MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 18, 2014

Yesterday was bad for this old picker. Real bad. "How bad was it?" shouts the crowd. The Diamondbacks scored 18 runs in a game where Clayton Kershaw started. Edwin Jackson threw seven shutout innings and his bullpen did not blow it.  Homer Bailey was terrible after being brilliant the game before. Cole Hamels actually got...you know...run support.  Who would expect all those things to happen? But they did.

Okay. It's just a day. I can make it better with a good Sunday. I am buckling down. And here come Sunday's picks:

• The Athletics over the Indians: The way the rest of the weekend has been for the Indians, this has to be the pick. Yes, Justin Masterson could have a good day. But Jesse Chavez could too. And if the two cancel each other out, then the A's have the better bullpen.
• The Yankees split with the Pirates: A good old-fashioned double-header where one ticket can get you two games. Holy cow, what a concept. I like the Yankees in the first game with Hiroki Kuroda over Charlie Morton. But power pitchers like Gerrit Cole gives the Yankees problems and I like him over Vidal Nuno.
• The Phillies over the Reds: Cliff Lee still doesn't walk anyone, but he has given up 69 hits and five homers in 61+ innings. I still think he has a good day against the Reds and I don't like Tony Cingrani coming off the DL and not having pitched for eighteen days.
• The Nationals over the Mets: This pick did not work out yesterday. And one of these days Zack Wheeler will put it together. I still like and will stick with Jordan Zimmermann.
• The Orioles over the Royals: One of two things will happen here. Either James Shields will be too much for the Orioles OR they will notch him for three homers. There is no in between. Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching against the AL Central, something he does better than against the AL East.
• The Astros over the White Sox: This one has a lot of options. Brad Peacock had been pretty awful for most of the season. But his last two starts were much better (even though he didn't win). So I am looking for him to get his first win of the season today. I do this because I think the Astros have enough right-handed bats to hit John Danks.
• The Mariners over the Twins: The Mariners need this one, especially with Felix Hernandez on the mound. He should enjoy pitching in the big ballpark. Ricky Nolasco is the wild card.
• The Braves over the Cardinals: Ugh. I hate this one. Jaime Garcia is starting his first game in like forever. He only pitched seven innings on his rehab in the minors and did not look great with lots of hits and homers. But I also don't like Gavin Floyd for the Braves either. Like I said, Ugh.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: The Brewers are free-falling a bit. And Gomez has a bad back. And the Brewers are facing the Cubs' very good pitcher, Travis Wood. I don't think Marco Estrada is the answer to reverse the weekend thus far.
• The Blue Jays over the Rangers: Nick Martinez, who starts today for the Rangers, is not stretched out. He has been in the bullpen. He walks too many batters. He hasn't given up any homers despite more fly balls than ground balls. That will change today. At the same time, I am unsure about R.A. Dickey in Texas.
• The Bay Rays over the Angels: Matt Shoemaker hasn't been bad for the Angels. But he isn't David Price. And David Price hadn't been David Price until his last outing. So this is a tough one to pick. I have to go with Price.
• The Giants over the Marlins: This pick wasn't right yesterday and I am a bit afraid of the Ryan Vogelsong to Giancarlo Stanton match-up. But Jacob Turner persuades me to go with the Giants.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Will the La Russa effect continue today? I don't think so. I think it was just a coincidence. I like Dan Haren over Josh Collmenter on most days.
• The Tigers over the Red Sox: To begin with, I think the Tigers will hit Jake Peavy. But how well will Anibal Sanchez pitch? He has been nonexistent all season for the Tigers. The Red Sox are in a bit of a disarray though with Bradley and Bogaerts struggling and problems at third base.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rockies over the Padres: Donn Roach has made twelve relief appearances for the Padres. And he is being asked to start in Coors Field. Good luck with that. Juan Nicasio for the win.

Yesterday: 6-9, May: 125-109, Games of the Day: 21-23, Season: 358-281

Brad Peacock could show bright colors

Curiosity is a wonderful thing. This time of year, like everyone else, I spend a lot of time looking at mlbtraderumors.com to see what is going on in the baseball world. A little blip about Brad Peacock in a recent post caught my eye and made me curious. The little blip said the following:

"Jason Collette of Fangraphs examined the transformation that Astros righty Brad Peacock made after being sent down to the minors midway through the 2013 campaign. Peacock adopted a slider that made a world of difference for his repertoire, and as Collette notes, the changes were obvious to GM Jeff Luhnow, manager Bo Porter and catcher Jason Castro."

