plate and give him the job full up. The Marlins have a lot of upside but a lot of question marks too. They have young talent, an enigmatic shortstop and they lost Dan Uggla's big bat in the middle of the line up. The team is projected to win 84 games this year, which is better than last year and enough to be a pest in the NL East, but not enough to compete for the division or the wildcard. The upside for Rodriguez is that if this team gels and puts together 90 wins, he would look like a genius. And with their young talent, that very well could happen. Logan Morrison, Chris Coglan, and Mike Stanton could all blossom together. Hanley Ramirez is saying all the right things and if he can back it up, he's one of the best players in the league. This team could really take off if the pitching holds up. The dangers for Rodriguez is in being too much of a players' manager. Ramirez certainly needs a firm hand at times as will others. The other danger for Rodriguez is that he could just be a one year stopgap for the Marlins' last year in their old ball park. The Fan's Projection: This will be Rodriguez's only full year with the Marlins. They will hire a bigger name going into their new park in 2012 unless the Marlins break out spectacularly to a 90+ win team.

Mike Quade - Chicago Cubs: None of the other interim-turned-full-scale managers are under the pressure that Mike Quade is under. The Cubs have a large payroll, a long history of not winning the World Series and are a highly supported team in one of the best baseball markets in the world. Faithful Cubs fans want to win so bad, they ache. Quade seemed to make a statement last year that sometimes, a manager can make a difference. The team was moribund under Lou Piniella and were sitting at 51-74 when Quade took over. The team went 24-13 the rest of the way. The projections are for the team to win 80 games in 2011 and come in fourth place in the division. Obviously, the projectionists aren't convinced. Matt Garza joins the rotation, which could help. The obvious pitfalls are the fact that the Cubs are just as poorly constructed personnel-wise as they were last year. They are still stuck with some clunky contracts for guys that haven't been earning their keep of late. And Jim Hendry is not high on the faithful fans' holiday card list. So the GM will be under a lot of pressure as well. Another potential pitfall is that Quade set the bar really high in his 37 games last year. However, if the older players can have good years and if Garza pitches big and Zambrano pitches like he did at the end of 2010, this team could excel and win 90 games. The division is wide open. Perhaps the Cubs will be the Reds of 2011. The Fan's Projection: Quade will survive the year. The team should have no trouble meeting or exceeding the projections and if they can do that, he should be fine. Everyone seems to like the guy.

And now for the rookie rookies:

Don Mattingly - Los Angeles Dodgers: In some ways, Mattingly is in the best situation of all the rookie managers. The ownership of the team has become a circus, everyone knows they don't really have that much money to throw around and the team finished just below .500 last year. So any kind of improvement will be seen as a positive for Mattingly. Of course, his lack of any kind of managing experience will be scrutinized with every move he makes and he is following a legend in Joe Torre. Projections for the team have been optimistic with 87 wins being seen as the expected outcome. That would put the Dodgers three games behind the Giants' projection and in position to compete for the wildcard too. So the upside for Mattingly is all rosy in that if those projections work out, Mattingly's season will be a success. Kemp could bounce back and Ethier could stay healthy all year. The pitching looks fine. The potential pitfall is that Mattingly could make a couple of glaring rookie mistakes that would put his lack of experience under a microscope. The Fan's Projection: Mattingly has a honeymoon year, the team is better than last year and he will be deemed a success.

John Farrell - Toronto Blue Jays: Farrell is also in a no lose situation. The team seems to be focused on the future with the way it is hoarding prospects. And thus, the expectations for this year are not as high. He will also get a lot of benefit from his reputation and the reputation of the organization he came from (Red Sox). The projections are really low for the team too considering they won 85 games last year. They are projected to win only 76 in 2011. This is a little mind-blowing considering the young pitching and the firepower in the line up they have. If Adam Lind and Aaron Hill come closer to their 2009 seasons than their awful 2010 seasons and J. P. Arencibia can take over as the catcher and if Yunel Escobar can live up to his talent, the upsides for Farrell are all over the place. Anything over 81 wins will be seen as a success and a building block to 2012 and 2013. The only pitfall for Farrell is if the team really crumbles and finishes with 90 losses or something. The Fan's Projection: Farrell will be just fine for a fan base that was ready to see Cito Gaston go.