I took my curiosity and went and poured over Peacock's numbers, particularly in the second half and found some pretty surprising things. I then read Jason' Collette's piece and came away with the conclusion that the Astros just may have gotten some value after all in Peacock as part of the trade with the Astros for Jed Lowrie. 

When you first arrive at Brad Peacock's player page at baseball-reference.com, 2013 was not a pretty sight. He made 18 appearances and 14 starts and it all led to zero rWAR, an ERA of 5.18, a WHIP of 1.380 and 1.6 homers per nine innings. There is no way to slant those numbers to make them pretty. According to Fangraphs.com, his RA9-WAR was -0.2. Ugh. 

It is only by going to the splits that you see what Collette, Luhnow, Porter and Castro were talking about. But let's go a little bit further back than last year and take a broader look at Peacock's history. 

Brad Peacock was born in Palm Beach, Florida, which is pretty cool because that is where my mom lives. He must not have been that highly touted a high school prospect because he ended up going to a community college in that same community. Scouts could not have rated him that highly there either because he was not drafted until the 41st round (by the Nationals) in the 2006 draft.

Peacock then spent four years trudging through the low minors in unspectacular fashion. And then he suddenly had this magical year in 2011 that saw him combine a 15-3 record with a 2.39 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. He got called up to the Nationals at the end of 2011 and went 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in 12 innings that included three appearances and two starts. A 17-3 season with those ERA numbers were impressive enough to rank him as the 37th top prospect before the 2012 season by Baseball America.

He was then traded to the Oakland A's as part of the deal that sent Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals. And his 2012 was not good at all. He spent the entire year in Triple-A in the PCL, a difficult place to pitch and everything fell apart. His ERA for the season topped six. His WHIP went over 1.5, his strikeouts dipped slightly and his walk rate rose.

Despite his bad season, the Astros, probably influenced by Kevin Goldstein, who was always high on him as Collette mentions, asked for him in the trade that sent Lowrie to the A's. Despite his poor Triple-A season, the Astros invited Peacock to Spring Training and he made the opening roster for 2013.

It could not have gone worse for Peacock in the early part of the 2013 season. He made five straight starts to open the season and lost three out of four decisions. His games scores for those starts (with 50 being average) were 51, 49, 47, 17, 26. He then was banished to the bullpen and made four outings more out there.

By the time he was sent down to the minors at the end of that run, his ERA was 8.07. His WHIP was 1.759. His strikeout to walk ratio was only 1.32. And he was getting hammered by homers. All batters combined to have an OPS against him of .998. Oy! It now seems obvious in hindsight that he was a pitch short of being a Major League pitcher.

The Astros did the right thing and sent him back down to the minors. And he was a pitch short, which he admitted as Collette mentioned in his article. The evidence is in his swing and miss rate. Even in his brief time with the Nationals in 2011, he only had eight swinging strikes in those twelve innings he pitched. And he only missed 26 bats in his first 138 batters he faced in 2013. 

According to Collette, Peacock discovered a slider down in the minors and he must have done so fairly quickly upon turning up there. He made fourteen appearances for Oklahoma City in the PCL and thirteen of those were starts. He went 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA. His WHIP was very good at 1.101 and his strikeout to walk ratio was 3.85. Something obvious had changed.

The Astros brought him back in early August and he came back with a bang (granted, it was against the Twins) and struck out ten batters in his first start back. His missed 13 bats in the outing. He had never before topped eight swinging strikes in his brief career.

August ended up a pretty good month for him. His ERA was still a bit high at 3.94. But his OPS against was a much better at .673.

What I really want to focus on is September. Brad Peacock was really good in September. His OPS against in four September starts was .622. His ERA in that month was 3.28 with a FIP of 2.80. His strikeout to walk ratio was 4.17 and his home run rate plummeted. Most impressively, his strike rate was over 64% in the month of September. 

If you look at his pitch type and at his PitchF/X totals, he did not throw a slider in the Majors until he returned from the minors in August. And yet that pitch was valued at 2.6 runs above average. He has found a real weapon to miss bats. As Collette mentions, he was more aggressive in the strike zone which allowed him to put away batters at a rate he had not achieved before (25%). 