Rick Roenicke - Milwaukee Brewers: Roenicke is the rookie manager on the hot seat. His team went out and got Marcum and Greinke to anchor the rotation and the offense is potent. Projections for the team are for 85 wins and a shot at winning the NL Central crown (tied with the Cardinals). That's a lot to live up to for a rookie manager. The Brewers fully expect to compete in 2011 and it's critical to maintaining the momentum in fan base they have experienced in the last five years. No pressure though. The upside for Roenicke is that Fielder will be playing for a contract no matter what happens in the future. And the Brewers general manager has given Roenicke the tools he needs to compete. The pitfall, of course, would be the very high expectations of the team for 2011. If the team is slow out of the gate and ends up a non-factor, Roenicke's romance with Milwaukee will end quickly. The Fan's projection: The Brewers will compete in 2011 and Roenicke survives his first year as a manager in the bigs.

Nice Timing By the Blue Jays

Doesn't it seem fitting that during the week that Sparky Anderson passes away, that his erstwhile phenom, Torey Lovullo got hired by a MLB team? Anderson was always touting this prospect or that one and many times, it became a laughable joke because the players ended up being terrible. Torey Lovullo was one of those. When Sparky called up Lovullo, his famous quote was: "I'll die before Lovullo comes out of the lineup." Fortunately for us, Sparky didn't die and Lovullo came out of the line up after batting .112 in over 100 at bats.

Remarkably, Lovullo did managed to eke out parts of seven years in the big leagues. He only had one year where he approached being a regular player and that was in 1993 with the Angels. Lovullo finished with a 69 lifetime OPS+.

Of course, Anderson was a pretty lousy baseball player too, but he was a great manager and Lovullo's playing career should have no impact on what he will do as a major league coach. But his hiring wasn't the only Toronto hire. They also hired former Mariner manager, Don Wakamatsu, as their bench coach. John Farrell will have an excellent side kick there (in this writer's opinion).

Another hire was Pat Hentgen, the Blue Jays former Cy Young Award winner. He will join the team as its bullpen coach. Blue Jays fans should get a great kick out of seeing Hentgen in a Blue Jays uniform again.

Blue Jays Make a Great Choice

The Blue Jays have reportedly selected John Farrell, the Red Sox pitching coach and former player personnel man for the Indians, as their next manager. The Blue Jays certainly took their time making their selection to the point that their Due Diligence started making their fan base a little wacky. But as long as all that energy ends up with the correct results, all you can do in the end is praise it. Red Sox owner, John Henry, was effusive about Farrell and congratulated the Blue Jays for their selection.

Naturally, the selection could end up being a bust. But any selection can do just the same. That's the chance you take. But you can at least hedge your bets by selecting a guy that has universal respect in the game and seems like just the kind of guy the Blue Jays need. The Blue Jays will live and die by how good their young pitching is over the next few years. The Blue Jays seemed poised to be in the same position as the Padres were going into 2010 with their young pitching. The huge difference is that the Blue Jays have a much better offense than the Padres, especially if they can address their OBP issues.

And the comparison with the Padres is no accident. The Padres are also led by an ex-pitcher in Bud Black. Black infuses his pitchers with a sense of purpose, hard preparation and responsibility. Farrell will do no less with the Blue Jays' young pitching. Plus, Farrell has been part of a Red Sox organization that stresses working the count and getting a good pitch to hit. He should bring some of that to the Blue Jays, who could use a dose of better thought processes to their offense. As good as the Blue Jays offense was, imagine how good it could be if Jose Bautista wasn't the only Blue Jay with as impressive an OBP as a slugging percentage.

The Blue Jays have been incredibly smart the past year and the hiring of John Farrell as their next manager seems to be one of the smarter moves yet.