Brad Peacock came back in August as a different pitcher. Now, two months do not make a career. I understand that. And we will have to see how he builds on it from here. But Brad Peacock is not getting any love from projections like Oliver and Steamer. But he could be a real sleeper and, if he stays healthy and does what he did at the end of 2013, could be a real good pitcher for the Astros in 2014. Remember his name because Brad Peacock could show bright colors in 2014.

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 18, 2013

Although I had a decent picking day and am having a good picking week, a failure milestone was reached yesterday. I went past a thousand incorrect picks for the season yesterday. While I know from four years of experience that such a failure rate will occur, it is one of those numbers that brings reality home. I have been wrong a thousand times this season. I am pretty sure that this is the earliest I have reached the mark as this has been a difficult season.

It is hard to believe that there are only eleven days left in the season. Wednesday's picks:

• The White Sox over the Twins: The battle of bad teams continues and the White Sox have won the first two games of the series. A sweep is in sight in this getaway day game. John Danks should finally get a win and Scott Diamond has the bullpen lose it late.
• The Athletics over the Angels: A.J. Griffin at home is a really solid pick. Jason Vargas is capable of putting up a good game, especially in a big ballpark like the Coliseum. I expect low scoring and a tight game.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Nats have won nine out of ten and are surging perhaps a bit too late to reach the Reds. They are still four and a half games out. While Ross Ohlendorf has been amazing, I think Alex Wood will be better.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: This is a battle of fringe Major League pitchers. Zach Minor has had several turns in the Majors but has never been able to stick. He has pitched thirteen times in relief for Philly, but this is his first start. Nathan Eovaldi has had a good game here and there with a bunch of mediocrity thrown in.
• The Pirates over the Padres: The Padres have beaten the Pirates two days in a row with some nice pitching. Either that or the Pirates bats have gone in a slump. The good news for the Pirates is that Tyson Ross is not nearly as good as the first two pitchers they faced in this series. Charlie Morton with the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Have you ever watched Survivor and one of the challenges is trying to stack these wooden card pieces to a certain height? That reminds me of the Yankees season. The Yankees come to the next to last week with their cards stacked wobbly near the top only to all come crashing down before reaching the end.  J.A. Happ over Phil Hughes.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma has had a very nice season. And he should do well in the Tigers' big ballpark. So the question remains of what Justin Verlander shows up. He looked much more dominant his last outing. I have to go with Verlander at the end of the season and the Tigers' lineup.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: I was wrong here yesterday and this pick is no guaranteed one either. Wei-Yin Chen has faltered this season after a strong debut season a year ago. I have to believe that he is not really healthy. Jake Peavy needs to prove his case for the post season. In my mind, he has not done that yet. I am still rooting for Chris Davis though.
• The Rangers over the Rays: This is one of those reverse logic picks. Derek Holland has not pitched well this season and even worse of late. So naturally, he is screaming for me to pick against him. But then he shuts down the Rays and the Rangers score a few off of Chris Archer and foul it all up. I got you.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This is a battle for youngsters trying to make a mark in the Big Leagues. Tyler Thornburg has made a better impression so far than Chris Rusin has. So that is my pick.
• The Astros over the Athletics: This is my upset special of the day. Brad Peacock has won his last two starts and four of his last six decisions. He has elevated his K-rate while lowering his walk rate. Combine those facts with the A's starting journeyman, Greg Reynolds, and you have a recipe for an upset.
• The Royals over the Indians: These two teams beating each other up what I see. They have taken turns winning this series. Bruce Chen has a winning percentage at home over the years over .600 and that is too convincing for me to not pick him over Danny Salazar.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: Adam Wainwright did not pitch well the last time he was at Coors Field. He lives on the curveball and it will not curve as much in that park at that altitude. But the Cardinals are good enough to win a slugfest and I am still not convinced by Tyler Chatwood.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: A win here would clinch the division for the Dodgers. But that day will be postponed a day as Brandon McCarthy has a good game and the random sighting of Stephen Fife doesn't work this time.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Giants over the Mets: The Giants have had their way this series and I expect it to continue tonight. Aaron Harang has Citi Field to help him with dinger-control. But the Giants have Matt Cain on the mound and I think that trumps it.

Yesterday: 10-6

Week: 28-14

Month: 131-106

Season: 1273-1001

Games of the Day: 97-67